American Pharoah opens as favorite to win Belmont Stakes
By JUSTIN HARTLING
With American Pharoah's easy victory in the Preakness Stakes, it's time for the sports world to look toward the Belmont Stakes on June 6. And, not surprisingly, the Triple Crown hopeful has opened as a 2/3 favorite to win the race in New York.
American Pharoah became the fourteenth horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown since Affirmed last accomplished the feat in 1978.
Sportsbooks can expect a crazy day, something they should be well prepared for after California Chrome can one win away from the Triple Crown last year.
“It will be standing room only in here," Jeff Stoneback, sports and race book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, told Covers last year. “Every year we’re rooting for some horse to hit the first two legs (of the Triple Crown).
The complete list of opening odds for the Belmont Stakes:
American Pharoah 2/3
Carpe Diem 6/1
Frosted 6/1
Materiality 8/1
Conquest Curlinate 10/1
Keen ice 10/1
Madefromlucky 10/1
Mubtaahij 15/1
By JUSTIN HARTLING
With American Pharoah's easy victory in the Preakness Stakes, it's time for the sports world to look toward the Belmont Stakes on June 6. And, not surprisingly, the Triple Crown hopeful has opened as a 2/3 favorite to win the race in New York.
American Pharoah became the fourteenth horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown since Affirmed last accomplished the feat in 1978.
Sportsbooks can expect a crazy day, something they should be well prepared for after California Chrome can one win away from the Triple Crown last year.
“It will be standing room only in here," Jeff Stoneback, sports and race book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, told Covers last year. “Every year we’re rooting for some horse to hit the first two legs (of the Triple Crown).
The complete list of opening odds for the Belmont Stakes:
American Pharoah 2/3
Carpe Diem 6/1
Frosted 6/1
Materiality 8/1
Conquest Curlinate 10/1
Keen ice 10/1
Madefromlucky 10/1
Mubtaahij 15/1
American Pharoah Triple Crown odds released
Andrew Caley
American Pharaoh will be the 14th horse to go for the elusive Triple Crown since Affirmed last won it in 1978 and at least one sportsbook thinks we will have to wait another year.
The Westgate LV Superbook has release the prop "Will American Pharaoh Win the 2015 Triple Crown?", with the No favored at -125. The Yes has opened at +105.
The 147th Belmont Stakes will be run Saturday, June 6.
Andrew Caley
American Pharaoh will be the 14th horse to go for the elusive Triple Crown since Affirmed last won it in 1978 and at least one sportsbook thinks we will have to wait another year.
The Westgate LV Superbook has release the prop "Will American Pharaoh Win the 2015 Triple Crown?", with the No favored at -125. The Yes has opened at +105.
The 147th Belmont Stakes will be run Saturday, June 6.
Triple Crown Dirty Dozen
By Anthony Stabile
Elite Eleven
Triple Crown Failures
After waiting 25 years for a Triple Crown winner, horse racing fans were spoiled in the 1970s by the time Affirmed became the eleventh horse to do it when he captured the Triple Crown with a heart-stopping victory over Alydar in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. After all, Secretariat did it spectacularly in 1973, the first since Citation back in 1948 and Seattle Slew completed the sweep in style, managing to stay undefeated through the 1977 “Test of the Champion.”
Little did they know, 37 years would come and go without another accomplishing the feat. Overall, 20 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before coming to the Big Apple to get their proverbial clocks cleaned, 13 of them since Affirmed alone. One of them, I'll Have Another back in 2012, didn't even make it to the starting gate as he was scratched the day before the event with a nagging tendon injury.
That can all change on Saturday, June 6th when American Pharoah will be looking for his seventh consecutive victory and to make it an even dozen who can say they won the Triple Crown in Thoroughbred racing.
Here's a look at the dirty dozen, if you will, that failed in their quest to become number 12 since Affirmed.
SPECTACULAR BID – 1979
Would there really be three in a row? It had never happened before, but Spectacular Bid was 1-5 in the Belmont despite a jockey in Ronnie Franklin that some would describe as mediocre while others would say that was insulting mediocrity and the fact that he stepped on a safety pin the day before the race. Whether it was the awful ride Franklin gave him or the pin that got him beat is still up for debate, as Coastal won the event as the 4-1 second choice. What isn’t is that “the greatest horse to ever look through a bridle,” according to his trainer Buddy Delp, couldn’t get the job done, leaving many to wonder if he couldn’t, who can?
PLEASANT COLONY – 1981
Perhaps the most boisterous trainer of his time, John Campo sure could back it up. He’d trained countless stakes winners and several Eclipse champions by the time Pleasant Colony rolled to a pair of heart-stopping scores in the Derby and Preakness in ’81. Then Belmont week came, and Campo didn’t say a word. He knew he was done. “He’d lost weight and was coming apart in front of my eyes,” Campo would tell me in an interview a few years before he passed away. He was right. Jockey Jorge Velasquez didn’t ride a normal scheduled and meditated most of the week before finishing third to Summing.
ALYSHEBA - 1987
Trained by Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg, the fact that Alysheba even made it to the Belmont in one piece overshadows the fact that he was beaten over 14 lengths by Derby and Preakness runner-up Bet Twice. In the Derby, his jockey Chris McCarron literally came out of the saddle in mid-stretch before recovering to win by ¾ of a length then got up in the final strides of the Preakness to win by a ½ length. And while he didn’t have the best trip in the Belmont, it’s hard to imagine he was going to make up that big of a margin.
SUNDAY SILENCE - 1989
It’s hard to mention his name without saying Easy Goer’s right afterwards and vice versa. It’s closest the sport had to a rivalry since Affirmed and Alydar and it still holds true today. Sunday Silence loved a wet track, Easy Goer didn’t and that was likely the difference in the Derby that was run in the mud. Their Preakness duel is widely considered one of the greatest races of all time, with Sunday Silence prevailing by a nose after a furious half-mile battle that seemed to last an eternity and surviving an inquiry that could have gone either way. Then they came to Belmont and Easy Goer exacted his revenge, thrashing his rival by eight lengths in a tour de force performance that proved who the better horse was.
SILVER CHARM – 1997
“One tough customer” is a good way to describe the gritty gray that first put trainer Bob Baffert in position to win the Crown. A hard-fought Derby score by a head over Captain Bodgit followed by an equally grueling victory over Free House by the same margin in the Preakness set the stage for the most highly anticipated Belmont in close to a decade. Silver Charm was in front turning for home and appeared to be home free but a resurging Touch Gold, who got off to a dismal start in the Preakness before flying up the inside to finish fourth, re-rallied under Chris McCarron, who gave one of the greatest rides in the history of the turf, to cut Silver Charm down by ¾ of a length.
REAL QUIET – 1998
“Bullet” Bob wasted little time in positioning himself to make history again after Real Quiet, known as “The Fish” for his narrow build, held off Victory Gallop in the Derby before drawing away from him in the Preakness, was 4-5 to win the Belmont. On the far turn, he looked like “chicken dinner” as the saying goes, as jockey Kent Desormeaux blasted off to a four length. But Victory Gallop came flying through the stretch under Gary Stevens, who just missed aboard Silver Charm the previous year, and nailed Real Quiet on the money by a nose despite being impeded in the stretch by his rival. The stewards would say after the photo was posted that Real Quiet would have been disqualified had he held on. It would have been interesting to see how that would have gone over with the 80,000 plus fans that made the grandstand shake that day.
CHARISMATIC – 1999
In November of ‘98 or February of ‘99, you could have claimed him from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas for $62,500. By June 5, he had earned $2 million dollars, had won the Lexington, Derby and Preakness and was facing, coincidentally, eleven others in his date with destiny. Unfortunately, the rumors that he wasn’t the soundest horse in the world were true and he coughed up the lead in deep stretch and wound up third after getting a questionable ride by the late, great Chris Antley, who it turned out was battling some old demons upon his return to New York, his old stomping grounds, in the days leading up to the race. Still, who can forget Antley, in tears, holding up Charismatic’s leg just yards after the finish in what would be the final race of the colts’ career.
WAR EMBLEM – 2002
A late edition to the Baffert barn after he was purchased privately after a gate-to-wire romp in the Illinois Derby, War Emblem led them from start to finish again in the Derby, his first start for Baffert before chasing a quick pace and holding off local longshot Magic Weisner in the Preakness. Unlike those before him however, War Emblem’s hopes essentially vanished as soon as the gates opened, as he stumbled badly at the start of the Belmont. He was never able to settle down under his rider Victor Espinoza and though he managed to put his head in front after rallying greenly along the inside down the backstretch, he faded terribly through the stretch while Sarava lit up the tote board to the tune of $142.50, the longest priced winner in the history of the Belmont.
FUNNY CIDE – 2003
Ahhhhh, the “Gutsy Gelding,” as legendary track announcer Tom Durkin coined. He became the first gelding to win the Derby in close to a century and the only New York Bred to ever do so. After defeating Empire Maker and the rest in the Derby by almost two lengths, Funny Cide rolled to a near tem length score in the Preakness under his rider Jose Santos. A crazy work in :57 and change five days before the Derby was the first sign that trouble was ahead and Funny Cide wound up on the lead in the Belmont over a sloppy track. He was done by the time they reached the quarter pole and Empire Maker, who many thought would be the one trying to win the Crown that season, defeated Ten Most Wanted with Funny Cide five lengths back in third.
SMARTY JONES – 2004
The first to try and complete the sweep while remaining undefeated since Seattle Slew back in 1977, Smarty Jones had won his eight previous starts, including the Derby over the slop at Churchill by almost three lengths and the Preakness by an astounding 11 ½ lengths. He kept his flesh between the Preakness and Belmont, trained brilliantly and received the most ringing endorsement you could get, as Ron Turcotte, rider of the immortal Secretariat, proclaimed Smarty Jones would win the Belmont by 25 lengths on the back page of the New York Post. But Smarty Jones wasn’t himself Belmont Day, and never got into a rhythm according to his jockey Stewart Elliott. It didn’t help that he was surrounded by both Rock Hard Ten and Eddington for most of the way until they had had enough, yet Smarty Jones was better than three lengths in front on the far turn. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Birdstone started coming…and kept coming….and kept coming until the lead evaporated and he passed Smarty Jones fifty yards from the wire to win by a length. It would prove to be the last start of Smarty Jones’ career.
BIG BROWN – 2008
Like Smarty Jones, Big Brown came into the Belmont undefeated off a pair of relatively easy wins in both the Derby and Preakness. But that’s where the similarities ended. His trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. had been suspended numerous times for medication violations, he was owned by a bunch of loud-mouth braggarts and had battled quarter crack problems his entire career. By the time the Belmont rolled around, saying he appeared to be a shell of the horse he was just five weeks earlier in Louisville was an understatement Still Dutrow spouted his mouth and the public believed, sending him to post as the 1-5 favorite. He never raised his legs. He got to within 3 lengths of the lead at one point but never actually had a chance to win the raise and was eased through the stretch as Da’Tara led them around Big Sandy the entire way as the longest price in the field at over 38-1.
CALIFORNIA CHROME – 2014
Like American Pharoah, California Chrome came into the Belmont off of a six race win streak and was the darling of the media and fans, called “Chromies,” alike. He was modestly bred, cost the proverbial ham sandwich to breed and was owned by a couple of blue collared guys who called themselves the “Dumb Ass Partners” and had a jackass on the back of their silks. Espinoza was getting his shot at redemption after the War Emblem debacle while his trainer Art Sherman was trying to prove that almost-80 was the new 40. He broke alertly, though Espinoza opted to take him off of the pace rather than go on with it, was in great position though wide turning for home but failed to fire through the final furlong and wound up in a dead heat for fourth as the 4-5 favorite as Tonalist posted the upset at better than 9-1.
By Anthony Stabile
Elite Eleven
Triple Crown Failures
After waiting 25 years for a Triple Crown winner, horse racing fans were spoiled in the 1970s by the time Affirmed became the eleventh horse to do it when he captured the Triple Crown with a heart-stopping victory over Alydar in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. After all, Secretariat did it spectacularly in 1973, the first since Citation back in 1948 and Seattle Slew completed the sweep in style, managing to stay undefeated through the 1977 “Test of the Champion.”
Little did they know, 37 years would come and go without another accomplishing the feat. Overall, 20 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before coming to the Big Apple to get their proverbial clocks cleaned, 13 of them since Affirmed alone. One of them, I'll Have Another back in 2012, didn't even make it to the starting gate as he was scratched the day before the event with a nagging tendon injury.
That can all change on Saturday, June 6th when American Pharoah will be looking for his seventh consecutive victory and to make it an even dozen who can say they won the Triple Crown in Thoroughbred racing.
Here's a look at the dirty dozen, if you will, that failed in their quest to become number 12 since Affirmed.
SPECTACULAR BID – 1979
Would there really be three in a row? It had never happened before, but Spectacular Bid was 1-5 in the Belmont despite a jockey in Ronnie Franklin that some would describe as mediocre while others would say that was insulting mediocrity and the fact that he stepped on a safety pin the day before the race. Whether it was the awful ride Franklin gave him or the pin that got him beat is still up for debate, as Coastal won the event as the 4-1 second choice. What isn’t is that “the greatest horse to ever look through a bridle,” according to his trainer Buddy Delp, couldn’t get the job done, leaving many to wonder if he couldn’t, who can?
PLEASANT COLONY – 1981
Perhaps the most boisterous trainer of his time, John Campo sure could back it up. He’d trained countless stakes winners and several Eclipse champions by the time Pleasant Colony rolled to a pair of heart-stopping scores in the Derby and Preakness in ’81. Then Belmont week came, and Campo didn’t say a word. He knew he was done. “He’d lost weight and was coming apart in front of my eyes,” Campo would tell me in an interview a few years before he passed away. He was right. Jockey Jorge Velasquez didn’t ride a normal scheduled and meditated most of the week before finishing third to Summing.
ALYSHEBA - 1987
Trained by Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg, the fact that Alysheba even made it to the Belmont in one piece overshadows the fact that he was beaten over 14 lengths by Derby and Preakness runner-up Bet Twice. In the Derby, his jockey Chris McCarron literally came out of the saddle in mid-stretch before recovering to win by ¾ of a length then got up in the final strides of the Preakness to win by a ½ length. And while he didn’t have the best trip in the Belmont, it’s hard to imagine he was going to make up that big of a margin.
SUNDAY SILENCE - 1989
It’s hard to mention his name without saying Easy Goer’s right afterwards and vice versa. It’s closest the sport had to a rivalry since Affirmed and Alydar and it still holds true today. Sunday Silence loved a wet track, Easy Goer didn’t and that was likely the difference in the Derby that was run in the mud. Their Preakness duel is widely considered one of the greatest races of all time, with Sunday Silence prevailing by a nose after a furious half-mile battle that seemed to last an eternity and surviving an inquiry that could have gone either way. Then they came to Belmont and Easy Goer exacted his revenge, thrashing his rival by eight lengths in a tour de force performance that proved who the better horse was.
SILVER CHARM – 1997
“One tough customer” is a good way to describe the gritty gray that first put trainer Bob Baffert in position to win the Crown. A hard-fought Derby score by a head over Captain Bodgit followed by an equally grueling victory over Free House by the same margin in the Preakness set the stage for the most highly anticipated Belmont in close to a decade. Silver Charm was in front turning for home and appeared to be home free but a resurging Touch Gold, who got off to a dismal start in the Preakness before flying up the inside to finish fourth, re-rallied under Chris McCarron, who gave one of the greatest rides in the history of the turf, to cut Silver Charm down by ¾ of a length.
REAL QUIET – 1998
“Bullet” Bob wasted little time in positioning himself to make history again after Real Quiet, known as “The Fish” for his narrow build, held off Victory Gallop in the Derby before drawing away from him in the Preakness, was 4-5 to win the Belmont. On the far turn, he looked like “chicken dinner” as the saying goes, as jockey Kent Desormeaux blasted off to a four length. But Victory Gallop came flying through the stretch under Gary Stevens, who just missed aboard Silver Charm the previous year, and nailed Real Quiet on the money by a nose despite being impeded in the stretch by his rival. The stewards would say after the photo was posted that Real Quiet would have been disqualified had he held on. It would have been interesting to see how that would have gone over with the 80,000 plus fans that made the grandstand shake that day.
CHARISMATIC – 1999
In November of ‘98 or February of ‘99, you could have claimed him from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas for $62,500. By June 5, he had earned $2 million dollars, had won the Lexington, Derby and Preakness and was facing, coincidentally, eleven others in his date with destiny. Unfortunately, the rumors that he wasn’t the soundest horse in the world were true and he coughed up the lead in deep stretch and wound up third after getting a questionable ride by the late, great Chris Antley, who it turned out was battling some old demons upon his return to New York, his old stomping grounds, in the days leading up to the race. Still, who can forget Antley, in tears, holding up Charismatic’s leg just yards after the finish in what would be the final race of the colts’ career.
WAR EMBLEM – 2002
A late edition to the Baffert barn after he was purchased privately after a gate-to-wire romp in the Illinois Derby, War Emblem led them from start to finish again in the Derby, his first start for Baffert before chasing a quick pace and holding off local longshot Magic Weisner in the Preakness. Unlike those before him however, War Emblem’s hopes essentially vanished as soon as the gates opened, as he stumbled badly at the start of the Belmont. He was never able to settle down under his rider Victor Espinoza and though he managed to put his head in front after rallying greenly along the inside down the backstretch, he faded terribly through the stretch while Sarava lit up the tote board to the tune of $142.50, the longest priced winner in the history of the Belmont.
FUNNY CIDE – 2003
Ahhhhh, the “Gutsy Gelding,” as legendary track announcer Tom Durkin coined. He became the first gelding to win the Derby in close to a century and the only New York Bred to ever do so. After defeating Empire Maker and the rest in the Derby by almost two lengths, Funny Cide rolled to a near tem length score in the Preakness under his rider Jose Santos. A crazy work in :57 and change five days before the Derby was the first sign that trouble was ahead and Funny Cide wound up on the lead in the Belmont over a sloppy track. He was done by the time they reached the quarter pole and Empire Maker, who many thought would be the one trying to win the Crown that season, defeated Ten Most Wanted with Funny Cide five lengths back in third.
SMARTY JONES – 2004
The first to try and complete the sweep while remaining undefeated since Seattle Slew back in 1977, Smarty Jones had won his eight previous starts, including the Derby over the slop at Churchill by almost three lengths and the Preakness by an astounding 11 ½ lengths. He kept his flesh between the Preakness and Belmont, trained brilliantly and received the most ringing endorsement you could get, as Ron Turcotte, rider of the immortal Secretariat, proclaimed Smarty Jones would win the Belmont by 25 lengths on the back page of the New York Post. But Smarty Jones wasn’t himself Belmont Day, and never got into a rhythm according to his jockey Stewart Elliott. It didn’t help that he was surrounded by both Rock Hard Ten and Eddington for most of the way until they had had enough, yet Smarty Jones was better than three lengths in front on the far turn. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Birdstone started coming…and kept coming….and kept coming until the lead evaporated and he passed Smarty Jones fifty yards from the wire to win by a length. It would prove to be the last start of Smarty Jones’ career.
BIG BROWN – 2008
Like Smarty Jones, Big Brown came into the Belmont undefeated off a pair of relatively easy wins in both the Derby and Preakness. But that’s where the similarities ended. His trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. had been suspended numerous times for medication violations, he was owned by a bunch of loud-mouth braggarts and had battled quarter crack problems his entire career. By the time the Belmont rolled around, saying he appeared to be a shell of the horse he was just five weeks earlier in Louisville was an understatement Still Dutrow spouted his mouth and the public believed, sending him to post as the 1-5 favorite. He never raised his legs. He got to within 3 lengths of the lead at one point but never actually had a chance to win the raise and was eased through the stretch as Da’Tara led them around Big Sandy the entire way as the longest price in the field at over 38-1.
CALIFORNIA CHROME – 2014
Like American Pharoah, California Chrome came into the Belmont off of a six race win streak and was the darling of the media and fans, called “Chromies,” alike. He was modestly bred, cost the proverbial ham sandwich to breed and was owned by a couple of blue collared guys who called themselves the “Dumb Ass Partners” and had a jackass on the back of their silks. Espinoza was getting his shot at redemption after the War Emblem debacle while his trainer Art Sherman was trying to prove that almost-80 was the new 40. He broke alertly, though Espinoza opted to take him off of the pace rather than go on with it, was in great position though wide turning for home but failed to fire through the final furlong and wound up in a dead heat for fourth as the 4-5 favorite as Tonalist posted the upset at better than 9-1.
Belmont Stakes: Can American Pharoah Win the Triple Crown?
by Carlo Campanella
American Pharoah proved he's the best 3-year-old of his generation by sweeping the 2015 Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, but as he looks to win the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown, we know that 8 of the last 14 Belmont winners have paid 10-1 or higher ($22), including Sarava ($142), Birdstone ($74), Da’ Tara ($79) and Ruler On Ice ($51).
It's extremely difficult to win the Triple Crown. Winning 3 consecutive Grade I races is tought enough, but asking a young 3-year-old horse to win all 3 legs of the Triple Crown, at different race tracks, at different distances and all in a span of 5 weeks makes it nearly impossible. It's been 37 years- back in 1978 - since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown. The 1970s treated us to an unbelievable 3 Triple Crown winners, in the form of Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977) and "Big Red," Secretariat (1973)- Three of the best thoroughbreds to ever set a hoof on a race track.
It's so difficult to win the Triple Crown that we've only had 11 Triple Crown winners since 1919. Since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978, we've actually had more horses fail to win the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, than win it! Since 1979, we've seen 12 horses win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to lose in the Belmont, usually as the prohibitive favorite. The last of these occured last year, in 2014, when California Chrome swept America's imagination as a "blue collar horse" only to lose in the Belmont.
In 2012 another horse from Southern California, I'll Have Another, trained by Doug O'Neil, would have been 2 to 5 had he run in the Belmont, but came up lame before the race and had to scratch out of the Belmont. The other 11 all ran in the Belmont Stakes, only to be upset on the track as the public's betting favorites.
In 2008 most of the country was confident that the Triple Crown drought was over when Big Brown crushed his Derby foes from the outside 20-post and then romped in the Preakness. Turning for home, Big Brown "failed to deliver" and was eased while longshot D' Tara walked into the winner's circle.
In 2004 Smarty Jones was considered a "lock" to win the Belmont. He cruised to the lead around Belmont's sweeping turn before he tired late in the 1 1/2 mile race and Nick Zito's BirdStone nabbed him at the wire.
In 2003 the New York-bred, Funny Cide. finished 3rd to Empire Maker, the horse that should have beat him in the Kentuckly Derby.
In 2002 Bob Baffert, the trainer of American Pharoah, watched his speedy trainee, War Emblem, win the Derby and Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion with jockey Victor Espinoza in the saddle. He later finshed 8th, losing by 19 lengths to Sarava in the Belmont. Interestingly, Victor Espinoza was also the rider of California Chrome in 2014, when losing his second chance to ride a Triple Crown winner. If that name sounds fimiliar, it is, as Espinoza gets an incredibly lucky THIRD chance at the Triple Crown aboard American Pharoah this year!
The list is filled with regally bred thoroughbreds like Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998), Silver Charm (1997), Sunday Silence (1989), Alysheba (1987), Pleasant Colony (1981) and Spectacular Bid (1979)...All great race horses that couldn't win all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
On Saturday, June 6th, the tactical American Pharoah will be the 13th horse to get a chance to win the Triple Crown and all he has to do is what the other 12 horses before him couldn't! Win, or lose, I promise that it will be the most exciting 2 minutes of sports you'll see in quite a long time.
Best of luck for us -- Carlo.
by Carlo Campanella
American Pharoah proved he's the best 3-year-old of his generation by sweeping the 2015 Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, but as he looks to win the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown, we know that 8 of the last 14 Belmont winners have paid 10-1 or higher ($22), including Sarava ($142), Birdstone ($74), Da’ Tara ($79) and Ruler On Ice ($51).
It's extremely difficult to win the Triple Crown. Winning 3 consecutive Grade I races is tought enough, but asking a young 3-year-old horse to win all 3 legs of the Triple Crown, at different race tracks, at different distances and all in a span of 5 weeks makes it nearly impossible. It's been 37 years- back in 1978 - since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown. The 1970s treated us to an unbelievable 3 Triple Crown winners, in the form of Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977) and "Big Red," Secretariat (1973)- Three of the best thoroughbreds to ever set a hoof on a race track.
It's so difficult to win the Triple Crown that we've only had 11 Triple Crown winners since 1919. Since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978, we've actually had more horses fail to win the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, than win it! Since 1979, we've seen 12 horses win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to lose in the Belmont, usually as the prohibitive favorite. The last of these occured last year, in 2014, when California Chrome swept America's imagination as a "blue collar horse" only to lose in the Belmont.
In 2012 another horse from Southern California, I'll Have Another, trained by Doug O'Neil, would have been 2 to 5 had he run in the Belmont, but came up lame before the race and had to scratch out of the Belmont. The other 11 all ran in the Belmont Stakes, only to be upset on the track as the public's betting favorites.
In 2008 most of the country was confident that the Triple Crown drought was over when Big Brown crushed his Derby foes from the outside 20-post and then romped in the Preakness. Turning for home, Big Brown "failed to deliver" and was eased while longshot D' Tara walked into the winner's circle.
In 2004 Smarty Jones was considered a "lock" to win the Belmont. He cruised to the lead around Belmont's sweeping turn before he tired late in the 1 1/2 mile race and Nick Zito's BirdStone nabbed him at the wire.
In 2003 the New York-bred, Funny Cide. finished 3rd to Empire Maker, the horse that should have beat him in the Kentuckly Derby.
In 2002 Bob Baffert, the trainer of American Pharoah, watched his speedy trainee, War Emblem, win the Derby and Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion with jockey Victor Espinoza in the saddle. He later finshed 8th, losing by 19 lengths to Sarava in the Belmont. Interestingly, Victor Espinoza was also the rider of California Chrome in 2014, when losing his second chance to ride a Triple Crown winner. If that name sounds fimiliar, it is, as Espinoza gets an incredibly lucky THIRD chance at the Triple Crown aboard American Pharoah this year!
The list is filled with regally bred thoroughbreds like Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998), Silver Charm (1997), Sunday Silence (1989), Alysheba (1987), Pleasant Colony (1981) and Spectacular Bid (1979)...All great race horses that couldn't win all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.
On Saturday, June 6th, the tactical American Pharoah will be the 13th horse to get a chance to win the Triple Crown and all he has to do is what the other 12 horses before him couldn't! Win, or lose, I promise that it will be the most exciting 2 minutes of sports you'll see in quite a long time.
Best of luck for us -- Carlo.
Beating the Belmont
By Bruce Marshall
We'll be making the trek back to New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. After all, we've been there for the last four chances (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004, Big Brown in 2008, and California Chrome last year) horses have had at the Triple Crown, so we owe it to American Pharoah to see if he can achieve what those four champions and countless others couldn't.
For us, the electricity at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line is like no other sporting event we have witnessed in person. And we've seen plenty, from Super Bowls to Rose Bowls and the Kentucky Derby.
And if they can call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, they can call the Belmont the most exciting two-and-a-half minutes in sports.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where average race fans have almost no chance to show up on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and actually see the race, or Pimlico, where getting a view of the Preakness is almost impossible unless you can squeeze into the apron or get one of those hard-to-find seats in the grandstand, the Belmont really is a people's event. Anyone can attend, no reservations required (although they're suggested if you actually want a seat in the expansive grandstand).
Belmont's grand size has something to do with it. The big track can easily accommodate crowds over 100,000 without having to funnel fans into the infield (indeed, there is no infield seating, or standing, at Belmont). Moreover, when we say anyone can show up and see the race, we mean it; very affordable grandstand ticket sales the day of the race actually get patrons onto the apron, where if they can find a spot or otherwise crane their necks, they can watch the Belmont unfold right in front of their eyes. By spending a few more bucks, any fan can get into the Club House on Belmont Day and get a view closer to the finish line in a bit more comfy (but still crowded) surroundings. Showing up on race day for the Derby or Preakness might allow a fan to get on to the grounds, but not out to the apron to actually watch the race.
And though some have romanticized about the "infield experience" at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, we have long felt that spectacle is overrated; it often regresses into one more reminiscent of NASCAR events than a horse race, which is one reason Pimlico has stopped allowing patrons to being in their own beer for the Preakness. But we don't have to worry about that at Belmont, because the infield retains its dignity (meaning no patrons) at all times.
Moreover, transportation to the track is a snap via the Long Island Railroad; there's no reason to brave the Long Island Expressway with your car. Trains drop you off right at Belmont Park's own station, and plenty of extra trains are running from Penn Station on Belmont day. In the past, that's been the way to go on our trips up from Washington and Philadelphia; we'll just leave our car at the Metropark station off the Garden State Parkway, take an NJ Transit train into Manhattan, then switch to the LIRR at Penn Station. Convenient, somewhat comfortable, and without the sort of massive headaches associated with parking in Louisville for Derby Day, or in Baltimore for the Preakness, especially since there's no significant parking available at Pimlico even on a day without a big crowd.
Belmont Park, however, is almost palatial, a racing facility that wreaks of elegance and grandeur. When reconstruction was finished in 1968, Belmont Park became a real jewel in the horse racing world, and it still is today. It's also probably the last "mega-track" we'll see built in our lifetimes; facilities built since, such as the Texas tracks in Dallas-Fort Worth (Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie) and Houston (Sam Houston Park), have no use for such expansive grandstand seating. Indeed, the "new Belmont" (although even it is now 46 years old) will probably live on as the last great race track built in the States for a long, long time.
We remember plenty of exciting Belmonts where no Triple Crown was at stake, although we have to admit that there is something special about being out on Long Island when there's a chance a horse can complete the trick.
As mentioned before, We've been there for the last four tries (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and California Chrome), and can say that the excitement and anticipation before those races exceeded that of any other sports events we've seen in person during our lifetime, including Super Bowls, Rose Bowls, and various other championship games.
The New York flavor permeates the track; we recall getting a kick out of seeing the Giants' Michael Strahan mingling with the masses on Smarty Jones' try at the Crown in 2004, and noticed how Jimmy Fallon was enjoying himself tremendously when hanging out with the crowd when Big Brown tried and failed to win the Triple Crown in 2008. And who couldn't notice Bo Derek as she watched Big Brown in 2008, either. Other prominent New Yorkers make sure to be in attendance as well. In fact, we've been so enthralled by our Belmont experiences that when we are asked what are the top sports events someone should see in their lifetime, the Belmont, when a Triple Crown is at stake, now tops our list.
Indeed, the drama and allure of the Belmont is probably best exemplified not when the Secretariats and Seattle Slews and Affirmeds won the Triple Crown, but rather when all of the great horses have tried and failed. Follow along.
In the half-century plus that I've been following the sport, this year makes 19 horses try to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont. Only three of them, in a 5-year span in the mid '70s (Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, Affirmed in '78), turned the trick. Almost all of those who came into the Belmont looked a good bet to win, just as Big Brown did in 2008 and California Chrome a year ago, the last times a Triple Crown was on the line at the Belmont.
Those favored horses from the past included Spectacular Bid.
Veteran racegoers all roll their eyes when the name Spectacular Bid pops up. This was a magnificent thoroughbred. Ask a lot of knowledgeable railbirds about who was the better horse between the Bid and Secretariat, and you'd be surprised at how many would opt for the Bid.
But he couldn't win the Belmont.
The year was 1979, and for all the world it looked as if we were going to have back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew was unbeaten when he turned the trick two years earlier, and Affirmed had proven, if nothing else, that he was as gallant as any thoroughbred champ when he outdueled Alydar in all three legs the year before. Neither, however, looked like Spectacular Bid when winning the first two legs of Crown. The Bid, dominant at the Derby and Preakness, would go off at 1/5 in New York, shorter odds than those on Big Brown in 2008 or any of the other Triple Crown hopefuls in recent Belmonts.
The Bid was Dr. Fager-like good, one of those etched indelibly in the minds of any racing enthusiast who ever saw him run. And he looked like he would put the Belmont into his satchel, too, especially turning for home 30 years ago, leading the field. But that final eighth can be a bear, and the Bid, who, like any three-year-old at this stage had never had to run this mile-and-a-half distance, began to waver. Jockey Ronnie Franklin hit the accelerator a bit too soon on the Bid, down the backstretch, and even though he looked clear at the top of the stretch, Franklin had asked for too much, too soon. Suddenly, William Haggin Perry's colt, Coastal, rolled up on the outside, and, to the astonishment of the crowd, went past the Bid in the final sixteenth. Coastal won; the Bid faded to third.
Had there never been a horse named "Upset" to deal Man 'o War his only loss, we might have instead had the word "coastal" instead of "upset" referring to that surprise-defeat term. But indeed, Spectacular Bid had lost. And though trainer Bud Delp lamented at the time that the Bid had stepped on a pin that morning and hurt his foot, most racegoers chalked that down to sour grapes on Delp's part. In the Belmont, The Bid had looked very much like a champ for 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/8 miles, even 1 7/16...but not at a mile-and-a-half.
The pin didn't beat Spectacular Bid. The Belmont did.
Like it has for a lot of great horses over the past 40-odd years. It has now been 36 years since Steve Cauthen and Affirmed fought off Alydar in the stretch to win the '78 Belmont and become the last Triple Crown winner, and when the late, great race caller Chic Anderson, in his last Belmont, told viewers that "We'll test these two to the wire!" But in that span (since 1964), as mentioned above, 19 horses have won the first two legs of the Crown. Sixteen of those, including some truly great runners, have failed. We can remember back to 1964, when the great Canadian champ, Northern Dancer, destined to become the sire of all sires, won the first two legs, seeing off the classy Hill Rise in a grueling Kentucky Derby, then winning more handily at the Preakness. On to the Belmont Stakes, which, for a short span between 1963-67, was run at nearby Aqueduct, while the Belmont facility was rebuilt. An odd sight it was, those Belmonts at Aqueduct, where the race started at the head of the far turn at that 1 1/8-mile oval. And Northern Dancer, under Bill Hartack, was looking awfully good for a mile and-a-quarter in that '64 Belmont, and seemed poised at the head of the stretch to add the final leg of the Crown to his collection. But Hartack could not find another gear, where Roman Brother and eventual winner Quadrangle could.
It was much the same two years later, when Kauai King, a Native Dancer colt under the savvy Don Brumfield, won the first two legs and was ready to become the first since Citation in '48 to win the Crown. Amberoid, however, had other plans that afternoon at Aqueduct, and we would have to wait a bit longer for another Triple Crown winner.
Racing aficionados still cringe at what might have been when the Belmont Stakes returned to the refurbished and rebuilt Belmont Park in 1968...an asterisk Triple Crown winner! That's because Calumet's Forward Pass had been "awarded" the Kentucky Derby win two days after finishing second in Louisville when Dancer's Image (another Native Dancer colt) had been disqualified after traces of bute were found in his post-race urine sample.
That controversy was one of the biggest in sports in a very controversial year. The bute, reportedly administered by legendary Churchill Downs track vet Dr. Alex Harthill the week before the race, should have flushed out of the Dancer's system in the intervening 152 hours (long before, in fact), but traces were found in the post-race sample. (Bute was legal at most North American tracks in '68, and had been legal the year before and year after in Kentucky, but not '68). Eventually, it took several trips through the courts before the fiasco was settled years later, and Forward Pass' name stayed in the record books as the "official" winner. Insiders have since told us that track officials were going to overlook the test and resultant controversy until Wathen Knebelkamp, then Churchill Downs' president, quickly went to the press with the news. The two weeks until the Preakness became quite a media circus, with Forward Pass now the winner (although it wouldn't become official for years and several trips to the courts).
As it was, the big, powerful Calumet charge went into Baltimore as the Derby winner, then romped home in the Preakness in Big Brown-like fashion, and the thought of the asterisk Triple Crown winner became very real. It was then off to Belmont Park, where the newly-refurbished, palatial facility welcomed back the Belmont Stakes that June 1. And for an awfully long time it looked like Forward Pass was in position to win, leading into mid-stretch, before local favorite Stage Door Johnny, under Heliodoro Gustines, found another gear and had just enough time to make a late charge, collaring Forward Pass in the last sixteenth and winning by less than a length. Racing enthusiasts sighed in relief, as there would indeed be no asterisk Triple Crown winner. But we still hadn't had a Crown winner since 1948.
Enter 1969, and that all seemed to change with Majestic Prince, under the irascible Hartack and trained by the legendary ex-jockey Johnny Longden (who won the Triple Crown in '43 with Count Fleet). Majestic Prince, for a time, was Secretariat before Secretariat. He was aptly-named and certainly looked the part of a Triple Crown winner, a big chestnut who prepped in California, and, undefeated, saw off the talented Arts & Letters in bruising Derby and Preakness stretch drives. This would be the one to win the Crown, or so many thought until Longden announced that he didn't want the Prince to run in the Belmont. He didn't like the way he came out of the Preakness, and thought the mile and a half was too much for the colt. Canadian owner Frank McMahon had other ideas, however; the Prince would run in New York.
But "The Pumper" proved prophetic. For a time, many blamed Hartack for the Prince's Belmont failure, allowing the pace to unfold snail-like
26 first quarter!) instead of dictating the pace in a race that was there for him to take on a silver platter. Instead, it set up perfectly for Arts & Letters, under Braulio Baeza, to win handily.
Longden was right; the Prince wasn't ready for the Belmont. He was injured in the race and never ran again. The Belmont had claimed another would-be Triple Crown winner.
Except for that brief patch in the mid '70s, far more Belmont Triple Crown failures than successes ensued in the next four decades. South American Canonero II was the rage after romping in the Derby and Preakness in 1971. But he came a cropper in the Belmont, failing to fire at the top of the stretch while a longshot named Pass Catcher ran away and eventually held off the charging Jim French at the wire. A classy Pleasant Colony looked the part of a Crown winner in 1981, but finished 3rd to Summing in his try at the Belmont. Alysheba took his stab in 1987, but was outrun by Bet Twice and two others in New York. And then there was Sunday Silence, who had an Affirmed-Alydar type duel going with Easy Goer in '89 after narrowly winning the first two legs of the Crown. Only Sunday Silence wasn't Affirmed-like in the Belmont, Easy Goer romping home.
The last eighteen years have seen eight horses fail to win the Belmont after clearing the first two Triple Crown hurdles. The great Silver Charm, owned by Bob & Bev Lewis and ridden by Gary Stevens, looked worthy-enough in '97, and, after finally putting away nemesis Free House in deep stretch in New York, looked like a Crown winner. Except that the wily Chris McCarron had wheeled Touch Gold on the far outside, out of Silver Charm's view, and slipped past the grey horse to win narrowly in the last 50 yards.
That was little drama compared to 1998, however, when Mike Pegram's Real Quiet, trained by Bob Baffert, after impressive wins vs. good fields at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, was suddenly three lengths clear mid-stretch at the Belmont, cruising home, seemingly, under a giddy Kent Desormeaux. Only that Stevens would get his Belmont revenge, thrown back in the saddle by a violent stretch charge from his mount, Victory Gallop, who nailed Real Quiet at the wire (right). It was as close as a horse could come to winning the Crown, and not getting it. Would we ever see another Crown winner, some had to wonder?
Forward to 1999, when another Lewis horse, Charismatic, looked ready to nail the Crown after winning the first two legs. The Belmont proved too much, however, and the valiant colt faded late, broke down, and lost to Lemon Drop Kid. More of the same frustration a few years later, as first War Emblem, looking every bit Smarty Jones-like in winning the Derby and Preakness in '02, failed badly at the Belmont, a distant 8th behind winner Sarava. In 2003, New York was a dither with home-state bred gelding Funny Cide on the cusp of the Triple Crown, looking awfully hard to beat, too, after his Preakness win. But Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted wore down Jose Santos' mount in the stretch.
Then, Smarty Jones appeared a near shoe-in the next year in '04, with his contingent of vocal supporters having made the short trip up I-95 from Philadelphia and the rest of the Delaware Valley to cheer him on. But Smarty Jones found that last eighth of a mile a furlong too far. Birdstone, with Edgar Prado up, collared Smarty in the stretch. Again, we would have to wait, and after Big Brown's failure in 2008, when he pulled up on the far turn and Da'Tara romped home, the drought between Triple Crown winners had reached an all-time dry patch. Indeed, after Funny Cide failed in 2003, we exceeded the gap of 25 years between Citation (in '48) and Secretariat. This year marks 37 since Affirmed fought off Alydar and last turned the trick.
A reminder of how difficult it really is to win the Triple Crown is how many other great horses have tried and failed at the Belmont. Rare is the year when everything goes right for a horse in the Triple Crown quest, as it did for Secretariat in '73. That year, Secretariat had no real serious, Arts & Letters, Alydar, or Easy Goer-like challengers. The tracks rolled their surfaces hard in hopes of record-breaking runs. And the weather came up good for Secretariat, too, unlike stable-mate Riva Ridge the previous year (whose Crown bid ended at a muddy Preakness vs. longshot Bee Bee Bee), or the great Damascus in '67, whose Derby was ruined by an off-track (and a loss to Proud Clarion).
Remember, a lot of big names have only won two legs of the crown, 48 of them, in fact, compared to just 11 who pulled the hat-trick and won all three. Besides Damascus and Riva Ridge, other equine notables like Native Dancer, Nashua, and even Man O'War (who didn't run in the Derby), and dozens of others, only won two legs of the Triple Crown.
But as American Pharoah might discover on Long Island, the Belmont can be a tough hurdle for even the greatest horses to overcome.
Like Spectacular Bid.
By Bruce Marshall
We'll be making the trek back to New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 6. After all, we've been there for the last four chances (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004, Big Brown in 2008, and California Chrome last year) horses have had at the Triple Crown, so we owe it to American Pharoah to see if he can achieve what those four champions and countless others couldn't.
For us, the electricity at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line is like no other sporting event we have witnessed in person. And we've seen plenty, from Super Bowls to Rose Bowls and the Kentucky Derby.
And if they can call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, they can call the Belmont the most exciting two-and-a-half minutes in sports.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where average race fans have almost no chance to show up on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and actually see the race, or Pimlico, where getting a view of the Preakness is almost impossible unless you can squeeze into the apron or get one of those hard-to-find seats in the grandstand, the Belmont really is a people's event. Anyone can attend, no reservations required (although they're suggested if you actually want a seat in the expansive grandstand).
Belmont's grand size has something to do with it. The big track can easily accommodate crowds over 100,000 without having to funnel fans into the infield (indeed, there is no infield seating, or standing, at Belmont). Moreover, when we say anyone can show up and see the race, we mean it; very affordable grandstand ticket sales the day of the race actually get patrons onto the apron, where if they can find a spot or otherwise crane their necks, they can watch the Belmont unfold right in front of their eyes. By spending a few more bucks, any fan can get into the Club House on Belmont Day and get a view closer to the finish line in a bit more comfy (but still crowded) surroundings. Showing up on race day for the Derby or Preakness might allow a fan to get on to the grounds, but not out to the apron to actually watch the race.
And though some have romanticized about the "infield experience" at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, we have long felt that spectacle is overrated; it often regresses into one more reminiscent of NASCAR events than a horse race, which is one reason Pimlico has stopped allowing patrons to being in their own beer for the Preakness. But we don't have to worry about that at Belmont, because the infield retains its dignity (meaning no patrons) at all times.
Moreover, transportation to the track is a snap via the Long Island Railroad; there's no reason to brave the Long Island Expressway with your car. Trains drop you off right at Belmont Park's own station, and plenty of extra trains are running from Penn Station on Belmont day. In the past, that's been the way to go on our trips up from Washington and Philadelphia; we'll just leave our car at the Metropark station off the Garden State Parkway, take an NJ Transit train into Manhattan, then switch to the LIRR at Penn Station. Convenient, somewhat comfortable, and without the sort of massive headaches associated with parking in Louisville for Derby Day, or in Baltimore for the Preakness, especially since there's no significant parking available at Pimlico even on a day without a big crowd.
Belmont Park, however, is almost palatial, a racing facility that wreaks of elegance and grandeur. When reconstruction was finished in 1968, Belmont Park became a real jewel in the horse racing world, and it still is today. It's also probably the last "mega-track" we'll see built in our lifetimes; facilities built since, such as the Texas tracks in Dallas-Fort Worth (Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie) and Houston (Sam Houston Park), have no use for such expansive grandstand seating. Indeed, the "new Belmont" (although even it is now 46 years old) will probably live on as the last great race track built in the States for a long, long time.
We remember plenty of exciting Belmonts where no Triple Crown was at stake, although we have to admit that there is something special about being out on Long Island when there's a chance a horse can complete the trick.
As mentioned before, We've been there for the last four tries (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and California Chrome), and can say that the excitement and anticipation before those races exceeded that of any other sports events we've seen in person during our lifetime, including Super Bowls, Rose Bowls, and various other championship games.
The New York flavor permeates the track; we recall getting a kick out of seeing the Giants' Michael Strahan mingling with the masses on Smarty Jones' try at the Crown in 2004, and noticed how Jimmy Fallon was enjoying himself tremendously when hanging out with the crowd when Big Brown tried and failed to win the Triple Crown in 2008. And who couldn't notice Bo Derek as she watched Big Brown in 2008, either. Other prominent New Yorkers make sure to be in attendance as well. In fact, we've been so enthralled by our Belmont experiences that when we are asked what are the top sports events someone should see in their lifetime, the Belmont, when a Triple Crown is at stake, now tops our list.
Indeed, the drama and allure of the Belmont is probably best exemplified not when the Secretariats and Seattle Slews and Affirmeds won the Triple Crown, but rather when all of the great horses have tried and failed. Follow along.
In the half-century plus that I've been following the sport, this year makes 19 horses try to win the Triple Crown at the Belmont. Only three of them, in a 5-year span in the mid '70s (Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, Affirmed in '78), turned the trick. Almost all of those who came into the Belmont looked a good bet to win, just as Big Brown did in 2008 and California Chrome a year ago, the last times a Triple Crown was on the line at the Belmont.
Those favored horses from the past included Spectacular Bid.
Veteran racegoers all roll their eyes when the name Spectacular Bid pops up. This was a magnificent thoroughbred. Ask a lot of knowledgeable railbirds about who was the better horse between the Bid and Secretariat, and you'd be surprised at how many would opt for the Bid.
But he couldn't win the Belmont.
The year was 1979, and for all the world it looked as if we were going to have back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew was unbeaten when he turned the trick two years earlier, and Affirmed had proven, if nothing else, that he was as gallant as any thoroughbred champ when he outdueled Alydar in all three legs the year before. Neither, however, looked like Spectacular Bid when winning the first two legs of Crown. The Bid, dominant at the Derby and Preakness, would go off at 1/5 in New York, shorter odds than those on Big Brown in 2008 or any of the other Triple Crown hopefuls in recent Belmonts.
The Bid was Dr. Fager-like good, one of those etched indelibly in the minds of any racing enthusiast who ever saw him run. And he looked like he would put the Belmont into his satchel, too, especially turning for home 30 years ago, leading the field. But that final eighth can be a bear, and the Bid, who, like any three-year-old at this stage had never had to run this mile-and-a-half distance, began to waver. Jockey Ronnie Franklin hit the accelerator a bit too soon on the Bid, down the backstretch, and even though he looked clear at the top of the stretch, Franklin had asked for too much, too soon. Suddenly, William Haggin Perry's colt, Coastal, rolled up on the outside, and, to the astonishment of the crowd, went past the Bid in the final sixteenth. Coastal won; the Bid faded to third.
Had there never been a horse named "Upset" to deal Man 'o War his only loss, we might have instead had the word "coastal" instead of "upset" referring to that surprise-defeat term. But indeed, Spectacular Bid had lost. And though trainer Bud Delp lamented at the time that the Bid had stepped on a pin that morning and hurt his foot, most racegoers chalked that down to sour grapes on Delp's part. In the Belmont, The Bid had looked very much like a champ for 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/8 miles, even 1 7/16...but not at a mile-and-a-half.
The pin didn't beat Spectacular Bid. The Belmont did.
Like it has for a lot of great horses over the past 40-odd years. It has now been 36 years since Steve Cauthen and Affirmed fought off Alydar in the stretch to win the '78 Belmont and become the last Triple Crown winner, and when the late, great race caller Chic Anderson, in his last Belmont, told viewers that "We'll test these two to the wire!" But in that span (since 1964), as mentioned above, 19 horses have won the first two legs of the Crown. Sixteen of those, including some truly great runners, have failed. We can remember back to 1964, when the great Canadian champ, Northern Dancer, destined to become the sire of all sires, won the first two legs, seeing off the classy Hill Rise in a grueling Kentucky Derby, then winning more handily at the Preakness. On to the Belmont Stakes, which, for a short span between 1963-67, was run at nearby Aqueduct, while the Belmont facility was rebuilt. An odd sight it was, those Belmonts at Aqueduct, where the race started at the head of the far turn at that 1 1/8-mile oval. And Northern Dancer, under Bill Hartack, was looking awfully good for a mile and-a-quarter in that '64 Belmont, and seemed poised at the head of the stretch to add the final leg of the Crown to his collection. But Hartack could not find another gear, where Roman Brother and eventual winner Quadrangle could.
It was much the same two years later, when Kauai King, a Native Dancer colt under the savvy Don Brumfield, won the first two legs and was ready to become the first since Citation in '48 to win the Crown. Amberoid, however, had other plans that afternoon at Aqueduct, and we would have to wait a bit longer for another Triple Crown winner.
Racing aficionados still cringe at what might have been when the Belmont Stakes returned to the refurbished and rebuilt Belmont Park in 1968...an asterisk Triple Crown winner! That's because Calumet's Forward Pass had been "awarded" the Kentucky Derby win two days after finishing second in Louisville when Dancer's Image (another Native Dancer colt) had been disqualified after traces of bute were found in his post-race urine sample.
That controversy was one of the biggest in sports in a very controversial year. The bute, reportedly administered by legendary Churchill Downs track vet Dr. Alex Harthill the week before the race, should have flushed out of the Dancer's system in the intervening 152 hours (long before, in fact), but traces were found in the post-race sample. (Bute was legal at most North American tracks in '68, and had been legal the year before and year after in Kentucky, but not '68). Eventually, it took several trips through the courts before the fiasco was settled years later, and Forward Pass' name stayed in the record books as the "official" winner. Insiders have since told us that track officials were going to overlook the test and resultant controversy until Wathen Knebelkamp, then Churchill Downs' president, quickly went to the press with the news. The two weeks until the Preakness became quite a media circus, with Forward Pass now the winner (although it wouldn't become official for years and several trips to the courts).
As it was, the big, powerful Calumet charge went into Baltimore as the Derby winner, then romped home in the Preakness in Big Brown-like fashion, and the thought of the asterisk Triple Crown winner became very real. It was then off to Belmont Park, where the newly-refurbished, palatial facility welcomed back the Belmont Stakes that June 1. And for an awfully long time it looked like Forward Pass was in position to win, leading into mid-stretch, before local favorite Stage Door Johnny, under Heliodoro Gustines, found another gear and had just enough time to make a late charge, collaring Forward Pass in the last sixteenth and winning by less than a length. Racing enthusiasts sighed in relief, as there would indeed be no asterisk Triple Crown winner. But we still hadn't had a Crown winner since 1948.
Enter 1969, and that all seemed to change with Majestic Prince, under the irascible Hartack and trained by the legendary ex-jockey Johnny Longden (who won the Triple Crown in '43 with Count Fleet). Majestic Prince, for a time, was Secretariat before Secretariat. He was aptly-named and certainly looked the part of a Triple Crown winner, a big chestnut who prepped in California, and, undefeated, saw off the talented Arts & Letters in bruising Derby and Preakness stretch drives. This would be the one to win the Crown, or so many thought until Longden announced that he didn't want the Prince to run in the Belmont. He didn't like the way he came out of the Preakness, and thought the mile and a half was too much for the colt. Canadian owner Frank McMahon had other ideas, however; the Prince would run in New York.
But "The Pumper" proved prophetic. For a time, many blamed Hartack for the Prince's Belmont failure, allowing the pace to unfold snail-like
26 first quarter!) instead of dictating the pace in a race that was there for him to take on a silver platter. Instead, it set up perfectly for Arts & Letters, under Braulio Baeza, to win handily.Longden was right; the Prince wasn't ready for the Belmont. He was injured in the race and never ran again. The Belmont had claimed another would-be Triple Crown winner.
Except for that brief patch in the mid '70s, far more Belmont Triple Crown failures than successes ensued in the next four decades. South American Canonero II was the rage after romping in the Derby and Preakness in 1971. But he came a cropper in the Belmont, failing to fire at the top of the stretch while a longshot named Pass Catcher ran away and eventually held off the charging Jim French at the wire. A classy Pleasant Colony looked the part of a Crown winner in 1981, but finished 3rd to Summing in his try at the Belmont. Alysheba took his stab in 1987, but was outrun by Bet Twice and two others in New York. And then there was Sunday Silence, who had an Affirmed-Alydar type duel going with Easy Goer in '89 after narrowly winning the first two legs of the Crown. Only Sunday Silence wasn't Affirmed-like in the Belmont, Easy Goer romping home.
The last eighteen years have seen eight horses fail to win the Belmont after clearing the first two Triple Crown hurdles. The great Silver Charm, owned by Bob & Bev Lewis and ridden by Gary Stevens, looked worthy-enough in '97, and, after finally putting away nemesis Free House in deep stretch in New York, looked like a Crown winner. Except that the wily Chris McCarron had wheeled Touch Gold on the far outside, out of Silver Charm's view, and slipped past the grey horse to win narrowly in the last 50 yards.
That was little drama compared to 1998, however, when Mike Pegram's Real Quiet, trained by Bob Baffert, after impressive wins vs. good fields at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, was suddenly three lengths clear mid-stretch at the Belmont, cruising home, seemingly, under a giddy Kent Desormeaux. Only that Stevens would get his Belmont revenge, thrown back in the saddle by a violent stretch charge from his mount, Victory Gallop, who nailed Real Quiet at the wire (right). It was as close as a horse could come to winning the Crown, and not getting it. Would we ever see another Crown winner, some had to wonder?
Forward to 1999, when another Lewis horse, Charismatic, looked ready to nail the Crown after winning the first two legs. The Belmont proved too much, however, and the valiant colt faded late, broke down, and lost to Lemon Drop Kid. More of the same frustration a few years later, as first War Emblem, looking every bit Smarty Jones-like in winning the Derby and Preakness in '02, failed badly at the Belmont, a distant 8th behind winner Sarava. In 2003, New York was a dither with home-state bred gelding Funny Cide on the cusp of the Triple Crown, looking awfully hard to beat, too, after his Preakness win. But Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted wore down Jose Santos' mount in the stretch.
Then, Smarty Jones appeared a near shoe-in the next year in '04, with his contingent of vocal supporters having made the short trip up I-95 from Philadelphia and the rest of the Delaware Valley to cheer him on. But Smarty Jones found that last eighth of a mile a furlong too far. Birdstone, with Edgar Prado up, collared Smarty in the stretch. Again, we would have to wait, and after Big Brown's failure in 2008, when he pulled up on the far turn and Da'Tara romped home, the drought between Triple Crown winners had reached an all-time dry patch. Indeed, after Funny Cide failed in 2003, we exceeded the gap of 25 years between Citation (in '48) and Secretariat. This year marks 37 since Affirmed fought off Alydar and last turned the trick.
A reminder of how difficult it really is to win the Triple Crown is how many other great horses have tried and failed at the Belmont. Rare is the year when everything goes right for a horse in the Triple Crown quest, as it did for Secretariat in '73. That year, Secretariat had no real serious, Arts & Letters, Alydar, or Easy Goer-like challengers. The tracks rolled their surfaces hard in hopes of record-breaking runs. And the weather came up good for Secretariat, too, unlike stable-mate Riva Ridge the previous year (whose Crown bid ended at a muddy Preakness vs. longshot Bee Bee Bee), or the great Damascus in '67, whose Derby was ruined by an off-track (and a loss to Proud Clarion).
Remember, a lot of big names have only won two legs of the crown, 48 of them, in fact, compared to just 11 who pulled the hat-trick and won all three. Besides Damascus and Riva Ridge, other equine notables like Native Dancer, Nashua, and even Man O'War (who didn't run in the Derby), and dozens of others, only won two legs of the Triple Crown.
But as American Pharoah might discover on Long Island, the Belmont can be a tough hurdle for even the greatest horses to overcome.
Like Spectacular Bid.
Why post 5 doesn't bode well for American Pharoah
Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner American Pharoah (-150) has drawn lane No. 5 in his quest for the final jewel for the Triple Crown.
Recent history has not been kind to horses running out of lane 5 as the last winner was Hansel back in 1991. Overall, post position 5 has produced 13 winners - tied for second most with post 3.
Post position 1 has produced the most Belmont winners with 23. Mubtaahij (+1200) has drawn that post in Saturday's running.
Post Positions of Belmont Winners
Historically, certain post positions favor the winners of the Belmont Stakes. If you bet on the Belmont Stakes, you might want to consider which lane your favorite horse is in!
Post 1 23 Post 7 11
Post 2 11 Post 8 5
Post 3 13 Post 9 3
Post 4 9 Post 10 2
Post 5 13 Post 11 2
Post 6 7
Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner American Pharoah (-150) has drawn lane No. 5 in his quest for the final jewel for the Triple Crown.
Recent history has not been kind to horses running out of lane 5 as the last winner was Hansel back in 1991. Overall, post position 5 has produced 13 winners - tied for second most with post 3.
Post position 1 has produced the most Belmont winners with 23. Mubtaahij (+1200) has drawn that post in Saturday's running.
Post Positions of Belmont Winners
Historically, certain post positions favor the winners of the Belmont Stakes. If you bet on the Belmont Stakes, you might want to consider which lane your favorite horse is in!
Post 1 23 Post 7 11
Post 2 11 Post 8 5
Post 3 13 Post 9 3
Post 4 9 Post 10 2
Post 5 13 Post 11 2
Post 6 7
American Pharoah vs. Big Sandy
By Anthony Stabile
The old adage says that there are a million ways to lose a horse race but just one way to win. Ask any horseman or horsewoman stabled at any racetrack in the world and nearly every one of them would echo that sentiment.
On Saturday, American Pharoah will walk over from barn 1 at beautiful Belmont Park carrying the hopes of his connections and those of thousands of adoring fans onto the racetrack looking for that one way to win the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes and become the twelfth Triple Crown winner.
Like California Chrome last year, the last six times the starter has sprung the latch on the starting gate, American Pharoah has turned away each and every one of his rivals, including the 17 that faced him in the Kentucky Derby and the seven who tried him in the Preakness.
It looks as if seven will try him again in the Test of the Champion. And, as is the case every year, a slew of other obstacles will await him. A majority of the tangible obstacles, like a good post position and clean trip, are things horses face every time they race. Jinxes, curses and racing gods, well they’re a story for another time.
Here in New York, Belmont Park throws one more monkey wrench at Belmont Stakes runners and that’s Belmont Park. What I mean by that is the twelve-furlong racecourse that, depending on your outlook or outcome, has been happily or ominously dubbed “Big Sandy.”
Giant sweeping turns……furlongs of straightaway…..a surprisingly short stretch at just around a quarter of a mile…..Belmont Park is the only main track of its kind in the world. The Belmont is once around the 1 ½ mile oval. It’s worth noting that all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced over the track at least once in their careers prior to “The Test of the Champion.
Located in Elmont, NY, a part of Nassau County on Long Island, it has sat on Hempstead Turnpike for well over a century. But for 12 days over the past 37 years, Hempstead Turnpike has turned into the Boulevard of Broken Dreams for the last 11 who’ve tried to reach the zenith.
Come Saturday evening, the magic number will be 12, as in 12 Triple Crown winners or 12 who have failed in their attempt since Affirmed got it done back in 1978. Here’s another important 12: the 12 furlong markers that sit around the Belmont Park course, starting at the gate.
The Starting Gate – You have so much time to recover if something goes wrong so how important can the start be of a 1 ½ mile race? The answer is plenty, as evident by War Emblem who was slammed at the start in 2002. His rider, coincidentally, was California Chrome’s rider Victor Espinoza, who grudgingly decided this year to ride at Belmont the week prior to the race.
Eleven Furlong Pole – It doesn’t exist anywhere else in the U.S. Just an eighth of a mile into the race one would think it would be nearly impossible for anything earth shattering to happen. In 2008, this is where Kent Desormeaux and Big Brown began to panic and make their escape from the rail draw.
Ten Furlong Pole – 1 ¼ mile races, like the Jockey Club Gold Cup, start here. It’s right on the bend of the clubhouse turn. Speed types, namely Funny Cide in 2003 established their front running position here.
Nine Furlong Pole – Now we’re getting into some normalcy. Arlington Park has one of these…..it’s called the finish line. Back in 1981, Pleasant Colony was shuffling back towards the rear as the field raced midway on the first turn.
Mile Pole – This is the finish line at most tracks as most tracks are one mile ovals. Stewart Elliott famously committed Smarty Jones to the lead, just a half mile into the race, here in 2004.
Seven Furlong Pole – The second of nearly four furlongs of straightaway. If you watch closely, this is where Desormeaux started getting a bit antsy on Real Quiet in 1998, likely thinking there was just a half-mile or so left in the race.
Six Furlong Pole – You’re halfway home. Espinoza finally let War Emblem roll a bit along the inside at this point after having him bottled up for most of the backside run behind a wall of three horses.
Five Furlong Pole – This is where business starts to really pick up. Real Quiet started to make a serious run here. War Emblem stuck his head in front. Empire Maker began to close in on his rival Funny Cide. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer moved as a team in 1989.
Half Mile Pole – You’re on the far turn now. Spectacular Bid tried to sneak away here in 1979, injured hoof and all. Smarty Jones shrugged off Rock Hard Ten and opened up on the rest. In 1999, Charismatic really put the pressure on the filly Silverbulletday at this point.
Three Furlong Pole – A fevered pitch is reached midway on the far turn. It seems that this is the place where everything goes down. Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic all hit the lead for the first time here. Alysheba, who struggled through most of the Belmont in 1987, got into some traffic trouble here, essentially eliminating himself from contention. War Emblem’s day was done. Funny Cide began his fade. Desormeaux asked Big Brown who failed to answer positively.
Quarter Pole – …..and the field turns for home!! Big Brown was eased here. Easy Goer vanquished Sunday Silence. You could tell Pleasant Colony wasn’t getting the money. California Chrome tipped to the outside to make his run at immortality but never made a dent.
Eighth Pole - Five of the last 11 attempts were still alive in or around this point. Spectacular Bid just about gave it up to Coastal. Charismatic was surrounded and passed by one-two finishers Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse. Silver Charm didn’t see a rerallying Touch Gold on the far outside. Yards before the wire, Birdstone ran past Smarty Jones. And Victory Gallop put his head down exactly on the money to deny Real Quiet.
By Anthony Stabile
The old adage says that there are a million ways to lose a horse race but just one way to win. Ask any horseman or horsewoman stabled at any racetrack in the world and nearly every one of them would echo that sentiment.
On Saturday, American Pharoah will walk over from barn 1 at beautiful Belmont Park carrying the hopes of his connections and those of thousands of adoring fans onto the racetrack looking for that one way to win the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes and become the twelfth Triple Crown winner.
Like California Chrome last year, the last six times the starter has sprung the latch on the starting gate, American Pharoah has turned away each and every one of his rivals, including the 17 that faced him in the Kentucky Derby and the seven who tried him in the Preakness.
It looks as if seven will try him again in the Test of the Champion. And, as is the case every year, a slew of other obstacles will await him. A majority of the tangible obstacles, like a good post position and clean trip, are things horses face every time they race. Jinxes, curses and racing gods, well they’re a story for another time.
Here in New York, Belmont Park throws one more monkey wrench at Belmont Stakes runners and that’s Belmont Park. What I mean by that is the twelve-furlong racecourse that, depending on your outlook or outcome, has been happily or ominously dubbed “Big Sandy.”
Giant sweeping turns……furlongs of straightaway…..a surprisingly short stretch at just around a quarter of a mile…..Belmont Park is the only main track of its kind in the world. The Belmont is once around the 1 ½ mile oval. It’s worth noting that all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced over the track at least once in their careers prior to “The Test of the Champion.
Located in Elmont, NY, a part of Nassau County on Long Island, it has sat on Hempstead Turnpike for well over a century. But for 12 days over the past 37 years, Hempstead Turnpike has turned into the Boulevard of Broken Dreams for the last 11 who’ve tried to reach the zenith.
Come Saturday evening, the magic number will be 12, as in 12 Triple Crown winners or 12 who have failed in their attempt since Affirmed got it done back in 1978. Here’s another important 12: the 12 furlong markers that sit around the Belmont Park course, starting at the gate.
The Starting Gate – You have so much time to recover if something goes wrong so how important can the start be of a 1 ½ mile race? The answer is plenty, as evident by War Emblem who was slammed at the start in 2002. His rider, coincidentally, was California Chrome’s rider Victor Espinoza, who grudgingly decided this year to ride at Belmont the week prior to the race.
Eleven Furlong Pole – It doesn’t exist anywhere else in the U.S. Just an eighth of a mile into the race one would think it would be nearly impossible for anything earth shattering to happen. In 2008, this is where Kent Desormeaux and Big Brown began to panic and make their escape from the rail draw.
Ten Furlong Pole – 1 ¼ mile races, like the Jockey Club Gold Cup, start here. It’s right on the bend of the clubhouse turn. Speed types, namely Funny Cide in 2003 established their front running position here.
Nine Furlong Pole – Now we’re getting into some normalcy. Arlington Park has one of these…..it’s called the finish line. Back in 1981, Pleasant Colony was shuffling back towards the rear as the field raced midway on the first turn.
Mile Pole – This is the finish line at most tracks as most tracks are one mile ovals. Stewart Elliott famously committed Smarty Jones to the lead, just a half mile into the race, here in 2004.
Seven Furlong Pole – The second of nearly four furlongs of straightaway. If you watch closely, this is where Desormeaux started getting a bit antsy on Real Quiet in 1998, likely thinking there was just a half-mile or so left in the race.
Six Furlong Pole – You’re halfway home. Espinoza finally let War Emblem roll a bit along the inside at this point after having him bottled up for most of the backside run behind a wall of three horses.
Five Furlong Pole – This is where business starts to really pick up. Real Quiet started to make a serious run here. War Emblem stuck his head in front. Empire Maker began to close in on his rival Funny Cide. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer moved as a team in 1989.
Half Mile Pole – You’re on the far turn now. Spectacular Bid tried to sneak away here in 1979, injured hoof and all. Smarty Jones shrugged off Rock Hard Ten and opened up on the rest. In 1999, Charismatic really put the pressure on the filly Silverbulletday at this point.
Three Furlong Pole – A fevered pitch is reached midway on the far turn. It seems that this is the place where everything goes down. Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic all hit the lead for the first time here. Alysheba, who struggled through most of the Belmont in 1987, got into some traffic trouble here, essentially eliminating himself from contention. War Emblem’s day was done. Funny Cide began his fade. Desormeaux asked Big Brown who failed to answer positively.
Quarter Pole – …..and the field turns for home!! Big Brown was eased here. Easy Goer vanquished Sunday Silence. You could tell Pleasant Colony wasn’t getting the money. California Chrome tipped to the outside to make his run at immortality but never made a dent.
Eighth Pole - Five of the last 11 attempts were still alive in or around this point. Spectacular Bid just about gave it up to Coastal. Charismatic was surrounded and passed by one-two finishers Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse. Silver Charm didn’t see a rerallying Touch Gold on the far outside. Yards before the wire, Birdstone ran past Smarty Jones. And Victory Gallop put his head down exactly on the money to deny Real Quiet.
Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
The final leg of the "Triple Crown" takes place this Saturday as American Pharoah will look to capture the 2015 Belmont Stakes and become the 12th horse to capture the Triple Crown. Anthony Stabile breaks down all eight runners for the Belmont.
2015 Belmont Stakes Breakdown
PP Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Owner (Belmont Record)
1 Mubtaahij 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mike de Kock (Debut)
Notes: My Kentucky Derby selection looked like he was running on a treadmill throughout. He broke in midpack, stayed in midpack before making a very brief run on the turn and finished midpack. If it wasn’t the Kentucky Derby, you’d have thought they were giving him a race. I doubt that was the intention but perhaps it was the outcome. All of the knocks on him going into the Derby…no time to acclimate, no U.S. prep, a foreign rider…they’ve all vanished. He’s been at Belmont for several weeks, ran in Louisville and gets one of the leading riders on the N.Y. circuit. He’s been stabled in the barn of Christophe Clement, trainer of last years’ winner Tonalist, and Clement recommended Ortiz to de Kock when he inquired as to what local rider he should get. The Belmont almost always unfolds like a European-style race – go slow early, try to accelerate late – and that’s exactly what this guy did in the UAE Derby. He should be right behind the two speed horses in here then tip on the turn. And then he answers the question as to whether or not he’s good enough. I think he is. Though there are other’s in here I’ll be using in multi-race exotics and in gimmicks.
2 Tale of Verve 15/1 Gary Stevens (3-10) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He’s certainly thrived since Stewart took the blinkers off back in March and the distances of his races have gotten longer. Went from a maiden tally straight to the Preakness and finished second, seven lengths behind American Pharoah. Unfortunately, I feel like that performance is dressed up. Third place finisher Divining Rod moved too soon into the winner and staggered through the lane, allowing this guy to pick up the pieces. I think the deluge moved him up as well as he is bred to love a wet track. One of three, along with Frammento and Keen Ice, in here still eligible for an entry level allowance race. He gets a rider change to Stevens who has a fantastic record in the event and Stewart has a knack for getting longshots into the exotics in these American classics, see Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in the 2013 and 2014 renewals of the Derby, but this race doesn’t really set up for this guy and his late run.
3 Madefromlucky 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (2-18)
Notes: He’ll try to emulate 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist by using a win in the Peter Pan, the local prep for this, as a springboard to an upset in here. He finished second to American Pharoah in the Rebel then fourth behind him in the Arkansas Derby by open lengths before his most recent tally. I’m not sure he beat anything last out and question what was behind and around him at Oaklawn. For all of Pletcher’s failures in the Derby and Preakness (he’s a combined 1 for 50) his horses always seem to fire in this race. Thankfully for him his success this year doesn’t rest solely on this guy because I’m not a fan.
4 Frammento 30/1 Mike Smith (2-16) Nick Zito (2-24)
Notes: It’s déjà vu all over again!!! There is a Triple Crown on the line and Brooklyn’s own Nick Zito has a 30-1 shot in the race. In 2004, Smarty Jones had to hold the lead for “just one more minute,” according to legendary track announcer Tom Durkin but he couldn’t, as Birdstone ran him down in the final furlong. Then in 2008, when it appeared as if Big Brown had to fall down to lose, he almost did just that as he was eased in the stretch while Da’ Tara impossibly took them gate to wire. This year, he teams up with fellow two time winner and Hall of Famer Mike Smith with a colt that would seem to need the ultimate pace collapse…….or would he? He did sit just three lengths off the pace when he broke his maiden at second asking so maybe Smith will keep him a bit closer in here. Of all the longshots, he’s the only one that I believe merits any consideration. Things would have to break perfectly for him to win but I would not be surprised if he grabbed a share.
5 American Pharoah 3/5 Victor Espinoza (0-4) Bob Baffert (1-9)
Notes: At around 7:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday, June 6th 2015, his name will be on a list that includes Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed or Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome. I think that latter trio will have some company. He’s been perfect in six starts since losing his debut, including Derby and Preakness scores. He’s facing just seven rivals in here, has drawn well and has enough speed to make the race go through him. He’s trained by a guy that’s in the Hall of Fame, has won 11 Triple Crown races already and just about every other major contest in this country. And he’s ridden by a guy that….um….er…. Look, Espinoza has won the Derby three times and the Preakness twice but simply hasn’t performed well when the TRUE pressure mounted. He’s going to be involved in the proverbially chess match of his life through the opening panels of this race with Hall of Famer John Velazquez, one of the best in the business in the last quarter of a century. And Victor Espinoza has about as much of a shot at outsmarting Johnny V then I would have had at beating the late Bobby Fischer. This will be his third attempt at a Triple Crown and Baffert’s fourth. As impressive as the sounds, the flip side is that they’ve come away empty-handed every time.
6 Frosted 5/1 Joel Rosario (1-4) Kiaran McLaughlin (1-4)
Notes: Your fourth place Derby finisher was one of the only horses in the field to make up serious ground and that was after a wide run throughout. He has an all-important race over the track, trains here and his trainer, who won this in 2006 with Jazil, is dying to run this horse. McLaughlin did a tremendous job with this horse since his unexpected collapse in the Fountain of Youth and has him poised for a big run. Like last year’s winner, he’s ridden by Rosario and by the brilliant sire Tapit. McLaughlin has said the plan is to have him closer, so when the real running begins I expect this guy to be making a serious rally. A certain win contender who will be on every single one of my tickets.
7 Keen Ice 20/1 Kent Desormeaux (1-8) Dale Romans (0-5)
Notes: Another of the longshots that would need a complete pace collapse to have any chance to win this race. Since breaking his maiden at Churchill last September, he’s been off the board four times and third in the Remsen last year and Risen Star this year. He’s by Curlin, who was a solid second to the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 renewal, but will need to improve off of his seventh place Derby finish to have any shot here. I don’t like the way the race sets up for him and think he’s in way too tough.
8 Materiality 6/1 John Velazquez (2-18) Todd Pletcher (2-18)
Notes: To me, he’s the real wild card in this race, a race that could very well hinge on what his connections decide to do at the break. If they want the lead, I’m sure Espinoza and American Pharoah will be more than happy to give it to him. But if Johnny decides to let Espinoza dictate the pace, he makes the champ do all of the heavy lifting in a 12 furlong race. He’s also a wild card because we honestly don’t know how good he is. Pletcher rules the roost at Gulfstream, where this horse won the first three starts of his career, including the Florida Derby. Then, in the Derby, he lost all chance at the break when he didn’t come away well. I did not like how he reacted when he was in and amongst horses but that shouldn’t be a problem here since he’s drawn outside the rest and there are only seven others in here. Again, Pletcher does well in the Belmont and he’s aggressive in placing his runners. Dunkirk showed uncharacteristic speed in 2009 when he held on for place, Stay Thirsty was forwardly placed throughout when second in 2011 and Commissioner missed by just a head when he tried taking the field gate-to-wire just last year. Plus, he’s by 205 Belmont winner Afleet Alex so he shouldn’t mind the added distance.
By Anthony Stabile
The final leg of the "Triple Crown" takes place this Saturday as American Pharoah will look to capture the 2015 Belmont Stakes and become the 12th horse to capture the Triple Crown. Anthony Stabile breaks down all eight runners for the Belmont.
2015 Belmont Stakes Breakdown
PP Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Owner (Belmont Record)
1 Mubtaahij 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mike de Kock (Debut)
Notes: My Kentucky Derby selection looked like he was running on a treadmill throughout. He broke in midpack, stayed in midpack before making a very brief run on the turn and finished midpack. If it wasn’t the Kentucky Derby, you’d have thought they were giving him a race. I doubt that was the intention but perhaps it was the outcome. All of the knocks on him going into the Derby…no time to acclimate, no U.S. prep, a foreign rider…they’ve all vanished. He’s been at Belmont for several weeks, ran in Louisville and gets one of the leading riders on the N.Y. circuit. He’s been stabled in the barn of Christophe Clement, trainer of last years’ winner Tonalist, and Clement recommended Ortiz to de Kock when he inquired as to what local rider he should get. The Belmont almost always unfolds like a European-style race – go slow early, try to accelerate late – and that’s exactly what this guy did in the UAE Derby. He should be right behind the two speed horses in here then tip on the turn. And then he answers the question as to whether or not he’s good enough. I think he is. Though there are other’s in here I’ll be using in multi-race exotics and in gimmicks.
2 Tale of Verve 15/1 Gary Stevens (3-10) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He’s certainly thrived since Stewart took the blinkers off back in March and the distances of his races have gotten longer. Went from a maiden tally straight to the Preakness and finished second, seven lengths behind American Pharoah. Unfortunately, I feel like that performance is dressed up. Third place finisher Divining Rod moved too soon into the winner and staggered through the lane, allowing this guy to pick up the pieces. I think the deluge moved him up as well as he is bred to love a wet track. One of three, along with Frammento and Keen Ice, in here still eligible for an entry level allowance race. He gets a rider change to Stevens who has a fantastic record in the event and Stewart has a knack for getting longshots into the exotics in these American classics, see Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in the 2013 and 2014 renewals of the Derby, but this race doesn’t really set up for this guy and his late run.
3 Madefromlucky 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (2-18)
Notes: He’ll try to emulate 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist by using a win in the Peter Pan, the local prep for this, as a springboard to an upset in here. He finished second to American Pharoah in the Rebel then fourth behind him in the Arkansas Derby by open lengths before his most recent tally. I’m not sure he beat anything last out and question what was behind and around him at Oaklawn. For all of Pletcher’s failures in the Derby and Preakness (he’s a combined 1 for 50) his horses always seem to fire in this race. Thankfully for him his success this year doesn’t rest solely on this guy because I’m not a fan.
4 Frammento 30/1 Mike Smith (2-16) Nick Zito (2-24)
Notes: It’s déjà vu all over again!!! There is a Triple Crown on the line and Brooklyn’s own Nick Zito has a 30-1 shot in the race. In 2004, Smarty Jones had to hold the lead for “just one more minute,” according to legendary track announcer Tom Durkin but he couldn’t, as Birdstone ran him down in the final furlong. Then in 2008, when it appeared as if Big Brown had to fall down to lose, he almost did just that as he was eased in the stretch while Da’ Tara impossibly took them gate to wire. This year, he teams up with fellow two time winner and Hall of Famer Mike Smith with a colt that would seem to need the ultimate pace collapse…….or would he? He did sit just three lengths off the pace when he broke his maiden at second asking so maybe Smith will keep him a bit closer in here. Of all the longshots, he’s the only one that I believe merits any consideration. Things would have to break perfectly for him to win but I would not be surprised if he grabbed a share.
5 American Pharoah 3/5 Victor Espinoza (0-4) Bob Baffert (1-9)
Notes: At around 7:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday, June 6th 2015, his name will be on a list that includes Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed or Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome. I think that latter trio will have some company. He’s been perfect in six starts since losing his debut, including Derby and Preakness scores. He’s facing just seven rivals in here, has drawn well and has enough speed to make the race go through him. He’s trained by a guy that’s in the Hall of Fame, has won 11 Triple Crown races already and just about every other major contest in this country. And he’s ridden by a guy that….um….er…. Look, Espinoza has won the Derby three times and the Preakness twice but simply hasn’t performed well when the TRUE pressure mounted. He’s going to be involved in the proverbially chess match of his life through the opening panels of this race with Hall of Famer John Velazquez, one of the best in the business in the last quarter of a century. And Victor Espinoza has about as much of a shot at outsmarting Johnny V then I would have had at beating the late Bobby Fischer. This will be his third attempt at a Triple Crown and Baffert’s fourth. As impressive as the sounds, the flip side is that they’ve come away empty-handed every time.
6 Frosted 5/1 Joel Rosario (1-4) Kiaran McLaughlin (1-4)
Notes: Your fourth place Derby finisher was one of the only horses in the field to make up serious ground and that was after a wide run throughout. He has an all-important race over the track, trains here and his trainer, who won this in 2006 with Jazil, is dying to run this horse. McLaughlin did a tremendous job with this horse since his unexpected collapse in the Fountain of Youth and has him poised for a big run. Like last year’s winner, he’s ridden by Rosario and by the brilliant sire Tapit. McLaughlin has said the plan is to have him closer, so when the real running begins I expect this guy to be making a serious rally. A certain win contender who will be on every single one of my tickets.
7 Keen Ice 20/1 Kent Desormeaux (1-8) Dale Romans (0-5)
Notes: Another of the longshots that would need a complete pace collapse to have any chance to win this race. Since breaking his maiden at Churchill last September, he’s been off the board four times and third in the Remsen last year and Risen Star this year. He’s by Curlin, who was a solid second to the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 renewal, but will need to improve off of his seventh place Derby finish to have any shot here. I don’t like the way the race sets up for him and think he’s in way too tough.
8 Materiality 6/1 John Velazquez (2-18) Todd Pletcher (2-18)
Notes: To me, he’s the real wild card in this race, a race that could very well hinge on what his connections decide to do at the break. If they want the lead, I’m sure Espinoza and American Pharoah will be more than happy to give it to him. But if Johnny decides to let Espinoza dictate the pace, he makes the champ do all of the heavy lifting in a 12 furlong race. He’s also a wild card because we honestly don’t know how good he is. Pletcher rules the roost at Gulfstream, where this horse won the first three starts of his career, including the Florida Derby. Then, in the Derby, he lost all chance at the break when he didn’t come away well. I did not like how he reacted when he was in and amongst horses but that shouldn’t be a problem here since he’s drawn outside the rest and there are only seven others in here. Again, Pletcher does well in the Belmont and he’s aggressive in placing his runners. Dunkirk showed uncharacteristic speed in 2009 when he held on for place, Stay Thirsty was forwardly placed throughout when second in 2011 and Commissioner missed by just a head when he tried taking the field gate-to-wire just last year. Plus, he’s by 205 Belmont winner Afleet Alex so he shouldn’t mind the added distance.
What American Pharoah's Triple Crown run means to race books, horse racing industry
By MONIQUE VÁG
A lot has gone down in the 37 years since horse racing’s last Triple Crown winner. In that time, there have been 13 horses enter the gates at the Belmont Stakes with a Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes title, only to come up short of what was last accomplished by Affirmed in 1978.
Horse racing – and more specifically horse betting – isn’t what it used to be. Racing fans are a dying breed and less and less are finding their way to the window to wager on races, be it on daily offerings from around the country or even the Triple Crown events, such as this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
But, with the excitement surrounding potential Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, race books are bracing for a busy weekend. According to operators in Las Vegas, having a Triple Crown hopeful in the Belmont field can increase the betting handle on the “Test of Champions” between 30 and 50 percent.
Last year, California Chrome made a push for the Triple Crown in the Belmont (falling short with a fourth-place finish), sparking approximately $7 million in betting action in Nevada, according to Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology.
Simbal believes the 2015 Belmont will fall short of that handle, and draw between $6 and 6.5 million worth of wagers in the Silver State. CG Technology estimates its numerous race books will account for 10 to 15 percent of that statewide handle.
“We get less than half that number when there’s no Triple Crown attempt,” .
Andy Serling, a TV analyst and handicapper for the New York Racing Association and FOX Sports1, is one of many industry experts that are extremely excited about the Belmont Stakes. But Sterling isn’t so sure the lure of a Triple Crown title will turn all racing fans into racing bettors.
“Events like the Belmont have a built-in crowd. People come to be part of the event. While it’s great, do they really bet?” asks Serling.
There will be plenty of first-time fans taking in this weekend’s event, be it at the track or just watching from home. But understanding horse racing and all its nuances, and how that information carries over into betting on races, is a skill not learned overnight.
"Horse racing is the most exciting sport for me. But it’s a problem of perception. It’s tough to teach fans,” says Serling.
And of those new faces taking in American Pharoah’s shot at history Saturday - even the ones placing a wager - few will continue to watch or wager on horse racing now that the Triple Crown events are over. Picking up a form and studying 13 races with close to 130 past performance lines is a process and it's clear why some people would prefer just to bet on a baseball game instead.
It’s that homework and know-how that is fading, leaving racing handles and winnings to plummet in recent decades. As Covers’ Colin Kelly investigated before the Kentucky Derby, race betting brought in a handle of $736.6 million in Nevada back in 1998 but dropped to just $568.5 million – a decrease of 23 percent – the following year. It jumped to $637.2 million in 2006 but has been on a rapid decline since, with a handle of $339.6 million in 2013 and $344.2 million last year.
That fade in betting handle has gone hand-in-hand with a lack of interest in horse racing that has many tracks around the country closing up shop. David Grening, the New York correspondent for Daily Racing Form says a Triple Crown champion won’t serve as a cure-all for a dying sport that has “too many ills for one horse or one event to cure by itself.”
“Not one more person will attend the races next Wednesday if American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown than if he loses it,” Grening . “However, it could generate some excitement for the summer meets ahead, such as Saratoga and Del Mar and obviously wherever American Pharoah would show up next, should he race again.”
Darin Zoccalli, director of racing operations at Meadowlands Racetrack, says a Triple Crown attempt is just as good as a Triple Crown winner for the sport, and believes smaller meets – like those held at resort destinations Keenland and Saratoga – are the first step in breathing life back into horse racing.
It is difficult for fans to build connections to their favorite horses when they’re racing on a weekly rotation. Having less racing dates allows for individuals to mark down the upcoming races and plan accordingly in the calendar, which many have done for this weekend’s event, traveling to Belmont Park to be part of sports history.
So what are the odds of that happening? Well, American Pharoah currently sits as a -150 favorite to win the Belmont. But if you ask experts close to the sport, that hefty price tag could be the deal of the century on a one-of-a-kind horse.
“Simply stated, he’s a superstar horse,” Stephen Panus, vice president of America’s Best Racing. “In fact, long-time and renowned clocker Gary Young has referred to him as our sport’s ‘Michael Jordan’. Likewise, others who have seen their fair share of race horses over the years have shared the same sentiment.”
Panus says American Pharoah has been extremely popular, even without that classic “Americana story that enraptured America”. Those opinions are similar from owner and trainer Michael Machowksy as well as Grening, who point out the money behind American Pharoah and owner Ahmed Zayat.
“(Zayat) spent a ton trying to get to this point,” says Machowsky. “Art (Sherman, trainer of California Chrome) has mostly had claiming horses and this is what is expected of (American Pharoah trainer) Bob (Baffert) every year, buying high-end horses and being sent the best horses”.
Grening compared 2015’s Triple Crown run to the “rags-to-riches” stories of some past Triple Crown hopefuls, like Funny Cide in 2002, Smarty Jones in 2004 and California Chrome in 2014. In those three bids, the owners all came from humble beginnings, had "regular-people" connections and were easy to root for. American Pharoah does not have such a story.
“I do believe the horse is popular because of how dominant he's been in some of his races and for being one of those types who has speed and can carry it a long way,” says Grening.
That popularity has bled over to the race books where more than 70 percent of the action for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes is on American Pharoah. Whether or not those bettors come back for more action from the track next week remains to be seen.
By MONIQUE VÁG
A lot has gone down in the 37 years since horse racing’s last Triple Crown winner. In that time, there have been 13 horses enter the gates at the Belmont Stakes with a Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes title, only to come up short of what was last accomplished by Affirmed in 1978.
Horse racing – and more specifically horse betting – isn’t what it used to be. Racing fans are a dying breed and less and less are finding their way to the window to wager on races, be it on daily offerings from around the country or even the Triple Crown events, such as this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
But, with the excitement surrounding potential Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, race books are bracing for a busy weekend. According to operators in Las Vegas, having a Triple Crown hopeful in the Belmont field can increase the betting handle on the “Test of Champions” between 30 and 50 percent.
Last year, California Chrome made a push for the Triple Crown in the Belmont (falling short with a fourth-place finish), sparking approximately $7 million in betting action in Nevada, according to Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology.
Simbal believes the 2015 Belmont will fall short of that handle, and draw between $6 and 6.5 million worth of wagers in the Silver State. CG Technology estimates its numerous race books will account for 10 to 15 percent of that statewide handle.
“We get less than half that number when there’s no Triple Crown attempt,” .
Andy Serling, a TV analyst and handicapper for the New York Racing Association and FOX Sports1, is one of many industry experts that are extremely excited about the Belmont Stakes. But Sterling isn’t so sure the lure of a Triple Crown title will turn all racing fans into racing bettors.
“Events like the Belmont have a built-in crowd. People come to be part of the event. While it’s great, do they really bet?” asks Serling.
There will be plenty of first-time fans taking in this weekend’s event, be it at the track or just watching from home. But understanding horse racing and all its nuances, and how that information carries over into betting on races, is a skill not learned overnight.
"Horse racing is the most exciting sport for me. But it’s a problem of perception. It’s tough to teach fans,” says Serling.
And of those new faces taking in American Pharoah’s shot at history Saturday - even the ones placing a wager - few will continue to watch or wager on horse racing now that the Triple Crown events are over. Picking up a form and studying 13 races with close to 130 past performance lines is a process and it's clear why some people would prefer just to bet on a baseball game instead.
It’s that homework and know-how that is fading, leaving racing handles and winnings to plummet in recent decades. As Covers’ Colin Kelly investigated before the Kentucky Derby, race betting brought in a handle of $736.6 million in Nevada back in 1998 but dropped to just $568.5 million – a decrease of 23 percent – the following year. It jumped to $637.2 million in 2006 but has been on a rapid decline since, with a handle of $339.6 million in 2013 and $344.2 million last year.
That fade in betting handle has gone hand-in-hand with a lack of interest in horse racing that has many tracks around the country closing up shop. David Grening, the New York correspondent for Daily Racing Form says a Triple Crown champion won’t serve as a cure-all for a dying sport that has “too many ills for one horse or one event to cure by itself.”
“Not one more person will attend the races next Wednesday if American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown than if he loses it,” Grening . “However, it could generate some excitement for the summer meets ahead, such as Saratoga and Del Mar and obviously wherever American Pharoah would show up next, should he race again.”
Darin Zoccalli, director of racing operations at Meadowlands Racetrack, says a Triple Crown attempt is just as good as a Triple Crown winner for the sport, and believes smaller meets – like those held at resort destinations Keenland and Saratoga – are the first step in breathing life back into horse racing.
It is difficult for fans to build connections to their favorite horses when they’re racing on a weekly rotation. Having less racing dates allows for individuals to mark down the upcoming races and plan accordingly in the calendar, which many have done for this weekend’s event, traveling to Belmont Park to be part of sports history.
So what are the odds of that happening? Well, American Pharoah currently sits as a -150 favorite to win the Belmont. But if you ask experts close to the sport, that hefty price tag could be the deal of the century on a one-of-a-kind horse.
“Simply stated, he’s a superstar horse,” Stephen Panus, vice president of America’s Best Racing. “In fact, long-time and renowned clocker Gary Young has referred to him as our sport’s ‘Michael Jordan’. Likewise, others who have seen their fair share of race horses over the years have shared the same sentiment.”
Panus says American Pharoah has been extremely popular, even without that classic “Americana story that enraptured America”. Those opinions are similar from owner and trainer Michael Machowksy as well as Grening, who point out the money behind American Pharoah and owner Ahmed Zayat.
“(Zayat) spent a ton trying to get to this point,” says Machowsky. “Art (Sherman, trainer of California Chrome) has mostly had claiming horses and this is what is expected of (American Pharoah trainer) Bob (Baffert) every year, buying high-end horses and being sent the best horses”.
Grening compared 2015’s Triple Crown run to the “rags-to-riches” stories of some past Triple Crown hopefuls, like Funny Cide in 2002, Smarty Jones in 2004 and California Chrome in 2014. In those three bids, the owners all came from humble beginnings, had "regular-people" connections and were easy to root for. American Pharoah does not have such a story.
“I do believe the horse is popular because of how dominant he's been in some of his races and for being one of those types who has speed and can carry it a long way,” says Grening.
That popularity has bled over to the race books where more than 70 percent of the action for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes is on American Pharoah. Whether or not those bettors come back for more action from the track next week remains to be seen.
Belmont Stakes betting horse-by-horse preview and picks
By BILL CLOUTIER
Here we go again. Thirteen times since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 has a horse entered the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history and each time they’ve failed.
What makes this year different?
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes:
1. Mubtaahij (Jockey, Irad Ortiz, odds 10-1): Took a lot of money at the windows in the Kentucky Derby and finished a hard-closing eighth. Should be able to get the Belmont’s grueling distance but don't think he's a major threat. Import, who won the UAE Derby, skipped the Preakness to freshen up.
2. Tale of Verve (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Has just one win in seven career starts but he took a game second in the Preakness making his entry in this race seem legitimate. Also shown ability to come from off the pace and has run six straight races over a mile long but it took him six tries to break his maiden and this is too steep a challenge.
3. Madefromlucky (Javier Castellano, 12-1): First of two Todd Pletcher-trained horses in the field and if one trainer would like to prevent Bob Baffert from winning the Triple Crown, it's Pletcher. This one won the Peter Pan over this surface but was walloped by American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn once in the slop and once on a fast surface.
4. Frammento (Mike Smith, 30-1): Didn't like him in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 11th and there's no reason to jump on him here. He's won just once in eight career starts and his best Beyer figure is 87 – overmatched.
5. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 3-5): The favorite has lost the last nine Belmont stakes and all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont before running in the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes. Pharoah has never run at Belmont. But, he was a 2-year-old champion, has won six-straight races all with Beyer figures over 100, and importantly he’s held his weight steady since his Derby start. When Baffert entered stablemate Dortmund in the Preakness he was stating the obvious: there isn’t a 3-year-old in training that can beat him anywhere.
6. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): Is a half-brother to Tonalist who spoiled California Chrome’s Triple Crown hopes last year. Was a hard-charging fourth after a dismal start in the Kentucky Derby and the fact that he's already raced at Belmont (finishing second as a 2-year-old) makes him the biggest threat. His best race was a win in the Wood at Aqueduct but he can't spot the chalk too much distance or he'll never catch him,
7. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 20-1): Also skipped the Preakness after encountering major traffic problems in the Kentucky Derby where he finished seventh at 45-1. He’s sure to take some money here but the lack of much speed up front should severely hinder his chances.
8 Materiality (Jorge Velasquez, 6-1): The second Pletcher charge and another with a good chance to play the role of spoiler. He was left at the gate in the Derby but then staged an unlikely rally to finish sixth posting the fastest time of all the runners in the final half mile. The Derby loss was his first in four starts and he usually breaks well. Really thought he'd be a menace in the Preakness but he wasn't ready and he spent two straight weeks training at Belmont for this race.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Materiality. 3. Frosted. 4. Mubtaahij.
By BILL CLOUTIER
Here we go again. Thirteen times since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 has a horse entered the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history and each time they’ve failed.
What makes this year different?
Here’s a look at the field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes:
1. Mubtaahij (Jockey, Irad Ortiz, odds 10-1): Took a lot of money at the windows in the Kentucky Derby and finished a hard-closing eighth. Should be able to get the Belmont’s grueling distance but don't think he's a major threat. Import, who won the UAE Derby, skipped the Preakness to freshen up.
2. Tale of Verve (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Has just one win in seven career starts but he took a game second in the Preakness making his entry in this race seem legitimate. Also shown ability to come from off the pace and has run six straight races over a mile long but it took him six tries to break his maiden and this is too steep a challenge.
3. Madefromlucky (Javier Castellano, 12-1): First of two Todd Pletcher-trained horses in the field and if one trainer would like to prevent Bob Baffert from winning the Triple Crown, it's Pletcher. This one won the Peter Pan over this surface but was walloped by American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn once in the slop and once on a fast surface.
4. Frammento (Mike Smith, 30-1): Didn't like him in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 11th and there's no reason to jump on him here. He's won just once in eight career starts and his best Beyer figure is 87 – overmatched.
5. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 3-5): The favorite has lost the last nine Belmont stakes and all 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont before running in the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes. Pharoah has never run at Belmont. But, he was a 2-year-old champion, has won six-straight races all with Beyer figures over 100, and importantly he’s held his weight steady since his Derby start. When Baffert entered stablemate Dortmund in the Preakness he was stating the obvious: there isn’t a 3-year-old in training that can beat him anywhere.
6. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 5-1): Is a half-brother to Tonalist who spoiled California Chrome’s Triple Crown hopes last year. Was a hard-charging fourth after a dismal start in the Kentucky Derby and the fact that he's already raced at Belmont (finishing second as a 2-year-old) makes him the biggest threat. His best race was a win in the Wood at Aqueduct but he can't spot the chalk too much distance or he'll never catch him,
7. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 20-1): Also skipped the Preakness after encountering major traffic problems in the Kentucky Derby where he finished seventh at 45-1. He’s sure to take some money here but the lack of much speed up front should severely hinder his chances.
8 Materiality (Jorge Velasquez, 6-1): The second Pletcher charge and another with a good chance to play the role of spoiler. He was left at the gate in the Derby but then staged an unlikely rally to finish sixth posting the fastest time of all the runners in the final half mile. The Derby loss was his first in four starts and he usually breaks well. Really thought he'd be a menace in the Preakness but he wasn't ready and he spent two straight weeks training at Belmont for this race.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Materiality. 3. Frosted. 4. Mubtaahij.
RIVER CITY SHARPS
147th BELMONT STAKES
I really hope that American Pharoah gets a great trip and brings us the long awaited Triple Crown as I think he is a very special horse. We obviously have 8 horses and a 3/5 ML favorite, so the challenge is constructing something where you can make some money. With that in mind, I’m going to roll a Trifecta and do think that Keen Ice has a big chance and will be running late. Let’s play a $1 Trifecta like this…
Picks: 5 7 with 1 5 6 7 8 with ALL
If we somehow get Keen Ice to win this race and can nail the Place, then this will be a very salty ticket. Worth the $48 investment…enjoy the race!
147th BELMONT STAKES
I really hope that American Pharoah gets a great trip and brings us the long awaited Triple Crown as I think he is a very special horse. We obviously have 8 horses and a 3/5 ML favorite, so the challenge is constructing something where you can make some money. With that in mind, I’m going to roll a Trifecta and do think that Keen Ice has a big chance and will be running late. Let’s play a $1 Trifecta like this…
Picks: 5 7 with 1 5 6 7 8 with ALL
If we somehow get Keen Ice to win this race and can nail the Place, then this will be a very salty ticket. Worth the $48 investment…enjoy the race!
Belmont Park
Friday June 5
By Michael Dempsey
Weather: Cloudy skies early followed by partial clearing, high of 71. Slight chance of a rain shower. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
BEL Race 1 Alw $90,000N1X (12:50 ET)
7 Garden Princess 5-1
2 Two Taps 5-2
5 Been Here Before 6-1
6 Lady Serena 2-1
Analysis: Garden Princess prompted the early pace while in between foes and weakened to finish fourth last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at Churchill Downs in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden two back going a one turn mile at Gulfstream Park. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of that race to win next out. She cuts back to one turn here and looking for her to bounce back with a better effort here for the Mott barn. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers.
Two Taps invades from the west coast where last out she battled for the early lead and drew clear late to break her maiden in her second career start. She has three slow drills since landing in New York but the Shirreffs barn does not usually work them fast. She has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to a mile, by Tapit out of an Indian Charlie mare. The barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 2,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
BEL Race 2 Alw $90,000N1X (1:20 ET)
6 Indian Brut 5-1
3 Speightster 5-2
4 Energetico 8-1
2 Lewys vaporizer 3-1
Analysis: Indian Brut ships back from Florida here last out the colt set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out at Gulfstream Park against Alw-1 optional claimers. The winner Demander came back to beat Alw-2 foes in his next start while the runner up Dance Champion came back to beat Alw-1 company at Keeneland on April 22. Now our top pick comes back off a short freshening and there are several others in here that look quicker early. He does appear as if he still has some upside and should be a fair price.
Speightster was a smart maiden winner in his debut for the Mott barn that usually does not have them fully cranked first time out. The colt came with a five wide bid and rolled on to a seven length win. The colt has worked sharply since his debut and does not need to move forward much off his debut to win at this level.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 3,6 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,10
BEL Race 3 The Jersey Girl (1:52 ET)
1 Noble and a Beauty 8-1
5 Cavorting 5-2
7 Enchanting Lady 8-5
4 Enchantress 4-1
Analysis: Noble and a Beauty faded to finish sixth last out in the gazelle (G2) in her first start going long and returns to sprinting. She won the Cicada on the inner track two back at six furlongs by eight lengths and was beaten in the Ruthless three back by just a neck. She has worked sharply since her last outing for the Violette barn and figures to bounce back with a better effort here on the cut back in distance.
Cavorting was not a threat last out in the Davona Dale (G2) going a mile and cuts back to six furlongs here for her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She won both of her sprints last year, breaking her maiden in her debut and then winning the Adirondack (G2) at the Spa in her first start against winners. The McLaughlin barn is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back of a 61-180 day layoff.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
BEL Race 4 The Tremont (2:24 ET)
5 Banree 7-2
7 Uncle Vinny 5-2
4 Cat Tree 4-1
1 Cocked and Loaded 8-1
Analysis: Banree was a good looking maiden winner at Keeneland in her debut facing the boys and takes them on again here. She was sent off as the betting favorite and came with a good five wide run and drew clear late with a little something left in the tank. Ward's other runner in here Moment Is Right will scratch. Ward has good numbers with juvies and running fillies against the boys.
Uncle Vinny was hammered at the betting windows when he made his debut in a five horse field here on May 21 and despite getting knocked around early was a sharp winner by 4 1/2 lengths. The $175,000 Keeneland purchase is by Grade 1 winner Uncle Mo out of the stakes winner Arealhotlover ($146,567). With a better break this guy should be right in the mix early.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,7,10
BEL Race 5 Md Sp Wt (2:56 ET)
12 Apostrophe 12-1
6 Indian Trail 7-2
10 Bow Tie Boss 3-1
1 Fortuitous Path 12-1
Analysis: Apostrophe is a $150,000 Ocala purchase making his debut for the Violette barn that has been on fire with firsters and with maidens in recent months. Over his last 27 first timers he has hit at a 41% clip (with a +ROI). This guy is by Tiznow (8% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Forestry mare that has dropped three winners, top earner Stoic Angel ($58,516). A couple of quick works o the morning tab and he debuts with lasix.
Indian Trail debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 26% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The colt is by Indian Charlie (16% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Arch mare that has dropped a trio of winners including stakes winner Uncle Mo ($1.5 million). The colt spent the winter at Palm Beach Downs and has three solid looking works since getting back to New York.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 6,12 / 1,6,10,12
TRI: 6,12 / 1,6,10,12 / 1,6,9,10,12
BEL Race 6 OClm $62,500N2X (3:28 ET)
2 My Miss Sophia 7-2
4 Chocolatier 3-1
5 Regardez 4-1
1 Fashion Fund 8-1
Analysis: My Miss Sophia makes her first start on turf in her career here for the Mott barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf. The filly won the Gazelle (G2) at the Big A last year in her first start against winners and then ran second to Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She weakened to finish fifth last out in the La Troinne (G1) which was a real tough spot to come back off the bench. She has a work over the turf and Mott must have lied what he saw. She has a couple of sibs that are grass winners and is a half to Florida Derby (G1) winner materiality ($656,028).
Chocolatier is one of two in here long with our third choice that is making their second start off the bench and second since landing in the U.S. with Brown. The filly came off a six month layoff with a sharp win against Alw-1 foes going nine furlongs at Keeneland. The third place finisher Queen's Parade came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing here on May 8. She figures to move forward and faced mostly tougher overseas including running fourth in a Group 3 and sixth in a Group 1.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5
BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:00 ET)
1 Lookaroundcorners 3-1
9 Fire Away 20-1
10 Arghad 12-1
11 Seeking Alpha 7-2
Analysis: Lookaroundcorners crossed the wire in front in his debut at Keeneland by a neck, but was DQ'd as he bulled his way through a group and ended up interfering with several horses and ended up getting placed 10th. One runner came out of the race to graduate next out while three others ran second in their next starts. The Brown barn is 33% winners with second out maidens. Gets another look here although we will have to settle for shorter than his 11-1 last out.
Fire Away makes his second start off a seven month layoff here for the Shug barn. Last out the was outrun early while saving ground and was not a threat in the stretch in a eighth place finish, beaten 4 1?2 lengths for the top spot. he gets a jock upgrade from the bug to Johnny V. and this guy has a nice pedigree. He is by Distorted Humor out of stalks placed A.P. Indy mare that has dropped five winners including a pair of turf winners, top earner stakes winner Mr Speaker ($1 million). I have a feeling we have not seen the best out of this colt and he should be a generous price here.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,9,10,11
TRI: 1,9 / 1,9,10,11 / 1,5,9,10,11
BEL Race 8 The True North G2 (4:32 ET)
5 Dads Caps 4-1
8 Rock Fall 5-2
2 Stallwalkin' Dude 5-1
6 Eastwood 10-1
Analysis: Dads Caps makes his first start since winning the Carter 'Cap (G1) last out, producing his fourth straight triple digit Beyer. The five-year-old owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip sitting off the pace. He has not won in four starts over the Belmont Park main track but his last trip here was in the Vosburgh (G1) last fall and he was beaten just a neck and he earned a career top speed fig in that outing.
Rock Fall rolled over $100,000 optional claimers last out by nine lengths earning a 109 Beyer. He only had to beat three foes but they were fast. The third place finisher Delaunay is a multiple graded stakes winner who has ran a Beyer of 109 or higher four times in his career. He exited that race to run a game second in the Skinner Memorial at Prairie Meadows in his next outing, beaten a neck. The Pletcher trainee makes his stakes debut here and looks up to the task. He is perfect in two starts over the surface.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 2,3,5,6,8
BEL Race 9 The New York G2 (5:05 ET)
1a Stephanie's Kitten 3-5
7 Riposte 6-1
4 Waltzing Matilda 12-1
5 Eastern Belle 10-1
Analysis: Stephanie's Kitten won the Hillsborough (G3) last out at Tampa Bay in her first start off a four month layoff. She won 1 of 6 last year with three runner up finishes, all in Grade 1 company including a win in the Flower Bowl here and a god second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The extra ground here will suit her and Brown has assured we will see a solid pace by entering the rabbit Kitten's Queen. She runs well with some give to the ground which we might see today. Only real knock is going to be the price, which is going to be very much on the short side.
Riposte won this race last year as the favorite and then went on the bench until February of this year and she is winless in three starts. She finished behind a couple of these last out when fourth in the Sheepshead Bay (G2). Mott tries adding blinkers here and gets Rosario back, the jock aboard this gal for both of her wins since coming to the U.S. She is better than she showed in her last couple of starts and will be a decent price in this spot.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1a to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
BEL Race 10 The Belmont Gold Cup Inv. (5:45 ET
2 Innovation Economy 5-1
11 Reflecting 15-1
5 Red Rifle 7-2
3 Unitarian 3-1
Analysis: Innovation Economy is coming off a sharp win at Keeneland last out beating Alw-2 company over good ground going 1 1/2 miles and did it off a five month layoff. The runner up Xtra Luck returned to win the Louisville handicap (G3) in his next outing on Churchill Downs on May 23. The colt broke his maiden over the turf here and looks as if he has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. He is by Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare that has dropped three other turf winners including stakes winner Seaspeak ($270,262).
Reflecting was second last out against Alw-2 optional claimers, clipping heels just inside the final furlong and beaten just a length. He ran behind a couple of these foes in his precious three starts but now makes his third start since last fall. He ran third in this race last year, beaten just a length at 26-1. The Shug trainee looks as if he is going to be a generous price again here. He is reunited with Rosario who was aboard him in this race last year.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,11 / 2,3,5,11
TRI: 2,11 / 2,3,5,11 / 1,2,3,5,11
Friday June 5
By Michael Dempsey
Weather: Cloudy skies early followed by partial clearing, high of 71. Slight chance of a rain shower. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
BEL Race 1 Alw $90,000N1X (12:50 ET)
7 Garden Princess 5-1
2 Two Taps 5-2
5 Been Here Before 6-1
6 Lady Serena 2-1
Analysis: Garden Princess prompted the early pace while in between foes and weakened to finish fourth last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at Churchill Downs in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden two back going a one turn mile at Gulfstream Park. The runner up and fifth place finisher came out of that race to win next out. She cuts back to one turn here and looking for her to bounce back with a better effort here for the Mott barn. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers.
Two Taps invades from the west coast where last out she battled for the early lead and drew clear late to break her maiden in her second career start. She has three slow drills since landing in New York but the Shirreffs barn does not usually work them fast. She has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out to a mile, by Tapit out of an Indian Charlie mare. The barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 2,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
BEL Race 2 Alw $90,000N1X (1:20 ET)
6 Indian Brut 5-1
3 Speightster 5-2
4 Energetico 8-1
2 Lewys vaporizer 3-1
Analysis: Indian Brut ships back from Florida here last out the colt set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out at Gulfstream Park against Alw-1 optional claimers. The winner Demander came back to beat Alw-2 foes in his next start while the runner up Dance Champion came back to beat Alw-1 company at Keeneland on April 22. Now our top pick comes back off a short freshening and there are several others in here that look quicker early. He does appear as if he still has some upside and should be a fair price.
Speightster was a smart maiden winner in his debut for the Mott barn that usually does not have them fully cranked first time out. The colt came with a five wide bid and rolled on to a seven length win. The colt has worked sharply since his debut and does not need to move forward much off his debut to win at this level.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 3,6 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,10
BEL Race 3 The Jersey Girl (1:52 ET)
1 Noble and a Beauty 8-1
5 Cavorting 5-2
7 Enchanting Lady 8-5
4 Enchantress 4-1
Analysis: Noble and a Beauty faded to finish sixth last out in the gazelle (G2) in her first start going long and returns to sprinting. She won the Cicada on the inner track two back at six furlongs by eight lengths and was beaten in the Ruthless three back by just a neck. She has worked sharply since her last outing for the Violette barn and figures to bounce back with a better effort here on the cut back in distance.
Cavorting was not a threat last out in the Davona Dale (G2) going a mile and cuts back to six furlongs here for her first start off a 3 1/2 month break. She won both of her sprints last year, breaking her maiden in her debut and then winning the Adirondack (G2) at the Spa in her first start against winners. The McLaughlin barn is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back of a 61-180 day layoff.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,4,5,7
BEL Race 4 The Tremont (2:24 ET)
5 Banree 7-2
7 Uncle Vinny 5-2
4 Cat Tree 4-1
1 Cocked and Loaded 8-1
Analysis: Banree was a good looking maiden winner at Keeneland in her debut facing the boys and takes them on again here. She was sent off as the betting favorite and came with a good five wide run and drew clear late with a little something left in the tank. Ward's other runner in here Moment Is Right will scratch. Ward has good numbers with juvies and running fillies against the boys.
Uncle Vinny was hammered at the betting windows when he made his debut in a five horse field here on May 21 and despite getting knocked around early was a sharp winner by 4 1/2 lengths. The $175,000 Keeneland purchase is by Grade 1 winner Uncle Mo out of the stakes winner Arealhotlover ($146,567). With a better break this guy should be right in the mix early.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 5,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,7,10
BEL Race 5 Md Sp Wt (2:56 ET)
12 Apostrophe 12-1
6 Indian Trail 7-2
10 Bow Tie Boss 3-1
1 Fortuitous Path 12-1
Analysis: Apostrophe is a $150,000 Ocala purchase making his debut for the Violette barn that has been on fire with firsters and with maidens in recent months. Over his last 27 first timers he has hit at a 41% clip (with a +ROI). This guy is by Tiznow (8% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Forestry mare that has dropped three winners, top earner Stoic Angel ($58,516). A couple of quick works o the morning tab and he debuts with lasix.
Indian Trail debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 26% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The colt is by Indian Charlie (16% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Arch mare that has dropped a trio of winners including stakes winner Uncle Mo ($1.5 million). The colt spent the winter at Palm Beach Downs and has three solid looking works since getting back to New York.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 6,12 / 1,6,10,12
TRI: 6,12 / 1,6,10,12 / 1,6,9,10,12
BEL Race 6 OClm $62,500N2X (3:28 ET)
2 My Miss Sophia 7-2
4 Chocolatier 3-1
5 Regardez 4-1
1 Fashion Fund 8-1
Analysis: My Miss Sophia makes her first start on turf in her career here for the Mott barn that is 16% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf. The filly won the Gazelle (G2) at the Big A last year in her first start against winners and then ran second to Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She weakened to finish fifth last out in the La Troinne (G1) which was a real tough spot to come back off the bench. She has a work over the turf and Mott must have lied what he saw. She has a couple of sibs that are grass winners and is a half to Florida Derby (G1) winner materiality ($656,028).
Chocolatier is one of two in here long with our third choice that is making their second start off the bench and second since landing in the U.S. with Brown. The filly came off a six month layoff with a sharp win against Alw-1 foes going nine furlongs at Keeneland. The third place finisher Queen's Parade came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing here on May 8. She figures to move forward and faced mostly tougher overseas including running fourth in a Group 3 and sixth in a Group 1.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5
BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:00 ET)
1 Lookaroundcorners 3-1
9 Fire Away 20-1
10 Arghad 12-1
11 Seeking Alpha 7-2
Analysis: Lookaroundcorners crossed the wire in front in his debut at Keeneland by a neck, but was DQ'd as he bulled his way through a group and ended up interfering with several horses and ended up getting placed 10th. One runner came out of the race to graduate next out while three others ran second in their next starts. The Brown barn is 33% winners with second out maidens. Gets another look here although we will have to settle for shorter than his 11-1 last out.
Fire Away makes his second start off a seven month layoff here for the Shug barn. Last out the was outrun early while saving ground and was not a threat in the stretch in a eighth place finish, beaten 4 1?2 lengths for the top spot. he gets a jock upgrade from the bug to Johnny V. and this guy has a nice pedigree. He is by Distorted Humor out of stalks placed A.P. Indy mare that has dropped five winners including a pair of turf winners, top earner stakes winner Mr Speaker ($1 million). I have a feeling we have not seen the best out of this colt and he should be a generous price here.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,9,10,11
TRI: 1,9 / 1,9,10,11 / 1,5,9,10,11
BEL Race 8 The True North G2 (4:32 ET)
5 Dads Caps 4-1
8 Rock Fall 5-2
2 Stallwalkin' Dude 5-1
6 Eastwood 10-1
Analysis: Dads Caps makes his first start since winning the Carter 'Cap (G1) last out, producing his fourth straight triple digit Beyer. The five-year-old owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good tracking trip sitting off the pace. He has not won in four starts over the Belmont Park main track but his last trip here was in the Vosburgh (G1) last fall and he was beaten just a neck and he earned a career top speed fig in that outing.
Rock Fall rolled over $100,000 optional claimers last out by nine lengths earning a 109 Beyer. He only had to beat three foes but they were fast. The third place finisher Delaunay is a multiple graded stakes winner who has ran a Beyer of 109 or higher four times in his career. He exited that race to run a game second in the Skinner Memorial at Prairie Meadows in his next outing, beaten a neck. The Pletcher trainee makes his stakes debut here and looks up to the task. He is perfect in two starts over the surface.
Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 2,3,5,6,8
BEL Race 9 The New York G2 (5:05 ET)
1a Stephanie's Kitten 3-5
7 Riposte 6-1
4 Waltzing Matilda 12-1
5 Eastern Belle 10-1
Analysis: Stephanie's Kitten won the Hillsborough (G3) last out at Tampa Bay in her first start off a four month layoff. She won 1 of 6 last year with three runner up finishes, all in Grade 1 company including a win in the Flower Bowl here and a god second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. The extra ground here will suit her and Brown has assured we will see a solid pace by entering the rabbit Kitten's Queen. She runs well with some give to the ground which we might see today. Only real knock is going to be the price, which is going to be very much on the short side.
Riposte won this race last year as the favorite and then went on the bench until February of this year and she is winless in three starts. She finished behind a couple of these last out when fourth in the Sheepshead Bay (G2). Mott tries adding blinkers here and gets Rosario back, the jock aboard this gal for both of her wins since coming to the U.S. She is better than she showed in her last couple of starts and will be a decent price in this spot.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1a to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
BEL Race 10 The Belmont Gold Cup Inv. (5:45 ET
2 Innovation Economy 5-1
11 Reflecting 15-1
5 Red Rifle 7-2
3 Unitarian 3-1
Analysis: Innovation Economy is coming off a sharp win at Keeneland last out beating Alw-2 company over good ground going 1 1/2 miles and did it off a five month layoff. The runner up Xtra Luck returned to win the Louisville handicap (G3) in his next outing on Churchill Downs on May 23. The colt broke his maiden over the turf here and looks as if he has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. He is by Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare that has dropped three other turf winners including stakes winner Seaspeak ($270,262).
Reflecting was second last out against Alw-2 optional claimers, clipping heels just inside the final furlong and beaten just a length. He ran behind a couple of these foes in his precious three starts but now makes his third start since last fall. He ran third in this race last year, beaten just a length at 26-1. The Shug trainee looks as if he is going to be a generous price again here. He is reunited with Rosario who was aboard him in this race last year.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,11 / 2,3,5,11
TRI: 2,11 / 2,3,5,11 / 1,2,3,5,11
FINN FACTOR BELMONT STAKES
Odds to Win the Belmont Stakes
Frosted most likely to upset!
The horse racing industry loves what awaits them at the Belmont Stakes with Derby and Preakness winner American Pharoah. The Baffert horse has a chance to claim the Triple Crown, the fourteenth time in the last 36 years a horse will take the Belmont Park racetrack with an opportunity to become the 12th Triple Crown champion, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. WagerTalk’s Tony Finn previews the Odds to win the Belmont Stakes.
Is the third time really the charm?
American Pharoah jockey Victor Espinoza is scheduled to ride the Derby and Preakness winner at the 2015 Belmont Stakes giving him a record-breaking third stab at the prestigious Triple Crown award.
On Preakness Saturday, Espinoza arguably gave Baffert’s horse a perfect ride and route out of the No. 1 post position going to an early lead and holding off Mr. Z in the backstretch for the first half of the race before turning galloping down the stretch and distancing himself from the field for an easy win on the slop at Pimlico.
I wrote a similar Odds to win the Triple Crown column when California Chrome faced the same situation as American Pharoah this June and I will tell you the same thing I said then when asked if this was the year we would witness a Triple Crown winner.
I don’t think American Pharoah can.
Why you ask. After all Pharoah is the reigning 2-year-old champion, as were six of the last seven Triple Crown champs. Like Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation, Count Fleet and Whirlaway, The Baffert entry has the pedigree and has shown the endurance to win the grueling Belmont Stakes. In fact the foundation that American Pharoah was built on screams Triple Crown winner. has continued to build on, winning all four of his races as a 3-year-old for a record of six victories in seven starts and more than $3.7 million in purses.
AP (no not Indy) appears to have the stuff that saw horses like Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat that saw them take Belmont by storm right from the gate taking on the ravaging mile and a half race and staking claim to fame. Pharoah Preakness, albeit in the kind of wet conditions that he had proved adept at tackling two months earlier on a similarly sloppy track in Arkansas.
If I were to give you one sound reason why I don’t believe that American Pharoah can win the third leg it would be because he is a California based horse. It isn’t much to stand on, I know, but it is all I have to offer. Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat were all based in New York and trained at Belmont Park.
Each horse was comfortable and familiar with Belmont’s sandy surface and wide turns. While American Pharoah can stake claim to Baffert’s move from California to Kentucky (Churchill Downs) for his time during the Triple Crown, his even money odds to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown are a bad bet.
Who am I to question Baffert but why not give American Pharoah more training time at Belmont Park especially in a field of some very good New York horses like fourth-place Kentucky Derby finisher, Frosted.
Finn Factor Belmont Stakes Free Pick to Click:
Frosted at 5/1
Odds to win the Belmont Stakes
Belmont Stakes – Odds to Win
American Pharoah
1/1
Frosted
5/1
Materiality
15/2
Mubtaahij
14/1
Carpe Diem
16/1
Madefromlucky
22/1
Divining Rod
25/1
Keen Ice
25/1
Tale of Verve
28/1
Conquest Curlinate
33/1
War Story
33/1
Frammento
50/1
Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
Yes
EVEN
No
-140
Will American Pharoah win the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic?
Yes
+350
No
-500
Will American Pharoah win the 2016 Dubai World Cup?
Yes
+300
No
-500
Odds to Win the Belmont Stakes
Frosted most likely to upset!
The horse racing industry loves what awaits them at the Belmont Stakes with Derby and Preakness winner American Pharoah. The Baffert horse has a chance to claim the Triple Crown, the fourteenth time in the last 36 years a horse will take the Belmont Park racetrack with an opportunity to become the 12th Triple Crown champion, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. WagerTalk’s Tony Finn previews the Odds to win the Belmont Stakes.
Is the third time really the charm?
American Pharoah jockey Victor Espinoza is scheduled to ride the Derby and Preakness winner at the 2015 Belmont Stakes giving him a record-breaking third stab at the prestigious Triple Crown award.
On Preakness Saturday, Espinoza arguably gave Baffert’s horse a perfect ride and route out of the No. 1 post position going to an early lead and holding off Mr. Z in the backstretch for the first half of the race before turning galloping down the stretch and distancing himself from the field for an easy win on the slop at Pimlico.
I wrote a similar Odds to win the Triple Crown column when California Chrome faced the same situation as American Pharoah this June and I will tell you the same thing I said then when asked if this was the year we would witness a Triple Crown winner.
I don’t think American Pharoah can.
Why you ask. After all Pharoah is the reigning 2-year-old champion, as were six of the last seven Triple Crown champs. Like Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation, Count Fleet and Whirlaway, The Baffert entry has the pedigree and has shown the endurance to win the grueling Belmont Stakes. In fact the foundation that American Pharoah was built on screams Triple Crown winner. has continued to build on, winning all four of his races as a 3-year-old for a record of six victories in seven starts and more than $3.7 million in purses.
AP (no not Indy) appears to have the stuff that saw horses like Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat that saw them take Belmont by storm right from the gate taking on the ravaging mile and a half race and staking claim to fame. Pharoah Preakness, albeit in the kind of wet conditions that he had proved adept at tackling two months earlier on a similarly sloppy track in Arkansas.
If I were to give you one sound reason why I don’t believe that American Pharoah can win the third leg it would be because he is a California based horse. It isn’t much to stand on, I know, but it is all I have to offer. Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat were all based in New York and trained at Belmont Park.
Each horse was comfortable and familiar with Belmont’s sandy surface and wide turns. While American Pharoah can stake claim to Baffert’s move from California to Kentucky (Churchill Downs) for his time during the Triple Crown, his even money odds to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown are a bad bet.
Who am I to question Baffert but why not give American Pharoah more training time at Belmont Park especially in a field of some very good New York horses like fourth-place Kentucky Derby finisher, Frosted.
Finn Factor Belmont Stakes Free Pick to Click:
Frosted at 5/1
Odds to win the Belmont Stakes
Belmont Stakes – Odds to Win
American Pharoah
1/1
Frosted
5/1
Materiality
15/2
Mubtaahij
14/1
Carpe Diem
16/1
Madefromlucky
22/1
Divining Rod
25/1
Keen Ice
25/1
Tale of Verve
28/1
Conquest Curlinate
33/1
War Story
33/1
Frammento
50/1
Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
Yes
EVEN
No
-140
Will American Pharoah win the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic?
Yes
+350
No
-500
Will American Pharoah win the 2016 Dubai World Cup?
Yes
+300
No
-500
PREDICTEFORM
‘147th Belmont Stakes’ Analysis with Value Plays
Mubtaahij (10/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Mubtaahij before the Derby.
The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors as seven Irish bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of twelfth. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can’t be knocked.
While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures (it’s coming), his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive winning by eight lengths against a good group of international three-year olds. His connections are deeply based in Dubai and if the UAE Derby was a home game, the Kentucky Derby is a road trip.
His sire, Dubawi, stands in Britain for the equivalent of almost $200K USD. He ran third in a Group 1, 12 furlong affair at Epsom and his off spring show success at up to 10 furlongs, but there is still a question as to whether he can get 12 furlongs. Additionally, and even more importantly, his Derby effort was suspect.
Mubtaahij’s Derby effort was just so-so. He had a good stalking spot throughout the race but from mid-stretch to the wire two horses passed him on the outside while two others got him a jump late.
He sports eight previous races with the majority from Dubai. In checking the weather for each racing day from Dubai, it was unseasonably cool with temperatures between 70-80 degrees for each start. With the expectation that his assimilation to the weather and climate will be complete, Mubtaahij will have no excuse.
From a Pace Figure perspective, his one race in the US was a 77.4/68.2 REV, Reversal Pattern. An indication of the first time a runner has a faster final figure than 4f figure, this REV pattern gets discounted as it was his first start and very likely would occur in his first start at this Grade I level going a route of ground (> one mile).
As a matter of course, only one runner in this 2015 Belmont Stakes Field does not have a faster final figure then 4f figure…American Pharoah.
The biggest plus for Moob-ta-he-ga is the jockey change from a very good international jockey to the top rider at the Belmont Spring Meet, Irad Ortiz Jr. winning at a 27% clip.
The Play: Regressor – weakening in the stretch at 10 furlongs doesn’t instill confidence at 12 furlongs.
Tale of Verve (15/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Tale of Verve prior to the Preakness.
A maiden only winner, Tale of the Verve tries the impossible jump to Grade I competition. He’s won $54k lifetime and took five tries to get his first win. His average final Pace Figure is ten points below the top three.
Picking up the pieces late, Tale of Verve finished second in the Preakness to American Pharoah at odds of 28/1. Moving from maiden company to the Preakness Stakes and finishing second is amazing, but much of that credit goes to American Pharoah. It was anybody’s race for second in the Preakness and once the rain started, the options lessened to the runners that didn’t mind being pelted…however, the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs is a different game. In this year’s case, the Preakness was minor league.
Tale of Verve’s final pace figures are the slowest in the field. And even if the Preakness final figure is discounted due to the rain (which we are not saying), he is still too slow by five lengths.
The jockey change to Gary Stevens makes for a storyline but his figures say otherwise. Add to it just 21 days rest and the cards are stacked against Tale of Verve.
The Play: Too Slow – his last final figure is three points slower than the rest of the field. To duplicate hitting the board as a longshot in the Belmont will be near impossible.
Madefromlucky (12/1)
Madefromlucky has not dipped his toe in the water in the Triple Crown series until now. Here’s what we had to say about Madefromlucky prior to the Arkansas Derby (which American Pharoah won):
After a successful jump into Graded Stakes competition, Madefromlucky takes on American Pharoah again, who beat him handily last out in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. That being said, there are a few interesting angles to like. He makes his third start for top trainer Todd Pletcher, big-game rider Johnnie V stays aboard and he is coming off 28 days of rest, perfectly spaced. His half-sister, A Shin Gold (by Medaglia d’Oro), was a very good race horse in Japan, winning almost $1mm including the Japan Dirt.
His most recent Pace Figure showed a five point regression from 73.4 – 68.3 but it aligns with American Pharoah’s regression, likely due to a very heavy track.
And while he finished a semi-competitive fourth in the Arkansas Derby, his most recent effort in the Peter Pan garners interest. Here’s what we said about Madefromlucky in the blog post from earlier in the week:
Madefromlucky ran in the Peter Pan and won, just like Tonalist did prior to his Belmont Stakes win last year. As seen from the chart, Madefromlucky has similar Final and Four Furlong figures to Tonalist entering the last leg of the Triple Crown (about two points off for each). Furthermore, both horses were coming off positive Form Cycle Patterns, Tonalist and his NPT (New Pace Top), while Madefromlucky is currently sitting on a SOFT Pattern (with a previous NPT). Read the full blog post on the value of Madefromlucky here.
Sent off as the fourth choice in a field of just five in the Peter Pan, he rallied into a slow pace, raced four wide while lugging in down the stretch, still winning while going away at a margin of closer to two lengths than one.
Madefromlucky is the second runner in the race from the Todd Pletcher barn and has the top jockey at Belmont Park (and in the US), Javier Castellano on board to ride. Lucky is also one of two runners to previously race at Belmont Park and the only one with a win.
The Play: Breakout/Fringe Contender – New shooter status and series of positive Form Cycle Patterns creates value at morning line odds of 12/1 and still a strong play at double-digit odds currently.
Frammento (30/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Frammento before the Derby.
After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, number 20. While you can’t win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race. He’s earned only $140k, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time. Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.
Another who ran a lifetime top in the Derby, Frammento did improve his lifetime best final figure by almost three points. Though, he was beat by double-digit lengths, which oftentimes is the “line in the sand.”
However, logic can be tossed out the window when you look at his trainer Nick Zito. Zito trained not one, but two Belmont Stakes winners who upset Triple Crown hopefuls! Birdstone in 2004 who upset Smarty Jones (at 3/10) paying $74 to win and Da’ Tara who paid $79 in winning the 2008 Belmont after Big Brown (3/10), refused to run.
Jockey Mike Smith agrees to ride him for the first time which is a huge plus after six different riders in his previous eight starts. Smith is well known for getting horses to relax and charge late. Smith has won two of the last five Belmont Stakes with Palace Malice in 2013 and Drosselmeyer in 2010 as well as finishing second in 2012 with Paynter (ironically owned by Zayat Stables).
The Play: Too Slow – Not much to get excited about, the only difference between Frammento and having absolutely no shot is the Zito/Smith combo.
American Pharoah (3/5)
What more can be said about American Pharoah. He’s overcome two challenging post positions to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. While the final time in the Kentucky Derby was considered slow, his Derby Pace Figures were excellent. His ability to run through his lifetime Top Pace Figure (81.4) to win the most high profile race in the world from an outside post was a sign of greatness.
He quieted all doubters by dominating the Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion from the rail while running an 81.5 four furlong figure. This is the type of inter-race figure reserved for stakes caliber sprinters and milers, so posting it on the front end of a 9.5 furlong Grade I race is mega-impressive. And while his final figure in the Preakness was just 73.4, he earned an NPT (New Pace Top), the strongest pattern on dirt. The NPT designation occurs when a horse runs its fastest 4f figure of its career yet does not finish with its max final figure. His open length win, while dialed down at the end could also contribute to the 73.4 final.
From a breeding perspective, his Sire is Pioneerofthenile who was owned by Zayat and trained by Baffert. His Grand Sire (Sire of his Sire) was Empire Maker who won the 2003 Belmont Stakes. There is little to report on the Dam side other than to say his Dam, Littleprincessemma is also owned by Zayat. Trainer Bob Baffert takes his fourth shot at trainer immortality; looking for his first Triple Crown (you can watch all the Triple Crown near misses here).
Standing in American Pharoah’s Triple Crown path is not his past performances, pace or speed figures, rather what has taken down the twelve prior Triple Crown contenders: How will he fare running the mile and a half (12 furlongs), which is just once around the biggest track in North America known as “Big Sandy?” Will the other jocks try and race ride Victor Espinoza (think playing the man in poker and not the cards)? Will one of AP’s competitors quietly be sitting on the biggest race of its lifetime? Will AP’s third race in five weeks (and fourth race in eight weeks), including his Preakness effort over a completely muddy and sticky surface, take a toll?
This family affair comes full circle back to New York and after 36 years and 371 days, the connections of American Pharoah can almost taste the Triple Crown, can you?
The Play: Top Contender – Only one Triple Crown contender went off at odds over even money (War Emblem was 6/5 in 2002). American Pharoah is expected to be punished down on the tote board near 2/5, which would require over 70% confidence to bet. By our analysis, American Pharoah is the most likely winner of the Belmont and should win this race (and, thus, the Triple Crown) just over 50% of the time. From a value perspective, there is little.
Frosted (5/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Frosted prior to Kentucky Derby.
An early career “hanger” (a horse that comes close but doesn’t win), Frosted was just one for six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.
His Final Pace Figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12 point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.
From a Pace Figure perspective, Frosted’s Derby effort was significant. He ran his fastest lifetime final figure of 80, three points quicker than the aforementioned 77.3, with an increasing dirt spread (which means he is conserving his energy later in the race). These back-to-back strong final figures are an illustration of his improvement since his throat surgery in March that has turned him into the Grade I caliber competitor his connections hoped, essentially a different horse from his earlier racing career. From a Pace Figure perspective, we have given significant weight to his post-surgery numbers.
Visually speaking, his Kentucky Derby effort was impressive. He passed a number of horses coming from far back.
Frosted is better bred to go a mile and a half than any other runner in this field. He is by Tapit, the perennial leading stallion in North America who stands for $300k and his half-brother Tonalist (same Sire) won last year’s Belmont. His Dam Sire, Deputy Minister (mother’s dad), has produced three Belmont winners and a second in a dozen years. Read the full Belmont Stakes Breeding Analysis here.
Belmont Park is considered home turf for both Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (29-10-4-4), who is off to a strong Belmont meet, and jockey Joel Rosario. In essence, and unlike the Derby, this is their home court. Lastly, Frosted is one of two runners with a start at Belmont.
The Play: Fringe Contender/Contender – There is a lot in this analysis to indicate he has been pointing to this race for awhile. His morning-line odds of 5/1 are still shorter than they should be in an eight horse field that condenses value. While he is one of three runners with a shot to upset American Pharoah, it’s tough to fully buy into his post-surgery numbers and expect him to continue to progress forward.
Keen Ice (20/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Keen Ice prior to the Derby.
With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160k, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You’ve got to hand it to his trainer Dale Romans, who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start (albeit 2% for running fifth). Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O’Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive. His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74, but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a two year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern. The Play: Mega longshot – if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.
Keen Ice ran a sneaky good Kentucky Derby on the track and from a figure perspective. He finished with a 77.7 final figure, his best lifetime final figure by almost four points, while running a 4f figure of just 60, also a lifetime low. His dirt spread (final figure minus the four furlong figure) was 17.7, the largest in the field.
Visually speaking, Keen Ice was 14th at the top of the stretch; he had to zigzag through horses and got knocked off his right lead at the sixteenth pole (horses in North America lead with their left on turns and right on straight-aways). And while this had no impact on where he finished, it does allow for some belief that he could improve off that effort without trouble.
Sired by Curlin (who ran second in the Belmont in 2007), Keen Ice’s half brother, Palace Malice won the 2013 Belmont Stakes. Breeding wise, at least on the top (from the dad), Keen Ice is solid.
Kent Desormeaux retains the mount on Keen Ice, the very same jockey that rode Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont Stakes; the most ungracious of all Triple Crown beats…ever.
The Play: Too Slow – While he should eat up the extra distance, his figures say he is too slow still to finish in the top three.
Materiality (6/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Materiality prior to the Kentucky Derby.
The most lightly raced horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome “the granddaddy of Derby rules,” as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years-old – Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are ZERO for 57. His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.
His sixth place finish passing horses in the stretch was better than expected.
His Derby Final Figure was 78.1, the fastest Final Figure of his lifetime by almost three points, while posting his lowest 4f figure. This led to his career best positive dirt spread lifetime (final figure minus four furlong figure) and, similar to Frosted, it means Materiality is learning how to manage and more evenly distribute his pace.
Visually speaking, Materiality ran a heck of a race. He was almost dead last from my perspective after watching the race 20 plus times (not from the PP’s) and rallied up the inside to pass eight horses while finishing a quick moving sixth.
Jockey Johnnie Velazquez retakes the mount as he guided Materiality to his three previous victories, while Trainer Todd Pletcher has lit up the Belmont Park Spring Meet winning at a clip of 49% while being in the money 79% (yes, really).
From a breeding perspective, Materiality is by Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Belmont Stakes, a possible indication that he can handle the 12 furlong distance.
The Play: Fringe Contender/Regressor – if Johnny Velazquez can keep Materiality close to the lead, he’s got a decent chance to steal the race, giving him some value at 6/1, but that will be tough in this field and he’s at least as likely to regress.
‘147th Belmont Stakes’ Analysis with Value Plays
Mubtaahij (10/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Mubtaahij before the Derby.
The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors as seven Irish bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of twelfth. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can’t be knocked.
While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures (it’s coming), his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive winning by eight lengths against a good group of international three-year olds. His connections are deeply based in Dubai and if the UAE Derby was a home game, the Kentucky Derby is a road trip.
His sire, Dubawi, stands in Britain for the equivalent of almost $200K USD. He ran third in a Group 1, 12 furlong affair at Epsom and his off spring show success at up to 10 furlongs, but there is still a question as to whether he can get 12 furlongs. Additionally, and even more importantly, his Derby effort was suspect.
Mubtaahij’s Derby effort was just so-so. He had a good stalking spot throughout the race but from mid-stretch to the wire two horses passed him on the outside while two others got him a jump late.
He sports eight previous races with the majority from Dubai. In checking the weather for each racing day from Dubai, it was unseasonably cool with temperatures between 70-80 degrees for each start. With the expectation that his assimilation to the weather and climate will be complete, Mubtaahij will have no excuse.
From a Pace Figure perspective, his one race in the US was a 77.4/68.2 REV, Reversal Pattern. An indication of the first time a runner has a faster final figure than 4f figure, this REV pattern gets discounted as it was his first start and very likely would occur in his first start at this Grade I level going a route of ground (> one mile).
As a matter of course, only one runner in this 2015 Belmont Stakes Field does not have a faster final figure then 4f figure…American Pharoah.
The biggest plus for Moob-ta-he-ga is the jockey change from a very good international jockey to the top rider at the Belmont Spring Meet, Irad Ortiz Jr. winning at a 27% clip.
The Play: Regressor – weakening in the stretch at 10 furlongs doesn’t instill confidence at 12 furlongs.
Tale of Verve (15/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Tale of Verve prior to the Preakness.
A maiden only winner, Tale of the Verve tries the impossible jump to Grade I competition. He’s won $54k lifetime and took five tries to get his first win. His average final Pace Figure is ten points below the top three.
Picking up the pieces late, Tale of Verve finished second in the Preakness to American Pharoah at odds of 28/1. Moving from maiden company to the Preakness Stakes and finishing second is amazing, but much of that credit goes to American Pharoah. It was anybody’s race for second in the Preakness and once the rain started, the options lessened to the runners that didn’t mind being pelted…however, the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs is a different game. In this year’s case, the Preakness was minor league.
Tale of Verve’s final pace figures are the slowest in the field. And even if the Preakness final figure is discounted due to the rain (which we are not saying), he is still too slow by five lengths.
The jockey change to Gary Stevens makes for a storyline but his figures say otherwise. Add to it just 21 days rest and the cards are stacked against Tale of Verve.
The Play: Too Slow – his last final figure is three points slower than the rest of the field. To duplicate hitting the board as a longshot in the Belmont will be near impossible.
Madefromlucky (12/1)
Madefromlucky has not dipped his toe in the water in the Triple Crown series until now. Here’s what we had to say about Madefromlucky prior to the Arkansas Derby (which American Pharoah won):
After a successful jump into Graded Stakes competition, Madefromlucky takes on American Pharoah again, who beat him handily last out in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. That being said, there are a few interesting angles to like. He makes his third start for top trainer Todd Pletcher, big-game rider Johnnie V stays aboard and he is coming off 28 days of rest, perfectly spaced. His half-sister, A Shin Gold (by Medaglia d’Oro), was a very good race horse in Japan, winning almost $1mm including the Japan Dirt.
His most recent Pace Figure showed a five point regression from 73.4 – 68.3 but it aligns with American Pharoah’s regression, likely due to a very heavy track.
And while he finished a semi-competitive fourth in the Arkansas Derby, his most recent effort in the Peter Pan garners interest. Here’s what we said about Madefromlucky in the blog post from earlier in the week:
Madefromlucky ran in the Peter Pan and won, just like Tonalist did prior to his Belmont Stakes win last year. As seen from the chart, Madefromlucky has similar Final and Four Furlong figures to Tonalist entering the last leg of the Triple Crown (about two points off for each). Furthermore, both horses were coming off positive Form Cycle Patterns, Tonalist and his NPT (New Pace Top), while Madefromlucky is currently sitting on a SOFT Pattern (with a previous NPT). Read the full blog post on the value of Madefromlucky here.
Sent off as the fourth choice in a field of just five in the Peter Pan, he rallied into a slow pace, raced four wide while lugging in down the stretch, still winning while going away at a margin of closer to two lengths than one.
Madefromlucky is the second runner in the race from the Todd Pletcher barn and has the top jockey at Belmont Park (and in the US), Javier Castellano on board to ride. Lucky is also one of two runners to previously race at Belmont Park and the only one with a win.
The Play: Breakout/Fringe Contender – New shooter status and series of positive Form Cycle Patterns creates value at morning line odds of 12/1 and still a strong play at double-digit odds currently.
Frammento (30/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Frammento before the Derby.
After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, number 20. While you can’t win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race. He’s earned only $140k, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time. Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.
Another who ran a lifetime top in the Derby, Frammento did improve his lifetime best final figure by almost three points. Though, he was beat by double-digit lengths, which oftentimes is the “line in the sand.”
However, logic can be tossed out the window when you look at his trainer Nick Zito. Zito trained not one, but two Belmont Stakes winners who upset Triple Crown hopefuls! Birdstone in 2004 who upset Smarty Jones (at 3/10) paying $74 to win and Da’ Tara who paid $79 in winning the 2008 Belmont after Big Brown (3/10), refused to run.
Jockey Mike Smith agrees to ride him for the first time which is a huge plus after six different riders in his previous eight starts. Smith is well known for getting horses to relax and charge late. Smith has won two of the last five Belmont Stakes with Palace Malice in 2013 and Drosselmeyer in 2010 as well as finishing second in 2012 with Paynter (ironically owned by Zayat Stables).
The Play: Too Slow – Not much to get excited about, the only difference between Frammento and having absolutely no shot is the Zito/Smith combo.
American Pharoah (3/5)
What more can be said about American Pharoah. He’s overcome two challenging post positions to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. While the final time in the Kentucky Derby was considered slow, his Derby Pace Figures were excellent. His ability to run through his lifetime Top Pace Figure (81.4) to win the most high profile race in the world from an outside post was a sign of greatness.
He quieted all doubters by dominating the Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion from the rail while running an 81.5 four furlong figure. This is the type of inter-race figure reserved for stakes caliber sprinters and milers, so posting it on the front end of a 9.5 furlong Grade I race is mega-impressive. And while his final figure in the Preakness was just 73.4, he earned an NPT (New Pace Top), the strongest pattern on dirt. The NPT designation occurs when a horse runs its fastest 4f figure of its career yet does not finish with its max final figure. His open length win, while dialed down at the end could also contribute to the 73.4 final.
From a breeding perspective, his Sire is Pioneerofthenile who was owned by Zayat and trained by Baffert. His Grand Sire (Sire of his Sire) was Empire Maker who won the 2003 Belmont Stakes. There is little to report on the Dam side other than to say his Dam, Littleprincessemma is also owned by Zayat. Trainer Bob Baffert takes his fourth shot at trainer immortality; looking for his first Triple Crown (you can watch all the Triple Crown near misses here).
Standing in American Pharoah’s Triple Crown path is not his past performances, pace or speed figures, rather what has taken down the twelve prior Triple Crown contenders: How will he fare running the mile and a half (12 furlongs), which is just once around the biggest track in North America known as “Big Sandy?” Will the other jocks try and race ride Victor Espinoza (think playing the man in poker and not the cards)? Will one of AP’s competitors quietly be sitting on the biggest race of its lifetime? Will AP’s third race in five weeks (and fourth race in eight weeks), including his Preakness effort over a completely muddy and sticky surface, take a toll?
This family affair comes full circle back to New York and after 36 years and 371 days, the connections of American Pharoah can almost taste the Triple Crown, can you?
The Play: Top Contender – Only one Triple Crown contender went off at odds over even money (War Emblem was 6/5 in 2002). American Pharoah is expected to be punished down on the tote board near 2/5, which would require over 70% confidence to bet. By our analysis, American Pharoah is the most likely winner of the Belmont and should win this race (and, thus, the Triple Crown) just over 50% of the time. From a value perspective, there is little.
Frosted (5/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Frosted prior to Kentucky Derby.
An early career “hanger” (a horse that comes close but doesn’t win), Frosted was just one for six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.
His Final Pace Figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12 point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.
From a Pace Figure perspective, Frosted’s Derby effort was significant. He ran his fastest lifetime final figure of 80, three points quicker than the aforementioned 77.3, with an increasing dirt spread (which means he is conserving his energy later in the race). These back-to-back strong final figures are an illustration of his improvement since his throat surgery in March that has turned him into the Grade I caliber competitor his connections hoped, essentially a different horse from his earlier racing career. From a Pace Figure perspective, we have given significant weight to his post-surgery numbers.
Visually speaking, his Kentucky Derby effort was impressive. He passed a number of horses coming from far back.
Frosted is better bred to go a mile and a half than any other runner in this field. He is by Tapit, the perennial leading stallion in North America who stands for $300k and his half-brother Tonalist (same Sire) won last year’s Belmont. His Dam Sire, Deputy Minister (mother’s dad), has produced three Belmont winners and a second in a dozen years. Read the full Belmont Stakes Breeding Analysis here.
Belmont Park is considered home turf for both Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (29-10-4-4), who is off to a strong Belmont meet, and jockey Joel Rosario. In essence, and unlike the Derby, this is their home court. Lastly, Frosted is one of two runners with a start at Belmont.
The Play: Fringe Contender/Contender – There is a lot in this analysis to indicate he has been pointing to this race for awhile. His morning-line odds of 5/1 are still shorter than they should be in an eight horse field that condenses value. While he is one of three runners with a shot to upset American Pharoah, it’s tough to fully buy into his post-surgery numbers and expect him to continue to progress forward.
Keen Ice (20/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Keen Ice prior to the Derby.
With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160k, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You’ve got to hand it to his trainer Dale Romans, who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start (albeit 2% for running fifth). Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O’Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive. His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74, but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a two year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern. The Play: Mega longshot – if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.
Keen Ice ran a sneaky good Kentucky Derby on the track and from a figure perspective. He finished with a 77.7 final figure, his best lifetime final figure by almost four points, while running a 4f figure of just 60, also a lifetime low. His dirt spread (final figure minus the four furlong figure) was 17.7, the largest in the field.
Visually speaking, Keen Ice was 14th at the top of the stretch; he had to zigzag through horses and got knocked off his right lead at the sixteenth pole (horses in North America lead with their left on turns and right on straight-aways). And while this had no impact on where he finished, it does allow for some belief that he could improve off that effort without trouble.
Sired by Curlin (who ran second in the Belmont in 2007), Keen Ice’s half brother, Palace Malice won the 2013 Belmont Stakes. Breeding wise, at least on the top (from the dad), Keen Ice is solid.
Kent Desormeaux retains the mount on Keen Ice, the very same jockey that rode Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont Stakes; the most ungracious of all Triple Crown beats…ever.
The Play: Too Slow – While he should eat up the extra distance, his figures say he is too slow still to finish in the top three.
Materiality (6/1)
Here’s what we had to say about Materiality prior to the Kentucky Derby.
The most lightly raced horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome “the granddaddy of Derby rules,” as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years-old – Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are ZERO for 57. His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.
His sixth place finish passing horses in the stretch was better than expected.
His Derby Final Figure was 78.1, the fastest Final Figure of his lifetime by almost three points, while posting his lowest 4f figure. This led to his career best positive dirt spread lifetime (final figure minus four furlong figure) and, similar to Frosted, it means Materiality is learning how to manage and more evenly distribute his pace.
Visually speaking, Materiality ran a heck of a race. He was almost dead last from my perspective after watching the race 20 plus times (not from the PP’s) and rallied up the inside to pass eight horses while finishing a quick moving sixth.
Jockey Johnnie Velazquez retakes the mount as he guided Materiality to his three previous victories, while Trainer Todd Pletcher has lit up the Belmont Park Spring Meet winning at a clip of 49% while being in the money 79% (yes, really).
From a breeding perspective, Materiality is by Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Belmont Stakes, a possible indication that he can handle the 12 furlong distance.
The Play: Fringe Contender/Regressor – if Johnny Velazquez can keep Materiality close to the lead, he’s got a decent chance to steal the race, giving him some value at 6/1, but that will be tough in this field and he’s at least as likely to regress.
*Belmont Breeding Analysis*
The Belmont Stakes is literally one of a kind. Beyond being the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, it is run five weeks after the Kentucky Derby and just three weeks following the Preakness. These young horses have to withstand the “Test of Champions,” traversing Belmont Park’s one and a half mile oval nick named “Big Sandy.” Named for good reason, “Big Sandy” took its toll on 12 prior Triple Crown Contenders since 1978, but none more than Real Quiet in 1998 who lost by a nose at the wire after drawing off by six lengths mid stretch.
Still considered the greatest disappointment in modern day racing, this video of Real Quiet getting “nosed” strikes the chord that no horse is safe in the Belmont Stakes. Ironically enough, it was trainer Bob Baffert, who was served a lifetime of upset in one plateful of Big Sandy, that now looks to turn the tables 17 years later with American Pharoah.
Deservedly so, the pundits have compiled a litany of intricate reasons why the Triple Crown has become daunting. But for just one moment, let’s step back from the inane and focus on a fixed and measureable input – distance. The Belmont Stakes is the longest Grade Stakes race for three year-olds in the country at a mile and a half, which is just once around Belmont Park.
With that, we thought it made sense to look at the Sire (father), Grand Sire (grandfather) and the Grand Dam (father of mother) and see how those connections for each Belmont runner fared in the same race prior. For this exercise we include the Dam’s name (mother) but eliminate any reference to the Belmont since none of these Dams have ever produced a horse to run in the Belmont.
Here are the lineage connections that stand out from the Sire side:
American Pharoah’s Grand Sire won the Belmont in 2003.
Materiality’s Sire won the Belmont in 2005
Frosted’s half brother Tonalist won last year’s Belmont.
Keen Ice’s Grand Sire, Curlin ran second in 2007 and his half brother Palice Malice won the Belmont in 2013.
On the Dam side, only one runner really stands out:
*Frosted’s Dam Sire has produced three Belmont winners and a second since 2000.
Conclusion:
*Frosted is the only runner with lineage on both the sire and dam side with proven distance ability at the Belmont Stakes distance of a mile and a half.
The Belmont Stakes is literally one of a kind. Beyond being the third leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, it is run five weeks after the Kentucky Derby and just three weeks following the Preakness. These young horses have to withstand the “Test of Champions,” traversing Belmont Park’s one and a half mile oval nick named “Big Sandy.” Named for good reason, “Big Sandy” took its toll on 12 prior Triple Crown Contenders since 1978, but none more than Real Quiet in 1998 who lost by a nose at the wire after drawing off by six lengths mid stretch.
Still considered the greatest disappointment in modern day racing, this video of Real Quiet getting “nosed” strikes the chord that no horse is safe in the Belmont Stakes. Ironically enough, it was trainer Bob Baffert, who was served a lifetime of upset in one plateful of Big Sandy, that now looks to turn the tables 17 years later with American Pharoah.
Deservedly so, the pundits have compiled a litany of intricate reasons why the Triple Crown has become daunting. But for just one moment, let’s step back from the inane and focus on a fixed and measureable input – distance. The Belmont Stakes is the longest Grade Stakes race for three year-olds in the country at a mile and a half, which is just once around Belmont Park.
With that, we thought it made sense to look at the Sire (father), Grand Sire (grandfather) and the Grand Dam (father of mother) and see how those connections for each Belmont runner fared in the same race prior. For this exercise we include the Dam’s name (mother) but eliminate any reference to the Belmont since none of these Dams have ever produced a horse to run in the Belmont.
Here are the lineage connections that stand out from the Sire side:
American Pharoah’s Grand Sire won the Belmont in 2003.
Materiality’s Sire won the Belmont in 2005
Frosted’s half brother Tonalist won last year’s Belmont.
Keen Ice’s Grand Sire, Curlin ran second in 2007 and his half brother Palice Malice won the Belmont in 2013.
On the Dam side, only one runner really stands out:
*Frosted’s Dam Sire has produced three Belmont winners and a second since 2000.
Conclusion:
*Frosted is the only runner with lineage on both the sire and dam side with proven distance ability at the Belmont Stakes distance of a mile and a half.
