| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.86 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 33 | 0.00 | +13.14 |
| Season to Date | 60 | 67 | 0.00 | +21.72 |
Both play are 2 units.
Boston +102 over VANCOUVER
OT included. The Bruins will play their third game in four days and tail-end of back to-backs all on the Canadian West Coast. The market puts too much weight on that being a liability, which works in our favor because it mens very little. Boston lost the first two games of this trip to Edmonton and Calgary but they both occurred in OT. Boston is playing well. You would be hard-pressed to find a team in the NHL that is creating more chance than the B’s these days. Boston fired away 38 shots last night on Calgary and 40 on Edmonton on Wednesday. Its top two lines are flying out there. The B’s have picked up points in seven straight and in eight of their past nine. They have surrendered just one PP goal over their last 25 kills, which bodes well against Vancouver because that is one of the very few ways that Vancouver can win. Boston figures to leave it all on the table here in an attempt to close out this trip with a victory before returning home to face Nashville.
There are two ways to lose to Vancouver. One way we have already covered. You stay out of the box or you kill whatever minors are called against you. The Sedin twins work the power-play like nobody else and that is when they are most dangerous. The other way to lose to the Canucks is to allow its only productive line to score goals. You take away that one line and the Canucks win expectation drops dramatically. That blueprint is making its way around the league. Vancouver has scored two or less in four straight and in five of its last seven. One of those games in which they scored more than two occurred against Chicago when they scored six times on 20 shots. The Canucks have three wins over their last 15 games and the only way they’ll beat the Bruins is if Tuukka Rask has a poor outing or if the B’s are flat. More importantly, however, is win expectation and in that regard, Boston’s win expectation is greater than Vancouver’s and that sets up this true value play.
DETROIT -1½ +286 over Nashville
OT included. Detroit is on fire. The Red Wings have picked up points in nine straight games and have scored four goals or more in four of their last six. Detroit’s turnaround after a sloppy start coincided with Pavel Datsyuk’s return, which is why he’ll go down as one of the greatest leaders this game has even seen. Detroit has fired away 44 and 46 shots over their last two games and anything close to that here will get us to the cashier’s window.
We’re not going to go over this every time Nashville plays but our attack on Pekka Rinne will go on. Nashville is coming off a 2-1 loss to Florida. The Panthers scored twice on 15 overall shots with three of those being termed quality chances. The one quality chance the Panthers missed on rang off the post, as Rinne moved 1½ seconds after hearing it ring off the post. He was clearly beaten. Rinne’s save percentage against Florida was .875. His save percentages in five of his last six games are as follows: .875, 867, .842, .852, and .824. Since Nov. 20, Rinne has a goals against average of 4.25 and a save percentage of .862. Both marks are the worst in the NHL since that time. Some will argue that it is just a slump but we have been insisting since the first day of the season that Rinne is finished. He is extremely slow and cannot react in time to the speed or pace of the game anymore and it’s only going to get worse. Lay the cheap price (-108) if you want but we’re going in for the kill because we are so confident is our assessment of Rinne. This one is the biggest goaltender mismatch of the day and we’re not going to miss it. It’s actually amusing how nobody thinks Rinne is a problem for Nashville. The Preds have two wins in their last eight games and it’s all because of Rinne.
