"Biggest Bet of Year" Plays
Record: 0-0 (0 units)
1st "Biggest Bet of Year" Play
**** BOISE STATE -23 (over Tulsa) *****
I finally found a play, but I'm kind of fustrated. Boise st opened at -21 and this play jumped out me this weekend. However, I didn't bet on it right away, because I had to look over the team's stats, tendencies and injuries, etc etc just to confirm things before making it official, but guess what, less than 24 hrs later, the spread went up to -23!! Who's the wiseguys who jumped on this before me?? I guess they saw the same thing as I did when it first came out. It lost a bit of it's value since now it will take more than 3 touchdowns+extra pt to beat the spread. I think the spread should be atleast 28 pts, so I'm still going to play it.
23 or so pts might seem like a lot of points if you're just going by the wins and losses by the two teams and how they've done recently. The books has to get into the mind of the public. I think the books are thinking that the public will look at Tulsa's schedule and see that they won 3 straight games, the most impressive in their last game over Preseason wac fav Hawaii. And Boise st's has never beaten anyone by over 20 pts in their last 4 games so instead of making it really high, they opened it much lower. Lets look at this game closely.....
Boise st
*Boise st played 5 games, and blew out Idaho st 62-0 at home in their first game. I don't really take first games to heavily since teams never had time to gel yet, but you have to notice that Idaho st, despite being a div 2 team, they can score a ton of points, in exception to the lost against boise st, they averaged over 40 pts per game. So Boise st holding them to 0 pts, that's saying something.
*Boise st then goes to idaho and win by 14. Idaho ain't that good, but winning on the road says something in itself.
*Then they go to Oregon st, and barely lose. That game could have easily gone the other way. Lots of ranked teams would have lost by more points if they had to travel into Oreg st.
*Boise st then comes home and beats wyoming by 16 pts. Wyoming is a much better team than Tulsa.
*Boise st then goes on the road and beats Louis tech. Impressive win. Louis tech is a much better team than Tulsa is.
Tulsa
*Tulsa won their last three games, all of them at home. However, when they went to play tough teams, minn and arkansas on the road, they got smashed. I don't look at the first game that seriously, but you have to take into account how bad Tulsa lost to Minn. 49-10.
*Tulsa had another chance to redeem themselves on the road against arkansas, but still got blasted 45-13.
*Do we even need to take into consideration the three home games they just played, since they were all horrible teams.
*Hawaii, their last game, was not the same Hawaii team, they had 3 of their starting receivers and their top defensive linemen out of the game. plus the fact Hawaii is not nearly the same team they are at home. With all that going against them, Hawaii was not much better than Tulsa's other two cupcakes Texas st and Ark st.
Concerns or not
Boise st was just in a war at Louis tech where they barely won 43-37. Could it be a let down in this game against Tulsa just like how California had a let down against Oreg st after a win against USC?? Could be, but this tulsa vs boise st game is such a big missmatch, that it won't make much of a difference I feel.
ANother concern or not, is Tulsa is confident after winning 3 in a row, and just beating hawaii in a game they were dogs in. But in my opinion, that's good cause those teams they beat are no where near the talent they are about to face at boise, so they'll be shocked when the game starts.
Commentary
Tulsa, to me, is actually 0-2 for the season, with a lost to minn by 39 pts, and loss to Arkansas by 32 pts, both on the road. Those three home games they won was cupcakes, not really worth mentioning.
Now they go on the road to Boise st. This boise st team on the blue field, I feel, could beat minn and arkansas. That's how good boise st is. Now if they can beat those teams at home, imagine what they will do to Tulsa.
I saw Tulsa against Hawaii and they definitely don't have much team speed. Hawaii was, at times, moving the ball down the field at will early in the game, but ofcourse, Hawaii did not just have tons of injuries, they choke on the road so somehow tulsa won, but Boise st will move it down field against Tulsa at will from start to finish in this game. The only thing that will stop them are themselves. Tulsa's offense is slow, they won't do much against boise st's defense.
The key
Boise st's qb Dwindiddie is the key. He is definitely the best qb in the wac conference, if not one of the best in the nation. Look at this guy's current qb rating (he was the leader last season). He is currently passing over 60%, over 300 yds per game, and the best td to int ratio percentage in the nation(9 td to 1 int ratio). He doesn't make much mistakes and he's consistant. He makes everyone around him better. Boise st is dominant over Tulsa in every aspect of their offenses and defenses. This is a total missmatch.
Record: 0-0 (0 units)
1st "Biggest Bet of Year" Play
**** BOISE STATE -23 (over Tulsa) *****
I finally found a play, but I'm kind of fustrated. Boise st opened at -21 and this play jumped out me this weekend. However, I didn't bet on it right away, because I had to look over the team's stats, tendencies and injuries, etc etc just to confirm things before making it official, but guess what, less than 24 hrs later, the spread went up to -23!! Who's the wiseguys who jumped on this before me?? I guess they saw the same thing as I did when it first came out. It lost a bit of it's value since now it will take more than 3 touchdowns+extra pt to beat the spread. I think the spread should be atleast 28 pts, so I'm still going to play it.
23 or so pts might seem like a lot of points if you're just going by the wins and losses by the two teams and how they've done recently. The books has to get into the mind of the public. I think the books are thinking that the public will look at Tulsa's schedule and see that they won 3 straight games, the most impressive in their last game over Preseason wac fav Hawaii. And Boise st's has never beaten anyone by over 20 pts in their last 4 games so instead of making it really high, they opened it much lower. Lets look at this game closely.....
Boise st
*Boise st played 5 games, and blew out Idaho st 62-0 at home in their first game. I don't really take first games to heavily since teams never had time to gel yet, but you have to notice that Idaho st, despite being a div 2 team, they can score a ton of points, in exception to the lost against boise st, they averaged over 40 pts per game. So Boise st holding them to 0 pts, that's saying something.
*Boise st then goes to idaho and win by 14. Idaho ain't that good, but winning on the road says something in itself.
*Then they go to Oregon st, and barely lose. That game could have easily gone the other way. Lots of ranked teams would have lost by more points if they had to travel into Oreg st.
*Boise st then comes home and beats wyoming by 16 pts. Wyoming is a much better team than Tulsa.
*Boise st then goes on the road and beats Louis tech. Impressive win. Louis tech is a much better team than Tulsa is.
Tulsa
*Tulsa won their last three games, all of them at home. However, when they went to play tough teams, minn and arkansas on the road, they got smashed. I don't look at the first game that seriously, but you have to take into account how bad Tulsa lost to Minn. 49-10.
*Tulsa had another chance to redeem themselves on the road against arkansas, but still got blasted 45-13.
*Do we even need to take into consideration the three home games they just played, since they were all horrible teams.
*Hawaii, their last game, was not the same Hawaii team, they had 3 of their starting receivers and their top defensive linemen out of the game. plus the fact Hawaii is not nearly the same team they are at home. With all that going against them, Hawaii was not much better than Tulsa's other two cupcakes Texas st and Ark st.
Concerns or not
Boise st was just in a war at Louis tech where they barely won 43-37. Could it be a let down in this game against Tulsa just like how California had a let down against Oreg st after a win against USC?? Could be, but this tulsa vs boise st game is such a big missmatch, that it won't make much of a difference I feel.
ANother concern or not, is Tulsa is confident after winning 3 in a row, and just beating hawaii in a game they were dogs in. But in my opinion, that's good cause those teams they beat are no where near the talent they are about to face at boise, so they'll be shocked when the game starts.
Commentary
Tulsa, to me, is actually 0-2 for the season, with a lost to minn by 39 pts, and loss to Arkansas by 32 pts, both on the road. Those three home games they won was cupcakes, not really worth mentioning.
Now they go on the road to Boise st. This boise st team on the blue field, I feel, could beat minn and arkansas. That's how good boise st is. Now if they can beat those teams at home, imagine what they will do to Tulsa.
I saw Tulsa against Hawaii and they definitely don't have much team speed. Hawaii was, at times, moving the ball down the field at will early in the game, but ofcourse, Hawaii did not just have tons of injuries, they choke on the road so somehow tulsa won, but Boise st will move it down field against Tulsa at will from start to finish in this game. The only thing that will stop them are themselves. Tulsa's offense is slow, they won't do much against boise st's defense.
The key
Boise st's qb Dwindiddie is the key. He is definitely the best qb in the wac conference, if not one of the best in the nation. Look at this guy's current qb rating (he was the leader last season). He is currently passing over 60%, over 300 yds per game, and the best td to int ratio percentage in the nation(9 td to 1 int ratio). He doesn't make much mistakes and he's consistant. He makes everyone around him better. Boise st is dominant over Tulsa in every aspect of their offenses and defenses. This is a total missmatch.
