YESTERDAY: 11-5, +7.4 UNITS
SATURDAY MLB:
NY Yankees @ Oakland 4:05 PM EST
Oakland -145 over NY Yankees (4 Units)
Right about now, things must be a bit uneasy in New York, as not only have the Red Sox improved themselves prior to the trade deadline while still hovering just 3.5 games out of first in the East, but the Yanks are now only four games ahead of the wildcard-leading Athletics after last night's 3-2 loss... needless to say, the pressure is on not just within the division, but if the Yanks fail to hold off the Sox, they are anything but a lock for the playoffs in general, especially if Oakland is able to keep up their winning ways against the Bronx Bombers... Already, Oakland has captured victories in five of the last six contests between these teams, and with a pitching mismatch of Barry Zito versus Jeff Weaver, we're fully expecting the Athletics to draw even closer to the AL East leaders...
Zito has certainly had his ups and downs this season, as evidenced by his disappointing 8-8 record... but with a 2.88 ERA at home this season, and a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts, there is little doubt that this is still the same pitcher that captured the Cy Young hardware at age 24... and any lingering doubts about that fact should be erased against the suddenly struggling Yanks, who have scored just two runs in each of their last two games, and have scored more than two runs just once in their last five games against the A's... and considering that the Yankees possess a miserable .163 career batting average against Zito (with Soriano/Giambi/Zeile/Boone a combined 1 for 31), it's difficult to expect New York to fare much better against the lefty than they did in the six instances (in nine Zito starts) where they were held to one earned run or less...
While the Yanks have found scoring against the Athletics to be a difficult proposition, Oakland has been able to avoid the truly mediocre performance against New York by scoring at least two runs in fifteen straight contests, and averaging over four runs per game in those contests... of course, one of Oakland's best offensive performances against the Yankees came in a start by Jeff Weaver, where the disappointing righty allowed six runs in 7.2 innings against the A's, marking the fourth straight time that Weaver has come into Oakland and failed to post a quality start... in allowing 3+ runs in each of those contests, and at least five runs in three of the four contests, Weaver has put together a resume in Oakland that shows 19 runs allowed (including SEVEN home runs) in just 22.2 innings, a performance that gives Weaver a 7.54 ERA in Oakland as a starter...
In looking at the batter vs. pitcher stats in this contest, we are left to wonder why Barry Zito isn't installed as a greater favorite, as we see five Oakland regulars batting .300 or higher against Jeff Weaver, with the quintet (Tejada, Chavez, Long, Ellis and Hernandez) batting a combined .349 with 2 HRs and 11 RBIs in 86 at-bats... compare that to a Yankees lineup that has just 15 career hits in 92 at-bats against Zito, and Oakland's quintet has TWICE at many hits in less at-bats against Weaver than the entire Yanks team has against Zito in more plate appearances... The Yankees will always get a lot of respect from oddsmakers, but there are certain times where you need to know when to go against them... with Jeff Weaver facing Barry Zito in a pitching mismatch, this is one of those occasions... take the Athletics...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 6, NY YANKEES 2
Detroit @ Minnesota 7:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-125) over Detroit (4 Units)
We've heard of teams having another squad's number, but it doesn't get much more dominant than Minnesota's reign of supremacy over the Detroit Tigers... not only have the Twins padded their record with 16 straight wins against the Tigers, but they have won each and every one of those contests by at least two runs, displaying that their dominance is more than just a break here and a key hit there...
What has been truly impressive about this series is the level of consistency that has been displayed by both squads... in all 16 losses to the Twins, Detroit has not once scored more than four runs in a contest... and with Rick Reed on the mound, the Tigers are more likely to land on their average score during this losing streak (two runs per game) than they are to reach their highest tally...
You see, while Rick Reed may not be having his most consistent season, he has been much improved at home as the season has progressed... take out two mediocre home starts against the Mariners, and Reed has now allowed just nine runs in his last five home starts, spanning 36 innings of work, and giving Reed a 2.25 ERA (as well as giving Minnesota four wins in five contests)... considering that Reed has been consistently excellent against the Tigers (allowing two runs or less in each of his four career starts against them, and just 6 runs in 24.2 innings), the likelihood of a 17th straight Minnesota win increases exponentially...
The Twins have scored at least four runs in each of their last seven home games against the Tigers, and have averaged over seven runs per game in that span... and with Mike Maroth taking the mound for the Tigers, we can fully expect the offensive fireworks (which have led to 10 runs in each of Minnesota's last two games) to continue... after all, Maroth has now allowed 5+ runs in each of his last three starts (giving up a whopping 17 runs and 25 hits, including SEVEN home runs, in just 19 innings of work), and has gone five straight starts where he has failed to give up less than four runs to the opposition...
In two career starts in Minnesota, Maroth has been just as ineffective, allowing five runs in each contest, and a total of 10 runs and 17 hits in just 11.1 innings of work... and while Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 in Reed's home starts against the Tigers, Detroit is winless in Maroth's three starts against the Twins... with each of those contests decided by two or more runs, and with the same margin of victory occurring in each of Minnesota's last 16 wins against the Tigers, we're going to maximize our chances of profit by focusing on the runline... for if Minnesota is to win this game, it will most likely be by more than a single run, and we'd much rather be dealing with -125 juice than the -210 moneyline that is currently in play...
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 7, DETROIT 2
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Cleveland @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas -115 over Cleveland (4 Units)
Houston @ Florida 6:05 PM EST
Houston +110 over Florida (1 Unit)
Houston/Florida Under 9 (3.5 Units)
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 6:35 PM EST
Pittsburgh +125 over Colorado (3.5 Units)
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 PM EST
Baltimore +150 over Boston (1 Unit)
Baltimore/Boston Under 10 (3.5 Units)
Toronto @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Toronto +165 over Anaheim (2 Units)
Toronto/Anaheim Under 9 (3 Units)
San Diego @ Philadelphia 5:05 PM EST (GAME ONE OF DH)
San Diego +165 over Philadelphia (1 Unit)
San Diego/Philadelphia Over 8 (2.5 Units)
San Diego @ Philadelphia 8:05 PM EST (GAME TWO OF DH)
Philadelphia -155 over San Diego (2.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 1:15 PM EST (IN PROGRESS)
Cincinnati +165 over San Francisco (2 Units)
Arizona @ Cubs 4:05 PM EST
Cubs/Arizona Under 9 (2 Units)
Milwaukee @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -205 over Milwaukee (2 Units)
White Sox @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle/White Sox Over 9 (1.5 Units)
SATURDAY MLB:
NY Yankees @ Oakland 4:05 PM EST
Oakland -145 over NY Yankees (4 Units)
Right about now, things must be a bit uneasy in New York, as not only have the Red Sox improved themselves prior to the trade deadline while still hovering just 3.5 games out of first in the East, but the Yanks are now only four games ahead of the wildcard-leading Athletics after last night's 3-2 loss... needless to say, the pressure is on not just within the division, but if the Yanks fail to hold off the Sox, they are anything but a lock for the playoffs in general, especially if Oakland is able to keep up their winning ways against the Bronx Bombers... Already, Oakland has captured victories in five of the last six contests between these teams, and with a pitching mismatch of Barry Zito versus Jeff Weaver, we're fully expecting the Athletics to draw even closer to the AL East leaders...
Zito has certainly had his ups and downs this season, as evidenced by his disappointing 8-8 record... but with a 2.88 ERA at home this season, and a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts, there is little doubt that this is still the same pitcher that captured the Cy Young hardware at age 24... and any lingering doubts about that fact should be erased against the suddenly struggling Yanks, who have scored just two runs in each of their last two games, and have scored more than two runs just once in their last five games against the A's... and considering that the Yankees possess a miserable .163 career batting average against Zito (with Soriano/Giambi/Zeile/Boone a combined 1 for 31), it's difficult to expect New York to fare much better against the lefty than they did in the six instances (in nine Zito starts) where they were held to one earned run or less...
While the Yanks have found scoring against the Athletics to be a difficult proposition, Oakland has been able to avoid the truly mediocre performance against New York by scoring at least two runs in fifteen straight contests, and averaging over four runs per game in those contests... of course, one of Oakland's best offensive performances against the Yankees came in a start by Jeff Weaver, where the disappointing righty allowed six runs in 7.2 innings against the A's, marking the fourth straight time that Weaver has come into Oakland and failed to post a quality start... in allowing 3+ runs in each of those contests, and at least five runs in three of the four contests, Weaver has put together a resume in Oakland that shows 19 runs allowed (including SEVEN home runs) in just 22.2 innings, a performance that gives Weaver a 7.54 ERA in Oakland as a starter...
In looking at the batter vs. pitcher stats in this contest, we are left to wonder why Barry Zito isn't installed as a greater favorite, as we see five Oakland regulars batting .300 or higher against Jeff Weaver, with the quintet (Tejada, Chavez, Long, Ellis and Hernandez) batting a combined .349 with 2 HRs and 11 RBIs in 86 at-bats... compare that to a Yankees lineup that has just 15 career hits in 92 at-bats against Zito, and Oakland's quintet has TWICE at many hits in less at-bats against Weaver than the entire Yanks team has against Zito in more plate appearances... The Yankees will always get a lot of respect from oddsmakers, but there are certain times where you need to know when to go against them... with Jeff Weaver facing Barry Zito in a pitching mismatch, this is one of those occasions... take the Athletics...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 6, NY YANKEES 2
Detroit @ Minnesota 7:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-125) over Detroit (4 Units)
We've heard of teams having another squad's number, but it doesn't get much more dominant than Minnesota's reign of supremacy over the Detroit Tigers... not only have the Twins padded their record with 16 straight wins against the Tigers, but they have won each and every one of those contests by at least two runs, displaying that their dominance is more than just a break here and a key hit there...
What has been truly impressive about this series is the level of consistency that has been displayed by both squads... in all 16 losses to the Twins, Detroit has not once scored more than four runs in a contest... and with Rick Reed on the mound, the Tigers are more likely to land on their average score during this losing streak (two runs per game) than they are to reach their highest tally...
You see, while Rick Reed may not be having his most consistent season, he has been much improved at home as the season has progressed... take out two mediocre home starts against the Mariners, and Reed has now allowed just nine runs in his last five home starts, spanning 36 innings of work, and giving Reed a 2.25 ERA (as well as giving Minnesota four wins in five contests)... considering that Reed has been consistently excellent against the Tigers (allowing two runs or less in each of his four career starts against them, and just 6 runs in 24.2 innings), the likelihood of a 17th straight Minnesota win increases exponentially...
The Twins have scored at least four runs in each of their last seven home games against the Tigers, and have averaged over seven runs per game in that span... and with Mike Maroth taking the mound for the Tigers, we can fully expect the offensive fireworks (which have led to 10 runs in each of Minnesota's last two games) to continue... after all, Maroth has now allowed 5+ runs in each of his last three starts (giving up a whopping 17 runs and 25 hits, including SEVEN home runs, in just 19 innings of work), and has gone five straight starts where he has failed to give up less than four runs to the opposition...
In two career starts in Minnesota, Maroth has been just as ineffective, allowing five runs in each contest, and a total of 10 runs and 17 hits in just 11.1 innings of work... and while Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 in Reed's home starts against the Tigers, Detroit is winless in Maroth's three starts against the Twins... with each of those contests decided by two or more runs, and with the same margin of victory occurring in each of Minnesota's last 16 wins against the Tigers, we're going to maximize our chances of profit by focusing on the runline... for if Minnesota is to win this game, it will most likely be by more than a single run, and we'd much rather be dealing with -125 juice than the -210 moneyline that is currently in play...
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 7, DETROIT 2
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Cleveland @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas -115 over Cleveland (4 Units)
Houston @ Florida 6:05 PM EST
Houston +110 over Florida (1 Unit)
Houston/Florida Under 9 (3.5 Units)
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 6:35 PM EST
Pittsburgh +125 over Colorado (3.5 Units)
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 PM EST
Baltimore +150 over Boston (1 Unit)
Baltimore/Boston Under 10 (3.5 Units)
Toronto @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Toronto +165 over Anaheim (2 Units)
Toronto/Anaheim Under 9 (3 Units)
San Diego @ Philadelphia 5:05 PM EST (GAME ONE OF DH)
San Diego +165 over Philadelphia (1 Unit)
San Diego/Philadelphia Over 8 (2.5 Units)
San Diego @ Philadelphia 8:05 PM EST (GAME TWO OF DH)
Philadelphia -155 over San Diego (2.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 1:15 PM EST (IN PROGRESS)
Cincinnati +165 over San Francisco (2 Units)
Arizona @ Cubs 4:05 PM EST
Cubs/Arizona Under 9 (2 Units)
Milwaukee @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -205 over Milwaukee (2 Units)
White Sox @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle/White Sox Over 9 (1.5 Units)
