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* 1st 60 Day MLB Challenge *
- Thread starter Shatterhand
- Start date
$17 - Washington +1 -106
$29 - Philadelphia -1 -105
$37 - Kansas City -131
$24 - Toronto +1 -130
$40 - Seattle -120
Washington +1 -106 / L, -$17
Philadelphia -1 -105 / Push
Kansas City -131 / L, -$37
Toronto +1 -130 / L, -$24
Seattle -120 / W, +$33.333
1-3-1 / -$44.667
Tot: 104-78-11 / +$79.932
$31 - Baltimore +109
$30 - Washington +1 -122
$29 - Milwaukee -1 -105
$51 - Kansas City +1.5 -121
$27 - Toronto +113
Baltimore +109 / W, +$33.79
Washington +1 -122 / L, -$30
Milwaukee -1 -105 / L, -$29
Kansas City +1.5 -121 / W, +$42.149
Toronto +113 / W, +$30.51
3-2 / +$47.449
Tot: 107-80-11 / +$127.381
That is 56.54% winners.
I think the average odds at worst are about -125, but probably closer to -120, on the wrong end.
The record would be +$102 at -125 odds, risking $30 per each play (3% of the bankroll).
That would be a lot higher than what it is now, without complicated daily calculations for every play's risk, also would be a lot easier to follow.
If I have another losing day, I can go to just +$30, or even worst, and this doesn't look good at all.
Today I had a long and hard look at the numbers, and I clearly see a problem with the system. In later stages of the 60 days a bad run could do a lot more damage than in the early days - and this should be a big red flag.
Last year I've done twice at least 40% bankroll increase in less than 60 days each time, but maybe the luck factor has mattered more than I thought. The overall winning ratio on those 2 runs was just around 55.6%.
So I decided I better stop here, when I still have over $500 gain on my $10k bankroll, and go back to the drawing board.
I can clearly see what is the problem, but at this point I don't know yet how to solve it.
I will be back with another 60 day challege, if I can find the solution.
Anyway, this was a failed 60 day challenge.
I think the average odds at worst are about -125, but probably closer to -120, on the wrong end.
The record would be +$102 at -125 odds, risking $30 per each play (3% of the bankroll).
That would be a lot higher than what it is now, without complicated daily calculations for every play's risk, also would be a lot easier to follow.
If I have another losing day, I can go to just +$30, or even worst, and this doesn't look good at all.
Today I had a long and hard look at the numbers, and I clearly see a problem with the system. In later stages of the 60 days a bad run could do a lot more damage than in the early days - and this should be a big red flag.
Last year I've done twice at least 40% bankroll increase in less than 60 days each time, but maybe the luck factor has mattered more than I thought. The overall winning ratio on those 2 runs was just around 55.6%.
So I decided I better stop here, when I still have over $500 gain on my $10k bankroll, and go back to the drawing board.
I can clearly see what is the problem, but at this point I don't know yet how to solve it.
I will be back with another 60 day challege, if I can find the solution.
Anyway, this was a failed 60 day challenge.
