15 Playoff Games so far...

[Feddz]

And only one OT. I don't have the time to run the numbers on past seasons, but I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the historical number for the playoffs is a lot higher than 1/15. Looking quickly at last year there were 10 OTs out of 46 games in the 1st round - obviously 1/4.6. in 2014 the first round numbers were 14 OTs in 48 games, for 1/3.4.

Obviously it's early, and there could be any number of reasons for the discrepancy, but there's a decent chance that we're due for a couple of OTs if anyone feels like being a degen and making blind wagers...

 

[scottcarter]

Ya I was thinking that also. Its not like the games weren't close. There could have been several OT games with a little puck luck.

 

[Feddz]

Just a heads up that we are now at 3 OTs out of 26 games entering play tonight. Which works out to 1/8.7 - still way below the typical number for the playoffs.
As a reminder:

In 2011: 14 out of 49 Round one games went to OT:
In 2012: 19/48
In 2013: 16/47
In 2014: 14/48
In 2015: 10/46

So cumulatively in the last 5 years of round one, there have been 73 OTs out of 238 games played, meaning on average there is an OT in every 3.26 games.
Maybe there's a good reason (anyone have one?) - more penalties being called stretching the scores out?
But if there's 1 or fewer OTs out of the 4 games tonight I'm going to start blindly betting and see how that plays out.
With average odds of an OT hovering at around +285 you need to cash on a little more than 1 out of every 4 games to turn a profit.
In an average year there seem to be around 48 games in the first round. Since there have been 26 games played entering tonight, that suggests that there are roughly 22 games left. Rough math says that if 6 of those have OTs then I break even, and any more and I obviously turn a profit. 6 more would still leave the lowest total in the last 6 years, so it seems like a fun bet to make with a decent amount of EV.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[seer]

i need fla and isles to go to ot - it looks pretty good - both playing tight
i figure on sj tonight as well.

min dal will come down to the wire too. maybe they come in bunches tonight

 

[stale]

mind set is a little different for the game when you are rooting for ot

 

[Feddz]

Four more one-goal games tonight and no OT, which makes it 3/30 this year so far in the playoffs.

And for the record, this year's regular season featured 275 overtime games out of 1230 total games, or one OT for every 4.47 games. Things historically tighten up even further in the playoffs which tends to produce even more ties.

As a numbers guy, I'm prepared to go down in flames on this one, as the law of averages has to kick in sometime here. I'm going to blindly bet for ties at least until we get a few to bring the percentages closer together, and will track it here - posting the game and line that I get assuming I get home in time to bet!

 

[bones1980]

The Ot games will come now that teams are facing elimination

 

[Feddz]

Thursday, April 21

One unit on each for the tie:
Ducks/Preds +281
Hawks/Blues +280
Wings/Lightning +305
Pens/Rangers +293

 

[Feddz]

0/3 so far with one pending. That Wings/Lightning game was a bit of a heartbreaker...

 

[seer]

finally an ot! did u have it>?

 

[Feddz]

finally an ot! did u have it>?

haha yeah I did thank god

 

[Feddz]

Thursday, April 21

One unit on each for the tie:
Ducks/Preds +281 LOSS
Hawks/Blues +280 WIN
Wings/Lightning +305 LOSS
Pens/Rangers +293 LOSS

1-3, -0.20U on the night.

 

[Feddz]

April 22
1-3. -0.20U

Tonight's OT card - one unit on each:

Wild/Stars +319
Isles/Panthers +293
Flyers/Caps +334
Sharks/Kings +273

 

[Riv34]

Finally got a night with OTs....nailed em Feddz!!

 

[Feddz]

Finally got a night with OTs....nailed em Feddz!!

Thanks man. Hopefully the law of averages continues to be our friend!

 

[Feddz]

April 22
1-3. -0.20U

Tonight's OT card - one unit on each:

Wild/Stars +319 Win
Isles/Panthers +293 Win
Flyers/Caps +334 Loss
Sharks/Kings +273 Loss

2-2, +4.12U on the day

3-5, +3.92U overall

 

[Feddz]

April 23
3-5, +3.92U

Today's blind tie bets:

Preds/Ducks +293
Rangers/Pens +322
Blues/Hawks +293

 

[Feddz]

After last night Round one now looks like this:

6 ties out of 38 games, or 1/6.33.

Which is a lot closer to the norm than a couple of days ago, but still a far cry from the recent average, so I'll keep betting them until I think the value is gone.

 

[Feddz]

Missed the early game which fortunately (for me, at least) didn't go to OT!

Other Sunday games:

Stars/Wild +300
Isles/Panthers +277

 

[Feddz]

April 23
3-5, +3.92U

Today's blind tie bets:

Preds/Ducks +293 Loss
Rangers/Pens +322 Loss
Blues/Hawks +293 Loss

0-3, -3.00U on the day
3-8, +0.92U overall