Pulled this from another site. Total plagarism. Thought this would help though.
Great game in San Antonio last night, which puts the Lakers in the drivers seat. My question is: Can the Lakers beat the Spurs 4 straight times? Of course being at home will help, but the question is valid. Look past all the hoopla and ask yourself. Are the Lakers THAT much better than the Spurs? Here's what history has to say:
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LLWWW @ VVHHV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team losing Games 1-2 on the road, winning Games 3-4 at home, and winning Game 5 on the road (Los Angeles) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2004 NHL Quarterfinals round and the 2004 NBA Preliminary round:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 14-8 (.636)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 3-3 (.500)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
series record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 0-2 (.000)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 11-11 (.500)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Qtrs round: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, NBA only, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, NBA only, Qtrs round: 0-2 (.000)
The situation outlined above, has only occurred TWICE in NBA playoff history. Surprisingly it was the ROAD team that won game 6 AND went on to win the series. Granted, two games is not much of a sample, but it's still interesting. For a broader search, look at the game 6 record for all sports: 11-11. 50/50 proposition. All this adds up to strong consideration to the Spurs moneyline in game 6.