| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 12 | 0.00 | +21.13 |
| Season to Date | 20 | 12 | 0.00 | +21.13 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Marlins are for 2 units, Rays are to win 2 units.
Listed pitchers must go.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Miami +104 over N.Y. METS
The Mets are 6-3 while the Marlins are 3-6 and because of these two teams respective starts we find some outstanding value on the 3-6 team against Dillon Gee. Normally we don’t like to fade starters that were buried in their first start of the year but we’re happy to make an exception here because for Gee, disaster starts are going to be the norm rather than the exception. Gee either outperformed or underwhelmed most of last year. Toss in an injury that cost a couple of months and Gee was something of a wildcard in the second half but there’s no denying that good fortune has masked Gee's skills erosion for the better part of the last two years. A lucky 27% hit rate helped Gee outpitch his xERA last season but skills say his ERA should be over 4.00. Gee's K-rate remains steady, but a dip in swing and miss percentage suggests it may not last. Gee’s pre-and post-injury skills were consistently mediocre. His 2012 strikeout rate looks like an outlier, so while his groundball rate and decent control help limit the disasters, the under the hood stats say it’s all downhill from here and now he’ll face a Marlins squad that is heating up at the dish. Miami’s bats were sleeping in the first week of the season but over its last two games they have scored 14 runs on 19 hits.
The Mets have won four straight but the last three came against some weak Philadelphia starters (Jerome Williams, David Buchanan and Aaron Harang). New York is hitting just .239 combined with a weak .343 SLG %. Jared Cosart is an interesting study. He combines an elite groundball rate with a cut fastball that averages 95 mph but it hasn't yet translated to strong skills. Cosart put up a 4.41 ERA with Houston in 2014 before being dealt to Miami at the deadline. He fared better after the trade, (2.39 ERA), but the overall picture still isn't that attractive. Still, there are some strong skills here that are worth keeping an eye on. Cosart’s groundball rate ranked in the top 10 among starting pitchers last year. He's allowed just 12 home runs in 240.1 career innings. Throwing more first pitch strikes led to improved control. In fact, Cosart walked two batters or less in his first nine starts post-trade, before walking eight batters in his final start of the season. Cosart has a fine 2.67 road ERA over 23 career road starts and he gives the Marlins and their bats a much higher win expectation than Gee on the hill behind the Mets’ bats.
Tampa Bay -104 over TORONTO
Chris Archer is a minor tweak away from becoming one of the most dominant starters in the game. The only thing that’s holding him back is his lack of control but he’s walked just two batters in 12.2 innings over his two starts this year so that tweak may have already arrived. With an above-average swing and miss rate and 96 MPH heat, his K-rate is likely to remain high. Archer has also made great strides against left-handed hitters. His dominance from game to game is also increasing. While Archer posted a 43%/35% dominant start/disaster start split in 2013, he was at 56%/13% in 2014. Over his two starts this season, Archer has 10 K’s and an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 59%/15%/26%. Archer is the real deal as long as he continues to throw strikes. So far so good.
Aaron Sanchez cannot be favored over Chris Archer. Sanchez went 2-2 with a 1.09 ERA and three saves in 33 innings for the Blue Jays last season. This elite starting pitcher prospect has struggled to harness his control until his MLB debut out of the pen. However, there’s a huge difference between facing three batters and throwing for one inning than being asked to start and go six solid innings. That makes Sanchez a risky bet as a starter. Sanchez has battled control issues throughout his career and the 53% first-pitch strike he posted in his 33 innings last year casts doubt that those gains were real. He could have serious trouble the second and third time through orders. Sanchez is armed with a lethal fastball that touches 98 MPH, but he isn't generating many whiffs, which is a huge concern and suggests it’s because of a lack of command in his secondary offerings. In his first start of the year, Sanchez walked two and struck out one before getting knocked out in the second inning. He never looked comfortable on the hill. Sanchez has a long ways to go with his secondary pitches and he'll need those far less if he's called upon to produce three outs in the ninth. He projects as far less useful when stretched out like he is here. Sanchez is NOT “starter” ready yet.
