Three live long-shot bets for the 2014 Kentucky Derby
It’s Kentucky Derby time. That means it’s time to shop for a few long shots worth backing. They might not hit the board, but if they do you will be rewarded for it.
In a field as wide open and generally undistinguished as the one racing bettors are faced with this year, the longer shots are the place to look. Here are three potential Kentucky Derby long shots that should go off at better than 20/1:
Ride On Curlin (+2,400)
If Hollywood wrote a story about this horse you would dismiss it as unbelievable.
The trainer, nicknamed Bronco, toils at the lowest levels of the game and has fewer starts per year than Todd Pletcher has most weeks. He convinced an owner to buy a yearling - the first for either of them - and that was this horse. He’s a son of the great Curlin, so he is bred to run all day.
Calvin Borel is in the saddle - the magician who has hugged the rail to three Kentucky Derby wins. Borel is riding pretty horribly these days, but that doesn’t matter on Derby day. He has been racing well this spring despite not having a stakes win and he has a very versatile running style that should suit the situation. Stranger things have happened.
Candy Boy (+2,500)
California Chrome is likely going to be the most overwhelming favorite since Big Brown in 2008. Hoppertunity is likely to be no worse than the third choice. Those two finished atop the Santa Anita Derby. In third was this forgotten horse.
He was clearly not as good as the top two that day, but he had also been off for two months and was shaking off a lot of rust. The time before that, he had a very professional and convincing win. Gary Stevens is in the irons and there’s no better guy to manage a horse - or to win a big race right now.
There are a lot of horses that will look to be on or near the pace early on and will be in trouble if they can’t get there. This horse would rather be just off the pace, but has shown that he can deal with having to move up later. He’s ready for a big effort.
Wildcat Red (+2,500)
When a horse has been in the lead and is passed in the stretch, you almost always see it change. They sense they are beaten, retreat into themselves a little, and let the race happen around them. It’s in their nature, and especially common in younger horses like these.
In the Florida Derby, this horse set the pace the whole way before being passed at the top of the stretch by Constitution. Instead of giving up, though, he got mad and dug in.
It became a truly epic stretch duel. He wound up losing by a little more than a neck, but I saw more heart and determination in that horse than I ever expect from three year olds in the spring. Bettors aren’t in love with the breeding, the trainer, or the constant jockey changes, but when a horse is that tough in a race this wide open, he’s worth a look.
It’s Kentucky Derby time. That means it’s time to shop for a few long shots worth backing. They might not hit the board, but if they do you will be rewarded for it.
In a field as wide open and generally undistinguished as the one racing bettors are faced with this year, the longer shots are the place to look. Here are three potential Kentucky Derby long shots that should go off at better than 20/1:
Ride On Curlin (+2,400)
If Hollywood wrote a story about this horse you would dismiss it as unbelievable.
The trainer, nicknamed Bronco, toils at the lowest levels of the game and has fewer starts per year than Todd Pletcher has most weeks. He convinced an owner to buy a yearling - the first for either of them - and that was this horse. He’s a son of the great Curlin, so he is bred to run all day.
Calvin Borel is in the saddle - the magician who has hugged the rail to three Kentucky Derby wins. Borel is riding pretty horribly these days, but that doesn’t matter on Derby day. He has been racing well this spring despite not having a stakes win and he has a very versatile running style that should suit the situation. Stranger things have happened.
Candy Boy (+2,500)
California Chrome is likely going to be the most overwhelming favorite since Big Brown in 2008. Hoppertunity is likely to be no worse than the third choice. Those two finished atop the Santa Anita Derby. In third was this forgotten horse.
He was clearly not as good as the top two that day, but he had also been off for two months and was shaking off a lot of rust. The time before that, he had a very professional and convincing win. Gary Stevens is in the irons and there’s no better guy to manage a horse - or to win a big race right now.
There are a lot of horses that will look to be on or near the pace early on and will be in trouble if they can’t get there. This horse would rather be just off the pace, but has shown that he can deal with having to move up later. He’s ready for a big effort.
Wildcat Red (+2,500)
When a horse has been in the lead and is passed in the stretch, you almost always see it change. They sense they are beaten, retreat into themselves a little, and let the race happen around them. It’s in their nature, and especially common in younger horses like these.
In the Florida Derby, this horse set the pace the whole way before being passed at the top of the stretch by Constitution. Instead of giving up, though, he got mad and dug in.
It became a truly epic stretch duel. He wound up losing by a little more than a neck, but I saw more heart and determination in that horse than I ever expect from three year olds in the spring. Bettors aren’t in love with the breeding, the trainer, or the constant jockey changes, but when a horse is that tough in a race this wide open, he’s worth a look.
Kentucky Derby by Predicteform
Predicteform Analysis of the 2014 Kentucky Derby - The Daily Fix - WSJ
Predicteform Analysis of the 2014 Kentucky Derby - The Daily Fix - WSJ
Untapable huge favorite to win Kentucky Oaks
Justin Hartling May 1, 2014
Despite starting from post 13, Untapable is a -200 favorite to take home the Kentucky Oaks crown. If Untapable does manage to take home the lilies, she will only be the second horse to win from the outside post since 1930.
Here are a complete list of odds according to Sportsbook.com:
Untapable -200
Fashion Plate +600
My Miss Sophia +600
Rosalind +800
Ria Antonia +800
Unbridled Forever +800
Sugar Shock +1000
Got Lucky +2000
Thank You Marylou +2500
Kiss Moon +2500
Please Explain +3500
Empress of Midway +3500
Aurelias Belle +4000
Justin Hartling May 1, 2014
Despite starting from post 13, Untapable is a -200 favorite to take home the Kentucky Oaks crown. If Untapable does manage to take home the lilies, she will only be the second horse to win from the outside post since 1930.
Here are a complete list of odds according to Sportsbook.com:
Untapable -200
Fashion Plate +600
My Miss Sophia +600
Rosalind +800
Ria Antonia +800
Unbridled Forever +800
Sugar Shock +1000
Got Lucky +2000
Thank You Marylou +2500
Kiss Moon +2500
Please Explain +3500
Empress of Midway +3500
Aurelias Belle +4000
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w-thumbs!^Derby Contenders - Part I
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
CALIFORNIA CHROME
TRAINER: Art Sherman (Debut)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (1 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: It’s pretty safe to say you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would have thought he’d be your 2014 Kentucky Derby favorite at the end of 2013. He did win three of seven starts but all of his wins came against California breds over synthetic surfaces and he was off the board in both of his starts against open company as well as his lone start going two turns, which was his conventional dirt debut. He closed out the season on a high note, winning a Cal-bred stakes in his first start with Victor Espinoza in the saddle
THIS YEAR: In a word, perfection. He’s been unmatched and undefeated in three starts, winning by a combined 18 lengths. He led all sophomores with 150 Derby points.
CONNECTIONS: The now 77-year-old Sherman was the exercise rider and rode the train from California with 1955 Derby winner Swaps, coincidentally your last Cal-bred winner of the roses. Espinoza won the 2002 renewal with War Emblem.
WORTH NOTING: It’s been said he’s not the best shipper. This will be his first start outside of CA and he isn’t scheduled to arrive in Louisville until Monday or Tuesday of Derby week.
FAIR PRICE: He’ll be the overwhelming favorite…..easily half the price of the second choice. If you’re a fan, I wouldn’t bet him to win at anything less than 3-1
DANCE WITH FATE
TRAINER: Peter Eurton (Debut)
JOCKEY: Corey Nakatani (0 for 16)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack
AS A JUVENILE: A winner of just one of five starts, he did finish second in consecutive grade 1 races, the Del Futurity on synthetic and Front Runner at Santa Anita on dirt, before closing out the season with a dull try in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after getting bothered at the start of the race.
THIS YEAR: In a word, non-conforming. He’s run three times this year, twice over synthetics, including a hard charging win in the Blue Grass last out and once on turf, hardly a traditional way to get to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.
CONNECTIONS: Considered by some to be the best active rider to have never won a Derby, this will be Nakatani’s 17th try while Eurton is taking his first crack at it. Speaking of Eurton, he’s a solid if not spectacular trainer on the West Coast that usually hits at around 17%
WORTH NOTING: Winless in his two starts over conventional dirt, connections were non-committal as to running after the Blue Grass score stating that was indeed the race they had circled on their calendar this spring.
FAIR PRICE: I know those 108 Derby points look great on paper but don’t let them fool you as they were almost exclusively earned in the Blue Grass last out over the Polytrack. If you like this guy anyway, you shouldn’t accept anything less than 18-1
VICAR’S IN TROUBLE
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Rosie Napravnik (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Third in his debut over the Keeneland Polytrack in a sprint, he broke his maiden emphatically by 13 lengths off of a two month break in mid-December going six furlongs over a course labeled good in 1:10 3/5.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. A couple of convincing scores in the LeComte and most recently in the Louisiana Derby sandwich a troubled trip third as the tepid favorite in the Risen Star in which he was caught extremely wide the entire way from post 13.
CONNECTIONS: One of three that trainer Maker has pointed to the race. One of two that owner Ken Ramsey has pointed to the race. Since the beginning of 2013, Maker and Napravnik have teamed up to win at a solid 26%.
WORTH NOTING: Napravnik is married to one of Maker’s top assistants, Joe Sharp and is looking to become the first female rider to win the Derby.
FAIR PRICE: Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one vying for second favoritism based on his consistency and daylight score last out. He’ll also take money due to the presence of Rosie. With that said, I still think you’ll get and should demand 8-1.
SAMRAAT
TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Stalking to just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A perfect three for three with all of his wins coming against fellow New York breds, Samraat won by a combined 25 ¾ lengths, including a 16 ¾ length thrashing of the Damon Runyon.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent, one of the, if not THE best word when it comes to the Derby Trail. Had trouble shaking fellow statebred Uncle Sigh in his two stakes wins this year but followed them up with arguably his best effort when rerallying to grab the place money in the G1 Wood Memorial in his latest.
CONNECTIONS: Violette has been an important part of the training landscape in both New York and Florida for many years while Ortiz has quickly established himself as one of the top riders in New York, the toughest jocks colony in the country.
WORTH NOTING: Jose’s brother Irad Jr. is scheduled to ride Samraat’s rival and fellow New York bred Uncle Sigh in the Derby. They’ll be the first brothers to ride against each other for the roses since Sam and Eddie Maple did so 30 years ago in 1984.
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FAIR PRICE: It’s amazing what a single loss can do. If he’d have won the Wood Memorial he would have been unbeaten in six starts and easily the second choice. Now, you hardly hear a word about him, which is a good thing if you’re a fan because you’re likely looking at a juicy 15-1 or so now.
WICKED STRONG
TRAINER: Jimmy Jerkens (Debut)
JOCKEY: Rajiv Maragh (0 for 3)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack
AS A JUVENILE: A second place finish in the slop in his debut was followed up by an impressive maiden score when stretching out to a mile against a highly regarded field. He closed out the season with a tenacious third place finish in the G2 Remsen behind a couple of Derby Trail casualties in Honor Code and Cairo Prince.
THIS YEAR: In a word, surprising. A buzz horse coming into the season, he was quickly dismissed by many after an abysmal run in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. A fourth place finish in an ultra-tough allowance contest that yielded G1 Florida Derby winner Constitution restored his connections’ faith a little bit. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens convinced the owners to go on to the G1 Wood Memorial and they were rewarded with a rousing score over a pair of undefeated colts in Samraat and Social Inclusion.
CONNECTIONS: Back in 2009, Jerkens had the favorite going into Derby week with Quality Road but was forced to withdraw early on in the week due to a quarter crack problem that plagued him throughout his career. Maragh has ridden in the event three times and is arguably riding in the best shape of his career.
WORTH NOTING: Named after the city of Boston and the thousands of men and women who responded to and survived the Boston Marathon bombings of 2013.
FAIR PRICE: Another who very well could vie for second favoritism based on his big run in the Wood Memorial I’d say 7-1 is about what you should expect on him.
DANZA
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Bravo (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A hard fought debut score after dueling throughout at Saratoga followed by a third place finish in the G2 Saratoga Special in which he changed tactics and came running late from the back of the pack.
THIS YEAR: In a word, meteoric. He finished third off of a six and half month layoff behind more heralded stablemate Anchor Down before his connections decided on the G1 Arkansas Derby over the G1 Blue Grass because he probably wouldn’t have made the field in what was an already overfilled Blue Grass. The result: a monstrous score in the crown jewel of the Oaklawn Park meeting.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher of course is famously battling his 1 for 36 mark in America’s greatest race while Bravo has had very little experience here. Throughout the year Pletcher will use Bravo as a second tier guy behind Velazquez and Castellano and to go out of town for stakes, hence Bravo riding Danza last out.
WORTH NOTING: Connections are trying to get actor/comedian Tony Danza to the Derby.
FAIR PRICE: A tricky question to answer since you just got Pletcher at $84!!! I can see him taking money simply because of that and the fact that he was running late in the game. You still need to get 20-1 on this colt.
HOPPERTUNITY
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: He was unraced, which means he will be looking to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without running as a juvenile.
THIS YEAR: In a word, spotty. When he wins, he looks like a solid racehorse, like he did in his maiden tally and through the stretch of a roughly run Rebel which he gutted out. But when he doesn’t win, he looks ordinary at best, as evident by his fourth place finish in the Risen Star. Last out looked like a quintessential prep as I don’t believe he was persevered with whatsoever.
CONNECTIONS: Both know what it’s like to wear the roses and almost pulled it off as a team in 2012 with Bodemeister who finished a tough luck second. Baffert won this in ’97 with Silver Charm, ’98 with Real Quiet and ’02 with War Emblem while Smith shocked the world with 50-1 Giacomo in ’05. Together they win plenty of races out in California and across the country, most famously with Game On Dude.
WORTH NOTING: Perhaps trying to play catch-up for lack of a juvenile campaign, this will be Hoppertunity’s sixth start of the year and third trip out of California.
FAIR PRICE: If it wasn’t for the aforementioned “Curse of Apollo” I’m pretty sure he’d be your clear cut second choice. But with that looming over his head as well as a long sophomore campaign just to get into the Derby I’m thinking you need 8-1 on him.
INTENSE HOLIDAY
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 15)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from the back of the pack
AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his maiden at second asking in his first start around two turns, Intense Holiday ran off the board in a series of stakes – G1 Champagne, G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen – while always putting in somewhat of a menacing run.
THIS YEAR: It looked like we were going to be seeing more of the 2013 version of this colt when he finished third, complete with a “sneaky good” move in the G2 Holy Bull. But that long stretch at the Fair Grounds brought the best out of him as he qualified for the Derby with an exciting rally from far back to win the G2 Risen Star in the last strides. He appeared tired when he hit the rail in mid-stretch last out in the G1 Louisiana Derby but still managed to hold the place.
CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most prolific trainer/jockey combo of the past 20 years, they’ve each won the roses but haven’t done it together. Pletcher won it in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez grabbed the money the following year with Animal Kingdom. Though Javier Castellano rides his share of the barn, Johnny V. is still one of the main guys in Pletcher’s barn.
WORTH NOTING: Owner Starlight Racing is enjoying this springtime as they not only have this guy in the Derby but their first “big horse,” Ashado, was just announced as an inductee into the National Museum and Hall of Fame this summer at Saratoga. Ashado was trained and ridden by Pletcher and Velazquez.
FAIR PRICE: I can’t put my finger on it but we really haven’t heard much buzz from the Fair Grounds Derby contingent this season. With that said, you’ll probably be able to get anywhere from 15-1 to 20-1 on him.
WILDCAT RED
TRAINER: Jose Garoffalo (Debut)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He hit the wire first in all three of his starts but was disqualified from his third and final win of the year in a Florida bred stakes race for bearing out in the stretch.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. He lost the Gulfstream Park Derby by a head, galloped home clear in the G3 Hutcheson, won the G2 Fountain of Youth by a desperate head over rival General a Rod then just missed by a neck last out when his rider John Velazquez let the winner, Constitution, up the rail for the neck victory.
CONNECTIONS: Garoffalo is new to the big stage but has done a fine job in Florida while Saez winds up here after losing his Derby horse, Cairo Prince, to an ankle chip. The two did team up to win the Fountain of Youth.
WORTH NOTING: For a horse as consistent as he is, he’s four for seven in his career with three seconds, he’s had a tough time keeping a rider on his back. In fact, this will be the first time in five starts this year that he’ll be ridden by a jockey who’s already been aboard.
FAIR PRICE: I haven’t seen too many horses this year, or ever frankly, that love getting into a dogfight as much as this guy. And he gets into plenty of them. While that’s a great quality, especially in a race like this, you’re still going to need to command value on a horse like him. 18-1 is the least you can take.
RIDE ON CURLIN
TRAINER: Billy Gowan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 11)
RUNNING STYLE: Settles in mid-pack and makes one run.
AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his record in track record time second out at Ellis Park, it was strictly stakes competition in his final three starts of the year. A fourth place finish in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill was followed up by a fantastic effort in the G1 Champagne where he was third behind Havana and Honor Code and a third place finish in the Street Sense at Churchill.
THIS YEAR: In a word, frustrating. He started the year with an easy allowance score but then had a strange strip in the G3 Southwest when he was 8 wide, wasn’t ridden as aggressively as he should have been when third in a roughly run G2 Rebel then finally was able to work out a decent trip and make a solid run for the place money, and more importantly, place Derby points, last out in the G1 Arkansas Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Local boy Billy Gowan is looking to fulfill every Kentucky trainers’ lifelong dream in his debut and we all know about Borel’s exploits in the race, winning three of these in four years with Street Sense in ’07, Mine That Bird in ’09 and Super Saver in 2010.
WORTH NOTING: His owner, Dan Dougherty, is a Louisville native and local furniture store owner. A Louisville resident hasn’t won the Derby in over 100 years.
FAIR PRICE: The words “fair price” and “Calvin Borel” will never be compatible in a sentence regarding the Kentucky Derby ever again. Still, I think he’ll get lost in the shuffle enough where you’ll get the 20-1 you should get on him. He’d be 5-10 points higher with another jock.
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
CALIFORNIA CHROME
TRAINER: Art Sherman (Debut)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (1 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: It’s pretty safe to say you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would have thought he’d be your 2014 Kentucky Derby favorite at the end of 2013. He did win three of seven starts but all of his wins came against California breds over synthetic surfaces and he was off the board in both of his starts against open company as well as his lone start going two turns, which was his conventional dirt debut. He closed out the season on a high note, winning a Cal-bred stakes in his first start with Victor Espinoza in the saddle
THIS YEAR: In a word, perfection. He’s been unmatched and undefeated in three starts, winning by a combined 18 lengths. He led all sophomores with 150 Derby points.
CONNECTIONS: The now 77-year-old Sherman was the exercise rider and rode the train from California with 1955 Derby winner Swaps, coincidentally your last Cal-bred winner of the roses. Espinoza won the 2002 renewal with War Emblem.
WORTH NOTING: It’s been said he’s not the best shipper. This will be his first start outside of CA and he isn’t scheduled to arrive in Louisville until Monday or Tuesday of Derby week.
FAIR PRICE: He’ll be the overwhelming favorite…..easily half the price of the second choice. If you’re a fan, I wouldn’t bet him to win at anything less than 3-1
DANCE WITH FATE
TRAINER: Peter Eurton (Debut)
JOCKEY: Corey Nakatani (0 for 16)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack
AS A JUVENILE: A winner of just one of five starts, he did finish second in consecutive grade 1 races, the Del Futurity on synthetic and Front Runner at Santa Anita on dirt, before closing out the season with a dull try in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after getting bothered at the start of the race.
THIS YEAR: In a word, non-conforming. He’s run three times this year, twice over synthetics, including a hard charging win in the Blue Grass last out and once on turf, hardly a traditional way to get to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.
CONNECTIONS: Considered by some to be the best active rider to have never won a Derby, this will be Nakatani’s 17th try while Eurton is taking his first crack at it. Speaking of Eurton, he’s a solid if not spectacular trainer on the West Coast that usually hits at around 17%
WORTH NOTING: Winless in his two starts over conventional dirt, connections were non-committal as to running after the Blue Grass score stating that was indeed the race they had circled on their calendar this spring.
FAIR PRICE: I know those 108 Derby points look great on paper but don’t let them fool you as they were almost exclusively earned in the Blue Grass last out over the Polytrack. If you like this guy anyway, you shouldn’t accept anything less than 18-1
VICAR’S IN TROUBLE
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Rosie Napravnik (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Third in his debut over the Keeneland Polytrack in a sprint, he broke his maiden emphatically by 13 lengths off of a two month break in mid-December going six furlongs over a course labeled good in 1:10 3/5.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. A couple of convincing scores in the LeComte and most recently in the Louisiana Derby sandwich a troubled trip third as the tepid favorite in the Risen Star in which he was caught extremely wide the entire way from post 13.
CONNECTIONS: One of three that trainer Maker has pointed to the race. One of two that owner Ken Ramsey has pointed to the race. Since the beginning of 2013, Maker and Napravnik have teamed up to win at a solid 26%.
WORTH NOTING: Napravnik is married to one of Maker’s top assistants, Joe Sharp and is looking to become the first female rider to win the Derby.
FAIR PRICE: Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one vying for second favoritism based on his consistency and daylight score last out. He’ll also take money due to the presence of Rosie. With that said, I still think you’ll get and should demand 8-1.
SAMRAAT
TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Stalking to just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A perfect three for three with all of his wins coming against fellow New York breds, Samraat won by a combined 25 ¾ lengths, including a 16 ¾ length thrashing of the Damon Runyon.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent, one of the, if not THE best word when it comes to the Derby Trail. Had trouble shaking fellow statebred Uncle Sigh in his two stakes wins this year but followed them up with arguably his best effort when rerallying to grab the place money in the G1 Wood Memorial in his latest.
CONNECTIONS: Violette has been an important part of the training landscape in both New York and Florida for many years while Ortiz has quickly established himself as one of the top riders in New York, the toughest jocks colony in the country.
WORTH NOTING: Jose’s brother Irad Jr. is scheduled to ride Samraat’s rival and fellow New York bred Uncle Sigh in the Derby. They’ll be the first brothers to ride against each other for the roses since Sam and Eddie Maple did so 30 years ago in 1984.
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FAIR PRICE: It’s amazing what a single loss can do. If he’d have won the Wood Memorial he would have been unbeaten in six starts and easily the second choice. Now, you hardly hear a word about him, which is a good thing if you’re a fan because you’re likely looking at a juicy 15-1 or so now.
WICKED STRONG
TRAINER: Jimmy Jerkens (Debut)
JOCKEY: Rajiv Maragh (0 for 3)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack
AS A JUVENILE: A second place finish in the slop in his debut was followed up by an impressive maiden score when stretching out to a mile against a highly regarded field. He closed out the season with a tenacious third place finish in the G2 Remsen behind a couple of Derby Trail casualties in Honor Code and Cairo Prince.
THIS YEAR: In a word, surprising. A buzz horse coming into the season, he was quickly dismissed by many after an abysmal run in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. A fourth place finish in an ultra-tough allowance contest that yielded G1 Florida Derby winner Constitution restored his connections’ faith a little bit. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens convinced the owners to go on to the G1 Wood Memorial and they were rewarded with a rousing score over a pair of undefeated colts in Samraat and Social Inclusion.
CONNECTIONS: Back in 2009, Jerkens had the favorite going into Derby week with Quality Road but was forced to withdraw early on in the week due to a quarter crack problem that plagued him throughout his career. Maragh has ridden in the event three times and is arguably riding in the best shape of his career.
WORTH NOTING: Named after the city of Boston and the thousands of men and women who responded to and survived the Boston Marathon bombings of 2013.
FAIR PRICE: Another who very well could vie for second favoritism based on his big run in the Wood Memorial I’d say 7-1 is about what you should expect on him.
DANZA
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Bravo (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: A hard fought debut score after dueling throughout at Saratoga followed by a third place finish in the G2 Saratoga Special in which he changed tactics and came running late from the back of the pack.
THIS YEAR: In a word, meteoric. He finished third off of a six and half month layoff behind more heralded stablemate Anchor Down before his connections decided on the G1 Arkansas Derby over the G1 Blue Grass because he probably wouldn’t have made the field in what was an already overfilled Blue Grass. The result: a monstrous score in the crown jewel of the Oaklawn Park meeting.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher of course is famously battling his 1 for 36 mark in America’s greatest race while Bravo has had very little experience here. Throughout the year Pletcher will use Bravo as a second tier guy behind Velazquez and Castellano and to go out of town for stakes, hence Bravo riding Danza last out.
WORTH NOTING: Connections are trying to get actor/comedian Tony Danza to the Derby.
FAIR PRICE: A tricky question to answer since you just got Pletcher at $84!!! I can see him taking money simply because of that and the fact that he was running late in the game. You still need to get 20-1 on this colt.
HOPPERTUNITY
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)
RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace
AS A JUVENILE: He was unraced, which means he will be looking to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without running as a juvenile.
THIS YEAR: In a word, spotty. When he wins, he looks like a solid racehorse, like he did in his maiden tally and through the stretch of a roughly run Rebel which he gutted out. But when he doesn’t win, he looks ordinary at best, as evident by his fourth place finish in the Risen Star. Last out looked like a quintessential prep as I don’t believe he was persevered with whatsoever.
CONNECTIONS: Both know what it’s like to wear the roses and almost pulled it off as a team in 2012 with Bodemeister who finished a tough luck second. Baffert won this in ’97 with Silver Charm, ’98 with Real Quiet and ’02 with War Emblem while Smith shocked the world with 50-1 Giacomo in ’05. Together they win plenty of races out in California and across the country, most famously with Game On Dude.
WORTH NOTING: Perhaps trying to play catch-up for lack of a juvenile campaign, this will be Hoppertunity’s sixth start of the year and third trip out of California.
FAIR PRICE: If it wasn’t for the aforementioned “Curse of Apollo” I’m pretty sure he’d be your clear cut second choice. But with that looming over his head as well as a long sophomore campaign just to get into the Derby I’m thinking you need 8-1 on him.
INTENSE HOLIDAY
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 15)
RUNNING STYLE: Closes from the back of the pack
AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his maiden at second asking in his first start around two turns, Intense Holiday ran off the board in a series of stakes – G1 Champagne, G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen – while always putting in somewhat of a menacing run.
THIS YEAR: It looked like we were going to be seeing more of the 2013 version of this colt when he finished third, complete with a “sneaky good” move in the G2 Holy Bull. But that long stretch at the Fair Grounds brought the best out of him as he qualified for the Derby with an exciting rally from far back to win the G2 Risen Star in the last strides. He appeared tired when he hit the rail in mid-stretch last out in the G1 Louisiana Derby but still managed to hold the place.
CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most prolific trainer/jockey combo of the past 20 years, they’ve each won the roses but haven’t done it together. Pletcher won it in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez grabbed the money the following year with Animal Kingdom. Though Javier Castellano rides his share of the barn, Johnny V. is still one of the main guys in Pletcher’s barn.
WORTH NOTING: Owner Starlight Racing is enjoying this springtime as they not only have this guy in the Derby but their first “big horse,” Ashado, was just announced as an inductee into the National Museum and Hall of Fame this summer at Saratoga. Ashado was trained and ridden by Pletcher and Velazquez.
FAIR PRICE: I can’t put my finger on it but we really haven’t heard much buzz from the Fair Grounds Derby contingent this season. With that said, you’ll probably be able to get anywhere from 15-1 to 20-1 on him.
WILDCAT RED
TRAINER: Jose Garoffalo (Debut)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 1)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: He hit the wire first in all three of his starts but was disqualified from his third and final win of the year in a Florida bred stakes race for bearing out in the stretch.
THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. He lost the Gulfstream Park Derby by a head, galloped home clear in the G3 Hutcheson, won the G2 Fountain of Youth by a desperate head over rival General a Rod then just missed by a neck last out when his rider John Velazquez let the winner, Constitution, up the rail for the neck victory.
CONNECTIONS: Garoffalo is new to the big stage but has done a fine job in Florida while Saez winds up here after losing his Derby horse, Cairo Prince, to an ankle chip. The two did team up to win the Fountain of Youth.
WORTH NOTING: For a horse as consistent as he is, he’s four for seven in his career with three seconds, he’s had a tough time keeping a rider on his back. In fact, this will be the first time in five starts this year that he’ll be ridden by a jockey who’s already been aboard.
FAIR PRICE: I haven’t seen too many horses this year, or ever frankly, that love getting into a dogfight as much as this guy. And he gets into plenty of them. While that’s a great quality, especially in a race like this, you’re still going to need to command value on a horse like him. 18-1 is the least you can take.
RIDE ON CURLIN
TRAINER: Billy Gowan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 11)
RUNNING STYLE: Settles in mid-pack and makes one run.
AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his record in track record time second out at Ellis Park, it was strictly stakes competition in his final three starts of the year. A fourth place finish in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill was followed up by a fantastic effort in the G1 Champagne where he was third behind Havana and Honor Code and a third place finish in the Street Sense at Churchill.
THIS YEAR: In a word, frustrating. He started the year with an easy allowance score but then had a strange strip in the G3 Southwest when he was 8 wide, wasn’t ridden as aggressively as he should have been when third in a roughly run G2 Rebel then finally was able to work out a decent trip and make a solid run for the place money, and more importantly, place Derby points, last out in the G1 Arkansas Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Local boy Billy Gowan is looking to fulfill every Kentucky trainers’ lifelong dream in his debut and we all know about Borel’s exploits in the race, winning three of these in four years with Street Sense in ’07, Mine That Bird in ’09 and Super Saver in 2010.
WORTH NOTING: His owner, Dan Dougherty, is a Louisville native and local furniture store owner. A Louisville resident hasn’t won the Derby in over 100 years.
FAIR PRICE: The words “fair price” and “Calvin Borel” will never be compatible in a sentence regarding the Kentucky Derby ever again. Still, I think he’ll get lost in the shuffle enough where you’ll get the 20-1 you should get on him. He’d be 5-10 points higher with another jock.
Derby Contenders - Part II
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
WE MISS ARTIE
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 7)
RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: In five starts, he tried every surface with his best effort coming over the Keeneland Polytrack when he scored in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in a driving rainstorm. Second in his debut on dirt, he ended the year with an off the board finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also went one for two on the turf.
THIS YEAR: In a word, boggling, as in its boggling to think he is running in the Derby. He’s run three times: a bang up second in the Kitten’s Joy on the turf to start the year, an abysmal performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth on dirt and a last to first score in his latest, the G3 Spiral at Turfway over their synthetic surface. The dirt race is the lone blemish.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher has to hear about his record in here continuously for three months each time this year while Castellano, for all he’s accomplished, hasn’t really come close. Together they’re winning at OVER 35% this year alone.
WORTH NOTING: After his workout on the dirt at Churchill on Sunday, April 27. Pletcher said it was his worst dirt work ever and that he’d talk with the owner, Ken Ramsey, before going forward with running in the Derby. Ramsey later said the horse would run as long as there wasn’t anything physically wrong with him.
FAIR PRICE: He’s never missed being in the exacta on turf or synthetics, he’s 0 for 3 on the dirt. Combine that with events of this past weekend and you have to get at least 30-1 on him despite his high profile trainer/jockey combo.
CHITU
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: On December 7, Chitu broke his maiden at first asking over the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park by 1 ¼ lengths going 6 furlongs. Less than three week later, he came back to grind out an optional claimer/allowance contest by half a length going the same six furlongs.
THIS YEAR: In a word, under-raced. He raced fairly evenly despite making the lead briefly in the stretch when second in the G2 Robert Lewis then sat just off the early leader in the G3 Sunland Park Derby en route to a 2 ¼ length score over stablemate Midnight Hawk.
CONNECTIONS: Baffert has won three with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem in 1997, 1998 and 2002 respectively and though Garcia hasn’t had much Derby experience, he is one of Baffert’s go-to guys and they did team up to win, amongst other big races, the 2010 Preakness with Lookin at Lucky.
WORTH NOTING: Chitu lost a protective shoe he’s been wearing to battle a minor foot problem during his last work this past weekend at Churchill.
FAIR PRICE: Baffert is another “trigger” name for the bettors that only wager on big days so it’s almost always impossible to get the right price on his horses. He SHOULD be 25-1 but don’t expect it.
TAPITURE
TRAINER: Steve Asmussen (0 for 12)
JOCKEY: Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Stalks from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: It took him four tries to break his maiden but when he did he did it in fine fashion with a 4 ¼ length romp in the G2 KJC at Churchill. Earlier in the season he was third in the G3 Iroquois and hit th board in a pair of maiden special weight races.
THIS YEAR: In a word, underachieving. Sure, he started the season with a daylight score in the G3 Southwest, immediately stamping himself a major player in the division. But since, he got bullied around in the stretch of the G2 Rebel and barely raised his hooves in the G1 Arkansas Derby in one of the more mind-boggling performances of the prep season.
CONNECTIONS: Asmussen has been here before with some big chances, namely Curlin, but hasn’t been able to get the job done while Santana is new to this big scene. Throughout the year, the duo team up regularly and after a failed attempt when switching to Joel Rosario for his last start, Asmussen reached back out for Santana immediately.
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WORTH NOTING: His owner Winchell Thoroughbreds could be going for a rare Oaks/Derby sweep when he loads into the gate as they also own the filly Untapable who should be the overwhelming favorite in the Oaks on Friday.
FAIR PRICE: Three weeks ago, you’d have been happy as a clam to get 10-1 on him but with that black eye that is the Arkansas Derby on his resume now you have a better chance at seeing double that price.
GENERAL A ROD
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 4)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: A Polytrack win in a sprint at Keeneland in his debut followed up by a solid place finish to Conquest Titan going a mile at Churchill on conventional dirt.
THIS YEAR: In a word, reliable. Not only does he always show up, he’s responsible for one of the best rivalries, along with Wildcat Red, on the Derby Trail this season. A gutsy win by a head bob in the Gulfstream Park Derby is the highlight of his year thus far as he took a nasty beat in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was never more than a half-length away from Wildcat Red before failing to make up any ground late when finishing third in the G1 Florida Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Together, they set records in 2013 at Keeneland for wins in a meet and always seem to do damage when they team up. Maker hasn’t had any success here yet but Rosario of course piloted Orb to win the roses just last year.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll be staying with Maker but General a Rod was actually sold during Derby week, in part to the connections of Intense Holiday.
FAIR PRICE: Since Florida Derby winner Constitution and, to a lesser degree, Cairo Prince were declared from the Derby, you’ve hear ZERO about the rest of the Florida contingent. With that said, I’m sure you’ll be able to get 30-1 on him.
UNCLE SIGH
TRAINER: Gary Contessa (Debut)
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Missed by just a head in his debut after a bit of a flat-footed start in a sprint then romped by over 14 lengths less than three weeks later.
THIS YEAR: In a word, gritty. Lost a pair of toughies to fellow New York bred Samraat. First he was rundown in the final stages of the G3 Withers after setting the pace most of the way then was forced to do the dirty work when chasing between horses in the G3 Gotham. H broke a bit poorly in the G1 Wood Memorial last out, was taken completely out of his element and raced four wide throughout in what amounts to a toss out effort.
CONNECTIONS: Contessa has won over 2000 races and has been a New York regular for what seems like forever while Ortiz has quickly become one of the top guys on the NYRA circuit year-round.
WORTH NOTING: After tinkering with the idea for a while, Contessa is going to equip Uncle Sigh with blinkers for the Derby. And, yes, he’s named after the Duck Dynasty guy.
FAIR PRICE: When all is said and done, he’s won once in just five starts and is eligible for an entry level allowance contest. 30-1 is about right.
VINCEREMOS
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Rocco, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: In his lone two-year-old try, he finished second at Gulfstream in a sprint over a sloppy track.
THIS YEAR: In a word, questionable. His maiden race was far from flashy, he was probably second or third best when he held off Harpoon by a nose in the G3 Davis, he raced evenly in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby then was completely abysmal last out when trailing the G1 Blue Grass.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher reaches out to the under-the-radar Joe Rocco, Jr. who’ll be making his Derby debut.
WORTH NOTING: Wasn’t “officially” in the Derby until a satisfactory workout this past weekend.
FAIR PRICE: Surprisingly, there is a chance a Todd Pletcher entrant could be the longest shot on the board in the Derby and it’s this guy. 35-1 is the right price.
COMMANDING CURVE
TRAINER: Dallas Stewart (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Shaun Bridgmohan (0 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: Your prototypical one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: It took him four starts to do so but when he finally broke his maiden it was going tow turns at Churchill Downs.
THIS YEAR: In a word, unlucky. Got shuffled back terribly then was forced five deep in the G2 Risen Star then he get bothered at the break of the G2 Louisiana Derby before making up a ton of ground to get the show dough on a day where speed reigned supreme in route races.
CONNECTIONS: Stewart was running around last year telling people he hoped his charge Golden Soul would draw into the field. He did and finished a hard-charging second to Orb at a huge price. He’s doing the same thing with this guy. Bridgmohan broke this colts’ maiden.
WORTH NOTING: Owners West Point Thoroughbreds were forced to withdraw Ring Weekend on Sunday due to fever and infection. The beneficiary of the scratch: Commanding Curve.
FAIR PRICE: He’s the last one in right now but he figures to take some action based on the fact that he always seem to be closing ground at the end of his races. 25-1 is fair.
HARRY’S HOLIDAY
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.
AS A JUVENILE: Claimed from Steve Asmussen out of his debut win for $30K, he subsequently finished second and won against starter allowance competition.
THIS YEAR: In a word, sporadic. Off the board to start the year in the Pasco at Tampa, he’s made his last four starts with blinkers over synthetic surfaces with mixed results.He romped in a minor sprint stakes at Turfway, got real tired in the Battaglia when he faded to third then ran the race of his life when a gutsy second by a nose in the G3 Spiral You tell me what happened last out in the G1 Blue Grass and we’ll both know.
CONNECTIONS: Surprisingly, Lanerie, for all the winning he’s done in the Midwest, has never ridden in the Run for the Roses. Maker hasn’t really had much luck here.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll look to follow in the footsteps of former claimer Charismatic, who rose to Derby fame with an upset score in 1999.
FAIR PRICE: Arguably the slowest horse in the race, you need to get at least 40-1.
CANDY BOY
TRAINER: John Sadler (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 19)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.
AS A JUVENILE: Just one for five last year, he kept some interesting company in the form of G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day, the precocious Tap It Rich and finished second to end the year after breaking his maiden against the undefeated Eclipse champ Shared Belief in the G1 CashCall Futurity.
THIS YEAR: In a word, enigmatic, as he’s run just twice after an extensive two-year-old season. Impressed many with his late rally to win the G2 Robert Lewis over eventual G3 Sunland Derby winner Chitu and the multiple graded stakes placed Midnight Hawk, didn’t run by design for two months and didn’t really lift a hoof when third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Sadler is still looking for his first Derby while Stevens is searching for number four and first since his return from a seven year hiatus. He won the 1988 Derby with Winning Colors, with Thunder Gulch in 1995 and with Silver Charm in 1997.
WORTH NOTING: Stevens declared him his “number one draft pick” after the Lewis victory with some 83 days left until the Derby at the time.
FAIR PRICE: He’s another I’m not sure about how the public is going to react to. He had a tremendous amount of buzz for a while but California Chrome has garnered all the attention out west and he really didn’t inspire many with that effort last out. I don’t think you’ll get it but he should be 25-1
MEDAL COUNT
TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 4)
JOCKEY: Robby Albarado (0 for 13)
RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden around two turns at Ellis Park in an off the turf race, was a troubled trip fifth in the G3 Bourbon over the Polytrack at Keeneland then didn’t run a step in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.
THIS YEAR: In a word, resilient. He closed into dawdling fractions to dead heat for the win in a turf allowance race to start the year at Gulfstream then had trouble making up ground on a speed biased course in the G2 Fountain of Youth. In his last two, he won the off the turf Transylvania from the rail then flew home to be second in the G1 Blue Grass from post 13, both at Keeneland.
CONNECTIONS: Both make their home on the Midwest circuit and win their fair share of races, exclusively and together. They just can’t seem to win the REALLY big ones.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll be making his third start in 30 days in the Derby and his last two races were just eight days apart.
FAIR PRICE: His synthetic and turf form is good while his conventional dirt form can appears to be a bit puzzling. Not sure how the public is going to react to all of this racing in such a short period of time. 20-1 is the least you could ask for on him.
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
WE MISS ARTIE
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 7)
RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: In five starts, he tried every surface with his best effort coming over the Keeneland Polytrack when he scored in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in a driving rainstorm. Second in his debut on dirt, he ended the year with an off the board finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also went one for two on the turf.
THIS YEAR: In a word, boggling, as in its boggling to think he is running in the Derby. He’s run three times: a bang up second in the Kitten’s Joy on the turf to start the year, an abysmal performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth on dirt and a last to first score in his latest, the G3 Spiral at Turfway over their synthetic surface. The dirt race is the lone blemish.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher has to hear about his record in here continuously for three months each time this year while Castellano, for all he’s accomplished, hasn’t really come close. Together they’re winning at OVER 35% this year alone.
WORTH NOTING: After his workout on the dirt at Churchill on Sunday, April 27. Pletcher said it was his worst dirt work ever and that he’d talk with the owner, Ken Ramsey, before going forward with running in the Derby. Ramsey later said the horse would run as long as there wasn’t anything physically wrong with him.
FAIR PRICE: He’s never missed being in the exacta on turf or synthetics, he’s 0 for 3 on the dirt. Combine that with events of this past weekend and you have to get at least 30-1 on him despite his high profile trainer/jockey combo.
CHITU
TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 2)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: On December 7, Chitu broke his maiden at first asking over the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park by 1 ¼ lengths going 6 furlongs. Less than three week later, he came back to grind out an optional claimer/allowance contest by half a length going the same six furlongs.
THIS YEAR: In a word, under-raced. He raced fairly evenly despite making the lead briefly in the stretch when second in the G2 Robert Lewis then sat just off the early leader in the G3 Sunland Park Derby en route to a 2 ¼ length score over stablemate Midnight Hawk.
CONNECTIONS: Baffert has won three with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem in 1997, 1998 and 2002 respectively and though Garcia hasn’t had much Derby experience, he is one of Baffert’s go-to guys and they did team up to win, amongst other big races, the 2010 Preakness with Lookin at Lucky.
WORTH NOTING: Chitu lost a protective shoe he’s been wearing to battle a minor foot problem during his last work this past weekend at Churchill.
FAIR PRICE: Baffert is another “trigger” name for the bettors that only wager on big days so it’s almost always impossible to get the right price on his horses. He SHOULD be 25-1 but don’t expect it.
TAPITURE
TRAINER: Steve Asmussen (0 for 12)
JOCKEY: Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: Stalks from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: It took him four tries to break his maiden but when he did he did it in fine fashion with a 4 ¼ length romp in the G2 KJC at Churchill. Earlier in the season he was third in the G3 Iroquois and hit th board in a pair of maiden special weight races.
THIS YEAR: In a word, underachieving. Sure, he started the season with a daylight score in the G3 Southwest, immediately stamping himself a major player in the division. But since, he got bullied around in the stretch of the G2 Rebel and barely raised his hooves in the G1 Arkansas Derby in one of the more mind-boggling performances of the prep season.
CONNECTIONS: Asmussen has been here before with some big chances, namely Curlin, but hasn’t been able to get the job done while Santana is new to this big scene. Throughout the year, the duo team up regularly and after a failed attempt when switching to Joel Rosario for his last start, Asmussen reached back out for Santana immediately.
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WORTH NOTING: His owner Winchell Thoroughbreds could be going for a rare Oaks/Derby sweep when he loads into the gate as they also own the filly Untapable who should be the overwhelming favorite in the Oaks on Friday.
FAIR PRICE: Three weeks ago, you’d have been happy as a clam to get 10-1 on him but with that black eye that is the Arkansas Derby on his resume now you have a better chance at seeing double that price.
GENERAL A ROD
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 4)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: A Polytrack win in a sprint at Keeneland in his debut followed up by a solid place finish to Conquest Titan going a mile at Churchill on conventional dirt.
THIS YEAR: In a word, reliable. Not only does he always show up, he’s responsible for one of the best rivalries, along with Wildcat Red, on the Derby Trail this season. A gutsy win by a head bob in the Gulfstream Park Derby is the highlight of his year thus far as he took a nasty beat in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was never more than a half-length away from Wildcat Red before failing to make up any ground late when finishing third in the G1 Florida Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Together, they set records in 2013 at Keeneland for wins in a meet and always seem to do damage when they team up. Maker hasn’t had any success here yet but Rosario of course piloted Orb to win the roses just last year.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll be staying with Maker but General a Rod was actually sold during Derby week, in part to the connections of Intense Holiday.
FAIR PRICE: Since Florida Derby winner Constitution and, to a lesser degree, Cairo Prince were declared from the Derby, you’ve hear ZERO about the rest of the Florida contingent. With that said, I’m sure you’ll be able to get 30-1 on him.
UNCLE SIGH
TRAINER: Gary Contessa (Debut)
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.
AS A JUVENILE: Missed by just a head in his debut after a bit of a flat-footed start in a sprint then romped by over 14 lengths less than three weeks later.
THIS YEAR: In a word, gritty. Lost a pair of toughies to fellow New York bred Samraat. First he was rundown in the final stages of the G3 Withers after setting the pace most of the way then was forced to do the dirty work when chasing between horses in the G3 Gotham. H broke a bit poorly in the G1 Wood Memorial last out, was taken completely out of his element and raced four wide throughout in what amounts to a toss out effort.
CONNECTIONS: Contessa has won over 2000 races and has been a New York regular for what seems like forever while Ortiz has quickly become one of the top guys on the NYRA circuit year-round.
WORTH NOTING: After tinkering with the idea for a while, Contessa is going to equip Uncle Sigh with blinkers for the Derby. And, yes, he’s named after the Duck Dynasty guy.
FAIR PRICE: When all is said and done, he’s won once in just five starts and is eligible for an entry level allowance contest. 30-1 is about right.
VINCEREMOS
TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Rocco, Jr. (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from just off the pace.
AS A JUVENILE: In his lone two-year-old try, he finished second at Gulfstream in a sprint over a sloppy track.
THIS YEAR: In a word, questionable. His maiden race was far from flashy, he was probably second or third best when he held off Harpoon by a nose in the G3 Davis, he raced evenly in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby then was completely abysmal last out when trailing the G1 Blue Grass.
CONNECTIONS: Pletcher reaches out to the under-the-radar Joe Rocco, Jr. who’ll be making his Derby debut.
WORTH NOTING: Wasn’t “officially” in the Derby until a satisfactory workout this past weekend.
FAIR PRICE: Surprisingly, there is a chance a Todd Pletcher entrant could be the longest shot on the board in the Derby and it’s this guy. 35-1 is the right price.
COMMANDING CURVE
TRAINER: Dallas Stewart (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Shaun Bridgmohan (0 for 5)
RUNNING STYLE: Your prototypical one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: It took him four starts to do so but when he finally broke his maiden it was going tow turns at Churchill Downs.
THIS YEAR: In a word, unlucky. Got shuffled back terribly then was forced five deep in the G2 Risen Star then he get bothered at the break of the G2 Louisiana Derby before making up a ton of ground to get the show dough on a day where speed reigned supreme in route races.
CONNECTIONS: Stewart was running around last year telling people he hoped his charge Golden Soul would draw into the field. He did and finished a hard-charging second to Orb at a huge price. He’s doing the same thing with this guy. Bridgmohan broke this colts’ maiden.
WORTH NOTING: Owners West Point Thoroughbreds were forced to withdraw Ring Weekend on Sunday due to fever and infection. The beneficiary of the scratch: Commanding Curve.
FAIR PRICE: He’s the last one in right now but he figures to take some action based on the fact that he always seem to be closing ground at the end of his races. 25-1 is fair.
HARRY’S HOLIDAY
TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie (Debut)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.
AS A JUVENILE: Claimed from Steve Asmussen out of his debut win for $30K, he subsequently finished second and won against starter allowance competition.
THIS YEAR: In a word, sporadic. Off the board to start the year in the Pasco at Tampa, he’s made his last four starts with blinkers over synthetic surfaces with mixed results.He romped in a minor sprint stakes at Turfway, got real tired in the Battaglia when he faded to third then ran the race of his life when a gutsy second by a nose in the G3 Spiral You tell me what happened last out in the G1 Blue Grass and we’ll both know.
CONNECTIONS: Surprisingly, Lanerie, for all the winning he’s done in the Midwest, has never ridden in the Run for the Roses. Maker hasn’t really had much luck here.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll look to follow in the footsteps of former claimer Charismatic, who rose to Derby fame with an upset score in 1999.
FAIR PRICE: Arguably the slowest horse in the race, you need to get at least 40-1.
CANDY BOY
TRAINER: John Sadler (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 19)
RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.
AS A JUVENILE: Just one for five last year, he kept some interesting company in the form of G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day, the precocious Tap It Rich and finished second to end the year after breaking his maiden against the undefeated Eclipse champ Shared Belief in the G1 CashCall Futurity.
THIS YEAR: In a word, enigmatic, as he’s run just twice after an extensive two-year-old season. Impressed many with his late rally to win the G2 Robert Lewis over eventual G3 Sunland Derby winner Chitu and the multiple graded stakes placed Midnight Hawk, didn’t run by design for two months and didn’t really lift a hoof when third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
CONNECTIONS: Sadler is still looking for his first Derby while Stevens is searching for number four and first since his return from a seven year hiatus. He won the 1988 Derby with Winning Colors, with Thunder Gulch in 1995 and with Silver Charm in 1997.
WORTH NOTING: Stevens declared him his “number one draft pick” after the Lewis victory with some 83 days left until the Derby at the time.
FAIR PRICE: He’s another I’m not sure about how the public is going to react to. He had a tremendous amount of buzz for a while but California Chrome has garnered all the attention out west and he really didn’t inspire many with that effort last out. I don’t think you’ll get it but he should be 25-1
MEDAL COUNT
TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 4)
JOCKEY: Robby Albarado (0 for 13)
RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.
AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden around two turns at Ellis Park in an off the turf race, was a troubled trip fifth in the G3 Bourbon over the Polytrack at Keeneland then didn’t run a step in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.
THIS YEAR: In a word, resilient. He closed into dawdling fractions to dead heat for the win in a turf allowance race to start the year at Gulfstream then had trouble making up ground on a speed biased course in the G2 Fountain of Youth. In his last two, he won the off the turf Transylvania from the rail then flew home to be second in the G1 Blue Grass from post 13, both at Keeneland.
CONNECTIONS: Both make their home on the Midwest circuit and win their fair share of races, exclusively and together. They just can’t seem to win the REALLY big ones.
WORTH NOTING: He’ll be making his third start in 30 days in the Derby and his last two races were just eight days apart.
FAIR PRICE: His synthetic and turf form is good while his conventional dirt form can appears to be a bit puzzling. Not sure how the public is going to react to all of this racing in such a short period of time. 20-1 is the least you could ask for on him.
Woodbine Harness: Saturday 5/3 Analysis
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: NATIONAL DEBT (2nd)
Spot Play: GOTTA SECRET ( 7th)
Race 1
(5) WAASMULA has been racing at her best in recent starts, stays at the same class and will offer a low price. (7) D GS PESQUERO has finished second in each of her last two starts in this class and comes out of Moreau's barn. (4) ITS NO SECRET draws inside, is versatile and should offer a fair price in this high level.
Race 2
(2) NATIONAL DEBT is undefeated in his career and was a shut-down winner last week. (6) SILVERHILL SHADOW posted a convincing qualifier in Florida and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt based on that charted line. (4) ROGER MACH EM has been racing at this best and finished a game second last week.
Race 3
(3) ROSE RUN ORIANA drops in class and just got picked off last week at the wire. She's a class mare and gets post relief. (2) KEYSTONE ORION raced terrific last week for Montini. He draws inside, has gate-speed and can improve off that effort. (1) MOTOWN MUSCLE gets the rail, closed well last week in her seasonal debut and can only improve on last week's effort.
Race 4
(1) FOUR STARZ HOLD EM was a game second last week and lacked racing room in deep stretch. He moves up in class, but is a prime contender. (6) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR has hit the board in each of his last two starts and has excellent gate-speed. (10) KEEPING OPTOMISTIC comes out of the Johnson barn, has excellent gate-speed and has proven to be competitive at this level.
Race 5
(3) NOBLE FLIGHT has won two straight, including a comfortable victory last week at this class. (10) TURBO DONATO is versatile, has the speed and comes out of the Baillargeon barn. (1) SIXTH MAN gets the rail and finished a strong second in this class last week. He has the speed, but appears to need a trip.
Race 6
(2) HES A SENSATION drops in class after finishing second, by a head, at a higher level last start. (7) SUNNY BEACH DAY went a tremendous mile two starts ago and will look to regain form at a level he's competitive at. (9) CARSONS CAMALOT faces tougher competition, but has been racing at his best in his last two and possesses terrific gate-speed to overcome the outside.
Race 7
(2) GOTTA SECRET draws inside, comes out of Moreau's barn and posted a strong win two back. He faces an easier bunch in here than last week and should be better placed. (1) MEADOWVIEW ARTY gets the rail and finished a strong second last week for first time starter Auciello. He moves up in class, but gets a better post. (8) MIDFIELD MAGIC posted a gate-to-wire score in his latest and is capable of the class jump for Mayotte.
Race 8
(7) STATE TREASURER posted two convincing qualifiers and looks like he's ready for his 2014 debut for trainer Moore. (5) THINKING OUT LOUD got the job done in this class last start and makes just his third start of the season. (4) IN COMMANDO hasn't missed the board in each of his last four starts. He's a logical option for the triactor.
Race 9
(5) WHEELING N DEALIN was a comfortable winner last start and although he moves up in class, he is a top threat in here. (8) THANKYOUKESSEL has been knocking on the door in his past two starts and continues to improve this season. He has gate-speed and a good option for the exactor. (6) BAX OF LIFE drops out of the Preferred and into this level. She has back class and displayed the speed required in her last two.
Race 10
(4) DRAIN DADDY has been knocking on the door in his last two. He moves into the Gallucci barn, which is a plus and he is due for his first win of the season. (2) EVENIN OF PLEASURE draws inside, comes out of Moreau's barn and has hit the board in three of his last four. (6) DONAU gets Jamieson in the bike, which is a plus. He has the speed and is versatile.
Race 11
(10) MANCHESTER scored an impressive win last start in a new lifetime best. Even with a post 10 start and jump in class, he's a top contender. (8) THEPANINSULAHOTEL drops in class, enjoys racing off a helmet and has all kinds off back class in his favour. (7) COOL ROCK got rough gaited in deep stretch last week, which cost him the win. He has a patented late kick and quick fractions only help his chances.
By Greg Gangle
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: NATIONAL DEBT (2nd)
Spot Play: GOTTA SECRET ( 7th)
Race 1
(5) WAASMULA has been racing at her best in recent starts, stays at the same class and will offer a low price. (7) D GS PESQUERO has finished second in each of her last two starts in this class and comes out of Moreau's barn. (4) ITS NO SECRET draws inside, is versatile and should offer a fair price in this high level.
Race 2
(2) NATIONAL DEBT is undefeated in his career and was a shut-down winner last week. (6) SILVERHILL SHADOW posted a convincing qualifier in Florida and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt based on that charted line. (4) ROGER MACH EM has been racing at this best and finished a game second last week.
Race 3
(3) ROSE RUN ORIANA drops in class and just got picked off last week at the wire. She's a class mare and gets post relief. (2) KEYSTONE ORION raced terrific last week for Montini. He draws inside, has gate-speed and can improve off that effort. (1) MOTOWN MUSCLE gets the rail, closed well last week in her seasonal debut and can only improve on last week's effort.
Race 4
(1) FOUR STARZ HOLD EM was a game second last week and lacked racing room in deep stretch. He moves up in class, but is a prime contender. (6) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR has hit the board in each of his last two starts and has excellent gate-speed. (10) KEEPING OPTOMISTIC comes out of the Johnson barn, has excellent gate-speed and has proven to be competitive at this level.
Race 5
(3) NOBLE FLIGHT has won two straight, including a comfortable victory last week at this class. (10) TURBO DONATO is versatile, has the speed and comes out of the Baillargeon barn. (1) SIXTH MAN gets the rail and finished a strong second in this class last week. He has the speed, but appears to need a trip.
Race 6
(2) HES A SENSATION drops in class after finishing second, by a head, at a higher level last start. (7) SUNNY BEACH DAY went a tremendous mile two starts ago and will look to regain form at a level he's competitive at. (9) CARSONS CAMALOT faces tougher competition, but has been racing at his best in his last two and possesses terrific gate-speed to overcome the outside.
Race 7
(2) GOTTA SECRET draws inside, comes out of Moreau's barn and posted a strong win two back. He faces an easier bunch in here than last week and should be better placed. (1) MEADOWVIEW ARTY gets the rail and finished a strong second last week for first time starter Auciello. He moves up in class, but gets a better post. (8) MIDFIELD MAGIC posted a gate-to-wire score in his latest and is capable of the class jump for Mayotte.
Race 8
(7) STATE TREASURER posted two convincing qualifiers and looks like he's ready for his 2014 debut for trainer Moore. (5) THINKING OUT LOUD got the job done in this class last start and makes just his third start of the season. (4) IN COMMANDO hasn't missed the board in each of his last four starts. He's a logical option for the triactor.
Race 9
(5) WHEELING N DEALIN was a comfortable winner last start and although he moves up in class, he is a top threat in here. (8) THANKYOUKESSEL has been knocking on the door in his past two starts and continues to improve this season. He has gate-speed and a good option for the exactor. (6) BAX OF LIFE drops out of the Preferred and into this level. She has back class and displayed the speed required in her last two.
Race 10
(4) DRAIN DADDY has been knocking on the door in his last two. He moves into the Gallucci barn, which is a plus and he is due for his first win of the season. (2) EVENIN OF PLEASURE draws inside, comes out of Moreau's barn and has hit the board in three of his last four. (6) DONAU gets Jamieson in the bike, which is a plus. He has the speed and is versatile.
Race 11
(10) MANCHESTER scored an impressive win last start in a new lifetime best. Even with a post 10 start and jump in class, he's a top contender. (8) THEPANINSULAHOTEL drops in class, enjoys racing off a helmet and has all kinds off back class in his favour. (7) COOL ROCK got rough gaited in deep stretch last week, which cost him the win. He has a patented late kick and quick fractions only help his chances.
Yonkers: Saturday 5/3 Analysis
By Matt Rose
DRF HARNESS
MEET STATS: 135 - 396 / $746.00 BEST BETS: 22 - 32 / $75.00
Best Bet: STATESMAN N (11th)
Spot Play: TAKE IT BACK TERRY (6th)
Race 1
(2) NORTHERN BREAKOUT slipped off the rail late in the mile and finished with plenty last out; it seems like this veteran is ready to score. (5) REPORT FOR DUTY N should be able to return to his front-running style tonight after a no-chance trip. (4) FAMEOUS WESTERN is currently in raging form and I couldn't fault anyone for backing him.
Race 2
(3) MONTREAL PHIL gets needed post relief and note that the Lachance barn has been heating up. (2) CODE WORD is back up in class off a dominating score; veteran has beaten much better than these in the past. (7) GREAT VINTAGE returns locally and he had a nice run here last year.
Race 3
(4) YO CHEYENNE ROCKY has flashed solid speed in his last two since Brennan took over the driving duties; Trainer Siegelman has had some live ones race here recently. (2) ON THE BRINK gets some class and post relief; gelding could be a factor here. (3) MACHAPELO closed well last out after saving ground.
Race 4
(6) VERDAD toured the track with little chance in his local return; this looks like a spot were Brennan can get aggressive early. (1) SIR ZIGGY'S Z TAM moves all the way inside and he can be close enough to strike. (5) BAKIN ON THE BEACH was Sears' choice of four in here but he's certainly underwhelmed of late.
Race 5
(4) BULLET BOB has plenty of early speed but needs more late stamina; he's worth a try anyway from this spot. (3) K SLATER drops in class and draws better; obvious threat. (2) LISTOWEL also lands inside and he's proven to be competitive with these.
Race 6
(2) TAKE IT BACK TERRY is back up in class off a very easy score and he finds a soft field of winners-over types; repeats. (4) VERSADO picks up Sears and should be forwardly placed. (5) FOUR STARZ TRACE has been a decent money-earner and he could rally for a share.
Race 7
(4) THIRTY TWO RED was absolutely super in victory just five days ago and he could be a price here on the hike in class. (2) DREAM OUT LOUD N finally moves inside and he will be a powerful presence from this spot. (5) GIDDY UP VICTORY was also a game winner versus lesser.
Race 8
(1) VALENTINO has plenty of back class and he meets a field with no standouts; maybe. (3) EIGHTEEN returns into a good spot and he will be close to the action. (2) ETHAN HANOVER has been sharp in all recent and he lands inside again.
Race 9
(5) THE LADIES MAN shipped in, joined the Burke barn and was absolutely sparkling in victory; hike in class should not be a problem. (1) ROCK TO GLORY returns in a good spot and he's a proven commodity at this level. (7) MACHS BEACH BOY is another Lachance trainee that showed improvement in his prior start.
Race 10
(5) CONNERY BLUE CHIP was pretty game in defeat last week versus similar; Garcia-Herrera student can take this with any sort of favorable trip. (7) PANONGAHELA was a solid closing second to a runaway winner last out. (3) SAFE HARBOR has had his moments over this track in the past.
Race 11
(1) STATESMAN N has been rock solid in his last three and he will easily control the action from this spot. (3) ESPEN DE VIE was boxed and didn't threaten last week; tonight he may be leaving to secure a trip behind the top choice. (2) BJ'S GUY seems to alternate between good and bad efforts which would mean he's due for a good one tonight.
By Matt Rose
DRF HARNESS
MEET STATS: 135 - 396 / $746.00 BEST BETS: 22 - 32 / $75.00
Best Bet: STATESMAN N (11th)
Spot Play: TAKE IT BACK TERRY (6th)
Race 1
(2) NORTHERN BREAKOUT slipped off the rail late in the mile and finished with plenty last out; it seems like this veteran is ready to score. (5) REPORT FOR DUTY N should be able to return to his front-running style tonight after a no-chance trip. (4) FAMEOUS WESTERN is currently in raging form and I couldn't fault anyone for backing him.
Race 2
(3) MONTREAL PHIL gets needed post relief and note that the Lachance barn has been heating up. (2) CODE WORD is back up in class off a dominating score; veteran has beaten much better than these in the past. (7) GREAT VINTAGE returns locally and he had a nice run here last year.
Race 3
(4) YO CHEYENNE ROCKY has flashed solid speed in his last two since Brennan took over the driving duties; Trainer Siegelman has had some live ones race here recently. (2) ON THE BRINK gets some class and post relief; gelding could be a factor here. (3) MACHAPELO closed well last out after saving ground.
Race 4
(6) VERDAD toured the track with little chance in his local return; this looks like a spot were Brennan can get aggressive early. (1) SIR ZIGGY'S Z TAM moves all the way inside and he can be close enough to strike. (5) BAKIN ON THE BEACH was Sears' choice of four in here but he's certainly underwhelmed of late.
Race 5
(4) BULLET BOB has plenty of early speed but needs more late stamina; he's worth a try anyway from this spot. (3) K SLATER drops in class and draws better; obvious threat. (2) LISTOWEL also lands inside and he's proven to be competitive with these.
Race 6
(2) TAKE IT BACK TERRY is back up in class off a very easy score and he finds a soft field of winners-over types; repeats. (4) VERSADO picks up Sears and should be forwardly placed. (5) FOUR STARZ TRACE has been a decent money-earner and he could rally for a share.
Race 7
(4) THIRTY TWO RED was absolutely super in victory just five days ago and he could be a price here on the hike in class. (2) DREAM OUT LOUD N finally moves inside and he will be a powerful presence from this spot. (5) GIDDY UP VICTORY was also a game winner versus lesser.
Race 8
(1) VALENTINO has plenty of back class and he meets a field with no standouts; maybe. (3) EIGHTEEN returns into a good spot and he will be close to the action. (2) ETHAN HANOVER has been sharp in all recent and he lands inside again.
Race 9
(5) THE LADIES MAN shipped in, joined the Burke barn and was absolutely sparkling in victory; hike in class should not be a problem. (1) ROCK TO GLORY returns in a good spot and he's a proven commodity at this level. (7) MACHS BEACH BOY is another Lachance trainee that showed improvement in his prior start.
Race 10
(5) CONNERY BLUE CHIP was pretty game in defeat last week versus similar; Garcia-Herrera student can take this with any sort of favorable trip. (7) PANONGAHELA was a solid closing second to a runaway winner last out. (3) SAFE HARBOR has had his moments over this track in the past.
Race 11
(1) STATESMAN N has been rock solid in his last three and he will easily control the action from this spot. (3) ESPEN DE VIE was boxed and didn't threaten last week; tonight he may be leaving to secure a trip behind the top choice. (2) BJ'S GUY seems to alternate between good and bad efforts which would mean he's due for a good one tonight.
Meadowlands: Saturday 5/3 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF HARNESS
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 122 - 461 / $728.20 BEST BETS: 18 - 37 / $67.20
Best Bet: THAT’S MY OPINION (5th)
Spot Play: OLDE TIME HOCKEY (11th)
Race 1
(7) CARD SHOCK faces the easiest group he has seen this year and should have an opportunity to pick up his first career win. (5) THEREISAPACEFORUS saw some stakes action as a 2-year-old and lured Gingras off a Ron Burke-trained horse. (1) SIR SAM’S Z TAM was keeping good company as a rookie. His qualifiers weren’t awful and he faced some top competition; maybe.
Race 2
(5) ROCKIN AMADEUS doesn’t exactly glide around the track with a flawless motion, but has come back to the races strong and merits the repeat call. (7) WAKE UP PETER was spectacular in defeat when last seen on April 19. He won’t go down without a fight. (2) CADILLAC PHIL has looked good in Pennsylvania; exotics player.
Race 3
(4) THEINDECENTLAWYER hails from a barn that sent top colt Allstar Partner out to a solid effort off the bench. With no killers signed on to this race, I’ll give this guy the narrow edge. (2) BET THE TRUTH raced well in his Meadowlands debut. (3) SIR JAKE’S Z TAM closed well in his first race of 2014 and now adds Gingras; overbet?
Race 4
(4) JINS DRAGON made a nice move last time only to give way after the tough fractions. It does seem as though this gelding is trending in the right direction. (1) PRIBCE SHARKA finds a field without much early speed. This is a good spot for him. (5) SCALPED tired late after getting used in the opening quarter. This is only his third start since October and he could show more.
Race 5
(1) THAT’S MY OPINION put up a fast qualifying time on a track that wasn’t exactly lightning fast. Promising Somebeachsomewhere-sired colt appears ready to roll. (3) LET’S FOAL AROUND raced well on the engine last time and seems to be showing continued improvement. (5) THETRUTHABOUTDAVID comes in with form; maybe.
Race 6
(8) ALLSTAR PARTNER put in a solid effort off the bench against another top colt in Always B Miki. Four Starzzz Shark-sired gelding figures to be firing out and looks to have the edge. (5) JK ENDOFANERA won the Governor’s Cup last year and has qualified well; big chance. (7) JET AIRWAY seems to have some ability; upset potential. (1) IDEAL COWBOY returned to the races with a big mile at Pocono.
Race 7
(3) URGENT ACTION finished up with good pace in his first start since November. This guy made over $121k last year and is more than capable of winning tonight. (1) ODDS ON EQUULEUS has put together two good qualifiers in preparation for his 4-year-old debut. That said, it is hard to take a short price on a horse that never won as a 3-year-old. (6) QUIK MAGIC & (5) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH are too sharp horses that figure to get a big piece.
Race 8
(5) SOMEPLACE SPECIAL made a bold move and came up just short in last week’s elimination race. Mark Silva trainee has more talent than we have seen and he might be peaking at the right time. (9) YOU BET YOUR GLASS keeps getting better each week; the one to beat. (10) PEMBROKE DEWEY couldn’t be much sharp, but Campbell will have his hands full from post 10.
Race 9
(3) ROAR put in a nice steady mile from off the pace after a four month break in action. Notice that 1:49 4/5 mile last year at Mohawk and you realize that there is talent here. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE drops down but doesn’t have much early speed; mixed feelings. (10) FRIDAY AT FIVE has form but a bad post. (9) SKY MCFLY would be no surprise.
Race 10
(6) STALLONE BLUE CHIP has been stuck in races that are going a bit too fast for him. He drops in class on Saturday and figures to perk back up. (2) SIR MELO’S Z TAM raced very well when last seen at this level. (5) BOLERO ANDREW is another getting class relief; dangerous.
Race 11
(6) OLDE TIME HOCKEY arrives back at the Meadowlands at a reduced level and I’m expecting Callahan to be leaving fast off the gate. (4) MIGHTY YOUNG JOE finished fast from far back last time and might change tactics with the better post. (5) SEE AND SKI comes off a good effort but is too unreliable at what figures to be a shorter price. (9) DREAMLANDS ART gets Yannick back in the bike.
Race 12
(7) DULL ROAR was done in by the tough post last week in just his second start of the year. Dave Miller jumps in the bike this week. (3) INSTANT REFUND put in his best recent effort when Yannick was at the controls. (2) EIGHT TEN EOM makes his second start off the bench and draws better.
Race 13
(3) EXPLODENT chased along decently against much better after missing two months of action. This is an awful group and I expect this guy to take charge. (5) THE PRICE YOU PAY had a tough trip last time. (10) JETTY comes off a good effort and might actually end up the favorite despite the outside post.
By Derick Giwner
DRF HARNESS
Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 122 - 461 / $728.20 BEST BETS: 18 - 37 / $67.20
Best Bet: THAT’S MY OPINION (5th)
Spot Play: OLDE TIME HOCKEY (11th)
Race 1
(7) CARD SHOCK faces the easiest group he has seen this year and should have an opportunity to pick up his first career win. (5) THEREISAPACEFORUS saw some stakes action as a 2-year-old and lured Gingras off a Ron Burke-trained horse. (1) SIR SAM’S Z TAM was keeping good company as a rookie. His qualifiers weren’t awful and he faced some top competition; maybe.
Race 2
(5) ROCKIN AMADEUS doesn’t exactly glide around the track with a flawless motion, but has come back to the races strong and merits the repeat call. (7) WAKE UP PETER was spectacular in defeat when last seen on April 19. He won’t go down without a fight. (2) CADILLAC PHIL has looked good in Pennsylvania; exotics player.
Race 3
(4) THEINDECENTLAWYER hails from a barn that sent top colt Allstar Partner out to a solid effort off the bench. With no killers signed on to this race, I’ll give this guy the narrow edge. (2) BET THE TRUTH raced well in his Meadowlands debut. (3) SIR JAKE’S Z TAM closed well in his first race of 2014 and now adds Gingras; overbet?
Race 4
(4) JINS DRAGON made a nice move last time only to give way after the tough fractions. It does seem as though this gelding is trending in the right direction. (1) PRIBCE SHARKA finds a field without much early speed. This is a good spot for him. (5) SCALPED tired late after getting used in the opening quarter. This is only his third start since October and he could show more.
Race 5
(1) THAT’S MY OPINION put up a fast qualifying time on a track that wasn’t exactly lightning fast. Promising Somebeachsomewhere-sired colt appears ready to roll. (3) LET’S FOAL AROUND raced well on the engine last time and seems to be showing continued improvement. (5) THETRUTHABOUTDAVID comes in with form; maybe.
Race 6
(8) ALLSTAR PARTNER put in a solid effort off the bench against another top colt in Always B Miki. Four Starzzz Shark-sired gelding figures to be firing out and looks to have the edge. (5) JK ENDOFANERA won the Governor’s Cup last year and has qualified well; big chance. (7) JET AIRWAY seems to have some ability; upset potential. (1) IDEAL COWBOY returned to the races with a big mile at Pocono.
Race 7
(3) URGENT ACTION finished up with good pace in his first start since November. This guy made over $121k last year and is more than capable of winning tonight. (1) ODDS ON EQUULEUS has put together two good qualifiers in preparation for his 4-year-old debut. That said, it is hard to take a short price on a horse that never won as a 3-year-old. (6) QUIK MAGIC & (5) MOONLITEONTHEBEACH are too sharp horses that figure to get a big piece.
Race 8
(5) SOMEPLACE SPECIAL made a bold move and came up just short in last week’s elimination race. Mark Silva trainee has more talent than we have seen and he might be peaking at the right time. (9) YOU BET YOUR GLASS keeps getting better each week; the one to beat. (10) PEMBROKE DEWEY couldn’t be much sharp, but Campbell will have his hands full from post 10.
Race 9
(3) ROAR put in a nice steady mile from off the pace after a four month break in action. Notice that 1:49 4/5 mile last year at Mohawk and you realize that there is talent here. (8) TWINCREEKS JESSE drops down but doesn’t have much early speed; mixed feelings. (10) FRIDAY AT FIVE has form but a bad post. (9) SKY MCFLY would be no surprise.
Race 10
(6) STALLONE BLUE CHIP has been stuck in races that are going a bit too fast for him. He drops in class on Saturday and figures to perk back up. (2) SIR MELO’S Z TAM raced very well when last seen at this level. (5) BOLERO ANDREW is another getting class relief; dangerous.
Race 11
(6) OLDE TIME HOCKEY arrives back at the Meadowlands at a reduced level and I’m expecting Callahan to be leaving fast off the gate. (4) MIGHTY YOUNG JOE finished fast from far back last time and might change tactics with the better post. (5) SEE AND SKI comes off a good effort but is too unreliable at what figures to be a shorter price. (9) DREAMLANDS ART gets Yannick back in the bike.
Race 12
(7) DULL ROAR was done in by the tough post last week in just his second start of the year. Dave Miller jumps in the bike this week. (3) INSTANT REFUND put in his best recent effort when Yannick was at the controls. (2) EIGHT TEN EOM makes his second start off the bench and draws better.
Race 13
(3) EXPLODENT chased along decently against much better after missing two months of action. This is an awful group and I expect this guy to take charge. (5) THE PRICE YOU PAY had a tough trip last time. (10) JETTY comes off a good effort and might actually end up the favorite despite the outside post.
Monique's Kentucky Derby Betting Tips and Picks
By MONIQUE VÁG
Monique's Kentucky Derby Betting Tips and Picks
There is arguably no harder race to try and handicap than the Kentucky Derby, however, many bettors still find themselves obsessed with trying to figure the puzzle of the race out. Covers personality - and major racing bettor - Monique Vag shares her tips and picks the "Run for the Roses".
Kentucky Derby Weekend is quickly approaching and whether you plan on placing wagers throughout, or saving your money for the big race, the approach to choosing winners always differs. If you're a bettor who spends hours studying through a form and analyzing past races, someone who bets based on colors, or someone who just has a lucky number, there's money to be made and bets to be placed.
"Mo V's" Tips and Tricks for betting the Kentucky Derby
Pay attention to the final prep races before the Derby
Horses may be excused for having a couple bad races or breaking their maiden late, however, being in top form for the Kentucky Derby is a must. The last winner after running fifth or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege in '57.
Know the starting post positions
Since 1930, the most winners have come out of Post 10 with nine Kentucky Derby victories. Second with eight wins are Posts 1, 5, 8, and 10. There has only been one winner out of post positions 18, 19 and 20 and none out of Post 17.
Don't panic analyzing numbers. Instead, go for jockeys or trainers that have won the big race in the past
When it comes to sports, experience matters - so look no further than people that have been there and won it before. Jockeys Joel Rosario, John Velazquez, Gary Stevens, Calvin Borel have all won the Kentucky Derby at least once. Todd Pletcher has one win and Bob Baffert has won three times in the past. Together they train six of the 20 horses.
20 hours ago
Horses to Watch and Bets to be Made
I've had horrendous luck betting the Kentucky Derby over the past couple of years. Of course, I was apart of ArchArchArch pulling up lame right after the race with a fractured foot. He was working out what seemed to be a perfect trip breaking out of the rail post until it all went wrong. However, this year my luck will be turning around (cue the stereotypical gamblers fallacy).
Since 2000, the average payout for $2 Superfecta wager is $71,799.10 and trifecta wager is 3,699.00. While it seems awfully ambitious to provide a Superfecta hopeful, I'll just be giving my insight on some horses that may be in the money at a good price. The longest shot to ever win a Kentucky Derby was 91-1 in 1913 with Donerail, so playing long shots is always an option - one I intend to tackle.
Kentucky Derby 2014
21 hours ago
Good luck with your bets for this year's "Run for the Roses". Check back with Covers this Sunday to find out how I spent my Kentucky Derby Saturday.
See you at the track!
By MONIQUE VÁG
Monique's Kentucky Derby Betting Tips and Picks
There is arguably no harder race to try and handicap than the Kentucky Derby, however, many bettors still find themselves obsessed with trying to figure the puzzle of the race out. Covers personality - and major racing bettor - Monique Vag shares her tips and picks the "Run for the Roses".
Kentucky Derby Weekend is quickly approaching and whether you plan on placing wagers throughout, or saving your money for the big race, the approach to choosing winners always differs. If you're a bettor who spends hours studying through a form and analyzing past races, someone who bets based on colors, or someone who just has a lucky number, there's money to be made and bets to be placed.
"Mo V's" Tips and Tricks for betting the Kentucky Derby
Pay attention to the final prep races before the Derby
Horses may be excused for having a couple bad races or breaking their maiden late, however, being in top form for the Kentucky Derby is a must. The last winner after running fifth or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege in '57.
Know the starting post positions
Since 1930, the most winners have come out of Post 10 with nine Kentucky Derby victories. Second with eight wins are Posts 1, 5, 8, and 10. There has only been one winner out of post positions 18, 19 and 20 and none out of Post 17.
Don't panic analyzing numbers. Instead, go for jockeys or trainers that have won the big race in the past
When it comes to sports, experience matters - so look no further than people that have been there and won it before. Jockeys Joel Rosario, John Velazquez, Gary Stevens, Calvin Borel have all won the Kentucky Derby at least once. Todd Pletcher has one win and Bob Baffert has won three times in the past. Together they train six of the 20 horses.
20 hours ago
Horses to Watch and Bets to be Made
I've had horrendous luck betting the Kentucky Derby over the past couple of years. Of course, I was apart of ArchArchArch pulling up lame right after the race with a fractured foot. He was working out what seemed to be a perfect trip breaking out of the rail post until it all went wrong. However, this year my luck will be turning around (cue the stereotypical gamblers fallacy).
Since 2000, the average payout for $2 Superfecta wager is $71,799.10 and trifecta wager is 3,699.00. While it seems awfully ambitious to provide a Superfecta hopeful, I'll just be giving my insight on some horses that may be in the money at a good price. The longest shot to ever win a Kentucky Derby was 91-1 in 1913 with Donerail, so playing long shots is always an option - one I intend to tackle.
Kentucky Derby 2014
21 hours ago
Good luck with your bets for this year's "Run for the Roses". Check back with Covers this Sunday to find out how I spent my Kentucky Derby Saturday.
See you at the track!
Kentucky Derby betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks
A lot of has been made about how poorly the favorites have done in the Kentucky Derby but the numbers are a bit misleading. From 1980 to 1999 not one chalk won the “Run for the Roses”.
Since then, however, the favorite has won the first leg of the Triple Crown five times (36 percent) including last year when Orb went off as the lukewarm choice. Perhaps that's a good sign for California Chrome, a sensation from the Golden State, who drew Post 5 and was installed as the +250 top choice for Saturday's race.
Here is a look at the entire field:
1. Vicar's in Trouble (Jockey: Rosie Napravnik, 20/1)
Napravnik said that starting from Post 1 won't cause any troubles but no horse has won from there since Ferdinand in 1986. Vicar’s in Trouble won the $1 million Louisiana Derby but no female jockey has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
2. Harry's Holiday (Corey Lanerie, 50/1)
A decided long shot who has won over the strip but hasn't fared well against this type of field and has the worst Beyer speed ratings of all the entries. Lanerie's first Kentucky Derby mount.
3. Uncle Sigh (Irad Ortiz Jr., 30/1)
Named for the character in the cable TV hit "Duck Dynasty" but you have to wonder if this one will make the money that show has and more importantly, whether he can get this distance. Ortiz figures to take this one out quickly.
4. Danza (Joe Bravo, 8/1)
The first and perhaps the best of trainer Todd Pletcher's four entrants. Danza won the Arkansas Derby at 41/1 at Oaklawn and has been fantastic schooling this week. Likes to run along the rail.
5. California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, 5/2)
Many variables are working against CC, most of which is the lack of success that Cal-bred horses have had in the Kentucky Derby. But he's won four straight including the top prep, the Santa Anita Derby. Has six wins in 10 starts and deserves to be the favorite.
6. Samraat (Jose Ortiz, 15/1)
Ultra-consistent colt had his five-race winning streak snapped in the Wood last time out. Stalking style suits the race well but the distance could be his downfall.
7. We Miss Artie (Javier Castellano, 50/1)
Beat Harry's Holiday in a tight photo finish in the Spiral Stakes but has raced just twice on dirt with no success. Another Pletcher runner and the consensus feel that synthetic is his best surface.
8. General a Rod (Joel Rosario, 15/1)
Certainly a contender who could vie for the lead. Has hit the board in all five career starts, including solid prep races (Gulfstream Park Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.) Rosario won the Derby last year.
9. Vinceremos (Joe Rocco Jr., 30/1)
If you believe in this one you have to throw out his last start when he finished last in a field of 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Can't see him coming back from that performance against these types.
10. Wildcat Red (Luis Saez, 15/1)
Another consistent colt who could try to go gate-to-wire. Has won four of seven starts in his career and it would be five if he wasn't disqualified once. Has not worked well this week.
11. Dance With Fate (Corey Nakatani, 20/1)
Will be flying at the finish but Nakatani has had no success in the race, winless in 16 starts. Performance on dirt is also a question.
12. Chitu (Martin Prado, 20/1)
Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won three Derbies, but the size of the field could be a problem for this one who tends to grind out a middle move. Has won three of four starts and the only horse to beat him is Candy Boy in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. Medal Count (Robby Albarado, 20/1)
Took second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland just eight days after winning the Transylvania Stakes. All horses celebrate their birthdays on Jan. 1 but Medal Count actually turned three years old on Thursday and is the youngest horse in the race.
14. Tapiture (Ricardo Santana, 12/1)
No horse out of the sizzling sire Tapit has won the Kentucky Derby but this stalker has plenty of experience over this surface. Half brother to Untapable - the heavy favorite of the Kentucky Oaks - has an impressive score in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
15. Intense Holiday (John Velazquez, 12/1)
Pletcher-Velazquez combo is always a threat. Won the Risen Star Stakes and was second to Vicar's in Trouble in the Louisiana Derby. Velazquez won the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom and Orb won wearing No. 16 last year.
16. Commanding Curve (Shaun Bridgmohan, 50/1)
Owns just a maiden win in six starts and could carry the longest odds of any horse in the field. Bright spot is the post won't hurt because he starts slowly but No. 17 has never won a Kentucky Derby.
17. Candy Boy (Gary Stevens, 15/1)
Gets the legendary jock and was third to California Chrome and Hoppertunity – a scratch from Saturday’s field - in the Santa Anita Derby. Stevens has three Kentucky Derby victories and Candy Boy's speed figures suggest he can't cut it but I give him more than a puncher’s chance.
18. Ride On Curlin (Calvin Borel, 15/1)
Borel will have a lot of work to do to get this one to the rail from post No. 19. Is the son of Curlin, who was third in the Kentucky Derby in 2007, and is too good not to make some noise in this event.
19. Wicked Strong (Rajiv Maragh, 6/1)
The lightly-raced colt flashed his great late speed winning the Wood Memorial, which was one of the most impressive performances on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown won the Derby from post No. 20.
20. Pablo Del Monte (Jeffrey Sanchez, 50/1)
Drew in after Hoppertunity, who was the morning line second choice was scratched on Friday. A decided long shot who has some early speed and ran a solid race in the Bluegrass.
Picks: California Chrome, Candy Boy, Danza.
A lot of has been made about how poorly the favorites have done in the Kentucky Derby but the numbers are a bit misleading. From 1980 to 1999 not one chalk won the “Run for the Roses”.
Since then, however, the favorite has won the first leg of the Triple Crown five times (36 percent) including last year when Orb went off as the lukewarm choice. Perhaps that's a good sign for California Chrome, a sensation from the Golden State, who drew Post 5 and was installed as the +250 top choice for Saturday's race.
Here is a look at the entire field:
1. Vicar's in Trouble (Jockey: Rosie Napravnik, 20/1)
Napravnik said that starting from Post 1 won't cause any troubles but no horse has won from there since Ferdinand in 1986. Vicar’s in Trouble won the $1 million Louisiana Derby but no female jockey has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
2. Harry's Holiday (Corey Lanerie, 50/1)
A decided long shot who has won over the strip but hasn't fared well against this type of field and has the worst Beyer speed ratings of all the entries. Lanerie's first Kentucky Derby mount.
3. Uncle Sigh (Irad Ortiz Jr., 30/1)
Named for the character in the cable TV hit "Duck Dynasty" but you have to wonder if this one will make the money that show has and more importantly, whether he can get this distance. Ortiz figures to take this one out quickly.
4. Danza (Joe Bravo, 8/1)
The first and perhaps the best of trainer Todd Pletcher's four entrants. Danza won the Arkansas Derby at 41/1 at Oaklawn and has been fantastic schooling this week. Likes to run along the rail.
5. California Chrome (Victor Espinoza, 5/2)
Many variables are working against CC, most of which is the lack of success that Cal-bred horses have had in the Kentucky Derby. But he's won four straight including the top prep, the Santa Anita Derby. Has six wins in 10 starts and deserves to be the favorite.
6. Samraat (Jose Ortiz, 15/1)
Ultra-consistent colt had his five-race winning streak snapped in the Wood last time out. Stalking style suits the race well but the distance could be his downfall.
7. We Miss Artie (Javier Castellano, 50/1)
Beat Harry's Holiday in a tight photo finish in the Spiral Stakes but has raced just twice on dirt with no success. Another Pletcher runner and the consensus feel that synthetic is his best surface.
8. General a Rod (Joel Rosario, 15/1)
Certainly a contender who could vie for the lead. Has hit the board in all five career starts, including solid prep races (Gulfstream Park Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.) Rosario won the Derby last year.
9. Vinceremos (Joe Rocco Jr., 30/1)
If you believe in this one you have to throw out his last start when he finished last in a field of 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Can't see him coming back from that performance against these types.
10. Wildcat Red (Luis Saez, 15/1)
Another consistent colt who could try to go gate-to-wire. Has won four of seven starts in his career and it would be five if he wasn't disqualified once. Has not worked well this week.
11. Dance With Fate (Corey Nakatani, 20/1)
Will be flying at the finish but Nakatani has had no success in the race, winless in 16 starts. Performance on dirt is also a question.
12. Chitu (Martin Prado, 20/1)
Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won three Derbies, but the size of the field could be a problem for this one who tends to grind out a middle move. Has won three of four starts and the only horse to beat him is Candy Boy in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. Medal Count (Robby Albarado, 20/1)
Took second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland just eight days after winning the Transylvania Stakes. All horses celebrate their birthdays on Jan. 1 but Medal Count actually turned three years old on Thursday and is the youngest horse in the race.
14. Tapiture (Ricardo Santana, 12/1)
No horse out of the sizzling sire Tapit has won the Kentucky Derby but this stalker has plenty of experience over this surface. Half brother to Untapable - the heavy favorite of the Kentucky Oaks - has an impressive score in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
15. Intense Holiday (John Velazquez, 12/1)
Pletcher-Velazquez combo is always a threat. Won the Risen Star Stakes and was second to Vicar's in Trouble in the Louisiana Derby. Velazquez won the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom and Orb won wearing No. 16 last year.
16. Commanding Curve (Shaun Bridgmohan, 50/1)
Owns just a maiden win in six starts and could carry the longest odds of any horse in the field. Bright spot is the post won't hurt because he starts slowly but No. 17 has never won a Kentucky Derby.
17. Candy Boy (Gary Stevens, 15/1)
Gets the legendary jock and was third to California Chrome and Hoppertunity – a scratch from Saturday’s field - in the Santa Anita Derby. Stevens has three Kentucky Derby victories and Candy Boy's speed figures suggest he can't cut it but I give him more than a puncher’s chance.
18. Ride On Curlin (Calvin Borel, 15/1)
Borel will have a lot of work to do to get this one to the rail from post No. 19. Is the son of Curlin, who was third in the Kentucky Derby in 2007, and is too good not to make some noise in this event.
19. Wicked Strong (Rajiv Maragh, 6/1)
The lightly-raced colt flashed his great late speed winning the Wood Memorial, which was one of the most impressive performances on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown won the Derby from post No. 20.
20. Pablo Del Monte (Jeffrey Sanchez, 50/1)
Drew in after Hoppertunity, who was the morning line second choice was scratched on Friday. A decided long shot who has some early speed and ran a solid race in the Bluegrass.
Picks: California Chrome, Candy Boy, Danza.
THE WIZARD'S 2014 KY DERBY
STAKES PACKAGE WITH WAGERS
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/03/2014
Wagering Strategy
* Win-Place-Show bet on (14) MEDAL COUNT, 20-1 on the morning line
* Win bet on (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY, 12-1 on the morning line
* Exacta box (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (14) MEDAL COUNT & (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY = $12 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (14) MEDAL COUNT, (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY & (20) WICKED STRONG = $24 for a
$2 wager
* Exactas (14) MEDAL COUNT & (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY over (4) DANZA, (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (18) CANDY BOY &
(20) WICKED STRONG,
* Reverse 4-5-18-20 over 14-16 for an EQUAL AMOUNT
NOTE: For those who would like to take a shot for a potential huge score if one of our 2 top selections win, and a smaller ticket if
one of them runs second, I have constructed 2 Trifecta wagers. Churchill Downs and wagering platforms that are taking Kentucky
Derby bets allow $0.50 cent wagers.
* Trifectas 14-16 over 4-5-14-16-18-20 over 4-5-6-8-10-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20 = $60 for a $0.50 wager
* Trifectas 4-5-14-16-18-20 over 14-16 over 4-5-6-12-14-16-17-18-20 = $35 for a $0.50 wager
STAKES PACKAGE WITH WAGERS
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/03/2014
Wagering Strategy
* Win-Place-Show bet on (14) MEDAL COUNT, 20-1 on the morning line
* Win bet on (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY, 12-1 on the morning line
* Exacta box (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (14) MEDAL COUNT & (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY = $12 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (14) MEDAL COUNT, (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY & (20) WICKED STRONG = $24 for a
$2 wager
* Exactas (14) MEDAL COUNT & (16) INTENSE HOLIDAY over (4) DANZA, (5) CALIFORNIA CHROME, (18) CANDY BOY &
(20) WICKED STRONG,
* Reverse 4-5-18-20 over 14-16 for an EQUAL AMOUNT
NOTE: For those who would like to take a shot for a potential huge score if one of our 2 top selections win, and a smaller ticket if
one of them runs second, I have constructed 2 Trifecta wagers. Churchill Downs and wagering platforms that are taking Kentucky
Derby bets allow $0.50 cent wagers.
* Trifectas 14-16 over 4-5-14-16-18-20 over 4-5-6-8-10-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20 = $60 for a $0.50 wager
* Trifectas 4-5-14-16-18-20 over 14-16 over 4-5-6-12-14-16-17-18-20 = $35 for a $0.50 wager
Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella
Game: Winner at Non Opponent May 3 2014 6:20PM
Prediction: Winner
Reason: Just like former Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2010) and Super Saver (2011), Danza (#4) will be making his 3rd start of his 3 year old season in the Kentucky Derby. Also like Super Saver, Danza is trainer by Todd Pletcher and made his previous start in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I), but while Super Saver finished 3rd, Danza won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths.
Danza broke his maiden in his career debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then immediately jumped into the Saratoga Special, a Grade II stakes race at Saratoga. That was a 6 furlong sprint and he closed fast to finished 3rd, beaten by less than a length by the speedy Corfu. After that race, he was put on the shelf for an 8 month layoff and returned this spring in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in Miami. That was just a prep at 7 furlongs and then Pletcher moved him into his first 2 turn route race in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.
Even though it was Danza's first route, he won the 1 1/8 mile race by more than 4 lengths. Interestingly, he was only .13 seconds slower than the stake race run the race before that same day that was won by multiple-grade I stake winner, Will Take Charge. Will Take Charge is an older 4 year old, who was one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup Classic (Grade I). The runner up to Will Take Charge was Revolutionary, who you may know from finishing 3rd in last year's Kentucky Derby to Orb!
It was no surprise that Danza won the 1 1/8 Arkansas Derby, as his 2 siblings are winners at even longer distances, with his brother, Consider Yourself, winning at 1 3/8 miles in a graded stakes in Britian and his other brother winning this year's Tokoyo Derby at Santa Anita (Southern California) at 1 1/2 miles- both of those wins are longer distances than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. With Danza fresh, and rounding into form for a former Derby-winning trainer like Todd Pletcher, we'll take the BIG PRICE on him this Saturday!
The Play: DANZA (#4) to Win & Place.
Bonus Exactas:
5-Horse Exacta BOX: 4-5-11-16-19
Using Danza (#4), California Chrome (#5), Dance with Fate (#12), Commanding Curve (#17) and Wicked Strong (#20)
NOTE: This is a $20 ticket for a $1 Exacta Box
Exacta Key: Play #4 Danza for first and second with ALL horses (#4 with ALL & ALL with #4)
Note: These are $19 Exacta Keys for a $1 ticket, total cost is $38 for first and second place.
Game: Winner at Non Opponent May 3 2014 6:20PM
Prediction: Winner
Reason: Just like former Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2010) and Super Saver (2011), Danza (#4) will be making his 3rd start of his 3 year old season in the Kentucky Derby. Also like Super Saver, Danza is trainer by Todd Pletcher and made his previous start in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I), but while Super Saver finished 3rd, Danza won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths.
Danza broke his maiden in his career debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then immediately jumped into the Saratoga Special, a Grade II stakes race at Saratoga. That was a 6 furlong sprint and he closed fast to finished 3rd, beaten by less than a length by the speedy Corfu. After that race, he was put on the shelf for an 8 month layoff and returned this spring in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in Miami. That was just a prep at 7 furlongs and then Pletcher moved him into his first 2 turn route race in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.
Even though it was Danza's first route, he won the 1 1/8 mile race by more than 4 lengths. Interestingly, he was only .13 seconds slower than the stake race run the race before that same day that was won by multiple-grade I stake winner, Will Take Charge. Will Take Charge is an older 4 year old, who was one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup Classic (Grade I). The runner up to Will Take Charge was Revolutionary, who you may know from finishing 3rd in last year's Kentucky Derby to Orb!
It was no surprise that Danza won the 1 1/8 Arkansas Derby, as his 2 siblings are winners at even longer distances, with his brother, Consider Yourself, winning at 1 3/8 miles in a graded stakes in Britian and his other brother winning this year's Tokoyo Derby at Santa Anita (Southern California) at 1 1/2 miles- both of those wins are longer distances than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. With Danza fresh, and rounding into form for a former Derby-winning trainer like Todd Pletcher, we'll take the BIG PRICE on him this Saturday!
The Play: DANZA (#4) to Win & Place.
Bonus Exactas:
5-Horse Exacta BOX: 4-5-11-16-19
Using Danza (#4), California Chrome (#5), Dance with Fate (#12), Commanding Curve (#17) and Wicked Strong (#20)
NOTE: This is a $20 ticket for a $1 Exacta Box
Exacta Key: Play #4 Danza for first and second with ALL horses (#4 with ALL & ALL with #4)
Note: These are $19 Exacta Keys for a $1 ticket, total cost is $38 for first and second place.
Wicked Strong coming to hand at right time
By Andrew Beyer
DRF
Since 20-horse fields have become the norm in the Kentucky Derby, America’s most famous race also is its most inscrutable race. It has produced many surprising winners and some who defy comprehension, such as 50-1 shots Mine That Bird in 2009 and Giacomo in 2005. It is so contentious that no horse in the last four years has gone to the post at odds of less than 4-1.
But the 140th Derby appears to be different. It will have a clear-cut favorite in California Chrome, the winner of four straight stakes by a total of 24 1/4 lengths. In my opinion, it’s basically a two-horse race between California Chrome and Wicked Strong.
The field lacks depth because so many talented colts have been sidelined or retired due to injury or illness. The top three 2-year-olds in last year’s Eclipse Award voting – Shared Belief, New Year’s Day, and Havana – have not raced in 2014.
Other outstanding 3-year-olds – including Honor Code, Cairo Prince, and the undefeated Constitution – have been knocked out of action in the last few weeks. In their absence, many horses with little chance to win have qualified for a spot in the starting gate.
In an era when Thoroughbreds are more fragile than their forebears and trainers campaign them sparingly, California Chrome is a throwback. His 77-year-old trainer, Art Sherman, remembers the old days – in 1955, he was the exercise rider for the great horse Swaps and traveled with him in a railroad boxcar to Louisville.
He has managed California Chrome as if this were 1955, running him 10 times coming into the Derby, more than any other starter. There are no doubts about California Chrome’s seasoning and fitness.
The humbly bred colt was no prodigy, but he has developed into a full-fledged star in the last two months, running away with the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. He dominated a strong crop of California 3-year-olds who confirmed their merit when they raced outside of their home state. The Bob Baffert-trained Hoppertunity beat the best Arkansas-based 3-year-olds in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but California Chrome trounced him in the Santa Anita Derby.
California Chrome is quick. He’s not a one-dimensional front-runner, but in his last two victories he was on or near the lead over a racetrack that favored horses with his style. (On the day of the Santa Anita Derby, six of the seven dirt races were won by horses who took a clear lead or dueled for the lead.)
In the Kentucky Derby, however, horses racing at the front of the pack are often at a disadvantage. As jockeys on speedsters hustle from the gate to secure a good position, the early pace of the Derby can be so fast that every horse near the lead weakens. (That’s what happened in 2013, when Orb rallied from 17th place to win.)
The pace scenario is hard to predict this year, but there are plenty of quick horses besides California Chrome – notably Chitu, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, and Uncle Sigh – who could produce a suicidal pace.
The favorite’s prospects at 1 1/4 miles also are uncertain. For much of Derby history, pedigree was a crucial factor; horses needed the right genes to succeed at 10 furlongs. In recent years, this requirement has diminished in importance. Nevertheless, California Chrome’s bloodlines are unusually weak. His sire, Lucky Pulpit, never won a race longer than 5 1/2 furlongs.
Wicked Strong has a solid distance-running pedigree and an ideal style for the Derby. He rallied from sixth place to win his most recent start, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, by 3 1/2 lengths.
That effort came after two poor performances in Florida, and some handicappers might dismiss it as a fluke. But last fall in the Remsen Stakes, Wicked Strong showed that he was among the best of his generation. The Remsen was run with a ridiculously slow pace – the leaders crawled through the first six furlongs in 1:17.56. It’s difficult for any horse to rally under such circumstances, but Wicked Strong was gaining on Honor Code and Cairo Prince in the stretch and lost to them by only a half-length. Both of those colts would have been leading Derby contenders if they had stayed healthy.
In the Wood Memorial, Wicked Strong belatedly lived up to the promise he showed as a 2-year-old. His Beyer Speed Figure of 104 wasn’t quite as good as California Chrome’s last two performances (107 and 108), but it was superior to other contenders who will be coming from behind – Danza, Intense Holiday, and Candy Boy. He drew post No. 20, but outside posts have not been a disadvantage in 20-horse fields. With the pace and the distance of the Derby likely to work against the favorite, Wicked Strong is the horse to bet.
My selections: 1) Wicked Strong; 2) California Chrome; 3) Candy Boy.
By Andrew Beyer
DRF
Since 20-horse fields have become the norm in the Kentucky Derby, America’s most famous race also is its most inscrutable race. It has produced many surprising winners and some who defy comprehension, such as 50-1 shots Mine That Bird in 2009 and Giacomo in 2005. It is so contentious that no horse in the last four years has gone to the post at odds of less than 4-1.
But the 140th Derby appears to be different. It will have a clear-cut favorite in California Chrome, the winner of four straight stakes by a total of 24 1/4 lengths. In my opinion, it’s basically a two-horse race between California Chrome and Wicked Strong.
The field lacks depth because so many talented colts have been sidelined or retired due to injury or illness. The top three 2-year-olds in last year’s Eclipse Award voting – Shared Belief, New Year’s Day, and Havana – have not raced in 2014.
Other outstanding 3-year-olds – including Honor Code, Cairo Prince, and the undefeated Constitution – have been knocked out of action in the last few weeks. In their absence, many horses with little chance to win have qualified for a spot in the starting gate.
In an era when Thoroughbreds are more fragile than their forebears and trainers campaign them sparingly, California Chrome is a throwback. His 77-year-old trainer, Art Sherman, remembers the old days – in 1955, he was the exercise rider for the great horse Swaps and traveled with him in a railroad boxcar to Louisville.
He has managed California Chrome as if this were 1955, running him 10 times coming into the Derby, more than any other starter. There are no doubts about California Chrome’s seasoning and fitness.
The humbly bred colt was no prodigy, but he has developed into a full-fledged star in the last two months, running away with the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. He dominated a strong crop of California 3-year-olds who confirmed their merit when they raced outside of their home state. The Bob Baffert-trained Hoppertunity beat the best Arkansas-based 3-year-olds in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but California Chrome trounced him in the Santa Anita Derby.
California Chrome is quick. He’s not a one-dimensional front-runner, but in his last two victories he was on or near the lead over a racetrack that favored horses with his style. (On the day of the Santa Anita Derby, six of the seven dirt races were won by horses who took a clear lead or dueled for the lead.)
In the Kentucky Derby, however, horses racing at the front of the pack are often at a disadvantage. As jockeys on speedsters hustle from the gate to secure a good position, the early pace of the Derby can be so fast that every horse near the lead weakens. (That’s what happened in 2013, when Orb rallied from 17th place to win.)
The pace scenario is hard to predict this year, but there are plenty of quick horses besides California Chrome – notably Chitu, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, and Uncle Sigh – who could produce a suicidal pace.
The favorite’s prospects at 1 1/4 miles also are uncertain. For much of Derby history, pedigree was a crucial factor; horses needed the right genes to succeed at 10 furlongs. In recent years, this requirement has diminished in importance. Nevertheless, California Chrome’s bloodlines are unusually weak. His sire, Lucky Pulpit, never won a race longer than 5 1/2 furlongs.
Wicked Strong has a solid distance-running pedigree and an ideal style for the Derby. He rallied from sixth place to win his most recent start, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, by 3 1/2 lengths.
That effort came after two poor performances in Florida, and some handicappers might dismiss it as a fluke. But last fall in the Remsen Stakes, Wicked Strong showed that he was among the best of his generation. The Remsen was run with a ridiculously slow pace – the leaders crawled through the first six furlongs in 1:17.56. It’s difficult for any horse to rally under such circumstances, but Wicked Strong was gaining on Honor Code and Cairo Prince in the stretch and lost to them by only a half-length. Both of those colts would have been leading Derby contenders if they had stayed healthy.
In the Wood Memorial, Wicked Strong belatedly lived up to the promise he showed as a 2-year-old. His Beyer Speed Figure of 104 wasn’t quite as good as California Chrome’s last two performances (107 and 108), but it was superior to other contenders who will be coming from behind – Danza, Intense Holiday, and Candy Boy. He drew post No. 20, but outside posts have not been a disadvantage in 20-horse fields. With the pace and the distance of the Derby likely to work against the favorite, Wicked Strong is the horse to bet.
My selections: 1) Wicked Strong; 2) California Chrome; 3) Candy Boy.
