I read this elsewhere, I thought it brought some good facts-except the economy wasn't even mentioned, and in the final analysis, that alone should be enough to sink those idiots in office...
Let's look at a few pertinent facts:
1) the last two elections were virtual ties, even though in the second one (2004) Bush had the formidable advantages of incumbency and being a wartime president.
2) the Dems fielded candidates widely regarded as weak and uninspiring in both those elections.
3) Obama has been regularly drawing crowds of 10-15,000 people for the last six months and has received record contributions by more people than have ever donated to a political campaign in American history.
4) the sheer number of voters identifying themselves as Dems has increased massively since the last presidential election.
5) recent polls (and elections for vacated Senate seats) show enormous rage across all demographics against the Republicans.
6) McCain has flip-flopped on all the major issues issue over the years, and is now saddled with having to defend a) re-criminalizing abortion (huge majority of Americans favor choice), b) 100 years more in Iraq (substantial majority of Americans favor pulling out), c) having no health care plan other than living with the status quo, d) his remark that he knows nothing at all about economics, e) his support of torture, his continual conflation of Shiite and Sunni, his recent unguarded admission that our invasion of Iraq was predicated on oil, etc etc etc.
7) both nominees will, as you say, decry negative campaigning while both benefit from its employment by their surrogates. But make no mistake, the Obama side has plenty of ammo in that area, and their own greatest liability, Reverend Wright, has already been done to death. On the other hand, things like McCain's refusal to support the GI Bill, his involvement in the Keating case, his marital infidelity with a lobbyist, two scumbag pastors of his own, his kissing up to Bush and dozens of incidents showing him to have a very unpresidential temper, any of these things could easily gain enough traction to offset the fading Wright issue. And Wright looks to be all they have.
8) according to the pollsters, the two things that are most damaging to a political candidate in 2008 are a) being old, and b) being associated with Bush.
Yes, America is filled with morons, and the morons aren't going to vote Democratic this year. But they didn't vote Democratic in 2000 or 2004 either (they voted for one of their own) and those races were virtual ties. So why in the world would you give favor McCain when Obama has all the considerable advantages #3 through #8 that the Dems who tied in the last two elections didn't have?
