Kentucky Oaks
Burnham Square works 5F in :59.20 for trainer Ian Wilkes in preparation for the 151st Kentucky Derby.
You know horse racing. If you like add info to the thread.
Tk
1. Citizen Bull, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia – 6: 4-1-0, $1,451,000. Citizen Bull made four starts on the Derby trail going back to 2024 when he won the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to secure the 2-year-old male-division championship. He came back this year in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) with another front-end victory and then faded badly to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Speed.
2. Neoequos, 30-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Flavien Prat (2) - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050. Neoequos was prominently placed in all his races beginning with five starts at Gulfstream that included two in Florida stallion-series stakes. On the Derby trail he got to the lead and ended up third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). Speed.
3. Final Gambit, 30-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado - 4: 2-1-1, $520,639. Final Gambit dropped back to last in large fields in three of his races. He made winning rallies in his last two starts in a maiden and the Jeff Ruby (G3) on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Deep closer.
4. Rodriguez, 12-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 5: 2-2-1, $522,800. Rodriguez went to the lead in the Wood Memorial (G2) and led every step of the way to an easy win. Baffert used speed as a weapon in the Kentucky Derby picking up victories with Rodriguez’s father Authentic and War Emblem. Speed.
5. American Promise, 30-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez - 9: 2-1-1, $444,874. American Promise is the most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. His best performances were when he was part of the early pace. American Promise had a career best effort to win the Virginia Derby by almost eight-lengths when he took the lead after six-furlongs. Speed.
6. Admire Daytona, 30-1. Drefong – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire - 6: 2-2-0, $672,047. Admire Daytona qualified for the Derby with a nose victory in the UAE Derby (G2) after racing on the lead. The track at Meydan often favors front-end winners that get a spot in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Speed.
7. Luxor Café, 15-1. American Pharoah – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira - 6: 4-1-0, $379,057. Luxor Café won his last four starts which were in Japan. His most impressive victory was at the end of March in the Fukuryu where he made a visually impressive move on the outside with a stalking trip to easily take the lead and drew off to a five-length margin in the nine-furlong Derby prep. Stalker.
8. Journalism, 3-1. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli - 5: 4-0-1, $638,880. Journalism won his last four races moving from a maiden to three victories on the Derby trail. In those stakes wins Umberto Rispoli sat confidently a few lengths behind the leader, took control of the races mid-stretch and was a clear winner. Stalker.
9. Burnham Square, 12-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 6: 3-1-1, $977,755. Burnham Square rallied from seventh and last in the Blue Grass (G1) to win by a nose. He also used a closing move in his other two victories which were at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull (G3) and a maiden. Closer.
10. Grande, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 3: 2-1-0, $228,200. Grande won his first two starts at Gulfstream during the winter going a mile and then another furlong after pressing the pace. In the Wood Memorial (G2) he rallied from farther back in seventh to a second-place finish that got him eligible for the Derby. Stalker.
11. Flying Mohawk, 30-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos - 6: 2-2-0, $295,800. Flying Mohawk was more forwardly placed in races on the turf to end his 2-year-old campaign. This year he got behind in the early going and rallied to victory in an allowance and then got to second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Closer.
12. East Avenue, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco - 5: 2-1-0, $654,395. East Avenue was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in his second start in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a front-running score. He showed some speed in the Risen Star (G2) to start 2025 but faded to 10th. He bounced back in the Blue Grass and was second by a nose after setting the pace. Speed.
13. Publisher, 20-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 7: 0-2-3, $407,756. Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts for Steve Asmussen. He was fourth in the Rebel (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after getting behind 16 lengths. The blinkers went on and helped this son of American Pharoah run the best race of his career in that prep race. Deep closer.
14. Tiztastic, 20-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 8: 3-1-2, $1,549,800. Tiztastic appreciated the longest distance on the Derby trail in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he was able to show off his closing move. He rallied from ninth where he was nine lengths behind, got to the lead at the stretch call and drew off to win by more than two lengths while others were tiring. Closer.
15. Render Judgment, 30-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Julien Leparoux - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672. Render Judgment was a late addition to the Derby field when the connections changed their minds and opted to join the run for the roses when a spot in the field opened. In his seven starts the only time that he got to the lead was at the end of his maiden victory in October. Closer.
16. Coal Battle, 30-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas - 8: 5-0-1, $1,188,875. Coal Battle showed versatility in his five victories with a win on the front-end in the Smarty Jones and come from behind efforts in the Springboard Mile and the Rebel. Closer.
17. Sandman, 6-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz - 8: 3-1-2, $1,254,595. Sandman got far behind by 13 lengths in the early going of his two most recent starts. Deep closers are dependent on a fast past and tiring horses to rally successfully, and Sandman got that to win the Arkansas Derby. He should get the fast pace on Saturday but also is likely to get very far behind. Deep closer.
18. Sovereignty, 5-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 5: 2-2-0, $572,800. Sovereignty raced from the back of the field in his three starts on the Derby trail whether that put him in eighth, ninth or fifth position in the early going. Each time he rallied wide and clear to victory twice or last time to get second in the Florida Derby. Closer.
19. Chunk of Gold, 30-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry - 4: 1-3-0, $348,818. Chunk of Gold heads into Saturday with three second-place finishes in a row after dropping towards the back of the field each time. In January it was in a stakes race at Turfway and then on the Derby trail in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. Closer.
20. Owen Almighty, 30-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano - 7: 3-2-0, $499,935. Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by a clear margin after leading every step of the way. In the Blue Grass he was unable to get to the lead and faded to sixth. Javier Castellano gets the mount after the Ortiz brothers opted for other horses. Speed.
2. Neoequos, 30-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Flavien Prat (2) - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050. Neoequos was prominently placed in all his races beginning with five starts at Gulfstream that included two in Florida stallion-series stakes. On the Derby trail he got to the lead and ended up third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). Speed.
3. Final Gambit, 30-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado - 4: 2-1-1, $520,639. Final Gambit dropped back to last in large fields in three of his races. He made winning rallies in his last two starts in a maiden and the Jeff Ruby (G3) on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Deep closer.
4. Rodriguez, 12-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 5: 2-2-1, $522,800. Rodriguez went to the lead in the Wood Memorial (G2) and led every step of the way to an easy win. Baffert used speed as a weapon in the Kentucky Derby picking up victories with Rodriguez’s father Authentic and War Emblem. Speed.
5. American Promise, 30-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez - 9: 2-1-1, $444,874. American Promise is the most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. His best performances were when he was part of the early pace. American Promise had a career best effort to win the Virginia Derby by almost eight-lengths when he took the lead after six-furlongs. Speed.
6. Admire Daytona, 30-1. Drefong – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire - 6: 2-2-0, $672,047. Admire Daytona qualified for the Derby with a nose victory in the UAE Derby (G2) after racing on the lead. The track at Meydan often favors front-end winners that get a spot in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Speed.
7. Luxor Café, 15-1. American Pharoah – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira - 6: 4-1-0, $379,057. Luxor Café won his last four starts which were in Japan. His most impressive victory was at the end of March in the Fukuryu where he made a visually impressive move on the outside with a stalking trip to easily take the lead and drew off to a five-length margin in the nine-furlong Derby prep. Stalker.
8. Journalism, 3-1. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli - 5: 4-0-1, $638,880. Journalism won his last four races moving from a maiden to three victories on the Derby trail. In those stakes wins Umberto Rispoli sat confidently a few lengths behind the leader, took control of the races mid-stretch and was a clear winner. Stalker.
9. Burnham Square, 12-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 6: 3-1-1, $977,755. Burnham Square rallied from seventh and last in the Blue Grass (G1) to win by a nose. He also used a closing move in his other two victories which were at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull (G3) and a maiden. Closer.
10. Grande, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 3: 2-1-0, $228,200. Grande won his first two starts at Gulfstream during the winter going a mile and then another furlong after pressing the pace. In the Wood Memorial (G2) he rallied from farther back in seventh to a second-place finish that got him eligible for the Derby. Stalker.
11. Flying Mohawk, 30-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos - 6: 2-2-0, $295,800. Flying Mohawk was more forwardly placed in races on the turf to end his 2-year-old campaign. This year he got behind in the early going and rallied to victory in an allowance and then got to second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Closer.
12. East Avenue, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco - 5: 2-1-0, $654,395. East Avenue was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in his second start in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a front-running score. He showed some speed in the Risen Star (G2) to start 2025 but faded to 10th. He bounced back in the Blue Grass and was second by a nose after setting the pace. Speed.
13. Publisher, 20-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 7: 0-2-3, $407,756. Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts for Steve Asmussen. He was fourth in the Rebel (G2) and second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after getting behind 16 lengths. The blinkers went on and helped this son of American Pharoah run the best race of his career in that prep race. Deep closer.
14. Tiztastic, 20-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 8: 3-1-2, $1,549,800. Tiztastic appreciated the longest distance on the Derby trail in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he was able to show off his closing move. He rallied from ninth where he was nine lengths behind, got to the lead at the stretch call and drew off to win by more than two lengths while others were tiring. Closer.
15. Render Judgment, 30-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Julien Leparoux - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672. Render Judgment was a late addition to the Derby field when the connections changed their minds and opted to join the run for the roses when a spot in the field opened. In his seven starts the only time that he got to the lead was at the end of his maiden victory in October. Closer.
16. Coal Battle, 30-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas - 8: 5-0-1, $1,188,875. Coal Battle showed versatility in his five victories with a win on the front-end in the Smarty Jones and come from behind efforts in the Springboard Mile and the Rebel. Closer.
17. Sandman, 6-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz - 8: 3-1-2, $1,254,595. Sandman got far behind by 13 lengths in the early going of his two most recent starts. Deep closers are dependent on a fast past and tiring horses to rally successfully, and Sandman got that to win the Arkansas Derby. He should get the fast pace on Saturday but also is likely to get very far behind. Deep closer.
18. Sovereignty, 5-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 5: 2-2-0, $572,800. Sovereignty raced from the back of the field in his three starts on the Derby trail whether that put him in eighth, ninth or fifth position in the early going. Each time he rallied wide and clear to victory twice or last time to get second in the Florida Derby. Closer.
19. Chunk of Gold, 30-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry - 4: 1-3-0, $348,818. Chunk of Gold heads into Saturday with three second-place finishes in a row after dropping towards the back of the field each time. In January it was in a stakes race at Turfway and then on the Derby trail in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. Closer.
20. Owen Almighty, 30-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano - 7: 3-2-0, $499,935. Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by a clear margin after leading every step of the way. In the Blue Grass he was unable to get to the lead and faded to sixth. Javier Castellano gets the mount after the Ortiz brothers opted for other horses. Speed.
GB keeps sports on page 1, thankful for that
I haven't won a Derby bet in years
Of course, I always aim high so that's an issue
Maybe I should do a $500 show, try to get my money back+. That would be a win
I haven't won a Derby bet in years
Of course, I always aim high so that's an issue
Maybe I should do a $500 show, try to get my money back+. That would be a win
Let's go back to 2022...Rich strike.
Journalism works 5F in 1:01.40 for trainer Michael McCarthy.
Sovereignty works 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 for trainer Bill Mott.
Rodriguez works 5F in 1:00.00 for trainer Bob Baffert.
Let's go back to 2018 triple crown winner Justify in the slop.
Get an up close and personal look at Coal Battle during Dawn at the Downs.
Look in on Admire Daytona and Luxor Café as they school together in the Churchhill paddock.
Kentucky Derby 2025: Ranking the field from 1st to last
Michael McCarthy's Journalism will be a deserving favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He checks every imaginable box and in my opinion there has not been a more formidable Kentucky Derby favorite since American Pharoah in 2015.Second-choice Sovereignty is a prime contender in his own right who will be extremely tough to keep out of the trifecta. With this year's Kentucky Derby looking very formful at the top, it is vital to analyze the field deeper to find the hidden gems to fill out the exotic wagers.
Even in the most predictable of years, hitting the Kentucky Derby trifecta or superfecta is fruitful due to the large field size. When American Pharoah won in 2015, the $1 trifecta paid $202 despite three of the top four choices finishing in the top 3. The top 4 choices completed the superfecta in order in 2016 when Nyquist captured the Kentucky Derby and that $1 wager still paid $542. If just one long shot enters the equation, payouts can potentially balloon to the thousands. With that in mind, I analyze the entire Kentucky Derby field from first to last below to try to find the right value plays underneath the logical contenders.
1st, Journalism (3-1). The fastest horse in the race on numbers also happens to be the horse with the best style in the Kentucky Derby. He should be sitting mid-pack behind a swift pace while getting first run on the big closers. He showed he could run down a lone speed in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and he overcame a tough trip to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) with a relentless rally. Typically relentless closers that are built for the Kentucky Derby distance are grinders, but he moves with quick, athletic strides. The son of Curlin is the real deal and there is no need to overthink this year's Derby in the top slot.
2nd, Sovereignty (5-1). The son of Into Mischief is another runner who looks like he will relish the added distance in the Kentucky Derby. He showed a furious late kick to capture both the Street Sense Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and he had no reason to be fully cranked up for the Florida Derby (G1) after previously earning enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Bill Mott understands the bigger picture and should have this colt primed to run his best race when it matters most. He will have plenty of pace to run into and should be flying late.
3rd, Luxor Cafe (15-1). The Japanese import should not be taken lightly and is an intriguing price play. He showed a great turn of foot in his last start in the Fukuryu Stakes and seems to be improving in every start. He defeated fellow import Admire Daytona twice in Japan and Admire Daytona returned to win the UAE Derby. He already owns two wins on left-handed courses and the son of American Pharoah looks like he will adapt well to American racing.
4th, Grande (20-1). Todd Pletcher's colt continues to improve in each start and the lightly-raced son of Curlin should get a favorable pace scenario to run into this time around after trying to chase loose leader Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). Grande was also wide for almost the entire journey and should be able to outrun his odds with another step forward and a better trip.
5th, Final Gambit (30-1). This colt has never run on dirt or faced anywhere near this level of competition, but considering his 30-1 morning-line, he has many positives that may warrant a closer look. The son of Not This Time is bred to handle the dirt and runs like the distance will not be a problem. His connections of Juddmonte and Brad Cox are no strangers to winning big races. The impressive turn of foot he showed in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) would make him a factor if he is able to replicate it on dirt. His Beyer Speed Figure improved by 27 points in the Jeff Ruby. He may bounce off that effort, but if he is able to take another leap forward then he could light up the tote.
6th, Sandman (6-1). This is another deep closer who should appreciate the expected fast early pace. He had a couple of difficult trips in Arkansas prior to the Arkansas Derby (G1) and put it all together in the marquee race after getting a beneficial pace set-up. It would be no surprise to see him finish in the top 3, but the long shots listed above offer more intrigue due to their value.
7th, Rodriguez (12-1). Bob Baffert's colt is a tough horse to evaluate as he has a ton of ability, but must prove he does not need the lead to be at his best. In his two route starts in which he made the lead, he easily defeated Baeza and won the Wood Memorial (G2) with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. He was no match for Citizen Bull or Journalism when he did not make the lead. It is possible that he is a better horse since removing blinkers in the Wood Memorial and I think he is the best of the speed brigade. Citizen Bull, Owen Almighty, East Avenue, American Promise, Neoequos and Admire Daytona all have run their best races on the front, which will make his task difficult.
8th, Tiztastic (20-1). Can Steve Asmussen's colt replicate his Louisiana Derby (G2) effort? It was a visually impressive win in his longest distance test yet and he could be a factor in the Kentucky Derby with another step forward. The concern is that the Louisiana Derby was not a strong prep this year and he had been soundly defeated by a few of these runners previously on the Triple Crown Trail. He will be closing late and could pick up some pieces.
9th, Burnham Square (12-1). He got the job done in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), but came home slowly in a race tailor-made for him. The son of Liam's Map is a bit of a grinder that will appreciate the distance and will be passing tired horses late, but does not offer enough value to get excited about.
10th, Publisher (30-1). The lone maiden in the Kentucky Derby field showed nice improvement with blinkers in the Arkansas Derby (G1). His connections of Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz Jr. have won just about everything except the Kentucky Derby, in which they both have struggled historically. Maybe they are due and if he continues his improving pattern, he could sneak into the bottom of the exotics at a price.
11th, American Promise (30-1). D. Wayne Lukas' colt is similar to Rodriguez as he looks stellar when on or near the lead and below average when he rates off the pace. With so much speed lined up, I am not confident he will be able to sit a comfortable trip, but if he somehow gets away up-front, he will outrun his odds.
12th, Citizen Bull (20-1). The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is another runner who needs the lead. Even with the lead in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the step up in competition and distance proved to be too much for him to handle. The idea of removing blinkers to attempt to rate made him a bit intriguing, but the rail draw all but ensures that he will have the gun for the early lead, comprising his chances.
13th, Chunk of Gold (30-1). He finished second at 43-1 in the Risen Star Stakes and followed that effort up with another second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at 10-1. The clock may strike midnight for this cinderella story as the waters get deeper. I do not like that he has lost ground in the stretch in both of his Derby preps, a sign that he may not appreciate the added distance of the Kentucky Derby.
14th, Admire Daytona (30-1). The Japanese import won a desperate photo in the UAE Derby in an effort that may have taken some starch out of him. He wired the field that day and will have a hard time repeating that effort in Kentucky. He has been a notch below Luxor Cafe in Japan and has bigger concerns in this race.
15th, East Avenue (20-1). The Grade 1 winner is among the best in the crop when he makes a clear lead, but he has already shown how he runs when things do not go his way as he finished near the back of the pack in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Risen Star Stakes (G2). He is much more likely to be involved in a contested early pace then to walk on the lead, hurting his chances of success.
16th, Coal Battle (30-1). He sat perfect trips in his Smarty Jones and Rebel Stakes (G2) victories and fell apart late when making the first run into a hot pace in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He will be a nice runner at shorter distances after the Triple Crown Trail, but the horse with the lowest Daily Racing Form Tomlinson Distance Rating is not likely to relish extra ground.
17th, Neoequos (30-1). The Florida-bred has never won beyond 6-furlongs and will have to turn the tables on Sovereignty at a distance that seems less than ideal. He will be involved early, but is unlikely to hang around late.
18th, Flying Mohawk (30-1). This colt is improving, but still needs to take another massive step forward to compete with this group after being dusted by Final Gambit in his last start. Unlike Final Gambit, his breeding leans more to the turf and he would have to defy the odds to make noise in his first dirt start.
19th, Render Judgment (30-1). Kenny McPeek's colt looks unlikely to give him a repeat of Derby glory. He has been non-threatening in five starts since breaking maiden and would need a colossal form reversal to turn the tables on many of these runners.
20th, Owen Almighty (30-1). The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner had nothing left late when stretching out in distance in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). With more pace pressure and distance on tap in the Kentucky Derby, the talented colt is likely to fade before turning for home and will hopefully shorten up in distance the rest of the year.
Let's go back 10 years triple crown winner American Pharoah wins the 2015 Kentucky derby.
#8 Journalism wins the Santa Anita Derby.
#18 Sovereignty wins the Fountain Of Youth.
#7 Luxor Cafe wins the Hyacinth Stakes.
