both systems based on,"defense wins championships".
not defense like allowing 2 yrds per play or allowing 100 yrds passing a game.
numbers can be deceiving,rushing yards,passing yards,time of possesion all of which can have an impact on the game,(or not).
a team can rush for 250 yards, pass for 400, hold the ball for 3/4ths of the game and lose 20-10.
these get much simpler and are based on how the teams have played on defense over the year, and in do or die situations(playoffs).
strength of schedule means absolutely nothing as you can't tell which teams are good or bad, hot or cold until the season is 3/4ths over.
system #1..."shutdown system"
take the team which has allowed thier opponents to score 3 points or less the most times during the regular season. if this number is equal between the teams,take the team who has more games in the playoffs where they held thier opponents to 3 or less, if the number of games is still equal, take the points.
this system has went...
24-10-3 ats in all superbowls.....70%
15-3-2 ats in last 20 superbowls..83%
11-1-2 ats in last 14 superbowls..91%
in the last 10 superbowls where one team had a 2 or more game advantage, the outcome of the choice has went 9-1 su and ats with an average score of 35-19.
(a 16 pt margin of victory which coincidently happens to be the same average margin of victory in the superbowl when it is being played off an extra bye week.)
system #2..."defensive consistency"
take the team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they held thier opponents to less than 10 points. if the # of games is equal, take the points.
this system has went...
16-4-2 ats in the last 22 superbowls...80%
9-2-2 ats in the last 13 superbowls....81%
6-0-2 ats in the last 8 superbowls.....100%
both systems are simple and based on the premise that the team who has consistently played better defense over the long haul has done in the superbowl what they've done all year long.
GAME.
[This message was edited by THEGAME9000 on January 25, 2004 at 09:33 PM.]
not defense like allowing 2 yrds per play or allowing 100 yrds passing a game.
numbers can be deceiving,rushing yards,passing yards,time of possesion all of which can have an impact on the game,(or not).
a team can rush for 250 yards, pass for 400, hold the ball for 3/4ths of the game and lose 20-10.
these get much simpler and are based on how the teams have played on defense over the year, and in do or die situations(playoffs).
strength of schedule means absolutely nothing as you can't tell which teams are good or bad, hot or cold until the season is 3/4ths over.
system #1..."shutdown system"
take the team which has allowed thier opponents to score 3 points or less the most times during the regular season. if this number is equal between the teams,take the team who has more games in the playoffs where they held thier opponents to 3 or less, if the number of games is still equal, take the points.
this system has went...
24-10-3 ats in all superbowls.....70%
15-3-2 ats in last 20 superbowls..83%
11-1-2 ats in last 14 superbowls..91%
in the last 10 superbowls where one team had a 2 or more game advantage, the outcome of the choice has went 9-1 su and ats with an average score of 35-19.
(a 16 pt margin of victory which coincidently happens to be the same average margin of victory in the superbowl when it is being played off an extra bye week.)
system #2..."defensive consistency"
take the team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they held thier opponents to less than 10 points. if the # of games is equal, take the points.
this system has went...
16-4-2 ats in the last 22 superbowls...80%
9-2-2 ats in the last 13 superbowls....81%
6-0-2 ats in the last 8 superbowls.....100%
both systems are simple and based on the premise that the team who has consistently played better defense over the long haul has done in the superbowl what they've done all year long.
GAME.
[This message was edited by THEGAME9000 on January 25, 2004 at 09:33 PM.]
