It is hard to handicap this game with out consideration of the weather. Weather should be discussed in a sense of wind and precipitation. These have the MOST effect on a game outcome that other variable weather events. Today's game will be very, very cold. One of the coldest games ever played. Due to that statement, the effect cold weather does need to be addressed. In todays NFL, there will be heated benches, Under Armour apparel and huge heaters on the sidelines. The NFL goes through a protocol for the balls too. The players will NOT be dramatically worse.
In researching this game, I came across an article written by Chris Andrews of Linemakers. The article was regarding the top 10 coldest games. His numbers from those games are pretty one sided when looking at effect. The passing game IS genuinely reduced in productivity. Each team averaged 176.1 yrds passing. QBs completed 50.5% of their throws and averaged 6.0 yrds per attempt. There were 27 interceptions. Teams only averaged 34.2 points per game. Based on this logic, Seattle is in WAY worse position for this game.
Seattle rushes the ball at 141 yards per game (#3 in the NFL). However, most of this was done as a committee of runners. The MOST effective runner is Russell Wilson. He will be the leading rusher for the Seahawks in this game (554yrds) as Marshawn Lunch and Thomas Rawls are not playing. Christine Micheal has been the main guy over the last couple of games (192 yrds and 4.9 average). This is NOT however how the Seahawks have been winning games. They win because Russell Wilson has been playing at a historic level of achievement for any NFL QB. Since 11/22 vs SF, Wilson has thrown 24 Tds with 1 Int! That span is seven games. He is averaging more than 3 td passes per game. He has 34 Tds on the season. Doug Baldwin has emerged as the "go to" wide out. He is certainly enjoying Wilson's run more than anyone. TE Jimmy Graham will not be available for this game nor will Luke Wilson, so they will not have an established TE for the game. The passing game for Seattle will be the most hindered part of this game.
The core strength of each team is defense. Yes Min can rush the ball with the NFL leading rusher Adrian Peterson, but their team and head coach is built around defense. They are the #5 scoring defense. They rank 13th in total defense, so they do have a bit of bend don't break in them. Minnesota was injured down the stretch on defense but have some of those guys available today (LB Anthony Carr and DT Linval Joseph). They will help a lot. Seattle defense is again top notch. I really don't like Teddy Bridgewater in this match up. However, he isn't going to be limited in the game. The Vikings have the 31st ranked passing game. They will continue to be conservative and manage the game.
The Vikings played both the Broncos and the Cardinals this year. Lost to them by identical score of 20-23. They also played the St. Louis Rams and beat them 21-18. These are teams with similar defenses to Seattle in numerical strength. Broncos and Cardinals actually have better offenses than Seattle too. They were NOT over matched in these games. The Seahawks played the Rams twice (lost both times). Each team has outstanding ATS results. For example the Vikings are 21-10 as dog and 13-3 ty. Seattle is 23-7-1 ATS last 5 seasons. No real advantage there. Seattle is MUCH worse road team than home team.
I believe the Vikings are going to be "weather" assisted and hang in this game. Seattle will not be able to explode through the air to make the game get out of reach. Another twist. Reverse the line. If Seattle was the home team, the line would be Seattle -12 based on the -6 points at Bovada this morning (-4.5 would be -10.5). Seeing this line this way, makes me look at value to Minnesota. Seattle was favorite like that against teams like SF, CLE and BAL. I am not advocating Under. The players will be able to make plays, but passing will be hindered. The NFL has also changed many of the rules for offenses since many of the coldest games were played. Minnesota is not getting enough credit and is not as far off as the line is suggesting. Value home under dogs and Minnesota Vikings.
TAKE: Minnesota +6
In researching this game, I came across an article written by Chris Andrews of Linemakers. The article was regarding the top 10 coldest games. His numbers from those games are pretty one sided when looking at effect. The passing game IS genuinely reduced in productivity. Each team averaged 176.1 yrds passing. QBs completed 50.5% of their throws and averaged 6.0 yrds per attempt. There were 27 interceptions. Teams only averaged 34.2 points per game. Based on this logic, Seattle is in WAY worse position for this game.
Seattle rushes the ball at 141 yards per game (#3 in the NFL). However, most of this was done as a committee of runners. The MOST effective runner is Russell Wilson. He will be the leading rusher for the Seahawks in this game (554yrds) as Marshawn Lunch and Thomas Rawls are not playing. Christine Micheal has been the main guy over the last couple of games (192 yrds and 4.9 average). This is NOT however how the Seahawks have been winning games. They win because Russell Wilson has been playing at a historic level of achievement for any NFL QB. Since 11/22 vs SF, Wilson has thrown 24 Tds with 1 Int! That span is seven games. He is averaging more than 3 td passes per game. He has 34 Tds on the season. Doug Baldwin has emerged as the "go to" wide out. He is certainly enjoying Wilson's run more than anyone. TE Jimmy Graham will not be available for this game nor will Luke Wilson, so they will not have an established TE for the game. The passing game for Seattle will be the most hindered part of this game.
The core strength of each team is defense. Yes Min can rush the ball with the NFL leading rusher Adrian Peterson, but their team and head coach is built around defense. They are the #5 scoring defense. They rank 13th in total defense, so they do have a bit of bend don't break in them. Minnesota was injured down the stretch on defense but have some of those guys available today (LB Anthony Carr and DT Linval Joseph). They will help a lot. Seattle defense is again top notch. I really don't like Teddy Bridgewater in this match up. However, he isn't going to be limited in the game. The Vikings have the 31st ranked passing game. They will continue to be conservative and manage the game.
The Vikings played both the Broncos and the Cardinals this year. Lost to them by identical score of 20-23. They also played the St. Louis Rams and beat them 21-18. These are teams with similar defenses to Seattle in numerical strength. Broncos and Cardinals actually have better offenses than Seattle too. They were NOT over matched in these games. The Seahawks played the Rams twice (lost both times). Each team has outstanding ATS results. For example the Vikings are 21-10 as dog and 13-3 ty. Seattle is 23-7-1 ATS last 5 seasons. No real advantage there. Seattle is MUCH worse road team than home team.
I believe the Vikings are going to be "weather" assisted and hang in this game. Seattle will not be able to explode through the air to make the game get out of reach. Another twist. Reverse the line. If Seattle was the home team, the line would be Seattle -12 based on the -6 points at Bovada this morning (-4.5 would be -10.5). Seeing this line this way, makes me look at value to Minnesota. Seattle was favorite like that against teams like SF, CLE and BAL. I am not advocating Under. The players will be able to make plays, but passing will be hindered. The NFL has also changed many of the rules for offenses since many of the coldest games were played. Minnesota is not getting enough credit and is not as far off as the line is suggesting. Value home under dogs and Minnesota Vikings.
TAKE: Minnesota +6
