151st Kentucky Derby!🐎

Search

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
#4 Rodriguez wins the Wood Memorial.

 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,742
Tokens
I've hit a few nice derbys, but the Oaks is the race I have consistently hit over the years.

Don't sleep on Oaks day, also a fantastic race card
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
#17 Sandman wins the Arkansas Derby.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
#14 Tiztastic wins the Louisiana Derby.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
#9 Burnham Square wins the Blue Grass Stakes.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
#1 Citizen Bull wins the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
1000012217.jpg
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Oaks which is scheduled as race 11 out of 13 with post time set for 5:51 p.m. EDT. Each horse is shown with the official track morning line odds, her sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Early On
, 30-1. Union Rags – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas – 6: 1-3-1 - $162,200. Early On broke her maiden in her fourth start which was at Gulfstream Park in February. The New York-bred was second in a pair of Kentucky Oaks qualifiers. She raced from behind in the Virginia Oaks and pressed the pace in the Gazelle (G3) to get the lead midway through that nine-furlong prep race. Toss.

2. Simply Joking, 10-1. Practical Joke – Whit Beckman / Florent Geroux – 3: 2-1-0 - $288,000. Simply Joking won her first two starts at Fair Grounds winning a sprint stakes race in December and then the Silverbulletday in January with a front-end effort. In the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn she set the pace while battling with the eventual winner of the race. Win contender.

3. Fondly, 20-1. Upstart – Graham Motion / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 - $169,200. Fondly is undefeated in a career that began in February with a seven-furlong maiden at Tampa Bay Downs. Graham Motion moved her to the Oaks trail and won the Virginia Oaks after contending for the lead throughout the one-turn 1 1/16-mile contest. Irad Ortiz stays on board. Win contender.

4. Drexel Hill, 30-1. Bolt d’Oro – Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis – 7: 2-2-1 - $180,520. Drexel Hill brings lots of experience to the Oaks field. She began her career at Woodbine last year and broke her maiden in her fourth start. She changed trainers and moved to the Kentucky barn of the former Chad Brown assistant, Whit Beckman. She ran twice on the Oaks trail at Fair Grounds and then got a points victory in the Busher at Aqueduct in March with a strong closing move after stumbling at the start. Toss.

5. Quickick, 30-1. McKinzie – Tom Amoss / Umberto Rispoli – 6: 1-1-2 - $396,000. Quickick broke her maiden in her second race at Saratoga for Tom Amoss. She picked up Oaks qualifying points in her next four starts with a second in the Alcibiades (G1) and a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This year Quickick was fifth in the Honeybee (G3) and fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Tom Amoss won the Kentucky Oaks in 2019 with Serengeti Empress. Toss.

6. Ballerina d’Oro, 10-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 6: 2-1-1 - $286,975. Ballerina d’Oro is one of two fillies that were sired by Medaglia d’Oro. She began her career with three turf starts and then ran three times on the Oaks trail with a second, a third, and then in April in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct with a stalking trip. Flavien Prat has become the premier big race rider in America. Win contender.

7. La Cara, 6-1. Street Sense – Mark Casse / Dylan Davis – 9: 4-2-0 - $866,083. La Cara is one of only two Grade 1 winners in the Oaks field. She won the Ashland (G1) with a front-end trip against a field of eight at Keeneland. La Cara had two other victories on the road to the Oaks in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs. Win contender.

8. Five G, 12-1. Vekoma – George Weaver / Manny Franco – 6: 3-2-0 - $393,740. Five G finished first or second in her last five starts. The New York-bred set the pace in the Honeybee at Oaklawn and then won the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) leading every step of the way. Win contender.

9. Tenma, 12-1. Nyquist – Bob Baffert / J J Hernandez – 6: 5-0-1 - $549,000. Tenma won five times including her last three in California graded stakes. Her last two victories she won by open lengths with stalking trips as the odds-on favorite. Tenma is the other Grade 1 winner in the field from the Del Mar Debutante in September. Bob Baffert won the Oaks three times in 2017 with Abel Tasman, Plum Pretty in 2011 and Silverbulletday in 1999. Win contender.

10. Take Charge Milady, 12-1. Take Charge Indy – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 2-2-0 - $416,469. Take Charge Milady won twice in January at Oaklawn with her maiden-breaker and then the Martha Washington on the Oaks trail. She never had a chance in the Honeybee after facing too much trouble. She bounced back to rally for second in the Ashland. Mc Peek won the Oaks last year with horse of the year Thorpedo Anna. Use underneath.

11. Good Cheer, 6-5. Medaglia d’Oro – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 6: 6-0-0 - $877,630. Good Cheer has done nothing wrong winning all six of her races of which four were last year. Her speed figures gradually increased throughout her career to fit with the fastest fillies in this field. Her margins of victory range from 2 ½-lengths to 17. Good Cheer faced only three of the fillies in the Oaks field in her six races. Brad Cox has a pair of Oaks victories with Shedaresthedevil in 2020 and Monomoy Girl in 2018. The one to beat.

12. Anna’s Promise, 30-1. Promises Fulfilled – David Carlos / Junior Alvarado – 8: 2-3-0 - $150,854. Anna’s Promise finished first or second five times and that was when she was able to be part of the early pace. She broke her maiden in her sixth try and was claimed for $50,000 in February at Gulfstream. She qualified for the Oaks when she was second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Toss.

13. Bless the Broken, 30-1. Laoban – William Walden / John Velazquez – 7: 2-2-1 - $282,835. Bless the Broken was a debut winner at Evangeline Downs in July and then changed to the barn of Will Walden who put her in a pair of Kentucky allowances before trying the Oaks trail. She was second in the Silverbulletday and third in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) before winning the Bourbonette Oaks on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. Toss.

14. Quietside, 8-1. Malibu Moon – John Ortiz / Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-3-1 - $957,200. Quietside never ran a bad race in seven tries running in the top three every time. Her last five starts were on the road to the Oaks with two pace-pressing victories in the Honeybee and the Fantasy in February and March. Jose Ortiz, who is riding as well as at any point in his career, got the two best efforts from Quietside. Top Choice.

Summary: The 2025 Kentucky Derby drew yet another quality field with nine of them showing a victory in their past performances in their most recent starts. That makes it difficult to eliminate any of them from consideration.
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
14,199
Tokens
Checkout Race for the Crown on Netflix 👍

(6) 45 min episodes
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
1000012228.jpg

Six previous winners and five new faces are among the 20 jockeys with mounts in Kentucky Derby 2025 on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
John Velazquez's mount Grande may cede experience to his foes, but Velazquez's own riding experience is beyond reproach. The hall of fame rider has ridden in the Kentucky Derby 26 times, tied with Bill Shoemaker for the second most in history, and his three wins lead the field.
Mike Smith, whose 28 mounts make him the most experienced Kentucky Derby jockey in history, returns to the fray with Rodriguez. His two Kentucky Derby wins make him the only other multiple Kentucky Derby winner in the field.
In addiiton to Velazquez and Smith, other hall of fame jockeys in the 2025 edition of the Kentucky Derby include Javier Castellano and Joel Rosario. Castellano won the Kentucky Derby in 2023 with Mage, while Rosario guided Orb to the blanket of roses in 2013.
On the other side of the experience coin, five riders are slated to make their Kentucky Derby debut: Nik Juarez, Luan Machado, Joao Moreira, Joe Ramos and Juan Vargas. First-time Kentucky Derby riders have won the race five times, most recently in 2022 when Sonny León shocked the world to the tune of 80-1 odds with Rich Strike.


Jockey
HorseDerby
Junior AlvaradoSovereignty5: 0-0-0
Javier CastellanoOwen Almighty16: 1-0-1
Manny FrancoEast Avenue5: 0-1-0
Martin GarciaCitizen Bull4: 0-0-1
Brian Hernandez Jr.Burnham Square5: 1-0-0
Nik JuarezAmerican Promise0: 0-0-0
Christophe LemaireAdmire Daytona2: 0-0-0
Julien LeparouxRender Judgment14: 0-0-0
Jareth LoveberryChunk of Gold1: 0-1-0
Luan MachadoFinal Gambit0: 0-0-0
Joao MoreiraLuxor Cafe0: 0-0-0
Irad Ortiz Jr.Publisher8: 0-0-0
Jose OrtizSandman9: 0-1-1
Flavien PratBaeza, Neoequos*7: 1-1-3
Joe RamosFlying Mohawk0: 0-0-0
Umberto RispoliJournalism2: 0-0-0
Joel RosarioTiztastic13: 1-1-0
Mike SmithRodriguez28: 2-4-1
Juan VargasCoal Battle0: 0-0-0
John VelazquezGrande26: 3-2-0
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Júnior Alvarado – Sovereignty
Alvarado’s best Derby was a fourth-place finish with Mohaymen in 2016. Last year, he was sixth on Resilience. Junior Alvarado rode Sovereignty for his first four starts, with two wins in graded stakes, before Manny Franco finished second with him in the Florida Derby.

Júnior Alvarado 5:0-0-0YearFin.Odds
Mohaymen20164th11.8
Enticed201814th50.3
Tax201914th35.5
Rocket Can20239th28.81
Resilience20246th31.85


Javier Castellano – Owen Almighty
It took him 16 tries, but Castellano won his first Derby in 2023 with Mage. He also hit the board in 2018 with Audible in third. The Kentucky Derby will be his first mount on Owen Almighty.

Javier Castellano 16: 1-0-1YearFin.Odds
Bellamy Road20057th2.60
Bwana Bull200715th50.30
Big Truck200818th28.60
Discreetly Mine201013th31.60
Derby Kitten201113th36.30
Gemologist201216th8.60
Normandy Invasion20134th9.30
We Miss Artie201410th27.60
Materiality20156th11.50
Destin20166th18.00
Gunnevera20177th10.00
Audible20183rd7.00
Vekoma201912th16.80
Money Moves202013th13.10
Highly Motivated20219th10.70
Mage20231st15.21


Manny Franco – East Avenue
Franco’s best showing was second with Tiz the Law in 2020. In his most recent Derby, he was fifth with Hit Show in 2023. The Kentucky Derby will be his first start on East Avenue.

Manuel Franco 5: 0-1-0YearFin.Odds
Tencendur201517th52.30
Spinoff201918th52.30
Tiz the Law20202nd0.70
Zozos202210th48.70
Hit Show20235th24.02


Martin Garcia – Citizen Bull
Garcia’s best Derby showing was also his most recent, a third-place finish on Dortmund in 2015. Garcia has ridden Citizen Bull for five of his six career starts, including all of his wins and his fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Martin Garcia 4: 0-0-1YearFin.Odds
Conveyance201015th27.00
Liaison20126th56.20
Chitu20149th25.50
Dortmund20153rd4.30

Brian Hernandez Jr. – Burnham Square
Hernandez’s only Derby victory was last year with Mystik Dan for trainer Kenny McPeek. He also became the eighth jockey to get the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double after winning the lilies with Thorpedo Anna. Hernandez rode Burnham Square for the first time in winning the Blue Grass (G1). Hernandez rode for Burnham Square's trainer Ian Wilkes once before in the Kentucky Derby, guiding McCraken to an eighth-place finish in 2017.

Brian Hernandez Jr. 5: 1-0-0YearFin.Odds
Tom's Ready201612th49.10
McCraken20178th6.90
Tiz the Bomb20229th31.00
Sun Thunder202311th33.06
Mystik Dan20241st18.61


Nik Juarez – American Promise
This will be the Derby debut for Juarez, whose highest-level wins so far have come at the Grade 2 level with Actress in the 2017 Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and Projected in the 2017 Baltimore-Washington International Turf Cup (G2). His win with American Promise in the Virginia Derby was his first start on the colt.

Christophe Lemaire – Admire Daytona
Lemaire is a mainstay in Japan, and both of his previous Derby mounts have been based there. He finished sixth with Derma Sotogake in 2013 and 13th with Crown Pride in 2022. He has ridden Admire Daytona in four of his six starts, including his last out-win in the UAE Derby (G2).

Christophe Lemaire 2: 0-0-0YearFin.Odds
Crown Pride202213th17.50
Derma Sotogake20236th7.80


Julien Leparoux – Render Judgment
Leparoux has ridden in 14 editions of the Kentucky Derby but has yet to hit the board in the run for the roses. His best Kentucky Derby result came with Classic Empire, who placed fourth behind Always Dreaming in 2017. This will be Leparoux's first time riding Render Judgment for trainer Kenny McPeek, who won the Kentucky Derby last year with Mystik Dan.

Julien Leparoux 14: 0-0-0YearFin.Odds
Sedgefield20075th58.60
Cool Coal Man200815th44.10
General Quarters200910th10.30
Awesome Act201019th11.60
Dialed In20118th5.20
Union Rags20127th5.10
Java's War201313th21.50
Danzig Moon20155th22.60
Oscar Nominated201617th42.30
Classic Empire20174th6.80
Master Fencer20196th58.60
Storm the Court20206th27.50
Helium20217th38.10
Classic Causeway202211th78.90
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Jareth Loveberry – Chunk of Gold
Loveberry’s only Derby appearance was in 2023 with Two Phil’s, who finished second to Mage after getting caught in the stretch. He’s been aboard Chunk of Gold for his last two starts, which were second-place finishes in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby.

Jareth Loveberry 1: 0-1-0YearFin.Odds
Two Phil's20232nd9.87


Luan Machado – Final Gambit
This will be the Derby debut for Machado. He has ridden Final Gambit in his last three starts, including his maiden win and his victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).

Joao Moreira – Luxor Cafe
Moreira has ridden around the world, but this will be his first Kentucky Derby. He won the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan with Luxor Cafe. His only start with Luxor Cafe was his last-out win in the Fukuryu.

Irad Ortiz Jr. – Publisher
Ortiz has ridden in the Kentucky Derby eight times, with his best finish being a fourth-place with favored Improbable in 2019. Last year, he was on Domestic Product in 13th. The Kentucky Derby will be his first start with Publisher.

Irad Ortiz Jr. 8: 0-0-0YearFin.Odds
Uncle Sigh201414th30.80
My Man Sam201611th19.50
Hofburg20187th27.00
Improbable20194th4.00
Known Agenda20218th9.90
Mo Donegal20225th10.10
Cyclone Mischief202318th29.02
Domestic Product202413th24.17


José Ortiz – Sandman
Ortiz’s best Derby result was a second-place finish on Good Magic in 2018, 2 1/2 lengths behind Justify. Last year, he was 19th with Catalytic. Ortiz has ridden Sandman three times, including his last-out win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and twice as a juvenile at Churchill Downs.

José Ortiz 9: 0-1-1YearFin.Odds
Samraat20145th16.70
Upstart201518th15.70
Tapwrit20176th27.10
Good Magic20182nd9.70
Tacitus20193rd5.80
Dynamic One202117th45.30
Simplification20224th35.30
Kingsbarns202314th11.72
Catalytic202419th34.82


Flavien Prat – Baeza, Neoequos
Prat’s best Kentucky Derby effort was when he crossed the wire second with Country House in 2019, which later became a win with Maximum Security’s disqualification. He was third across the line in the 2021 Derby with Hot Rod Charlie but was promoted to second when Medina Spirit’s win was disallowed. Across his seven Kentucky Derby mounts he has only finished out of the superfecta once. Whether Baeza draws in or he ends up riding Neoequos after all, the Kentucky Derby will be his first start on his mount.


Flavien Prat 7: 1-1-3YearFin.Odds
Battle of Midway20173rd40.00
Solomini201810th62.90
Country House20191st65.20
Hot Rod Charlie20212nd5.60
Zandon20223rd6.10
Angel of Empire20233rd4.06
Catching Freedom20244th8.47


Joe Ramos – Flying Mohawk
This will be the Derby debut for Ramos, who has been riding since 2019. He rode Flying Mohawk in his most recent start, a second-place effort in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway. His first-ever graded-stakes victory came on the same day with Mercante in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G3).

Umberto Rispoli – Journalism
Rispoli was ninth with Endlessly last year and 14th with Brooklyn Strong in 2021. Rispoli has ridden Journalism in his last three starts, all graded-stakes wins.

Umberto Rispoli 2: 0-0-0YearFin.Odds
Brooklyn Strong202114th43.50
Endlessly20249th48.83


Joel Rosario – Tiztastic
Rosario won the 2013 Derby on Orb and was second with Epicenter in 2022, when Rich Strike surprised him late. Last year, he was 11th with Track Phantom. Rosario has ridden Tiztastic once, when they won the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Joel Rosario 13: 1-1-0YearFin.Odds
Make Music for Me20104th30.00
Brilliant Speed20117th27.90
Creative Cause20125th11.90
Orb20131st*5.40
General a Rod201411th30.70
Frosted20154th10.30
Shagaf2016DNF56.00
Practical Joke20175th27.80
Game Winner20195th6.80
Rock Your World202116th4.70
Epicenter20222nd*4.10
Disarm20234th27.12
Track Phantom202411th41.58
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Mike Smith – Rodriguez
Smith has ridden in the Kentucky Derby 28 times, the most of any jockey in history, hitting the board in seven of those starts. He won the Derby in 2018 with Justify on the way to the Triple Crown for trainer Bob Baffert, who also trained Rodriguez. He also won with 50-1 long shot Giacomo in 2005. Smith’s only start with Rodriguez was in his Wood Memorial (G2) win.

Mike Smith 28-2-4-1YearFin.Odds
Pine Circle19846th6.00
Thirty Six Red19909th5.80
Devil His Due199212th21.60
Prairie Bayou19932nd4.40
Holy Bull199412th2.20
Talkin Man199512th4.00
Unbridled's Song19965th3.50
Hello19978th9.60
Cat Thief19993rd7.40
Proud Citizen20022nd23.30
Lion Heart20042nd5.40
Giacomo20051st50.30
Flashy Bull200614th43.00
Tiago20077th14.80
Gayego200817th18.90
Chocolate Candy20095th10.00
Jackson Bend201012th23.00
Twinspired201117th32.90
Bodemeister20122nd4.20
Palace Malice201312th23.70
Far Right201515th39.20
Danzing Candy201615th25.70
Girvin201713th22.10
Justify20181st2.90
Cutting Humor201910th24.10
Honor A. P.20204th7.60
Midnight Bourbon20215th13.20
Taiba202212th5.80


Juan Vargas – Coal Battle
This will be the Derby debut for Vargas, who has been riding since 2008 and won four graded stakes in that time. However, his win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) with Coal Battle was his first in over a decade, since the 2014 Fair Grounds Handicap (G2) with Potomac River. Vargas has ridden Coal Battle for all but one of his eight career starts, including his four wins before he finished third in the Arkansas Derby.

John Velazquez – Grande
Velazquez has had more Derby mounts than anyone in this year’s race except for Mike Smith, and is a joint second all-time behind Smith and tied with Bill Shoemaker. He also has the most wins of anyone in the 2025 field: with Authentic in 2020, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. Last year, he was 15th with Fierceness.
Velazquez rode Grande to wins in his first two starts, both wins, before Dylan Davis rode him to a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial.

John Velázquez 26: 3-2-0YearFin.Odds
Built for Pleasure199619th24.80
Basic Trainee199815th69.80
Three Ring (filly)199919th25.60
More Than Ready20004th11.30
Invisible Ink20012nd55.00
Saarland200210th6.90
Pollard's Vision200417th24.00
Bandini200519th6.80
Circular Quay20076th11.40
Cowboy Cal20089th39.20
Mr. Hot Stuff200915th28.40
Devil May Care (filly)201010th10.90
Animal Kingdom20111st20.90
Went the Day Well20124th30.60
Verrazano201314th8.70
Intense Holiday201412th14.10
Carpe Diem201510th7.70
Outwork201614th26.50
Always Dreaming20171st4.70
Vino Rosso20189th14.10
Code of Honor20192nd14.40
Authentic20201st8.40
Medina Spirit2021x19th12.10
Messier202215th7.10
Reincarnate202313th14.76
Fierceness202415th3.21
 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Kentucky Oaks
#11 Good Cheer wins the Fair Grounds Oaks.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Kentucky Oaks
#14 Quietside wins the Fantasy Stakes.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens
Kentucky Oaks
#7 La Cara wins the Ashland Stakes.

 

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
112,149
Tokens

Forum statistics

Threads
1,135,148
Messages
13,823,646
Members
104,180
Latest member
craiglindsey46
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com