119-75 (61%) posted record...Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves

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Russ Ortiz goes for his eighth straight win tonight as the NL East leading Braves host the NL Central leading Houston Astros.

Atlanta own the best record in baseball and at 69-36 (.657) lead the Phillies by a whopping 11 1/2 games in the NL East. They come off a four-game split at Montreal in which they scored at least eight runs in every game and are averaging an amazing 7.7 runs through their last 20 games.

29 year-old right-hander Ortiz looks to extend what has been an excellent season thus far. He is 14-4 with a 3.55 ERA and the Braves are 17-5 (.773) when he heads to the mound. Ortiz ranks second in the National League in wins (14) and winning percentage (.778) and sixth in batting average against (.222). Last start he allowed two earned runs through six innings against the Marlins and he has allowed a total of just 15 earned runs in his last eight starts. Those numbers augur well for tonight's match-up against an Astros team that has scored three runs or fewer in every one of their last eight games. In seven career starts against the Astros Ortiz is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA.

Houston are 57-48 (.543) which puts them three games ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Central. Roy Oswalt is 6-5 this season with a 3.20 ERA and although he was solid Wednesday against the Brewers it was reported that he didn't have his fastball. He better find it tonight against a team that is coming off a four-game set in which they scored 43 runs on 66 hits. The Astros are just 9-7 when he starts this season which is a mediocre mark behind such a solid pitcher. Oswalt is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 17-6 this season against the NL Central while the Astros are just 7-11 against the NL East. Combine all of the above with the fact that Atlanta's .706 home winning percentage compares more than favorably with the Astros .462 road mark and while we must oppose Astros ace Oswalt it is still hard to believe we can play the Braves at just -115 tonight.

Atlanta are 9-2 in recent meetings and tonight we'll go with a winning pitcher and the best team in baseball as a very cheap home favorite.

Recommended Play: Braves -115
 

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I usually am pretty conservative when it comes to the first game of each series because lately the dogs have come barking. However, I feel with Atlanta's recent success this is a bet that can't go wrong. I'm taking it with the runline due to Houston's inability to score and because of Atlanta's recent high run production. The runline is at +177 making it a difference of 192 points between moneyline and runline.

Thanks for steering us in the right direction Mike and good luck.
 

SSI

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very nice work again,, hope we match plays tomorrow..
 

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Very nice job, keep up the good work, especially the write-ups, I know it takes time and effort. I think I am talking for others beside myself when I say they are appreciated.

wil.
 

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Here's another one. Thanks Mike.

ps-I should have said there was a difference of 92 points between the ML and RL, not 192 points. Sorry.
 

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