2/15 SUNDAY NCAA Hoops

[BlackampGold]

After losing another game by a 1/2 point when Arkansas lost by 7, I am jumping on one play for tommorrow before I lose the hook:


Nebraska +2.5 3.30/3.00

Nebraska has the #1 Big 12 defense, are an excellent shooting team including #1 in 3-pointers & #2 in 3-point field goals made. They shoot over 70% from the free-throw line and are 11-2 overall at home. Looks like a nice recipe to beat Kansas who has had their troubles on the road.

 

[BlackampGold]

Updating my record before I turn in after I grinded out +3.66 units for the day thanks to the Stanford game.


Plays range 1-3 units

YTD = 208-200-9 50.98% -19.81U


Leans - NC, NC State

 

[BlackampGold]

I found another strong play for me and since I strained my back yesterday and can hardly move, I have some time to give you my thoughts on the game:

North Carolina -7 3.21/3.00

1st factor is revenge - Maryland beat the Tarheels in Maryland 90-84. If you look closely at that game, Maryland shot 54% which is 10 points higher than their season average. What you should also take note is that they let NC to score 84 points on Maryland's turf. Statistically, Maryland is the better defensive team today but NC already scored 84 and Maryland allowed 93 and 81 points @ Wake & G Tech. NC is going to score a ton of points in this game and if Maryland resorts to anything close to their season average in FG% they will not keep up on the road. Two more distinct disadvantages for Maryland in this game are - 1) NC is #1 in ACC in turnover margin(#1 in steals) at +4.35 compared to Maryland's +1.45. 2) Huge free throw disparity as NC is 68.4% and Maryland is 60.8%. NC just finished 3 games with Duke, Wake, & G Tech. They should find the goings a little easier today.

 

[BlackampGold]

UConn/Pitt UNDER 134 2.14/2.00

133 points were scored in the first matchup at UConn. Pitt should be able to dictate tempo on their home floor and that means a half-court ball control type game. Both teams are very good defensive rebounding teams so there will not be too many second chance buckets. Pitt allows 56 PPG(#1 in Big East) & UConn 63.5 PPG(#4 in BE). UConn's opponnets shoot only 36.4% and Pitt's 38.8%. Here is the #1 reason why this is a good play and also probably why neither of these teams will go all the way: Pitt shoots a poor 62.3% from the foul line and UConn is even worse at 59.4%. This is a big factor in what will surely be a physical game.

 

[BlackampGold]

I have not played more than 3 units on a game all season as I believe in sound money management but sometimes you just have to go out on a limb and take a shot. I just love North Carolina today so I hit them again. I can easily live with losing this one but I feel this has DD win written all over it.

**NC play is now -

NC -7 6.42/6.00

 

[oldmanTED]

B&G:

Good luck on your plays today. I responded to your thread on North Carolina. Great write-up and you will get no argument from this oldman. Hope you hit the total and that Pitt comes out on top today.

 

[BlackampGold]

Ted - Thank you very much for the kind words. I am going to treat myself to a pizza and settle in for what I hope is a big Panthers win today.

 

[BlackampGold]

Okay guys, big win for Pitt today for me as a fan and big win on Nebraska as an investor. Ridiculous last 4 minutes in Pitt game cost me the under, BIG NC play still pending. I have one more strong play today:

Duke/NC State UNDER 139 3.21/3.00

The first matchup in Duke resulted in a total of 133 points. In this game, Duke shot 51%from the field including 57% from the trifecta, both significantly higher than their average. Basically, they went on a tear to start the game with the Cameron Crazies. NC State was just slightly below their average with 45% shooting. And remember, we only had 133 in this game. Duke only allows 60.2 PPG and NC State 62.6 PPG. To illustrate further, there is one other ACC team who "brings it" on the defensive end of the floor - Florida State who is ranked right between these two in the conference. Duke beat FSU 56-49(105 points) and NC State beat FSU 58-53(111 points). Investing in the under when two very good defensive teams is usually a good proposition. **Note - It did not work out that way with Pitt/UConn but I won't let that deter me. One more thing - the public who lost today on Kansas for example will be looking to chase....86% at BigGuy and 81% at Wagerline are on the OVER. That doesn't hurt the case for this play at all.

Good luck everyone!

 

[BlackampGold]

I had a good day but I am so fed up with losing totals from the constant fouling at the end of games. I am either going to avoid totals or look at first half totals only. Won both sides totaling 9 units but gave a bunch back with the two totals. I am going to be much more selective with the plays from here on out as well. As the season progresses the lines are sharper and my system plays aren't hitting as frequently. Quantity is going to take a back seat to quality. I should have taken this philosophy about three weeks ago but anyways...


2-2 +3.65U

Plays range 1-3 units

YTD = 210-202-9 50.97% -16.16U

 

[Kojak]

Black & Gold,

I feel your pain and have been there. You make good point on 1st half totals. Maybe the better bet. Best of luck.

 

[lewis]

Great job today!!!!!!

Nice call on NC!!!!!

GL

lewis

 

[BlackampGold]

Kojak & Lewis - Thanks guys, I should just be happy that I have had two winning days in a row which hasn't been a norm as of late. Let's have a great week fellas!