12/10 Hoops - 1st 3 unit play of year

[PWillie]

12-12 YTD, -$470

2 unit plays: 2-5 YTD, -$700
1 unit plays: 10-7-1 YTD, +$230

3 unit play: E. Illinois +13.5

2 unit play: Indiana +1
2 unit play: New Mexico -1.5

1 unit play: Over 128 Butler/Bradley
1 unit play: UL-Monroe +10.5
1 unit play: Xavier -15.5
1 unit play: Over 144.5 Boise St./BYU

GLTA:toast:

 

[PWillie]

See E. Illinois @ +15.5 now @ WSEX, so adding:

1 unit: E. Illinois +15.5

 

[PaperTrail]

P will, how come ya so high on E. Ill?

 

[bzkill]

eastern is a good pick

 

[Basket Case]

Why Eastern Illinois?

Please give us a little insight on why you are making Eastern Illinois your TOP play? :think2:

?

 

[GATA]

curious myself, is this just a gut call?

 

[PWillie]

Several reasons, not of which one stands out too much, but yet all are suggesting these two are not as lobsidedly matched than thought.

1. E. Illinois (All Games) PF 70.9 PA 70.1 = 0.8, Evansville (All games) PF 71.7 PA 59.7 = 12, so averaged out total pt. differential is only 11.
Lean=E. Illinois
2. E. Illinois (Road Games) PF 65.3 PA 73.3 = -8, Evansville (Home Games) PF 74.2 PA 56.6 = 17.6, so averaged out total pt. differential is 12.8. Lean=E. Illinois

E. Illinois has played a slightly tougher schedule.

I'm guessing Evansville might, might be looking ahead to a big game with W. Kentucky next game.

E. Illinois 4-2 ATS against Evansville since 1997.

E. Illinois shooting 47.2 FG% and 45.5% 3pt. FG on road this year, while Evansville shooting 45% FG and 29.2% 3 pt. FG at home this year.

E. Illinois's 5 losses average out to 7 pts. per loss, with 13 being the largest margin of defeat.

I'm guessing that Evansville laying double digits historically is not a winning proposition overall, so just thinking too many points in this one. GL:toast:

 

[Basket Case]

Thanks, PWillie, for Explanation!

:cripwalk:

:cripwalk:

 

[PWillie]

Adding 2nd half play:

Over 65.5 Missouri St./ Tulsa - 1 unit

GL:toast:

 

[Basket Case]

GREAT Call on Eastern Illiniois! PROPS!

Roberts Stadium (Evansville, IN)
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1 align=middle><TH align=left width="60%">Final</TH><TD width="10%">1</TD><TD width="10%">2</TD><TH width="10%">T</TH></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD class=NCAABEIL noWrap align=left height=17>Eastern Illinois (2-6)</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>39</TD><TD class=finalscore>76</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 align=middle><TD class=NCAABEVAN noWrap align=left height=17>Evansville (6-1) «</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>35</TD><TD class=finalscore>80</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[PWillie]

Thanks Basket - game went about like I thought, although being down 14 in the 1st half was cause for worry I will admit. Lookin' like a pretty good nite if everything can hold. Thanks again :toast: