| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 8 | 4 | 0.00 | +7.92 |
| Season to Date | 18 | 9 | 0.00 | +17.38 |
#612 GEORGIA TECH +6 -106 over Louisville
4:00 PM EST. Louisville is 15-3 overall, they’re 4-1 in the conference and they’re ranked #17 in the nation. One of our favorite angles is to fade over-ranked and overpriced teams when they’re favored on the road against an unranked opponent. Louisville’s out-of-conference schedule ranked 310 out of 351 Division I schools. Most of those games for Louisville were nothing more than a glorified practice but that’s what Rick Pitino does. Pitino schedules soft games against weak opponents to skew the numbers, skew his team’s record and get his team noticed so that when Selection Sunday rolls around, the Cardinals get a better seeding than they should. Louisville’s victories came against dreg after dreg after dreg. The first real team that the Cardinals faced was Michigan State and they lost by four. That loss looks a lot worse today than it did when it occurred back on December 2. The next decent opponent that Louisville faced was Kentucky and once against the Cardinals lost. Louisville’s other loss was against Clemson. Louisville’s eight-point win over Wake is more proof of just how beatable the Cardinals are, as that game was tied with 2½ minutes remaining. Wake was a 19-point pooch to North Carolina this past week and today it is a 13½-point dog to Miami/Florida.
Let us point out that Louisville was not ranked in the preseason polls. Four double-digit scorers are gone from last year’s squad that reached the Final Four. That leaves sophomore guard Quentin Snider and his 4.1 points per game from last season as the top returning scorer. That’s not to say that Louisville is void of talent. Trey Lewis is a graduate transfer from Cleveland State who is averaging 12.1 points already and Damion Lee is a grad transfer as well. Lee comes from Drexel where he averaged 21.4 points per game, ranking fourth in all of Division I basketball and he’s the Cardinals leading scorer this year. Still, Louisville is not the 17th best team in the country and they’re probably not even a top-30 team. However, they’re priced like an elite team because they’re ranked and they’re winning games and this market eats up wins and ranked teams. We now get an inflated price because if it. Pick: Georgia Tech +6 -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Georgia Tech is 11-7 overall and 1-4 in the conference, which isn’t pretty but what that record doesn’t tell you is that Tech’s strength of schedule ranks 25th in the country. The Yellow Jackets have a four-point home victory over then #4 Virginia. They also have victories over VCU, Tennessee and Arkansas among their out-of-conference wins. They have two, one-point losses and an eight-point loss at #2 North Carolina. Of Tech’s seven losses, five have been by eight points or less and three of those have been by five points or less. This is a Tech team with many good qualities that help win ball games. The Yellow Jackets +5 assist to turnover ratio and only 10 turnovers per game strongly suggests this matchup isn’t over their heads. Ball security is a key to defeating Louisville. Last season, a much stronger Cardinals team came into Tech’s house and won by one-point, 52-51. This year, the Cardinals may not be so lucky. Don’t be afraid to play Tech straight up in a small parlay or two either. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
#660 PEPPERDINE +140 over BYU
8:00 PM EST. The Cougars of BYU are 14-6 overall and they’re third in the West Coast behind St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. BYU has won five of its past six games. Included in that slate of games is a victory over #25 Gonzaga. That’s a notable victory by this visitor that has influence on the market and it’s something we’ll try and exploit. First, the Cougars one-point victory over Gonzaga was simply one of those matchup problems for the Zags. That certainly won’t be the case here, as Pepperdine’s Stacey Davis and Lamond Murray, Jr. figure to give BYU fits all game long. Furthermore, this will be the Cougars fourth consecutive game on the road and not only is that a rarity at this level, it’s extremely difficult to overcome. Home teams win 73% of all games that are priced evenly and this is one of those evenly priced games.
The market will see that BYU defeated Gonzaga while Pepperdine lost to the Zags by 26 points. If it were that easy, we’d all be rich but unfortunately it doesn’t quite work that way. That game was over a month ago and the Waves are a better team now than they were then. Pepperdine has won five of six, which includes a victory over St. Mary’s. The Waves are 8-0 at home this season and their strength of schedule ranks higher than BYU’s, both overall and out of conference. Pepperdine went 2-0 versus the Cougars last season so they’re not being asked to perform a trick they don’t already know how to do, only this year the host is in a much better scheduling spot and they may not even be the inferior squad. You want value? Don’t BUY BYU. Waves outright is the call. Pick: Pepperdine +140
