| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 6 | 4 | 0.00 | +3.58 |
| Season to Date | 7 | 4 | 0.00 | +5.58 |
Both plays are 2.1 units to win 2
Incarnate Word +7 -105 over ST. JOHN'S
We have covered the Johnnies three times already in this space this year against Rutgers, Vanderbilt and Fordham and have cashed all three times. The Johnnies, however, have played 10 games and they’re 7-3 after a big upset win over Syracuse last time out as a 10-point underdog. Picking spots to fade the Johnnies was high on our priority list before the season began and so our attack on them will continue here after that aforementioned win over the Orange. That victory over Syracuse gives St. John’s market credibility again, which makes us instant sellers. Let us remind you that the Johnnies have been outplayed for long stretches already this year by Wagner, Rutgers, the Silverswords of Chaminade and St. Francis. They were also destroyed by Fordham on December 2. Prior to defeating Syracuse, St. Johns beat Niagara but they won only because Niagara could not hit a shot. The Johnnies won 48-44 but failed to cover as a 9-point favorite. St. John’s has been favored five times this season against some weak competition and they’re 1-4 ATS. Against Chaminade, they allowed 93 points against in a 100-93 victory but once again did not cover. Their only cover was in their first game of the season against Wagner. St. John’s won 66-57 as a 5½-point favorite but it was a lucky cover that occurred right at the end of the game. St. John’s is going to get destroyed by strong competition and they are going to get upset by any team with a pulse. For first time readers of this section, we will reiterate that Chris Mullen inherited a group whose top returning scorer averaged 1½-points per game last year. Seven players from last year’s squad transferred out of St. Johns so spotting 7-points with this group cannot be recommended.
Incarnate Word sounds more like a bookstore than it does a Division I program. The Cardinals come out of the Southland Conference, which is the same conference that sent giant killer, Stephen A. Austin to the dance the past two years. You may remember that the Lumberjacks knocked out VCU two years ago and gave Utah a huge scare in round one last year. In any case, the Cardinals come into this season in their second year of the four year transition period to Division I. They will not be eligible for the NCAA Tournament until the 2017-18 season, but so far they have shown they can be competitive. Their first year was an impressive 21-6 season that included a 9-5 mark in Southland play.Last season they started appearing on non-Southland schedules and notched some good wins. They won at Princeton by 11 and they stunned Nebraska 74-73 in Lincoln. The Cardinals bring back some good pieces from last year that includes Derail Green, Jontrell Walker and Kyle Hittle. Green was a redshirt on the Wichita State team that went to the Final Four and had regular minutes the following season when they were undefeated before losing in the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are paying their dues this year also. They have already played #21 Purdue and #7 Oklahoma. Two games ago they played in California and gave the Golden Bears a scare they won’t soon forget. Incarnate Wood and Cal were tied at the half and with four minutes remaining the Golden Bears had a slim four-point lead. The Cardinals have made 10 steals or more in every game this season and they had 13 against the Bears. The Cardinals can not only stay well within this range, they can win this one outright but we’re more than happy to take the points.
BYU -12½ -105 over Central Michigan
The first inclination here might be to grab the points when you consider BYU’s massive turnover from last year’s team that earned a trip to the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. In fact, 10 players from that Cougars team is out so spotting double-digits with this team against a Chippewas team that has won three of four and is 5-4 overall may seem like a bit of a stretch. It’s not. Central Michigan greatly overachieved last year. They won the MAC West with a 12-6 mark after going 3-15 the year before. The Chips bring back almost the exact same team as last year with only one player from the 10-man rotation, Austin Keel, departing. Many analysts suggest that the Chips are the team to beat this year in the MAC and while that may be true, the MAC is weaker this year than it has been for quite some time. Furthermore, the Chips have played nine cupcakes to open the year and there is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak competition. CMU has already lost to Grand Canyon, Milwaukee, Western Kentucky and Weber State. Its wins have come against Jacksonville State, Alma, McNeese State, Aquinas College and Texas Southern. The best team in that group is Western Kentucky and the Chips lost that one, 88-60. That was on a neutral floor. In its only true road game of the year, CMU lost at Grand Canyon. The Chips are 0-1 on the road and 0-3 on a neutral floor. Don’t get caught up in the Chips strong season, (we use that term loosely), from a year ago. It was simply a team that overachieved and because of it, they are overvalued.
Even with a massive amount of turnover, the Cougars could very well be better than they were a year ago. Coach Dave Rose has done an amazing job juggling the talent and putting together some very, very good teams. The problem last year was size and now this team suddenly has a slew of experienced options. Jamal Aytes, if healthy, will provide a big boost to the frontcourt. The 6-6 forward was a pretty highly regarded recruit coming out of high school when he signed with UNLV, but he has not been able to stay healthy to show what he can do. Kyle Davis comes to BYU from Utah State and previously Southern Utah. Two years ago with the Aggies, the 6-8 forward averaged 9.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. Alan Hamson, Jakob Hartsock and Braiden Shaw will add more options in the frontcourt. Hartsock is the one who could make an impact right away. The backcourt has plenty of potential new weapons as well. In fact, Cooper Ainge, Jordan Chatman, Nick Emery and Zac Selijaas are all capable of making a splash this season. As a 6-7 guard, Selijaas is an interesting prospect who can play multiple positions. Emery is a former Mr. Basketball in the state of Utah and can score in bunches. BYU is just 6-3 this season but they have already played Utah, Utah State and Colorado. Nate Austin is why BYU had to play so small last year. Austin is back and the 6-11, 245 pound sixth year senior will get right back in the paint and do the dirty work. With more options in the frontcourt and two experienced seniors in the backcourt, BYU will be a tough team to beat, especially at home where they figure to do their most damage. Add this weak traveling CMU squad to the list of teams that are about to find out how tough the Cougars really are. Lay the points.
