| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.76 |
| Last 30 Days | 25 | 28 | 0.00 | +7.64 |
| Season to Date | 25 | 28 | 0.00 | +7.64 |
Both are for 2 units
Philadelphia +140 over VANCOUVER
OT included. There is no question that we underestimated the Canucks before the season started. They’re a hard-working, difficult team to play against that is also collectively difficult to move off the puck. If the opposition doesn’t bring their best effort against Vancouver, chances are they are going to end the evening with a “L”. The Canucks just whacked the Canadiens, 5-1. They have now picked up five out of a possible six points over their last three games with only loss over that span occurring against the red-hot Stars in OT. That said, the Canucks cannot be in this price against Philadelphia. We underestimated them, yes, but not by this much. Vancouver figures to be a profitable underdog but as the chalk in this range, they must be faded. Prior to winning three straight, Vancouver lost four straight to St. Louis, Edmonton, Washington and Detroit. They were also the first team to lose to Calgary and the first team to defeat Montreal. That’s a sample of what we’re likely to see from them all season, that being inconsistency. The Canucks are likely a fringe playoff contender, no more, more less.
Philadelphia’s stock is low after three straight losses including two to Buffalo. Once again, we can use the market’s perception of Buffalo to get an inflated price on a team that just played them. The Flyers are still 2-1 against top-10 teams and 3-2 against top-16 teams. They have a 3-0 victory over Chicago and deserved a better fate in a 2-1 loss to Dallas. They also have victories over Boston and the Rangers. Philly will now play the second game of a five-game trip. The final four games of said trip are in Western Canada (Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg) and begin here. This is a crucial four games for the Flyers that can set them back a long way should they fail to deliver at least two wins. One has to figure that the Flyers intensity and focus will be sky high here. The Flyers are not an easy out by any means. They rank first in shots on net per game, which likely means that Ryan Miller is going to have to be really good tonight. The Flyers defense needs some improvement but that’s an argument for when they are favored. For this one game, Philly is absolutely worthy of playing at this price.
TORONTO +145 over Dallas
Dallas is red-hot right now with eight wins in their past nine games. They also have the hottest line in hockey and perhaps the best line too. One would think that this is a daunting task for the 1-9 Maple Leafs and the market agrees with that assessment but we’re not so sure. For one, Dallas is vulnerable with average goaltending at best and they have allowed 15 goals against in their past four victories. They are not going maintain this winning pace when they are allowing so many goals and scoring opportunities against. The Stars are going to have to show us this consistency for a lot longer than a month before we’ll tryst them at this price on the road. Good team for sure, and perhaps even a Cup contender but let’s see them for more than a dozen games before being priced as an elite team.
We’re going to dip into this Toronto well one more time because the price is right and we’re not convinced that the Maple Leafs are even close to being as bad as their record indicates.
A money-puck player refers to anyone whose true talent has been overlooked for one reason or another. This can include older or undersized players, those who were bought out or went undrafted, players coming off of major injuries, those who competed outside the NHL last year, or who may have had chemistry issues on their previous NHL teams, and perhaps just a dose of bad luck. Hockey analytics can help identify these money-puck players by establishing the other side of the equation -- their performance. After all, these are the types of players who, by definition, find ways to contribute that goes beyond what everybody can see in the scoresheet. Specifically, the following five categories are areas where a player's true value is commonly overlooked.
1) The ability to take on top opponents, and in both zones
2) Being able to drive possession to the point where the team is more likely to have the puck with this player on the ice, than without
3) While potentially not getting the opportunities to rack up strong overall scoring totals, there's scoring at a top-six level on a per-minute basis, or top-four level for defensemen
4) Serving as a primary or secondary option on both the power play and the penalty kill
5) Finding other ways to contribute -- whether it's in the shootout, in the faceoff circle, or whether it's all about throwing hits, drawing penalties, and/or blocking shots.
It's fair to say that the Maple Leafs were originally quite skeptical about the value of hockey analytics, but they were obviously listening. Give this organization credit, because when the team collapsed as predicted late in the 2013-14 season, Toronto quickly changed course. The new direction basically began last July, when the team hired 28-year-old Kyle Dubas as assistant general manager. Dubas quickly built a hockey analytics team that included Darryl Metcalf, the man behind the incomparable Extra Skater online statistical database, prominent hockey analytics pundit Cam Charron, and the equally clever Rob Pettapiece.
This new team got started right away. Rather than sign players like Dave Bolland and David Clarkson for a combined $8.65 million, as they had the previous summer, the Maple Leafs used just $5.0 million in cap space to secure Petri Kontiola, Mike Santorelli, David Booth, and Daniel Winnik -- and an additional $5.95 million longer term for Stephane Robidas and Leo Komarov. While not all those moves worked, the cap hits were small enough that the players involved could be easily shipped out and replaced for picks and prospects.
This year, given the great value signings of Daniel Winnik, P.A. Parenteau, Mark Arcobello and Matt Hunwick, not to mention Nazem Kadri's extension, the shrewd acquisition of Martin Marincin, and the value signing of Shawn Matthias, the Leafs have obviously chosen to continue to gravitate more toward these types of analytics-friendly, money-puck moves. The Maple Leafs also hired quality coaches that the players are working hard for. After years playing in their own end, without the puck, and relying on superior shooting or goaltending to see them through, the Leafs began this season with a roster full of possession-driving players. This newfound adoption of analytics and money-puck players achieved immediate dividends on the ice but not in the win column. Toronto is a top-10 possession team and after being near at the bottom of the league for years, they are 12th in shots allowed per game. In their first 12 games, Toronto has rarely been out-chanced or outworked. The Leafs low shooting percentage, which is on the wrong side of extreme poor luck, is the reason they are not scoring goals. The chances are there and it’s only a matter of time before the Leafs start winning games at a much higher clip than they now. Toronto won’t make the playoffs and they don’t have great players but this is not a bad hockey that is definitely moving in the right direction under a strong new regime.
