146TH BELMONT STAKES
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
1 Medal Count Robby Albarado Dale Romans 20-1
2 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 3-5
3 Matterhorn Joe Bravo Todd Pletcher 30-1
4 Commanding Curve Shaun Bridgmohan Dallas Stewart 15-1
5 Ride On Curlin John Velazquez Billy Gowan 12-1
6 Matuszak Mike Smith Bill Mott 30-1
7 Samraat Jose Ortiz Rick Violette 20-1
8 Commissioner Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 20-1
9 Wicked Strong Rajiv Maragh Jimmy Jerkens 6-1
10 General a Rod Rosie Napravnik Mike Maker 20-1
11 Tonalist Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 8-1
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS
1 Medal Count Robby Albarado Dale Romans 20-1
2 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 3-5
3 Matterhorn Joe Bravo Todd Pletcher 30-1
4 Commanding Curve Shaun Bridgmohan Dallas Stewart 15-1
5 Ride On Curlin John Velazquez Billy Gowan 12-1
6 Matuszak Mike Smith Bill Mott 30-1
7 Samraat Jose Ortiz Rick Violette 20-1
8 Commissioner Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 20-1
9 Wicked Strong Rajiv Maragh Jimmy Jerkens 6-1
10 General a Rod Rosie Napravnik Mike Maker 20-1
11 Tonalist Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 8-1
Belmont or Bust!
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider
We'll be making the trek back to New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 7. After all, we've been there for the last three chances (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004, and Big Brown in 2008) horses have had at the Triple Crown. S2o we owe it to California Chrome to see if he can achieve what those three champions and countless others couldn't.
For us, the electricity at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line is like no other sporting event we have witnessed in person. And we've seen plenty, from Super Bowls to Rose Bowls and the Kentucky Derby.
And if they can call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, they can call the Belmont the most exciting two-and-a-half minutes in sports.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where average race fans have almost no chance to show up on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and actually see the race, or Pimlico, where getting a view of the Preakness is almost impossible unless you can squeeze into the apron or get one of those hard-to-find seats in the grandstand, the Belmont really is a people's event. Anyone can attend, no reservations required (although they're suggested if you actually want a seat in the expansive grandstand).
Belmont's grand size has something to do with it. The big track can easily accommodate crowds over 100,000 without having to funnel fans into the infield (indeed, there is no infield seating, or standing, at Belmont). Moreover, when we say anyone can show up and see the race, we mean it; very affordable grandstand ticket sales the day of the race actually get patrons onto the apron, where if they can find a spot or otherwise crane their necks, they can watch the Belmont unfold right in front of their eyes. By spending a few more bucks, any fan can get into the Club House on Belmont Day and get a view closer to the finish line in a bit more comfy (but still crowded) surroundings. Showing up on race day for the Derby or Preakness might allow a fan to get on to the grounds, but not out to the apron to actually watch the race.
And though some have romanticized about the "infield experience" at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, we have long felt that spectacle is overrated; it often regresses into one more reminiscent of NASCAR events than a horse race, which is one reason Pimlico has stopped allowing patrons to being in their own beer for the Preakness. But we don't have to worry about that at Belmont, because the infield retains its dignity (meaning no patrons) at all times.
Moreover, transportation to the track is a snap via the Long Island Railroad; there's no reason to brave the Long Island Expressway with your car. Trains drop you off right at Belmont Park's own station, and plenty of extra trains are running from Penn Station on Belmont day. In the past, that's been the way to go on our trips up from Washington and Philadelphia; we'll just leave our car at the Metropark station off the Garden State Parkway, take an NJ Transit train into Manhattan, then switch to the LIRR at Penn Station. Convenient, somewhat comfortable, and without the sort of massive headaches associated with parking in Louisville for Derby Day, or in Baltimore for the Preakness, especially since there's no significant parking available at Pimlico even on a day without a big crowd.
Belmont Park, however, is almost palatial, a racing facility that wreaks of elegance and grandeur. When reconstruction was finished in 1968, Belmont Park became a real jewel in the horse racing world, and it still is today. It's also probably the last "mega-track" we'll see built in our lifetimes; facilities built since, such as the Texas tracks in Dallas-Fort Worth (Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie) and Houston (Sam Houston Park), have no use for such expansive grandstand seating. Indeed, the "new Belmont" (although even it is now 46 years old) will probably live on as the last great race track built in the States for a long, long time.
We remember plenty of exciting Belmonts where no Triple Crown was at stake, although we have to admit that there is something special about being out on Long Island when there's a chance a horse can complete the trick.
As mentioned before, We've been there for the last three tries (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in '04, and Big Brown in 2008), and can say that the excitement and anticipation before those races exceeded that of any other sports events we've seen in person during our lifetime, including Super Bowls, Rose Bowls, and various other championship games.
The New York flavor permeates the track; we recall getting a kick out of seeing the Giants' Michael Strahan mingling with the masses on Smarty Jones' try at the Crown in 2004, and noticed how Jimmy Fallon was enjoying himself tremendously when hanging out with the crowd when Big Brown tried and failed to win the Triple Crown in 2008. And who couldn't notice Bo Derek (left) as she watched Big Brown in 2008, either. Other prominent New Yorkers make sure to be in attendance as well. In fact, we've been so enthralled by our Belmont experiences that when we are asked what are the top sports events someone should see in their lifetime, the Belmont, when a Triple Crown is at stake, now tops our list.
Indeed, the drama and allure of the Belmont is probably best exemplified not when the Secretariats and Seattle Slews and Affirmeds won the Triple Crown, but rather when all of the great horses have tried and failed. Follow along.
In the half-century that I've been following the sport, I've seen 19 horses try to win the Triple Crown. Only three of them, in a 5-year span in the mid '70s (Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, Affirmed in '78), turned the trick. Almost all of those who came into the Belmont looked a good bet to win, just as Big Brown did in 2008, the last time a Triple Crown was on the line at the Belmont.
Those favored horses from the past included Spectacular Bid.
Veteran racegoers all roll their eyes when the name Spectacular Bid (right) pops up. This was a magnificent thoroughbred. Ask a lot of knowledgeable railbirds about who was the better horse between the Bid and Secretariat, and you'd be surprised at how many would opt for the Bid.
But he couldn't win the Belmont.
The year was 1979, and for all the world it looked as if we were going to have back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew was unbeaten when he turned the trick two years earlier, and Affirmed had proven, if nothing else, that he was as gallant as any thoroughbred champ when he outdueled Alydar in all three legs the year before. Neither, however, looked like Spectacular Bid when winning the first two legs of Crown. The Bid, dominant at the Derby and Preakness, would go off at 1/5 in New York, shorter odds than those on Big Brown in 2008 or any of the other Triple Crown hopefuls in recent Belmonts.
The Bid was Dr. Fager-like good, one of those etched indelibly in the minds of any racing enthusiast who ever saw him run. And he looked like he would put the Belmont into his satchel, too, especially turning for home 30 years ago, leading the field. But that final eighth can be a bear, and the Bid, who, like any three-year-old at this stage had never had to run this mile-and-a-half distance, began to waver. Jockey Ronnie Franklin hit the accelerator a bit too soon on the Bid, down the backstretch, and even though he looked clear at the top of the stretch, Franklin had asked for too much, too soon. Suddenly, William Haggin Perry's colt, Coastal, rolled up on the outside, and, to the astonishment of the crowd, went past the Bid in the final sixteenth. Coastal won; the Bid faded to third.
Had there never been a horse named "Upset" to deal Man 'o War his only loss, we might have instead had the word "coastal" instead of "upset" referring to that surprise-defeat term. But indeed, Spectacular Bid had lost. And though trainer Bud Delp lamented at the time that the Bid had stepped on a pin that morning and hurt his foot, most racegoers chalked that down to sour grapes on Delp's part. In the Belmont, The Bid had looked very much like a champ for 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/8 miles, even 1 7/16...but not at a mile-and-a-half.
The pin didn't beat Spectacular Bid. The Belmont did.
Like it has for a lot of great horses over the past 40-odd years. It has now been 36 years since Steve Cauthen and Affirmed (left) fought off Alydar in the stretch to win the '78 Belmont and become the last Triple Crown winner, and when the late, great race caller Chic Anderson, in his last Belmont, told viewers that "We'll test these two to the wire!" But in that span (since 1964), as mentioned above, 19 horses have won the first two legs of the Crown. Sixteen of those, including some truly great runners, have failed. We can remember back to 1964, when the great Canadian champ, Northern Dancer, destined to become the sire of all sires, won the first two legs, seeing off the classy Hill Rise in a grueling Kentucky Derby, then winning more handily at the Preakness. On to the Belmont Stakes, which, for a short span between 1963-67, was run at nearby Aqueduct, while the Belmont facility was rebuilt. An odd sight it was, those Belmonts at Aqueduct, where the race started at the head of the far turn at that 1 1/8-mile oval. And Northern Dancer, under Bill Hartack, was looking awfully good for a mile and-a-quarter in that '64 Belmont, and seemed poised at the head of the stretch to add the final leg of the Crown to his collection. But Hartack could not find another gear, where Roman Brother and eventual winner Quadrangle could.
It was much the same two years later, when Kauai King, a Native Dancer colt under the savvy Don Brumfield, won the first two legs and was ready to become the first since Citation in '48 to win the Crown. Amberoid, however, had other plans that afternoon at Aqueduct, and we would have to wait a bit longer for another Triple Crown winner.
Racing aficionados still cringe at what might have been when the Belmont Stakes returned to the refurbished and rebuilt Belmont Park in 1968...an asterisk Triple Crown winner! That's because Calumet's Forward Pass had been "awarded" the Kentucky Derby win two days after finishing second in Louisville when Dancer's Image (another Native Dancer colt) had been disqualified after traces of bute were found in his post-race urine sample.
That controversy was one of the biggest in sports in a very controversial year. The bute, reportedly administered by legendary Churchill Downs track vet Dr. Alex Harthill the week before the race, should have flushed out of the Dancer's system in the intervening 152 hours (long before, in fact), but traces were found in the post-race sample. (Bute was legal at most North American tracks in '68, and had been legal the year before and year after in Kentucky, but not '68). Eventually, it took several trips through the courts before the fiasco was settled years later, and Forward Pass' name stayed in the record books as the "official" winner. Insiders have since told us that track officials were going to overlook the test and resultant controversy until Wathen Knebelkamp, then Churchill Downs' president, quickly went to the press with the news. The two weeks until the Preakness became quite a media circus, with Forward Pass now the winner (although it wouldn't become official for years and several trips to the courts).
As it was, the big, powerful Calumet charge went into Baltimore as the Derby winner, then romped home in the Preakness in Big Brown-like fashion, and the thought of the asterisk Triple Crown winner became very real. It was then off to Belmont Park, where the newly-refurbished, palatial facility welcomed back the Belmont Stakes that June 1. And for an awfully long time it looked like Forward Pass was in position to win, leading into mid-stretch, before local favorite Stage Door Johnny (right), under Heliodoro Gustines, found another gear and had just enough time to make a late charge, collaring Forward Pass in the last sixteenth and winning by less than a length. Racing enthusiasts sighed in relief, as there would indeed be no asterisk Triple Crown winner. But we still hadn't had a Crown winner since 1948.
Enter 1969, and that all seemed to change with Majestic Prince, under the irascible Hartack and trained by the legendary ex-jockey Johnny Longden (who won the Triple Crown in '43 with Count Fleet). Majestic Prince, for a time, was Secretariat before Secretariat. He was aptly-named and certainly looked the part of a Triple Crown winner, a big chestnut who prepped in California, and, undefeated, saw off the talented Arts & Letters in bruising Derby and Preakness stretch drives. This would be the one to win the Crown, or so many thought until Longden announced that he didn't want the Prince to run in the Belmont. He didn't like the way he came out of the Preakness, and thought the mile and a half was too much for the colt. Canadian owner Frank McMahon had other ideas, however; the Prince would run in New York.
But "The Pumper" proved prophetic. For a time, many blamed Hartack for the Prince's Belmont failure, allowing the pace to unfold snail-like
26 first quarter!) instead of dictating the pace in a race that was there for him to take on a silver platter. Instead, it set up perfectly for Arts & Letters, under Braulio Baeza, to win handily.
Longden was right; the Prince wasn't ready for the Belmont. He was injured in the race and never ran again. The Belmont had claimed another would-be Triple Crown winner.
Except for that brief patch in the mid '70s, far more Belmont Triple Crown failures than successes ensued in the next four decades. South American Canonero II was the rage after romping in the Derby and Preakness in 1971. But he came a cropper in the Belmont, failing to fire at the top of the stretch while a longshot named Pass Catcher ran away and eventually held off the charging Jim French at the wire. A classy Pleasant Colony looked the part of a Crown winner in 1981, but finished 3rd to Summing in his try at the Belmont. Alysheba took his stab in 1987, but was outrun by Bet Twice and two others in New York. And then there was Sunday Silence, who had an Affirmed-Alydar type duel going with Easy Goer in '89 after narrowly winning the first two legs of the Crown. Only Sunday Silence wasn't Affirmed-like in the Belmont, Easy Goer romping home.
The last seventeen years have seen seven horses fail to win the Belmont after clearing the first two Triple Crown hurdles. The great Silver Charm, owned by Bob & Bev Lewis and ridden by Gary Stevens, looked worthy-enough in '97, and, after finally putting away nemesis Free House in deep stretch in New York, looked like a Crown winner. Except that the wily Chris McCarron had wheeled Touch Gold on the far outside, out of Silver Charm's view, and slipped past the grey horse to win narrowly in the last 50 yards.
That was little drama compared to 1998, however, when Mike Pegram's Real Quiet, trained by Bob Baffert, after impressive wins vs. good fields at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, was suddenly three lengths clear mid-stretch at the Belmont, cruising home, seemingly, under a giddy Kent Desormeaux. Only that Stevens would get his Belmont revenge, thrown back in the saddle by a violent stretch charge from his mount, Victory Gallop, who nailed Real Quiet at the wire (right). It was as close as a horse could come to winning the Crown, and not getting it. Would we ever see another Crown winner, some had to wonder?
Forward to 1999, when another Lewis horse, Charismatic, looked ready to nail the Crown after winning the first two legs. The Belmont proved too much, however, and the valiant colt faded late, broke down, and lost to Lemon Drop Kid. More of the same frustration a few years later, as first War Emblem, looking every bit Smarty Jones-like in winning the Derby and Preakness in '02, failed badly at the Belmont, a distant 8th behind winner Sarava. In 2003, New York was a dither with home-state bred gelding Funny Cide on the cusp of the Triple Crown, looking awfully hard to beat, too, after his Preakness win. But Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted wore down Jose Santos' mount in the stretch.
Then, Smarty Jones appeared a near shoe-in the next year in '04, with his contingent of vocal supporters having made the short trip up I-95 from Philadelphia and the rest of the Delaware Valley to cheer him on. But Smarty Jones found that last eighth of a mile a furlong too far. Birdstone, with Edgar Prado up, collared Smarty in the stretch. Again, we would have to wait, and after Big Brown's failure in 2008, when he pulled up on the far turn and Da'Tara romped home, the drought between Triple Crown winners had reached an all-time dry patch. Indeed, after Funny Cide failed in 2003, we exceeded the gap of 25 years between Citation (in '48) and Secretariat. This year marks 36 since Affirmed fought off Alydar and last turned the trick.
A reminder of how difficult it really is to win the Triple Crown is how many other great horses have tried and failed at the Belmont. Rare is the year when everything goes right for a horse in the Triple Crown quest, as it did for Secretariat in '73. That year, Secretariat had no real serious, Arts & Letters, Alydar, or Easy Goer-like challengers. The tracks rolled their surfaces hard in hopes of record-breaking runs. And the weather came up good for Secretariat, too, unlike stable-mate Riva Ridge the previous year (whose Crown bid ended at a muddy Preakness vs. longshot Bee Bee Bee), or the great Damascus in '67, whose Derby was ruined by an off-track (and a loss to Proud Clarion).
Remember, a lot of big names have only won two legs of the crown, 48 of them, in fact, compared to just 11 who pulled the hat-trick and won all three. Besides Damascus and Riva Ridge, other equine notables like Native Dancer, Nashua, and even Man O'War (who didn't run in the Derby), and dozens of others, only won two legs of the Triple Crown.
But as California Chrome might discover on Long Island, the Belmont can be a tough hurdle for even the greatest horses to overcome.
Like Spectacular Bid.
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider
We'll be making the trek back to New York for the Belmont Stakes on June 7. After all, we've been there for the last three chances (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004, and Big Brown in 2008) horses have had at the Triple Crown. S2o we owe it to California Chrome to see if he can achieve what those three champions and countless others couldn't.
For us, the electricity at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line is like no other sporting event we have witnessed in person. And we've seen plenty, from Super Bowls to Rose Bowls and the Kentucky Derby.
And if they can call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, they can call the Belmont the most exciting two-and-a-half minutes in sports.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, where average race fans have almost no chance to show up on Derby Day at Churchill Downs and actually see the race, or Pimlico, where getting a view of the Preakness is almost impossible unless you can squeeze into the apron or get one of those hard-to-find seats in the grandstand, the Belmont really is a people's event. Anyone can attend, no reservations required (although they're suggested if you actually want a seat in the expansive grandstand).
Belmont's grand size has something to do with it. The big track can easily accommodate crowds over 100,000 without having to funnel fans into the infield (indeed, there is no infield seating, or standing, at Belmont). Moreover, when we say anyone can show up and see the race, we mean it; very affordable grandstand ticket sales the day of the race actually get patrons onto the apron, where if they can find a spot or otherwise crane their necks, they can watch the Belmont unfold right in front of their eyes. By spending a few more bucks, any fan can get into the Club House on Belmont Day and get a view closer to the finish line in a bit more comfy (but still crowded) surroundings. Showing up on race day for the Derby or Preakness might allow a fan to get on to the grounds, but not out to the apron to actually watch the race.
And though some have romanticized about the "infield experience" at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, we have long felt that spectacle is overrated; it often regresses into one more reminiscent of NASCAR events than a horse race, which is one reason Pimlico has stopped allowing patrons to being in their own beer for the Preakness. But we don't have to worry about that at Belmont, because the infield retains its dignity (meaning no patrons) at all times.
Moreover, transportation to the track is a snap via the Long Island Railroad; there's no reason to brave the Long Island Expressway with your car. Trains drop you off right at Belmont Park's own station, and plenty of extra trains are running from Penn Station on Belmont day. In the past, that's been the way to go on our trips up from Washington and Philadelphia; we'll just leave our car at the Metropark station off the Garden State Parkway, take an NJ Transit train into Manhattan, then switch to the LIRR at Penn Station. Convenient, somewhat comfortable, and without the sort of massive headaches associated with parking in Louisville for Derby Day, or in Baltimore for the Preakness, especially since there's no significant parking available at Pimlico even on a day without a big crowd.
Belmont Park, however, is almost palatial, a racing facility that wreaks of elegance and grandeur. When reconstruction was finished in 1968, Belmont Park became a real jewel in the horse racing world, and it still is today. It's also probably the last "mega-track" we'll see built in our lifetimes; facilities built since, such as the Texas tracks in Dallas-Fort Worth (Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie) and Houston (Sam Houston Park), have no use for such expansive grandstand seating. Indeed, the "new Belmont" (although even it is now 46 years old) will probably live on as the last great race track built in the States for a long, long time.
We remember plenty of exciting Belmonts where no Triple Crown was at stake, although we have to admit that there is something special about being out on Long Island when there's a chance a horse can complete the trick.
As mentioned before, We've been there for the last three tries (Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in '04, and Big Brown in 2008), and can say that the excitement and anticipation before those races exceeded that of any other sports events we've seen in person during our lifetime, including Super Bowls, Rose Bowls, and various other championship games.
The New York flavor permeates the track; we recall getting a kick out of seeing the Giants' Michael Strahan mingling with the masses on Smarty Jones' try at the Crown in 2004, and noticed how Jimmy Fallon was enjoying himself tremendously when hanging out with the crowd when Big Brown tried and failed to win the Triple Crown in 2008. And who couldn't notice Bo Derek (left) as she watched Big Brown in 2008, either. Other prominent New Yorkers make sure to be in attendance as well. In fact, we've been so enthralled by our Belmont experiences that when we are asked what are the top sports events someone should see in their lifetime, the Belmont, when a Triple Crown is at stake, now tops our list.
Indeed, the drama and allure of the Belmont is probably best exemplified not when the Secretariats and Seattle Slews and Affirmeds won the Triple Crown, but rather when all of the great horses have tried and failed. Follow along.
In the half-century that I've been following the sport, I've seen 19 horses try to win the Triple Crown. Only three of them, in a 5-year span in the mid '70s (Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, Affirmed in '78), turned the trick. Almost all of those who came into the Belmont looked a good bet to win, just as Big Brown did in 2008, the last time a Triple Crown was on the line at the Belmont.
Those favored horses from the past included Spectacular Bid.
Veteran racegoers all roll their eyes when the name Spectacular Bid (right) pops up. This was a magnificent thoroughbred. Ask a lot of knowledgeable railbirds about who was the better horse between the Bid and Secretariat, and you'd be surprised at how many would opt for the Bid.
But he couldn't win the Belmont.
The year was 1979, and for all the world it looked as if we were going to have back-to-back-to-back Triple Crown winners. Seattle Slew was unbeaten when he turned the trick two years earlier, and Affirmed had proven, if nothing else, that he was as gallant as any thoroughbred champ when he outdueled Alydar in all three legs the year before. Neither, however, looked like Spectacular Bid when winning the first two legs of Crown. The Bid, dominant at the Derby and Preakness, would go off at 1/5 in New York, shorter odds than those on Big Brown in 2008 or any of the other Triple Crown hopefuls in recent Belmonts.
The Bid was Dr. Fager-like good, one of those etched indelibly in the minds of any racing enthusiast who ever saw him run. And he looked like he would put the Belmont into his satchel, too, especially turning for home 30 years ago, leading the field. But that final eighth can be a bear, and the Bid, who, like any three-year-old at this stage had never had to run this mile-and-a-half distance, began to waver. Jockey Ronnie Franklin hit the accelerator a bit too soon on the Bid, down the backstretch, and even though he looked clear at the top of the stretch, Franklin had asked for too much, too soon. Suddenly, William Haggin Perry's colt, Coastal, rolled up on the outside, and, to the astonishment of the crowd, went past the Bid in the final sixteenth. Coastal won; the Bid faded to third.
Had there never been a horse named "Upset" to deal Man 'o War his only loss, we might have instead had the word "coastal" instead of "upset" referring to that surprise-defeat term. But indeed, Spectacular Bid had lost. And though trainer Bud Delp lamented at the time that the Bid had stepped on a pin that morning and hurt his foot, most racegoers chalked that down to sour grapes on Delp's part. In the Belmont, The Bid had looked very much like a champ for 1 1/4 miles, 1 3/8 miles, even 1 7/16...but not at a mile-and-a-half.
The pin didn't beat Spectacular Bid. The Belmont did.
Like it has for a lot of great horses over the past 40-odd years. It has now been 36 years since Steve Cauthen and Affirmed (left) fought off Alydar in the stretch to win the '78 Belmont and become the last Triple Crown winner, and when the late, great race caller Chic Anderson, in his last Belmont, told viewers that "We'll test these two to the wire!" But in that span (since 1964), as mentioned above, 19 horses have won the first two legs of the Crown. Sixteen of those, including some truly great runners, have failed. We can remember back to 1964, when the great Canadian champ, Northern Dancer, destined to become the sire of all sires, won the first two legs, seeing off the classy Hill Rise in a grueling Kentucky Derby, then winning more handily at the Preakness. On to the Belmont Stakes, which, for a short span between 1963-67, was run at nearby Aqueduct, while the Belmont facility was rebuilt. An odd sight it was, those Belmonts at Aqueduct, where the race started at the head of the far turn at that 1 1/8-mile oval. And Northern Dancer, under Bill Hartack, was looking awfully good for a mile and-a-quarter in that '64 Belmont, and seemed poised at the head of the stretch to add the final leg of the Crown to his collection. But Hartack could not find another gear, where Roman Brother and eventual winner Quadrangle could.
It was much the same two years later, when Kauai King, a Native Dancer colt under the savvy Don Brumfield, won the first two legs and was ready to become the first since Citation in '48 to win the Crown. Amberoid, however, had other plans that afternoon at Aqueduct, and we would have to wait a bit longer for another Triple Crown winner.
Racing aficionados still cringe at what might have been when the Belmont Stakes returned to the refurbished and rebuilt Belmont Park in 1968...an asterisk Triple Crown winner! That's because Calumet's Forward Pass had been "awarded" the Kentucky Derby win two days after finishing second in Louisville when Dancer's Image (another Native Dancer colt) had been disqualified after traces of bute were found in his post-race urine sample.
That controversy was one of the biggest in sports in a very controversial year. The bute, reportedly administered by legendary Churchill Downs track vet Dr. Alex Harthill the week before the race, should have flushed out of the Dancer's system in the intervening 152 hours (long before, in fact), but traces were found in the post-race sample. (Bute was legal at most North American tracks in '68, and had been legal the year before and year after in Kentucky, but not '68). Eventually, it took several trips through the courts before the fiasco was settled years later, and Forward Pass' name stayed in the record books as the "official" winner. Insiders have since told us that track officials were going to overlook the test and resultant controversy until Wathen Knebelkamp, then Churchill Downs' president, quickly went to the press with the news. The two weeks until the Preakness became quite a media circus, with Forward Pass now the winner (although it wouldn't become official for years and several trips to the courts).
As it was, the big, powerful Calumet charge went into Baltimore as the Derby winner, then romped home in the Preakness in Big Brown-like fashion, and the thought of the asterisk Triple Crown winner became very real. It was then off to Belmont Park, where the newly-refurbished, palatial facility welcomed back the Belmont Stakes that June 1. And for an awfully long time it looked like Forward Pass was in position to win, leading into mid-stretch, before local favorite Stage Door Johnny (right), under Heliodoro Gustines, found another gear and had just enough time to make a late charge, collaring Forward Pass in the last sixteenth and winning by less than a length. Racing enthusiasts sighed in relief, as there would indeed be no asterisk Triple Crown winner. But we still hadn't had a Crown winner since 1948.
Enter 1969, and that all seemed to change with Majestic Prince, under the irascible Hartack and trained by the legendary ex-jockey Johnny Longden (who won the Triple Crown in '43 with Count Fleet). Majestic Prince, for a time, was Secretariat before Secretariat. He was aptly-named and certainly looked the part of a Triple Crown winner, a big chestnut who prepped in California, and, undefeated, saw off the talented Arts & Letters in bruising Derby and Preakness stretch drives. This would be the one to win the Crown, or so many thought until Longden announced that he didn't want the Prince to run in the Belmont. He didn't like the way he came out of the Preakness, and thought the mile and a half was too much for the colt. Canadian owner Frank McMahon had other ideas, however; the Prince would run in New York.
But "The Pumper" proved prophetic. For a time, many blamed Hartack for the Prince's Belmont failure, allowing the pace to unfold snail-like
26 first quarter!) instead of dictating the pace in a race that was there for him to take on a silver platter. Instead, it set up perfectly for Arts & Letters, under Braulio Baeza, to win handily.Longden was right; the Prince wasn't ready for the Belmont. He was injured in the race and never ran again. The Belmont had claimed another would-be Triple Crown winner.
Except for that brief patch in the mid '70s, far more Belmont Triple Crown failures than successes ensued in the next four decades. South American Canonero II was the rage after romping in the Derby and Preakness in 1971. But he came a cropper in the Belmont, failing to fire at the top of the stretch while a longshot named Pass Catcher ran away and eventually held off the charging Jim French at the wire. A classy Pleasant Colony looked the part of a Crown winner in 1981, but finished 3rd to Summing in his try at the Belmont. Alysheba took his stab in 1987, but was outrun by Bet Twice and two others in New York. And then there was Sunday Silence, who had an Affirmed-Alydar type duel going with Easy Goer in '89 after narrowly winning the first two legs of the Crown. Only Sunday Silence wasn't Affirmed-like in the Belmont, Easy Goer romping home.
The last seventeen years have seen seven horses fail to win the Belmont after clearing the first two Triple Crown hurdles. The great Silver Charm, owned by Bob & Bev Lewis and ridden by Gary Stevens, looked worthy-enough in '97, and, after finally putting away nemesis Free House in deep stretch in New York, looked like a Crown winner. Except that the wily Chris McCarron had wheeled Touch Gold on the far outside, out of Silver Charm's view, and slipped past the grey horse to win narrowly in the last 50 yards.
That was little drama compared to 1998, however, when Mike Pegram's Real Quiet, trained by Bob Baffert, after impressive wins vs. good fields at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, was suddenly three lengths clear mid-stretch at the Belmont, cruising home, seemingly, under a giddy Kent Desormeaux. Only that Stevens would get his Belmont revenge, thrown back in the saddle by a violent stretch charge from his mount, Victory Gallop, who nailed Real Quiet at the wire (right). It was as close as a horse could come to winning the Crown, and not getting it. Would we ever see another Crown winner, some had to wonder?
Forward to 1999, when another Lewis horse, Charismatic, looked ready to nail the Crown after winning the first two legs. The Belmont proved too much, however, and the valiant colt faded late, broke down, and lost to Lemon Drop Kid. More of the same frustration a few years later, as first War Emblem, looking every bit Smarty Jones-like in winning the Derby and Preakness in '02, failed badly at the Belmont, a distant 8th behind winner Sarava. In 2003, New York was a dither with home-state bred gelding Funny Cide on the cusp of the Triple Crown, looking awfully hard to beat, too, after his Preakness win. But Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted wore down Jose Santos' mount in the stretch.
Then, Smarty Jones appeared a near shoe-in the next year in '04, with his contingent of vocal supporters having made the short trip up I-95 from Philadelphia and the rest of the Delaware Valley to cheer him on. But Smarty Jones found that last eighth of a mile a furlong too far. Birdstone, with Edgar Prado up, collared Smarty in the stretch. Again, we would have to wait, and after Big Brown's failure in 2008, when he pulled up on the far turn and Da'Tara romped home, the drought between Triple Crown winners had reached an all-time dry patch. Indeed, after Funny Cide failed in 2003, we exceeded the gap of 25 years between Citation (in '48) and Secretariat. This year marks 36 since Affirmed fought off Alydar and last turned the trick.
A reminder of how difficult it really is to win the Triple Crown is how many other great horses have tried and failed at the Belmont. Rare is the year when everything goes right for a horse in the Triple Crown quest, as it did for Secretariat in '73. That year, Secretariat had no real serious, Arts & Letters, Alydar, or Easy Goer-like challengers. The tracks rolled their surfaces hard in hopes of record-breaking runs. And the weather came up good for Secretariat, too, unlike stable-mate Riva Ridge the previous year (whose Crown bid ended at a muddy Preakness vs. longshot Bee Bee Bee), or the great Damascus in '67, whose Derby was ruined by an off-track (and a loss to Proud Clarion).
Remember, a lot of big names have only won two legs of the crown, 48 of them, in fact, compared to just 11 who pulled the hat-trick and won all three. Besides Damascus and Riva Ridge, other equine notables like Native Dancer, Nashua, and even Man O'War (who didn't run in the Derby), and dozens of others, only won two legs of the Triple Crown.
But as California Chrome might discover on Long Island, the Belmont can be a tough hurdle for even the greatest horses to overcome.
Like Spectacular Bid.
Fading California Chrome
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
If you’ve come here looking for another feel-good story about California Chrome and his quest to become the 12th Triple Crown champion as the racing world counts the hours down to Belmont Stakes 146 you’ve come to the wrong place.
If tales about how his mare cost $8,000 and $2,500 to breed to his sire, Lucky Pulpit, bring a tear to your eye or make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, this story isn’t for you.
If you’re rooting for his salt-of-the-earth owners who keep going to their day jobs, his jockey Victor Espinoza who’s getting a second shot at the Triple Crown or his 77 year-old trainer Art Sherman, who we all know by now, rode the train with Swaps to Kentucky for his Derby score as his exercise rider over 50 years ago, you may want to stop reading now.
You see, we’re not California Chrome fans in these parts. I don’t buy into him saving the sport with a Triple Crown win. We have plenty of problems and there are plenty of solutions but he’s not one of them. In fact, he’s served his purpose. He’s gotten the sport some mainstream attention, like the connections throwing out the first pitch at a Yankees game and Espinoza going on the Late Show with David Letterman. That’s all that’s really needed – the build-up and anticipation. Get people talking and get them into Belmont Park on the big day.
If you’re still with me, I’m here to tell you why California Chrome WILL NOT win the Belmont Stakes this Saturday. And I’m going to lay it out the same way I did when I told you Big Brown wouldn’t win back in 2008. So put down the California Chrome Kool Aid, if you’re one of those partaking, and listen up.
THE PACE SCENARIO – Unlike in the Derby and Preakness where there was an abundance of early speed on paper and enough on the track for him to stalk perfectly, I think he’s going to be on the chase of General a Rod in the Belmont. Or, even worse, he may find himself on the front end, protecting his post 2 draw and hoping the old “you can’t get in trouble on the lead” adage rings true for just 12 more furlongs. Either way, it appears to me that he’s finally going to have to do some of the heavy lifting on Saturday.
VICTOR ESPINOZA – Last time I checked, Espinoza wasn’t one of the most revered or reliable riders in the country. In fact, he’s been on a downward trend the past few years on the national level and isn’t a guy that’s even on my radar. And the last time he was in this position, he completely panicked and dropped the ball after breaking poorly. Many will say I’m being harsh considering how bad War Emblem broke in the 2002 Belmont Stakes but I don’t think I am. You break poorly, you deal with it. You have 12 furlongs to figure it out!!! His ride was abysmal. Who knows how he’ll react if he faces some adversity again.
THE DISTANCE – Saying this horse is modestly bred is an insult to modestly bred horses nationwide. You’ll hear some people talk about going back in his pedigree and finding plenty of stamina, but that’s usually the case with every horse. The pedigree game can get tricky like that. It’s like when the ancients did a rain dance. The only reason the rain dances worked is because they danced until it rained. Go far enough back and you’ll justify this horse getting the distance.
Perhaps a bigger problem in this department is the fact that a few in here have excellent distance pedigrees. Commissioner’s sire and both grandsires won the Belmont Stakes, an insanely remarkable point. Tonalist has a ton of distance pedigree on his female side. Wicked Strong looks like a horse that wants to run all day. Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, second in the Derby and Preakness, respectively, were both running at him at the end of those races.
TRENDS - It took well over 100 years for it to happen, but when Commendable upset the 2000 Belmont he became the first horse ever to win having last raced in the Derby. Since 2000, it’s happened six more times. Commanding Curve, Samraat, Wicked Strong and Medal Count all fall under that category this year.
Since 1996 only two horses that have won the Derby and/or Preakness have come back to win the Belmont. They are a pair of Preakness winners, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005.
No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven rivals in the final jewel. Both Citation in 1948 and Seattle Slew in 1977 accomplished the feat. 10 challengers are set to face California Chrome.
Finally, each and every Triple Crown winner has had a race over the course prior to the Belmont.
EAST COAST BIAS – Forget about the fact that no horse based on the West Coast has ever won the Triple Crown. Rather than that, focus on the fact that this horse hasn’t been in his own stall at Los Alamitos in over a month. He’s called three places home in that time and has to up and move just as he’s settling in. Imagine a sports team being on the road for five weeks. Would you like their chances? Meanwhile, Commissioner, Matterhorn, Wicked Strong, Matuszak and Tonalist get to make the walkover from their home base while Samraat has just a short van ride over from Aqueduct.
MURPHY’S LAW – I dare you to find me a racing expert that can show you a horse attempting to win the Triple Crown that has had more perfect trips on the Derby Trail and in the first two Triple Crown races than this horse. At some point, the luck has to run out. California Chrome has a penchant for getting antsy and rocking back and forth in the gate. If that gate opens while he’s rocking backwards on Saturday, he’s done.
KARMA – Trainer Art Sherman started this, saying he’s not superstitious but that he brought his lucky suit with him for the Belmont, the same one he wore to the Derby and the Preakness. So I wasn’t going to evoke the images of the Racing Gods but he’s given me license to with the suit. The horse runs around the racetrack with a jockey on his back that’s wearing purple silks with a green jackass on his back and a “DAP” path on the front that stands for Dumb Ass Partners. Does anyone really think those silks should hang in the Kentucky Derby Museum at Churchill Downs next to the blue and red of Calumet Farms, the pink, white and black of Harbor View Farms or the white and blue checkered silks of Meadow Stables? If they are out there, that Kool Aid must be REALLY strong.
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
If you’ve come here looking for another feel-good story about California Chrome and his quest to become the 12th Triple Crown champion as the racing world counts the hours down to Belmont Stakes 146 you’ve come to the wrong place.
If tales about how his mare cost $8,000 and $2,500 to breed to his sire, Lucky Pulpit, bring a tear to your eye or make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, this story isn’t for you.
If you’re rooting for his salt-of-the-earth owners who keep going to their day jobs, his jockey Victor Espinoza who’s getting a second shot at the Triple Crown or his 77 year-old trainer Art Sherman, who we all know by now, rode the train with Swaps to Kentucky for his Derby score as his exercise rider over 50 years ago, you may want to stop reading now.
You see, we’re not California Chrome fans in these parts. I don’t buy into him saving the sport with a Triple Crown win. We have plenty of problems and there are plenty of solutions but he’s not one of them. In fact, he’s served his purpose. He’s gotten the sport some mainstream attention, like the connections throwing out the first pitch at a Yankees game and Espinoza going on the Late Show with David Letterman. That’s all that’s really needed – the build-up and anticipation. Get people talking and get them into Belmont Park on the big day.
If you’re still with me, I’m here to tell you why California Chrome WILL NOT win the Belmont Stakes this Saturday. And I’m going to lay it out the same way I did when I told you Big Brown wouldn’t win back in 2008. So put down the California Chrome Kool Aid, if you’re one of those partaking, and listen up.
THE PACE SCENARIO – Unlike in the Derby and Preakness where there was an abundance of early speed on paper and enough on the track for him to stalk perfectly, I think he’s going to be on the chase of General a Rod in the Belmont. Or, even worse, he may find himself on the front end, protecting his post 2 draw and hoping the old “you can’t get in trouble on the lead” adage rings true for just 12 more furlongs. Either way, it appears to me that he’s finally going to have to do some of the heavy lifting on Saturday.
VICTOR ESPINOZA – Last time I checked, Espinoza wasn’t one of the most revered or reliable riders in the country. In fact, he’s been on a downward trend the past few years on the national level and isn’t a guy that’s even on my radar. And the last time he was in this position, he completely panicked and dropped the ball after breaking poorly. Many will say I’m being harsh considering how bad War Emblem broke in the 2002 Belmont Stakes but I don’t think I am. You break poorly, you deal with it. You have 12 furlongs to figure it out!!! His ride was abysmal. Who knows how he’ll react if he faces some adversity again.
THE DISTANCE – Saying this horse is modestly bred is an insult to modestly bred horses nationwide. You’ll hear some people talk about going back in his pedigree and finding plenty of stamina, but that’s usually the case with every horse. The pedigree game can get tricky like that. It’s like when the ancients did a rain dance. The only reason the rain dances worked is because they danced until it rained. Go far enough back and you’ll justify this horse getting the distance.
Perhaps a bigger problem in this department is the fact that a few in here have excellent distance pedigrees. Commissioner’s sire and both grandsires won the Belmont Stakes, an insanely remarkable point. Tonalist has a ton of distance pedigree on his female side. Wicked Strong looks like a horse that wants to run all day. Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, second in the Derby and Preakness, respectively, were both running at him at the end of those races.
TRENDS - It took well over 100 years for it to happen, but when Commendable upset the 2000 Belmont he became the first horse ever to win having last raced in the Derby. Since 2000, it’s happened six more times. Commanding Curve, Samraat, Wicked Strong and Medal Count all fall under that category this year.
Since 1996 only two horses that have won the Derby and/or Preakness have come back to win the Belmont. They are a pair of Preakness winners, Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005.
No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven rivals in the final jewel. Both Citation in 1948 and Seattle Slew in 1977 accomplished the feat. 10 challengers are set to face California Chrome.
Finally, each and every Triple Crown winner has had a race over the course prior to the Belmont.
EAST COAST BIAS – Forget about the fact that no horse based on the West Coast has ever won the Triple Crown. Rather than that, focus on the fact that this horse hasn’t been in his own stall at Los Alamitos in over a month. He’s called three places home in that time and has to up and move just as he’s settling in. Imagine a sports team being on the road for five weeks. Would you like their chances? Meanwhile, Commissioner, Matterhorn, Wicked Strong, Matuszak and Tonalist get to make the walkover from their home base while Samraat has just a short van ride over from Aqueduct.
MURPHY’S LAW – I dare you to find me a racing expert that can show you a horse attempting to win the Triple Crown that has had more perfect trips on the Derby Trail and in the first two Triple Crown races than this horse. At some point, the luck has to run out. California Chrome has a penchant for getting antsy and rocking back and forth in the gate. If that gate opens while he’s rocking backwards on Saturday, he’s done.
KARMA – Trainer Art Sherman started this, saying he’s not superstitious but that he brought his lucky suit with him for the Belmont, the same one he wore to the Derby and the Preakness. So I wasn’t going to evoke the images of the Racing Gods but he’s given me license to with the suit. The horse runs around the racetrack with a jockey on his back that’s wearing purple silks with a green jackass on his back and a “DAP” path on the front that stands for Dumb Ass Partners. Does anyone really think those silks should hang in the Kentucky Derby Museum at Churchill Downs next to the blue and red of Calumet Farms, the pink, white and black of Harbor View Farms or the white and blue checkered silks of Meadow Stables? If they are out there, that Kool Aid must be REALLY strong.
Horse-By-Horse Belmont Breakdown
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews
Even if California Chrome wasn’t in range of the 12th Triple Crown in American horse racing history, the 2014 Belmont Stakes (post time 6:52 p.m. ET, NBC) would still be a compelling betting race. A competitive field has been assembled, with other well-regarded three-year-old colts, including Wicked Strong and Tonalist, set to take on California Chrome.
However, there’s no doubting the appeal of California Chrome’s Triple Crown chase. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont in succession since Affirmed pulled it off in 1978.
Here is where one could opine about horse racing needing a Triple Crown winner, that it could be a tonic for a sport that has some real short- and long-term concerns.
But for now, let’s focus on the matter of the race itself. Here is a primer on the 11 entrants for the Belmont Stakes. Runners are listed in order of the numbers they will sport and the post positions from which they will start on Saturday, not their morning-line odds or their predicted order of finish:
No. 1: Medal Count (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Assessment: Finished eighth, beaten 7.5 lengths, in the Kentucky Derby, but he endured significant trouble in the stretch, as eventual third-place finisher Danza came over and bumped him just outside the eighth pole. Medal Count’s sire, Dynaformer, is considered an excellent producer of stayers. The bad news? Medal Count has yet to win a race of significance on dirt.
No. 2: California Chrome (Morning-line odds: 3-to-5)
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Assessment: If Espinoza chooses, he could find himself on the lead; no horse is more likely to assert himself right out of the gate than the naturally-quick California Chrome. Despite the distance, taking the early initiative in the Belmont often leads to victories. Per ESPN, the last four horses to have completed the Triple Crown sweep led this race gate-to-wire, and 92 percent of Belmont winners since 1952 were first or second at the top of the stretch. Espinoza — who came to Belmont early and has three other mounts Saturday — could simply take back and sit right off the lead. He has the best horse, and he has plenty of time to plot his desired course. One last thing: California Chrome is very likely to be less than even-money at post time, as there will be many tickets purchased simply for souvenir value.
No. 3: Matterhorn (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Won 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, 2013 Belmont with Palace Malice)
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Assessment: Finished fourth in the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 10, a race won by Tonalist. Matterhorn, who has not won since breaking his maiden in November, will try to churn his way into contention late.
No. 4: Commanding Curve (Morning-line odds: 15-to-1)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Assessment: Was the best of the late-runners in the Kentucky Derby, finishing second to California Chrome in a career-best performance. His Belmont chances are tied to the pace. If someone can keep California Chrome honest early, perhaps Commanding Curve can get a little closer to poking his nose in front this time.
No. 5: Ride On Curlin (Morning-line odds: 10-to-1)
Trainer: William Gowan.
Jockey: John Velazquez (Won 2007 Belmont on Rags to Riches, 2012 Belmont on Union Rags).
Assessment: Was second best in the Preakness behind California Chrome, losing by just 1.5 lengths in the strongest race of his life. However, he had much of the stretch to run down California Chrome, and he couldn’t do it. Ride On Curlin has been a closer in the Triple Crown races, but he’s also shown a good deal of speed in other races. The suspicion is Ride On Curlin lays mid-pack and tries to run on from there. Velazquez knows Belmont well and gave Union Rags a wonderful ride to win this race two years ago.
No. 6: Matuszak (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott (Won 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (Won 2010 Belmont on Drosselmeyer)
Assessment: Matuszak is 0-for-7 since winning his debut at Churchill Downs in September, with four losses in stakes races. He’s well-bred for the distance, and the Mott-Smith connection is hardly a bad one to have on your side in a big race. But this is a stern test.
No. 7: Samraat (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Rick Violette, Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Assessment: Turned in a decent effort in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth when staying closer to the pace than he had in any of his other races beyond a mile. If he relaxes and doesn’t expend too much early energy, he could be competitive.
No. 8: Commissioner (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Won 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, 2013 Belmont with Palace Malice)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Assessment: He’s certainly bred for the distance; his sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1992 Belmont, while his dam sire, Touch Gold, won the 1998 Belmont. What’s more, Commissioner was a solid second in the Peter Pan. However, he has never won in stakes company.
No. 9: Wicked Strong (Morning-line odds: 6-to-1)
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Assessment: Wicked Strong appears to be one of the primary threats to California Chrome. Like Samraat and Tonalist, Wicked Strong has a win at Belmont to his credit, and the track, with its long, wide turns, plays to his strengths. The Belmont Stakes distance could also play in his favor, too — he’s a grinder with build-up speed. Nevertheless, Wicked Strong was beaten more than five lengths by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby, so he has some ground to make up on the king of the three-year-old colts.
No. 10: General a Rod (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Assessment: Had an awful trip in the Preakness, losing all momentum and all chance when a competitor started to tire in his path. However, General a Rod still showed a willingness to run after his trouble, finishing fourth, eight lengths behind the winner. General a Rod’s sire, Roman Ruler, was the sire of 2011 Belmont winner Ruler On Ice. The problem is, General a Rod hasn’t really threatened California Chrome in the two Triple Crown races.
No. 11: Tonalist (Morning-line odds: 8-to-1)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Assessment: If California Chrome isn’t leading when the horses hit the backstretch, Tonalist might well be in front. Both of this colt’s wins have been at a mile-and-an-eighth, and both wins were by multiple lengths, perhaps suggesting a little more ground to cover might be something he can handle. Impressed in the Peter Pan, showing more early speed than before while still having the late energy to draw off for a four-length win on a sloppy track.
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews
Even if California Chrome wasn’t in range of the 12th Triple Crown in American horse racing history, the 2014 Belmont Stakes (post time 6:52 p.m. ET, NBC) would still be a compelling betting race. A competitive field has been assembled, with other well-regarded three-year-old colts, including Wicked Strong and Tonalist, set to take on California Chrome.
However, there’s no doubting the appeal of California Chrome’s Triple Crown chase. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont in succession since Affirmed pulled it off in 1978.
Here is where one could opine about horse racing needing a Triple Crown winner, that it could be a tonic for a sport that has some real short- and long-term concerns.
But for now, let’s focus on the matter of the race itself. Here is a primer on the 11 entrants for the Belmont Stakes. Runners are listed in order of the numbers they will sport and the post positions from which they will start on Saturday, not their morning-line odds or their predicted order of finish:
No. 1: Medal Count (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Assessment: Finished eighth, beaten 7.5 lengths, in the Kentucky Derby, but he endured significant trouble in the stretch, as eventual third-place finisher Danza came over and bumped him just outside the eighth pole. Medal Count’s sire, Dynaformer, is considered an excellent producer of stayers. The bad news? Medal Count has yet to win a race of significance on dirt.
No. 2: California Chrome (Morning-line odds: 3-to-5)
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Assessment: If Espinoza chooses, he could find himself on the lead; no horse is more likely to assert himself right out of the gate than the naturally-quick California Chrome. Despite the distance, taking the early initiative in the Belmont often leads to victories. Per ESPN, the last four horses to have completed the Triple Crown sweep led this race gate-to-wire, and 92 percent of Belmont winners since 1952 were first or second at the top of the stretch. Espinoza — who came to Belmont early and has three other mounts Saturday — could simply take back and sit right off the lead. He has the best horse, and he has plenty of time to plot his desired course. One last thing: California Chrome is very likely to be less than even-money at post time, as there will be many tickets purchased simply for souvenir value.
No. 3: Matterhorn (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Won 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, 2013 Belmont with Palace Malice)
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Assessment: Finished fourth in the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 10, a race won by Tonalist. Matterhorn, who has not won since breaking his maiden in November, will try to churn his way into contention late.
No. 4: Commanding Curve (Morning-line odds: 15-to-1)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Assessment: Was the best of the late-runners in the Kentucky Derby, finishing second to California Chrome in a career-best performance. His Belmont chances are tied to the pace. If someone can keep California Chrome honest early, perhaps Commanding Curve can get a little closer to poking his nose in front this time.
No. 5: Ride On Curlin (Morning-line odds: 10-to-1)
Trainer: William Gowan.
Jockey: John Velazquez (Won 2007 Belmont on Rags to Riches, 2012 Belmont on Union Rags).
Assessment: Was second best in the Preakness behind California Chrome, losing by just 1.5 lengths in the strongest race of his life. However, he had much of the stretch to run down California Chrome, and he couldn’t do it. Ride On Curlin has been a closer in the Triple Crown races, but he’s also shown a good deal of speed in other races. The suspicion is Ride On Curlin lays mid-pack and tries to run on from there. Velazquez knows Belmont well and gave Union Rags a wonderful ride to win this race two years ago.
No. 6: Matuszak (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott (Won 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer)
Jockey: Mike Smith (Won 2010 Belmont on Drosselmeyer)
Assessment: Matuszak is 0-for-7 since winning his debut at Churchill Downs in September, with four losses in stakes races. He’s well-bred for the distance, and the Mott-Smith connection is hardly a bad one to have on your side in a big race. But this is a stern test.
No. 7: Samraat (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Rick Violette, Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Assessment: Turned in a decent effort in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth when staying closer to the pace than he had in any of his other races beyond a mile. If he relaxes and doesn’t expend too much early energy, he could be competitive.
No. 8: Commissioner (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Won 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, 2013 Belmont with Palace Malice)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Assessment: He’s certainly bred for the distance; his sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1992 Belmont, while his dam sire, Touch Gold, won the 1998 Belmont. What’s more, Commissioner was a solid second in the Peter Pan. However, he has never won in stakes company.
No. 9: Wicked Strong (Morning-line odds: 6-to-1)
Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Assessment: Wicked Strong appears to be one of the primary threats to California Chrome. Like Samraat and Tonalist, Wicked Strong has a win at Belmont to his credit, and the track, with its long, wide turns, plays to his strengths. The Belmont Stakes distance could also play in his favor, too — he’s a grinder with build-up speed. Nevertheless, Wicked Strong was beaten more than five lengths by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby, so he has some ground to make up on the king of the three-year-old colts.
No. 10: General a Rod (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)
Trainer: Michael Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Assessment: Had an awful trip in the Preakness, losing all momentum and all chance when a competitor started to tire in his path. However, General a Rod still showed a willingness to run after his trouble, finishing fourth, eight lengths behind the winner. General a Rod’s sire, Roman Ruler, was the sire of 2011 Belmont winner Ruler On Ice. The problem is, General a Rod hasn’t really threatened California Chrome in the two Triple Crown races.
No. 11: Tonalist (Morning-line odds: 8-to-1)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Assessment: If California Chrome isn’t leading when the horses hit the backstretch, Tonalist might well be in front. Both of this colt’s wins have been at a mile-and-an-eighth, and both wins were by multiple lengths, perhaps suggesting a little more ground to cover might be something he can handle. Impressed in the Peter Pan, showing more early speed than before while still having the late energy to draw off for a four-length win on a sloppy track.
California Chrome’s Triple Crown run a boom for Belmont bets
By JASON LOGAN
California Chrome’s push for the Triple Crown is not only good for those putting on the Belmont Stakes but also for race books expecting increased action on Saturday’s “The Test of the Champion”.
The Belmont, the third and final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, is expected to draw between 30 to 50 percent more betting handle than usual, with casual racing fans looking to place a wager on what could be history in the making.
“It will be standing room only in here Saturday,” Jeff Stoneback, sports and race book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “Every year we’re rooting for some horse to hit the first two legs (of the Triple Crown). And this year seems a lot more popular than in the past, perhaps because of the horse’s storybook background.”
California Chrome dominated at the Kentucky Derby at 5/2 odds and followed that with a victory at the Preakness Stakes, priced as a 3/5 favorite. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
When no Triple Crown hopeful sits in the gates at the Belmont, the race is often the least bet of the three Triple Crown events, with books comparing the handle to “a good Saturday”. But this year, racing markets expect even the most novice bettors to get a piece of California Chrome – if only to say they bet the Triple Crown winner.
“I would say the majority of (bettors) will take California Chrome because they want to see a Triple Crown winner,” says Stoneback, who has not yet opened odds on Saturday’s race. “We’ll have more than a couple people place $2 bets just to say they did and have a ticket as a souvenir. Maybe it will be worth money some day. It will probably be worth more than the $3.60 payout at the track.”
While Belmont odds are on hold in Las Vegas, online shops have posted odds on Saturday’s race for a while. According to Michael Stewart, of CarbonSports.ag, California Chrome (Even) is already drawing the lion’s share of the money but action on the underdogs could show up closer to post, with lines expect to jump around this weekend.
“We expect to see the majority of the money come in on the favorite California Chrome, and right now we are already seeing 42 percent of the action on California Chrome,” says Stewart. “Now that could change as we lead up to the race.”
Ride On Curlin (+500), Tonalist (+800), Commanding Curve (+800), and Wicked Strong (+800) are the four horses behind California Chrome on the board – all offering sizable payouts in a race known for long shot winners. Four of the previous six Belmont champions have had odds of at least 13/1.
Regardless of the result, the 2014 Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be one of the biggest races of the year for books and bettors.
“The action on the Belmont will be right up there with the Kentucky Derby, most likely exceeding it with California Chrome running for a chance at the Triple Crown,” says Stewart.
By JASON LOGAN
California Chrome’s push for the Triple Crown is not only good for those putting on the Belmont Stakes but also for race books expecting increased action on Saturday’s “The Test of the Champion”.
The Belmont, the third and final leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, is expected to draw between 30 to 50 percent more betting handle than usual, with casual racing fans looking to place a wager on what could be history in the making.
“It will be standing room only in here Saturday,” Jeff Stoneback, sports and race book manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “Every year we’re rooting for some horse to hit the first two legs (of the Triple Crown). And this year seems a lot more popular than in the past, perhaps because of the horse’s storybook background.”
California Chrome dominated at the Kentucky Derby at 5/2 odds and followed that with a victory at the Preakness Stakes, priced as a 3/5 favorite. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
When no Triple Crown hopeful sits in the gates at the Belmont, the race is often the least bet of the three Triple Crown events, with books comparing the handle to “a good Saturday”. But this year, racing markets expect even the most novice bettors to get a piece of California Chrome – if only to say they bet the Triple Crown winner.
“I would say the majority of (bettors) will take California Chrome because they want to see a Triple Crown winner,” says Stoneback, who has not yet opened odds on Saturday’s race. “We’ll have more than a couple people place $2 bets just to say they did and have a ticket as a souvenir. Maybe it will be worth money some day. It will probably be worth more than the $3.60 payout at the track.”
While Belmont odds are on hold in Las Vegas, online shops have posted odds on Saturday’s race for a while. According to Michael Stewart, of CarbonSports.ag, California Chrome (Even) is already drawing the lion’s share of the money but action on the underdogs could show up closer to post, with lines expect to jump around this weekend.
“We expect to see the majority of the money come in on the favorite California Chrome, and right now we are already seeing 42 percent of the action on California Chrome,” says Stewart. “Now that could change as we lead up to the race.”
Ride On Curlin (+500), Tonalist (+800), Commanding Curve (+800), and Wicked Strong (+800) are the four horses behind California Chrome on the board – all offering sizable payouts in a race known for long shot winners. Four of the previous six Belmont champions have had odds of at least 13/1.
Regardless of the result, the 2014 Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be one of the biggest races of the year for books and bettors.
“The action on the Belmont will be right up there with the Kentucky Derby, most likely exceeding it with California Chrome running for a chance at the Triple Crown,” says Stewart.
Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
The final leg of the "Triple Crown" takes place this Saturday as California Chrome will look to capture the 2014 Belmont Stakes and become the 12th horse to capture the Triple Crown. Anthony Stabile breaks down all 11 runners for the Belmont.
1 Medal Count 20/1 Robby Albarado (0-4) Dale Romans (0-4)
Romans waited until late last week to announce that this colt was running but I think a lot of people, including myself, think he was just looking for attention and to make a splash and figured this horse would be a part of the field. He’s just one for four on conventional dirt and that win came in an off the turf maiden race in his debut at Ellis Park. He’s much better on turf and synthetics and though he has some bright spots in his pedigree for this distance I think he’s a cut below these, maybe more.
2 California Chrome 3/5 Victor Espinoza (0-3) Art Sherman (Debut)
12 is the magic number that surrounds this colt when it comes to his date with destiny this Saturday. Will we have 12 Triple Crown winners when the sun sets Saturday night? Will he be number 12 to fail in their attempt to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978? Will the 12 furlongs be his undoing? As it has been for the past 36 years, that final question is the most important one. So many of the 11 had the lead at the quarter pole, the point where the Kentucky Derby ends. But that last quarter of a mile…….1,320 of the most important feet of his life. It’s there where the men are separated from the boys. Everything, and I mean everything, has gone perfectly for the past two months for this guy. Nothing and no horse have been able to stop him. But the worm may have turned a bit at the draw. He gets stuck in post 2 and Social Inclusion opts to run on the undercard and not in here. There really isn’t any clear cut speed in here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself on the lead. Maybe for once, he’ll be forced to do some heavy lifting, especially in the early going. I think there is a horse that can stop him in here but ultimately I think it will be the added distance. The Triple Crown will go unclaimed for another year. As for wagering purposes, I’ll be using him on the bottom end of my gimmicks but not on top.
3 Matterhorn 30/1 Joe Bravo (0 for 2) Todd Pletcher (2-16)
He was recently sold to the connections of third place Kentucky Derby finisher Danza so it’s almost like he’s pinch hitting. They even put Bravo on him, Danza’s jockey. He’s eligible for an entry level allowance contest but it’s the Belmont Stakes. You might as well be ambitious and hope he wants that added distance. If he doesn’t, that allowance race will be waiting for him at the end of the month. Pletcher won this in 2007 with the fantastic filly Rags to Riches and last year with Palace Malice. He’s looking to become the first trainer to win consecutive Belmonts since his old boss D. Wayne Lukas did it three years in a row from 1994 to 1996. With all of that said, I don’t like him for a penny.
4 Commanding Curve 15/1 Shaun Bridgmohan (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-3)
He’s one of the more popular answers to “If you don’t like California Chrome then who do you like?” A hard charging second in the Derby he has trained brilliantly the past five weeks. He’s fresh and it certainly it appears like he’s going to love the distance. But here is the problem with horses like him, deep closers: they don’t win the Belmont Stakes!! I know common sense dictates that if they come running at the end of a 1¼ mile race they’ll surely appreciate the extra quarter of a mile but there is very little place for common sense when it comes to horse racing. Can he get a piece of the pie? Absolutely. Can he win? Well, he would need the race to completely fall into his lap. I’ll use him on the bottom of my gimmicks but not on top.
5 Ride On Curlin 12/1 John Velazquez (2-17) Billy Gowan (Debut)
After a magical mystery tour courtesy of Calvin Borel in the Derby, things went a bit better in the Preakness, though Borel gave him the business early on aboard Ria Antonia, the main reason this guy was so far back. Despite the early annoyances, this colt came running on late and appeared to be a real threat to California Chrome turning for home. He, of course, never got to him but he should did put a bit of a scare into all of the Chromie Homie’s. His sire just missed in this in 2007 when he was beat by Rags to Riches, who was ridden by his new pilot Johnny V. Velazquez came back to win this again aboard Union Rags in 2012 and knows Belmont better than anyone. A lot of people say this is a riders’ race. If that’s the case, he may very well be in the best hands. I don’t think he’ll win but I would not be surprised if he did. Using him in all of my gimmicks.
6 Matuszak 30/1 Mike Smith (2 for 15) Bill Mott (1-5)
The team the brought you 2010 upset Belmont winner Drosselmeyer at 13-1 bring you an even bigger longshot here. Smith came back to win aboard Palace Malice last year and is looking to become the first jockey to win consecutive runnings of this since Laffit Pincay, Jr. did it three years in a row from 1982-1984. I’m the biggest Mott fan around and even I’m having trouble finding something good to say. He’s a plodder and I guess they’re hoping to grab a piece of it but I think it’s a stretch.
7 Samraat 20/1 Jose Ortiz (Debut) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)
Perhaps the New York-bred will stand up and defend his turf from the invading Californian looking for immortality. Hell, if things can go all Hollywood for the West Coast folks why not for the hometown hero? I know one thing, if this thing turns into a street fight on the far turn, this guy will be tough to get rid of. His biggest issue is getting to that point. I feel like he was one of a few in Louisville that didn’t have any trouble, he just didn’t fire in the lane. With the lack of speed in here, I’m also wondering if they revert to his old running style and put him in front. Too many question marks for me to endorse but I wouldn’t mind him getting some revenge for fellow New Yorker, Funny Cide.
8 Commissioner 20/1 Javier Castellano (0-7) Todd Pletcher (2-16)
As it is every year, the biggest question these horses all have to answer is whether they’ll handle the distance of “The Test of the Champion” or not. One thing is for sure….if this race was based on pedigree, it would be all over and they’d declare this guy the champ now. He’s by A.P. Indy, who was by Seattle Slew and out of a Touch Gold mare. All three of those horses won the Belmont!!! All three!!! You get Castellano and Pletcher, you’re defending Eclipse champs in the jockey and trainer and trainer categories, at a price that will likely be in the 20-1 range on a horse that Pletcher has given every opportunity to show he belongs. The talent is there, he just needs that proverbial late bulb to go off. I’m not willing to bet that it’ll happen Saturday but I will use him in my gimmicks and will tell you that if you’re one of these people that just like to play the longer shots, this is your guy.
9 Wicked Strong 6/1 Rajiv Maragh (0-3) Jimmy Jerkens (0-2)
In 2000, Commendable became the first horse EVER to win the Belmont having last raced in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, it’s happened six more times. This year, Medal Count, Commanding Curve, Samraat and this colt will try to bump that number up. And when you look closely, Wicked Strong may have the best chance of them all. After a huge win in the Wood Memorial, he stumbled at the start, found some traffic trouble early and was stuck behind a wall of horses late from post 20 in the Derby last out, yet still kept coming to finish fourth. It’s funny to me that no one has even mentioned that fact that he probably bounced a bit in the Derby, which would set him up perfectly for a career best effort she he take that step forward. He’s had five weeks to get ready for this from the comforts of his own stall over a track he loves for a trainer who comes from one of the greatest racing families the game has ever seen. When a guy named Jerkens leads a horse over to the paddock, especially going a distance of ground, you can be sure they’ll be fit. I think he’ll be right there at the finish. Using him in all of my wagers.
10 General a Rod 20/1 Rosie Napravnik (0-2) Mike Maker (0-1)
Another who was a little late coming to the party, I’m wondering if his connections sensed that there would be a lack of clear cut speed in here if Social Inclusion defected, like he did, and if that was something they could take advantage of. Look, plain and simply the lead is his if he wants it. California Chrome’s people would LOVE a target, I don’t think Samraat’s folks really want to put him on the engine and I don’t see any other true speed type in here. He didn’t have the cleanest trip in the Derby and was stopped cold in the Preakness behind the fast fading filly Ria Antonia and came running late to be fourth. He’d have been much closer with a better trip. Again, my biggest issue with him is the distance. I don’t think he can get it and think the only shot he has a chance at getting any kind of piece is by stealing it on the front end. I’m passing but he may wind up being the most important piece of the Belmont puzzle this year.
11 Tonalist 8/1 Joel Rosario (0-3) Christophe Clement (0-1)
His biggest claim to fame is his Peter Pan win over a suspect bunch over a sloppy track he’s bred to love. He dragged Rosario to the lead that day and pretty much improved at every point of call. He has just a maiden win from three other starts but was second to Constitution in the Gulfstream “allowance race to end all allowance races” back on the Fountain of Youth undercard. His PPs aren’t super-imposing by any means. But these eyes know the real deal when they see it and he’s the real deal. His rider seemed to think so considering he gave Clement a two race call for the Peter Pan AND Belmont having not been on his back in almost six months. Speaking of Clement, sure he’s better known as a trainer of turf horses but the one thing you surely need when training a turf is to build stamina. He’s a fantastic trainer, period, and he’s brimming with confidence. I love his outside draw because he can see how it all plays out inside of him and make a decision from there. I truly think he’s the one that stops history from happening. My pick to win the Belmont Stakes.
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
The final leg of the "Triple Crown" takes place this Saturday as California Chrome will look to capture the 2014 Belmont Stakes and become the 12th horse to capture the Triple Crown. Anthony Stabile breaks down all 11 runners for the Belmont.
1 Medal Count 20/1 Robby Albarado (0-4) Dale Romans (0-4)
Romans waited until late last week to announce that this colt was running but I think a lot of people, including myself, think he was just looking for attention and to make a splash and figured this horse would be a part of the field. He’s just one for four on conventional dirt and that win came in an off the turf maiden race in his debut at Ellis Park. He’s much better on turf and synthetics and though he has some bright spots in his pedigree for this distance I think he’s a cut below these, maybe more.
2 California Chrome 3/5 Victor Espinoza (0-3) Art Sherman (Debut)
12 is the magic number that surrounds this colt when it comes to his date with destiny this Saturday. Will we have 12 Triple Crown winners when the sun sets Saturday night? Will he be number 12 to fail in their attempt to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978? Will the 12 furlongs be his undoing? As it has been for the past 36 years, that final question is the most important one. So many of the 11 had the lead at the quarter pole, the point where the Kentucky Derby ends. But that last quarter of a mile…….1,320 of the most important feet of his life. It’s there where the men are separated from the boys. Everything, and I mean everything, has gone perfectly for the past two months for this guy. Nothing and no horse have been able to stop him. But the worm may have turned a bit at the draw. He gets stuck in post 2 and Social Inclusion opts to run on the undercard and not in here. There really isn’t any clear cut speed in here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he found himself on the lead. Maybe for once, he’ll be forced to do some heavy lifting, especially in the early going. I think there is a horse that can stop him in here but ultimately I think it will be the added distance. The Triple Crown will go unclaimed for another year. As for wagering purposes, I’ll be using him on the bottom end of my gimmicks but not on top.
3 Matterhorn 30/1 Joe Bravo (0 for 2) Todd Pletcher (2-16)
He was recently sold to the connections of third place Kentucky Derby finisher Danza so it’s almost like he’s pinch hitting. They even put Bravo on him, Danza’s jockey. He’s eligible for an entry level allowance contest but it’s the Belmont Stakes. You might as well be ambitious and hope he wants that added distance. If he doesn’t, that allowance race will be waiting for him at the end of the month. Pletcher won this in 2007 with the fantastic filly Rags to Riches and last year with Palace Malice. He’s looking to become the first trainer to win consecutive Belmonts since his old boss D. Wayne Lukas did it three years in a row from 1994 to 1996. With all of that said, I don’t like him for a penny.
4 Commanding Curve 15/1 Shaun Bridgmohan (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-3)
He’s one of the more popular answers to “If you don’t like California Chrome then who do you like?” A hard charging second in the Derby he has trained brilliantly the past five weeks. He’s fresh and it certainly it appears like he’s going to love the distance. But here is the problem with horses like him, deep closers: they don’t win the Belmont Stakes!! I know common sense dictates that if they come running at the end of a 1¼ mile race they’ll surely appreciate the extra quarter of a mile but there is very little place for common sense when it comes to horse racing. Can he get a piece of the pie? Absolutely. Can he win? Well, he would need the race to completely fall into his lap. I’ll use him on the bottom of my gimmicks but not on top.
5 Ride On Curlin 12/1 John Velazquez (2-17) Billy Gowan (Debut)
After a magical mystery tour courtesy of Calvin Borel in the Derby, things went a bit better in the Preakness, though Borel gave him the business early on aboard Ria Antonia, the main reason this guy was so far back. Despite the early annoyances, this colt came running on late and appeared to be a real threat to California Chrome turning for home. He, of course, never got to him but he should did put a bit of a scare into all of the Chromie Homie’s. His sire just missed in this in 2007 when he was beat by Rags to Riches, who was ridden by his new pilot Johnny V. Velazquez came back to win this again aboard Union Rags in 2012 and knows Belmont better than anyone. A lot of people say this is a riders’ race. If that’s the case, he may very well be in the best hands. I don’t think he’ll win but I would not be surprised if he did. Using him in all of my gimmicks.
6 Matuszak 30/1 Mike Smith (2 for 15) Bill Mott (1-5)
The team the brought you 2010 upset Belmont winner Drosselmeyer at 13-1 bring you an even bigger longshot here. Smith came back to win aboard Palace Malice last year and is looking to become the first jockey to win consecutive runnings of this since Laffit Pincay, Jr. did it three years in a row from 1982-1984. I’m the biggest Mott fan around and even I’m having trouble finding something good to say. He’s a plodder and I guess they’re hoping to grab a piece of it but I think it’s a stretch.
7 Samraat 20/1 Jose Ortiz (Debut) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)
Perhaps the New York-bred will stand up and defend his turf from the invading Californian looking for immortality. Hell, if things can go all Hollywood for the West Coast folks why not for the hometown hero? I know one thing, if this thing turns into a street fight on the far turn, this guy will be tough to get rid of. His biggest issue is getting to that point. I feel like he was one of a few in Louisville that didn’t have any trouble, he just didn’t fire in the lane. With the lack of speed in here, I’m also wondering if they revert to his old running style and put him in front. Too many question marks for me to endorse but I wouldn’t mind him getting some revenge for fellow New Yorker, Funny Cide.
8 Commissioner 20/1 Javier Castellano (0-7) Todd Pletcher (2-16)
As it is every year, the biggest question these horses all have to answer is whether they’ll handle the distance of “The Test of the Champion” or not. One thing is for sure….if this race was based on pedigree, it would be all over and they’d declare this guy the champ now. He’s by A.P. Indy, who was by Seattle Slew and out of a Touch Gold mare. All three of those horses won the Belmont!!! All three!!! You get Castellano and Pletcher, you’re defending Eclipse champs in the jockey and trainer and trainer categories, at a price that will likely be in the 20-1 range on a horse that Pletcher has given every opportunity to show he belongs. The talent is there, he just needs that proverbial late bulb to go off. I’m not willing to bet that it’ll happen Saturday but I will use him in my gimmicks and will tell you that if you’re one of these people that just like to play the longer shots, this is your guy.
9 Wicked Strong 6/1 Rajiv Maragh (0-3) Jimmy Jerkens (0-2)
In 2000, Commendable became the first horse EVER to win the Belmont having last raced in the Kentucky Derby. Since then, it’s happened six more times. This year, Medal Count, Commanding Curve, Samraat and this colt will try to bump that number up. And when you look closely, Wicked Strong may have the best chance of them all. After a huge win in the Wood Memorial, he stumbled at the start, found some traffic trouble early and was stuck behind a wall of horses late from post 20 in the Derby last out, yet still kept coming to finish fourth. It’s funny to me that no one has even mentioned that fact that he probably bounced a bit in the Derby, which would set him up perfectly for a career best effort she he take that step forward. He’s had five weeks to get ready for this from the comforts of his own stall over a track he loves for a trainer who comes from one of the greatest racing families the game has ever seen. When a guy named Jerkens leads a horse over to the paddock, especially going a distance of ground, you can be sure they’ll be fit. I think he’ll be right there at the finish. Using him in all of my wagers.
10 General a Rod 20/1 Rosie Napravnik (0-2) Mike Maker (0-1)
Another who was a little late coming to the party, I’m wondering if his connections sensed that there would be a lack of clear cut speed in here if Social Inclusion defected, like he did, and if that was something they could take advantage of. Look, plain and simply the lead is his if he wants it. California Chrome’s people would LOVE a target, I don’t think Samraat’s folks really want to put him on the engine and I don’t see any other true speed type in here. He didn’t have the cleanest trip in the Derby and was stopped cold in the Preakness behind the fast fading filly Ria Antonia and came running late to be fourth. He’d have been much closer with a better trip. Again, my biggest issue with him is the distance. I don’t think he can get it and think the only shot he has a chance at getting any kind of piece is by stealing it on the front end. I’m passing but he may wind up being the most important piece of the Belmont puzzle this year.
11 Tonalist 8/1 Joel Rosario (0-3) Christophe Clement (0-1)
His biggest claim to fame is his Peter Pan win over a suspect bunch over a sloppy track he’s bred to love. He dragged Rosario to the lead that day and pretty much improved at every point of call. He has just a maiden win from three other starts but was second to Constitution in the Gulfstream “allowance race to end all allowance races” back on the Fountain of Youth undercard. His PPs aren’t super-imposing by any means. But these eyes know the real deal when they see it and he’s the real deal. His rider seemed to think so considering he gave Clement a two race call for the Peter Pan AND Belmont having not been on his back in almost six months. Speaking of Clement, sure he’s better known as a trainer of turf horses but the one thing you surely need when training a turf is to build stamina. He’s a fantastic trainer, period, and he’s brimming with confidence. I love his outside draw because he can see how it all plays out inside of him and make a decision from there. I truly think he’s the one that stops history from happening. My pick to win the Belmont Stakes.
Three live long-shot bets for the 2014 Belmont Stakes
By DOC'S SPORTS
The Belmont Stakes produces big long-shot winners often enough to make bettors drool. Four of the last six winners have paid at least 13/1 and the win price for four of the last 12 winners has been more than $50 on a two dollar bet - much more in the case of 70/1 Sarava in 2002.
Over that same time period, Afleet Alex in 2005 is the only favorite to have won the race, well below expectations. It has been such a long-shot friendly race, that while you would have spent $254 to bet every single horse in the last 12 years to win, you would have returned $473.20 - a healthy 86 percent ROI.
Given all that, it only makes sense to look beyond California Chrome and the rest of the top contenders and consider three long shots who could come through at a big price. Or at least fatten up the exotics a bit:
Matuszak (+5,000)
Bettors will never forget the 1999 Belmont because of the injury that cost Charismatic what was a very good shot at a Triple Crown. He faded in the stretch despite trying to run on a broken leg and two long shots beat him: Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse. The latter was a 55/1 no-hoper who ran the race of his life on that day.
Why is that relevant? Vision and verse was trained by the great Bill Mott, who brings this apparent no-hoper to the field this year. He hasn’t won since breaking his maiden last fall and doesn’t seem to be fast enough to be a factor here. His breeding is excellent for this race, though, and he has trained very well since his last outing.
Could he be a horse finding himself just in time? Stranger things have certainly happened at the Belmont and Matuszak would certainly create some pretty nice payoffs if he did factor in the exotics.
Commissioner (+3,500)
There are some horses you just don’t like. They rub you the wrong way. This is one of those horses. He has run against several horses that have been in Triple Crown races this year and just hasn’t been good enough.
He’s a Todd Pletcher horse and that isn’t exactly a major strength this time of year. Though, Pletcher is much better in the Belmont than elsewhere. You really want to just toss this horse out, but two things stop you from doing it.
First, his breeding is ridiculously suited to this race. His sire, A.P. Indy, was the 1992 Belmont winner and is the son of 1977 winner Seattle Slew and grandson of 1973 winner Secretariat. Commissioner’s damsire is Touch Gold, who won the Belmont in 1997. You can’t pack more winners of one race into three generations of a pedigree, so we know the distance isn’t going to be an issue.
Second, he is ridden by Javier Castellano. Castellano is en route to running away with the national jockey title for a second straight year and he wins races in New York at an almost impossible clip. On this track, Castellano will get the best possible ride out of Commissioner.
General A Rod (+2,000)
The handling of this horse since the Kentucky Derby has been downright bizarre. He wasn’t considered for the Preakness until late, but then the connections had a change of mind and entered him.
Now, for two weeks he wasn’t considered for the Belmont, then suddenly he was being pointed here and a jockey - Rosie Napravnik - had been named. You shouldn’t like a trainer to make one knee-jerk reaction with a horse, never mind two in three weeks.
He didn’t run as poorly as his fourth-place finish would suggest in the Preakness, though. He faced enough adversity that many other horses would have quit, but he fought back and was gaining ground at the end. Another stride or two and he would have been third.
You should like the presence of Dynaformer in his pedigree and could see him being part of the superfecta at a decent price like he was at the Preakness.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
By DOC'S SPORTS
The Belmont Stakes produces big long-shot winners often enough to make bettors drool. Four of the last six winners have paid at least 13/1 and the win price for four of the last 12 winners has been more than $50 on a two dollar bet - much more in the case of 70/1 Sarava in 2002.
Over that same time period, Afleet Alex in 2005 is the only favorite to have won the race, well below expectations. It has been such a long-shot friendly race, that while you would have spent $254 to bet every single horse in the last 12 years to win, you would have returned $473.20 - a healthy 86 percent ROI.
Given all that, it only makes sense to look beyond California Chrome and the rest of the top contenders and consider three long shots who could come through at a big price. Or at least fatten up the exotics a bit:
Matuszak (+5,000)
Bettors will never forget the 1999 Belmont because of the injury that cost Charismatic what was a very good shot at a Triple Crown. He faded in the stretch despite trying to run on a broken leg and two long shots beat him: Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse. The latter was a 55/1 no-hoper who ran the race of his life on that day.
Why is that relevant? Vision and verse was trained by the great Bill Mott, who brings this apparent no-hoper to the field this year. He hasn’t won since breaking his maiden last fall and doesn’t seem to be fast enough to be a factor here. His breeding is excellent for this race, though, and he has trained very well since his last outing.
Could he be a horse finding himself just in time? Stranger things have certainly happened at the Belmont and Matuszak would certainly create some pretty nice payoffs if he did factor in the exotics.
Commissioner (+3,500)
There are some horses you just don’t like. They rub you the wrong way. This is one of those horses. He has run against several horses that have been in Triple Crown races this year and just hasn’t been good enough.
He’s a Todd Pletcher horse and that isn’t exactly a major strength this time of year. Though, Pletcher is much better in the Belmont than elsewhere. You really want to just toss this horse out, but two things stop you from doing it.
First, his breeding is ridiculously suited to this race. His sire, A.P. Indy, was the 1992 Belmont winner and is the son of 1977 winner Seattle Slew and grandson of 1973 winner Secretariat. Commissioner’s damsire is Touch Gold, who won the Belmont in 1997. You can’t pack more winners of one race into three generations of a pedigree, so we know the distance isn’t going to be an issue.
Second, he is ridden by Javier Castellano. Castellano is en route to running away with the national jockey title for a second straight year and he wins races in New York at an almost impossible clip. On this track, Castellano will get the best possible ride out of Commissioner.
General A Rod (+2,000)
The handling of this horse since the Kentucky Derby has been downright bizarre. He wasn’t considered for the Preakness until late, but then the connections had a change of mind and entered him.
Now, for two weeks he wasn’t considered for the Belmont, then suddenly he was being pointed here and a jockey - Rosie Napravnik - had been named. You shouldn’t like a trainer to make one knee-jerk reaction with a horse, never mind two in three weeks.
He didn’t run as poorly as his fourth-place finish would suggest in the Preakness, though. He faced enough adversity that many other horses would have quit, but he fought back and was gaining ground at the end. Another stride or two and he would have been third.
You should like the presence of Dynaformer in his pedigree and could see him being part of the superfecta at a decent price like he was at the Preakness.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
Post 7 producing winners in past
Justin Hartling Jun 6, 2014
In the past 30 years of the Belmont, no post has produced more winners than Post 7 .Post 7 has been raced out of 25 times and has produced five winners. Notably, California Chrome will race out of Post 2, where only two winners in the past 30 years have come from, sporting a poor 7 percent winning percentage.
Here is a complete list of pole position, number of starts and number of wins:
Post 7: Five wins (25 starts)
Post 4: Four wins (30 starts)
Post 9: Three wins (24 starts)
Post 8: Three wins (25 starts)
Post 1: Three wins (29 starts)
Post 5: Two wins (29 starts)
Post 2: Two wins (30 starts)
Post 12: One win (11 starts)
Post 6: One win (30 starts)
Post 11: One win (14 starts)
Post 10: One win (21 starts)
Justin Hartling Jun 6, 2014
In the past 30 years of the Belmont, no post has produced more winners than Post 7 .Post 7 has been raced out of 25 times and has produced five winners. Notably, California Chrome will race out of Post 2, where only two winners in the past 30 years have come from, sporting a poor 7 percent winning percentage.
Here is a complete list of pole position, number of starts and number of wins:
Post 7: Five wins (25 starts)
Post 4: Four wins (30 starts)
Post 9: Three wins (24 starts)
Post 8: Three wins (25 starts)
Post 1: Three wins (29 starts)
Post 5: Two wins (29 starts)
Post 2: Two wins (30 starts)
Post 12: One win (11 starts)
Post 6: One win (30 starts)
Post 11: One win (14 starts)
Post 10: One win (21 starts)
Longshot historically likely to beat California Chrome
Justin Hartling Jun 6, 2014
When California Chrome goes for the first Triple Crown since 1978, but bettors have other horses to watch. In the past five races that have seen a horse looking for the Triple Crown at Belmont, four of the winners have had at least 30/1 odds.
The last five Belmont winners with the Triple Crown on the line were Da'Tara (39/1), Birdstone (36/1), Empire Maker (2/1), Sarava (70/1) and Lemon Drop Kid (30/1).
Justin Hartling Jun 6, 2014
When California Chrome goes for the first Triple Crown since 1978, but bettors have other horses to watch. In the past five races that have seen a horse looking for the Triple Crown at Belmont, four of the winners have had at least 30/1 odds.
The last five Belmont winners with the Triple Crown on the line were Da'Tara (39/1), Birdstone (36/1), Empire Maker (2/1), Sarava (70/1) and Lemon Drop Kid (30/1).
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #11 - 6:52 PM
THE BELMONT STAKES
12.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $1,500,000.00 PURSE
#2 CALIFORNIA CHROME
#5 RIDE ON CURLIN
#7 SAMRAAT
#9 WICKED STRONG
The Belmont Stakes, the final and most demanding leg of the Triple Crown, is named after August Belmont who had been a leading banker and racing man of the 19th century. He was also the first president of the Jockey Club in 1867. In 1869, August Belmont took first and second money with his own Fenian and Glenelg. The Belmont Stakes was run at Jerome Park 1867-89; at Morris Park 1890-1904; and at Aqueduct 1963-67. Not run 1911-12. Run at 1 5/8 miles 1867-73; 1 1/4th miles 1890-95, and 1904-05; 1 1/8 miles 1893-94; 1 3/8 miles 1896-1903 and 1906-25. No time taken 1907-08. Run as a Handicap Stakes in 1895 and in 1913. The value for the 1987, 1988 and 1992 winners includes the $1 million Triple Crown point system bonus. Secretariat established a world record for 1 1/2 miles on the dirt in his 31-length victory in 1973 (and yes ... I was at the race!) With his win in the Belmont, he became the ninth horse to capture the Triple Crown. This is the 146th running of this incredibly important stakes event ... and for me, it will be interesting to see which "Thoroughbred Historical List," the favorite, #2 CALIFORNIA CHROME will be added to ... List #1 has names like Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and most recently (1978) Affirmed, engraved in stone ... while List #2 has some equally impressive Thoroughbreds such as Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones engraved along with 9 others ... List #1 represents the 11 Triple Crown Winners ... and List #2 represents the 12 horses, since Affirmed won the 1978 Triple Crown, to win both The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness, only to lose The Belmont Stakes. Quite honestly folks ... before I saw the TrackMaster Speed Figures for my contender's last five races (all by the way, won in "POWER RUN FASHION" by California Chrome) my "blind pick to win" was #5 RIDE ON CURLIN, the 2nd place finisher in Baltimore in The Preakness. My reasoning was of course ... "Chrome" bounded to a nice lead in that race, but Ride on Curlin was closing smartly in the last 1/16th of a mile ... which based on a "pace profile" would give him a "closing advantage" here in a race as long as 12 furlongs. But the TrackMaster PLUS speed ratings in those last five outings simply don't "add up" to an upset. Also quite honestly, the TrackMaster PLUS "Power Ratings" "see" #7 SAMRAAT, a 20-1 BOMB as the winner. Like California Chrome, he has a nice pace profile in route races, and has posted a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" in his last five outings, including a BLISTERING, 17-length win in his 5th race back. Have fun this afternoon folks ... and "bet with your head ... not over it!" Rick Needham
RACE #11 - 6:52 PM
THE BELMONT STAKES
12.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $1,500,000.00 PURSE
#2 CALIFORNIA CHROME
#5 RIDE ON CURLIN
#7 SAMRAAT
#9 WICKED STRONG
The Belmont Stakes, the final and most demanding leg of the Triple Crown, is named after August Belmont who had been a leading banker and racing man of the 19th century. He was also the first president of the Jockey Club in 1867. In 1869, August Belmont took first and second money with his own Fenian and Glenelg. The Belmont Stakes was run at Jerome Park 1867-89; at Morris Park 1890-1904; and at Aqueduct 1963-67. Not run 1911-12. Run at 1 5/8 miles 1867-73; 1 1/4th miles 1890-95, and 1904-05; 1 1/8 miles 1893-94; 1 3/8 miles 1896-1903 and 1906-25. No time taken 1907-08. Run as a Handicap Stakes in 1895 and in 1913. The value for the 1987, 1988 and 1992 winners includes the $1 million Triple Crown point system bonus. Secretariat established a world record for 1 1/2 miles on the dirt in his 31-length victory in 1973 (and yes ... I was at the race!) With his win in the Belmont, he became the ninth horse to capture the Triple Crown. This is the 146th running of this incredibly important stakes event ... and for me, it will be interesting to see which "Thoroughbred Historical List," the favorite, #2 CALIFORNIA CHROME will be added to ... List #1 has names like Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and most recently (1978) Affirmed, engraved in stone ... while List #2 has some equally impressive Thoroughbreds such as Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones engraved along with 9 others ... List #1 represents the 11 Triple Crown Winners ... and List #2 represents the 12 horses, since Affirmed won the 1978 Triple Crown, to win both The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness, only to lose The Belmont Stakes. Quite honestly folks ... before I saw the TrackMaster Speed Figures for my contender's last five races (all by the way, won in "POWER RUN FASHION" by California Chrome) my "blind pick to win" was #5 RIDE ON CURLIN, the 2nd place finisher in Baltimore in The Preakness. My reasoning was of course ... "Chrome" bounded to a nice lead in that race, but Ride on Curlin was closing smartly in the last 1/16th of a mile ... which based on a "pace profile" would give him a "closing advantage" here in a race as long as 12 furlongs. But the TrackMaster PLUS speed ratings in those last five outings simply don't "add up" to an upset. Also quite honestly, the TrackMaster PLUS "Power Ratings" "see" #7 SAMRAAT, a 20-1 BOMB as the winner. Like California Chrome, he has a nice pace profile in route races, and has posted a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" in his last five outings, including a BLISTERING, 17-length win in his 5th race back. Have fun this afternoon folks ... and "bet with your head ... not over it!" Rick Needham
SPORTSWAGERS
HORSERACING
Belmont Park – Race #11
#2 California Chrome NOT to win
One of the great appeals of Betfair is that they are a resource for betting on horse racing (and other events) and provide us with an opportunity to “act like a bookmaker” and lay horses (take action). Betfair acts only as a facilitator to these events, therefore they have no monetary interest in the outcome. They are a betting exchange that allows us to offer odds on any sporting event or horse race.
Betfair allows you to take action on a horse to lose or to finish out of the money (1st 2nd or 3rd) and/or they also allow you to bet horses to win or finish in the top 3 positions. In this case, we are betting against horses and for a full explanation on "laying" horses at Betfair, see our latest blog titled "Explanation of BETFAIR Horse Racing and sports betting exchange.
#2 California Chrome NOT to win
Belmont Park – Race #11
Approximately 6:50 PM EST.
The Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown
All that stands between California Chrome and racing immortality is a mere mile and a half. A distance roughly equal to what he normally gallops in morning training is all that is left on his quest to join the illustrious group of 11 horses who have won the elusive Triple Crown. However, there is more than distance working against him, as recent history has been unkind to horses who participated in all three legs of the rigorous series.
In 2000, Commendable became the first Belmont winner to enter the race off a five-week break following a try in the Kentucky Derby. Since his victory, six horses have pulled off the same feat, Empire Maker (2003), Birdstone (2004), Jazil (2006), Summer Bird (2009), Union Rags (2012), and Palace Malice (2013). During the same 13-year period, horses who raced in the Preakness have struggled mightily three weeks later in the Belmont. Their collective record is 2-for-35. If you made a $2 win wager on each of those 35 runners, you would have recouped just 13% of your investment and are down a whopping $61. Included among the 33 starters to be defeated are failed Triple Crown hopefuls War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown. Each of those four were beaten as favorites, as were Curlin (2007), Mine That Bird (2009), Animal Kingdom (2011), and Orb (2013).
However, it is not only the horses who failed in Triple Crown attempts that show the difficulty of racing in all three legs of the series. The mighty Curlin lost a pitched battle to Rags to Riches in 2007 as the even money favorite after scoring a determined victory three weeks before in the Preakness. Mine That Bird sputtered in the final furlongs of the 2009 Belmont, failing as the 6-to-5 favorite. Finally, last year, Orb came up well short of Palace Malice as the 2-to-1 favorite in a packed field of 14. In addition to the 2-for-35 record that Preakness alums hold in the Belmont dating back to 2000, 23 of those horses had also run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Their overall record is 2-for-23 with the lone victories coming from Point Given and Afleet Alex.
The demanding 12-furlong distance of the Belmont and the fact that high-level distance racing is non-existent in the United States, has contributed to the randomness of the results. The winners of the 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2012 Belmont Stakes never won another race. For some it was because injury ended their careers, for others it was because they were simply ineffective in what are considered more conventional races in the USA. This notion adds to the gravity of California Chrome’s task, given that it is frequently a distance specialist who is victorious in the Belmont. There is no doubt that California Chrome has exerted his superiority in this crop of 3-year-olds. He has thoroughly handled every horse to line up with him in his last six starts, and he comes in expected to end a drought that has included many talented Thoroughbreds falling short of the goal. His obstacles stretch beyond the equines that will compete against him on the racetrack, as he bids to perform at a high level for the third time in a short period. History says no. History says that winning the Triple Crown is one of the, if not the most difficult accomplishment in all of sports. What we know for sure is that California Chrome will be the overwhelming favorite and if he wins, so be it but there is a TON of value in fading him and that’s precisely what we’re going to do. We’ll risk 1½ units to win approximately the same amount at odds of even money or less. We’ll go as high as 2-1 but California Chrome will certainly not be that big of a price.
HORSERACING
Belmont Park – Race #11
#2 California Chrome NOT to win
One of the great appeals of Betfair is that they are a resource for betting on horse racing (and other events) and provide us with an opportunity to “act like a bookmaker” and lay horses (take action). Betfair acts only as a facilitator to these events, therefore they have no monetary interest in the outcome. They are a betting exchange that allows us to offer odds on any sporting event or horse race.
Betfair allows you to take action on a horse to lose or to finish out of the money (1st 2nd or 3rd) and/or they also allow you to bet horses to win or finish in the top 3 positions. In this case, we are betting against horses and for a full explanation on "laying" horses at Betfair, see our latest blog titled "Explanation of BETFAIR Horse Racing and sports betting exchange.
#2 California Chrome NOT to win
Belmont Park – Race #11
Approximately 6:50 PM EST.
The Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown
All that stands between California Chrome and racing immortality is a mere mile and a half. A distance roughly equal to what he normally gallops in morning training is all that is left on his quest to join the illustrious group of 11 horses who have won the elusive Triple Crown. However, there is more than distance working against him, as recent history has been unkind to horses who participated in all three legs of the rigorous series.
In 2000, Commendable became the first Belmont winner to enter the race off a five-week break following a try in the Kentucky Derby. Since his victory, six horses have pulled off the same feat, Empire Maker (2003), Birdstone (2004), Jazil (2006), Summer Bird (2009), Union Rags (2012), and Palace Malice (2013). During the same 13-year period, horses who raced in the Preakness have struggled mightily three weeks later in the Belmont. Their collective record is 2-for-35. If you made a $2 win wager on each of those 35 runners, you would have recouped just 13% of your investment and are down a whopping $61. Included among the 33 starters to be defeated are failed Triple Crown hopefuls War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown. Each of those four were beaten as favorites, as were Curlin (2007), Mine That Bird (2009), Animal Kingdom (2011), and Orb (2013).
However, it is not only the horses who failed in Triple Crown attempts that show the difficulty of racing in all three legs of the series. The mighty Curlin lost a pitched battle to Rags to Riches in 2007 as the even money favorite after scoring a determined victory three weeks before in the Preakness. Mine That Bird sputtered in the final furlongs of the 2009 Belmont, failing as the 6-to-5 favorite. Finally, last year, Orb came up well short of Palace Malice as the 2-to-1 favorite in a packed field of 14. In addition to the 2-for-35 record that Preakness alums hold in the Belmont dating back to 2000, 23 of those horses had also run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Their overall record is 2-for-23 with the lone victories coming from Point Given and Afleet Alex.
The demanding 12-furlong distance of the Belmont and the fact that high-level distance racing is non-existent in the United States, has contributed to the randomness of the results. The winners of the 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2012 Belmont Stakes never won another race. For some it was because injury ended their careers, for others it was because they were simply ineffective in what are considered more conventional races in the USA. This notion adds to the gravity of California Chrome’s task, given that it is frequently a distance specialist who is victorious in the Belmont. There is no doubt that California Chrome has exerted his superiority in this crop of 3-year-olds. He has thoroughly handled every horse to line up with him in his last six starts, and he comes in expected to end a drought that has included many talented Thoroughbreds falling short of the goal. His obstacles stretch beyond the equines that will compete against him on the racetrack, as he bids to perform at a high level for the third time in a short period. History says no. History says that winning the Triple Crown is one of the, if not the most difficult accomplishment in all of sports. What we know for sure is that California Chrome will be the overwhelming favorite and if he wins, so be it but there is a TON of value in fading him and that’s precisely what we’re going to do. We’ll risk 1½ units to win approximately the same amount at odds of even money or less. We’ll go as high as 2-1 but California Chrome will certainly not be that big of a price.
Belmont Stakes Picks
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews
We’re as sentimental as the next guys – okay, maybe slightly less so – so we’ll be cheering along with everyone else for California Chrome to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in horse racing history and the first since Affirmed in 1978 in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
But as gamblers at heart, we’re apt to take a shot against a 3-to-5 favorite, no matter how compelling his story is.
To that end, The Linemakers on Sporting News' Brian Blessing and Vinny Magliulo, as well as three more of our handicapping friends, have weighed in with their picks for the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes.
Consider these selections, along with your own handicapping, and go hit some winners on Saturday!
Blessing will play No. 1 Medal Count to win and place, and will use him in an exacta box with California Chrome. Medal Count finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby, but had it not been for such a rough trip around the Churchill Downs track, he should have finished third, perhaps even second, Blessing believes.
Magliulo also recommends No. 9 Wicked Strong and No. 7 Samraat, the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in the Derby, respectively. Both colts have wins over the Belmont surface and should be fresh with a five-week rest.
Thoughts and picks from the rest of our panel. . . .
Brad Telias, veteran horse racing writer, who’s attending his 50th consecutive Belmont Stakes on Saturday
No. 9 Wicked Strong stumbled in the Derby but still finished fast. He has the extra rest skipping the Preakness and showed it with sharp works over the sandy Belmont strip that he's won at a mile.
No. 11 Tonalist comes off a win in the Peter Pan, which is regarded as the ideal Belmont Stakes prep. Although lightly raced, he keeps improving and has a good distance pedigree. Belmont regular Joel Rosario boosts his chances even more.
No. 5 Ride on Curlin, after rallying and gaining on California Chrome in the Preakness, now has one of Belmont's savviest riders with Johnny Velazquez, who'll need to use the tractable speed this horse has shown in earlier efforts. Strong distance pedigree (Curlin) will no doubt help.
Telias has this to say about the Triple Crown hopeful: California Chrome has benefited from some soft trips, avoiding traffic and stalking the lead. He's had it easy so far, and there may be little left in the tank after two taxing races. Let's see when he encounters some adversity. And I still feel uncomfortable with Espinoza aboard. Despite a couple of fortunate quick decisions in the Preakness, I don't think he has it for the consummate jockey's race at a mile-and-a-half.
Don't misunderstand, I'll be happy for my 50th and a Triple Crown champion if I'm wrong, but Chrome has too much to overcome.
Mike Wilkening, writer, The Linemakers
No. 10 General a Rod. Was going well in the Preakness before running into major traffic trouble after six furlongs. With a clean trip, he’s capable of upsetting.
No 2. California Chrome. Will run his race, and he’s capable of winning this stylishly, but that final quarter-mile will be the litmus test.
No. 1 Medal Count. Talented and well-rested, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
No. 9 Wicked Strong. Picked up some pieces late in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to improve on that to win the Belmont.
Chris Andrews, veteran Las Vegas bookmaker and handicapper
There's not much more to say about California Chrome. Part of me wants him to win for the good of the sport. But I've been around long enough to know the Triple Crown doesn't happen often because it's really hard. That sounds incredibly simplistic, but it's also true. Horses don't win three Grade I races in five weeks at any age. To ask a three-year old to do it is too much. So I'm going to try to beat the favorite.
My top choice is No. 11 Tonalist. Christophe Clement has an incredible record training horses to go a route. Most of his success has been on turf, but I have every reason to believe he can transfer that to the dirt for this horse in this race. Tonalist’s sire, Tapit, has not had tremendous success in breeding great stayers, but he has good stamina influences on his dam side. Tonalist might have finally arrived with his powerful performance in his last race, the Peter Pan. Years ago, the Peter Pan was a prime avenue for late-blooming three-year olds. Belmont winners AP Indy, Coastal, Lemon Drop Kid and Colonial Affair came out of this race, as well as other late bloomers Slew O' Gold and Seeking The Gold. I'm betting Tonalist adds to that list.
My second choice is No. 8 Commissioner. Todd Pletcher is another trainer who can get his horses to go a route. Commissioner was second to Tonalist in the Peter Pan, so I'm putting a lot of eggs in that basket. He's a bit inconsistent but looks like he's improving. He's also got the breeding. His sire, AP Indy won this race, as well as both his grandsires, Seattle Slew and Touch Gold. His bloodlines say distance won't be the problem. We'll have to see if he's good enough.
Third choice is No. 7 Samraat. He ran a pretty decent fifth in the Derby. He has been resting since then to train up to this race. He has a good chance to be on the lead, and speed horses have been known to steal this race or at least stick around for a piece. California Chrome is the only other horse who might challenge his lead, and I think they want to take him back a bit. He’s never ran a bad race, and he broke his maiden here at Big Sandy. He has a ton of heart, which he displayed in winning the Withers and the Gotham.
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews
We’re as sentimental as the next guys – okay, maybe slightly less so – so we’ll be cheering along with everyone else for California Chrome to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in horse racing history and the first since Affirmed in 1978 in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
But as gamblers at heart, we’re apt to take a shot against a 3-to-5 favorite, no matter how compelling his story is.
To that end, The Linemakers on Sporting News' Brian Blessing and Vinny Magliulo, as well as three more of our handicapping friends, have weighed in with their picks for the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes.
Consider these selections, along with your own handicapping, and go hit some winners on Saturday!
Blessing will play No. 1 Medal Count to win and place, and will use him in an exacta box with California Chrome. Medal Count finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby, but had it not been for such a rough trip around the Churchill Downs track, he should have finished third, perhaps even second, Blessing believes.
Magliulo also recommends No. 9 Wicked Strong and No. 7 Samraat, the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in the Derby, respectively. Both colts have wins over the Belmont surface and should be fresh with a five-week rest.
Thoughts and picks from the rest of our panel. . . .
Brad Telias, veteran horse racing writer, who’s attending his 50th consecutive Belmont Stakes on Saturday
No. 9 Wicked Strong stumbled in the Derby but still finished fast. He has the extra rest skipping the Preakness and showed it with sharp works over the sandy Belmont strip that he's won at a mile.
No. 11 Tonalist comes off a win in the Peter Pan, which is regarded as the ideal Belmont Stakes prep. Although lightly raced, he keeps improving and has a good distance pedigree. Belmont regular Joel Rosario boosts his chances even more.
No. 5 Ride on Curlin, after rallying and gaining on California Chrome in the Preakness, now has one of Belmont's savviest riders with Johnny Velazquez, who'll need to use the tractable speed this horse has shown in earlier efforts. Strong distance pedigree (Curlin) will no doubt help.
Telias has this to say about the Triple Crown hopeful: California Chrome has benefited from some soft trips, avoiding traffic and stalking the lead. He's had it easy so far, and there may be little left in the tank after two taxing races. Let's see when he encounters some adversity. And I still feel uncomfortable with Espinoza aboard. Despite a couple of fortunate quick decisions in the Preakness, I don't think he has it for the consummate jockey's race at a mile-and-a-half.
Don't misunderstand, I'll be happy for my 50th and a Triple Crown champion if I'm wrong, but Chrome has too much to overcome.
Mike Wilkening, writer, The Linemakers
No. 10 General a Rod. Was going well in the Preakness before running into major traffic trouble after six furlongs. With a clean trip, he’s capable of upsetting.
No 2. California Chrome. Will run his race, and he’s capable of winning this stylishly, but that final quarter-mile will be the litmus test.
No. 1 Medal Count. Talented and well-rested, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
No. 9 Wicked Strong. Picked up some pieces late in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to improve on that to win the Belmont.
Chris Andrews, veteran Las Vegas bookmaker and handicapper
There's not much more to say about California Chrome. Part of me wants him to win for the good of the sport. But I've been around long enough to know the Triple Crown doesn't happen often because it's really hard. That sounds incredibly simplistic, but it's also true. Horses don't win three Grade I races in five weeks at any age. To ask a three-year old to do it is too much. So I'm going to try to beat the favorite.
My top choice is No. 11 Tonalist. Christophe Clement has an incredible record training horses to go a route. Most of his success has been on turf, but I have every reason to believe he can transfer that to the dirt for this horse in this race. Tonalist’s sire, Tapit, has not had tremendous success in breeding great stayers, but he has good stamina influences on his dam side. Tonalist might have finally arrived with his powerful performance in his last race, the Peter Pan. Years ago, the Peter Pan was a prime avenue for late-blooming three-year olds. Belmont winners AP Indy, Coastal, Lemon Drop Kid and Colonial Affair came out of this race, as well as other late bloomers Slew O' Gold and Seeking The Gold. I'm betting Tonalist adds to that list.
My second choice is No. 8 Commissioner. Todd Pletcher is another trainer who can get his horses to go a route. Commissioner was second to Tonalist in the Peter Pan, so I'm putting a lot of eggs in that basket. He's a bit inconsistent but looks like he's improving. He's also got the breeding. His sire, AP Indy won this race, as well as both his grandsires, Seattle Slew and Touch Gold. His bloodlines say distance won't be the problem. We'll have to see if he's good enough.
Third choice is No. 7 Samraat. He ran a pretty decent fifth in the Derby. He has been resting since then to train up to this race. He has a good chance to be on the lead, and speed horses have been known to steal this race or at least stick around for a piece. California Chrome is the only other horse who might challenge his lead, and I think they want to take him back a bit. He’s never ran a bad race, and he broke his maiden here at Big Sandy. He has a ton of heart, which he displayed in winning the Withers and the Gotham.
