| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.08 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 19 | 0.00 | +10.84 |
| Season to Date | 20 | 19 | 0.00 | +10.84 |
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All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Miami +106 over PHILADELPHIA
It’s not customary for us to play on cold teams, as the Marlins have now dropped six straight but we’ll make an exception here because Kyle Kendrick is not worthy of being a price against anyone. Kendrick’s last game came at home against the Brewers where he was tagged for nine hits, six runs and two jacks in five innings. Kendrick’s skills look like those of a back-end starter, nothing more. He has excellent control and improved it in 2013 but a lack of strikeouts continue to hamper his long-term outlook. There’s not much more than meets the eye with Kendrick. Without a big strikeout pitch or plus velocity (his sinker tops out at 89 mph), there’s lots of hard contact against him. His WHIP (1.40) in 2013 was at an unacceptable level and he’s right back at that level in his two starts this year. Kendrick may have some value as a dog but as a favorite in his home park, he has none.
Henderson Alvarez is just 24 years old and is close to become a relevant pitcher at this level. Alvarez continues to fascinate. Though his strikeout rates are low, his velocity is not. Alvarez’s average sinker speed in 2013 (which he throws 59% of the time) was 92.6 mph. He also flashed a mid-90’s fastball, good command and a high groundball tilt. His lack of more than one swing-and-miss pitch hinders his short-term upside but his heavy fastball and improving slider makes him worthy of backing in certain situations. In his two starts this year, despite being tagged for 13 hits and four runs in 8.2 frames, Alvarez’s strong 59%/22%/19% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile reveals his upside even more, making him and the Fish very worthy of taking back a tag.
Pittsburgh +107 over MILWAUKEE
Despite being the hottest team in baseball, we can’t get on board with Kyle Lohse spotting a price because Lohse is on the verge of a blowup. Lohse has never been a dominant pitcher but because of his excellent control and ability to keep hitters off balance, he’s been able to win games consistently and pitch close to or more than 200 innings in each of the last three seasons. However, in his two starts this year that control has abandoned him, as Lohse has walked 7 batters in 12 frames. His hit and strand rates the past two years are mildly lucky and explain the gap between ERA (3.23) and xERA (4.15). In his two starts this year, Lohse’s strand and hit rates are normal and the result is his 4.50 ERA in two starts. Also note that Lohse has an alarming 1.58 ERA in those two starts. With three plus years of a lot of good fortune, Lohse’s lack of good skills are a sure thing to cause more blowups this year than he’s seen since his regular blowups from 2001 to 2010. Additionally, current Pirates have never been fooled by Lohse, as they have 55 hits in 161 career AB’s against him for a BA of .342.
Charlie Morton increased his four-seam fastball velocity by five mph from 2012 to 2013, the highest increase of any starter in MLB. His skills in the second half of 2013 featured solid command and the highest groundball rate in the game at 62%. Morton continues to work harder than any pitcher in the game in an attempt to improve his craft. Last season, Morton had one of the best curveballs in the NL (16% swinging strike rate) but he had a sub-7% swinging strike rate on all of his other pitches. He’s improved in that area too this season, as his swinging K rate is 11% and he’s already struck out 11 batters in 12 innings while walking just two. With his arm strength returning in full-force in 2013 and showing no signs of trouble this year,, Charlie Morton is a legit breakout target and offers up way more value as a pooch than Kyle Lohse does as the favorite.
