142-94 (60%) all-sports posted record...Cubs @ Reds preview and pick!

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The Chicago Cubs have totally outclassed the Cincinnati Reds in the first two games of this series and we're going to recommend them on the run-line as they go for the sweep tonight.

The Cubs are 17-6 in September and at 86-72 overall are one game ahead of the Astros in their hunt for October. They have routed the Reds 6-0 and 8-0 in the first two games of this series allowing a total of just six hits.

Another homer to Sammy Sosa tonight will see him pass Mickey Mantle and move into tenth place on the all-time list. He also needs two RBIs to become just the third player in Major League history with nine consecutive 35-homer, 100-RBI seasons. While this is another road game for the Cubs last night they had the majority of the support amongst the 30,000 fans.

Victor Zambrano (13-10, 2.97 ERA) looks to bounce back from a rare poor outing when he allowed six earned runs against the Pirates. But it pays to forgive quality pitchers one bad start and prior to that effort he had two or less earned runs in eight consecutive starts. We're very confident his last appearance was merely an aberration and following treatment for a sore back we fully expect him to have his best stuff again tonight. His lifetime ERA of 3.49 is a full two runs better than his opposing starter tonight. Furthermore in six career starts against the Reds he has a Pedro-like ERA of just 0.84 and WHIP of 1.031.

The Reds are 67-91 overall and 19 games back from the Cubs. They were shut-out last night by Shawn Estes who was just 7-11 with a 6.09 ERA prior to his victory. "He's not the only pitcher to come in here in the last four weeks and shut us down. We're struggling" said Russell Branyan who had a single.

Former Cubs pitcher Todd Van Poppel counters for the Reds and he is a walking, talking example of the lack of depth in MLB pitching. Lifetime he has 86 starts amongst 310 appearances and is 35-46 with a whopping 5.50 ERA. Couple his horrible numbers with the worst defense in the majors and a quality opponent and you'll begin to understand why we like the Cubs in this spot.

The Cubs have the edge over the Reds in almost every area and are a very strong play on the run-line tonight.

Recommended Play: Cubs -1.5 -132

Good luck
Mike Thomas
Champion Plays
 

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MC:

Why is laying so much on a RL bad in this situation? This is one of my picks also.

The one thing that concerns me here is Van Poppel for the Reds.
 

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Laying 135 to win 100 in a game where you have to win by 2 runs greatly decreases your odds.

If you think they won't lose, then be safe. Lay the chalk.

Just my opinion.

-MC
 

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Lately, I use two major indicators in deciding whether to bet. One is the urgency of needing to win (such as clinching a division) and the other is the recent scoring history of the dog.

In the case of the Cubs/Cincy game, Cincy has all but laid down and rolled over as far as their recent scoring goes. I think I'll take the RL as Mike has pointed out here.

I was also thinking about taking the RL in the Houston/Milwaukee game but Houston has not been scoring so I think I'll not bet the RL.

A third game I was looking at is Boston/Baltimore but the Orioles have been scoring well and Boston is at home so I'm reluctant to bet the RL on that one as well.

My picks will be posted later.

Thanks for the insight.
 

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