| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 37 | 48 | 0.00 | +4.20 |
| Season to Date | 183 | 262 | 0.00 | -43.44 |
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Both plays are for 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Oakland -1½ +147 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. Kendall Graveman fits the profile of a young unheralded starting pitcher since he doesn't have top-shelf raw stuff or a top-prospect pedigree. What he does do however, is keep the ball on the ground at a high rate (54%), and his stuff is starting to miss bats at a higher rate (11% swing and miss since the break). Graveman has two legitimate strikeout pitches now: 19% swing and miss rate with his slider, 15% swing and miss rate on his cutter. He’ll now face a Chicago nine that has seven wins in their past 20 games with most of those losses being of the ugly variety. All that said, this one is once again all about fading James Shields.
James Shields had a nice five-game stretch (1.78 ERA) from June 29th to July 21st but it was all smoke and mirrors so pay no attention to it whatsoever. Over his last 23 innings, Shields has walked 10 batters while whiffing a lousy 11. In his last start, Shields’ struck out nobody and was gone by the third inning after allowing 10 hits and seven runs. Shields’ was not throwing worse in his last start than when he had success during that aforementioned five-game stretch. He was just getting lucky then. When he first joined the White Sox, Shields pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.00. Shields’ continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He’s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they’ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields’ putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he’ll be taken yard today again. Shields’ has given up six jacks in his last 4.1 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can lay less than 40 cents, it’s a great bet. This is the worst starter in baseball and it’s not even close. We’ll spot the extra half run here and take back a sweet price.
TAMPA BAY +121 over Texas
7:10 PM EST. It’s not just baseball; it’s in every sport that you must pay a premium to back contending teams down the stretch when they are playing non-contenders. What makes this one even more interesting is that the ever-recognizable and popular Cole Hamels is going up against a rather unknown in Matt Andriese. The line looks short, which is precisely what the oddsmakers want you to believe.
Hamels needs no introductions. He’s the ace of this Rangers staff, which isn’t saying much but he would be the ace of the rotation on 80% of the teams in this league. Thing is, Hamels is not immune to a poor outing. His first-pitch strike rate of 57% is weak and that rate is at 53% over his last five starts. He’s no cinch either, as the Rangers have dropped two of his last three starts. If you were thinking Rangers here, you would be selling low on Rays’ starter, Matt Andriese. That might be a mistake.
Unheralded former 3rd round pick Matt Andriese has followed up his solid, but unspectacular, 2015 MLB debut by posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so far in 2016. That’s still selling this kid short because of his surging indicators. Andriese’s strikeout rate in the minors in 2015 (9.6 K’s/9) and 2016 (11.5 K’s/9) hints at a recently revved up arsenal, and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 14% and 16% in his last start. Over his last 21 innings, Andriese has 22 K’s. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone and gets ahead early in the count (72% first-pitch strike rate) and stays there.
He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%) and he has also done a nice job of limiting home run damage in 2016. Andriese has 93 MPH heat with life. He has walked just two batters over his last 21 frames and has walked just 18 all season in 86 frames. You would be hard-pressed to find a starter in the majors that is in better form right now than Matt Andriese and his underlying stats scream out that it isn’t a fluke. Rangers obviously can win here but they’re without question the most overvalued play on today’s board.
