1st week ats results

United · Sep 15, 2009

Fav's ats 8-8
Dogs ats 8-8

over/Under 8-8

How do you beat that for a first week?

Home teams won 9-7.

Home teams went 6-10 ats

Visitors 10-6 ats

points mattered in 5 games this week: Giants, Colts, Pitt, Pats, Chargers

Thta's 5 pretty good NFL teams that won but didn't cover the jacked up spreads.

Good luck next week

WormyPix · Sep 15, 2009

Wow, I suppose if you took out the Monday night magic, the fav's would've been 8-6. The Man definitely made $ back tonight. To me, the only dog's that seemed obvious to cover was SF, WAS, NYJ, JAX, and TEN. DEN & tonight's games were kinda brutal.

And I think Ace Ace brought up several times that the fav overall doesn't cover as much as you'd think in NFL. So this is right on. However, when do you know the weekends that a lot of fav's cover, and the one when dog's rule?

United · Sep 15, 2009

Wormy Pix said:
Wow, I suppose if you took out the Monday night magic, the fav's would've been 8-6. The Man definitely made $ back tonight. To me, the only dog's that seemed obvious to cover was SF, WAS, NYJ, JAX, and TEN. DEN & tonight's games were kinda brutal.

And I think Ace Ace brought up several times that the fav overall doesn't cover as much as you'd think in NFL. So this is right on. However, when do you know the weekends that a lot of fav's cover, and the one when dog's rule?

2008:

Here's what 2008 looked like, ly it appears fav's controlled first 3 weeks

Fav's vs dog's

week 1: 10-6
week 2: 8-5-2 one game played at a different date
week 3: 10-6
week 4: 7-6
week 5: 7-7
week 6: 6-8
week 7: 6-8
week 8: 7-7
week 9: 5-9
week 10 6-8
week 11: 8-8
week 12: 10-5-1
week 13: 7-8
week 14: 9-7
week 15: 5-10-1
week 16: 5-11
week 17: 10-6

total: 126-125-5 now that's pretty dam sharp, and were supposed to beat this?

WormyPix · Sep 16, 2009

It can be done, United. Which is why I prefer to limit my plays to one big one, and a few action plays with a teaser thrown in for good measure.

But you're right. That's why those Vegas linesmakers' get paid the big bucks.

United · Sep 22, 2009

Fav's ats: 8-8
dog's ats: 8-8

over/under: 9-7

Home teams went 7-9
home teams went 6-10 ats

second week in a row that happened

points mattered in 1 game: Washington

After 2 weeks: 16-16 ats over/under 17-15
home teams straight up: 16-16
home teams ats: 12-22
points that mattered: 6 games

WormyPix · Sep 22, 2009

Man, pts that mattered, that's one stat Ace Ace also brought up before. Just gotta try to pick the SU winner in NFL. I'm sure that'll change from wk to wk, but very interesting trends for 1st 2 wks.

Keep this thread going, United, let's see what comes out of this.

United · Sep 22, 2009

Wormy Pix said:
Man, pts that mattered, that's one stat Ace Ace also brought up before. Just gotta try to pick the SU winner in NFL. I'm sure that'll change from wk to wk, but very interesting trends for 1st 2 wks.

Keep this thread going, United, let's see what comes out of this.

Week 3 last year was a very big one for the fav's.

Getting ready to post college ats for the first 3 weeks.

WormyPix · Sep 22, 2009

Yeah, biggest until the last wk, 10-6.

A lot of weak teams were on the road that wk, however. This yr's Wk 3 is almost the opposite, with a lot of strong teams on the road. PIT, WAS, GB, NYG, NO, CHI, & DEN are all road fav's. So could this be a big wk for fav's, or a great wk to play dogs?

United · Sep 22, 2009

Wormy Pix said:
Yeah, biggest until the last wk, 10-6.

A lot of weak teams were on the road that wk, however. This yr's Wk 3 is almost the opposite, with a lot of strong teams on the road. PIT, WAS, GB, NYG, NO, CHI, & DEN are all road fav's. So could this be a big wk for fav's, or a great wk to play dogs?

I know what you mean. After the 3rd week of the NFL, I play against all 3-0, 0-3, ats, and 3-0, 0-3 on o/u. If I lose that game I start my increase the bet method, until it hits, I know it sounds crazy like blackjack, but if you check the last 3 years ats on games and totals, the lowest amount for a team on a w or l, or o or u, was 3. The books will adjust accodingly for a cover team or a dog team, same with over and under team. In a matter of fact I'm thinking about starting it this week for all 2-0, 0-2 ats, teams.

Jetplane · Sep 23, 2009

United said:
Fav's ats: 8-8
dog's ats: 8-8

over/under: 9-7

Home teams went 7-9
home teams went 6-10 ats

second week in a row that happened

points mattered in 1 game: Washington

After 2 weeks: 16-16 ats over/under 17-15
home teams straight up: 16-16
home teams ats: 12-22
points that mattered: 6 games

u mean 12-20 right? >

I agree that all this going on is weird but there are still people out there winning. Also don't forget that points mattering in 6 games = 12 teams. 12 teams out of 32 teams (well... 64 I guess if it's 2 weeks). That's roughtly 20% of games the points DO matter.

United · Sep 23, 2009

Jetplane said:
u mean 12-20 right? > I agree that all this going on is weird but there are still people out there winning. Also don't forget that points mattering in 6 games = 12 teams. 12 teams out of 32 teams (well... 64 I guess if it's 2 weeks). That's roughtly 20% of games the points DO matter.

Jetplane, your right, should read 12-20. I'll try and change it. Week 1 is where the points mattered (5), was strange to me. Always check out your thread.

good luck