The Wizard's Kentucky Derby Selections
WIZARD'S 2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
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Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
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Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He is
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very fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look
ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
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That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he
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had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur
physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that
Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial.
Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his
blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the Wood
Memorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario
asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed
runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It
was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop.
McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been
limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself
is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over
40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-old
campaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror.
With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
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The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
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Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
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7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
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who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
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It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
Page 11 of 18
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
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back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
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14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take
Page 15 of 18
that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was
compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.
War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the
Page 17 of 18
top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had
a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Page 18 of 18
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
.
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
WIZARD'S 2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
Page 1 of 18
Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
Page 2 of 18
Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He is
Page 3 of 18
very fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look
ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
Page 4 of 18
That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he
Page 5 of 18
had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur
physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that
Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial.
Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his
blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the Wood
Memorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario
asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed
runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It
was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop.
McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been
limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself
is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over
40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-old
campaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror.
With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
Page 6 of 18
The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
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Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
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7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
Page 9 of 18
who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
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It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
Page 11 of 18
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
Page 12 of 18
back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
Page 13 of 18
14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take
Page 15 of 18
that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was
compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.
War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the
Page 17 of 18
top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had
a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Page 18 of 18
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
.
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
Kentucky Derby Odds
2015 Kentucky Derby Odds
Horse Odds
American Pharoah 3/1
Dortmund 4/1
Carpe Diem 6/1
Mubtaahij 8/1
Materiality 10/1
Upstart 14/1
International Star 16/1
Frosted 18/1
Firing Line 19/1
Danzig Moon 32/1
El Kabeir 32/1
Keen Ice 32/1
Itsaknockout 33/1
Far Right 34/1
Bolo 35/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 40/1
War Story 40/1
Frammento 55/1
Mr Z 60/1
Stanford 60/1
Tencendur 90/1
Bold Conquest 100/1
Metaboss 100/1
2015 Kentucky Derby Odds
Horse Odds
American Pharoah 3/1
Dortmund 4/1
Carpe Diem 6/1
Mubtaahij 8/1
Materiality 10/1
Upstart 14/1
International Star 16/1
Frosted 18/1
Firing Line 19/1
Danzig Moon 32/1
El Kabeir 32/1
Keen Ice 32/1
Itsaknockout 33/1
Far Right 34/1
Bolo 35/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 40/1
War Story 40/1
Frammento 55/1
Mr Z 60/1
Stanford 60/1
Tencendur 90/1
Bold Conquest 100/1
Metaboss 100/1
Derby Contenders - Part 1
By Anthony Stabile
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned
INTERNATIONAL STAR (9-5-2-0)
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 8)
JOCKEY: Miguel Mena (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: He is a one-run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: Tried all three surfaces the sport has to offer, winning two of his six tries, including the G3 Grey over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Also broke his maiden in his career debut on turf. Closed out the season with a fourth place finish in the G2 KJC at Churchill Downs.
THIS YEAR: A perfect three for three, International Star swept the three Fair Grounds preps in the same come-from-behind, gritty manner. He encountered some traffic trouble in both the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star when saving ground until the stretch and just kept on a comin’ at Stanford last out in the Louisiana Derby after a bit of a better trip.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 1st by neck 99 98
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 1 97 93
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 2 ½ 94 90
CONNECTIONS: Mike Maker wins races in bunches across the eastern half of the country while his rider Miguel Mena, who has ridden him in his last three starts, had a fantastic meet down at the Fair Grounds this past winter.
WORTH NOTING: His owners, Mr and Mrs. Ken Ramsey, usually race home-breds but bought this New York-bred colt at auction for $85,000. His sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Derby in 2000.
FAIR PRICE: Widely considered a second tier contender despite his unblemished record this season, I think 12-1 is about right but you’ll likely get higher.
DORTMUND (6-6-0-0)
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 3)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Dortmund made three starts at three different racetracks in the final two months of 2014 and won them all from just off the pace, including an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs that was sandwiched between a maiden tally at Santa Anita and a gritty tally in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
THIS YEAR: He’s managed to run his record to a perfect six for six with three more graded stakes score this season. He alternated on the lead with Firing Line in the G3 Robert Lewis before re-rallying along the rail to win then took the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sana Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 4 ¼ 106 106
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 1 ¼ 102 104
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by hd 101 104
CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002. Garcia hasn’t won the Derby but has won countless races for Baffert, including the 2010 Preakness aboard Lookin’ at Lucky.
WORTH NOTING: He’s one of two undefeated colts in the race. He’s named after a European soccer club like his stablemate, defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Derby.
FAIR PRICE: I think he should be the post time favorite, but that honor will more likely be bestowed upon his barn mate American Pharoah. If I were playing him to win I would accept 4-1.
CARPE DIEM (5-4-1-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 16)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career impressively, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland by daylight before running second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after an awkward journey.
THIS YEAR: He’s a perfect two for two, taking the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in his first start off of a four month layoff before an easy tally G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 1st by 3 102 95
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 1st by 5 96 98
B.C. Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by 6 ½ 93 93
CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most dominant duo in racing over the past 15 years or so, Pletcher won his lone Derby in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez won it the following year aboard Animal Kingdom when a late rider change was made the day before the race.
WORTH NOTING: His $1.6 million price tag is the highest of any runner that was sold at auction in this field. He has gone to post as the favorite in each of his five starts.
FAIR PRICE: In almost any other year, he’d keep that post time favorite streak intact but I think American Pharoah will steal that honor away. 6-1 is about right though he’ll likely be a point or two higher.
AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-4-0-0)
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (2 for 6)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: After losing his debut on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, the blinkers came off at he won two consecutive G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner at Santa Anita. He was scratched the week of the Breeders’ Cup with a foot injury.
THIS YEAR: A pair of runaway scores at Oaklawn in the G2 rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby, a race in which he showed some ability to rate for the first time in his career.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 8 102 1 05
Rebel, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 6 ¼ 99 100
FrontRunner, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 3 ¼ 99 101
CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002 with Espinoza aboard. Espinoza, of course, won last years’ renewal with California Chrome.
WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby entrants. It’s been reported that he has been running and training with a protective plate covering part of his hoof.
FAIR PRICE: He will be the favorite, that’s for sure. And he is getting a TON of good press, which will likely make him a bigger favorite than he should be considering the fact that this is widely considered a deep group of sophomores. I feel 5-1 should be his price but he’ll be lower than that.
FROSTED (7-2-4-0)
TRAINER: Kiaran McLaughlin (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: After finishing second in his first two starts, Frosted galloped home when stretching out to a mile before chasing from an outside post and settling for second in the G2 Remsen on a day where inside speed reigned supreme at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: He was second off a nearly two month layoff in the G2 Holy Bull before spitting the bit in the stretch of the G2 Fountain of Youth after opening up to an easy lead on the far turn when racing with blinkers for the first time. Last out, after a minor throat surgery, a rider change and adjustment to the blinkers, Frosted won the G1 Wood Memorial under a hand ride.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 107 103
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 4 ¾ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 2nd by 5 ½ 98 95
CONNECTIONS: McLaughlin has won countless G1 races, including the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and was second in the Derby with his first entrant, Closing Argument, back in 2005. Rosario piloted Orb through the slop to victory two years ago.
WORTH NOTING: The 107 Brisnet figure earned last out is the highest in the field.
FAIR PRICE: It’s hard to imagine getting over 10-1 on a horse that won the Wood Memorial at odds of 2-1 but that is exactly what is going to happen here. I would set his price at 8-1 but am expecting more.
By Anthony Stabile
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned
INTERNATIONAL STAR (9-5-2-0)
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 8)
JOCKEY: Miguel Mena (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: He is a one-run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: Tried all three surfaces the sport has to offer, winning two of his six tries, including the G3 Grey over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Also broke his maiden in his career debut on turf. Closed out the season with a fourth place finish in the G2 KJC at Churchill Downs.
THIS YEAR: A perfect three for three, International Star swept the three Fair Grounds preps in the same come-from-behind, gritty manner. He encountered some traffic trouble in both the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star when saving ground until the stretch and just kept on a comin’ at Stanford last out in the Louisiana Derby after a bit of a better trip.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 1st by neck 99 98
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 1 97 93
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 2 ½ 94 90
CONNECTIONS: Mike Maker wins races in bunches across the eastern half of the country while his rider Miguel Mena, who has ridden him in his last three starts, had a fantastic meet down at the Fair Grounds this past winter.
WORTH NOTING: His owners, Mr and Mrs. Ken Ramsey, usually race home-breds but bought this New York-bred colt at auction for $85,000. His sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Derby in 2000.
FAIR PRICE: Widely considered a second tier contender despite his unblemished record this season, I think 12-1 is about right but you’ll likely get higher.
DORTMUND (6-6-0-0)
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 3)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Dortmund made three starts at three different racetracks in the final two months of 2014 and won them all from just off the pace, including an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs that was sandwiched between a maiden tally at Santa Anita and a gritty tally in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.
THIS YEAR: He’s managed to run his record to a perfect six for six with three more graded stakes score this season. He alternated on the lead with Firing Line in the G3 Robert Lewis before re-rallying along the rail to win then took the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sana Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 4 ¼ 106 106
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 1 ¼ 102 104
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by hd 101 104
CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002. Garcia hasn’t won the Derby but has won countless races for Baffert, including the 2010 Preakness aboard Lookin’ at Lucky.
WORTH NOTING: He’s one of two undefeated colts in the race. He’s named after a European soccer club like his stablemate, defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Derby.
FAIR PRICE: I think he should be the post time favorite, but that honor will more likely be bestowed upon his barn mate American Pharoah. If I were playing him to win I would accept 4-1.
CARPE DIEM (5-4-1-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 16)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career impressively, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland by daylight before running second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after an awkward journey.
THIS YEAR: He’s a perfect two for two, taking the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in his first start off of a four month layoff before an easy tally G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 1st by 3 102 95
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 1st by 5 96 98
B.C. Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by 6 ½ 93 93
CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most dominant duo in racing over the past 15 years or so, Pletcher won his lone Derby in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez won it the following year aboard Animal Kingdom when a late rider change was made the day before the race.
WORTH NOTING: His $1.6 million price tag is the highest of any runner that was sold at auction in this field. He has gone to post as the favorite in each of his five starts.
FAIR PRICE: In almost any other year, he’d keep that post time favorite streak intact but I think American Pharoah will steal that honor away. 6-1 is about right though he’ll likely be a point or two higher.
AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-4-0-0)
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (2 for 6)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: After losing his debut on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, the blinkers came off at he won two consecutive G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner at Santa Anita. He was scratched the week of the Breeders’ Cup with a foot injury.
THIS YEAR: A pair of runaway scores at Oaklawn in the G2 rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby, a race in which he showed some ability to rate for the first time in his career.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 8 102 1 05
Rebel, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 6 ¼ 99 100
FrontRunner, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 3 ¼ 99 101
CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002 with Espinoza aboard. Espinoza, of course, won last years’ renewal with California Chrome.
WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby entrants. It’s been reported that he has been running and training with a protective plate covering part of his hoof.
FAIR PRICE: He will be the favorite, that’s for sure. And he is getting a TON of good press, which will likely make him a bigger favorite than he should be considering the fact that this is widely considered a deep group of sophomores. I feel 5-1 should be his price but he’ll be lower than that.
FROSTED (7-2-4-0)
TRAINER: Kiaran McLaughlin (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: After finishing second in his first two starts, Frosted galloped home when stretching out to a mile before chasing from an outside post and settling for second in the G2 Remsen on a day where inside speed reigned supreme at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: He was second off a nearly two month layoff in the G2 Holy Bull before spitting the bit in the stretch of the G2 Fountain of Youth after opening up to an easy lead on the far turn when racing with blinkers for the first time. Last out, after a minor throat surgery, a rider change and adjustment to the blinkers, Frosted won the G1 Wood Memorial under a hand ride.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 107 103
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 4 ¾ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 2nd by 5 ½ 98 95
CONNECTIONS: McLaughlin has won countless G1 races, including the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and was second in the Derby with his first entrant, Closing Argument, back in 2005. Rosario piloted Orb through the slop to victory two years ago.
WORTH NOTING: The 107 Brisnet figure earned last out is the highest in the field.
FAIR PRICE: It’s hard to imagine getting over 10-1 on a horse that won the Wood Memorial at odds of 2-1 but that is exactly what is going to happen here. I would set his price at 8-1 but am expecting more.
Derby Contenders - Part 2
By Anthony Stabile
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned
MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)
TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.
THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
U.A.E. Derby, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 8 NA NA
Al Bastikaya, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 2 ½ NA NA
U.A.E. 2000 Guineas, 1 mile, dirt, Meydan 2nd by hd NA NA
CONNECTIONS: While he’s making his Derby debut and isn’t a popular name when it comes to stateside racing, Mike de Kock is regarded as one of the best trainers in the world and has won over 200 G1 races worldwide. Soumillon has become one of his go to guys and is a Breeders’ Cup winner.
WORTH NOTING: Mike de Kock has started six horses in the U.S and all have finished in the trifecta. Like most of his previous runners, Mubtaahij will race without Lasix in the Derby. He is the only horse besides 1971 Derby and Preakness winner Canonero II to compete in the Derby having run twice past 1 1/8 miles.
FAIR PRICE: In a year that appears to have plenty of homegrown talent, this colt has gotten plenty of attention. With that said, there are still plenty of skeptics out there so you’ll probably get the 10-1 or 12-1 you should get.
MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.
THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 105 110
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¾ 100 102
Mdn spcl wt, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¼ 96 87
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, teams up with his “other” go-to guy, Javier Castellano, who hasn’t had much success in this race. Throughout the year, however, they are one of the most formidable duos in the land.
WORTH NOTING: The 110 Beyer figure earned last out is the highest in the field. He’s the only colt taking on the dreaded Apollo curse this season.
FAIR PRICE: On a Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream or Belmont or Saratoga, this recipe of an undefeated horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano usually results in 3-5 on the toteboard. Amazingly, in this heat, you’re going to get about 10-1 on him.
EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)
TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.
THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 3rd by 5 ¾ 101 94
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 ¾ 95 88
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 1 ¾ 94 93
CONNECTIONS: Terranova isn’t a usual player on the national scene but has gotten off to a solid start this year as he heads into Derby week winning at a bit over 20%. Borel, of course, was the darling of the Derby several years back, winning three in four years with Street Sense in 2007 and back to back scores with longshot Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.
WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby Entrants. Two of his three stakes wins have come over wet tracks.
FAIR PRICE: Lost some of his value when they named Borel as his rider. He’ll probably be about 20-1 but should be a bit higher than that.
UPSTART (7-3-3-1)
TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.
THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt GP 2nd by 1 ½ 103 108
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP *1st by 2 ¾ 95 93
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ½ 105 105
CONNECTIONS: It’s fair to say Violette is better known for being a local NY guy who can get a juvenile ready than a major player on the big stage. Ortiz has quickly become one of the leading riders in NY and is one of the best on the front end in the nation.
WORTH NOTING: Missed a few days of training with a brief illness in mid to late April. Looking to become the first NY bred since Funny Cide in 2003 to win the roses.
FAIR PRICE: He’s had an interesting winter at Gulfstream, to say the least. Those stewards had a major impact on his year thus far and that will likely impact this toteboard. If he would have won all three in Florida, and he very well could have, he’d have been 8-1. Now, you’ll likely get 15-1 or higher.
FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)
TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.
THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 2nd by 8 93 92
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by ¾ 93 91
Smarty Jones, 1 mile, dirt, OP 1st by 1 ¾ 92 89
CONNECTIONS: Midwestern mainstay Moquett will be making his Derby debut while Mike Smith upset the Derby applecart with Giacomo in 2005 at over 50-1
WORTH NOTING: Owner Harry Rosenblum sold part of this colt this winter and all of fellow Derby entrant War Story after his maiden win.
FAIR PRICE: Slow speed figures combined with getting beat a pole in the Arkansas Derby is likely going to inflate his price. I would make him 20-1 but you are certain to get a whole lot more.
By Anthony Stabile
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses", culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned
MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)
TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.
THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
U.A.E. Derby, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 8 NA NA
Al Bastikaya, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 2 ½ NA NA
U.A.E. 2000 Guineas, 1 mile, dirt, Meydan 2nd by hd NA NA
CONNECTIONS: While he’s making his Derby debut and isn’t a popular name when it comes to stateside racing, Mike de Kock is regarded as one of the best trainers in the world and has won over 200 G1 races worldwide. Soumillon has become one of his go to guys and is a Breeders’ Cup winner.
WORTH NOTING: Mike de Kock has started six horses in the U.S and all have finished in the trifecta. Like most of his previous runners, Mubtaahij will race without Lasix in the Derby. He is the only horse besides 1971 Derby and Preakness winner Canonero II to compete in the Derby having run twice past 1 1/8 miles.
FAIR PRICE: In a year that appears to have plenty of homegrown talent, this colt has gotten plenty of attention. With that said, there are still plenty of skeptics out there so you’ll probably get the 10-1 or 12-1 you should get.
MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.
THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 105 110
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¾ 100 102
Mdn spcl wt, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¼ 96 87
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, teams up with his “other” go-to guy, Javier Castellano, who hasn’t had much success in this race. Throughout the year, however, they are one of the most formidable duos in the land.
WORTH NOTING: The 110 Beyer figure earned last out is the highest in the field. He’s the only colt taking on the dreaded Apollo curse this season.
FAIR PRICE: On a Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream or Belmont or Saratoga, this recipe of an undefeated horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano usually results in 3-5 on the toteboard. Amazingly, in this heat, you’re going to get about 10-1 on him.
EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)
TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.
THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 3rd by 5 ¾ 101 94
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 ¾ 95 88
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 1 ¾ 94 93
CONNECTIONS: Terranova isn’t a usual player on the national scene but has gotten off to a solid start this year as he heads into Derby week winning at a bit over 20%. Borel, of course, was the darling of the Derby several years back, winning three in four years with Street Sense in 2007 and back to back scores with longshot Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.
WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby Entrants. Two of his three stakes wins have come over wet tracks.
FAIR PRICE: Lost some of his value when they named Borel as his rider. He’ll probably be about 20-1 but should be a bit higher than that.
UPSTART (7-3-3-1)
TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.
THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt GP 2nd by 1 ½ 103 108
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP *1st by 2 ¾ 95 93
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ½ 105 105
CONNECTIONS: It’s fair to say Violette is better known for being a local NY guy who can get a juvenile ready than a major player on the big stage. Ortiz has quickly become one of the leading riders in NY and is one of the best on the front end in the nation.
WORTH NOTING: Missed a few days of training with a brief illness in mid to late April. Looking to become the first NY bred since Funny Cide in 2003 to win the roses.
FAIR PRICE: He’s had an interesting winter at Gulfstream, to say the least. Those stewards had a major impact on his year thus far and that will likely impact this toteboard. If he would have won all three in Florida, and he very well could have, he’d have been 8-1. Now, you’ll likely get 15-1 or higher.
FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)
TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.
THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.
Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 2nd by 8 93 92
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by ¾ 93 91
Smarty Jones, 1 mile, dirt, OP 1st by 1 ¾ 92 89
CONNECTIONS: Midwestern mainstay Moquett will be making his Derby debut while Mike Smith upset the Derby applecart with Giacomo in 2005 at over 50-1
WORTH NOTING: Owner Harry Rosenblum sold part of this colt this winter and all of fellow Derby entrant War Story after his maiden win.
FAIR PRICE: Slow speed figures combined with getting beat a pole in the Arkansas Derby is likely going to inflate his price. I would make him 20-1 but you are certain to get a whole lot more.
Derby Contenders - Part 3
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (11 to 15)
ITSAKNOCKOUT (4-3-0-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: In his only start, Itsaknockout got up in a seven furlong maiden race to win by a nose.
THIS YEAR: Following an easy score in an allowance/optional claimer, Itsaknockout finished second in the G2 Fountain of Youth but was controversially elevated to first after getting carried out in the stretch by the winner, Upstart. Last out, he finished a lackluster fourth in the G1 Florida Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 21 82 76
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16miles, dirt, GP *2nd by 2 ¾ 91 88
Alw/opt cl, 1 mile, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¼ 102 92
CONNECTIONS: Super Saver gave Pletcher his lone Derby win five years ago while Saez has had no success in limited chances but did have a dynamite meet down at Gulfstream to start this season.
WORTH NOTING: This will be his first start outside of Gulfstream Park.
FAIR PRICE: He went from a perfect three for three, albeit by DQ and considered a major player to falling off of everyone’s radar after that last effort. He may still take some money because of Pletcher but you he should still be 30-1 or higher.
FIRING LINE (5-2-3-0)
TRAINER: Simon Callaghan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Finished second in his debut after breaking slowly at Santa Anita before breaking his maiden over the synthetic surface at Del Mar. He closed out his season with a gutsy runner-up finish to the undefeated Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity after alternating on the lead through furious early fractions
THIS YEAR: It began as last year ended, with a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Dortmund in the G3 Robert Lewis, a race in which he opened up a length on Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied along the rail to nail him. Firing Line followed that up with a dominant score in the G3 Sunland Derby last out.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sunland Derby, 1 18 miles, dirt, SUN 1st by 14 ¼ 101 97
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by hd 100 104
Los Alamitos Futurity, 11/16 miles, dirt, LA 2nd by hd 97 91
CONNECTIONS: His trainer is making his debut and getting his first taste of the big time but should be able to lean on the old stalwart Stevens who won this in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch and in 1997 with Silver Charm.
WORTH NOTING: He’s the only entrant that will be running in here off of a six week gap between races. This will be his sixth career start over his fifth different surface.
FAIR PRICE: Widely considered the forgotten horse which usually mean he’ll get some attention and take some “wiseguy” money as the big day approaches. He should still be around 18-1.
DANZIG MOON (5-1-2-0)
TRAINER: Mark Casse (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux (0 for 7)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A fourth place finish in his debut sprinting was followed up by a second place finish going a mile after he broke a bit slowly and a three month layoff.
THIS YEAR: An enthusiastic maiden tally off the bench at Gulfstream was followed by a non-descript fourth behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He tried Carpe Diem again in the G1 Blue Grass last out and finished up a bit stronger to get place money.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 2nd by 3 99 90
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 4th by 12 ½ 81 76
Mdn spcl wt, 1 mile, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¾ 92 87
CONNECTIONS: For a guy that always seems to be on the Derby Trail, Casse has only run two horses in the race. Leparoux has had plenty of success in the Bluegrass State just not in this event.
WORTH NOTING: He’s a Canadian bred son of Malibu Moon, the same sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb.
FAIR PRICE: He’s won just one race so you automatically need to ask for 30-1 or so. But this guy is kind of popular, especially when people mention horses they’re using in their exotic wagers, so he may actually take more money than he should.
WAR STORY (5-2-2-1)
TRAINER: Tom Amoss (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Joe Talamo (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Undefeated in two starts, he broke his maiden in a sprint at Churchill before being sold to his new connections. Stretched out to a mile and overcame some trouble at the break in his second start when he easily took an allowance/optional claimer at his winter home, the Fair Grounds.
THIS YEAR: Made the lead in deep stretch of the G3 LeComte before getting run down by International Star then finished second to him again in the G2 Risen Star after a wide journey. Last out, he raced a bit wide again in the G2 Louisiana Derby but failed to kick on through the stretch and finished third.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 3rd by 4 ½ 94 91
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 2nd by 1 96 91
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 2nd by 2 ½ 91 86
CONNECTIONS: As usual, Amoss is off to a fast start this year, winning at over 25% though he does the bulk of his winning on much smaller stages. Talamo has ridden in this just once since being named on the morning line favorite, I Want revenge, in 2009 before he scratched the morning of the race.
WORTH NOTING: Was sold after his debut by the majority owner of Far Right. His sire, Northern Afleet, sired 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex.
FAIR PRICE: Winless this season, his price will be higher than it should be. 30-1 is a good starting point but he’ll probably be higher.
TENCENDUR (5-1-1-1)
TRAINER: George Weaver (Debut)
JOCKEY: Manny Franco (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: He debuted going 1 mile and 70 yards over a course labeled good and finished third over the inner dirt at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: Broke his maiden against New York breds in the mud before finishing third to Far From Over, the same horse who won his debut race, in the G3 Withers. Blinkers were added and the money poured in when he finished fifth in the G3 Gotham but he woke up last out in the G1 Wood Memorial when he finished a solid second to Frosted.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 2 105 100
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 5th by 3 ¾ 90 82
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 4th by 4 91 89
CONNECTIONS: While both mare making their debuts here, Franco is making his way up the ranks of the jockey ranks in NY and Weaver has started this year by winning at over 20%.
WORTH NOTING: Weaver was one of Todd Pletcher’s first assistant trainers.
FAIR PRICE: The blinkers seemed to do the trick last out be he still needs to find some lengths and the top flight in here. You’ll be amply rewarded if he pulls it off, probably in the 35-1 range.
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (11 to 15)
ITSAKNOCKOUT (4-3-0-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: In his only start, Itsaknockout got up in a seven furlong maiden race to win by a nose.
THIS YEAR: Following an easy score in an allowance/optional claimer, Itsaknockout finished second in the G2 Fountain of Youth but was controversially elevated to first after getting carried out in the stretch by the winner, Upstart. Last out, he finished a lackluster fourth in the G1 Florida Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 21 82 76
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16miles, dirt, GP *2nd by 2 ¾ 91 88
Alw/opt cl, 1 mile, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¼ 102 92
CONNECTIONS: Super Saver gave Pletcher his lone Derby win five years ago while Saez has had no success in limited chances but did have a dynamite meet down at Gulfstream to start this season.
WORTH NOTING: This will be his first start outside of Gulfstream Park.
FAIR PRICE: He went from a perfect three for three, albeit by DQ and considered a major player to falling off of everyone’s radar after that last effort. He may still take some money because of Pletcher but you he should still be 30-1 or higher.
FIRING LINE (5-2-3-0)
TRAINER: Simon Callaghan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Finished second in his debut after breaking slowly at Santa Anita before breaking his maiden over the synthetic surface at Del Mar. He closed out his season with a gutsy runner-up finish to the undefeated Dortmund in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity after alternating on the lead through furious early fractions
THIS YEAR: It began as last year ended, with a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Dortmund in the G3 Robert Lewis, a race in which he opened up a length on Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied along the rail to nail him. Firing Line followed that up with a dominant score in the G3 Sunland Derby last out.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sunland Derby, 1 18 miles, dirt, SUN 1st by 14 ¼ 101 97
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by hd 100 104
Los Alamitos Futurity, 11/16 miles, dirt, LA 2nd by hd 97 91
CONNECTIONS: His trainer is making his debut and getting his first taste of the big time but should be able to lean on the old stalwart Stevens who won this in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch and in 1997 with Silver Charm.
WORTH NOTING: He’s the only entrant that will be running in here off of a six week gap between races. This will be his sixth career start over his fifth different surface.
FAIR PRICE: Widely considered the forgotten horse which usually mean he’ll get some attention and take some “wiseguy” money as the big day approaches. He should still be around 18-1.
DANZIG MOON (5-1-2-0)
TRAINER: Mark Casse (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Julien Leparoux (0 for 7)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A fourth place finish in his debut sprinting was followed up by a second place finish going a mile after he broke a bit slowly and a three month layoff.
THIS YEAR: An enthusiastic maiden tally off the bench at Gulfstream was followed by a non-descript fourth behind Carpe Diem in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He tried Carpe Diem again in the G1 Blue Grass last out and finished up a bit stronger to get place money.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 2nd by 3 99 90
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 4th by 12 ½ 81 76
Mdn spcl wt, 1 mile, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¾ 92 87
CONNECTIONS: For a guy that always seems to be on the Derby Trail, Casse has only run two horses in the race. Leparoux has had plenty of success in the Bluegrass State just not in this event.
WORTH NOTING: He’s a Canadian bred son of Malibu Moon, the same sire of 2013 Derby winner Orb.
FAIR PRICE: He’s won just one race so you automatically need to ask for 30-1 or so. But this guy is kind of popular, especially when people mention horses they’re using in their exotic wagers, so he may actually take more money than he should.
WAR STORY (5-2-2-1)
TRAINER: Tom Amoss (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Joe Talamo (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: Undefeated in two starts, he broke his maiden in a sprint at Churchill before being sold to his new connections. Stretched out to a mile and overcame some trouble at the break in his second start when he easily took an allowance/optional claimer at his winter home, the Fair Grounds.
THIS YEAR: Made the lead in deep stretch of the G3 LeComte before getting run down by International Star then finished second to him again in the G2 Risen Star after a wide journey. Last out, he raced a bit wide again in the G2 Louisiana Derby but failed to kick on through the stretch and finished third.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 3rd by 4 ½ 94 91
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 2nd by 1 96 91
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 2nd by 2 ½ 91 86
CONNECTIONS: As usual, Amoss is off to a fast start this year, winning at over 25% though he does the bulk of his winning on much smaller stages. Talamo has ridden in this just once since being named on the morning line favorite, I Want revenge, in 2009 before he scratched the morning of the race.
WORTH NOTING: Was sold after his debut by the majority owner of Far Right. His sire, Northern Afleet, sired 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex.
FAIR PRICE: Winless this season, his price will be higher than it should be. 30-1 is a good starting point but he’ll probably be higher.
TENCENDUR (5-1-1-1)
TRAINER: George Weaver (Debut)
JOCKEY: Manny Franco (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: He debuted going 1 mile and 70 yards over a course labeled good and finished third over the inner dirt at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: Broke his maiden against New York breds in the mud before finishing third to Far From Over, the same horse who won his debut race, in the G3 Withers. Blinkers were added and the money poured in when he finished fifth in the G3 Gotham but he woke up last out in the G1 Wood Memorial when he finished a solid second to Frosted.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 2 105 100
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 5th by 3 ¾ 90 82
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 4th by 4 91 89
CONNECTIONS: While both mare making their debuts here, Franco is making his way up the ranks of the jockey ranks in NY and Weaver has started this year by winning at over 20%.
WORTH NOTING: Weaver was one of Todd Pletcher’s first assistant trainers.
FAIR PRICE: The blinkers seemed to do the trick last out be he still needs to find some lengths and the top flight in here. You’ll be amply rewarded if he pulls it off, probably in the 35-1 range.
Derby Contenders - Part 4
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (16-20)
STANFORD (5-2-1-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Undecided
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Despite breaking poorly, Stanford won his debut in a five furlong sprint at Monmouth Park before finishing off the board after bobbling at the start of the G2 Saratoga Special in mid-August.
THIS YEAR: In his first start off of a six month layoff, Stanford defeated his stablemate Blame Jim in an allowance sprint at Gulfstream then finished second behind another stablemate, the undefeated Materiality, in the Islamorada at Gulfstream though he was disqualified and placed last of six after veering out down the backstretch. Last out he set the pace before grudgingly giving it up late to International Star in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt FG 2nd by nk 99 98
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP *2nd by 5 ¾ 94 93
Alw/opt cl, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 95 90
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher’s lone Derby win came in 2010 with Super Saver and he has yet to name a rider for this colt. Florent Geroux rode him in his latest while Joe Bravo broke his maiden.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb.
FAIR PRICE: Another “Pletcher at a price” play for those that subscribe to that theory as he’ll likely be north of 30-1.
MR. Z (12-1-4-4)
TRAINER: D Wayne Lukas (4 for 47)
JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He ran a race-high eight times in 2014. A debut maiden win at Churchill was followed by a campaign in which he ran in seven consecutive graded stakes at six different racetracks. He was second in the G3 Sanford, G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta jackpot, where he missed by a nose and third by a head in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Dortmund and Firing Line
THIS YEAR: Looked home free in the Smarty Jones before veering out through the stretch to wind up third, tired in deep stretch after setting the pace when third in the G3 Southwest and was a well beaten third in the G1 Arkansas Derby last out behind stablemate American Pharoah.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 3rd by 8 ¾ 92 90
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 9th by 20 ¾ 76 64
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 3rd by ¾ 92 90
CONNECTIONS: Talk about opposite ends of the spectrum: Lukas has won four of these, in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch, in 1996 with Grindstone and in 1999 with Charismatic while his jockey Vazquez is making his debut.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb. His owner, Zayat Stables, will likely have three Derby entrants. He is the only horse in the field with more than nine starts.
FAIR PRICE: Remember, it’s the Derby, so he won’t be coupled with the other Zayats, which is good news if you’re a fan since he’ll be 35-1 or so.
OCHO OCHO OCHO (5-3-0-1)
TRAINER: Jim Cassidy (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Elvis Trujillo (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts in the span of 43 days and won them all. After breaking his maiden he took the off the turf Juvenile Turf Stakes at Santa Anita on Breeders’ Cup weekend before shipping to Delta Downs to win the G3 Delta Jackpot by a desperate nose from outside post 10.
THIS YEAR: In his first start in over three months, he basically lost all chance when he was bothered coming out of the gate and through the first turn of the G2 San Felipe. He got to the top in the G1 Blue Grass last out but offered little resistance when Carpe Diem confronted him on the turn and eventually finished third.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 3rd by 5 ½ 96 86
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 8th by 15 ½ 83 76
Delta Jackpot, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, DeD 1st by ns 101 90
CONNECTIONS: Cassidy has won his share of big races but is limited in his grandest stage appearances while Trujillo is riding this horse for the first time, though he has been working with him in the mornings.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Street Sense, won the Derby in 2007.
FAIR PRICE: 40-1 is about right.
BOLO (5-2-0-2)
TRAINER: Carla Gaines (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Rafael Bejarano (0 for 9)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts, all on the turf. A fifth place finish in his debut was followed by a pair of dominant scores against maidens and in the Eddie Logan. THIS YEAR: Coming off of a 10 week layoff, Bolo finished third in the San Felipe, his dirt debut, after taking a serious run at Dortmund on the far turn and losing second in the final strides. He raced wide last out and appeared to be spinning his wheels through the stretch but did manage to get the show dough in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 3rd by 6 ½ 98 95
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 3rd by 1 ¾ 100 101
Eddie Logan, 1 mile, turf, SA 1st by 4 ½ 102 88
CONNECTIONS: Gaines is looking to become the first female trainer to win the Derby while Bejarano, one of the leading riders in California perennially, hasn’t had much look in this and will be riding this horse for the first time.
WORTH NOTING: His former rider Mike Smith and Gaines both seem to think this colt is better on turf than dirt.
FAIR PRICE: With that said, he hasn’t gotten beat all that far by Dortmund so he may take some action but should still be over 25-1.
KEEN ICE (7-1-0-2)
TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Kent Desormeaux (3 for 18)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill in the second start of his career. He finished fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before a third place finish to close out the year in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: Started the year in the G2 Holy Bull over a historically speed biased Gulfstream Park surface. Finished a hard-charging third in the G2 Risen Star before mustering just a fourth place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 4th by 6 ¾ 92 87
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 3rd by 2 ¾ 94 88
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 5th by 10 ½ 92 87
CONNECTIONS: A Kentucky boy, Romans has yet to fulfill his childhood dreams of winning the roses in five previous tries while Desormeaux has won three, with Real Quiet in 1998, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Big Brown in 2008.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Curlin, was third in the 2007 Derby before winning the Preakness and finishing second in the Belmont.
FAIR PRICE: His late running style has gotten him some fans so he might not be as high as one would think. 30-1 is about right.
FRAMMETO (7-1-1-1) - Will enter as AE (Also Eligible)
TRAINER: Nick Zito (2 for 25)
JOCKEY: Undecided
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Well-regarded since his fourth place debut, Frammento broke his maiden in his two turn debut at Keeneland in his second start but was winless in two starts after that.
THIS YEAR: After starting the year with a poor effort in the G2 Holy Bull, the addition of blinkers seemed to have helped, as evident by a third place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was the only one running at the end and his fourth place finish along the inside in the G1 Blue Grass last out.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 4th by 7 ¼ 94 83
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 3rd by 4 ½ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 6th by 18 ¾ 83 72
CONNECTIONS: Zito, who won this in 1991 with big closer Strike the Gold and with the front running Go For Gin in 1994, is waiting to see who, if anyone, defects before naming a rider.
WORTH NOTING: As of Monday, April 27, Frammento still needs a defection to draw into the body of the field. Zito has been training him with the assumption that he would get into the field.
FAIR PRICE: He may be the longest price on the board if he gets in at over 35-1.
This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!
Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned (16-20)
STANFORD (5-2-1-0)
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Undecided
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Despite breaking poorly, Stanford won his debut in a five furlong sprint at Monmouth Park before finishing off the board after bobbling at the start of the G2 Saratoga Special in mid-August.
THIS YEAR: In his first start off of a six month layoff, Stanford defeated his stablemate Blame Jim in an allowance sprint at Gulfstream then finished second behind another stablemate, the undefeated Materiality, in the Islamorada at Gulfstream though he was disqualified and placed last of six after veering out down the backstretch. Last out he set the pace before grudgingly giving it up late to International Star in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt FG 2nd by nk 99 98
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP *2nd by 5 ¾ 94 93
Alw/opt cl, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 95 90
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher’s lone Derby win came in 2010 with Super Saver and he has yet to name a rider for this colt. Florent Geroux rode him in his latest while Joe Bravo broke his maiden.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb.
FAIR PRICE: Another “Pletcher at a price” play for those that subscribe to that theory as he’ll likely be north of 30-1.
MR. Z (12-1-4-4)
TRAINER: D Wayne Lukas (4 for 47)
JOCKEY: Ramon Vazquez (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He ran a race-high eight times in 2014. A debut maiden win at Churchill was followed by a campaign in which he ran in seven consecutive graded stakes at six different racetracks. He was second in the G3 Sanford, G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta jackpot, where he missed by a nose and third by a head in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity behind Dortmund and Firing Line
THIS YEAR: Looked home free in the Smarty Jones before veering out through the stretch to wind up third, tired in deep stretch after setting the pace when third in the G3 Southwest and was a well beaten third in the G1 Arkansas Derby last out behind stablemate American Pharoah.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 3rd by 8 ¾ 92 90
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 9th by 20 ¾ 76 64
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 3rd by ¾ 92 90
CONNECTIONS: Talk about opposite ends of the spectrum: Lukas has won four of these, in 1988 with Winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch, in 1996 with Grindstone and in 1999 with Charismatic while his jockey Vazquez is making his debut.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Malibu Moon, sired 2013 Derby winner Orb. His owner, Zayat Stables, will likely have three Derby entrants. He is the only horse in the field with more than nine starts.
FAIR PRICE: Remember, it’s the Derby, so he won’t be coupled with the other Zayats, which is good news if you’re a fan since he’ll be 35-1 or so.
OCHO OCHO OCHO (5-3-0-1)
TRAINER: Jim Cassidy (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Elvis Trujillo (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts in the span of 43 days and won them all. After breaking his maiden he took the off the turf Juvenile Turf Stakes at Santa Anita on Breeders’ Cup weekend before shipping to Delta Downs to win the G3 Delta Jackpot by a desperate nose from outside post 10.
THIS YEAR: In his first start in over three months, he basically lost all chance when he was bothered coming out of the gate and through the first turn of the G2 San Felipe. He got to the top in the G1 Blue Grass last out but offered little resistance when Carpe Diem confronted him on the turn and eventually finished third.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 3rd by 5 ½ 96 86
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 8th by 15 ½ 83 76
Delta Jackpot, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, DeD 1st by ns 101 90
CONNECTIONS: Cassidy has won his share of big races but is limited in his grandest stage appearances while Trujillo is riding this horse for the first time, though he has been working with him in the mornings.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Street Sense, won the Derby in 2007.
FAIR PRICE: 40-1 is about right.
BOLO (5-2-0-2)
TRAINER: Carla Gaines (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Rafael Bejarano (0 for 9)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: He made three starts, all on the turf. A fifth place finish in his debut was followed by a pair of dominant scores against maidens and in the Eddie Logan. THIS YEAR: Coming off of a 10 week layoff, Bolo finished third in the San Felipe, his dirt debut, after taking a serious run at Dortmund on the far turn and losing second in the final strides. He raced wide last out and appeared to be spinning his wheels through the stretch but did manage to get the show dough in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 3rd by 6 ½ 98 95
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 3rd by 1 ¾ 100 101
Eddie Logan, 1 mile, turf, SA 1st by 4 ½ 102 88
CONNECTIONS: Gaines is looking to become the first female trainer to win the Derby while Bejarano, one of the leading riders in California perennially, hasn’t had much look in this and will be riding this horse for the first time.
WORTH NOTING: His former rider Mike Smith and Gaines both seem to think this colt is better on turf than dirt.
FAIR PRICE: With that said, he hasn’t gotten beat all that far by Dortmund so he may take some action but should still be over 25-1.
KEEN ICE (7-1-0-2)
TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Kent Desormeaux (3 for 18)
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill in the second start of his career. He finished fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before a third place finish to close out the year in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct.
THIS YEAR: Started the year in the G2 Holy Bull over a historically speed biased Gulfstream Park surface. Finished a hard-charging third in the G2 Risen Star before mustering just a fourth place finish in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 4th by 6 ¾ 92 87
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 3rd by 2 ¾ 94 88
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 5th by 10 ½ 92 87
CONNECTIONS: A Kentucky boy, Romans has yet to fulfill his childhood dreams of winning the roses in five previous tries while Desormeaux has won three, with Real Quiet in 1998, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Big Brown in 2008.
WORTH NOTING: His sire, Curlin, was third in the 2007 Derby before winning the Preakness and finishing second in the Belmont.
FAIR PRICE: His late running style has gotten him some fans so he might not be as high as one would think. 30-1 is about right.
FRAMMETO (7-1-1-1) - Will enter as AE (Also Eligible)
TRAINER: Nick Zito (2 for 25)
JOCKEY: Undecided
RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.
AS A JUVENILE: Well-regarded since his fourth place debut, Frammento broke his maiden in his two turn debut at Keeneland in his second start but was winless in two starts after that.
THIS YEAR: After starting the year with a poor effort in the G2 Holy Bull, the addition of blinkers seemed to have helped, as evident by a third place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was the only one running at the end and his fourth place finish along the inside in the G1 Blue Grass last out.
BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 4th by 7 ¼ 94 83
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 3rd by 4 ½ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 6th by 18 ¾ 83 72
CONNECTIONS: Zito, who won this in 1991 with big closer Strike the Gold and with the front running Go For Gin in 1994, is waiting to see who, if anyone, defects before naming a rider.
WORTH NOTING: As of Monday, April 27, Frammento still needs a defection to draw into the body of the field. Zito has been training him with the assumption that he would get into the field.
FAIR PRICE: He may be the longest price on the board if he gets in at over 35-1.
Zayat takes aim at Derby with 3 horses
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Ahmed Zayat can't contain his enthusiasm at having three horses running in the Kentucky Derby. The fast-talking Egyptian businessman is alternately nervous, hopeful and tickled pink.
''Hyper'' is how trainer Bob Baffert describes his client, whose American Pharoah is expected to be the early favorite for Saturday's 141st Run for the Roses.
Listening to Zayat's bubbly chatter, there's no hint of the run of bad luck he's endured at the Derby. Three times his horses have finished second behind long shots.
In 2009, 50-1 Mine That Bird sneaked up along the rail and beat Pioneerof the Nile. In 2011, Nehro was defeated by 20-1 Animal Kingdom. A year later, 15-1 I'll Have Another beat Bodemeister.
Baffert can count two of those losses among his Derby defeats, having trained Pioneerof the Nile and Bodemeister.
''Luckily they run the Derby every year,'' he said.
Zayat had a double-dose of bad luck in 2010. His early Derby favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn days before the race with a leg injury and he filed for bankruptcy protection to keep his racing operation afloat after a bank claimed he defaulted on $34 million in loans.
Baffert has won the race three times, but not since 2002. He's been training for Zayat since 2007, becoming close friends while enduring the sport's ups and downs together. They exchange calls or text messages ''like 10 times a day,'' Zayat said.
''We know the game. It changes every second and every time he calls me my heart sinks for 30 seconds,'' the owner said, knowing it could be bad news about his horses.
Zayat took his first crack at the Derby in 2008, when Z Fortune finished 10th and Z Humor was 14th.
Now 52, he retired 10 years ago, having sold his beer distributorship to Heineken for $280 million and plowed the proceeds into buying more horses. His love of the sport is a family affair, with Justin, one of his four children, acting as racing manager for Zayat Stables.
''He has a lot of passion,'' Baffert said. ''The clients that have a lot of passion, those are the best clients because they really want to do well. They invest a lot of time along with money. It's like owning their own team. They're very competitive, which is good. It's a trainer's dream to have clients like that.''
The sport has taught the ultra-competitive Zayat a tough lesson: You may win at a 25 percent clip, but 75 percent of the time you're going to lose. ''The first orientation is getting adjusted to being competitive and yet needing to turn the page and move on.''
Baffert is in the unusual position of training the probable favorite and second choice this year. He's got American Pharoah for Zayat, who lives in Teaneck, New Jersey, and undefeated Dortmund for India-born owner Kaleem Shah.
''Hope for a dead-heat,'' the white-haired trainer joked.
Zayat has a close-up view of American Pharoah's biggest rival every time he visits his colt at Baffert's barn. Dortmund is housed in a nearby stall.
''I have tremendous respect for Dortmund, I have tremendous appreciation for Mr. Shah,'' Zayat said. ''He's put a lot of money into the game. He's also passionate. If it's not going to be me (winning), it's going to be someone else.''
Baffert refuses to choose between American Pharoah and Dortmund, comparing it to a parent asked to pick a favorite child.
Zayat has no such problem with his trio.
He is unabashedly partial to American Pharoah, the product of Zayat's first breeding attempt between sire Pioneerof the Nile and dam Littleprincessemma, named for one of his daughters.
''Sentimentally, I like him more,'' he said of the colt named by a fan through a contest on the family's website.
The brown colt with the unusually short tail - another horse chewed the end of it off on the farm - is coming off an eight-length win in the Arkansas Derby.
''From day one, he's been an absolute superstar,'' Zayat said.
Son Justin favors El Kabeir because he spends so much time in New York with the horse. The name translates to the boss, and it's how the elder Zayat's father is addressed by the family. The colt is trained by John Terranova, although he's also staying in Baffert's barn.
His third horse, Mr. Z, is named for Zayat, but not by choice. His four children submitted the name without him knowing because he thinks it's ''corny'' to name horses after yourself. Mr. Z is trained by four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. The chestnut colt is the most experienced among the 20-horse field, having raced 12 times with just one victory but nine in-the-money finishes.
So it's try, try, try again for Zayat at the Derby.
''If you love it, you keep coming to the well,'' he said.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Ahmed Zayat can't contain his enthusiasm at having three horses running in the Kentucky Derby. The fast-talking Egyptian businessman is alternately nervous, hopeful and tickled pink.
''Hyper'' is how trainer Bob Baffert describes his client, whose American Pharoah is expected to be the early favorite for Saturday's 141st Run for the Roses.
Listening to Zayat's bubbly chatter, there's no hint of the run of bad luck he's endured at the Derby. Three times his horses have finished second behind long shots.
In 2009, 50-1 Mine That Bird sneaked up along the rail and beat Pioneerof the Nile. In 2011, Nehro was defeated by 20-1 Animal Kingdom. A year later, 15-1 I'll Have Another beat Bodemeister.
Baffert can count two of those losses among his Derby defeats, having trained Pioneerof the Nile and Bodemeister.
''Luckily they run the Derby every year,'' he said.
Zayat had a double-dose of bad luck in 2010. His early Derby favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn days before the race with a leg injury and he filed for bankruptcy protection to keep his racing operation afloat after a bank claimed he defaulted on $34 million in loans.
Baffert has won the race three times, but not since 2002. He's been training for Zayat since 2007, becoming close friends while enduring the sport's ups and downs together. They exchange calls or text messages ''like 10 times a day,'' Zayat said.
''We know the game. It changes every second and every time he calls me my heart sinks for 30 seconds,'' the owner said, knowing it could be bad news about his horses.
Zayat took his first crack at the Derby in 2008, when Z Fortune finished 10th and Z Humor was 14th.
Now 52, he retired 10 years ago, having sold his beer distributorship to Heineken for $280 million and plowed the proceeds into buying more horses. His love of the sport is a family affair, with Justin, one of his four children, acting as racing manager for Zayat Stables.
''He has a lot of passion,'' Baffert said. ''The clients that have a lot of passion, those are the best clients because they really want to do well. They invest a lot of time along with money. It's like owning their own team. They're very competitive, which is good. It's a trainer's dream to have clients like that.''
The sport has taught the ultra-competitive Zayat a tough lesson: You may win at a 25 percent clip, but 75 percent of the time you're going to lose. ''The first orientation is getting adjusted to being competitive and yet needing to turn the page and move on.''
Baffert is in the unusual position of training the probable favorite and second choice this year. He's got American Pharoah for Zayat, who lives in Teaneck, New Jersey, and undefeated Dortmund for India-born owner Kaleem Shah.
''Hope for a dead-heat,'' the white-haired trainer joked.
Zayat has a close-up view of American Pharoah's biggest rival every time he visits his colt at Baffert's barn. Dortmund is housed in a nearby stall.
''I have tremendous respect for Dortmund, I have tremendous appreciation for Mr. Shah,'' Zayat said. ''He's put a lot of money into the game. He's also passionate. If it's not going to be me (winning), it's going to be someone else.''
Baffert refuses to choose between American Pharoah and Dortmund, comparing it to a parent asked to pick a favorite child.
Zayat has no such problem with his trio.
He is unabashedly partial to American Pharoah, the product of Zayat's first breeding attempt between sire Pioneerof the Nile and dam Littleprincessemma, named for one of his daughters.
''Sentimentally, I like him more,'' he said of the colt named by a fan through a contest on the family's website.
The brown colt with the unusually short tail - another horse chewed the end of it off on the farm - is coming off an eight-length win in the Arkansas Derby.
''From day one, he's been an absolute superstar,'' Zayat said.
Son Justin favors El Kabeir because he spends so much time in New York with the horse. The name translates to the boss, and it's how the elder Zayat's father is addressed by the family. The colt is trained by John Terranova, although he's also staying in Baffert's barn.
His third horse, Mr. Z, is named for Zayat, but not by choice. His four children submitted the name without him knowing because he thinks it's ''corny'' to name horses after yourself. Mr. Z is trained by four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. The chestnut colt is the most experienced among the 20-horse field, having raced 12 times with just one victory but nine in-the-money finishes.
So it's try, try, try again for Zayat at the Derby.
''If you love it, you keep coming to the well,'' he said.
Courtesy of Kevin Cox
Race 11
1. Mubtaahij ( Ire )
2. International Star
3.Materiality
4.Dortmund
5. El Kabeir
Well here it is, the granddaddy of them all---The Kentucky Derby. You know, when you do this for a living, your first goal is to always make a dollar. However with this race, there's a certain amount of pride in getting the winner ( or even a nice priced runner up ! ). On a personal note, our winners over the last 25 years have been Strike The Gold ( 1991-$11 ), War Emblem ( 2002-$43 ) and Funny Cide ( 2003-$28 ). Cool thing about that last one is that just this past year, I ended up becoming good friends with 'Cide's owner, nice guy, Jack Knowlton. ( Amazing how things come full circle in this game. ). Well, by looking at those prices above, and for those that read me on a regular basis, it's pretty fair to say that I look for a nice number whenever possible. This year is the deepest field I think I've ever seen in my lifetime, and unlike Derby's in years gone by, where many runners are hardly heard from again, I believe you'll be hearing a whole hell of a lot from the majority of these throughout this year and next. Okay, now to quote R. Lee Ermey from 'Full Metal Jacket', let's "Hit it, sweetheart !" ...... The connections of the #6 MUBTAAHIJ are endeavouring to set some trends with a win in this years run for the roses in looking to become the first: Irish bred/Saudi Based/South African trained/French ridden animal to win the worlds greatest race. DeCock is doing it in thoroughly unconventional style---sans Lasix. Now, while there have in fact been winners of this race that didn't use the drug, it's extremely avante garde to attempt to do such a thing. I say that because the use of it has become so farcical that you can have a full field of unraced 2 year olds at Saratoga, or the best on the planet in the Breeders' Cup, and they'll mostly ALL be using the stuff, which is a crock, as they're not all bleeders, but it "helps 'em run faster". Whatever. Additionally, this colt that is just a noggin' shy of a perfect 5 for 5 dirt record, trains without shoes ! ( How cool is that ! ) He'll reportedly be shod the morning of the race. Okay, neat factoids aside, why do we like the animal ? Well, the 8 length win in Dubai was visually impressive, he's the only entrant to have run ( and won ) at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, he is battle tested ( faced an average field size of 10.1 in his career, and just Keen Ice has faced more ), been looking great in the mornings, boasts the highest Tomlinson at this distance ( by 30 points, which is substantial ), and if you still are a beliver in the Dosage theory ( which I have no problem looking at ), is one of 7 in here that fit the parameters. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the door ! ) his style of racing is perfectly suited for how I believe the race will set up. Half this field were no farther back than 3 lengths at the first point of call in their most recent start, and with 20 horses signed on, I'm envisioning a glut of runners gunning for position early. Now look at the race comments for our top choice: "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders". Get the point ? This horse can allow himself to be put wherever the pilot wants him ( and who's better than riding covered up, but European jockeys ? ) and patiently wait for that ( inevitable ) daylight late. I'm diggin' the scene at 20-1, you hep cats ! Well, as we just gave a "multi-country" analogy a few sentences back, it's only apropos that the #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR will be our next selection. This chap has been extremely professional of late, and just take a gander at those adjusted ascending Beyers, will ya ? --- 84.7--88.1--91.5--96. That's basically a 4% increase in each of those starts, and if it were to occur again, than a 100 or so would put this one in the hunt. Definitely a New York Bred worth rooting for ( and tossing a couple of fazools on ). I've kinda flip flopped my 3rd and 4th selections from a radio interview I did earlier today, so full disclosure here. If there were ever anybody that could get the most out of a speed horse in a field laden with speed---ever a jockey that you should not discount on an undefeated animal at 12-1---that would be Javier Castellano on the #3 MATERIALITY. The numbers are most definitely going in the right direction, and if Dortmund stubs his hoof, and American Pharoah not dig being in a different zip code, well then, hey nowwwwww...... As a numbers guy, obviously I love the #8 DORTMUND, and what's not to like ? He's powerful, beautiful, and BIG. But therein lies the rub. He's big. The biggest horse in the field with legs like a giraffe is more likely to run into some trouble with the other 76 legs on the track, no ? Plus, what about his own gams ? What if he doesn't get a chance to unfurl those big, beautiful things like he wants to ? Listen, don't get me wrong, I'll be using this fella in my rollers, and if he wins, I'll most definitely tip my cowboy hat to him. But at 3-1 ? Nah. For super hi-5 purposes, we'll slide the #7 El KABEIR in there, due to the noticeable change in tactics in the last two outings, as well as a switch from C.C. Lopez to Calvin Borel, which at this trip, is akin to a 5 pound break. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has never broken farther out than the 6 hole ( has the 17 chute today ), will not get an easy lead, and ( for whatever it's worth ) doesn't fit on Dosage. Take 5-2 or less on this horse ? Not with a potato gun to my head.
Race 11
1. Mubtaahij ( Ire )
2. International Star
3.Materiality
4.Dortmund
5. El Kabeir
Well here it is, the granddaddy of them all---The Kentucky Derby. You know, when you do this for a living, your first goal is to always make a dollar. However with this race, there's a certain amount of pride in getting the winner ( or even a nice priced runner up ! ). On a personal note, our winners over the last 25 years have been Strike The Gold ( 1991-$11 ), War Emblem ( 2002-$43 ) and Funny Cide ( 2003-$28 ). Cool thing about that last one is that just this past year, I ended up becoming good friends with 'Cide's owner, nice guy, Jack Knowlton. ( Amazing how things come full circle in this game. ). Well, by looking at those prices above, and for those that read me on a regular basis, it's pretty fair to say that I look for a nice number whenever possible. This year is the deepest field I think I've ever seen in my lifetime, and unlike Derby's in years gone by, where many runners are hardly heard from again, I believe you'll be hearing a whole hell of a lot from the majority of these throughout this year and next. Okay, now to quote R. Lee Ermey from 'Full Metal Jacket', let's "Hit it, sweetheart !" ...... The connections of the #6 MUBTAAHIJ are endeavouring to set some trends with a win in this years run for the roses in looking to become the first: Irish bred/Saudi Based/South African trained/French ridden animal to win the worlds greatest race. DeCock is doing it in thoroughly unconventional style---sans Lasix. Now, while there have in fact been winners of this race that didn't use the drug, it's extremely avante garde to attempt to do such a thing. I say that because the use of it has become so farcical that you can have a full field of unraced 2 year olds at Saratoga, or the best on the planet in the Breeders' Cup, and they'll mostly ALL be using the stuff, which is a crock, as they're not all bleeders, but it "helps 'em run faster". Whatever. Additionally, this colt that is just a noggin' shy of a perfect 5 for 5 dirt record, trains without shoes ! ( How cool is that ! ) He'll reportedly be shod the morning of the race. Okay, neat factoids aside, why do we like the animal ? Well, the 8 length win in Dubai was visually impressive, he's the only entrant to have run ( and won ) at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, he is battle tested ( faced an average field size of 10.1 in his career, and just Keen Ice has faced more ), been looking great in the mornings, boasts the highest Tomlinson at this distance ( by 30 points, which is substantial ), and if you still are a beliver in the Dosage theory ( which I have no problem looking at ), is one of 7 in here that fit the parameters. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the door ! ) his style of racing is perfectly suited for how I believe the race will set up. Half this field were no farther back than 3 lengths at the first point of call in their most recent start, and with 20 horses signed on, I'm envisioning a glut of runners gunning for position early. Now look at the race comments for our top choice: "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders". Get the point ? This horse can allow himself to be put wherever the pilot wants him ( and who's better than riding covered up, but European jockeys ? ) and patiently wait for that ( inevitable ) daylight late. I'm diggin' the scene at 20-1, you hep cats ! Well, as we just gave a "multi-country" analogy a few sentences back, it's only apropos that the #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR will be our next selection. This chap has been extremely professional of late, and just take a gander at those adjusted ascending Beyers, will ya ? --- 84.7--88.1--91.5--96. That's basically a 4% increase in each of those starts, and if it were to occur again, than a 100 or so would put this one in the hunt. Definitely a New York Bred worth rooting for ( and tossing a couple of fazools on ). I've kinda flip flopped my 3rd and 4th selections from a radio interview I did earlier today, so full disclosure here. If there were ever anybody that could get the most out of a speed horse in a field laden with speed---ever a jockey that you should not discount on an undefeated animal at 12-1---that would be Javier Castellano on the #3 MATERIALITY. The numbers are most definitely going in the right direction, and if Dortmund stubs his hoof, and American Pharoah not dig being in a different zip code, well then, hey nowwwwww...... As a numbers guy, obviously I love the #8 DORTMUND, and what's not to like ? He's powerful, beautiful, and BIG. But therein lies the rub. He's big. The biggest horse in the field with legs like a giraffe is more likely to run into some trouble with the other 76 legs on the track, no ? Plus, what about his own gams ? What if he doesn't get a chance to unfurl those big, beautiful things like he wants to ? Listen, don't get me wrong, I'll be using this fella in my rollers, and if he wins, I'll most definitely tip my cowboy hat to him. But at 3-1 ? Nah. For super hi-5 purposes, we'll slide the #7 El KABEIR in there, due to the noticeable change in tactics in the last two outings, as well as a switch from C.C. Lopez to Calvin Borel, which at this trip, is akin to a 5 pound break. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has never broken farther out than the 6 hole ( has the 17 chute today ), will not get an easy lead, and ( for whatever it's worth ) doesn't fit on Dosage. Take 5-2 or less on this horse ? Not with a potato gun to my head.
WIZARD'S 2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
Page 1 of 18
Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He isvery fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial. Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the WoodMemorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop. McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over 40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-oldcampaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror. With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
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who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
Page 1 of 18
Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He isvery fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial. Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the WoodMemorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop. McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over 40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-oldcampaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror. With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
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who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
From : Horse Racing Gold
Kentucky Derby time again!
The first Kentucky Derby was run in 1875 – and since that beginning, through major world wars, and the Great Depression, and whatever . . . there has never been a missed running. What a great American tradition it really is. In my opinion it is under appreciated and should be a national holiday (!) . . . well - maybe that’s going a little too far?!
This is the third year of the new 'points system' for qualification into the
Derby. Coincidentally, in both of the previous two years, the Derby was won by the points total leader (this year that horse is International Star).
The 2015 three year old crop is shaping up to be an exceptional one. I don’t think Secretariat’s 1:59:4 record time will be threatened, but it should be a dynamite renewal of the Run For The Roses!
When betting decision time comes: Most of us – at least the old-timers anyway – would love to see another Secretariat, another Seattle Slew – even another Spectacular Bid. For a true lover of the game, that is only natural . . . but those hopes and/or prejudices need to be put aside when it comes time to lay the money down. As always value is the key.
Trends:
The thing about trends is that they are right . . . until they are wrong! But in the Derby – there is money to be made regardless.
- The main trend of note in recent decades of the Derby had been the very low percentage of winning favorites. In the previous 33 years (1980 through 2012), the favorite had won the Derby only 4 times! But then the last two years were won by favorites, Orb in 2013 (but was at a very acceptable 5/1 – and keyed a huge exacta of $982), and California Chrome last year (and still again the exacta paid a respectable $340 with the Trifecta paying $3400+).
Thunder Gulch at $51, Charismatic at $64.6, War Emblem at $43, Giacomo at $102.6, Mine That Bird at $103.2, Super Saver at $43.8, and I'll Have Another at $32.6.
That's what makes the Derby so much fun, and so potentially rewarding. - Another trend is recency . . .
In general, horses do well by racing into condition - particularly in the marquee races. Now, of course, this isn't always true - top trainers can bring horse up to an important race off a training regimen alone (the late, great Bobby Frankel was a master of that). However, there is a long-standing stat/fact: since 1956, no horse has won a Derby without having a prep race in the previous 6-weeks. But - when Animal Kingdom won three years ago, he was only one-day shy of having been off 6 weeks (after resting off the Dubai trip), so that trend, for all practical purposes, essentially ended that year.
And anyway, only Firing Line is pushing that envelope this year – also having been off one day shy of 6 weeks since his win in the Sunland Derby on March 23.
- Another extremely long-standing stat is that of Derby winners having raced as two year olds. That trend has been going since 1882 (!) Horses just don’t win the Derby without having raced as a 2-yr old. This is the so-called "Apollo's Curse" (the name of the last horse to accomplish it). Highly respected Florida Derby winner, Materiality, fits that ultra-negative profile this year – and he comes in with the highest last race Beyer . . . quite a dilemma for the trends watchers.
- No horse has won the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in its prior start since Iron Liege, who was fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial. This year that negative stat applies only to “just off the bubble” horses, Bold Conquest, and Toasting Master neither of whom will likely get into the race.
Prep Races:
I've always been of the opinion that, in order to seriously consider for the win spot in the Derby - the horse should have won or placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race at over a mile distance as a 3 year old.
This year, I’d downgrade; El Kabeir, Firing Line, Mr. Z, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Bolo, and Keen Ice for having not done so.
Beyer Numbers:
There is somewhat of a trend going here as well;
- a. They seem to be less and less an important factor, and
- b. They had been getting lower each year in recent years. Formerly, a horse needed a 105 or better in one of the major preps - but those kinds of figures have been rare as hen’s teeth in recent years.
However, last year’s winner, California Chrome did sport the highest Beyer – a 107 (the only horse in the field with a 105 or greater), and this year’s good crop has four that have cracked that coveted 105 number; American Pharoah with a 105, Dortmund with a 106, Upstart with a 108, and Materiality with a 110.
Pace:
Overall - the Derby is only rarely won by a dedicated front-running type. There are so many runners trying so hard - that the 'slow-'em-down-and-steal-it-on-the*lead' type race (which is very common in day-to-day racing) just doesn't happen in the Derby. Anecdotally: I had a big bet on War Emblem in 2002 when he took them wire-to-wire, but he wasn't a “need-to-lead” type, and he could have as easily run from off the pace and still have won it - as he was much the best that day.
In normal racing, around 60 percent of races are won by horses that are positioned among the front 3 at the first call. In the Derby that figure drops to around 20 percent.
When the speedballs do go at each other - then on occasion a deep closer type will come in, but the overall best profile for this particular race is a mid-pack runner that can stay in touch with the leaders and have something left for the
stretch - preferably with tactical speed that has a "push button" aspect to it so as to help get and maintain position while avoiding traffic problems.
And now - as a result of the new points system for qualification into the race – since none of the allowed qualifying races are sprints, sprint type speed horses have necessarily disappeared. No more can a couple of high-purse value wins at the shorter distances get a horse into the Derby. The proverbial "melt-down" race where the pace completely falls apart will from now on (I would think) be a rarer occurrence.
Early Pace:
The unfolding of the pace this year should be very interesting – as several of the good ones have natural early foot and can run at a high ‘cruising speed.’ The runners who have been pace setters in previous Graded stakes races are;
- Dortmund: Wired field in both of last two races.
- American Pharoah: Will very likely also try (with any kind of decent break), to press the pace setter/s closely.
- Materiality: Was only a head off the leader at the start in the Florid Derby, but soon took over.
- Firing Line: Wired the field at Sunland Derby in last, but was running a couple lengths off Dortmund at the first call in the previous race.
- Stanford: Led all the way in both of his previous two.
Pace pressers and mid-pack runners:
Racing Luck always plays a part in the Derby. There will be bumping and jostling – some will be squeezed off (often more than once), and have to take up – some will get behind horses and have nowhere to run – this is the Derby. Those in here who like to run a pressing to mid-pack style are; Carpe Diem, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Upstart, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, and Itsaknockout.
Late Pace:
Far Right would like to secure a position just behind the mid pack group but from post 20 his options are gone – he’ll likely drop out the back and set up for one long, tough late run through or around traffic. International Star can close well, and Keen Ice will be lagging back, but very unlikely to threaten the top markers with his closing kick.
Pace summation:
Andy Beyer quoted a very pertinent stat before last year’s Derby: Since 1986, the first half mile has been run in less than 46 seconds - eight times. In each of those years, stretch-runners have prevailed, most of them coming from far, far behind. Watch the half-mile time as the race unfolds – you’ll have a good indication of your horse’s chances.
American Pharoah ran a 45[SUP]1[/SUP] at 7f when winning the Del Mar Futurity as a 2 yr old, and he pressed a 45[SUP]4[/SUP] in his last – the Arkansas Derby, so he can go that fast should he want to, but I really don’t think his connections will want to. Firing Line zipped a 45[SUP]1[/SUP] in the Los Alamitos Futurity and held on for a head loss to Dortmund – then in his last he went 45[SUP]1[/SUP] while winning the Sunland Derby wire-to-wire . . . he just might want to try those kinds of blazing fractions today as his only real hope to win it.
The post position draw has made the early part of the race even more interesting. The inside two horses, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Carpe Diem both have the ability to run early – and will have to use that speed today. Materiality in post 3 also has early foot, so there may be a “mad scramble” to get clear position inside - but . . .
Speedy Dortmund is in post 8, Firing Line will likely be blasting from post 10, and quick American Pharoah will have them all in his view from post 18. If any of these last mentioned three get out and start moving over towards the rail – it could set up a squeeze on some or all of those inside three.
Workouts Leading Up to Derby Day:
· El Kabeir – whipped out a sprightly 46:7 4f work at Belmont on Saturday before Derby
· Dortmund – His final work was a 6f cruise in 1:13:6 at Santa Anita before boarding the plane for Lexington – he had already worked a sharp 5f in 58:8 on the 18th
· American Pharoah – He worked in his usual very fast mode – zipping 5f in an effortless 58:2 at Cd where he in no way appeared to be going that fast. He reeled of 4 sub-12 splits, ran the last 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in :12 flat, and then and galloped out strong without any urging during the entire work!
· Firing Line – Ran a relatively slow 5f in 1:02:2 at Sa on Saturday before flying out to Kentucky on Sunday (but then he has such natural speed – connections might not want him too sharp)
· Far Right – his work on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] appeared just a bit dull, and the horse was hard to control
· Carpe Diem – Strong workman-like final workout on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] – 5f in 1:01:2 – Pletcher said it was just what he wanted
· Upstart – Had a strong final 5f prep work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] at Palm Meadows – going in 1:00:2
· Materiality – Has looked good in all his Derby works – had a 5f in 1:01:08 at Cd then an easy appearing 4f final work in 48:0 on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] - appears to be liking the surroundings
· Mr. Z – his work on the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] drew less than encouraged comments from both trainer and owner (the workmate looked better!)
· Keen Ice – was urged a bit throughout his last work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] and went fairly fast - for him – and seemed to be tiring at the end
· Danzig Moon looks ready: after going a very fast 5f in 58:0 on the 18[SUP]th[/SUP], he ran a relaxed final 4f work in 48:4 on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP]
· Itsaknockout – looked good in last 4f work – holding his own against stablemate Materiality.
· Tencendur – ran a 1:00 flat 5f for his last work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] – good even splits all the way through – looks set to run his best.
· Sanford – had a very good – and sprightly last work on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] – including a very strong gallop-out
Weather Considerations:
As of Tuesday, April 27th: 45% chance of rain predicted for Thursday – then little chance of rain for Friday and Saturday, so the track should come up fast for Derby. But . . . just in case:
- Entrants that have already run well on a sloppy, wet fast, or muddy track; El Kabeir won in the mud in the Gotham at Aqu, American Pharoah won in the slop at Oaklawn, Upstart ran second in the slop at Belmont, Far right won in the slop at
Oaklawn, Tencendur broke his Maiden in the mud at Aqu, but then didn’t seem to care for it in the Gotham.
Horse By Horse Comments (listed in post position order with last 3 race Beyer figs in parens):
#1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (90-76-86): Has very low Beyer figs and has not won or placed in a G1 or G2. His sire, Street Sense, won this race, and his great grand dam was the undefeated Hall of Famer, Personal Ensign. He’s got the good genes, but at this point in his young career he looks to be of a lower caliber than several of the others. Drew the dreaded 1 post. Pass.
#2. Carpe Diem (93-98-95): Likes to lay close, and then really turn it on in the stretch. He’ll be up against by far the best field he’s ever faced today, and his Beyers are many notches below the top ones here, but he ran 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and has only raced twice this year. This $1.2 million 2 yr. old purchase comes in as a relatively fresh sophomore, and could easily improve. Top jock, John Velasquez, had a choice between this one and Materiality – having ridden them both in all of their races – and he chose Carpe Diem.
By Giant’s Causeway with his dam’s sire being Unbridled, he has the credentials for the distance. I don’t like his post draw – he’ll really need to break alertly and get on with it right away to avoid getting pinned down inside. One to consider if the odds are inticing.
#3. Materiality (88-104-110): Notwithstanding the dreaded “Apollo’s Curse” angle (didn’t race as a two-year old), this youngster has won 3 in succession including a last-race G1 win in the Florida Derby . . . and that race with a 110 Beyer figure that towers in here! As far as ‘foundation’ – the last two of his three lifetime races were both at 9f, so he may have very well have the foundation he needs and still be a fresh horse at the same time.
from the start – and very well could be prominent at the end. He’s relatively inexperienced, but this one just might be a “monster.” Must consider.
#4. Tencendur (89-82-100): He ran a bang-up race while second to Frosted in the G1 Wood Memorial in last where he had the lead at the head of the stretch, but ended up losing 2 1/2 lengths to the winner from there. Neither his sire nor his dam ever won at other than sprint distances, so his ability to get the 1 1/4 distance has to be in question. Minor award possibilities.
#5. Danzig Moon (87-76-90): His half-brother, Orb, who won the 2013 Derby. Danzig Moon is bred in-the-purple and should love the distance. His last, a second to Carpe Diem in the G1 Bluegrass at Kee – was his best yet, but he has run behind that one two races in succession, his Beyers are on the low side, and it would seem to be a tall order for this off-the-pace runner to be able to negotiate the 20 horse field while at the same time running the race of his life in order to be able to mow down this top group at the wire. It’s not, of course, an impossibility, but require very high odds if you like him.
#6. Mubtaahij (? [95]): Irish bred is coming in off a sparkling win in the $2 million U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. Some are denigrating his competition there and the projected equivalent Beyer fig of 95 – but if you watch the video of the race, you’ll likely be drop-jawed at the explosiveness of his move in mid-stretch to win going away by 8 widening lengths. That win was his second in the UAE Triple Crown series, and though it’ll be a tough assignment to ship across the world and tackle this sterling group of local horses . . . this guy has already won two races at a longer distance, 1 3/16, than any of these North American based horse have ever run. He has a wily trainer, he’s bred to run all day, and has an explosive turn of foot.
He’ll be the only horse in the race not on drugs (he runs medication free overseas, and his trainer says he’ll keep it that way here), regardless - this one is a big foreign threat.
#7. El Kabeir (95-89-94): Started his racing career as a front-running pace setter (he went wire-to-wire in the G2 Jockey Club over this Churchill surface as a 2 yr
old), but his connections have decided to teach him to rate, and he came from 12 back to win the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. His last, the G1 Wood was a bit lackluster when he checked in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] behind Tencendur and almost 6 lengths behind winner Materiality. That race was the first time he’d tried the 9 furlong distance which sets up some doubts about his ability to get the classic distance, and he’s yet to win or place in a G1 or G2 race.
#8. Dortmund (103-104-106): Undefeated at 6 for 6 - and his last was a scintillating win in the G 1 Santa Anita Derby where he ran off by more than 4 after setting a solid pace. He’s big, he’s powerful, he’s fast, and he’s a fighter – and he’s won a race over this track - what else could anyone want in a Derby contender?
His daddy, Big Brown, won this race in 2008. This guy could make it a “like father – like son” thing by repeating that feat this year. He’s drawn the best post of the main contenders. Big threat.
#9. Bolo (83-88-101): He’s going in the right direction, and ran 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the G1 Santa Anita Derby in last – however he never looked like threatening Dortmund in that race – and I just don’t see him improving the needed 8 or 9 lengths he’ll need to today. He’s got turf breeding – is likely better on the green, and will probably return there after today’s try. Pass
#10. Firing Line (91-103-97): He won for fun in the G3 Sunland Derby in last (by 14 lgths!) and in his previous two races, the G3 RB Lewis at Sa, and (as a 2 yr. old) the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity – he was lapped onto Dortmund – just missing by a head each time. He’s one of the good ones coming from the west coast, and he’ll get the services of master jock, Gary Stevens. His bloodlines don’t shout “classic distances,” but still . . . interesting prospect who’ll likely provide very enticing odds.
#11. Stanford (90-93-98): This one is moving forward nicely for top trainer, Todd Pletcher. He ran a hard-fought second to International Star in the G2 Louisiana Derby in last after leading the entire race. He has good breeding and is lightly
raced, but will be sorely tested here - and has already lost to 3 of the runners lining up against him today and has yet to win a stakes of any kind. Pass.
#12. International Star (90-93-96): He’s the points leader, and he comes in with a 3-race win streak – completing the hat-trick in the Derby prep series at Fairgrounds. His last was a gutsy performance when he prevailed by sheer courage to win by a neck in the Louisiana Derby after being shredded by the whip all the way down the long stretch. His previous results were sketchy – winning only 2 of 6 (ran 4[SUP]th[/SUP] behind El Kabeir in his only race at Churchill Downs), but his Beyer figs have risen in each of last 3 races. His trainer is 0-for-7 in Derby tries, and his jock will be riding in his first Derby.
Has great breeding – his sire Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby in 2000 and his grandsire, Mr. Prospector has sired winners of all three of the Triple Crown races. He’s got the foundation and experience - should be closing stoutly, and is not at all out of the question.
#13. Itsaknockout (83-90-76): Distance shouldn’t be a problem – this one’s sire was the outstanding race horse, Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont and the Travers as a 3 yr. old then went on to become champion older male with wins in several marquee handicaps. ‘Knockout is lightly raced, but has yet to win a stakes race of any kind. He did run second to Upstart in the Bluegrass – missing by 2 3/4 - but then didn’t follow up at all when checking in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] behind Upstart and Materiality in the Florida Derby while 20+ lengths back! Just no way I’ll consider him for the win slot.
#14. Keen Ice: As a bubble horse on points earnings, he drew into the race when Todd Pletcher decided not to run Madefromlucky. No G1 or G2 wins or places, no wins at all since breaking his Maiden at this track last year. It would be an absolute shocker for win, but his closing style could get him a small piece if the pace falls apart.
#15. Frosted (96-85-103): His last race - a win in the G1 Wood Memorial - was a pip, and changed the opinions of many as to this guy’s chances to win Derby. He ran from behind into a slow pace while 4 wide on both turns and still won going
away. I had previously doubted his will to gut it out in the late running - he had coughed it up badly late after leading in the G2 Fountain of Youth. The connections changed strategy in the Wood and ran from near the back (but in only a 7 horse field) whereas the horse had been running much closer to the pace in previous races. They will likely use that tactic again in the Derby (running from mid-pack). Another potentially important point is that the horse supposedly had a ‘misplaced palate’ problem in the Fountain of Youth – and had minor surgery to fix that before the Wood. If that is what made the difference, then we may not have seen the best of this one yet. Need to seriously consider.
His sire, Tapit, just set a North American record for progeny winnings in 2014. Frosted is half-brother to Tonalist – winner of last year’s Belmont Stakes.
#16. War Story (86-91-91): He ran behind (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] or 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]) International Star in all three of the Fairgrounds Derby preps. He has had trouble at the start in 4 of his lifetime races with trip notes of; “hesitated at the start,” bumped both sides at the break,” “off a bit slow,” and “off a bit slow.” This tough gelding has decent breeding and is a decent horse – I’m just not at all keen on betting he’ll win the 2015 Kentucky Derby!
#17. Mr. Z (90-64-90): He has the usual profile for trainer, Wayne Lukas – he runs them until they can’t run anymore (but hey – who am I to criticize one of the most successful trainers?!). At the very least, Mr. Z has experience on his side, and he hasn’t been dodging top competitors. He’s run in 7 Graded races at 6 different race tracks. The problem is he hasn’t won any of those races, and he has already been bested by 7 or 8 of those he’ll face today. Looking elsewhere.
#18. American Pharoah (101-100-105): If you haven’t seen this one run, I’d suggest watching some of his races on video. He has absolutely beautiful, fluid action. If I were a breeding mare owner, I’d already be lining up to breed to this one – regardless of what he does racing from here on out. Eclipse Award winning Champion two year old male has won 4 in succession, and his winning margins in those four races have been 4 3/4, 3 1/4, 6 1/4, and 8. That last one, the G1 Arkansas Derby was poetry to watch: the horse was never at any point prompted to do anything he wasn’t doing naturally on his own – Espinoza never once even shook
the reins at him much less brought out the whip – not even a tap on the shoulder - and the horse was way geared down at the end! I don’t think we’ve seen the best this horse has to give yet – and likely by a good measure.
His Dosage Index is higher than one would like to see – as is his Center of Distribution number – he’s got something to prove here at this classic distance – but his daddy, Pioneer of the Nile was second in the 2009 Derby, and his granddaddy, Empire Maker won the 2003 Belmont Stakes, so stamina hopefully won’t be an issue. He arrived early at Churchill Downs, and has been acclimating well.
He can run fast early and he can run fast late. Top contender, and potential super horse.
#19. Upstart (106-95-108): You’ll notice that Upstart is the only horse in here that has cracked the 105 Beyer level twice as a 3 yr old – once in the Holy Bull when he beat Frosted, and in that last race, the Florida Derby when he lost a tough one to Materiality in what turned into essentially a “match race” with that one. He is also the only horse that has run in as many as three G1 or G2 races as a 3 yr old. He was 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year (behind Carpe Diem), and always comes suited up to play. He had his training schedule interrupted slightly with a minor fever, but then came back with a “wow!” 47:1 4f work, so all systems seem to be go. His post draw is a concerning - he’ll likely just lap onto American Pharoah to his immediate inside and he may have to be ‘used’ harder early than he would prefer. Still, he’s another one that must be considered as a threat to get at least a part.
#20. Far Right (89-91-92): He ran a good second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby – if you can call losing by 8 lengths to a geared-down horse a ‘good’ race (?!). He has insipid looking Beyer figs, and his breeding is lackluster. I just don’t see him improving the 8 or 10 lengths he’d need to in order to win today, but he should be closing stoutly.
"Big looks" on Saturday?
American Pharoah / Dortmund / Frosted
Longshot chance?
Firing Line / Mubtaahij / Materiality / International Star
Betting
I'd suggest concentrating on the best overlays among the top 7 or 8. Remember how difficult it's been in recent decades for low priced horses to win this race, and remember the very lucrative exotics payoffs in several of those years . . . let that stick in your head if you are tempted to take a relatively short price on any horse. If American Pharoah or Dortmund appear – after seeing the post parade – to be “must use on top” horses in your multi-horse (or multi-race) wagers, at least consider using some of the viable looking huge price horses underneath (in all positions) in order to put yourself in front of some decent pay-off potential.
Conversely – if you settle on one or more of the ‘long-shot’ horses for your on-top pick – it is prudent not to exclude the big names from the back slots on at least some of your tickets.
The Kentucky Oaks (on Friday)
In the “Lilies For the Fillies” race, below is a short rundown on each contender (in post position order). . .
1. Forever Unbridled: Her trainer is adept at pulling off surprises in the big races: his horses ran second in the last two Kentucky Derbies at odds of 37/1 and 34/1. And another “long odds” tidbit: this filly’s dam, Lemons Forever, won this same race in 2006 and paid $96.20! This miss might not go quite that high off her good 3rd place finish in the G2 Fairgrounds Oaks in last, but she has yet to win, or place in a Graded race. She does get top ‘big-money’ jock, Mike Smith. Intriguing – but iffy.
2. Shook Up: Was second at 6/1 in that Fg Oaks race, but though only a couple of lengths off, I’m A Chatterbox, the whole way around – she never looked like she was threatening that winner. Would need to run an improved race to have a chance. She is out of Tapit – and she is half-sister to the winner of this race last year, Untapable.
3. Include Betty: Comes in off a win in the G3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park in her best performance yet. Running from dead last in that race – she got stopped behind horses nearing the far turn while trying to move up . . . jock switched her to the outside and she really kicked it in while going 7 or 8 wide! The odds on her in her last three races were; 18/1, 26/1, and 18/1 – and she has a “come-from-the*clouds” running style that will require a fast pace to run at, and a relatively traffic-free trip, and there still remains a ‘class’ question, but I think she has a chance at likely juicy odds.
4. Eskenformoney: She’s doing everything right for top trainer Todd Pletcher, and is coming in off a good second in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. But – she had the perfect trip and had every chance to beat the winner, Birdatthewire, but didn’t. She wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’m looking elsewhere for the win spot.
5. Condo Commando: This is a very quick new York-based filly who has won 5 of 6 lifetime and all 5 in wire-to-wire fashion. Notched a G2 win in the Gazelle at Aqueduct in last, and has a G1 win under her belt in the Spinaway at Saratoga as a
2 yr. old. She’s a classy youngster with lots of speed – dangerous.
6. Angela Renee: The other Pletcher entry. She’s a Graded Stakes winner (as a 2 yr. old) who has been productive in her 8 career starts. but she’s been bested by 4 of these fillies in here in her last two races. Would need noticeable improvement.
7. Lovely Maria: Won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland in her last – as the 9/5 favorite. She did it well, and was clear by 3 at the wire after being wide around both turns. Will likely improve off that and is a contender.
8. I’m A Chatterbox: Has a versatile running style: In her sweep of the Fairgrounds
3 yr. old filly series, she won wire-to-wire, from just off the pace, and from next to last 10 lengths back. She looks to be at the top of her game for master filly trainer, Larry Jones. Solid contender.
9. Money’soncharlotte: Speed figures seem low – her only win was in a cheap
stakes at Gp – she’s been 150 to 1 combined odds in her last 3 races (!?). Pass.
10. Oceanwave: Always gives her best and has never been off-the-board in her 5 starts. She has been facing lesser and has been beat by a couple of these. However – she’ll be closing strongly, and has a shot for a piece at huge odds.
11. Sarah Sis: Had an eventful trip in the Fantasy when checking in 5[SUP]th[/SUP] at 7/2. She had come in either 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in all 6 of her previous races – including a win in the G3 Honeybee at Oaklawn. It looked in that race like she did have the opportunity to show better than she did which puts doubts in my mind for her chances today. Get s good jockey switch to Gary Stevens.
12. Stellar Wind: Made a beautiful sweeping move from last to first while going wide around the turn for home – to win drawing off by 5 in the Santa Anita Oaks in last. A very professional young miss and daughter of great race horse, Curlin – has top jock Victor Espinoza and looks ready to run big. Contender.
13. Birdatthewire: She was extremely headstrong when winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She got ahold of the bit and twice ran up onto the heels of horses in front of her – steadying/checking while the jock was wrestling with her to get her to settle. She was wide around the turn for home – and still won clear at 8/5. She’s got a lot of raw talent, and with a more settled trip would be a real threat.
14. Puca: Solid filly has been facing the good ones and did earn a check for runner-up money in the G2 Gazelle in last while pressing (chasing) Condo Commando. Wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’d need big odds to get interested.
As always: I'd suggest concentrating on the best overlays among them.
Best of fortune to all of you on Derby weekend! - Gary / Horse Racing Gold
Kentucky Derby time again!
The first Kentucky Derby was run in 1875 – and since that beginning, through major world wars, and the Great Depression, and whatever . . . there has never been a missed running. What a great American tradition it really is. In my opinion it is under appreciated and should be a national holiday (!) . . . well - maybe that’s going a little too far?!
This is the third year of the new 'points system' for qualification into the
Derby. Coincidentally, in both of the previous two years, the Derby was won by the points total leader (this year that horse is International Star).
The 2015 three year old crop is shaping up to be an exceptional one. I don’t think Secretariat’s 1:59:4 record time will be threatened, but it should be a dynamite renewal of the Run For The Roses!
When betting decision time comes: Most of us – at least the old-timers anyway – would love to see another Secretariat, another Seattle Slew – even another Spectacular Bid. For a true lover of the game, that is only natural . . . but those hopes and/or prejudices need to be put aside when it comes time to lay the money down. As always value is the key.
Trends:
The thing about trends is that they are right . . . until they are wrong! But in the Derby – there is money to be made regardless.
- The main trend of note in recent decades of the Derby had been the very low percentage of winning favorites. In the previous 33 years (1980 through 2012), the favorite had won the Derby only 4 times! But then the last two years were won by favorites, Orb in 2013 (but was at a very acceptable 5/1 – and keyed a huge exacta of $982), and California Chrome last year (and still again the exacta paid a respectable $340 with the Trifecta paying $3400+).
Thunder Gulch at $51, Charismatic at $64.6, War Emblem at $43, Giacomo at $102.6, Mine That Bird at $103.2, Super Saver at $43.8, and I'll Have Another at $32.6.
That's what makes the Derby so much fun, and so potentially rewarding. - Another trend is recency . . .
In general, horses do well by racing into condition - particularly in the marquee races. Now, of course, this isn't always true - top trainers can bring horse up to an important race off a training regimen alone (the late, great Bobby Frankel was a master of that). However, there is a long-standing stat/fact: since 1956, no horse has won a Derby without having a prep race in the previous 6-weeks. But - when Animal Kingdom won three years ago, he was only one-day shy of having been off 6 weeks (after resting off the Dubai trip), so that trend, for all practical purposes, essentially ended that year.
And anyway, only Firing Line is pushing that envelope this year – also having been off one day shy of 6 weeks since his win in the Sunland Derby on March 23.
- Another extremely long-standing stat is that of Derby winners having raced as two year olds. That trend has been going since 1882 (!) Horses just don’t win the Derby without having raced as a 2-yr old. This is the so-called "Apollo's Curse" (the name of the last horse to accomplish it). Highly respected Florida Derby winner, Materiality, fits that ultra-negative profile this year – and he comes in with the highest last race Beyer . . . quite a dilemma for the trends watchers.
- No horse has won the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in its prior start since Iron Liege, who was fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial. This year that negative stat applies only to “just off the bubble” horses, Bold Conquest, and Toasting Master neither of whom will likely get into the race.
Prep Races:
I've always been of the opinion that, in order to seriously consider for the win spot in the Derby - the horse should have won or placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 prep race at over a mile distance as a 3 year old.
This year, I’d downgrade; El Kabeir, Firing Line, Mr. Z, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Bolo, and Keen Ice for having not done so.
Beyer Numbers:
There is somewhat of a trend going here as well;
- a. They seem to be less and less an important factor, and
- b. They had been getting lower each year in recent years. Formerly, a horse needed a 105 or better in one of the major preps - but those kinds of figures have been rare as hen’s teeth in recent years.
However, last year’s winner, California Chrome did sport the highest Beyer – a 107 (the only horse in the field with a 105 or greater), and this year’s good crop has four that have cracked that coveted 105 number; American Pharoah with a 105, Dortmund with a 106, Upstart with a 108, and Materiality with a 110.
Pace:
Overall - the Derby is only rarely won by a dedicated front-running type. There are so many runners trying so hard - that the 'slow-'em-down-and-steal-it-on-the*lead' type race (which is very common in day-to-day racing) just doesn't happen in the Derby. Anecdotally: I had a big bet on War Emblem in 2002 when he took them wire-to-wire, but he wasn't a “need-to-lead” type, and he could have as easily run from off the pace and still have won it - as he was much the best that day.
In normal racing, around 60 percent of races are won by horses that are positioned among the front 3 at the first call. In the Derby that figure drops to around 20 percent.
When the speedballs do go at each other - then on occasion a deep closer type will come in, but the overall best profile for this particular race is a mid-pack runner that can stay in touch with the leaders and have something left for the
stretch - preferably with tactical speed that has a "push button" aspect to it so as to help get and maintain position while avoiding traffic problems.
And now - as a result of the new points system for qualification into the race – since none of the allowed qualifying races are sprints, sprint type speed horses have necessarily disappeared. No more can a couple of high-purse value wins at the shorter distances get a horse into the Derby. The proverbial "melt-down" race where the pace completely falls apart will from now on (I would think) be a rarer occurrence.
Early Pace:
The unfolding of the pace this year should be very interesting – as several of the good ones have natural early foot and can run at a high ‘cruising speed.’ The runners who have been pace setters in previous Graded stakes races are;
- Dortmund: Wired field in both of last two races.
- American Pharoah: Will very likely also try (with any kind of decent break), to press the pace setter/s closely.
- Materiality: Was only a head off the leader at the start in the Florid Derby, but soon took over.
- Firing Line: Wired the field at Sunland Derby in last, but was running a couple lengths off Dortmund at the first call in the previous race.
- Stanford: Led all the way in both of his previous two.
Pace pressers and mid-pack runners:
Racing Luck always plays a part in the Derby. There will be bumping and jostling – some will be squeezed off (often more than once), and have to take up – some will get behind horses and have nowhere to run – this is the Derby. Those in here who like to run a pressing to mid-pack style are; Carpe Diem, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Upstart, Danzig Moon, Tencendur, Mr. Z, and Itsaknockout.
Late Pace:
Far Right would like to secure a position just behind the mid pack group but from post 20 his options are gone – he’ll likely drop out the back and set up for one long, tough late run through or around traffic. International Star can close well, and Keen Ice will be lagging back, but very unlikely to threaten the top markers with his closing kick.
Pace summation:
Andy Beyer quoted a very pertinent stat before last year’s Derby: Since 1986, the first half mile has been run in less than 46 seconds - eight times. In each of those years, stretch-runners have prevailed, most of them coming from far, far behind. Watch the half-mile time as the race unfolds – you’ll have a good indication of your horse’s chances.
American Pharoah ran a 45[SUP]1[/SUP] at 7f when winning the Del Mar Futurity as a 2 yr old, and he pressed a 45[SUP]4[/SUP] in his last – the Arkansas Derby, so he can go that fast should he want to, but I really don’t think his connections will want to. Firing Line zipped a 45[SUP]1[/SUP] in the Los Alamitos Futurity and held on for a head loss to Dortmund – then in his last he went 45[SUP]1[/SUP] while winning the Sunland Derby wire-to-wire . . . he just might want to try those kinds of blazing fractions today as his only real hope to win it.
The post position draw has made the early part of the race even more interesting. The inside two horses, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Carpe Diem both have the ability to run early – and will have to use that speed today. Materiality in post 3 also has early foot, so there may be a “mad scramble” to get clear position inside - but . . .
Speedy Dortmund is in post 8, Firing Line will likely be blasting from post 10, and quick American Pharoah will have them all in his view from post 18. If any of these last mentioned three get out and start moving over towards the rail – it could set up a squeeze on some or all of those inside three.
Workouts Leading Up to Derby Day:
· El Kabeir – whipped out a sprightly 46:7 4f work at Belmont on Saturday before Derby
· Dortmund – His final work was a 6f cruise in 1:13:6 at Santa Anita before boarding the plane for Lexington – he had already worked a sharp 5f in 58:8 on the 18th
· American Pharoah – He worked in his usual very fast mode – zipping 5f in an effortless 58:2 at Cd where he in no way appeared to be going that fast. He reeled of 4 sub-12 splits, ran the last 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in :12 flat, and then and galloped out strong without any urging during the entire work!
· Firing Line – Ran a relatively slow 5f in 1:02:2 at Sa on Saturday before flying out to Kentucky on Sunday (but then he has such natural speed – connections might not want him too sharp)
· Far Right – his work on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] appeared just a bit dull, and the horse was hard to control
· Carpe Diem – Strong workman-like final workout on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] – 5f in 1:01:2 – Pletcher said it was just what he wanted
· Upstart – Had a strong final 5f prep work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] at Palm Meadows – going in 1:00:2
· Materiality – Has looked good in all his Derby works – had a 5f in 1:01:08 at Cd then an easy appearing 4f final work in 48:0 on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] - appears to be liking the surroundings
· Mr. Z – his work on the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] drew less than encouraged comments from both trainer and owner (the workmate looked better!)
· Keen Ice – was urged a bit throughout his last work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] and went fairly fast - for him – and seemed to be tiring at the end
· Danzig Moon looks ready: after going a very fast 5f in 58:0 on the 18[SUP]th[/SUP], he ran a relaxed final 4f work in 48:4 on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP]
· Itsaknockout – looked good in last 4f work – holding his own against stablemate Materiality.
· Tencendur – ran a 1:00 flat 5f for his last work on the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] – good even splits all the way through – looks set to run his best.
· Sanford – had a very good – and sprightly last work on the 24[SUP]th[/SUP] – including a very strong gallop-out
Weather Considerations:
As of Tuesday, April 27th: 45% chance of rain predicted for Thursday – then little chance of rain for Friday and Saturday, so the track should come up fast for Derby. But . . . just in case:
- Entrants that have already run well on a sloppy, wet fast, or muddy track; El Kabeir won in the mud in the Gotham at Aqu, American Pharoah won in the slop at Oaklawn, Upstart ran second in the slop at Belmont, Far right won in the slop at
Oaklawn, Tencendur broke his Maiden in the mud at Aqu, but then didn’t seem to care for it in the Gotham.
Horse By Horse Comments (listed in post position order with last 3 race Beyer figs in parens):
#1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (90-76-86): Has very low Beyer figs and has not won or placed in a G1 or G2. His sire, Street Sense, won this race, and his great grand dam was the undefeated Hall of Famer, Personal Ensign. He’s got the good genes, but at this point in his young career he looks to be of a lower caliber than several of the others. Drew the dreaded 1 post. Pass.
#2. Carpe Diem (93-98-95): Likes to lay close, and then really turn it on in the stretch. He’ll be up against by far the best field he’s ever faced today, and his Beyers are many notches below the top ones here, but he ran 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and has only raced twice this year. This $1.2 million 2 yr. old purchase comes in as a relatively fresh sophomore, and could easily improve. Top jock, John Velasquez, had a choice between this one and Materiality – having ridden them both in all of their races – and he chose Carpe Diem.
By Giant’s Causeway with his dam’s sire being Unbridled, he has the credentials for the distance. I don’t like his post draw – he’ll really need to break alertly and get on with it right away to avoid getting pinned down inside. One to consider if the odds are inticing.
#3. Materiality (88-104-110): Notwithstanding the dreaded “Apollo’s Curse” angle (didn’t race as a two-year old), this youngster has won 3 in succession including a last-race G1 win in the Florida Derby . . . and that race with a 110 Beyer figure that towers in here! As far as ‘foundation’ – the last two of his three lifetime races were both at 9f, so he may have very well have the foundation he needs and still be a fresh horse at the same time.
from the start – and very well could be prominent at the end. He’s relatively inexperienced, but this one just might be a “monster.” Must consider.
#4. Tencendur (89-82-100): He ran a bang-up race while second to Frosted in the G1 Wood Memorial in last where he had the lead at the head of the stretch, but ended up losing 2 1/2 lengths to the winner from there. Neither his sire nor his dam ever won at other than sprint distances, so his ability to get the 1 1/4 distance has to be in question. Minor award possibilities.
#5. Danzig Moon (87-76-90): His half-brother, Orb, who won the 2013 Derby. Danzig Moon is bred in-the-purple and should love the distance. His last, a second to Carpe Diem in the G1 Bluegrass at Kee – was his best yet, but he has run behind that one two races in succession, his Beyers are on the low side, and it would seem to be a tall order for this off-the-pace runner to be able to negotiate the 20 horse field while at the same time running the race of his life in order to be able to mow down this top group at the wire. It’s not, of course, an impossibility, but require very high odds if you like him.
#6. Mubtaahij (? [95]): Irish bred is coming in off a sparkling win in the $2 million U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. Some are denigrating his competition there and the projected equivalent Beyer fig of 95 – but if you watch the video of the race, you’ll likely be drop-jawed at the explosiveness of his move in mid-stretch to win going away by 8 widening lengths. That win was his second in the UAE Triple Crown series, and though it’ll be a tough assignment to ship across the world and tackle this sterling group of local horses . . . this guy has already won two races at a longer distance, 1 3/16, than any of these North American based horse have ever run. He has a wily trainer, he’s bred to run all day, and has an explosive turn of foot.
He’ll be the only horse in the race not on drugs (he runs medication free overseas, and his trainer says he’ll keep it that way here), regardless - this one is a big foreign threat.
#7. El Kabeir (95-89-94): Started his racing career as a front-running pace setter (he went wire-to-wire in the G2 Jockey Club over this Churchill surface as a 2 yr
old), but his connections have decided to teach him to rate, and he came from 12 back to win the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. His last, the G1 Wood was a bit lackluster when he checked in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] behind Tencendur and almost 6 lengths behind winner Materiality. That race was the first time he’d tried the 9 furlong distance which sets up some doubts about his ability to get the classic distance, and he’s yet to win or place in a G1 or G2 race.
#8. Dortmund (103-104-106): Undefeated at 6 for 6 - and his last was a scintillating win in the G 1 Santa Anita Derby where he ran off by more than 4 after setting a solid pace. He’s big, he’s powerful, he’s fast, and he’s a fighter – and he’s won a race over this track - what else could anyone want in a Derby contender?
His daddy, Big Brown, won this race in 2008. This guy could make it a “like father – like son” thing by repeating that feat this year. He’s drawn the best post of the main contenders. Big threat.
#9. Bolo (83-88-101): He’s going in the right direction, and ran 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the G1 Santa Anita Derby in last – however he never looked like threatening Dortmund in that race – and I just don’t see him improving the needed 8 or 9 lengths he’ll need to today. He’s got turf breeding – is likely better on the green, and will probably return there after today’s try. Pass
#10. Firing Line (91-103-97): He won for fun in the G3 Sunland Derby in last (by 14 lgths!) and in his previous two races, the G3 RB Lewis at Sa, and (as a 2 yr. old) the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity – he was lapped onto Dortmund – just missing by a head each time. He’s one of the good ones coming from the west coast, and he’ll get the services of master jock, Gary Stevens. His bloodlines don’t shout “classic distances,” but still . . . interesting prospect who’ll likely provide very enticing odds.
#11. Stanford (90-93-98): This one is moving forward nicely for top trainer, Todd Pletcher. He ran a hard-fought second to International Star in the G2 Louisiana Derby in last after leading the entire race. He has good breeding and is lightly
raced, but will be sorely tested here - and has already lost to 3 of the runners lining up against him today and has yet to win a stakes of any kind. Pass.
#12. International Star (90-93-96): He’s the points leader, and he comes in with a 3-race win streak – completing the hat-trick in the Derby prep series at Fairgrounds. His last was a gutsy performance when he prevailed by sheer courage to win by a neck in the Louisiana Derby after being shredded by the whip all the way down the long stretch. His previous results were sketchy – winning only 2 of 6 (ran 4[SUP]th[/SUP] behind El Kabeir in his only race at Churchill Downs), but his Beyer figs have risen in each of last 3 races. His trainer is 0-for-7 in Derby tries, and his jock will be riding in his first Derby.
Has great breeding – his sire Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby in 2000 and his grandsire, Mr. Prospector has sired winners of all three of the Triple Crown races. He’s got the foundation and experience - should be closing stoutly, and is not at all out of the question.
#13. Itsaknockout (83-90-76): Distance shouldn’t be a problem – this one’s sire was the outstanding race horse, Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont and the Travers as a 3 yr. old then went on to become champion older male with wins in several marquee handicaps. ‘Knockout is lightly raced, but has yet to win a stakes race of any kind. He did run second to Upstart in the Bluegrass – missing by 2 3/4 - but then didn’t follow up at all when checking in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] behind Upstart and Materiality in the Florida Derby while 20+ lengths back! Just no way I’ll consider him for the win slot.
#14. Keen Ice: As a bubble horse on points earnings, he drew into the race when Todd Pletcher decided not to run Madefromlucky. No G1 or G2 wins or places, no wins at all since breaking his Maiden at this track last year. It would be an absolute shocker for win, but his closing style could get him a small piece if the pace falls apart.
#15. Frosted (96-85-103): His last race - a win in the G1 Wood Memorial - was a pip, and changed the opinions of many as to this guy’s chances to win Derby. He ran from behind into a slow pace while 4 wide on both turns and still won going
away. I had previously doubted his will to gut it out in the late running - he had coughed it up badly late after leading in the G2 Fountain of Youth. The connections changed strategy in the Wood and ran from near the back (but in only a 7 horse field) whereas the horse had been running much closer to the pace in previous races. They will likely use that tactic again in the Derby (running from mid-pack). Another potentially important point is that the horse supposedly had a ‘misplaced palate’ problem in the Fountain of Youth – and had minor surgery to fix that before the Wood. If that is what made the difference, then we may not have seen the best of this one yet. Need to seriously consider.
His sire, Tapit, just set a North American record for progeny winnings in 2014. Frosted is half-brother to Tonalist – winner of last year’s Belmont Stakes.
#16. War Story (86-91-91): He ran behind (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] or 3[SUP]rd[/SUP]) International Star in all three of the Fairgrounds Derby preps. He has had trouble at the start in 4 of his lifetime races with trip notes of; “hesitated at the start,” bumped both sides at the break,” “off a bit slow,” and “off a bit slow.” This tough gelding has decent breeding and is a decent horse – I’m just not at all keen on betting he’ll win the 2015 Kentucky Derby!
#17. Mr. Z (90-64-90): He has the usual profile for trainer, Wayne Lukas – he runs them until they can’t run anymore (but hey – who am I to criticize one of the most successful trainers?!). At the very least, Mr. Z has experience on his side, and he hasn’t been dodging top competitors. He’s run in 7 Graded races at 6 different race tracks. The problem is he hasn’t won any of those races, and he has already been bested by 7 or 8 of those he’ll face today. Looking elsewhere.
#18. American Pharoah (101-100-105): If you haven’t seen this one run, I’d suggest watching some of his races on video. He has absolutely beautiful, fluid action. If I were a breeding mare owner, I’d already be lining up to breed to this one – regardless of what he does racing from here on out. Eclipse Award winning Champion two year old male has won 4 in succession, and his winning margins in those four races have been 4 3/4, 3 1/4, 6 1/4, and 8. That last one, the G1 Arkansas Derby was poetry to watch: the horse was never at any point prompted to do anything he wasn’t doing naturally on his own – Espinoza never once even shook
the reins at him much less brought out the whip – not even a tap on the shoulder - and the horse was way geared down at the end! I don’t think we’ve seen the best this horse has to give yet – and likely by a good measure.
His Dosage Index is higher than one would like to see – as is his Center of Distribution number – he’s got something to prove here at this classic distance – but his daddy, Pioneer of the Nile was second in the 2009 Derby, and his granddaddy, Empire Maker won the 2003 Belmont Stakes, so stamina hopefully won’t be an issue. He arrived early at Churchill Downs, and has been acclimating well.
He can run fast early and he can run fast late. Top contender, and potential super horse.
#19. Upstart (106-95-108): You’ll notice that Upstart is the only horse in here that has cracked the 105 Beyer level twice as a 3 yr old – once in the Holy Bull when he beat Frosted, and in that last race, the Florida Derby when he lost a tough one to Materiality in what turned into essentially a “match race” with that one. He is also the only horse that has run in as many as three G1 or G2 races as a 3 yr old. He was 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year (behind Carpe Diem), and always comes suited up to play. He had his training schedule interrupted slightly with a minor fever, but then came back with a “wow!” 47:1 4f work, so all systems seem to be go. His post draw is a concerning - he’ll likely just lap onto American Pharoah to his immediate inside and he may have to be ‘used’ harder early than he would prefer. Still, he’s another one that must be considered as a threat to get at least a part.
#20. Far Right (89-91-92): He ran a good second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby – if you can call losing by 8 lengths to a geared-down horse a ‘good’ race (?!). He has insipid looking Beyer figs, and his breeding is lackluster. I just don’t see him improving the 8 or 10 lengths he’d need to in order to win today, but he should be closing stoutly.
"Big looks" on Saturday?
American Pharoah / Dortmund / Frosted
Longshot chance?
Firing Line / Mubtaahij / Materiality / International Star
Betting
I'd suggest concentrating on the best overlays among the top 7 or 8. Remember how difficult it's been in recent decades for low priced horses to win this race, and remember the very lucrative exotics payoffs in several of those years . . . let that stick in your head if you are tempted to take a relatively short price on any horse. If American Pharoah or Dortmund appear – after seeing the post parade – to be “must use on top” horses in your multi-horse (or multi-race) wagers, at least consider using some of the viable looking huge price horses underneath (in all positions) in order to put yourself in front of some decent pay-off potential.
Conversely – if you settle on one or more of the ‘long-shot’ horses for your on-top pick – it is prudent not to exclude the big names from the back slots on at least some of your tickets.
| 18 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 | 5/2 |
| 8 | Dortmund | John Velasquez | Bob Baffert | 3/1 | 7/2 |
| 15 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15/1 | 9/1 |
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20/1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 19 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Richard Violette | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | Mubtahiij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghn | 12/1 | 15/1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velasquez | Todd Pletcher | 8/1 | 15/1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manuel Franco | George Weaver | 30/1 | 25/1 |
| 20 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30/1 | 25/1 |
| 14 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| 16 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50/1 | 35/1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30/1 | 35/1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | Todd Pletcher | 30/1 | 40/1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova | 30/1 | 40/1 |
| 17 | Mr Z | Ramon Vasquez | Wayne Lukas | 50/1 | 60/1 |
| 13 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30/1 | 60/1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30/1 | 60/1 |
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Jeffrey Sanchez | Wesley Ward | 50/1 | 99/1 |
| a/e | Frammento | Elvis Trujillo | James Cassidy | 50/1 | 99/1 |
The Kentucky Oaks (on Friday)
In the “Lilies For the Fillies” race, below is a short rundown on each contender (in post position order). . .
1. Forever Unbridled: Her trainer is adept at pulling off surprises in the big races: his horses ran second in the last two Kentucky Derbies at odds of 37/1 and 34/1. And another “long odds” tidbit: this filly’s dam, Lemons Forever, won this same race in 2006 and paid $96.20! This miss might not go quite that high off her good 3rd place finish in the G2 Fairgrounds Oaks in last, but she has yet to win, or place in a Graded race. She does get top ‘big-money’ jock, Mike Smith. Intriguing – but iffy.
2. Shook Up: Was second at 6/1 in that Fg Oaks race, but though only a couple of lengths off, I’m A Chatterbox, the whole way around – she never looked like she was threatening that winner. Would need to run an improved race to have a chance. She is out of Tapit – and she is half-sister to the winner of this race last year, Untapable.
3. Include Betty: Comes in off a win in the G3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park in her best performance yet. Running from dead last in that race – she got stopped behind horses nearing the far turn while trying to move up . . . jock switched her to the outside and she really kicked it in while going 7 or 8 wide! The odds on her in her last three races were; 18/1, 26/1, and 18/1 – and she has a “come-from-the*clouds” running style that will require a fast pace to run at, and a relatively traffic-free trip, and there still remains a ‘class’ question, but I think she has a chance at likely juicy odds.
4. Eskenformoney: She’s doing everything right for top trainer Todd Pletcher, and is coming in off a good second in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. But – she had the perfect trip and had every chance to beat the winner, Birdatthewire, but didn’t. She wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’m looking elsewhere for the win spot.
5. Condo Commando: This is a very quick new York-based filly who has won 5 of 6 lifetime and all 5 in wire-to-wire fashion. Notched a G2 win in the Gazelle at Aqueduct in last, and has a G1 win under her belt in the Spinaway at Saratoga as a
2 yr. old. She’s a classy youngster with lots of speed – dangerous.
6. Angela Renee: The other Pletcher entry. She’s a Graded Stakes winner (as a 2 yr. old) who has been productive in her 8 career starts. but she’s been bested by 4 of these fillies in here in her last two races. Would need noticeable improvement.
7. Lovely Maria: Won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland in her last – as the 9/5 favorite. She did it well, and was clear by 3 at the wire after being wide around both turns. Will likely improve off that and is a contender.
8. I’m A Chatterbox: Has a versatile running style: In her sweep of the Fairgrounds
3 yr. old filly series, she won wire-to-wire, from just off the pace, and from next to last 10 lengths back. She looks to be at the top of her game for master filly trainer, Larry Jones. Solid contender.
9. Money’soncharlotte: Speed figures seem low – her only win was in a cheap
stakes at Gp – she’s been 150 to 1 combined odds in her last 3 races (!?). Pass.
10. Oceanwave: Always gives her best and has never been off-the-board in her 5 starts. She has been facing lesser and has been beat by a couple of these. However – she’ll be closing strongly, and has a shot for a piece at huge odds.
11. Sarah Sis: Had an eventful trip in the Fantasy when checking in 5[SUP]th[/SUP] at 7/2. She had come in either 1[SUP]st[/SUP] or 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in all 6 of her previous races – including a win in the G3 Honeybee at Oaklawn. It looked in that race like she did have the opportunity to show better than she did which puts doubts in my mind for her chances today. Get s good jockey switch to Gary Stevens.
12. Stellar Wind: Made a beautiful sweeping move from last to first while going wide around the turn for home – to win drawing off by 5 in the Santa Anita Oaks in last. A very professional young miss and daughter of great race horse, Curlin – has top jock Victor Espinoza and looks ready to run big. Contender.
13. Birdatthewire: She was extremely headstrong when winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She got ahold of the bit and twice ran up onto the heels of horses in front of her – steadying/checking while the jock was wrestling with her to get her to settle. She was wide around the turn for home – and still won clear at 8/5. She’s got a lot of raw talent, and with a more settled trip would be a real threat.
14. Puca: Solid filly has been facing the good ones and did earn a check for runner-up money in the G2 Gazelle in last while pressing (chasing) Condo Commando. Wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’d need big odds to get interested.
As always: I'd suggest concentrating on the best overlays among them.
| # | filly | jock | trainer | ml | Bl |
| 12 | Stellar Wind | Victor Espinoza | John Sadler | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | Lovely Maria | Kerwin Clark | Larry Jones | 5-1 | 9-2 |
| 8 | I’m A Chatterbox | Florent Geroux | Larry Jones | 4-1 | 9-2 |
| 5 | Condo Commando | Joel Rosario | Rudy Rodriguez | 4-1 | 6-1 |
| 13 | Birdatthewire | Irad Ortiz | Dale Romans | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| 6 | Angela Renee | John Velasquez | Todd Pletcher | 15-1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | Include Betty | Rosemary Homeister | Thomas Proctor | 20-1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | Oceanwave | Rafael Bejarano | Wayne Catalano | 30-1 | 14-1 |
| 2 | Shook Up | Robbie Alvarado | Steve Asmussen | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 3 | Puca | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 1 | Forever Unbridled | Mike Smith | Dallas Stewart | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 11 | Sarah Sis | Gary Stevens | Ingrid Mason | 30-1 | 25-1 |
| 4 | Eskenformoney | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| 9 | Money’soncharlotte | Paco Lopez | Kelly Breen | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 15 | Peace And War | Julien Leparoux | Olly Stevens | 50-1 | 60-1 |
Best of fortune to all of you on Derby weekend! - Gary / Horse Racing Gold
Kentucky Derby Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
The preps have been run, the works are done and now it's time to get it on.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby Odds
2015 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)
Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.
2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.
3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.
4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)
Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.
5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)
Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.
6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)
Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.
7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)
Notes: Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.
8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)
Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.
9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)
Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.
10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)
Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.
11 – Stanford SCR SCRATCHED SCRATCHED
Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.
12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.
13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.
14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)
Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.
15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)
Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.
16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)
Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.
17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)
Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.
18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)
Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.
19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)
Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.
20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)
Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.
21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)
Notes: Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.
22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)
Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.
By Anthony Stabile
The preps have been run, the works are done and now it's time to get it on.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby Odds
2015 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)
1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)
Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.
2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.
3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.
4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)
Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.
5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)
Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.
6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)
Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.
7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)
Notes: Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.
8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)
Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.
9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)
Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.
10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)
Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.
11 – Stanford SCR SCRATCHED SCRATCHED
Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.
12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.
13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)
Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.
14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)
Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.
15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)
Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.
16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)
Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.
17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)
Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.
18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)
Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.
19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)
Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.
20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)
Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.
21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)
Notes: Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.
22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)
Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.
Vegas race books share what's killing horse racing and how to keep betting alive
By COLIN KELLY
For Jay Rood, horse racing has been a near lifelong love affair.
“I’m a huge race guy,” said Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties in Las Vegas. “I grew up going to the track with my mom. I love horse racing.”
Which makes it that much harder to discuss the elephant in the horse racing room: the sport is struggling, and has been for years.
“Obviously, here in Las Vegas, it’s been suffering quite a bit. It’s suffering nationwide, but it’s amplified here,” Rood, who works out of The Mirage, told Covers. “In my particular book, three to four years ago, we flipped the footprint. It used to be an 80/20 split for race/sports. But that just didn’t make sense anymore. It was past time to make that change.”
The numbers more than tell the troubling truth. In 1998, horse racing hit a high-water mark at Nevada books, with a handle of $736.6 million. That year, Real Quiet literally missed the Triple Crown by a nose, losing to Victory Gallop in the Belmont Stakes. Just a year later, Nevada’s horse racing handle had a precipitous plunge to $568.5 million – a drop of 23 percent, even though Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before taking third in the Belmont.
The handle dropped to $512.5 million by 2002 before posting modest gains the next three years, then getting a huge bump in 2006, up to $637.2 million, despite no Triple Crown threat. Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro broke a leg in the Preakness and was ultimately euthanized several months later. Since then, the handle has been on a rapid decline, bottoming out at $339.6 million in 2013, with only a slight gain to $344.2 million last year, despite California Chrome capturing the nation’s attention before falling short of the Triple Crown with a fourth-place Belmont finish.
So what happened that forced The Mirage sportsbook – and many others – to flip their scripts when it came to racing? Rood peeled off plenty of factors: Track takeouts cutting too much into the wager pool, Nevada no longer being allowed to offer rebates to race bettors (“We were the state that started rebates, and then we were outlawed from it,” Rood said), too many races at too many tracks which lead to smaller, weaker fields, and the dying out of the horse race bettor – figuratively and literally.
Several others in the Las Vegas sportsbook business echoed Rood’s opinions, particularly with regard to takeouts – the percentage a track is guaranteed from the wagering pool for each specific race. Rood explains:
“It’s the whole concept of pari-mutuel wagering,” he said. “All the (win/place/show) money goes in to a pool. Let’s say there’s $10,000 in the pool. The track takes $1,700 (17 percent), and whoever wins the race, the people who hold winning tickets share in the remaining $8,300.”
And those takeouts are higher for exactas, trifectas and the like, ranging from 19 percent to as much as 25 percent.
“I think there are a few reasons why horse racing continues to struggle, but the main reason is bettors haven’t been able to win enough,” said Jay Kornegay , executive vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. “The takeouts are too high, and the fields are way too small. That combination makes it difficult for a horse handicapper to win.”
Jason Simbal, CG Technology’s vice president of risk management, agrees with the wagering pool issue, though he’s not quite as miffed by the takeouts.
“I’m not as anti-takeout, because I’ve seen every casino up its hold on slots, and the handle stays the same,” Simbal said. “But I definitely agree that the size of the pool is an issue.”
Rebates factor into takeouts, which actually are used to pay a few different costs, as Simbal explained.
“Say you’ve got a $100 bet with a $16 takeout. A track, we’ll say Churchill Downs, gets $5. The state of Nevada, the Gaming Control Board, gets $3. And there’s operating costs of $1,” Simbal said. “I have $7 left. A rebate is me giving a piece of my profit margin back to the customer making the bet.”
The idea was that the rebate would incentivize the customer to make more bets. As Rood pointed out, the idea originated in Nevada, and it was really only used at a few books, but it ultimately drew the ire of California tracks and was legislated out by Nevada lawmakers in the late 1990s.
“Every other jurisdiction in the country does (rebates), but you can’t do that here,” Simbal said.
Perhaps just as key is the number of tracks – far too many – and the size of the fields – often too small.
“For Las Vegas customers, it sucks, as is shown by the decreasing handle figures,” Simbal said. “You get reduced fields, purses spread out. You’ll have a whole day where you have six to seven races, all below average. Over time, it dilutes the product. You’ve got small purses, not a lot of money in those pools, so there’s not a lot of incentive.
“There’s no reason for people to become interested, because the product isn’t good.”
Simbal then hit on a suggestion that he was hardly alone on – closing some tracks.
“If I could, I would consolidate tracks and consolidate the money, and get the best horses from all those (closed) tracks,” he said. “You make the pool bigger, which gives the bettor more of a return for their bet.”
Rood concurred: “There’s saturation. … So many tracks shouldn’t be operating. We need to contract 25 to 30 percent and send those horses to other tracks, to fill those fields.”
With too many tracks comes too many racing days. Kornegay pointed out that overseas, particularly in Asian horse racing markets, dates are much more limited. So when race day arrives, the product is solid.
“They get huge fields and huge excitement over there. They can have better quality fields and give the players a better chance of winning,” Kornegay said.
“They have racing twice a week,” Rood said of the Asian market. “You get the biggest pools, the biggest fields, and the sport is thriving over there.”
To mimic that, Kornegay suggests tracks lower their takeout percentage and cut back on racing days, which would create bigger, better fields.
“I know that’s easier said than done, but if we want to see this sport survive, they’re going to have to make some drastic changes, to make the sport appeal to a younger crowd.”
Which naturally segues into another big problem for horse racing: a dying betting demographic.
“Some old players are not playing anymore,” said John Avello, director of race and sports for The Wynn. “Their bankroll is depleted, they’re retired or whatever. The younger generation is not picking up that slack.”
There’s a couple of reasons for that. First, all the aforementioned issues make it much harder for horse players to win money. Second, handicapping horse racing is much more difficult than handicapping, say, an NFL game. The younger generation of sports bettors has been groomed on almost instant gratification, and isn’t interested in devoting the time or the patience required to win in a tight horse racing game.
“It takes a long time, and I don’t think they want to spend the time to learn it,” Avello said. “I could teach my wife to make the line on an NFL game. Then it comes down to handicapping. There’s statistics on two teams – that’s all the work you need to do.
“With horse racing, you have similar stats, but it could be eight to 10 horses.”
Furthering the lack of horse racing interest from younger bettors is the lack of visibility.
“It’s not on TV, it’s not in the forefront of any media,” Rood said. “It’s not like the old days, when it was one of the only games in town. Now, within 80 miles of almost anywhere, there’s bingo, slot parlors.
“Horse racing was the main gambling component. Now, there’s such a competitive environment for that dollar that it’s hard for horse racing to compete, because it does take time to study and a little patience. It’s not like slots or table games.”
Despite all the aforementioned issues and shortcomings, sportsbooks are far from considering throwing in the towel. Days like Saturday are a big reason why. Places around town will be packed for the Kentucky Derby, and the atmosphere will be electric.
“At the Venetian, from 2 to 3 p.m. Saturday, your mind will be blown,” Simbal said. “You’ll say, ‘Holy cow, this place is packed just as much as it is for the NCAA tournament.’ Horse racing is very important to us. We’re not like any of those big casinos. Race is a huge part of our business. We are trying to do everything possible.”
Kornegay and Rood both noted that there have been some positive moves of late from the industry.
“There’s been some improvement in some exotic wagering,” Kornegay said. “But they’re going to have to lower the takeout so players do win more when they do pick winners.”
Rood has taken pleasure in seeing tracks ditch synthetic surfaces, noting those made it more difficult for bettors and handicappers. But proclaiming a self-help mantra, Rood said there’s more work to do, and that sportsbooks alone can’t resurrect the sport’s fortunes.
“I’m willing to do anything to keep it vital. But horse racing has got to want to help itself,” he said.
Not surprisingly, Avello perhaps said it best as he looked to horse racing’s future.
“The sign outside my door says ‘race and sports book,’” Avello said. “I’m gonna continue to try to do what I can to make sure it stays that way.”
By COLIN KELLY
For Jay Rood, horse racing has been a near lifelong love affair.
“I’m a huge race guy,” said Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM properties in Las Vegas. “I grew up going to the track with my mom. I love horse racing.”
Which makes it that much harder to discuss the elephant in the horse racing room: the sport is struggling, and has been for years.
“Obviously, here in Las Vegas, it’s been suffering quite a bit. It’s suffering nationwide, but it’s amplified here,” Rood, who works out of The Mirage, told Covers. “In my particular book, three to four years ago, we flipped the footprint. It used to be an 80/20 split for race/sports. But that just didn’t make sense anymore. It was past time to make that change.”
The numbers more than tell the troubling truth. In 1998, horse racing hit a high-water mark at Nevada books, with a handle of $736.6 million. That year, Real Quiet literally missed the Triple Crown by a nose, losing to Victory Gallop in the Belmont Stakes. Just a year later, Nevada’s horse racing handle had a precipitous plunge to $568.5 million – a drop of 23 percent, even though Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before taking third in the Belmont.
The handle dropped to $512.5 million by 2002 before posting modest gains the next three years, then getting a huge bump in 2006, up to $637.2 million, despite no Triple Crown threat. Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro broke a leg in the Preakness and was ultimately euthanized several months later. Since then, the handle has been on a rapid decline, bottoming out at $339.6 million in 2013, with only a slight gain to $344.2 million last year, despite California Chrome capturing the nation’s attention before falling short of the Triple Crown with a fourth-place Belmont finish.
So what happened that forced The Mirage sportsbook – and many others – to flip their scripts when it came to racing? Rood peeled off plenty of factors: Track takeouts cutting too much into the wager pool, Nevada no longer being allowed to offer rebates to race bettors (“We were the state that started rebates, and then we were outlawed from it,” Rood said), too many races at too many tracks which lead to smaller, weaker fields, and the dying out of the horse race bettor – figuratively and literally.
Several others in the Las Vegas sportsbook business echoed Rood’s opinions, particularly with regard to takeouts – the percentage a track is guaranteed from the wagering pool for each specific race. Rood explains:
“It’s the whole concept of pari-mutuel wagering,” he said. “All the (win/place/show) money goes in to a pool. Let’s say there’s $10,000 in the pool. The track takes $1,700 (17 percent), and whoever wins the race, the people who hold winning tickets share in the remaining $8,300.”
And those takeouts are higher for exactas, trifectas and the like, ranging from 19 percent to as much as 25 percent.
“I think there are a few reasons why horse racing continues to struggle, but the main reason is bettors haven’t been able to win enough,” said Jay Kornegay , executive vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. “The takeouts are too high, and the fields are way too small. That combination makes it difficult for a horse handicapper to win.”
Jason Simbal, CG Technology’s vice president of risk management, agrees with the wagering pool issue, though he’s not quite as miffed by the takeouts.
“I’m not as anti-takeout, because I’ve seen every casino up its hold on slots, and the handle stays the same,” Simbal said. “But I definitely agree that the size of the pool is an issue.”
Rebates factor into takeouts, which actually are used to pay a few different costs, as Simbal explained.
“Say you’ve got a $100 bet with a $16 takeout. A track, we’ll say Churchill Downs, gets $5. The state of Nevada, the Gaming Control Board, gets $3. And there’s operating costs of $1,” Simbal said. “I have $7 left. A rebate is me giving a piece of my profit margin back to the customer making the bet.”
The idea was that the rebate would incentivize the customer to make more bets. As Rood pointed out, the idea originated in Nevada, and it was really only used at a few books, but it ultimately drew the ire of California tracks and was legislated out by Nevada lawmakers in the late 1990s.
“Every other jurisdiction in the country does (rebates), but you can’t do that here,” Simbal said.
Perhaps just as key is the number of tracks – far too many – and the size of the fields – often too small.
“For Las Vegas customers, it sucks, as is shown by the decreasing handle figures,” Simbal said. “You get reduced fields, purses spread out. You’ll have a whole day where you have six to seven races, all below average. Over time, it dilutes the product. You’ve got small purses, not a lot of money in those pools, so there’s not a lot of incentive.
“There’s no reason for people to become interested, because the product isn’t good.”
Simbal then hit on a suggestion that he was hardly alone on – closing some tracks.
“If I could, I would consolidate tracks and consolidate the money, and get the best horses from all those (closed) tracks,” he said. “You make the pool bigger, which gives the bettor more of a return for their bet.”
Rood concurred: “There’s saturation. … So many tracks shouldn’t be operating. We need to contract 25 to 30 percent and send those horses to other tracks, to fill those fields.”
With too many tracks comes too many racing days. Kornegay pointed out that overseas, particularly in Asian horse racing markets, dates are much more limited. So when race day arrives, the product is solid.
“They get huge fields and huge excitement over there. They can have better quality fields and give the players a better chance of winning,” Kornegay said.
“They have racing twice a week,” Rood said of the Asian market. “You get the biggest pools, the biggest fields, and the sport is thriving over there.”
To mimic that, Kornegay suggests tracks lower their takeout percentage and cut back on racing days, which would create bigger, better fields.
“I know that’s easier said than done, but if we want to see this sport survive, they’re going to have to make some drastic changes, to make the sport appeal to a younger crowd.”
Which naturally segues into another big problem for horse racing: a dying betting demographic.
“Some old players are not playing anymore,” said John Avello, director of race and sports for The Wynn. “Their bankroll is depleted, they’re retired or whatever. The younger generation is not picking up that slack.”
There’s a couple of reasons for that. First, all the aforementioned issues make it much harder for horse players to win money. Second, handicapping horse racing is much more difficult than handicapping, say, an NFL game. The younger generation of sports bettors has been groomed on almost instant gratification, and isn’t interested in devoting the time or the patience required to win in a tight horse racing game.
“It takes a long time, and I don’t think they want to spend the time to learn it,” Avello said. “I could teach my wife to make the line on an NFL game. Then it comes down to handicapping. There’s statistics on two teams – that’s all the work you need to do.
“With horse racing, you have similar stats, but it could be eight to 10 horses.”
Furthering the lack of horse racing interest from younger bettors is the lack of visibility.
“It’s not on TV, it’s not in the forefront of any media,” Rood said. “It’s not like the old days, when it was one of the only games in town. Now, within 80 miles of almost anywhere, there’s bingo, slot parlors.
“Horse racing was the main gambling component. Now, there’s such a competitive environment for that dollar that it’s hard for horse racing to compete, because it does take time to study and a little patience. It’s not like slots or table games.”
Despite all the aforementioned issues and shortcomings, sportsbooks are far from considering throwing in the towel. Days like Saturday are a big reason why. Places around town will be packed for the Kentucky Derby, and the atmosphere will be electric.
“At the Venetian, from 2 to 3 p.m. Saturday, your mind will be blown,” Simbal said. “You’ll say, ‘Holy cow, this place is packed just as much as it is for the NCAA tournament.’ Horse racing is very important to us. We’re not like any of those big casinos. Race is a huge part of our business. We are trying to do everything possible.”
Kornegay and Rood both noted that there have been some positive moves of late from the industry.
“There’s been some improvement in some exotic wagering,” Kornegay said. “But they’re going to have to lower the takeout so players do win more when they do pick winners.”
Rood has taken pleasure in seeing tracks ditch synthetic surfaces, noting those made it more difficult for bettors and handicappers. But proclaiming a self-help mantra, Rood said there’s more work to do, and that sportsbooks alone can’t resurrect the sport’s fortunes.
“I’m willing to do anything to keep it vital. But horse racing has got to want to help itself,” he said.
Not surprisingly, Avello perhaps said it best as he looked to horse racing’s future.
“The sign outside my door says ‘race and sports book,’” Avello said. “I’m gonna continue to try to do what I can to make sure it stays that way.”
Holy $hit betting stat of the day: American Pharoah in worst possible post
Justin Hartling
When 60-1 Stanford was scratched from the Kentucky Derby Thursday it seemed as a bit of an afterthought, but the withdrawal could have huge impact on favorite American Pharoah.
Due to Stanford's withdrawal all the horses outside of of his initial posting will shift inside one gate. This will move American Pharoah from gate 18 to gate 17, a post that has never once produced a winner at the Run for the Roses.
There have been 36 horses to break from post 17 in the Kentucky Derby with just three finishing within the top three. Within the past 10 years, five horses starting from gate 17 have finished eleventh or worse, including Lawyer Ron who was 4/1 entering the race.
Justin Hartling
When 60-1 Stanford was scratched from the Kentucky Derby Thursday it seemed as a bit of an afterthought, but the withdrawal could have huge impact on favorite American Pharoah.
Due to Stanford's withdrawal all the horses outside of of his initial posting will shift inside one gate. This will move American Pharoah from gate 18 to gate 17, a post that has never once produced a winner at the Run for the Roses.
There have been 36 horses to break from post 17 in the Kentucky Derby with just three finishing within the top three. Within the past 10 years, five horses starting from gate 17 have finished eleventh or worse, including Lawyer Ron who was 4/1 entering the race.
Courtesy of Predicteform
#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1)
Elvis Trujillo/James M. Cassidy
After a stellar two year-old season, Ocho Ocho Ocho has not been able to get back to that level as a three year-old. He's been beaten by both Carpe Diem and Dortmund his last two starts by a combined 20 lengths. And while he does have a Reversal Form Cycle Pattern in his last start which is a positive, the door on his chances to even hit the board completely shut when he drew the dreaded one post.
The Play: Too Slow – the rail and slow final figures make his task all but insurmountable.
#2 Carpe Diem (8/1)
John R. Velazquez/Todd A. Pletcher
A $1.6mm purchase as a two year-old from the OBS March Sale, Carpe Diem has all but earned his purchase price back ($1.52mm and counting) in his brilliant nine month racing career. When describing a thoroughbred, brilliance is the ability to separate from the field without being a front runner. His only loss came in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile but surrounding that race are four open length wins.
He's raced at four different tracks using a variety of running styles (speed, stalk and close), a very difficult thing for any horse to do, and thus seemingly intuitive and not taught. His sire, Giant's Causeway had 23 Graded Stakes winners in 2014, ranking him #1 in North America in that category. His dam, is the only mother in the field to produce a Grade I stakes winner, which means from a breeding perspective he stands out.
His average final Pace Figure is 75.4, which ranks third in this race (behind Dortmund and Firing Line). More importantly, he's run back-to-back 77's which means that 77 is his foundation and a figure he should not dip below. You'll notice his last effort of 77.4 was a slight decline (from the previous 77.8) while running a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern, which means he won with something left in the tank. The slight decline combined with an easy win can be a better sign than a lifetime top with an easy win (note; American Pharoah).
So, there's a lot to like, but what can we knock? His Trainer Todd Pletcher and Jockey John Velazquez are a combined two for 65 in their Kentucky Derby history. These “connection” stats will certainly sway bettors off him. The two post position is a legitimate disadvantage. His jockey will only be able to see how the horse to his inside and outside break, which means he'll need to react quickly and likely not be able to have a plan (unlike American Pharoah who will likely leave quickly and float outside).
The Play: Top Contender – the inside draw will inflate his odds which means he'll be an underlay. Exactly what we are looking for in the top pick to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
#3 Materiality (12/1)
Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher
The most lightly race horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome “the granddaddy of Derby rules,” as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years-old – Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are ZERO for 57.
His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.
The Play: Regressor – The other runner to have never faced more than 9 foes (American Pharoah is the other), too many negatives to back.
#4 Tencedur (30/1)
Manuel Franco/George Weaver
This NY bred has only raced at Aqueduct, and up until his last effort, Tencendur wasn't even close to getting into the Derby. His last race was a vast improvement as he turned for home in the Wood Memorial on top at 21/1. Yes, he got reined in by a much improved Frosted but in the process he proved he can compete at the Grade I level.
His Pace Figures tell an interesting story as well with three positive dirt patterns, all run on off-tracks. Notice the 72 New Pace Top (NPT) on 3/7 followed by his last out lifetime best of 76.4. And while that final figure was a lifetime top, he did it with a manageable 4f figure avoiding the dreaded DTOP.
On a personal note, this author has been positive on Tencedur since his maiden win and up until last week, disappointment was abound. His average final figure is just 72.8 but he comes from one of the stronger broodmare (mother) lines in the field and I can't get off him now.
The Play: Longshot – the inside post and unknown jockey will keep his odds inflated, what you want to see for a reach underneath.
#5 Danzig Moon (30/1)
Julien R. Leparoux/ Mark E. Casse
A late finishing second to Carpe Diem in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes has quickly put Danzig Moon on the map, though he's only won one race lifetime. Bred in Canada, the last north-of-the-border Derby winner was Sunny's Halo in 1983.
He ran a 76 final figure in the Blue Grass but his prior effort was a 70 which means he moved forward six points, considered a big move along with a lifetime top. While an inside draw is usually not the best place to be, his running style just might appreciate the ability to duck right to the rail.
The Play: Regressor – he will be used by players in the bottom of exotics off his last race but we'll look elsewhere to fill out those slots.
#6 Mubtaahij (20/1)
Christophe Soumillon/MF de Kock
The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors as seven Irish bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of twelfth. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can't be knocked.
While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures (it's coming), his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive winning by eight lengths against a good group of international three-year olds. His connections are deeply based in Dubai and if the UAE Derby was a home game, the Kentucky Derby is a road trip.
The Play: Too Slow – a lot to ask of a three year-old, traveling around the world off his best race lifetime.
#7 El Kabeir (30/1)
Calvin Borel/John P. Terranova, II
With eight of his nine races run in NY, El Kabeir moves from taking on regional competition to national competition. He was clearly outrun by Frosted in the Wood while regressing in his Final Pace Figure from 76.2 on 2/7 to 75 on 3/7 to his most recent 74.7 on 4/5.
He gets the jockey services of Calvin Borel who has won the Derby three times with his off the pace style.
The Play: Too Slow – he looks to have peaked back in March.
#8 Dortmund (3/1)
Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert
Here's what we had to say before the Santa Anita Derby:
Undefeated in five lifetime starts, Dortmund has been nothing short of spectacular in his six month racing career. Only one other horse on the Derby trail are undefeated (Materiality), but between them they are also five for five.
He has been a model of consistency fighting gamely in every start while facing Graded Stakes competition in his last three starts. Trained by Bob Baffert who has won this race a record six times, it's hard to knock Dortmund off his current form. One thing to note in his running style is he does have a tendency to get complacent on the lead.
His final Pace Figure has regressed ever so slightly from 78.3 – 77.8 – 76.9 (most recent), but even that most recent 76.9 is still higher than any of his competitors have ever run on dirt. The odds on morning line favorite draws the rail and has three wins at Santa Anita but his total earnings of $690k is more than the entire field combined.
Dortmund won the Santa Anita Derby by four lengths, taking his lifetime record to six for six with earnings in excess of $1.25mm. His Final Pace Figure was 76.2, a slight regression off the prior regression off the 76.9 making it four races in a row where his final figure has decreased. He does possess a win at Churchill which does alleviate any concern about handling the surface. His sire, Big Brown, won the Kentucky Derby (2008), one of only three runners in this field that can stake that claim.
The Play: Fringe Contender – he's gone off as a massive favorite each race of his career, which makes his morning-line odds of 4/1 quite appealing.
#9 Bolo (30/1)
Rafael Bejarano/Carla Gaines
The only runner in the field to establish a clear foundation on turf (2-3 races with similar final figures), Bolo has made a smooth transition to running on dirt. There are those who claim he has “turf pedigree,” his two competitive efforts against Dortmund show he is on the cusp of being able to compete with the best three year-olds in the country.
His average final figure is 75.1, which is fifth highest in the field and is the only runner to show two positive Form Cycle Patterns back-to-back. Two races lifetime on dirt, with a 75.1/71.5 Compression (COMP) Pattern and a 73.2/73.8 New Pace Top (NPT) Pattern. Individually these two patterns are strong indicators of progression, back-to-back like this means the horse is coming into his own. The NPT is considered the strongest indicator of progression on dirt and it is of notice that he is the only runner with that indication (vs. the KY Oaks where there are 3 NPT runners).
Sure, he's only got two starts on dirt which is the fewest in the field but he has a couple fast 4f figures of 76 and 78 on turf. Also notice he's run in big fields (with the exception of the Santa Anita Derby). West Coast leading jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the call looking for his first in-the-money Kentucky Derby finish in what will be his tenth start.
The Play: Fringe Contender – positive Form Cycle Patterns, a decent post to allow for a variety of jockey tactics and morning-line of 30/1 make for an appealing longshot.
#10 Firing Line (12/1)
Gary L. Stevens/Simon Callaghan
A late developing colt, Firing Line has lost to Dortmund by just a head in two races. Combine that with jockey Gary Stevens and an excellent draw of the ten post (an 11.5% win percentage rate since 1930), and no wonder he's been made the co-fourth choice in this field.
Looking at his Pace Figures, his last race is cause for pause. He ran an 81.3/81.2 in the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths with the fastest 4f and final figure of all the starters. His average final figure is 76.5, the second highest in the field, behind only Dortmund. His four furlong average is 77.2, again, second highest in the field behind Ocho Ocho Ocho.
As a point of comparison, the winner of the 2014 Sunland Derby was Chitu who ran an 80.6 (get the 2014 Derby Pace Figures here). His 2014 Derby final figure was 75.7, which, while not terrible was still a five point regression.
The Play: Regressor – More likely that history repeats itself then this colt is able to pair up final figures.
#11 Stanford (30/1) - SCRATCHED
#12 International Star (20/1)
Miguel Mena/Michael J. Maker
The Midwest champ, International Star is on a three race winning streak, after taking down the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. He's earned over $1mm for Ken Ramsey, one of the perennial leading owners in the thoroughbred game.
His career average Final Pace Figure is 72.3, which is mid-pack amongst the starters. His most recent effort of 74 was a slight 1.3 regression, though he did run a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern. International Star is one of only three horses sired by a Derby winner – Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).
The Play: Longshot – Off the pace running style might suit Churchill, though his figures look a little light.
#13 Itsaknockout (30/1)
Luis Saez/Todd A. Pletcher
A distant fourth in the Florida Derby, 20 lengths behind both Upstart and Materiality, Itsaknockout is hard to figure considering the previous comments on the former two runners.
His final Pace Figure average in four races lifetime is under 70, with significant regression from 74 to his most recent 64 in the Florida Derby.
The Play: Too Slow – that's it, period.
#14 Keen Ice (50/1)
Kent J. Desormeaux/Dale L. Romans
With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160k, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You've got to hand it to his trainer, Dale Romans who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start (albeit 2% for running fifth). Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O'Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive.
His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74 but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a two year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern.
The Play: Mega longshot – if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.
#15 Frosted (15/1)
Joel Rosario/Kiaran P. McLaughlin
An early career “hanger” (a horse that comes close but doesn't win), Frosted was just one for six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.
His Final Pace figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12 point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.
The Play: Regressor – tough to imagine he can run back-to-back lifetime tops out of the blue.
#16 War Story (50/1)
Joseph Talamo/Thomas M. Amoss
Another Midwest runner, War Story has finished behind International Star in his last three starts by a total of eight lengths. The Louisiana Derby (his most recent race) was a chance for him to prove he could move forward to a level that would make him Derby competitive, unfortunately he did not.
His last race figures were 72.9/64.2, regression in both the final and four furlong figure from 74.9/71.
The Play: Regressor – Figures heading the wrong way combined with a “no-man's-land” 16 post for a runner without tactical speed looks too tough.
#17 Mr. Z (50/1)
Ramon A. Vazquez/Wayne D. Lukas
Here's what we had to say about Mr. Z prior to the Arkansas Derby.
A heavily campaigned three year-old, Mr. Z began his racing career in June of 2014 and has already raced 11 times. He's made over $550k and has hit the board in eight of his 11 starts, but only once has he gotten his picture taken. There is a long line of bettors who have backed Mr. Z to win and lost, given his heavily backed odds his last five starts.
Mr. Z did not disappoint his show backers as he ran a distant third to American Pharoah at odds of 20/1. His final Pace Figure of 75.3 was his second highest lifetime and a ten point positive jump from the prior effort.
He's got a modicum of tactical speed but that will be neutralized drawing the 17 post. Under normal conditions I would expect a Lukas trained long-shot horse to try and give headaches to a Baffert favorite, though in this case both runners have the same owner so it becomes rather unlikely.
The Play: Regressor – too much to do from the 17 post for a runner who has been campaigned like a seasoned racehorse.
#18 American Pharoah (5/2)
Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert
Here's what we had to say about American Pharoah prior to his Arkansas Derby victory.
The favorite in Vegas Derby futures as well as the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #4 at 5/1, American Pharoah has received more than his fair share of Derby fanfare. A winner of his last three in graded stakes competition by a combined 13 lengths, trainer Bob Baffert has done a tremendous job managing this lightly raced runner's career.
His 77.8 Reversal Pattern (REV) in late September of his two year-old season is a monster figure, so it was not surprising to see his regression back to a 72.1 (on an off track) in his first race as a three year-old. Bob Baffert could want to put more of a “bottom” in him and take him up to his near Derby performance this race, which means we should expect an open margin victory.
As projected, Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths, in what looked like a public workout. And, speaking of workouts (think practice), his last workout was by all accounts in the press, phenomenal, so much so that he has been compared to the best horses in the past 35 years.
From a breeding perspective, his sire Pioneerof the Nile ran second in the 2009 Derby while his dam, Littleprincessemma did little on the track. And while on paper and on the track he is already being called a Triple Crown contender, Pharoah is one of only two horses that has never run in a field of greater than nine horses, an important note as he takes on 19 others Saturday. The 18 post should suit his running style perfectly as it gives jockey, Victor Espinoza, a clear view of his competitors inside.
From a Pace Figure perspective his Arkansas Derby effort was an 80.2/78.9 (final/4furlong) Double Top (DTOP) Form Cycle Pattern. Defined as a race in which the horse has run its best 4F and final Pace Figures by a notable margin, it is considered a negative designation and a sign of potential regression.
The Play: Regressor – He could run through his last final figure as great horses can follow lifetime best after a lifetime best. The pre-race hype and morning-line favorite of odds of 5/2 make for a difficult decision on how to play the race unless you could bet him to win the Triple Crown.
#19 Upstart (15/1)
Jose L. Ortiz/Richard A Violette, Jr.
One of three NY Breds in the field, Upstart would be only the second NY bred to win the Derby (Funny Cide in 2002 was the other). In a similar vein to El Kabeir, his figures look like a horse that peaked early in his three year-old season.
The Play: Regressor – would need a big jump in his final figure to compete which looks extremely unlikely.
#20 Far Right (30/1)
Mike E. Smith/Ron Moquett
A distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, Far Right is a come-from-behind type runner who has been at the back of the pack in his last four starts which means he could be dead last coming from the outside post. Jockey Mike Smith stays aboard and is one of the best big race jocks in the business. Smith excels on late running horses (think Zenyatta), but his Derby race record is just one for 20.
His Final Pace Figure last race was a 76.5, a clear lifetime top and well above his career average of 71.4.
The Play: Too Slow – unless an unreal speed duel takes place up front, he will have too much work to do from way behind.
#21 Frammento (50/1)
No Rider/Nicholas P. Zito
After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, number 20. While you can't win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race.
He's earned only $140k, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time.
Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.
The Play: The first also eligible to race in the Derby, his odds of running were 50/1, while his odds of winning should be north of 100/1.
#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1)
Elvis Trujillo/James M. Cassidy
After a stellar two year-old season, Ocho Ocho Ocho has not been able to get back to that level as a three year-old. He's been beaten by both Carpe Diem and Dortmund his last two starts by a combined 20 lengths. And while he does have a Reversal Form Cycle Pattern in his last start which is a positive, the door on his chances to even hit the board completely shut when he drew the dreaded one post.
The Play: Too Slow – the rail and slow final figures make his task all but insurmountable.
#2 Carpe Diem (8/1)
John R. Velazquez/Todd A. Pletcher
A $1.6mm purchase as a two year-old from the OBS March Sale, Carpe Diem has all but earned his purchase price back ($1.52mm and counting) in his brilliant nine month racing career. When describing a thoroughbred, brilliance is the ability to separate from the field without being a front runner. His only loss came in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile but surrounding that race are four open length wins.
He's raced at four different tracks using a variety of running styles (speed, stalk and close), a very difficult thing for any horse to do, and thus seemingly intuitive and not taught. His sire, Giant's Causeway had 23 Graded Stakes winners in 2014, ranking him #1 in North America in that category. His dam, is the only mother in the field to produce a Grade I stakes winner, which means from a breeding perspective he stands out.
His average final Pace Figure is 75.4, which ranks third in this race (behind Dortmund and Firing Line). More importantly, he's run back-to-back 77's which means that 77 is his foundation and a figure he should not dip below. You'll notice his last effort of 77.4 was a slight decline (from the previous 77.8) while running a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern, which means he won with something left in the tank. The slight decline combined with an easy win can be a better sign than a lifetime top with an easy win (note; American Pharoah).
So, there's a lot to like, but what can we knock? His Trainer Todd Pletcher and Jockey John Velazquez are a combined two for 65 in their Kentucky Derby history. These “connection” stats will certainly sway bettors off him. The two post position is a legitimate disadvantage. His jockey will only be able to see how the horse to his inside and outside break, which means he'll need to react quickly and likely not be able to have a plan (unlike American Pharoah who will likely leave quickly and float outside).
The Play: Top Contender – the inside draw will inflate his odds which means he'll be an underlay. Exactly what we are looking for in the top pick to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
#3 Materiality (12/1)
Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher
The most lightly race horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome “the granddaddy of Derby rules,” as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years-old – Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are ZERO for 57.
His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.
The Play: Regressor – The other runner to have never faced more than 9 foes (American Pharoah is the other), too many negatives to back.
#4 Tencedur (30/1)
Manuel Franco/George Weaver
This NY bred has only raced at Aqueduct, and up until his last effort, Tencendur wasn't even close to getting into the Derby. His last race was a vast improvement as he turned for home in the Wood Memorial on top at 21/1. Yes, he got reined in by a much improved Frosted but in the process he proved he can compete at the Grade I level.
His Pace Figures tell an interesting story as well with three positive dirt patterns, all run on off-tracks. Notice the 72 New Pace Top (NPT) on 3/7 followed by his last out lifetime best of 76.4. And while that final figure was a lifetime top, he did it with a manageable 4f figure avoiding the dreaded DTOP.
On a personal note, this author has been positive on Tencedur since his maiden win and up until last week, disappointment was abound. His average final figure is just 72.8 but he comes from one of the stronger broodmare (mother) lines in the field and I can't get off him now.
The Play: Longshot – the inside post and unknown jockey will keep his odds inflated, what you want to see for a reach underneath.
#5 Danzig Moon (30/1)
Julien R. Leparoux/ Mark E. Casse
A late finishing second to Carpe Diem in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes has quickly put Danzig Moon on the map, though he's only won one race lifetime. Bred in Canada, the last north-of-the-border Derby winner was Sunny's Halo in 1983.
He ran a 76 final figure in the Blue Grass but his prior effort was a 70 which means he moved forward six points, considered a big move along with a lifetime top. While an inside draw is usually not the best place to be, his running style just might appreciate the ability to duck right to the rail.
The Play: Regressor – he will be used by players in the bottom of exotics off his last race but we'll look elsewhere to fill out those slots.
#6 Mubtaahij (20/1)
Christophe Soumillon/MF de Kock
The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors as seven Irish bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of twelfth. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can't be knocked.
While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures (it's coming), his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive winning by eight lengths against a good group of international three-year olds. His connections are deeply based in Dubai and if the UAE Derby was a home game, the Kentucky Derby is a road trip.
The Play: Too Slow – a lot to ask of a three year-old, traveling around the world off his best race lifetime.
#7 El Kabeir (30/1)
Calvin Borel/John P. Terranova, II
With eight of his nine races run in NY, El Kabeir moves from taking on regional competition to national competition. He was clearly outrun by Frosted in the Wood while regressing in his Final Pace Figure from 76.2 on 2/7 to 75 on 3/7 to his most recent 74.7 on 4/5.
He gets the jockey services of Calvin Borel who has won the Derby three times with his off the pace style.
The Play: Too Slow – he looks to have peaked back in March.
#8 Dortmund (3/1)
Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert
Here's what we had to say before the Santa Anita Derby:
Undefeated in five lifetime starts, Dortmund has been nothing short of spectacular in his six month racing career. Only one other horse on the Derby trail are undefeated (Materiality), but between them they are also five for five.
He has been a model of consistency fighting gamely in every start while facing Graded Stakes competition in his last three starts. Trained by Bob Baffert who has won this race a record six times, it's hard to knock Dortmund off his current form. One thing to note in his running style is he does have a tendency to get complacent on the lead.
His final Pace Figure has regressed ever so slightly from 78.3 – 77.8 – 76.9 (most recent), but even that most recent 76.9 is still higher than any of his competitors have ever run on dirt. The odds on morning line favorite draws the rail and has three wins at Santa Anita but his total earnings of $690k is more than the entire field combined.
Dortmund won the Santa Anita Derby by four lengths, taking his lifetime record to six for six with earnings in excess of $1.25mm. His Final Pace Figure was 76.2, a slight regression off the prior regression off the 76.9 making it four races in a row where his final figure has decreased. He does possess a win at Churchill which does alleviate any concern about handling the surface. His sire, Big Brown, won the Kentucky Derby (2008), one of only three runners in this field that can stake that claim.
The Play: Fringe Contender – he's gone off as a massive favorite each race of his career, which makes his morning-line odds of 4/1 quite appealing.
#9 Bolo (30/1)
Rafael Bejarano/Carla Gaines
The only runner in the field to establish a clear foundation on turf (2-3 races with similar final figures), Bolo has made a smooth transition to running on dirt. There are those who claim he has “turf pedigree,” his two competitive efforts against Dortmund show he is on the cusp of being able to compete with the best three year-olds in the country.
His average final figure is 75.1, which is fifth highest in the field and is the only runner to show two positive Form Cycle Patterns back-to-back. Two races lifetime on dirt, with a 75.1/71.5 Compression (COMP) Pattern and a 73.2/73.8 New Pace Top (NPT) Pattern. Individually these two patterns are strong indicators of progression, back-to-back like this means the horse is coming into his own. The NPT is considered the strongest indicator of progression on dirt and it is of notice that he is the only runner with that indication (vs. the KY Oaks where there are 3 NPT runners).
Sure, he's only got two starts on dirt which is the fewest in the field but he has a couple fast 4f figures of 76 and 78 on turf. Also notice he's run in big fields (with the exception of the Santa Anita Derby). West Coast leading jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the call looking for his first in-the-money Kentucky Derby finish in what will be his tenth start.
The Play: Fringe Contender – positive Form Cycle Patterns, a decent post to allow for a variety of jockey tactics and morning-line of 30/1 make for an appealing longshot.
#10 Firing Line (12/1)
Gary L. Stevens/Simon Callaghan
A late developing colt, Firing Line has lost to Dortmund by just a head in two races. Combine that with jockey Gary Stevens and an excellent draw of the ten post (an 11.5% win percentage rate since 1930), and no wonder he's been made the co-fourth choice in this field.
Looking at his Pace Figures, his last race is cause for pause. He ran an 81.3/81.2 in the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths with the fastest 4f and final figure of all the starters. His average final figure is 76.5, the second highest in the field, behind only Dortmund. His four furlong average is 77.2, again, second highest in the field behind Ocho Ocho Ocho.
As a point of comparison, the winner of the 2014 Sunland Derby was Chitu who ran an 80.6 (get the 2014 Derby Pace Figures here). His 2014 Derby final figure was 75.7, which, while not terrible was still a five point regression.
The Play: Regressor – More likely that history repeats itself then this colt is able to pair up final figures.
#11 Stanford (30/1) - SCRATCHED
#12 International Star (20/1)
Miguel Mena/Michael J. Maker
The Midwest champ, International Star is on a three race winning streak, after taking down the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. He's earned over $1mm for Ken Ramsey, one of the perennial leading owners in the thoroughbred game.
His career average Final Pace Figure is 72.3, which is mid-pack amongst the starters. His most recent effort of 74 was a slight 1.3 regression, though he did run a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern. International Star is one of only three horses sired by a Derby winner – Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).
The Play: Longshot – Off the pace running style might suit Churchill, though his figures look a little light.
#13 Itsaknockout (30/1)
Luis Saez/Todd A. Pletcher
A distant fourth in the Florida Derby, 20 lengths behind both Upstart and Materiality, Itsaknockout is hard to figure considering the previous comments on the former two runners.
His final Pace Figure average in four races lifetime is under 70, with significant regression from 74 to his most recent 64 in the Florida Derby.
The Play: Too Slow – that's it, period.
#14 Keen Ice (50/1)
Kent J. Desormeaux/Dale L. Romans
With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160k, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You've got to hand it to his trainer, Dale Romans who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start (albeit 2% for running fifth). Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O'Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive.
His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74 but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a two year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern.
The Play: Mega longshot – if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.
#15 Frosted (15/1)
Joel Rosario/Kiaran P. McLaughlin
An early career “hanger” (a horse that comes close but doesn't win), Frosted was just one for six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.
His Final Pace figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12 point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.
The Play: Regressor – tough to imagine he can run back-to-back lifetime tops out of the blue.
#16 War Story (50/1)
Joseph Talamo/Thomas M. Amoss
Another Midwest runner, War Story has finished behind International Star in his last three starts by a total of eight lengths. The Louisiana Derby (his most recent race) was a chance for him to prove he could move forward to a level that would make him Derby competitive, unfortunately he did not.
His last race figures were 72.9/64.2, regression in both the final and four furlong figure from 74.9/71.
The Play: Regressor – Figures heading the wrong way combined with a “no-man's-land” 16 post for a runner without tactical speed looks too tough.
#17 Mr. Z (50/1)
Ramon A. Vazquez/Wayne D. Lukas
Here's what we had to say about Mr. Z prior to the Arkansas Derby.
A heavily campaigned three year-old, Mr. Z began his racing career in June of 2014 and has already raced 11 times. He's made over $550k and has hit the board in eight of his 11 starts, but only once has he gotten his picture taken. There is a long line of bettors who have backed Mr. Z to win and lost, given his heavily backed odds his last five starts.
Mr. Z did not disappoint his show backers as he ran a distant third to American Pharoah at odds of 20/1. His final Pace Figure of 75.3 was his second highest lifetime and a ten point positive jump from the prior effort.
He's got a modicum of tactical speed but that will be neutralized drawing the 17 post. Under normal conditions I would expect a Lukas trained long-shot horse to try and give headaches to a Baffert favorite, though in this case both runners have the same owner so it becomes rather unlikely.
The Play: Regressor – too much to do from the 17 post for a runner who has been campaigned like a seasoned racehorse.
#18 American Pharoah (5/2)
Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert
Here's what we had to say about American Pharoah prior to his Arkansas Derby victory.
The favorite in Vegas Derby futures as well as the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #4 at 5/1, American Pharoah has received more than his fair share of Derby fanfare. A winner of his last three in graded stakes competition by a combined 13 lengths, trainer Bob Baffert has done a tremendous job managing this lightly raced runner's career.
His 77.8 Reversal Pattern (REV) in late September of his two year-old season is a monster figure, so it was not surprising to see his regression back to a 72.1 (on an off track) in his first race as a three year-old. Bob Baffert could want to put more of a “bottom” in him and take him up to his near Derby performance this race, which means we should expect an open margin victory.
As projected, Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths, in what looked like a public workout. And, speaking of workouts (think practice), his last workout was by all accounts in the press, phenomenal, so much so that he has been compared to the best horses in the past 35 years.
From a breeding perspective, his sire Pioneerof the Nile ran second in the 2009 Derby while his dam, Littleprincessemma did little on the track. And while on paper and on the track he is already being called a Triple Crown contender, Pharoah is one of only two horses that has never run in a field of greater than nine horses, an important note as he takes on 19 others Saturday. The 18 post should suit his running style perfectly as it gives jockey, Victor Espinoza, a clear view of his competitors inside.
From a Pace Figure perspective his Arkansas Derby effort was an 80.2/78.9 (final/4furlong) Double Top (DTOP) Form Cycle Pattern. Defined as a race in which the horse has run its best 4F and final Pace Figures by a notable margin, it is considered a negative designation and a sign of potential regression.
The Play: Regressor – He could run through his last final figure as great horses can follow lifetime best after a lifetime best. The pre-race hype and morning-line favorite of odds of 5/2 make for a difficult decision on how to play the race unless you could bet him to win the Triple Crown.
#19 Upstart (15/1)
Jose L. Ortiz/Richard A Violette, Jr.
One of three NY Breds in the field, Upstart would be only the second NY bred to win the Derby (Funny Cide in 2002 was the other). In a similar vein to El Kabeir, his figures look like a horse that peaked early in his three year-old season.
The Play: Regressor – would need a big jump in his final figure to compete which looks extremely unlikely.
#20 Far Right (30/1)
Mike E. Smith/Ron Moquett
A distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, Far Right is a come-from-behind type runner who has been at the back of the pack in his last four starts which means he could be dead last coming from the outside post. Jockey Mike Smith stays aboard and is one of the best big race jocks in the business. Smith excels on late running horses (think Zenyatta), but his Derby race record is just one for 20.
His Final Pace Figure last race was a 76.5, a clear lifetime top and well above his career average of 71.4.
The Play: Too Slow – unless an unreal speed duel takes place up front, he will have too much work to do from way behind.
#21 Frammento (50/1)
No Rider/Nicholas P. Zito
After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, number 20. While you can't win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race.
He's earned only $140k, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time.
Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.
The Play: The first also eligible to race in the Derby, his odds of running were 50/1, while his odds of winning should be north of 100/1.
Hondo
Hondo’s full of Carpe
Hondo fired up an air ball Friday night with the Nets, who were obliterated by the Hawks to raise the accounts payable to an even Steven 200 sturtzes.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch expects to hit the bullseye with Archer — 10 units on the Rays. Also, Mr. Aitch will put a unit on Carpe Diem to come up roses at the Derby.
Hondo’s full of Carpe
Hondo fired up an air ball Friday night with the Nets, who were obliterated by the Hawks to raise the accounts payable to an even Steven 200 sturtzes.
Saturday: Mr. Aitch expects to hit the bullseye with Archer — 10 units on the Rays. Also, Mr. Aitch will put a unit on Carpe Diem to come up roses at the Derby.
