13-0-1 today

[locker8]

To kind of continue with the other thread i wrote today about betting a team total instead of betting -1.5
Its not 100% the same but heres what i think we should track.
If you are getting plus money this doesn't apply really but heres what i am thinking.
Betting a favorite over probably -130 maybe we should always just play over on the team total instead, i know this is only today but the team that won the game today was over their team total at a rate of 13-0-1
hmmm was today just a fluke not sure but its worth looking into

 

[TheZMan]

Like your idea. So what you're saying if I understand correctly.... You are suggesting Team Total on Favorites -130 or higher (negative wise). Let's get a week of data let's say?

 

[locker8]

yes thats what i got today and i agree with gathering data i will monitor it all next week and post what i find

 

[locker8]

i really think we play the the tt over as long as its a better price than playing the favorite

 

[razorbackpicks]

What about plus money RL that hit? What about pitchers games that go 2-0, 3-1, 4-2... And you would often lose huge juice on TT but won plus money on the RL.

Just go go back on the last 2-3 weeks and see how it shook out. I'm curious myself.

 

[TheZMan]

screw it... i'll test it tonight. going to bet the cubs TT

 

[Biz]

So we are saying......favorites of -130 or more play the TT?I'll back check against Heritage closing lines when I get some free time.

 

[locker8]

I'm saying if u think the dog is going to win for sure take the plus money but if u think the favorite is going to win and their TT over is at a better price especially if ur like a large fav instead of paying a high price for them instead play their team total over ie if u like the Cubs tonight play the TT over instead of the -175
today it was 13-0-1 but that was just today not sure what the numbers look like over a long haul but I'm going to monitor it for a while

 

[TheZMan]

Well now you have thrown human insight into it. Like on shark tank.... I'm out. Good luck to you.

 

[locker8]

guys all I'm looking to do is eliminate playing large favs.
razor ur right if u play a fav and he wins 2-0 it didn't win i do get that
but what about that big fav that loses
so tonight lets say you lay 875 to win 500 on the cubs if u win its +500 lose its -875
lets say you lay 875 on tt over 4.5 -125 if u win its +700 lose it-875
ok now lets say they win 2-0 yes you would have won again you would have had to wager 875 to win that 500 but you could also have had the cubs loss 8-6 and have won and for 875 won 700
i hope I'm making sense with all thi

 

[locker8]

play 1000.00 on cubs to win +572
play 1000.00 on cubs tt over 4.5 to win 800.00
i think its worth the gamble

 

[Biz]

In order to backtest, you have to test the favs you think will win. Its subjective. So backtesting is impossible.

To monitor it, you need to pick the games before they start.

Start a thread, post the games where you think the favorites above -130 will win, and post the TT and price. Track from there. Its the only way to get some sort of record for your theory.

 

[locker8]

ok biz i will give it a try
thanks for listening

 

[Biz]

Any time GL

 

[pappy324]

Took a shot on the Cubbies ^4.5. Let's give it a go.

 

[mn fats]

This theory is intriguing. I also took Cubs O4.5. Look forward to seeing how the theory holds up as you test it.

 

[locker8]

Good luck guys were all in this together tonight

 

[locker8]

This thought process was , I believe it is better to play the TT on a big favorite instead of playing the 1.5 RL

 

[mn fats]

Instead of -130 and higher as a favorite team total to play, I'm thinking you might want to start at -140 (or higher?). At what level would you likely never play the dog? The more a team is favored, the less likely it would be that you would pick the dog. Thus, you would be removing subjectivity from your theory.

 

[KingEleven]

good luck and please let us know