At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
We have three Road to the Kentucky Derby points races on tap on Saturday, and after some early handicapping it may be tough to find some value.
Classic Empire is the 3-5 morning line favorite for the $350,000 Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park taking on eight foes as he makes his three-year-old debut.
The colt won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to cap off his 2016 season, earning the Eclipse Award for top two-year-old. He is the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
El Areeb is the 6-5 morning line favorite in the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. The colt rolled to a 11 ¼ length victory in the mud in the Jerome (G3) in his first trip on the inner track at the Big A.
The $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita drew a disappointing field of just five and three of them are trained by Doug O’Neill.
The Jerry Hollendorfer trained Sheer Flattery is the 2-1 morning line favorite. It is strange to say this but the Lewis might be the toughest of the three races to come up with the winner despite the compact field.
I will have selections for all three of the Derby preps in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Clm $16,000N3L (12:35 ET)
#1 Rare Mix 10-1
#8 Voila La Victoire 9-5
#6 Celtic Embrace 4-1
#3 Break Away 5-2
Analysis: Rare Mix showed improvement last out in a fourth-place finish in her second start off the long layoff for the Sheppard barn. She dueled for the early lead and faded to finish eighth two back off a 17-month layoff. She broke her maiden on turf at Penn in her debut back in '14 and cold be sitting on a good one here third off the bench. Juarez picks up the call and we should catch a decent price on this mare who has four sibs that have won on turf and two of her sibs are stakes winners.
Voila La Victoire has been the beaten favorite in three of her last four starts. She was off a step slow last out and made a god late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out here. She looks headed in the right direction for the Albertrani barn but her price is going to end up on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,3,6,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,2,3,6,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 9 Md $50,000 (4:32 ET)
#2 Carbon Data 3-1
#5 Songeur 12-1
#9 Hawk 4-1
#6 More Alex 8-1
Analysis: Carbon Data is a $275,000 Ocala purchase making his debut for the Brown barn that is 18% winners with first time starters. The colt is by Birdstone out of the turf stakes winner Penny Marie ($351,830) who has dropped five winners including a trio of turf winners, top earner stakes winner Centrique ($461,955). Solid looking works on the morning tab and Castellano takes the call.
Songeur drops in for a tag here for his second career start for the Pletcher barn. The colt was off a beat slow and never a threat in his debut here, checking in eighth. He comes back with blinkers added for a barn that has been hot all meet and hits at a 32% clip (with a +ROI) overall with second out maidens. The colt is out of an Affirmed mare that has dropped four winners and two are turf winners with three being stakes winners, top earner In Tune ($229,350).
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,6,9
TRI: 2,5 / 2,5,6,9 / 1,2,5,6,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Rare Mix 10-1
R3: #3 Randy Sr 8-1
R4: #8 Arien’s Prospect 10-1
R4: #6 Red Cotton 8-1
R6: #7 Angels Seven 20-1
R7: #8 Catnapped 15-1
R7: #6 S S Illuminati 8-1
R9: #5 Songeur 12-1
R9: #6 More Alex 8-1
R10: #4 Chia Ghost 8-1
R11: #11 Feel Proud 8-2
Good luck today!