Pointwise College write-ups
Sorry, I don't have a downloadable copy of the Newsletter...
ALABAMA over Tennessee RATING: 1
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia RATING: 1
TULSA over Central Florida RATING: 2
TCU over Wyoming RATING: 3
MISSOURI over Colorado RATING: 3
OREGON over Arizona State RATING: 4
NORTHWESTERN over Indiana RATING: 5
VANDERBILT over Duke RATING: 5
WEST VIRGINIA 17 - Auburn 15 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not the explosive meeting
that TV expected. Tigers 0-6 ATS LA, with last 5 decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 SU.
Just 1 TD & 56 RYs vs Arkansas' paper "D", but rank #10 in scoring "D". WVa:
only 17 ppg last 5, & ranks #78 in total "O". Potential, but we don't get near it.
AIR FORCE 31 - New Mexico 30 - (8:00 - CBSC)) -- Home series, & Falcs on
11-3 ATS run, while piling up 747 RYs last 2 wks. But they've allowed 30 & 33
pts in their last 2 HGs, & Lobos are also cranking it up as well: 291 RYpg last 3
outings, & in off 70-7 pasting of SDSt. Visitor is 30-18 ATS in NewMex games.
FRIDAY
Boise State 24 - SAN JOSE STATE 20 - (9:00 - ESPN2) -- Hard to fathom the
Broncos picking off 5 Hawaii passes, & Moore clicking on 25-of-33, yet only a 20
pt win. Spartans always play their best at home: amazing +187½ pts ATS hosts
since '06, covering by 19 & 10 pts TY. Can't run, but neither can their opponents.
SATURDAY
ARMY 34 - Louisiana Tech 27 - (1:00 - ESPNC) -- A 364-15 RY edge for Tech
LW, as latest to take advantage of hapless Idaho. LT lost its last 4 RGs by a
combined 160-34 score, & with the Cadets rushing for 280, 291, 341, & 320
yds in their last 4 gms (Mooney: 588 RYs last 3), could be more of the same.
MARYLAND 26 - North Carolina State 24 - (3:30) -- Terps: from a 31-0 loss, to
a 26-0 win. The dog is now +125½ pts ATS in MD games TY, & 26-14 ATS in
Terps' last 40 games. NCSt: from 30 RYpg in previous 2 outings, to 157 vs
FlaSt (led in 4th). Wilson: 5 TDs passes last 3. The puppy continues to yap.
MIAMI-FLA 20 - Wake Forest 17 - (12:00) -- Improbable 10 ppg for the Deacons
in their last 4 games, with Skinner at a mere 7/4. Wake can't run (64 RYpg 4 of
last 5), but is 14-4 SU of late. 'Canes' QB move of Harris for Marve resulted in
4 passing & 1 rushing TD, so a huge success. Bucks visiting trend in UM tilts.
Northwestern 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00) -- Solid bounceback for 'Cats, off their
1st loss, with rout of Purdue (Bacher: 3 TDs). Have 14 takeaways in last 3
wins. Indy playing out the string. Five straight losses by an average score of
40-15, while allowing 224, 236, 227, & 292 in their last 4. Chalk series again.
Minnesota 27 - PURDUE 17 - (12:00) -- Amazing turnaround for rested Gophs,
who sand at 6-1, following LY's 1-11 suffering. Note holding Illinois' 19th-rated
run "O" to just 88 yds, as well as covering their last 4 lined RGs by 64½ pts. Iffy
Boiler rushing "O": 168 RYs from Sheets in loss to NW, but try 3 Painter INTs.
Boston College 22 - NORTH CAROLINA 20 - (12:00) -- Tight games the rule in
Tar games, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 4, 5, 3 (OT) pts. Stand at 5-2, behind
solid rush "D", with the dog a 17-5 ATS play in Heel games. Ditto BC, with the
pup 8-2-1 ATS in ACC games. Took VTech, with just 82 RYs, & 3 Crane INTs.
Cincinnati 23 - CONNECTICUT 16 - (12:00) -- Four missed FGs proved demise
of UConn in 12-10 loss to Rutgers. Just 11 ppg for Huskies in last 2 outings,
despite Brown standing at 1,274 RYs. Rested 'Cats have held all foes (except
Okla) to 74 RYpg, & QB Anderson is in off 21-of-29 effort. Dominated yr ago.
Illinois 30 - WISCONSIN 24 - (12:00) -- Badgers now 0-4 in Big10 for 1st time
since '96, with 13 TOs in those 4 setbacks. And how about not reaching 180
RYs in any of their last 4 games? As figured, Illini romped over Indy, & are at
538 ypg in their last 3 outings. Finely balanced behind Juice, Ford, etc. Illinois.
PITTSBURGH 17 - Rutgers 16 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Pitt, with McCoy
at 149, 142, & 156 RYs last 3 wks. Nearly 500 yds for Panthers vs Navy, but
dog is 19-4 ATS in Pitt games. Knights last 3 games: just 17, 10, 12 pts, but 3
covers. Minus 116½ pts ATS in 14 of last 15 regular season gms. Pitt, barely.
IOWA STATE 31 - Texas A&M 26 - (7:00) -- Nice one to avoid. Cycs a 73-17 pt
deficit last 2 wks, allowing 56 FDs, following a pair of excruciating setbacks. At
only 89 RYpg 4 of last 5. But Ags have dropped 3 straight, as well as -43½ pts
ATS last 5. Can't run (0.9 ypr LW), & in off allowing 33 FDs & 561 yds. Pass.
FLORIDA 41 - Kentucky 13 - (12:30) -- Gators in LSU/GA sandwich, but they've
been awesome since upset loss to OleMiss, with a 89-28 pt edge, including
that 51-21 bludgeoning of Lsu (265-80 RY edge). Two 'Cat TDs in final 4:15 to
take Arkansas, behind 3 Hartline TDs, and rank #3 in scoring "D". Forget it.
Mississippi 33 - ARKANSAS 20 - (7:00) -- Hogs hardly comforted with home
field, as they've been outscored 87-21 in their 2 SEC hosters TY. In off blowing
20-7 lead in final 4:15, altho Smith has motored for 358 RYs last 2 wks. Rebs
nearly came all the way back from 27-3 halftime deficit vs 'Bama. Chalk series.
BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (12:00) -- Rested Cards 7-0 first time
since '65. 6-0 ATS by 64½ pts, but by just 1 & 5 pts at home. EM allowing 39
ppg last 10 , as well as >230 RYs in 6 of last 7. Decent "O", but only one cover.
BYU 51 - Unlv 17 - (2:00) -- Just like that, 16-game Coog run is over. A 240-23
RY deficit at Tcu, with Hall sacked 7 times. But he is still at 21/5, & remember,
BYU won its last 3 HGs by a combined score of 124-3. Vegas can't stop the
run, allowing 1,006 last 3 games, & at 40 ppg "D" in its 4 losses. Bounceback!
VANDERBILT 27 - Duke 7 - (3:00) -- 'Dores now at +67½ pts ATS TY, holding 5
of last 7 foes below 18 pts. Stayed with MissSt & Ga in only losses, despite
397-159 RY deficit. Finally some rushing "O" for Imps, but still just 85 RYpg
last 4. Note 42-14 pt deficit to wind up vs Miami. Vandy becomes bowl eligible.
TULANE 38 - Rice 36 - (3:00) -- Check Owls' Clement with 13 TD passes last 3
games, including six vs SoMiss (22/5). Greenie RB Anderson: 852 yds last 3
(255 vs Utep), but in off losing on a 68-yd pass, & lost last HG by 51 pts ATS.
Fresno State 45 - UTAH STATE 34 - (3:00) -- Two teams in search of a defense.
FSt hasn't covered since its opener vs Rutgers, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 1,
5, 3 pts SU. No rushing "D": 215 RYs by Idaho. Similar lot for Ags, who've
ceded 46.4 ppg in 5 of last 6 games. Host has covered last 4 Ag tilts by 43 pts.
NAVY 40 - Smu 27 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Ponies allowing >500 ypg. Worst "D" in
land, & 2nd worst rushing "O", but are just a pt away from 4 straight covers.
QB Mitchell: 8 TD passes last 2 wks. Middies couldn't stay with Pitt (248-yd
deficit), & rank 86th in total "D". Always super, overland, but are hurting at QB.
Alabama 34 - TENNESSEE 13 - (3:30) -- Tide now 7-0 (first time ever for Saban).
Nearly blew comfy lead vs OleMiss (just 107 RYs), but have played their best
away (3-0 ATS by 72½ pts). Vols in off 34-3 win, despite just 16 FDs & 275
yds (2 TDs on INT returns). Were at 11 ppg previous 4, & rank 104 in total "D".
Oregon 31 - ARIZONA STATE 17 - (10:00) -- Rested Ducks at 43 ppg 18 of last
20 outings. No Roper last game, & are minus 31½ pts ATS last 2 tilts. But own
Devils, overland (Wise Points), & are super off a bye. Four straight losses for
ASU, including 4, 71, & 75 RYs in last 3 efforts. Carpenter? Just 8/5 thus far.
CALIFORNIA 27 - Ucla 22 - (3:30) -- Never-say-die Bruins rank 114th in run "O":
323-63 & 250-86 RY deficits last 2 (sacked 7 times by Stanford), but have
covered last 4. Cal not to be trusted. Check 11 takeaways in their 4 wins, but
just 104 RYpg last 4 tilts, despite 110 yds from Best LW. QB a huge question.
MIAMI-OHIO 31 - Kent State 27 - (3:30) -- Let's see. Flashes on 0-12-1 spread
slide, but have run for 627 yds last 3, missing spot by 1, 0, & 6 pts. Belton a
spark at QB for MU (218 RYs in upset of BG), but dog 15-5 ATS in 'Hawk tilts.
GEORGIA TECH 38 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Overland exploits of Cavs ended at
2 (>100 yd deficit in LW's OT comeback win). So 3 straight wins, but all at
home. Now take to road, where they have a 76-13 pt deficit. Tech: 4 straight
wins, 5 straight covers, & a 1,309-513 RY edge in lined games. Home series.
TEXAS 47 - Oklahoma State 34 - (8:30) -- Letdown? Hardly. McCoy: 29-of-32
vs Mizzou. Now at 19/3 & 81%! And he was superb last 2 vs OklaSt. 'Boys
are off to best start (7-0) in 60 years, & like the Steers, are also perfect vs the
pts. Don't forget Robinson with 430 PYs vs Texas LY. Bucking either is futile.
Georgia 26 - LSU 17 - (3:30) -- Nice bounceback for Bengals LW, holding SoCar
to just 4 2nd half FDs in 24-17 comeback win. Came from 80 RYs to 164. But
still minus 33 pts ATS last 3 games. 'Dawgs in dominant stat win over Vandy
(Moreno: 172 RYs), but 2 more Stafford INTs. "D": <18 pts 9-of-10 lined tilts.
Oklahoma 48 - KANSAS STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Okies at 47.5 ppg in their last 7
lined wins, so why not again? Bradford (26/5) in off school-record 468 PYs, so
try 674 yds vs that Kansas "D". 'Cat QB Freeman at 12/2 TY, & has 5 rushing
TDs last 2 wks, but can't ignore KSt's 112th ranked "D". Juggernaut rolls on.
Michigan State 30 - MICHIGAN 20 - (3:30) -- Embarrassing Wolve season just
continues. Were outscored 39-0 to wind up PennSt loss. Rank 108th in total
"O", altho Minor a fine 117 RYs vs Nits. Spartans had won 6 straight before 5
TO loss to OhioSt. Just 67 yds for Ringer, but still 963 last 6. Mild MichSt call.
Virginia Tech 20 - FLORIDA STATE 19 - (3:30) -- Five takeaways for Hokies,
including a couple of TDs on INT returns, yet a 28-23 loss to BC. But only Ga
Tech on 'em, so may be able to control Ponder & Co of the 'Noles. The dog &
visitor is 6-1 ATS in VT games, while the pup is 21-10 ATS in Sem tilts. Upset.
Bowling Green 24 - NO ILLINOIS 23 - (4:00) -- Visitor now 7-0 ATS in Falcon
games by 125½ pts! NIU has allowed only 2 "O" TDs in last 21 quarters (held
last 5 foes to 7 ppg), & QB is Harnish back. But we string along with line trend.
New Mexico State 38 - IDAHO 24 - (5:00) -- Back to normal for Vandals with
364-15 RY deficit at LaTech, after 215 RYs in last HG. Allowing 49 ppg in lined
gms TY. But NMSt "D": 39 ppg since LY, & is 105th in rushing. We stay away.
TCU 58 - Wyoming 7 - (6:00) -- What a team? Frogs have a 73-14 pt edge at
home since loss to Oklahoma (+32½ ATS), with a 615 RY edge! Balanced &
well remember LY's heartbreaking loss to 'Boys. WY outscored 68-0 in its last
2 RGs, & is on an 0-14 spread slide. Try a 153-23 pt deficit in its last 4 games.
Central Michigan 40 - TOLEDO 14 - (12:00) -- Brunner for LeFevour (ankle) for
Chips: 346 PYs in 38-28 win over WM (12-pt cover). CM now +123½ pts ATS
in last 15 MAC tilts. Rockets in epic tailspin, losing last 2 MAC games, 69-7.
South Florida 31 - LOUISVILLE 17 - (3:30) -- Series host has been the play
(Wise Points), but we buck it. Check Bulls holding 5-of-7 foes to just 10 FDpg.
Balanced behind Grothe leadership. Cards came back from 14-0 deficit LW,
moving to 4-2. Decent run "O" & "D", but Bulls covered their last RG by 21½.
NEBRASKA 33 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Finally some overland production for Neb,
in 35-7 wipeout of IowaSt, coming from 137 RYpg to 220. And note Ganz with
677 PYs last 2 wks. Improved Bears in off 250-yd deficit at OkieSt, & won't
stay with Huskers, altho they are +42 pts ATS in their last 5 games. Near spot.
Texas Tech 45 - KANSAS 41 - (12:00) -- Raiders stand at 7-0, but now it starts.
Harrell (23/5): 450 PYs vs A&M, & check >100 RYs in every game. But check
allowing 28 ppg in last 3 tilts. KU got the cover vs Okla, despite being stung for
36 FDs & 674 yds. Reesing at 17/5 & 70%, but Jays just 88th in rushing "O".
MISSOURI 57 - Colorado 20 - (6:30) -- Quite a comedown for Tigers, who have
tumbled from 3rd to 16th in the polls in just 2 wks. Unbelievable 390-94 RY
deficit in losses to OklaSt & Texas. But still at 41 ppg last 21, & destroyed the
Buffs LY (Wise Points). CU a mere 16 ppg in last 5 tilts. Lambs to slaughter.
Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Miracle cover for Lions LW,
with 80-yd pass/run in final 2:05. Now at 1,965 RYs & 1,985 PYs in 8-0 start
(363-94 pt edge). Royster LW: 174 RYs. Bucks in off first truly impressive
showing of year, but still just 18 FDs & 332 yds. Nothing left on field in this one.
So Mississippi 32 - MEMPHIS 24 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Tigers represented our only
rated college loss LW, losing top 2 QBs in game's first 11 minutes. Remember,
Hall had 6 TD throws in previous 2 games. Four straight losses for Eagles,
despite Davis throwing for 461 yds & 4 TDs vs Rice. Defense is still an issue.
Notre Dame 34 - WASHINGTON 19 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Decent showing for Wash,
in loss to OregSt. A mere 44-yd deficit, but killed by 3 Fouch INTs. Now stand
at 0-6, & rank 118th on "D". Irish are rested, & Clausen has burned 'em up of
late: 1,005 PYs (8/2) in last 3 games. Note just 19 ppg "D" in ND's last 7 tilts.
Colorado State 27 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17 - (9:30) -- Extremely difficult to back
either team, as Rams have lost their only 2 RGs to date, by a combined 101-23
score, & have been outrushed 478-121 the past 2 wks. But Aztecs in similar
rut, with an 820-101 RY deficit last 2 games, & in off 70-7 pasting. Steer clear.
So California 34 - ARIZONA 24 - (10:15 - FSN) -- Latest Troy accomplishment:
Laying 42 pts, & covering by 27. Amazing 28-4 FD & 625-116 yd edges, with
5 TD passes from Sanchez. But 'Cats have a 201-57 pt edge at home, & in off
turning 24-14 deficit, into a 42-27 win over Cal. Tuitama keeps this near spot.
Nevada 31 - HAWAII 21 - (12:05) -- Check Reno with a 1,305-253 RY edge in its
last 4 games, behind Kaepernick's leadership. Check also 49 & 49 pts in last
2 RGs. 'Bows improved, but killed by Funaki's inconsistency (5 INTs vs Boise).
SUNDAY
TULSA 61 - Central Florida 20 - (8:00) -- Revenge! 'Canes something else. Try
791 yds in rout of Utep. Johnson (31/8): 434 yds & 5 TDs, & check 38.8 yds per
catch for Marion LW. Knights gained just 78 yds at Miami & 280 on SMU's "D".
TUESDAY
Buffalo 27 - OHIO U 23 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Could be first-ever RF role for Bulls,
who are in off a pair of OT games. Have been outrushed 528-107 in 2 of last 3
games, but Willy is a dependable 14/4. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in BU games of late.
Houston 31 - MARSHALL 21 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Coogs on 3-game run, with
1,705 yds, but needed 2 TDs in final 2:34 to take SMU's sieve. Keenum: 23/5.
Herd just the opposite: 3 straight losses, with a 737-211 RY deficit. And again.
ADDED GAMES
MISSISSIPPI ST 21 - Mid Tenn St 17
LA-MONROE 27 - Fla Atlantic 24
Troy 38 - NORTH TEXAS 10
Sorry, I don't have a downloadable copy of the Newsletter...
ALABAMA over Tennessee RATING: 1
GEORGIA TECH over Virginia RATING: 1
TULSA over Central Florida RATING: 2
TCU over Wyoming RATING: 3
MISSOURI over Colorado RATING: 3
OREGON over Arizona State RATING: 4
NORTHWESTERN over Indiana RATING: 5
VANDERBILT over Duke RATING: 5
WEST VIRGINIA 17 - Auburn 15 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not the explosive meeting
that TV expected. Tigers 0-6 ATS LA, with last 5 decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 SU.
Just 1 TD & 56 RYs vs Arkansas' paper "D", but rank #10 in scoring "D". WVa:
only 17 ppg last 5, & ranks #78 in total "O". Potential, but we don't get near it.
AIR FORCE 31 - New Mexico 30 - (8:00 - CBSC)) -- Home series, & Falcs on
11-3 ATS run, while piling up 747 RYs last 2 wks. But they've allowed 30 & 33
pts in their last 2 HGs, & Lobos are also cranking it up as well: 291 RYpg last 3
outings, & in off 70-7 pasting of SDSt. Visitor is 30-18 ATS in NewMex games.
FRIDAY
Boise State 24 - SAN JOSE STATE 20 - (9:00 - ESPN2) -- Hard to fathom the
Broncos picking off 5 Hawaii passes, & Moore clicking on 25-of-33, yet only a 20
pt win. Spartans always play their best at home: amazing +187½ pts ATS hosts
since '06, covering by 19 & 10 pts TY. Can't run, but neither can their opponents.
SATURDAY
ARMY 34 - Louisiana Tech 27 - (1:00 - ESPNC) -- A 364-15 RY edge for Tech
LW, as latest to take advantage of hapless Idaho. LT lost its last 4 RGs by a
combined 160-34 score, & with the Cadets rushing for 280, 291, 341, & 320
yds in their last 4 gms (Mooney: 588 RYs last 3), could be more of the same.
MARYLAND 26 - North Carolina State 24 - (3:30) -- Terps: from a 31-0 loss, to
a 26-0 win. The dog is now +125½ pts ATS in MD games TY, & 26-14 ATS in
Terps' last 40 games. NCSt: from 30 RYpg in previous 2 outings, to 157 vs
FlaSt (led in 4th). Wilson: 5 TDs passes last 3. The puppy continues to yap.
MIAMI-FLA 20 - Wake Forest 17 - (12:00) -- Improbable 10 ppg for the Deacons
in their last 4 games, with Skinner at a mere 7/4. Wake can't run (64 RYpg 4 of
last 5), but is 14-4 SU of late. 'Canes' QB move of Harris for Marve resulted in
4 passing & 1 rushing TD, so a huge success. Bucks visiting trend in UM tilts.
Northwestern 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00) -- Solid bounceback for 'Cats, off their
1st loss, with rout of Purdue (Bacher: 3 TDs). Have 14 takeaways in last 3
wins. Indy playing out the string. Five straight losses by an average score of
40-15, while allowing 224, 236, 227, & 292 in their last 4. Chalk series again.
Minnesota 27 - PURDUE 17 - (12:00) -- Amazing turnaround for rested Gophs,
who sand at 6-1, following LY's 1-11 suffering. Note holding Illinois' 19th-rated
run "O" to just 88 yds, as well as covering their last 4 lined RGs by 64½ pts. Iffy
Boiler rushing "O": 168 RYs from Sheets in loss to NW, but try 3 Painter INTs.
Boston College 22 - NORTH CAROLINA 20 - (12:00) -- Tight games the rule in
Tar games, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 4, 5, 3 (OT) pts. Stand at 5-2, behind
solid rush "D", with the dog a 17-5 ATS play in Heel games. Ditto BC, with the
pup 8-2-1 ATS in ACC games. Took VTech, with just 82 RYs, & 3 Crane INTs.
Cincinnati 23 - CONNECTICUT 16 - (12:00) -- Four missed FGs proved demise
of UConn in 12-10 loss to Rutgers. Just 11 ppg for Huskies in last 2 outings,
despite Brown standing at 1,274 RYs. Rested 'Cats have held all foes (except
Okla) to 74 RYpg, & QB Anderson is in off 21-of-29 effort. Dominated yr ago.
Illinois 30 - WISCONSIN 24 - (12:00) -- Badgers now 0-4 in Big10 for 1st time
since '96, with 13 TOs in those 4 setbacks. And how about not reaching 180
RYs in any of their last 4 games? As figured, Illini romped over Indy, & are at
538 ypg in their last 3 outings. Finely balanced behind Juice, Ford, etc. Illinois.
PITTSBURGH 17 - Rutgers 16 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Pitt, with McCoy
at 149, 142, & 156 RYs last 3 wks. Nearly 500 yds for Panthers vs Navy, but
dog is 19-4 ATS in Pitt games. Knights last 3 games: just 17, 10, 12 pts, but 3
covers. Minus 116½ pts ATS in 14 of last 15 regular season gms. Pitt, barely.
IOWA STATE 31 - Texas A&M 26 - (7:00) -- Nice one to avoid. Cycs a 73-17 pt
deficit last 2 wks, allowing 56 FDs, following a pair of excruciating setbacks. At
only 89 RYpg 4 of last 5. But Ags have dropped 3 straight, as well as -43½ pts
ATS last 5. Can't run (0.9 ypr LW), & in off allowing 33 FDs & 561 yds. Pass.
FLORIDA 41 - Kentucky 13 - (12:30) -- Gators in LSU/GA sandwich, but they've
been awesome since upset loss to OleMiss, with a 89-28 pt edge, including
that 51-21 bludgeoning of Lsu (265-80 RY edge). Two 'Cat TDs in final 4:15 to
take Arkansas, behind 3 Hartline TDs, and rank #3 in scoring "D". Forget it.
Mississippi 33 - ARKANSAS 20 - (7:00) -- Hogs hardly comforted with home
field, as they've been outscored 87-21 in their 2 SEC hosters TY. In off blowing
20-7 lead in final 4:15, altho Smith has motored for 358 RYs last 2 wks. Rebs
nearly came all the way back from 27-3 halftime deficit vs 'Bama. Chalk series.
BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (12:00) -- Rested Cards 7-0 first time
since '65. 6-0 ATS by 64½ pts, but by just 1 & 5 pts at home. EM allowing 39
ppg last 10 , as well as >230 RYs in 6 of last 7. Decent "O", but only one cover.
BYU 51 - Unlv 17 - (2:00) -- Just like that, 16-game Coog run is over. A 240-23
RY deficit at Tcu, with Hall sacked 7 times. But he is still at 21/5, & remember,
BYU won its last 3 HGs by a combined score of 124-3. Vegas can't stop the
run, allowing 1,006 last 3 games, & at 40 ppg "D" in its 4 losses. Bounceback!
VANDERBILT 27 - Duke 7 - (3:00) -- 'Dores now at +67½ pts ATS TY, holding 5
of last 7 foes below 18 pts. Stayed with MissSt & Ga in only losses, despite
397-159 RY deficit. Finally some rushing "O" for Imps, but still just 85 RYpg
last 4. Note 42-14 pt deficit to wind up vs Miami. Vandy becomes bowl eligible.
TULANE 38 - Rice 36 - (3:00) -- Check Owls' Clement with 13 TD passes last 3
games, including six vs SoMiss (22/5). Greenie RB Anderson: 852 yds last 3
(255 vs Utep), but in off losing on a 68-yd pass, & lost last HG by 51 pts ATS.
Fresno State 45 - UTAH STATE 34 - (3:00) -- Two teams in search of a defense.
FSt hasn't covered since its opener vs Rutgers, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 1,
5, 3 pts SU. No rushing "D": 215 RYs by Idaho. Similar lot for Ags, who've
ceded 46.4 ppg in 5 of last 6 games. Host has covered last 4 Ag tilts by 43 pts.
NAVY 40 - Smu 27 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Ponies allowing >500 ypg. Worst "D" in
land, & 2nd worst rushing "O", but are just a pt away from 4 straight covers.
QB Mitchell: 8 TD passes last 2 wks. Middies couldn't stay with Pitt (248-yd
deficit), & rank 86th in total "D". Always super, overland, but are hurting at QB.
Alabama 34 - TENNESSEE 13 - (3:30) -- Tide now 7-0 (first time ever for Saban).
Nearly blew comfy lead vs OleMiss (just 107 RYs), but have played their best
away (3-0 ATS by 72½ pts). Vols in off 34-3 win, despite just 16 FDs & 275
yds (2 TDs on INT returns). Were at 11 ppg previous 4, & rank 104 in total "D".
Oregon 31 - ARIZONA STATE 17 - (10:00) -- Rested Ducks at 43 ppg 18 of last
20 outings. No Roper last game, & are minus 31½ pts ATS last 2 tilts. But own
Devils, overland (Wise Points), & are super off a bye. Four straight losses for
ASU, including 4, 71, & 75 RYs in last 3 efforts. Carpenter? Just 8/5 thus far.
CALIFORNIA 27 - Ucla 22 - (3:30) -- Never-say-die Bruins rank 114th in run "O":
323-63 & 250-86 RY deficits last 2 (sacked 7 times by Stanford), but have
covered last 4. Cal not to be trusted. Check 11 takeaways in their 4 wins, but
just 104 RYpg last 4 tilts, despite 110 yds from Best LW. QB a huge question.
MIAMI-OHIO 31 - Kent State 27 - (3:30) -- Let's see. Flashes on 0-12-1 spread
slide, but have run for 627 yds last 3, missing spot by 1, 0, & 6 pts. Belton a
spark at QB for MU (218 RYs in upset of BG), but dog 15-5 ATS in 'Hawk tilts.
GEORGIA TECH 38 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Overland exploits of Cavs ended at
2 (>100 yd deficit in LW's OT comeback win). So 3 straight wins, but all at
home. Now take to road, where they have a 76-13 pt deficit. Tech: 4 straight
wins, 5 straight covers, & a 1,309-513 RY edge in lined games. Home series.
TEXAS 47 - Oklahoma State 34 - (8:30) -- Letdown? Hardly. McCoy: 29-of-32
vs Mizzou. Now at 19/3 & 81%! And he was superb last 2 vs OklaSt. 'Boys
are off to best start (7-0) in 60 years, & like the Steers, are also perfect vs the
pts. Don't forget Robinson with 430 PYs vs Texas LY. Bucking either is futile.
Georgia 26 - LSU 17 - (3:30) -- Nice bounceback for Bengals LW, holding SoCar
to just 4 2nd half FDs in 24-17 comeback win. Came from 80 RYs to 164. But
still minus 33 pts ATS last 3 games. 'Dawgs in dominant stat win over Vandy
(Moreno: 172 RYs), but 2 more Stafford INTs. "D": <18 pts 9-of-10 lined tilts.
Oklahoma 48 - KANSAS STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Okies at 47.5 ppg in their last 7
lined wins, so why not again? Bradford (26/5) in off school-record 468 PYs, so
try 674 yds vs that Kansas "D". 'Cat QB Freeman at 12/2 TY, & has 5 rushing
TDs last 2 wks, but can't ignore KSt's 112th ranked "D". Juggernaut rolls on.
Michigan State 30 - MICHIGAN 20 - (3:30) -- Embarrassing Wolve season just
continues. Were outscored 39-0 to wind up PennSt loss. Rank 108th in total
"O", altho Minor a fine 117 RYs vs Nits. Spartans had won 6 straight before 5
TO loss to OhioSt. Just 67 yds for Ringer, but still 963 last 6. Mild MichSt call.
Virginia Tech 20 - FLORIDA STATE 19 - (3:30) -- Five takeaways for Hokies,
including a couple of TDs on INT returns, yet a 28-23 loss to BC. But only Ga
Tech on 'em, so may be able to control Ponder & Co of the 'Noles. The dog &
visitor is 6-1 ATS in VT games, while the pup is 21-10 ATS in Sem tilts. Upset.
Bowling Green 24 - NO ILLINOIS 23 - (4:00) -- Visitor now 7-0 ATS in Falcon
games by 125½ pts! NIU has allowed only 2 "O" TDs in last 21 quarters (held
last 5 foes to 7 ppg), & QB is Harnish back. But we string along with line trend.
New Mexico State 38 - IDAHO 24 - (5:00) -- Back to normal for Vandals with
364-15 RY deficit at LaTech, after 215 RYs in last HG. Allowing 49 ppg in lined
gms TY. But NMSt "D": 39 ppg since LY, & is 105th in rushing. We stay away.
TCU 58 - Wyoming 7 - (6:00) -- What a team? Frogs have a 73-14 pt edge at
home since loss to Oklahoma (+32½ ATS), with a 615 RY edge! Balanced &
well remember LY's heartbreaking loss to 'Boys. WY outscored 68-0 in its last
2 RGs, & is on an 0-14 spread slide. Try a 153-23 pt deficit in its last 4 games.
Central Michigan 40 - TOLEDO 14 - (12:00) -- Brunner for LeFevour (ankle) for
Chips: 346 PYs in 38-28 win over WM (12-pt cover). CM now +123½ pts ATS
in last 15 MAC tilts. Rockets in epic tailspin, losing last 2 MAC games, 69-7.
South Florida 31 - LOUISVILLE 17 - (3:30) -- Series host has been the play
(Wise Points), but we buck it. Check Bulls holding 5-of-7 foes to just 10 FDpg.
Balanced behind Grothe leadership. Cards came back from 14-0 deficit LW,
moving to 4-2. Decent run "O" & "D", but Bulls covered their last RG by 21½.
NEBRASKA 33 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Finally some overland production for Neb,
in 35-7 wipeout of IowaSt, coming from 137 RYpg to 220. And note Ganz with
677 PYs last 2 wks. Improved Bears in off 250-yd deficit at OkieSt, & won't
stay with Huskers, altho they are +42 pts ATS in their last 5 games. Near spot.
Texas Tech 45 - KANSAS 41 - (12:00) -- Raiders stand at 7-0, but now it starts.
Harrell (23/5): 450 PYs vs A&M, & check >100 RYs in every game. But check
allowing 28 ppg in last 3 tilts. KU got the cover vs Okla, despite being stung for
36 FDs & 674 yds. Reesing at 17/5 & 70%, but Jays just 88th in rushing "O".
MISSOURI 57 - Colorado 20 - (6:30) -- Quite a comedown for Tigers, who have
tumbled from 3rd to 16th in the polls in just 2 wks. Unbelievable 390-94 RY
deficit in losses to OklaSt & Texas. But still at 41 ppg last 21, & destroyed the
Buffs LY (Wise Points). CU a mere 16 ppg in last 5 tilts. Lambs to slaughter.
Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Miracle cover for Lions LW,
with 80-yd pass/run in final 2:05. Now at 1,965 RYs & 1,985 PYs in 8-0 start
(363-94 pt edge). Royster LW: 174 RYs. Bucks in off first truly impressive
showing of year, but still just 18 FDs & 332 yds. Nothing left on field in this one.
So Mississippi 32 - MEMPHIS 24 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Tigers represented our only
rated college loss LW, losing top 2 QBs in game's first 11 minutes. Remember,
Hall had 6 TD throws in previous 2 games. Four straight losses for Eagles,
despite Davis throwing for 461 yds & 4 TDs vs Rice. Defense is still an issue.
Notre Dame 34 - WASHINGTON 19 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Decent showing for Wash,
in loss to OregSt. A mere 44-yd deficit, but killed by 3 Fouch INTs. Now stand
at 0-6, & rank 118th on "D". Irish are rested, & Clausen has burned 'em up of
late: 1,005 PYs (8/2) in last 3 games. Note just 19 ppg "D" in ND's last 7 tilts.
Colorado State 27 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17 - (9:30) -- Extremely difficult to back
either team, as Rams have lost their only 2 RGs to date, by a combined 101-23
score, & have been outrushed 478-121 the past 2 wks. But Aztecs in similar
rut, with an 820-101 RY deficit last 2 games, & in off 70-7 pasting. Steer clear.
So California 34 - ARIZONA 24 - (10:15 - FSN) -- Latest Troy accomplishment:
Laying 42 pts, & covering by 27. Amazing 28-4 FD & 625-116 yd edges, with
5 TD passes from Sanchez. But 'Cats have a 201-57 pt edge at home, & in off
turning 24-14 deficit, into a 42-27 win over Cal. Tuitama keeps this near spot.
Nevada 31 - HAWAII 21 - (12:05) -- Check Reno with a 1,305-253 RY edge in its
last 4 games, behind Kaepernick's leadership. Check also 49 & 49 pts in last
2 RGs. 'Bows improved, but killed by Funaki's inconsistency (5 INTs vs Boise).
SUNDAY
TULSA 61 - Central Florida 20 - (8:00) -- Revenge! 'Canes something else. Try
791 yds in rout of Utep. Johnson (31/8): 434 yds & 5 TDs, & check 38.8 yds per
catch for Marion LW. Knights gained just 78 yds at Miami & 280 on SMU's "D".
TUESDAY
Buffalo 27 - OHIO U 23 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Could be first-ever RF role for Bulls,
who are in off a pair of OT games. Have been outrushed 528-107 in 2 of last 3
games, but Willy is a dependable 14/4. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in BU games of late.
Houston 31 - MARSHALL 21 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Coogs on 3-game run, with
1,705 yds, but needed 2 TDs in final 2:34 to take SMU's sieve. Keenum: 23/5.
Herd just the opposite: 3 straight losses, with a 737-211 RY deficit. And again.
ADDED GAMES
MISSISSIPPI ST 21 - Mid Tenn St 17
LA-MONROE 27 - Fla Atlantic 24
Troy 38 - NORTH TEXAS 10
Pointwise NFL Write-ups
WASHINGTON over Detroit RATING: 3
PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta RATING: 4
MIAMI over Buffalo RATING: 4
NEW YORK JETS over Kansas City RATING: 5
NEW ENGLAND over St Louis RATING: 5
BALTIMORE 23 - Oakland 10 - (1:00) -- Ravens' NFL best "D" put the clamps
on streaking Dolphins, allowing Miami only 71 RYs, & in the process stopping
their own 3-game slide. And how about >100 RYs for McGahee. Baltimore
has held foes to 10, 10, & 13 pts at home so far, & with the Raiders coming in
with the 23rd ranked "O", have to see more of the same. Oakland gave Cable
his 1st win on a 57-yd Janikowski OT FG, despite a 242 RY "D", so figure back
to the drawing board vs this squad. Baltimore is 7-1 ATS hosting Oakland,
while the Raiders are 17-27 ATS on the road of late (lost their last RG, 34-3).
San Diego 27 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (1:00) -- Chargers couldn't maintain their
psyche edge, displayed in previous week's rout of the Pats, succumbing to the
Bills, with only 263 yds, altho Rivers was a decent 2/1 & now 16/5 for the year.
But still on a 12-4 ATS run, & chance to take on the Saints, possibly without
Bush, who went out vs Carolina (knee). Check Saints' 17-0 pt deficit after he
left. And Brees just 21-of-39, after a 26-of-30 showing vs the Raiders. Saints
have allowed at least 24 pts in 7 of their last 10 games, & are 1-11 ATS home
vs a foe off a RG. SD is 14-4 ATS off a loss, & 13-4 ATS as a RF of <4 pts.
NEW YORK JETS 34 - Kansas City 13 - (1:00) -- Futility seems the only word
to properly describe the Chiefs, who've dropped their last 2 games by near
identical 34-0 & 34-10 scores (only pts LW coming in final 4 minutes). Own
worst run "D" in the NFL, & certainly proved that point by allowing 332 RYs
(8.3 ypr) in loss to the Titans. Now on 1-14 SU run. Jets in off OT loss to the
Raiders, despite 242 RYs, including 159 from Jones (7.3 ypr). NY has held 6
of its last 8 foes to 14 ppg, & has averaged 41 ppg in its last 2 HGs. KC 4-14
ATS vs the AFC East, as well as 5-10 ATS away vs a .500 or better opponent.
MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Just 71 RYs for the Dolphins, in their loss to the
Ravens, after 160 RYpg in previous 3 outings. Simply never in that one, altho
Pennington continues his brilliant play, which has him at 82-of-109 the last 4
weeks (75%). Bills' bye week enabled Edwards to return, & a solid 25-of-30
for 261 yds vs the Chargers was the result. Just a single setback for Buffalo,
but that came in their last RG by the tune of 41-17. As a matter of fact, the Bills
average just 13.7 ppg in their last dozen RGs. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS vs Miami,
but it must be noted that the Dolphs had a record of 20-44 during that period.
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 17 - (1:00) -- No Romo for the 'Boys in their lopsided
loss to the Rams, with Johnson no help (3 INTs). But neither play "D", so note
that Dallas allowed TD drives on StLouis' first 3 possessions, for a quick 21-7
hole. Thus the Cowboys have dropped 3-of-4, after appearing as the team to
beat with their impressive 3-0 start. And Dallas is on a money-burning 2-10
spread run, as well, including 0-5 ATS at home, by 48 pts. The Bucs allowed
covering TD in dying minutes vs Seattle, despite 22-7 FD, 402-176 yd edges.
Last 4 Tampa RGs have been decided by 2, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU. That continues.
PHILADELPHIA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Rematch of '04 NFC Championship
game. Neither team played LW, which has to be a help to the Eagles, as a
healthy Westbrook is essential. Philly finally had a bit of a breather in its last
game, a 40-26 win over SanFran, after 4 straight wars vs Dallas, Pittsburgh,
Chicago, & Washington. Solid shot at a repeat here, as the 4-2 Falcons have
allowed 24, 24, & 24 pts in their 3 RGs to date. Took the Bears on a 48-yd
Elam FG as time ran out, before their break, but doubt that they will have that
chance here. Eags are 16-10 ATS off a SU/ATS win, & won't let this get away.
NEW ENGLAND 27 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight wins for the Rams,
under Haslett, scoring TDs on their first 3 drives vs Dallas. Check Jackson's
160 RYs & 3 TDs in that one. But still 5-16 ATS since LY, allowing 33 ppg in
last 9 contests. Catching the Pats off their Monday Nighter vs the Broncos is
a plus, & the visitor is 6-1 ATS in NewEngland tilts, with Pats losing their last
HG by 37½ pts ATS. However, StLouis is 11-22 ATS away vs winning teams,
while the Patriots are an amazing 11-0 ATS vs the NFC West, & 38-15 ATS as
a non-division HF. Rematch of '01 Super Bowl goes to the Patriots once again.
CAROLINA 27 - Arizona 17 - (1:00) -- Well, the dog, which was 54-28 ATS in
Panther games, has taken it on the chin over the last 5 weeks, with the chalk
covering all 5. Carolina has opened it up at home of late, with a combined pt
edge of 88-16 in its last 3 HF setups. The Cards are in off their bye week, &
enjoy a 2-game lead in their division, with Warner the 2nd rated passer in the
NFL. He is now 12/5. Arizona is 12-6 ATS off a bye, but 9-23 ATS on the non
division road, as well as 1-10 ATS in Oct off a SU dog win. LY, the Panthers
took the measure of the Cards, 25-10, & that one was in Arizona. Call repeat.
Washington 31 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight covers for the winless
Lions, despite a 47-23 FD deficit, with 1 of their 2 TDs vs the Texans coming on
a 96-yd pass. Fact is that Detroit is on a 1-13 SU slide, while allowing 33.3 ppg
in its last 12 contests, & ranking 30th or worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns.
'Skins have held 16 foes to 20 pts or less since LY, & have covered their last 2
RGs by 13 & 12 pts. And check a 1,023-451 RY edge for the 'Skins, with
Portis at an NFL best 818 RYs (175 LW). Can't see the Lions, with their 32nd
ranked "D", doing much containing. Took 'em by 31 last year, & are improved.
JACKSONVILLE 20 - Cleveland 17 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the Jags
take the field, & that's with the dog, which has covered their last 8 contests.
And that includes 5 upsets in their 6 games to date. Went from 28-14 FD &
200 yd deficits, to 26-19 FD & 100 yd edges in their last 2 games, with Garrard
25-of-34 vs the Broncos. The Browns are averaging only 13.6 ppg in 8 of their
last 9 outings, but note allowing 19 pts or less in 9 of their last 10 games. But
they can crank it up at times, such as their upset of the Giants, with 320 PYs
from Anderson. J'Ville 0-8 ATS as a chalk of 6+ pts vs an opponent off a RG.
PITTSBURGH 23 - New York Giants 19 - (4:15) -- Plaxico Burress returns to
Pittsburgh. Well, maybe. Steelers tough team to get a handle on, as 3 of their
previous 4 games were decided by 4, 3, & 5 pts SU, before they put a 38-10
pasting on the hapless Bengals. Moore for the injured Parker: 120 RYs (6.0
ypr). Champ Giants just a safety away from 2 straight ATS setbacks, & check
a 707-646 yd deficit for NY in those contests vs 2-5 SanFran, & 2-4 Cleveland.
Check Giant RB Ward with 101 RYs on just 10 carries vs the Niners. Pitt is
17-7 ATS home off a win of 14+ pts, & 27-15 ATS home off a DD division win.
SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Seattle 20 - (4:15) -- First revenge setup of the season,
with the Seahawks seeking retribution for earlier 33-30 OT home loss to the
Niners. And it was legit, as SanFran held a 365-351 yd edge in that 9½ pt
cover. The Niners still not a defensive force, allowing >28 pts in 5 of their last
6 games, but the Seahawks on the road, without Hasselbeck, are lost. Check
deficits of 22-7 in FDs, 402-176 in yds, & 41:41-18:19 possession time, in loss
to the Bucs. But a cover, nonetheless, thanks to a 17-yd drive a KO return.
'Hawks had allowed 44, 42, 34, & 44 pts in their 4 RGs previous to that joke.
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 - (4:05) -- Well, the Texans did it to us again. No
less than 3 straight excruciating losses in the last 3 wks (1, 2, 2½ pt setbacks),
with latest vs Detroit, as a 28-10 lead in the 4th, deteriorated into a 28-21 win
(96-yd TD pass). So, a 52-29 FD edge for Houston the past 2 wks, but 0-2
ATS. This marks their 4th straight HG, thanks to schedule rearranging, & we
will string along with them again, as they average 30.5 ppg at home in their last
8 hosters. Cincy the pits. An 0-7 record (5th time in 18 yrs), with a 1,066-512
RY deficit, altho the dog is 12-4 ATS in Bengal games of late. Finally a cover.
MONDAY
TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Titans just keep on doing
it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1
ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC,
with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs, respectively. Colts still seeking an
overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a
pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing
less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than
that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately.
WASHINGTON over Detroit RATING: 3
PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta RATING: 4
MIAMI over Buffalo RATING: 4
NEW YORK JETS over Kansas City RATING: 5
NEW ENGLAND over St Louis RATING: 5
BALTIMORE 23 - Oakland 10 - (1:00) -- Ravens' NFL best "D" put the clamps
on streaking Dolphins, allowing Miami only 71 RYs, & in the process stopping
their own 3-game slide. And how about >100 RYs for McGahee. Baltimore
has held foes to 10, 10, & 13 pts at home so far, & with the Raiders coming in
with the 23rd ranked "O", have to see more of the same. Oakland gave Cable
his 1st win on a 57-yd Janikowski OT FG, despite a 242 RY "D", so figure back
to the drawing board vs this squad. Baltimore is 7-1 ATS hosting Oakland,
while the Raiders are 17-27 ATS on the road of late (lost their last RG, 34-3).
San Diego 27 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (1:00) -- Chargers couldn't maintain their
psyche edge, displayed in previous week's rout of the Pats, succumbing to the
Bills, with only 263 yds, altho Rivers was a decent 2/1 & now 16/5 for the year.
But still on a 12-4 ATS run, & chance to take on the Saints, possibly without
Bush, who went out vs Carolina (knee). Check Saints' 17-0 pt deficit after he
left. And Brees just 21-of-39, after a 26-of-30 showing vs the Raiders. Saints
have allowed at least 24 pts in 7 of their last 10 games, & are 1-11 ATS home
vs a foe off a RG. SD is 14-4 ATS off a loss, & 13-4 ATS as a RF of <4 pts.
NEW YORK JETS 34 - Kansas City 13 - (1:00) -- Futility seems the only word
to properly describe the Chiefs, who've dropped their last 2 games by near
identical 34-0 & 34-10 scores (only pts LW coming in final 4 minutes). Own
worst run "D" in the NFL, & certainly proved that point by allowing 332 RYs
(8.3 ypr) in loss to the Titans. Now on 1-14 SU run. Jets in off OT loss to the
Raiders, despite 242 RYs, including 159 from Jones (7.3 ypr). NY has held 6
of its last 8 foes to 14 ppg, & has averaged 41 ppg in its last 2 HGs. KC 4-14
ATS vs the AFC East, as well as 5-10 ATS away vs a .500 or better opponent.
MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Just 71 RYs for the Dolphins, in their loss to the
Ravens, after 160 RYpg in previous 3 outings. Simply never in that one, altho
Pennington continues his brilliant play, which has him at 82-of-109 the last 4
weeks (75%). Bills' bye week enabled Edwards to return, & a solid 25-of-30
for 261 yds vs the Chargers was the result. Just a single setback for Buffalo,
but that came in their last RG by the tune of 41-17. As a matter of fact, the Bills
average just 13.7 ppg in their last dozen RGs. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS vs Miami,
but it must be noted that the Dolphs had a record of 20-44 during that period.
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 17 - (1:00) -- No Romo for the 'Boys in their lopsided
loss to the Rams, with Johnson no help (3 INTs). But neither play "D", so note
that Dallas allowed TD drives on StLouis' first 3 possessions, for a quick 21-7
hole. Thus the Cowboys have dropped 3-of-4, after appearing as the team to
beat with their impressive 3-0 start. And Dallas is on a money-burning 2-10
spread run, as well, including 0-5 ATS at home, by 48 pts. The Bucs allowed
covering TD in dying minutes vs Seattle, despite 22-7 FD, 402-176 yd edges.
Last 4 Tampa RGs have been decided by 2, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU. That continues.
PHILADELPHIA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Rematch of '04 NFC Championship
game. Neither team played LW, which has to be a help to the Eagles, as a
healthy Westbrook is essential. Philly finally had a bit of a breather in its last
game, a 40-26 win over SanFran, after 4 straight wars vs Dallas, Pittsburgh,
Chicago, & Washington. Solid shot at a repeat here, as the 4-2 Falcons have
allowed 24, 24, & 24 pts in their 3 RGs to date. Took the Bears on a 48-yd
Elam FG as time ran out, before their break, but doubt that they will have that
chance here. Eags are 16-10 ATS off a SU/ATS win, & won't let this get away.
NEW ENGLAND 27 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight wins for the Rams,
under Haslett, scoring TDs on their first 3 drives vs Dallas. Check Jackson's
160 RYs & 3 TDs in that one. But still 5-16 ATS since LY, allowing 33 ppg in
last 9 contests. Catching the Pats off their Monday Nighter vs the Broncos is
a plus, & the visitor is 6-1 ATS in NewEngland tilts, with Pats losing their last
HG by 37½ pts ATS. However, StLouis is 11-22 ATS away vs winning teams,
while the Patriots are an amazing 11-0 ATS vs the NFC West, & 38-15 ATS as
a non-division HF. Rematch of '01 Super Bowl goes to the Patriots once again.
CAROLINA 27 - Arizona 17 - (1:00) -- Well, the dog, which was 54-28 ATS in
Panther games, has taken it on the chin over the last 5 weeks, with the chalk
covering all 5. Carolina has opened it up at home of late, with a combined pt
edge of 88-16 in its last 3 HF setups. The Cards are in off their bye week, &
enjoy a 2-game lead in their division, with Warner the 2nd rated passer in the
NFL. He is now 12/5. Arizona is 12-6 ATS off a bye, but 9-23 ATS on the non
division road, as well as 1-10 ATS in Oct off a SU dog win. LY, the Panthers
took the measure of the Cards, 25-10, & that one was in Arizona. Call repeat.
Washington 31 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight covers for the winless
Lions, despite a 47-23 FD deficit, with 1 of their 2 TDs vs the Texans coming on
a 96-yd pass. Fact is that Detroit is on a 1-13 SU slide, while allowing 33.3 ppg
in its last 12 contests, & ranking 30th or worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns.
'Skins have held 16 foes to 20 pts or less since LY, & have covered their last 2
RGs by 13 & 12 pts. And check a 1,023-451 RY edge for the 'Skins, with
Portis at an NFL best 818 RYs (175 LW). Can't see the Lions, with their 32nd
ranked "D", doing much containing. Took 'em by 31 last year, & are improved.
JACKSONVILLE 20 - Cleveland 17 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the Jags
take the field, & that's with the dog, which has covered their last 8 contests.
And that includes 5 upsets in their 6 games to date. Went from 28-14 FD &
200 yd deficits, to 26-19 FD & 100 yd edges in their last 2 games, with Garrard
25-of-34 vs the Broncos. The Browns are averaging only 13.6 ppg in 8 of their
last 9 outings, but note allowing 19 pts or less in 9 of their last 10 games. But
they can crank it up at times, such as their upset of the Giants, with 320 PYs
from Anderson. J'Ville 0-8 ATS as a chalk of 6+ pts vs an opponent off a RG.
PITTSBURGH 23 - New York Giants 19 - (4:15) -- Plaxico Burress returns to
Pittsburgh. Well, maybe. Steelers tough team to get a handle on, as 3 of their
previous 4 games were decided by 4, 3, & 5 pts SU, before they put a 38-10
pasting on the hapless Bengals. Moore for the injured Parker: 120 RYs (6.0
ypr). Champ Giants just a safety away from 2 straight ATS setbacks, & check
a 707-646 yd deficit for NY in those contests vs 2-5 SanFran, & 2-4 Cleveland.
Check Giant RB Ward with 101 RYs on just 10 carries vs the Niners. Pitt is
17-7 ATS home off a win of 14+ pts, & 27-15 ATS home off a DD division win.
SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Seattle 20 - (4:15) -- First revenge setup of the season,
with the Seahawks seeking retribution for earlier 33-30 OT home loss to the
Niners. And it was legit, as SanFran held a 365-351 yd edge in that 9½ pt
cover. The Niners still not a defensive force, allowing >28 pts in 5 of their last
6 games, but the Seahawks on the road, without Hasselbeck, are lost. Check
deficits of 22-7 in FDs, 402-176 in yds, & 41:41-18:19 possession time, in loss
to the Bucs. But a cover, nonetheless, thanks to a 17-yd drive a KO return.
'Hawks had allowed 44, 42, 34, & 44 pts in their 4 RGs previous to that joke.
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 - (4:05) -- Well, the Texans did it to us again. No
less than 3 straight excruciating losses in the last 3 wks (1, 2, 2½ pt setbacks),
with latest vs Detroit, as a 28-10 lead in the 4th, deteriorated into a 28-21 win
(96-yd TD pass). So, a 52-29 FD edge for Houston the past 2 wks, but 0-2
ATS. This marks their 4th straight HG, thanks to schedule rearranging, & we
will string along with them again, as they average 30.5 ppg at home in their last
8 hosters. Cincy the pits. An 0-7 record (5th time in 18 yrs), with a 1,066-512
RY deficit, altho the dog is 12-4 ATS in Bengal games of late. Finally a cover.
MONDAY
TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Titans just keep on doing
it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1
ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC,
with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs, respectively. Colts still seeking an
overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a
pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing
less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than
that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately.
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 23 - 27, 2008 No. 9
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *FLORIDA over Kentucky
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA 48 - Kentucky 14
Long-time SEC scouts report Florida’s clever o.c. Dan Mullen has added a few wrinkles during the bye week for
poised, speedy but strong frosh RBs Demps & Rainey, who combined for 195 YR (9.3 ypc!) in convincing 51-21
drubbing of LSU. And now that Heisman Trophy winner Tebow (leads SEC in pass efficiency; 10 TD, just 1 int.) is
performing more “instinctively,” according the coaches, that spells bad news for a highly-ranked Kentucky defense
that has yet to face an attack that has Gators blend of speed, balance and creativity. Plus, with gifted Southern Cal
transfer RB Moody expected back from an ankle injury, smallish Wildcat defense succumbs in “The Swamp,” where
Urban Meyer’s crew has covered 8 of last 10. Expect fast, sure-tackling UF defense (13 ppg, 3.2 ypc) to smother
a containable, starless UK attack (only 17 ppg vs. SEC foes) that was mostly flummoxed by green Arkansas defense
until unpolished QB Hartline hit a couple TD passes in final few minutes of near-miraculous 21-20 comeback win vs.
Hogs. Not here. Refreshed, poll-conscious UF captures 22nd straight in series in convincing fashion.
10 ILLINOIS over *Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
ILLINOIS 33 - *Wisconsin 20
Illinois has come together in Big Ten play, covering 3 of 4 games behind spectacular production of QB Juice Williams.
Williams has thrown for an average of 348 yds. in the last 3 games with 7 TD passes and has run for 192 yards and
3 more scores. He holds a major edge over any of Wisconsin’s choices at QB, who’ve combined to complete only
32 of 68 passes with 0 TDs and 5 ints. in last 2 games. Illinois physical WR Rejus Benn has 543 receiving yards in
the last 4 games. Badgers have dropped four straight, and HC Bielema likely to go to a more basic, smashmouth
attack this week. The problem with that is that the Illini have yielded just 2.9 ypc in their last 3 games, and that
Badgers top rusher P.J. Hill suffered an ankle injury in last week’s loss at Iowa and didn’t return to the game.
10 *LSU over Georgia
Late Score Forecast:
*LSU 27 - Georgia 14
Talented LSU bounced back from Florida setback with a good effort at South Carolina, but expect even more out of
Les Miles’ crew this week against Georgia. ‘Dawgs are 0-4 against the number in SEC play this season, and QB
Matthew Stafford has thrown just as many interceptions (5) as TD passes in Georgia’s last 3 games. Stafford has
been under more pressure than HC Mark Richt would like due to a young offensive line, and LSU has two of the top
three sack men in the SEC in DEs Tyson Jackson and Rahim Alem. Tiger RS frosh QB Jarrett Lee coming along well,
ranking 4th in the conference in pass efficiency, and he had his best SEC game so far in front of the friendly crowd
in Baton Rouge, where LSU has won 22 of its last 23 games.
10 VIRGINIA TECH over *Florida St.
Late Score Forecast:
VIRGINIA TECH 24 - *Florida St. 19
Although a narrow loser last week at BC, trip to Tallahassee won’t spook Virginia Tech bunch that has already won
at North Carolina and Nebraska and has long since established itself as a pointspread force on the road (17-4 vs. line
last 21 as visitor) and as a dog (10-3 last 13 in role). Fundamentals suggest matchup vs. FSU not too bad for Hokies,
especially since Bud Foster’s aggressive defense can effectively blitz and disguise coverages much as Wake
Forest did when frustrating the Noles and erratic QB Ponder last month. And with Ponder (only 53% completions)
still a work in progress, FSU unlikely to reverse its underachieving ways as Doak Campbell chalk (0-1 TY, now 5-14
last 19 in role). As long as soph QB Taylor doesn’t self-destruct, VT will be in position for “Beamer Ball” (“D” scored
2 TDs at BC) to once again make the difference.
10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 28 - *Pittsburgh 20
(Sunday, October 26)
Pittsburgh off to a fine 5-1 start, winning its last three games without Willie Parker. Making it four in a row vs. the
Giants—if Parker is either out or still not 100%—figures to be a much tougher task. The 2008 Steeler OL has had
more than its share of problems, losing stalwart G Alan Faneca to the Jets in the offseason and then starting G
Kendall Simmons to injury in the fourth game. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson was able to dial up nine sacks
vs. Pittsburgh in the third week of the season, and Johnson was the mentor of N.Y. def. coord. Steve Spagnuolo
before the latter took over the Giants’ rushers on their way to a Super Bowl victory over Tom Brady & the Patriots
LY. With Ben Roethlisberger trying to overcome a sore shoulder, you know N.Y. will be bringing the heat. Giants
deeper at RB and 8-2 their last 10 as an underdog.
TOTALS: UNDER (45½) in the Atlanta-Philadelphia game—Falcs like to use RB Michael Turner (597 YR) to help keep opponents under control, keeping rookie QB Matt Ryan out of shootouts while he learns on the job...OVER (43½) in the Arizona-Carolina game—Cards’ turnovers, combined with their aerial game, have helped them go “over” 11 of last 15 on the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+10½) at Maryland—Terrapins (3-12 last 15 when favored) can be caught when carrying the points; RS frosh QB Russell Wilson sparking the NCS offense while defense now healthier...ALABAMA (-7) at Tennessee—Crimson Tide way too sound overall, much more experienced at QB for struggling Vols to match on scoreboard...PENN STATE (-1½) at Ohio State—Nittany Lions (0-7 last seven trips to OSU) have been playing better than Buckeyes in the pits TY; sr. QB Daryll Clark gives PSU better balance, more experience on offense...NEVADA (-3½) at Hawaii—After years of being out-gunned by the Red Gun, Nevada’s Kaepernick is by far the best QB in this game, and bruising
5-10, 225 soph Vai Taua the best RB...BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland—Mistake-prone Raiders making cross-country trip to face surprising Ravens, who feast on opponents’ blunders.
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 23 - 27, 2008 No. 9
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *FLORIDA over Kentucky
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA 48 - Kentucky 14
Long-time SEC scouts report Florida’s clever o.c. Dan Mullen has added a few wrinkles during the bye week for
poised, speedy but strong frosh RBs Demps & Rainey, who combined for 195 YR (9.3 ypc!) in convincing 51-21
drubbing of LSU. And now that Heisman Trophy winner Tebow (leads SEC in pass efficiency; 10 TD, just 1 int.) is
performing more “instinctively,” according the coaches, that spells bad news for a highly-ranked Kentucky defense
that has yet to face an attack that has Gators blend of speed, balance and creativity. Plus, with gifted Southern Cal
transfer RB Moody expected back from an ankle injury, smallish Wildcat defense succumbs in “The Swamp,” where
Urban Meyer’s crew has covered 8 of last 10. Expect fast, sure-tackling UF defense (13 ppg, 3.2 ypc) to smother
a containable, starless UK attack (only 17 ppg vs. SEC foes) that was mostly flummoxed by green Arkansas defense
until unpolished QB Hartline hit a couple TD passes in final few minutes of near-miraculous 21-20 comeback win vs.
Hogs. Not here. Refreshed, poll-conscious UF captures 22nd straight in series in convincing fashion.
10 ILLINOIS over *Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
ILLINOIS 33 - *Wisconsin 20
Illinois has come together in Big Ten play, covering 3 of 4 games behind spectacular production of QB Juice Williams.
Williams has thrown for an average of 348 yds. in the last 3 games with 7 TD passes and has run for 192 yards and
3 more scores. He holds a major edge over any of Wisconsin’s choices at QB, who’ve combined to complete only
32 of 68 passes with 0 TDs and 5 ints. in last 2 games. Illinois physical WR Rejus Benn has 543 receiving yards in
the last 4 games. Badgers have dropped four straight, and HC Bielema likely to go to a more basic, smashmouth
attack this week. The problem with that is that the Illini have yielded just 2.9 ypc in their last 3 games, and that
Badgers top rusher P.J. Hill suffered an ankle injury in last week’s loss at Iowa and didn’t return to the game.
10 *LSU over Georgia
Late Score Forecast:
*LSU 27 - Georgia 14
Talented LSU bounced back from Florida setback with a good effort at South Carolina, but expect even more out of
Les Miles’ crew this week against Georgia. ‘Dawgs are 0-4 against the number in SEC play this season, and QB
Matthew Stafford has thrown just as many interceptions (5) as TD passes in Georgia’s last 3 games. Stafford has
been under more pressure than HC Mark Richt would like due to a young offensive line, and LSU has two of the top
three sack men in the SEC in DEs Tyson Jackson and Rahim Alem. Tiger RS frosh QB Jarrett Lee coming along well,
ranking 4th in the conference in pass efficiency, and he had his best SEC game so far in front of the friendly crowd
in Baton Rouge, where LSU has won 22 of its last 23 games.
10 VIRGINIA TECH over *Florida St.
Late Score Forecast:
VIRGINIA TECH 24 - *Florida St. 19
Although a narrow loser last week at BC, trip to Tallahassee won’t spook Virginia Tech bunch that has already won
at North Carolina and Nebraska and has long since established itself as a pointspread force on the road (17-4 vs. line
last 21 as visitor) and as a dog (10-3 last 13 in role). Fundamentals suggest matchup vs. FSU not too bad for Hokies,
especially since Bud Foster’s aggressive defense can effectively blitz and disguise coverages much as Wake
Forest did when frustrating the Noles and erratic QB Ponder last month. And with Ponder (only 53% completions)
still a work in progress, FSU unlikely to reverse its underachieving ways as Doak Campbell chalk (0-1 TY, now 5-14
last 19 in role). As long as soph QB Taylor doesn’t self-destruct, VT will be in position for “Beamer Ball” (“D” scored
2 TDs at BC) to once again make the difference.
10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 28 - *Pittsburgh 20
(Sunday, October 26)
Pittsburgh off to a fine 5-1 start, winning its last three games without Willie Parker. Making it four in a row vs. the
Giants—if Parker is either out or still not 100%—figures to be a much tougher task. The 2008 Steeler OL has had
more than its share of problems, losing stalwart G Alan Faneca to the Jets in the offseason and then starting G
Kendall Simmons to injury in the fourth game. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson was able to dial up nine sacks
vs. Pittsburgh in the third week of the season, and Johnson was the mentor of N.Y. def. coord. Steve Spagnuolo
before the latter took over the Giants’ rushers on their way to a Super Bowl victory over Tom Brady & the Patriots
LY. With Ben Roethlisberger trying to overcome a sore shoulder, you know N.Y. will be bringing the heat. Giants
deeper at RB and 8-2 their last 10 as an underdog.
TOTALS: UNDER (45½) in the Atlanta-Philadelphia game—Falcs like to use RB Michael Turner (597 YR) to help keep opponents under control, keeping rookie QB Matt Ryan out of shootouts while he learns on the job...OVER (43½) in the Arizona-Carolina game—Cards’ turnovers, combined with their aerial game, have helped them go “over” 11 of last 15 on the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+10½) at Maryland—Terrapins (3-12 last 15 when favored) can be caught when carrying the points; RS frosh QB Russell Wilson sparking the NCS offense while defense now healthier...ALABAMA (-7) at Tennessee—Crimson Tide way too sound overall, much more experienced at QB for struggling Vols to match on scoreboard...PENN STATE (-1½) at Ohio State—Nittany Lions (0-7 last seven trips to OSU) have been playing better than Buckeyes in the pits TY; sr. QB Daryll Clark gives PSU better balance, more experience on offense...NEVADA (-3½) at Hawaii—After years of being out-gunned by the Red Gun, Nevada’s Kaepernick is by far the best QB in this game, and bruising
5-10, 225 soph Vai Taua the best RB...BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland—Mistake-prone Raiders making cross-country trip to face surprising Ravens, who feast on opponents’ blunders.
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THE GOLD SHEET
VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 23-27, 2008 NO. 9
NFL ANALYSIS
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the
following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes
attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader
is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series.
P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number
of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they
met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star (H).
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game,
when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or
Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—
Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions.
ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—
Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years.
TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best
rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please
note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog
as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread
on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
KEY RELEASES---
MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo
WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe
Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB
JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s
early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow
when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the
retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in
a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &
Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.
(06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)
New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as
it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time
of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might
not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,
Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.
Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,
or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which
misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is
another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)
(04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)
NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too
many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony
Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the
doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last
week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better
offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR
week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.
(07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)
(07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)
***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the
road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing
repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.
Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as
the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so
some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy
on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out
last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,
CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than
Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,
considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can
also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.
Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread
mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying
more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.
(06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie
QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben
Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s
Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner
(597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with
new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles
can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in
Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian
Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.
(06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)
NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the
2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense
and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots
has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the
Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought
victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and
speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have
a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough
prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.
(04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)
CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in
Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with
confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan
Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish
Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action
and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad
downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has
struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have
already lost at Skins & Jets).
(07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)
(07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)
***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight
meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,
but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re
clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams
traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its
improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now
around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).
Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth
seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to
overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the
spread last 14 overall.
(07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)
(07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as
TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.
Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie
Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,
Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent
bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can
get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.
(05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two
of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of
Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off
Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh
QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.
S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine
despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last
58 at Heinz Field!!!
(04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems
with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his
beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered
only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle
blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing
the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays
in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have
a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.
(08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)
WRITE-IN GAME
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 [Schedule re-arrangement due to due
Hurricane Ike]—Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with
only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first
half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to
come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t
count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,
Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27
*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,
Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t
seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the
year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee
needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before
taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,
which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the
spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how
they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)
COLLEGE ANALYSIS
KEY RELEASES---
MINNESOTA by 12 over Purdue
VANDERBILT by 20 over Duke
GEORGIA TECH by 28 over Virginia
TULSA by 32 over Ucf (Sunday, Oct. 26)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23
*Auburn 20 - WEST VIRGINIA 19—Star sr. QB Pat White should be back in
action for West Virginia. Still, TY’s Mountaineer offense was already looking
very mediocre (especially in comparison with prolific strike forces of last few
seasons) before White sat out 17-6 home win over woeful Syracuse on Oct. 11.
Extra week of prep no panacea for wayward Auburn attack. But time enough for
some tweaking by veteran HC Tuberville after jettisoning o.c. Tony Franklin,
and speedy Tiger defense (only 13 ppg) matches up well against WV’s spread option. TV—
ESPN (First Meeting)
*AIR FORCE 26 - New Mexico 24—We’re sure New Mexico enjoyed a rare
chance to imitate Tom Osborne’s old Nebraska teams when running the ball
down San Diego State’s throat last week. Dominating a capable Air Force
bunch is an entirely different matter, but Lobos also on ascent because OL
jelling and QB situation no longer dire with RS frosh Gruner getting comfy at
controls. Rocky Long’s unorthodox 3-3-5 “D” might unnerve Falcs’ exciting but
green frosh QB Jefferson.
(07-N. MEX. 34-A. Force 31...18-18 A.49/212 N.48/156 N.16/28/1/169 A.11/18/0/110 N.1 A.5)
(07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24...SR: Air Force 14-10)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
*Boise State 25 - SAN JOSE STATE 23—Boise’s recent trips to San Jose
have been harrowing to say the least (narrow escapes in ‘04 & ‘06 almost
scuttled unbeaten Bronco reg.-season marks). Don’t expect anything different
this time, not with Spartan “D” shutting off passing lanes with lockdown CBs
Owens & Francies, likely forcing Boise RS frosh QB K. Moore to “matriculate”
downfield in more conservative manner. Note Dick Tomey’s bunch on 9-game
home cover streak! CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-BOISE ST. 42-Sjsu 7...B.23-13 B.31/144 S.32/98 B.32/41/1/290 S.16/30/0/100 B.1 S.0)
(07-BSU -25' 42-7 06-Bsu -13' 23-20 05-BSU -30' 38-21...SR: Boise State 8-0)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
ARMY 24 - Louisiana Tech 19—La Tech hasn’t been traveling well since the
days George W. Bush’s approval ratings were near 50% (Bulldogs 0-3 vs.
number on road TY, 13-35-2 vs. line away since early ‘01!), so don’t mind giving
ascending Army a look. “Back to the future” theme playing well at West Point,
as Black Knights have covered 4 straight since Stan Brock switched to option
on full-time basis, and robust “D” (ranks respectable 40th) excellent by academy
standards. (First Meeting)
MARYLAND 28 - North Carolina State 24—Although “buy” signs on the
Terrapins were abundant in last week’s impressive beatdown of ranked Wake,
desultory Maryland has been an exceedingly poor investment as a favorite
recently, covering just 3 of last 15 laying points. With resourceful RS frosh QB
R. Wilson making plays for N.C. State offense and Wolfpack defense getting
healthier, compelled to back dog.
(07-Mary. 37-N. CAR. ST. 0...M.22-14 M.49/249 N.16/10 N.26/45/1/240 M.20/25/0/217 M.0 N.0)
(07-Mary. +2 37-0 06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14...SR: EVEN 30-30-4)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 26 - Wake Forest 20—Tough to predict which platoon will
prevail in matchup of young, banged-up Hurricane defense vs. regressing
Wake offense that has mustered just 1 TD in first 3 ACC games. Can
precocious Miami true frosh QB Jacory Harris (4 TDP, 1 TDR, 2 ints. during last
week’s win at Duke) avoid major mistakes against Deacons’ ball-hawking
veteran stop unit (20 takeaways)? TV-ESPNU
(05-Miami-Florida -16' 47-17...SR: Miami-Florida 5-3)
Northwestern 31 - INDIANA 17—Seven straight spread losses and a 10-
ranked pass defense are enough to keep Indiana on our “go-against” list.
Hoosier QB Lewis (ankle injury) has just 1 TDP and only 39 YR in the last 3
games, so no end in sight for Indiana slide. Northwestern has already won
tougher road games than this at Duke and Iowa, so QB Bacher and a solid corps
of receivers should hurt Hoosier 2ndary.
(07-N’WESTERN 31-Ind. 28...N.26-17 N.46/165 I.27/94 N.27/34/3/291 I.18/28/1/204 N.0 I.1)
(07-NORTHWESTERN +2' 31-28...SR: Northwestern 42-33-1)
***Minnesota 31 - PURDUE 19—Rested Minnesota has covered 5
straight and owns one of most improved defenses in the nation. Gopher d.c.
Ted Roof has a bend-but-don’t break unit that’s generating lots of turnovers
(Gophers rank 1st in TO margin; Purdue 101st). Not sure reeling Purdue
capable of moving ball consistently, considering Boiler QB Painter has been a
disappointment in ’08, with 9 ints. & just 4 TD passes in last 6 games, and has
apparently lost the confidence of HC Tiller. Minny’s Weber-to-Decker combo
too much Purdue 2ndary that bee hurt by lesser QBs.
(07-Purd. 45-MINN. 31...P.28-25 M.37/232 P.33/166 P.33/48/1/338 M.23/44/1/237 P.0 M.3)
(07-Purd. -14 45-31 06-PURD. +2' 27-21 05-MINN. -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-30-3)
NORTH CAROLINA 23 - Boston College 16—Carolina trying not to let gutwrenching
loss at Virginia (Heels never trailed until Cavs punched in
game-winning overtime TD) linger, while resilient BC has put together 4 straight
victories. Tough to ignore Eagle QB Crane’s carelessness with rock (3 ints., 2
returned for TDs, during win over Va. Tech), however, especially considering
that UNC leads nation with 14 “picks.” Heel soph RB Draughn (338 YR last 3
games) is top ground threat on field.
(05-NORTH CAROLINA +4' 16-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Cincinnati 20 - CONNECTICUT 17—Acknowledge that well-coached UConn
has been profitable play as host, covering 15 of last 20 at Hartford. Still,
reluctant to buck money-making Cincy mentor Brian Kelly, who’s been a 68% play
vs. spread over last few seasons. Bearcats’ vastly superior receivers & greater
speed on defense held sway in LY’s meeting. Same story this time around.
(07-CINCY 27-Conn. 3...Ci.18-11 Ci.39/144 Co.22/22 Ci.21/33/0/276 Co.18/37/1/182 Ci.0 Co.0)
(07-CINCY -6' 27-3 06-Cincy -4' 26-23 05-CINCY +7' 28-17...SR: Cincinnati 4-0)
Illinois 28 - WISCONSIN 21—Wisconsin is broken, and we’re not convinced
HC Bielema can fix things in one week. Offensive failures continued against
Iowa last week, as Badgers’ move to Dustin Sherer at QB didn’t help (17 of 34
passing, 174 YP, 2 ints. & 0 TDPs). Ankle injury to top rusher P.J. Hill
compounds Bielema’s problems, and Wisconsin is just 7-8 SU in last 15
games. Conversely, Illinois offense exploding as QB Juice Williams (1043 YP,
8 TDP, 3 rush TDs & only 1 int. in the last 3 games) and WR Rejus Benn (136
ypg receiving in last 4) clicking, while highly-touted frosh RB Jason Ford had
172 YR against Indiana.
(07-ILL. 31-Wis. 26...W.28-18 I.44/289 W.31/127 W.27/49/2/392 I.12/19/0/121 I.0 W.0)
(07-ILL. -2' 31-26 06-WIS. -21 30-24 05-Wis. -20' 41-24...SR: Illinois 36-33-7)
PITTSBURGH 24 - Rutgers 10—In first 6 games vs. FBS foes, Rutgers’
reeling Ray Rice-less offense mustered just 9 TDs, while Scarlet Knight stop
unit failed to snag a single “takeaway.” Improving Panthers ride star soph RB
McCoy (447 YR & 5 TDs in last 3 games) & stingy defense to convincing victory.
(07-RUT. 20-Pitt 16...P.14-13 R.40/111 P.41/110 P.14/28/1/158 R.5/17/2/108 R.2 P.1)
(07-RUTGERS -12 20-16 06-Rutgers +6' 20-10 05-RUTGERS P 37-29...SR: Pittsburgh 19-6)
*Texas A&M 27 - IOWA STATE 24—ISU (five straight losses) has the
advantage of defense and the home field, but the Cyclone offense is slowing to
a walk (10 & 7 points last two games). The A&M defense (34.4 ppg), however,
continues to betray the development the Aggie offense has been showing under
former Packer coach Mike Sherman. ISU only 3-7 last 10 when favored.
(05-Iowa State +11 42-14...SR: Texas A&M 7-1)
FLORIDA 42 - Kentucky 12—Though UK finally showed offensive
competence in 21-20 comeback Lexington victory vs. Arkansas, prefer
refreshed UF, which has covered 8 of past 10 in “The Swamp.” Gator o.c.
Mullen has found the right formula by using both speedy true frosh Demps & RS
frosh Rainey (both prep WRs) in backfield (combined 195 YR vs. LSU!). With
UF’s previously over-thinking QB Tebow heeding advice of Mullen, who said
“Quit acting like a professor and play like a guy who won the Hesiman Trophy,”
Wildcats highly-ranked defense fails toughest test to date.
(07-Fla. 45-KY. 37...K.29-21 F.37/171 K.35/97 K.35/50/0/415 F.18/26/0/256 F.0 K.0)
(07-Florida -7 45-37 06-FLORIDA -26' 26-7 05-Florida -23 49-28...SR: Florida 41-17)
*Mississippi 28 - ARKANSAS 20—UA might suffer a “hangover effect” after
leading for 58 mins. of painful 21-20 setback at Kentucky, so side with
rejuvenated Ole Miss, primed to snap 4-game series losing skein (outscored
82-11 L2YS). Rebels dynamic QB Snead more likely to make game-changing
plays than Hog counterpart C. Dick (ugly 11 of 29 for 94 yds. vs. UK), especially
with hot RB M. Smith cooled off by Ole Miss’ stingy front 7 (just 3.2 ypc; limited
Bama to a meager 107 YR).
(07-Ark. 44-MISS. 8...A.23-20 A.54/293 M.34/112 M.14/34/4/182 A.12/18/1/144 A.0 M.0)
(07-Ark. -5' 44-8 06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17...SR: Arkansas 30-23-1)
BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 14—Teams headed in opposite
directions, as 7-0 Ball State seeking MAC title, while EMU looking like the team
that’s dropped 15 of last 21 spread decisions (How long can Jeff Genyk avoid
the axe?). Defensive contrasts dramatic, as Cardinals rank 16th in scoring “D”
at 15 ppg, while Eagles are 101st. Main question is whether Nate Davis and highpowered
Ball State attack “get the number” before being replaced by reserves.
(07-Ball St. 38-E. MICH. 16...B.24-11 B.42/153 E.28/107 B.19/39/0/306 E.16/26/1/155 B.0 E.0)
(07-Bsu -4 38-16 06-BSU -5 38-20 05-Bsu +6 26-25...SR: Ball State 27-20-2)
BYU 47 - Unlv 17—BYU’s BCS hopes abruptly ended in stinging 32-7 loss at
TCU, but expect angry Cougs to vent frustration vs. defensively-outmanned
UNLV (yielding 32 ppg), which is 2-11 vs. spread last 13 as MWC visitor.
BYU’s prolific QB Hall (69%, 20 TDs, 6 ints.) easily dissects inviting Rebel
2ndary (11 TDs, only 3 ints.), totally untested by Air Force option last week.
Resilient Cougs (6-2 vs. spread last 8 following SU loss) 10-4 vs. spread in
Provo since ‘06.
(07-Byu 24-UNLV 14...B.26-14 B.45/227 U.25/96 B.21/33/3/214 U.16/26/1/121 B.1 U.0)
(07-Byu -11 24-14 06-BYU -28' 52-7 05-Byu -12 55-14...SR: BYU 12-3)
***VANDERBILT 34 - Duke 14—Since Vandy might have big trouble
reaching that elusive 6th win with a brutal Nov. slate, now’s the time to endorse
hungry ‘Dores stepping waaayy down in class. Vandy’s mobile QB M. Adams
& RB Hawkins (399 YR, 4.2 ypc) burn a Duke defense feeling “bad vibes” after
allowing 35 2nd-H pts. in 49-31 loss vs. Miami. ‘Dores TO-creating stop unit (17
takeaways; 13 ints.!) helps set up favorable field position vs. Blue Devils, on
road for only 2nd time TY. (06-Vanderbilt -8 45-28...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)
Rice 37 - TULANE 34—Sure, high-stepping Tulane jr. RB André Anderson
(185 ypg rushing in last 4) will keep potent Rice attack idling on sidelines for
extended stretches. But quick-trigger Owl sr. QB Clement (6 more TDP last
week, 72 in last 2+ seasons!) doesn’t usually need much time to strike pay dirt.
(07-Tulane 45-RICE 31...19-19 T.54/267 R.15/23 R.35/55/0/353 T.11/22/1/188 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulane +2' 45-31 06-TULANE +2' 38-24 05-RICE -1 42-34...SR: Rice 15-14-1)
Fresno State 38 - UTAH STATE 24—Despite the best efforts of exciting soph
QB Borel, Utah State remains so deficient in so many other areas (such as
109th-ranked “D”) that it’s risky recommending Utags at almost any price. But
disappointing Fresno not providing a lot of value either (no covers last 5). And
with BCS dreams long since dashed, not sure we trust Bulldogs carrying heavy
lumber on road.
(07-FRES. ST. 38-Utah St. 27...F.23-20 F.47/255 U.38/155 U.18/26/0/214 F.13/18/1/131 F.1 U.1)
(07-FSU -20' 38-27 06-USU +26' 13-12 05-FSU -33 53-21...SR: Fresno State 12-10-1)
NAVY 34 - Smu 30—Contrast in styles of these two as stark as the differences
between Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes. But Navy option not operating at peak
efficiency if QB Kaipo’s hamstring injury continues to linger. Meanwhile,
SMU quietly becoming more competitive (no spread losses last 4), and back
door wide open for Bo Levi Mitchell and June Jones’ evolving Dallas version
of the Red Gun.
(DNP...SR: SMU 7-5)
Alabama 24 - TENNESSEE 13—While embroiled HC Fulmer’s growing
legion of critics temporarily silenced following 34-3 romp vs. offensively-iffy
MSU, they return following Vols anticipated 4th loss TY vs. an SEC contender.
Fast-starting Tide (outscoring foes 95-3 in 1st Q!) likely to force UT (outscored
37-0 in 1st Q) to be in early catch-up mode. Doubt immature QB Stephens (just
23 of 50 L2 weeks) can close deficit vs. stout Tide defense (15 ppg, 2.3 ypc)
hell-bent to play 4 intense Qs after HC Saban has bemoaned “complacent
efforts” following intermission in recent victories.
(07-ALA. 41-Tenn. 17...A.21-19 A.38/147 T.19/103 A.32/46/0/363 T.23/38/2/259 A.0 T.0)
(07-ALA. +1 41-17 06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3...SR: Alabama 45-38-7)
*ARIZONA STATE 29 - Oregon 24—Native son John McCain might wish he
could have taken a week off as did ASU, which hopes last week’s “bye” allowed
Dennis Erickson and o.c. Rich Olson a chance to tune up laboring “O” in Sun
Devil garage. Banged-up Oregon also welcomed its own “bye” and should have
QB Roper available once more. But if off week indeed allowed Rudy Carpenter’s
sore ankle to heal, Sun Devils might start to resemble their form from ‘07 and the
first few weeks of this season when attack was popping.
(07-ORE. 35-Ariz. St. 23...A.25-22 O.41/200 A.41/110 A.22/37/1/379 O.15/26/0/200 O.1 A.1)
(07-ORE. -8 35-23 06-Ore. +1' 48-13 05-Ore. +10 31-17...SR: Arizona State 16-12)
CALIFORNIA 30 - Ucla 20—UCLA not scoring many style points these days.
But this isn’t Dancing With The Stars, and sage o.c. Norm Chow has juco QB
Craft making just enough plays to keep Bruins within earshot most weeks.
Meanwhile, Jeff Tedford’s QB juggling act showing signs of backfiring (both
Longshore & Riley erratic), and top Cal weapon RB Best could be compromised
by nagging arm injury. Heavy technicals in UCLA’s favor (Bruins 14-2 last 16 as
dog, and 37-18 overall vs. number since early ‘04; Bears 4-15-1 last 20 laying
DDs). REG. TV—ABC
(07-UCLA 30-Cal. 21...U.22-19 U.45/183 C.30/67 C.22/34/3/232 U.19/28/0/190 U.2 C.1)
(07-UCLA +2' 30-21 06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40...SR: UCLA 49-28-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 26 - Kent State 24—Can’t lay many points with Miami-O. side
that’s dropped 8 straight as a favorite. Return to action of Kent RB Eugene
Jarvis (50 YR & 2 recs. in limited duty vs. Ohio) and a week off should be enough
to pry a good performance out of Golden Flashes. Miami offense doesn’t scare
anybody, as RedHawk QB switch from vet Raudabaugh to RS frosh Belton
netted a win at Bowling Green, but Belton completed only 11 of 23 passes for
129 yards. Kent won’t be surprised by Miami true frosh Jay Taylor (127 YR in
first extended duty vs. BG).
(07-Miami 20-KENT ST. 13...K.25-16 K.45/203 M.36/101 M.16/22/0/310 K.19/33/2/260 M.2 K.1)
(07-Miami +9 20-13 06-Ksu +12' 16-14 05-Miami -6' 27-10...SR: Miami-Ohio 28-20-2)
***GEORGIA TECH 35 - Virginia 7—Three straight home wins have put
surprising Virginia & beleaguered HC Groh back in thick of ACC title chase. But
Cavs now hitting the road, where they’re just 9-25 vs. spread in last 34 as true
visitor. Facing Tech’s terrific DL a tough assignment for still-learning UVa soph
QB Verica, and no better bankroll buddy than new Jacket & former Navy mentor
Paul Johnson (5-0 against line TY). TV—ESPNU
(07-VA. 28-Ga. Tech 23...V.20-17 G.31/121 V.42/121 V.20/35/1/233 G.17/40/1/230 V.2 G.1)
(07-VA. +3' 28-23 06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17...SR: Virginia 15-14-1)
TEXAS 38 - Oklahoma State 31—Rare deep-in-the-season matchup of
teams undefeated both SU and vs. the spread. The public unloaded on
Missouri at UT last week, but Mack Brown deserves credit for keeping his team
from “eating the cheese” in the trap of a possible letdown after the Horns’ upset
of Oklahoma. OSU has a recent history of wild shootouts vs. the Longhorns,
and QB Zac Robinson (70%, 14 TDs , 4 ints.) is playing nearly as well as UT’s
McCoy. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Texas 38-OK. ST. 35...O.29-27 T.42/307 O.45/164 O.30/42/0/430 T.20/27/3/282 T.0 O.1)
(07-Texas -2' 38-35 06-TEXAS -18 36-10 05-Texas -37' 47-28...SR: Texas 20-2)
LSU 26 - Georgia 20—Now that o.c. Crowton has expanded playbook for
strong-armed, fast-learning QB Lee, support loaded, deep LSU, which is 41-4
SU in Tiger Stadium since 2002 (last two losses in OT!). UGA QB Stafford finds
no comfort zone behind green OL (all frosh-soph) hard-pressed to slow down an
unleashed Tiger pass rush (season-best 6 sacks at S. Carolina). LSU’s blazing 5-
5 return man Holliday (24-yd. avg. on punts) can score any time, while undervalued
RB K. Scott (6.4 ypc) not outdueled by Dawgs more celebrated RB Moreno.
(05-GEORGIA +1' 34-14 at Atlanta...SR: LSU 14-11-1)
Oklahoma 47 - KANSAS STATE 23—Despite all its firepower (47 ppg), OU
has failed to cover its last two games, going 1-1 SU, with oddsmakers writing
“pointspread checks” the Sooner defense couldn’t cash with its allowances of
45 points vs. Texas and 31 vs. Kansas. But it’s hard to go against the Sooners
with their solid OL and big-play offense when juco-laden K-State has been
scrambling for a running game and defensive stability to help support powerful
QB Josh Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints.). (05-OKL. -7 43-21...SR: Okla. 67-17-4)
Michigan State 24 - MICHIGAN 23—Both of these teams a bit shellshocked
after suffering blowout-losses last week. Not quite ready to lay points at Ann
Arbor with MSU side that hasn’t won there since 1990. Spartans have
challenges, as QB Hoyer left the Ohio St. game with a hand injury and has a
possible concussion, while Michigan run defense yields just 3.3 ypc.
Wolverines played one good half of football last week, which is more than can
be said for the Spartans. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 28-MICH. ST. 24...U.18-17 S.43/191 U.30/100 U.18/33/1/211 S.19/35/1/161 U.0 S.0)
(07-Mich. -3' 28-24 06-MICH. -15' 31-13 05-Mich. +5 34-31 (OT)...SR: Michigan 67-28-5)
FLORIDA STATE 24 - Virginia Tech 23—“Technicals” clearly favor taking
points with Tech, as Hokies still 17-4 vs. spread last 21 as visitor (even after
dropping decision at BC last week), while Seminoles have been decidedly subpar
as favorite over last several seasons. Fundamentally, however, FSU has the
best RB on field in sr. Antone Smith (335 YR & 8 TDs in last 3 games) and the QB
most likely to do damage through air in blossoming soph Ponder. REG. TV—ABC
(07-VA. TECH 40-Fla. St. 21...V.17-13 V.54/188 F.28/116 V.11/19/1/207 F.13/33/2/151 V.0 F.1)
(07-TECH -6' 40-21 05-Fsu +14 27-22 at Jacksonville...SR: Florida State 21-11-1)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 37 - Bowling Green 23—With Huskies’ veteran
defense (only 11 ppg last 3) clamping down and their offense getting a spark
from return of resourceful RS frosh QB Harnish (3 TDP last week), the only thing
preventing a strong recommendation on NIU is recent profitability of Bowling
Green (13-5 vs. spread last 18 as visitor) on road.
(DNP...SR: Bowling Green 10-5)
New Mexico State 42 - IDAHO 20—After NMS’ record-breaking QB Holbrook
tossed two “picks” for TDs in 31-14 home loss vs. SJS, look for the future 6-5
NFL draftee to bounce back big-time vs. “invisible” Idaho defense (50 ppg) that
lost emotional leader (if they had one) SS Keo to season-ending injury. Woeful
Vandals gain no inspiration in Kibbie Dome, where they’ve failed to cover 9 straight.
(07-N. MEX. ST. 45-Idaho 31...N.26-25 I.43/234 N.24/88 N.36/49/0/404 I.19/35/2/212 N.0 I.1)
(07-NMS -9 45-31 06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-4)
*TCU 41 - Wyoming 3—No truth to the rumor that Wyo is so desperate to find
a QB that HC Glenn inquired if Joe The Plumber had any eligibility remaining.
Not that Joe would fare much worse than regressing Karsten Sween or the other
QBs that Cowboys have used to no avail in recent weeks. Hot TCU pretty
reliable laying heavy lumber at Fort Worth (7-1 last 8 laying DDs) now that
passing QB Dalton back in lineup. A better question is what to do if presented
with a 3½ “Wyo only total” on this game?
(07-WYO. 24-Tcu 21...22-22 W.51/232 T.43/134 T.22/39/1/210 W.12/26/1/134 W.1 T.2)
(07-WYOMING -3 24-21 06-TCU -6' 26-3 05-Tcu +7 28-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Central Michigan 34 - TOLEDO 21—CMU impressed by beating Western
Michigan last week without MAC MVP QB LeFevour at the controls. Chip
backup QB Brian Brunner completed 20 of 28 passes for 346 yards in relief, and
frosh Brian Schroeder made the most of his opportunity, rushing for 106 yards
and 2 TDs. Toledo defense ranks 104th and has yielded 40 ppg in losing 3 home
games. Rocket QB Opelt and WR S. Williams can’t trade scores with
Chippewas for long.
(07-C. MICH. 52-Tol. 31...C.28-21 C.42/218 T.36/101 T.26/42/0/381 C.22/32/0/244 C.0 T.1)
(07-CMU -3 52-31 06-Cmu +2' 42-20 05-CMU +7' 21-17...SR: Toledo 17-16-3)
South Florida 28 - LOUISVILLE 27—Substantial edge at QB for visiting USF
& its irrepressible jr. triggerman Grothe, as strong-armed Louisville sr.
counterpart Cantwell’s lack of mobility a major concern against hard-charging
Bull front 7 led by sackmeister DE Selvie. No surprise, however, if elusive RS
frosh RB V. Anderson (663 YR) and improved defense & special teams (4 TDs
last 2 games) keep Cards close.
(07-S. FLA. 55-Lvl. 17...S.26-23 S.49/230 L.26/130 L.24/49/4/273 S.19/27/1/251 S.0 L.3)
(07-USF -9 55-17 06-LVL. -17 31-8 05-USF +20 45-14...SR: South Florida 3-2)
NEBRASKA 34 - Baylor 20—After apologizing to the state of Nebraska for his
team’s performance in its 52-17 home loss vs. Missouri, Bo Pelini’s team hung
tough in 37-31 OT loss at Texas Tech and then routed ISU 35-7 in Ames. Baylor
QB Robert Griffin a marvel, but lack of a supporting ground game making things
difficult for “Rambo” on the road.
(05-Nebraska -2 23-14...SR: Nebraska 9-1)
KANSAS 34 - Texas Tech 28—TT (7-0), off to its best start in 32 years, is
beginning a stretch of four straight games vs. upper-echelon Big XII foes. With
Brian Batch (491 YR) leading the way, the usually pass-happy Red Raiders
have topped 100 YR in every game TY, out-rushing 6 of their 7 foes! The 2008
Jayhawks (sacked 5 times last week) miss the power runs of Brandon
McAnderson, but their 10-1 spread mark their last 11 at home is impressive.
(05-TEXAS TECH -18 30-17...SR: Texas Tech 9-1)
*MISSOURI 41 - Colorado 13—After being serenaded for 20 minutes by
chants of “o-ver-RA-ted” at Austin last week, expect HC Gary Pinkel, QB Chase
Daniel and the Tigers to dig deep back at home. MU has rushed for only 64 &
30 yards, respectively, in its consecutive losses vs. Oklahoma State & Texas.
But CU just 4-12-1 vs. the spread its last 17 away and is juggling QBs in search
of offense.
(07-Mo. 55-COLO. 10...M.25-7 M.42/169 C.30/84 M.27/45/1/429 C.14/28/1/112 M.0 C.2)
(07-Mo. -3' 55-10 06-MO. -15 28-13 05-COLO. -12 41-12...SR: Missouri 38-31-3)
*Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20—Favor red-hot Penn State, as Nittany
Lions have a QB edge with sr. Daryll Clark (18th in pass efficiency; 11 TDPs, 8
rush TDs) over still-learning true frosh Terrelle Pryor. Argument can also be
made that Paterno has better players in the pits. Penn State protects and
rushes the passer better than the Buckeyes, and the Nittany Lions allow more
than a half-yard less per carry than the OSU defense. Paterno 0-7 SU and vs.
number last 7 visits to the “Big Horshoe,” but he’d dropped 9 straight to Michigan prior
to last week’s game against the Wolverines. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Osu 37-PSU 17...O.24-14 O.48/200 P.23/139 O.19/26/1/253 P.16/26/1/124 O.0 P.1)
(07-Osu -3' 37-17 06-OSU -17 28-6 05-PSU +3' 17-10...SR: Ohio State 12-11)
*Southern Miss 31 - MEMPHIS 23—True, visiting Eagles have dropped their
last 4 games SU & vs. spread. But backing Memphis a very dicey proposition
now that Tigers likely down to third-string QB Toney (see Special Ticker).
(07-Mem. 29-USM 26...M.27-16 U.38/147 M.26/26 M.35/49/2/396 U.12/18/1/159 M.0 U.0)
(07-Memp. +16' 29-26 06-Usm -7 42-21 05-Memp. +7 24-22...SR: Southern Miss 37-20-1)
*Notre Dame 32 - WASHINGTON 16—Not completely sure that Ty
Willingham will still be on the job to face his old team when this one kicks off
(new U-Dub AD Steve Woodward under pressure to hit “eject” button before
season concludes). But with Jake Locker sidelined, reliever Fouch erratic, and
Huskies apt to wave the white flag at any time, we’d rather take our chances with
Notre Dame, especially since Charlie Weis’ improved OL should provide Jimmy
Clausen all day to throw. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-Notre Dame -13 36-17...SR: Notre Dame 6-0)
*Colorado State 32 - SAN DIEGO STATE 15—SDSU’s prospects are so
bleak that we doubt even CNBC’s Jim Cramer would be interested in “buying”
Aztecs at current depressed price levels. CSU not a prototypical road favorite,
but Rams have at least displayed some offensive competence with RB G.
Johnson & QB Farris. Note SDSU continues en route to historic stat exacta (last
nationally in both rush “O” and rush “D”!).
(07-Sds 24-COL. ST. 20...S.19-16 S.44/148 C.39/139 S.14/27/0/230 C.14/27/1/188 S.1 C.1)
(07-Sds +13' 24-20 06-SDS +1 17-6 05-Sds +7' 30-10...SR: San Diego State 15-12)
*Southern Cal 30 - ARIZONA 22—Now that SC facing a functioning offense
instead of the injury-plagued imitations it has seen in recent weeks, Trojans
might actually have to work for a full 60 minutes. Remember, Mike Stoops’ UA
teams have proven competitive lately (covering last 3) vs. Troy, and plenty of
competence in o.c. Sonny Dykes’ Texas Tech-like spread that uncovered a new
weapon last week in frosh RB Antolin (149 YR vs. Cal). Stoops’ scheming on “D”
has held Trojans to far under normal production in last 2 meetings (SC only
scored 20 on both occasions).
(07-S. CAL 20-Ariz. 13...S.19-13 S.43/146 A.16/22 A.30/43/0/233 S.19/31/2/130 S.0 A.3)
(07-USC -21 20-13 06-Usc -21 20-3 05-USC -37' 42-21...SR: Southern Cal 25-6)
*Nevada 29 - HAWAII 22—With QB Kaepernick likely at full attention after
disciplinary benching during 1st Q of last week’s game vs. Utah State, properlyfocused
Nevada has enough weapons to outscore post June Jones-version of
Hawaii Red Gun. New Warrior QB Funaki more likely to cause damage with his
legs than his arm, which won’t catch Wolf Pack “D” by surprise after chasing
Utags’ mobile Diondre Borel last week in Reno.
(07-Hawaii 28-NEV. 26...H.21-19 N.48/216 H.21/51 H.35/49/0/379 N.9/20/1/134 H.1 N.2)
(07-Hawaii -6 28-26 06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28...SR: EVEN 6-6)
ADDED GAMES
*MISSISSIPPI STATE 24 - Middle Tenn. St. 16—Scrappy MTS suffered 2nd-
H meltdown (outscored 27-6 after intermission) in 42-23 loss at L’Ville, but still
reluctant to lay DDs with offensively-shaky MSU (12 ppg), admittedly dropping
in class in midst of murderous SEC slate. Blue Raiders clever QB Craddock &
speedy WRs could hit enough plays to stay within DD impost of a Bulldog squad
0-4 as Starkville chalk since ‘05. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(DNP...SR: Miss. St. 2-0)
*LA.-MONROE 27 - Florida Atlantic 22—Charlie Weatherbie didn’t make
Monroe backers very happy by showing unusual compassion vs. outclassed
North Texas last week (Warhawks shut down their “O” after racing to 35-6
halftime lead). But we’ve seen more competence from QB Lancaster and the
ULM attack than from counterparts at FAU, now forced to rely on infantry
diversions (RB Pierre 192 YR at WKU) in light of QB Rusty Smith’s ‘08 struggles.
(07-La.-Mon. 33-FAU 30 (OT)...F.25-21 L.47/207 F.33/128 F.35/55/2/317 L.23/36/1/201 L.1 F.0)
(07-Ulm +6 33-30 (OT) 06-Fau +14 21-19 05-Ulm +7' 28-21...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)
*Troy 48 - NORTH TEXAS 16—Not that impressed by North Texas scoring
final 20 spread-covering points at La.-Monroe last week, as moribund Mean Green
(outscored 324-81 in first 3 Qs TY!) rarely positioned to sneak in “back door.”
(07-TROY 45-N. Texas 7...T.21-13 T.35/137 N.35/26 T.28/43/4/356 N.23/41/1/179 T.3 N.1)
(07-TROY -22' 45-7 06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 4-1)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*** *TULSA 56 - Ucf 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend
to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this
matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering
UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut
Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57
ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28
*Buffalo vs. OHIO—Check our website at www.goldsheet.com for details on
this one!! CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-BUF. 31-Ohio 10...B.22-18 B.56/251 O.32/90 O.23/41/2/186 B.11/20/0/146 B.0 W.0)
(07-BUFFALO +4 31-10 06-OHIO -17' 42-7 05-Ohio -4' 34-20...SR: Ohio 9-5)
VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 23-27, 2008 NO. 9
NFL ANALYSIS
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the
following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes
attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader
is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series.
P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number
of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they
met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star (H).
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game,
when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or
Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—
Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions.
ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—
Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years.
TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best
rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please
note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog
as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread
on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
KEY RELEASES---
MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo
WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe
Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB
JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s
early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow
when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the
retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in
a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &
Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.
(06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)
New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as
it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time
of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might
not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,
Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.
Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,
or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which
misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is
another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)
(04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)
NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too
many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony
Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the
doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last
week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better
offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR
week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.
(07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)
(07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)
***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the
road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing
repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.
Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as
the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so
some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy
on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out
last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,
CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than
Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,
considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can
also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.
Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread
mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying
more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.
(06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie
QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben
Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s
Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner
(597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with
new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles
can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in
Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian
Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.
(06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)
NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the
2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense
and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots
has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the
Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought
victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and
speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have
a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough
prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.
(04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)
CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in
Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with
confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan
Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish
Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action
and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad
downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has
struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have
already lost at Skins & Jets).
(07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)
(07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)
***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight
meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,
but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re
clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams
traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its
improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now
around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).
Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth
seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to
overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the
spread last 14 overall.
(07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)
(07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as
TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.
Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie
Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,
Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent
bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can
get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.
(05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two
of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of
Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off
Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh
QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.
S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine
despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last
58 at Heinz Field!!!
(04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems
with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his
beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered
only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle
blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing
the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays
in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have
a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.
(08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)
WRITE-IN GAME
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 [Schedule re-arrangement due to due
Hurricane Ike]—Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with
only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first
half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to
come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t
count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,
Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27
*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,
Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t
seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the
year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee
needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before
taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,
which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the
spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how
they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)
COLLEGE ANALYSIS
KEY RELEASES---
MINNESOTA by 12 over Purdue
VANDERBILT by 20 over Duke
GEORGIA TECH by 28 over Virginia
TULSA by 32 over Ucf (Sunday, Oct. 26)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23
*Auburn 20 - WEST VIRGINIA 19—Star sr. QB Pat White should be back in
action for West Virginia. Still, TY’s Mountaineer offense was already looking
very mediocre (especially in comparison with prolific strike forces of last few
seasons) before White sat out 17-6 home win over woeful Syracuse on Oct. 11.
Extra week of prep no panacea for wayward Auburn attack. But time enough for
some tweaking by veteran HC Tuberville after jettisoning o.c. Tony Franklin,
and speedy Tiger defense (only 13 ppg) matches up well against WV’s spread option. TV—
ESPN (First Meeting)
*AIR FORCE 26 - New Mexico 24—We’re sure New Mexico enjoyed a rare
chance to imitate Tom Osborne’s old Nebraska teams when running the ball
down San Diego State’s throat last week. Dominating a capable Air Force
bunch is an entirely different matter, but Lobos also on ascent because OL
jelling and QB situation no longer dire with RS frosh Gruner getting comfy at
controls. Rocky Long’s unorthodox 3-3-5 “D” might unnerve Falcs’ exciting but
green frosh QB Jefferson.
(07-N. MEX. 34-A. Force 31...18-18 A.49/212 N.48/156 N.16/28/1/169 A.11/18/0/110 N.1 A.5)
(07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24...SR: Air Force 14-10)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
*Boise State 25 - SAN JOSE STATE 23—Boise’s recent trips to San Jose
have been harrowing to say the least (narrow escapes in ‘04 & ‘06 almost
scuttled unbeaten Bronco reg.-season marks). Don’t expect anything different
this time, not with Spartan “D” shutting off passing lanes with lockdown CBs
Owens & Francies, likely forcing Boise RS frosh QB K. Moore to “matriculate”
downfield in more conservative manner. Note Dick Tomey’s bunch on 9-game
home cover streak! CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-BOISE ST. 42-Sjsu 7...B.23-13 B.31/144 S.32/98 B.32/41/1/290 S.16/30/0/100 B.1 S.0)
(07-BSU -25' 42-7 06-Bsu -13' 23-20 05-BSU -30' 38-21...SR: Boise State 8-0)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
ARMY 24 - Louisiana Tech 19—La Tech hasn’t been traveling well since the
days George W. Bush’s approval ratings were near 50% (Bulldogs 0-3 vs.
number on road TY, 13-35-2 vs. line away since early ‘01!), so don’t mind giving
ascending Army a look. “Back to the future” theme playing well at West Point,
as Black Knights have covered 4 straight since Stan Brock switched to option
on full-time basis, and robust “D” (ranks respectable 40th) excellent by academy
standards. (First Meeting)
MARYLAND 28 - North Carolina State 24—Although “buy” signs on the
Terrapins were abundant in last week’s impressive beatdown of ranked Wake,
desultory Maryland has been an exceedingly poor investment as a favorite
recently, covering just 3 of last 15 laying points. With resourceful RS frosh QB
R. Wilson making plays for N.C. State offense and Wolfpack defense getting
healthier, compelled to back dog.
(07-Mary. 37-N. CAR. ST. 0...M.22-14 M.49/249 N.16/10 N.26/45/1/240 M.20/25/0/217 M.0 N.0)
(07-Mary. +2 37-0 06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14...SR: EVEN 30-30-4)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 26 - Wake Forest 20—Tough to predict which platoon will
prevail in matchup of young, banged-up Hurricane defense vs. regressing
Wake offense that has mustered just 1 TD in first 3 ACC games. Can
precocious Miami true frosh QB Jacory Harris (4 TDP, 1 TDR, 2 ints. during last
week’s win at Duke) avoid major mistakes against Deacons’ ball-hawking
veteran stop unit (20 takeaways)? TV-ESPNU
(05-Miami-Florida -16' 47-17...SR: Miami-Florida 5-3)
Northwestern 31 - INDIANA 17—Seven straight spread losses and a 10-
ranked pass defense are enough to keep Indiana on our “go-against” list.
Hoosier QB Lewis (ankle injury) has just 1 TDP and only 39 YR in the last 3
games, so no end in sight for Indiana slide. Northwestern has already won
tougher road games than this at Duke and Iowa, so QB Bacher and a solid corps
of receivers should hurt Hoosier 2ndary.
(07-N’WESTERN 31-Ind. 28...N.26-17 N.46/165 I.27/94 N.27/34/3/291 I.18/28/1/204 N.0 I.1)
(07-NORTHWESTERN +2' 31-28...SR: Northwestern 42-33-1)
***Minnesota 31 - PURDUE 19—Rested Minnesota has covered 5
straight and owns one of most improved defenses in the nation. Gopher d.c.
Ted Roof has a bend-but-don’t break unit that’s generating lots of turnovers
(Gophers rank 1st in TO margin; Purdue 101st). Not sure reeling Purdue
capable of moving ball consistently, considering Boiler QB Painter has been a
disappointment in ’08, with 9 ints. & just 4 TD passes in last 6 games, and has
apparently lost the confidence of HC Tiller. Minny’s Weber-to-Decker combo
too much Purdue 2ndary that bee hurt by lesser QBs.
(07-Purd. 45-MINN. 31...P.28-25 M.37/232 P.33/166 P.33/48/1/338 M.23/44/1/237 P.0 M.3)
(07-Purd. -14 45-31 06-PURD. +2' 27-21 05-MINN. -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-30-3)
NORTH CAROLINA 23 - Boston College 16—Carolina trying not to let gutwrenching
loss at Virginia (Heels never trailed until Cavs punched in
game-winning overtime TD) linger, while resilient BC has put together 4 straight
victories. Tough to ignore Eagle QB Crane’s carelessness with rock (3 ints., 2
returned for TDs, during win over Va. Tech), however, especially considering
that UNC leads nation with 14 “picks.” Heel soph RB Draughn (338 YR last 3
games) is top ground threat on field.
(05-NORTH CAROLINA +4' 16-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Cincinnati 20 - CONNECTICUT 17—Acknowledge that well-coached UConn
has been profitable play as host, covering 15 of last 20 at Hartford. Still,
reluctant to buck money-making Cincy mentor Brian Kelly, who’s been a 68% play
vs. spread over last few seasons. Bearcats’ vastly superior receivers & greater
speed on defense held sway in LY’s meeting. Same story this time around.
(07-CINCY 27-Conn. 3...Ci.18-11 Ci.39/144 Co.22/22 Ci.21/33/0/276 Co.18/37/1/182 Ci.0 Co.0)
(07-CINCY -6' 27-3 06-Cincy -4' 26-23 05-CINCY +7' 28-17...SR: Cincinnati 4-0)
Illinois 28 - WISCONSIN 21—Wisconsin is broken, and we’re not convinced
HC Bielema can fix things in one week. Offensive failures continued against
Iowa last week, as Badgers’ move to Dustin Sherer at QB didn’t help (17 of 34
passing, 174 YP, 2 ints. & 0 TDPs). Ankle injury to top rusher P.J. Hill
compounds Bielema’s problems, and Wisconsin is just 7-8 SU in last 15
games. Conversely, Illinois offense exploding as QB Juice Williams (1043 YP,
8 TDP, 3 rush TDs & only 1 int. in the last 3 games) and WR Rejus Benn (136
ypg receiving in last 4) clicking, while highly-touted frosh RB Jason Ford had
172 YR against Indiana.
(07-ILL. 31-Wis. 26...W.28-18 I.44/289 W.31/127 W.27/49/2/392 I.12/19/0/121 I.0 W.0)
(07-ILL. -2' 31-26 06-WIS. -21 30-24 05-Wis. -20' 41-24...SR: Illinois 36-33-7)
PITTSBURGH 24 - Rutgers 10—In first 6 games vs. FBS foes, Rutgers’
reeling Ray Rice-less offense mustered just 9 TDs, while Scarlet Knight stop
unit failed to snag a single “takeaway.” Improving Panthers ride star soph RB
McCoy (447 YR & 5 TDs in last 3 games) & stingy defense to convincing victory.
(07-RUT. 20-Pitt 16...P.14-13 R.40/111 P.41/110 P.14/28/1/158 R.5/17/2/108 R.2 P.1)
(07-RUTGERS -12 20-16 06-Rutgers +6' 20-10 05-RUTGERS P 37-29...SR: Pittsburgh 19-6)
*Texas A&M 27 - IOWA STATE 24—ISU (five straight losses) has the
advantage of defense and the home field, but the Cyclone offense is slowing to
a walk (10 & 7 points last two games). The A&M defense (34.4 ppg), however,
continues to betray the development the Aggie offense has been showing under
former Packer coach Mike Sherman. ISU only 3-7 last 10 when favored.
(05-Iowa State +11 42-14...SR: Texas A&M 7-1)
FLORIDA 42 - Kentucky 12—Though UK finally showed offensive
competence in 21-20 comeback Lexington victory vs. Arkansas, prefer
refreshed UF, which has covered 8 of past 10 in “The Swamp.” Gator o.c.
Mullen has found the right formula by using both speedy true frosh Demps & RS
frosh Rainey (both prep WRs) in backfield (combined 195 YR vs. LSU!). With
UF’s previously over-thinking QB Tebow heeding advice of Mullen, who said
“Quit acting like a professor and play like a guy who won the Hesiman Trophy,”
Wildcats highly-ranked defense fails toughest test to date.
(07-Fla. 45-KY. 37...K.29-21 F.37/171 K.35/97 K.35/50/0/415 F.18/26/0/256 F.0 K.0)
(07-Florida -7 45-37 06-FLORIDA -26' 26-7 05-Florida -23 49-28...SR: Florida 41-17)
*Mississippi 28 - ARKANSAS 20—UA might suffer a “hangover effect” after
leading for 58 mins. of painful 21-20 setback at Kentucky, so side with
rejuvenated Ole Miss, primed to snap 4-game series losing skein (outscored
82-11 L2YS). Rebels dynamic QB Snead more likely to make game-changing
plays than Hog counterpart C. Dick (ugly 11 of 29 for 94 yds. vs. UK), especially
with hot RB M. Smith cooled off by Ole Miss’ stingy front 7 (just 3.2 ypc; limited
Bama to a meager 107 YR).
(07-Ark. 44-MISS. 8...A.23-20 A.54/293 M.34/112 M.14/34/4/182 A.12/18/1/144 A.0 M.0)
(07-Ark. -5' 44-8 06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17...SR: Arkansas 30-23-1)
BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 14—Teams headed in opposite
directions, as 7-0 Ball State seeking MAC title, while EMU looking like the team
that’s dropped 15 of last 21 spread decisions (How long can Jeff Genyk avoid
the axe?). Defensive contrasts dramatic, as Cardinals rank 16th in scoring “D”
at 15 ppg, while Eagles are 101st. Main question is whether Nate Davis and highpowered
Ball State attack “get the number” before being replaced by reserves.
(07-Ball St. 38-E. MICH. 16...B.24-11 B.42/153 E.28/107 B.19/39/0/306 E.16/26/1/155 B.0 E.0)
(07-Bsu -4 38-16 06-BSU -5 38-20 05-Bsu +6 26-25...SR: Ball State 27-20-2)
BYU 47 - Unlv 17—BYU’s BCS hopes abruptly ended in stinging 32-7 loss at
TCU, but expect angry Cougs to vent frustration vs. defensively-outmanned
UNLV (yielding 32 ppg), which is 2-11 vs. spread last 13 as MWC visitor.
BYU’s prolific QB Hall (69%, 20 TDs, 6 ints.) easily dissects inviting Rebel
2ndary (11 TDs, only 3 ints.), totally untested by Air Force option last week.
Resilient Cougs (6-2 vs. spread last 8 following SU loss) 10-4 vs. spread in
Provo since ‘06.
(07-Byu 24-UNLV 14...B.26-14 B.45/227 U.25/96 B.21/33/3/214 U.16/26/1/121 B.1 U.0)
(07-Byu -11 24-14 06-BYU -28' 52-7 05-Byu -12 55-14...SR: BYU 12-3)
***VANDERBILT 34 - Duke 14—Since Vandy might have big trouble
reaching that elusive 6th win with a brutal Nov. slate, now’s the time to endorse
hungry ‘Dores stepping waaayy down in class. Vandy’s mobile QB M. Adams
& RB Hawkins (399 YR, 4.2 ypc) burn a Duke defense feeling “bad vibes” after
allowing 35 2nd-H pts. in 49-31 loss vs. Miami. ‘Dores TO-creating stop unit (17
takeaways; 13 ints.!) helps set up favorable field position vs. Blue Devils, on
road for only 2nd time TY. (06-Vanderbilt -8 45-28...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)
Rice 37 - TULANE 34—Sure, high-stepping Tulane jr. RB André Anderson
(185 ypg rushing in last 4) will keep potent Rice attack idling on sidelines for
extended stretches. But quick-trigger Owl sr. QB Clement (6 more TDP last
week, 72 in last 2+ seasons!) doesn’t usually need much time to strike pay dirt.
(07-Tulane 45-RICE 31...19-19 T.54/267 R.15/23 R.35/55/0/353 T.11/22/1/188 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulane +2' 45-31 06-TULANE +2' 38-24 05-RICE -1 42-34...SR: Rice 15-14-1)
Fresno State 38 - UTAH STATE 24—Despite the best efforts of exciting soph
QB Borel, Utah State remains so deficient in so many other areas (such as
109th-ranked “D”) that it’s risky recommending Utags at almost any price. But
disappointing Fresno not providing a lot of value either (no covers last 5). And
with BCS dreams long since dashed, not sure we trust Bulldogs carrying heavy
lumber on road.
(07-FRES. ST. 38-Utah St. 27...F.23-20 F.47/255 U.38/155 U.18/26/0/214 F.13/18/1/131 F.1 U.1)
(07-FSU -20' 38-27 06-USU +26' 13-12 05-FSU -33 53-21...SR: Fresno State 12-10-1)
NAVY 34 - Smu 30—Contrast in styles of these two as stark as the differences
between Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes. But Navy option not operating at peak
efficiency if QB Kaipo’s hamstring injury continues to linger. Meanwhile,
SMU quietly becoming more competitive (no spread losses last 4), and back
door wide open for Bo Levi Mitchell and June Jones’ evolving Dallas version
of the Red Gun.
(DNP...SR: SMU 7-5)
Alabama 24 - TENNESSEE 13—While embroiled HC Fulmer’s growing
legion of critics temporarily silenced following 34-3 romp vs. offensively-iffy
MSU, they return following Vols anticipated 4th loss TY vs. an SEC contender.
Fast-starting Tide (outscoring foes 95-3 in 1st Q!) likely to force UT (outscored
37-0 in 1st Q) to be in early catch-up mode. Doubt immature QB Stephens (just
23 of 50 L2 weeks) can close deficit vs. stout Tide defense (15 ppg, 2.3 ypc)
hell-bent to play 4 intense Qs after HC Saban has bemoaned “complacent
efforts” following intermission in recent victories.
(07-ALA. 41-Tenn. 17...A.21-19 A.38/147 T.19/103 A.32/46/0/363 T.23/38/2/259 A.0 T.0)
(07-ALA. +1 41-17 06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3...SR: Alabama 45-38-7)
*ARIZONA STATE 29 - Oregon 24—Native son John McCain might wish he
could have taken a week off as did ASU, which hopes last week’s “bye” allowed
Dennis Erickson and o.c. Rich Olson a chance to tune up laboring “O” in Sun
Devil garage. Banged-up Oregon also welcomed its own “bye” and should have
QB Roper available once more. But if off week indeed allowed Rudy Carpenter’s
sore ankle to heal, Sun Devils might start to resemble their form from ‘07 and the
first few weeks of this season when attack was popping.
(07-ORE. 35-Ariz. St. 23...A.25-22 O.41/200 A.41/110 A.22/37/1/379 O.15/26/0/200 O.1 A.1)
(07-ORE. -8 35-23 06-Ore. +1' 48-13 05-Ore. +10 31-17...SR: Arizona State 16-12)
CALIFORNIA 30 - Ucla 20—UCLA not scoring many style points these days.
But this isn’t Dancing With The Stars, and sage o.c. Norm Chow has juco QB
Craft making just enough plays to keep Bruins within earshot most weeks.
Meanwhile, Jeff Tedford’s QB juggling act showing signs of backfiring (both
Longshore & Riley erratic), and top Cal weapon RB Best could be compromised
by nagging arm injury. Heavy technicals in UCLA’s favor (Bruins 14-2 last 16 as
dog, and 37-18 overall vs. number since early ‘04; Bears 4-15-1 last 20 laying
DDs). REG. TV—ABC
(07-UCLA 30-Cal. 21...U.22-19 U.45/183 C.30/67 C.22/34/3/232 U.19/28/0/190 U.2 C.1)
(07-UCLA +2' 30-21 06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40...SR: UCLA 49-28-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 26 - Kent State 24—Can’t lay many points with Miami-O. side
that’s dropped 8 straight as a favorite. Return to action of Kent RB Eugene
Jarvis (50 YR & 2 recs. in limited duty vs. Ohio) and a week off should be enough
to pry a good performance out of Golden Flashes. Miami offense doesn’t scare
anybody, as RedHawk QB switch from vet Raudabaugh to RS frosh Belton
netted a win at Bowling Green, but Belton completed only 11 of 23 passes for
129 yards. Kent won’t be surprised by Miami true frosh Jay Taylor (127 YR in
first extended duty vs. BG).
(07-Miami 20-KENT ST. 13...K.25-16 K.45/203 M.36/101 M.16/22/0/310 K.19/33/2/260 M.2 K.1)
(07-Miami +9 20-13 06-Ksu +12' 16-14 05-Miami -6' 27-10...SR: Miami-Ohio 28-20-2)
***GEORGIA TECH 35 - Virginia 7—Three straight home wins have put
surprising Virginia & beleaguered HC Groh back in thick of ACC title chase. But
Cavs now hitting the road, where they’re just 9-25 vs. spread in last 34 as true
visitor. Facing Tech’s terrific DL a tough assignment for still-learning UVa soph
QB Verica, and no better bankroll buddy than new Jacket & former Navy mentor
Paul Johnson (5-0 against line TY). TV—ESPNU
(07-VA. 28-Ga. Tech 23...V.20-17 G.31/121 V.42/121 V.20/35/1/233 G.17/40/1/230 V.2 G.1)
(07-VA. +3' 28-23 06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17...SR: Virginia 15-14-1)
TEXAS 38 - Oklahoma State 31—Rare deep-in-the-season matchup of
teams undefeated both SU and vs. the spread. The public unloaded on
Missouri at UT last week, but Mack Brown deserves credit for keeping his team
from “eating the cheese” in the trap of a possible letdown after the Horns’ upset
of Oklahoma. OSU has a recent history of wild shootouts vs. the Longhorns,
and QB Zac Robinson (70%, 14 TDs , 4 ints.) is playing nearly as well as UT’s
McCoy. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Texas 38-OK. ST. 35...O.29-27 T.42/307 O.45/164 O.30/42/0/430 T.20/27/3/282 T.0 O.1)
(07-Texas -2' 38-35 06-TEXAS -18 36-10 05-Texas -37' 47-28...SR: Texas 20-2)
LSU 26 - Georgia 20—Now that o.c. Crowton has expanded playbook for
strong-armed, fast-learning QB Lee, support loaded, deep LSU, which is 41-4
SU in Tiger Stadium since 2002 (last two losses in OT!). UGA QB Stafford finds
no comfort zone behind green OL (all frosh-soph) hard-pressed to slow down an
unleashed Tiger pass rush (season-best 6 sacks at S. Carolina). LSU’s blazing 5-
5 return man Holliday (24-yd. avg. on punts) can score any time, while undervalued
RB K. Scott (6.4 ypc) not outdueled by Dawgs more celebrated RB Moreno.
(05-GEORGIA +1' 34-14 at Atlanta...SR: LSU 14-11-1)
Oklahoma 47 - KANSAS STATE 23—Despite all its firepower (47 ppg), OU
has failed to cover its last two games, going 1-1 SU, with oddsmakers writing
“pointspread checks” the Sooner defense couldn’t cash with its allowances of
45 points vs. Texas and 31 vs. Kansas. But it’s hard to go against the Sooners
with their solid OL and big-play offense when juco-laden K-State has been
scrambling for a running game and defensive stability to help support powerful
QB Josh Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints.). (05-OKL. -7 43-21...SR: Okla. 67-17-4)
Michigan State 24 - MICHIGAN 23—Both of these teams a bit shellshocked
after suffering blowout-losses last week. Not quite ready to lay points at Ann
Arbor with MSU side that hasn’t won there since 1990. Spartans have
challenges, as QB Hoyer left the Ohio St. game with a hand injury and has a
possible concussion, while Michigan run defense yields just 3.3 ypc.
Wolverines played one good half of football last week, which is more than can
be said for the Spartans. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 28-MICH. ST. 24...U.18-17 S.43/191 U.30/100 U.18/33/1/211 S.19/35/1/161 U.0 S.0)
(07-Mich. -3' 28-24 06-MICH. -15' 31-13 05-Mich. +5 34-31 (OT)...SR: Michigan 67-28-5)
FLORIDA STATE 24 - Virginia Tech 23—“Technicals” clearly favor taking
points with Tech, as Hokies still 17-4 vs. spread last 21 as visitor (even after
dropping decision at BC last week), while Seminoles have been decidedly subpar
as favorite over last several seasons. Fundamentally, however, FSU has the
best RB on field in sr. Antone Smith (335 YR & 8 TDs in last 3 games) and the QB
most likely to do damage through air in blossoming soph Ponder. REG. TV—ABC
(07-VA. TECH 40-Fla. St. 21...V.17-13 V.54/188 F.28/116 V.11/19/1/207 F.13/33/2/151 V.0 F.1)
(07-TECH -6' 40-21 05-Fsu +14 27-22 at Jacksonville...SR: Florida State 21-11-1)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 37 - Bowling Green 23—With Huskies’ veteran
defense (only 11 ppg last 3) clamping down and their offense getting a spark
from return of resourceful RS frosh QB Harnish (3 TDP last week), the only thing
preventing a strong recommendation on NIU is recent profitability of Bowling
Green (13-5 vs. spread last 18 as visitor) on road.
(DNP...SR: Bowling Green 10-5)
New Mexico State 42 - IDAHO 20—After NMS’ record-breaking QB Holbrook
tossed two “picks” for TDs in 31-14 home loss vs. SJS, look for the future 6-5
NFL draftee to bounce back big-time vs. “invisible” Idaho defense (50 ppg) that
lost emotional leader (if they had one) SS Keo to season-ending injury. Woeful
Vandals gain no inspiration in Kibbie Dome, where they’ve failed to cover 9 straight.
(07-N. MEX. ST. 45-Idaho 31...N.26-25 I.43/234 N.24/88 N.36/49/0/404 I.19/35/2/212 N.0 I.1)
(07-NMS -9 45-31 06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-4)
*TCU 41 - Wyoming 3—No truth to the rumor that Wyo is so desperate to find
a QB that HC Glenn inquired if Joe The Plumber had any eligibility remaining.
Not that Joe would fare much worse than regressing Karsten Sween or the other
QBs that Cowboys have used to no avail in recent weeks. Hot TCU pretty
reliable laying heavy lumber at Fort Worth (7-1 last 8 laying DDs) now that
passing QB Dalton back in lineup. A better question is what to do if presented
with a 3½ “Wyo only total” on this game?
(07-WYO. 24-Tcu 21...22-22 W.51/232 T.43/134 T.22/39/1/210 W.12/26/1/134 W.1 T.2)
(07-WYOMING -3 24-21 06-TCU -6' 26-3 05-Tcu +7 28-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Central Michigan 34 - TOLEDO 21—CMU impressed by beating Western
Michigan last week without MAC MVP QB LeFevour at the controls. Chip
backup QB Brian Brunner completed 20 of 28 passes for 346 yards in relief, and
frosh Brian Schroeder made the most of his opportunity, rushing for 106 yards
and 2 TDs. Toledo defense ranks 104th and has yielded 40 ppg in losing 3 home
games. Rocket QB Opelt and WR S. Williams can’t trade scores with
Chippewas for long.
(07-C. MICH. 52-Tol. 31...C.28-21 C.42/218 T.36/101 T.26/42/0/381 C.22/32/0/244 C.0 T.1)
(07-CMU -3 52-31 06-Cmu +2' 42-20 05-CMU +7' 21-17...SR: Toledo 17-16-3)
South Florida 28 - LOUISVILLE 27—Substantial edge at QB for visiting USF
& its irrepressible jr. triggerman Grothe, as strong-armed Louisville sr.
counterpart Cantwell’s lack of mobility a major concern against hard-charging
Bull front 7 led by sackmeister DE Selvie. No surprise, however, if elusive RS
frosh RB V. Anderson (663 YR) and improved defense & special teams (4 TDs
last 2 games) keep Cards close.
(07-S. FLA. 55-Lvl. 17...S.26-23 S.49/230 L.26/130 L.24/49/4/273 S.19/27/1/251 S.0 L.3)
(07-USF -9 55-17 06-LVL. -17 31-8 05-USF +20 45-14...SR: South Florida 3-2)
NEBRASKA 34 - Baylor 20—After apologizing to the state of Nebraska for his
team’s performance in its 52-17 home loss vs. Missouri, Bo Pelini’s team hung
tough in 37-31 OT loss at Texas Tech and then routed ISU 35-7 in Ames. Baylor
QB Robert Griffin a marvel, but lack of a supporting ground game making things
difficult for “Rambo” on the road.
(05-Nebraska -2 23-14...SR: Nebraska 9-1)
KANSAS 34 - Texas Tech 28—TT (7-0), off to its best start in 32 years, is
beginning a stretch of four straight games vs. upper-echelon Big XII foes. With
Brian Batch (491 YR) leading the way, the usually pass-happy Red Raiders
have topped 100 YR in every game TY, out-rushing 6 of their 7 foes! The 2008
Jayhawks (sacked 5 times last week) miss the power runs of Brandon
McAnderson, but their 10-1 spread mark their last 11 at home is impressive.
(05-TEXAS TECH -18 30-17...SR: Texas Tech 9-1)
*MISSOURI 41 - Colorado 13—After being serenaded for 20 minutes by
chants of “o-ver-RA-ted” at Austin last week, expect HC Gary Pinkel, QB Chase
Daniel and the Tigers to dig deep back at home. MU has rushed for only 64 &
30 yards, respectively, in its consecutive losses vs. Oklahoma State & Texas.
But CU just 4-12-1 vs. the spread its last 17 away and is juggling QBs in search
of offense.
(07-Mo. 55-COLO. 10...M.25-7 M.42/169 C.30/84 M.27/45/1/429 C.14/28/1/112 M.0 C.2)
(07-Mo. -3' 55-10 06-MO. -15 28-13 05-COLO. -12 41-12...SR: Missouri 38-31-3)
*Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20—Favor red-hot Penn State, as Nittany
Lions have a QB edge with sr. Daryll Clark (18th in pass efficiency; 11 TDPs, 8
rush TDs) over still-learning true frosh Terrelle Pryor. Argument can also be
made that Paterno has better players in the pits. Penn State protects and
rushes the passer better than the Buckeyes, and the Nittany Lions allow more
than a half-yard less per carry than the OSU defense. Paterno 0-7 SU and vs.
number last 7 visits to the “Big Horshoe,” but he’d dropped 9 straight to Michigan prior
to last week’s game against the Wolverines. REG. TV—ABC
(07-Osu 37-PSU 17...O.24-14 O.48/200 P.23/139 O.19/26/1/253 P.16/26/1/124 O.0 P.1)
(07-Osu -3' 37-17 06-OSU -17 28-6 05-PSU +3' 17-10...SR: Ohio State 12-11)
*Southern Miss 31 - MEMPHIS 23—True, visiting Eagles have dropped their
last 4 games SU & vs. spread. But backing Memphis a very dicey proposition
now that Tigers likely down to third-string QB Toney (see Special Ticker).
(07-Mem. 29-USM 26...M.27-16 U.38/147 M.26/26 M.35/49/2/396 U.12/18/1/159 M.0 U.0)
(07-Memp. +16' 29-26 06-Usm -7 42-21 05-Memp. +7 24-22...SR: Southern Miss 37-20-1)
*Notre Dame 32 - WASHINGTON 16—Not completely sure that Ty
Willingham will still be on the job to face his old team when this one kicks off
(new U-Dub AD Steve Woodward under pressure to hit “eject” button before
season concludes). But with Jake Locker sidelined, reliever Fouch erratic, and
Huskies apt to wave the white flag at any time, we’d rather take our chances with
Notre Dame, especially since Charlie Weis’ improved OL should provide Jimmy
Clausen all day to throw. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-Notre Dame -13 36-17...SR: Notre Dame 6-0)
*Colorado State 32 - SAN DIEGO STATE 15—SDSU’s prospects are so
bleak that we doubt even CNBC’s Jim Cramer would be interested in “buying”
Aztecs at current depressed price levels. CSU not a prototypical road favorite,
but Rams have at least displayed some offensive competence with RB G.
Johnson & QB Farris. Note SDSU continues en route to historic stat exacta (last
nationally in both rush “O” and rush “D”!).
(07-Sds 24-COL. ST. 20...S.19-16 S.44/148 C.39/139 S.14/27/0/230 C.14/27/1/188 S.1 C.1)
(07-Sds +13' 24-20 06-SDS +1 17-6 05-Sds +7' 30-10...SR: San Diego State 15-12)
*Southern Cal 30 - ARIZONA 22—Now that SC facing a functioning offense
instead of the injury-plagued imitations it has seen in recent weeks, Trojans
might actually have to work for a full 60 minutes. Remember, Mike Stoops’ UA
teams have proven competitive lately (covering last 3) vs. Troy, and plenty of
competence in o.c. Sonny Dykes’ Texas Tech-like spread that uncovered a new
weapon last week in frosh RB Antolin (149 YR vs. Cal). Stoops’ scheming on “D”
has held Trojans to far under normal production in last 2 meetings (SC only
scored 20 on both occasions).
(07-S. CAL 20-Ariz. 13...S.19-13 S.43/146 A.16/22 A.30/43/0/233 S.19/31/2/130 S.0 A.3)
(07-USC -21 20-13 06-Usc -21 20-3 05-USC -37' 42-21...SR: Southern Cal 25-6)
*Nevada 29 - HAWAII 22—With QB Kaepernick likely at full attention after
disciplinary benching during 1st Q of last week’s game vs. Utah State, properlyfocused
Nevada has enough weapons to outscore post June Jones-version of
Hawaii Red Gun. New Warrior QB Funaki more likely to cause damage with his
legs than his arm, which won’t catch Wolf Pack “D” by surprise after chasing
Utags’ mobile Diondre Borel last week in Reno.
(07-Hawaii 28-NEV. 26...H.21-19 N.48/216 H.21/51 H.35/49/0/379 N.9/20/1/134 H.1 N.2)
(07-Hawaii -6 28-26 06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28...SR: EVEN 6-6)
ADDED GAMES
*MISSISSIPPI STATE 24 - Middle Tenn. St. 16—Scrappy MTS suffered 2nd-
H meltdown (outscored 27-6 after intermission) in 42-23 loss at L’Ville, but still
reluctant to lay DDs with offensively-shaky MSU (12 ppg), admittedly dropping
in class in midst of murderous SEC slate. Blue Raiders clever QB Craddock &
speedy WRs could hit enough plays to stay within DD impost of a Bulldog squad
0-4 as Starkville chalk since ‘05. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(DNP...SR: Miss. St. 2-0)
*LA.-MONROE 27 - Florida Atlantic 22—Charlie Weatherbie didn’t make
Monroe backers very happy by showing unusual compassion vs. outclassed
North Texas last week (Warhawks shut down their “O” after racing to 35-6
halftime lead). But we’ve seen more competence from QB Lancaster and the
ULM attack than from counterparts at FAU, now forced to rely on infantry
diversions (RB Pierre 192 YR at WKU) in light of QB Rusty Smith’s ‘08 struggles.
(07-La.-Mon. 33-FAU 30 (OT)...F.25-21 L.47/207 F.33/128 F.35/55/2/317 L.23/36/1/201 L.1 F.0)
(07-Ulm +6 33-30 (OT) 06-Fau +14 21-19 05-Ulm +7' 28-21...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)
*Troy 48 - NORTH TEXAS 16—Not that impressed by North Texas scoring
final 20 spread-covering points at La.-Monroe last week, as moribund Mean Green
(outscored 324-81 in first 3 Qs TY!) rarely positioned to sneak in “back door.”
(07-TROY 45-N. Texas 7...T.21-13 T.35/137 N.35/26 T.28/43/4/356 N.23/41/1/179 T.3 N.1)
(07-TROY -22' 45-7 06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 4-1)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*** *TULSA 56 - Ucf 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend
to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this
matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering
UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut
Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57
ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28
*Buffalo vs. OHIO—Check our website at www.goldsheet.com for details on
this one!! CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-BUF. 31-Ohio 10...B.22-18 B.56/251 O.32/90 O.23/41/2/186 B.11/20/0/146 B.0 W.0)
(07-BUFFALO +4 31-10 06-OHIO -17' 42-7 05-Ohio -4' 34-20...SR: Ohio 9-5)
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 10 October 23-27, 2008 •
SELECTIONS: October 23-27, 2008
College Football
Saturday, October 25th, 2008
Army (-1½) over Louisiana Tech
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Having changed to a triple option offense in the offseason,
Army understandably struggled, losing their first four
games, but is now starting to get it. Against Temple, New
Hampshire, and Akron, Army averaged 179 yards rushing
on 3.3 yards per rush, but things really turned around in a
close loss to Texas A&M. The Cadets went for 280 yards
on the ground at 4.3 yards per carry in that one. And
since then, Army has cranked on the ground, averaging
317 yards on 6.0 yards per carry against Tulane, Eastern
Michigan, and Buffalo. They beat Tulane and Eastern
Michigan, and lost in OT Saturday to Buffalo. In that
Buffalo game, Army went for 320 yards on 54 carries, just
a shade under 6 yards per rush. And Buffalo’s head coach
was uniquely qualified to coach his team against the Army
offense, as Turner Gill was one of the premier triple-option
quarterbacks in the history of college football at Nebraska.
For Louisiana Tech, this is a “what are they doing here?”
kind of game. It’s one thing to be here in September, but
when you’ve already been to Honolulu and Boise so far this
season, how enthusiastic are you going to be on the bluff
overlooking the Hudson River in late October? In the midst
of your WAC schedule, do have the will do to what’s
necessary to win this game against such a unique offense?
The Bulldogs haven’t seen an option team this year, nor
did they see one last year. The triple option can be like
learning to play defense all over again, and how much
does Louisiana Tech really want to go to the wall to stop
it? How will Louisiana Tech’s defensive line feel late in the
game when fullback Colin Mooney at 5-10, 247 pounds,
plows into the line for the 50th time? He sets up RB
Wesley McMahand, who is only 5-6 but averages over 8
yards per carry. Louisiana Tech has decent run defense
stats, but the best running team they’ve played is Boise
(ranked 66th), everyone else they’ve played is ranked 85th
or higher.
Without the speed and athleticism of many opponents,
Army’s physical, intense defense, gives maximum effort on
every play. Opponents have been quoted as saying that
their intensity has been tough to match. Ross Jenkins is
the new quarterback for Louisiana Tech, and his first start
was Saturday night in a blowout win over Idaho, the worst
team in 1-A football. This is his first road start, and Michie
Stadium can be an intimidating environment, with the
wind, the noise from the Cadets, and the intensity of the
Army defense.
Army’s off a disappointing defeat. They had a pretty good (for the
level) Buffalo team beat in the fourth quarter, but a key turnover
helped lead to a 14-point Buffalo comeback and the result was a
27-24 loss to the Bulls in overtime. It can be tough to play a team
off a close defeat, especially an overtime game they should have
won, but these service academy kids have a lot of resiliency, and
the Black Knights will bring their A-game each and every week.
Lousiana Tech is happy with their blowout WAC win, has a big WAC
home game against Fresno next Saturday, and will be asking
themselves “what are we doing here?” when they realize that Army
is the team that wants this game more. Army by 9.
Cincinnati (pk) over @Connecticut
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Both of these teams most recently played Rutgers,
and played tight, low scoring games against the
Scarlet Knights. Before their bye week, Cincinnati
beat RU at home 13-10 without their top two QB’s.
Saturday, UConn went to Rutgers and lost 12-10
with one of their top quarterbacks, but they may not
have him Saturday. We’ll get to those details in a
bit. First let’s look at the nature of the Huskies. It
is always a little dangerous to go against
Connecticut, as the Huskies results on Saturday,
where they largely outplayed Rutgers but lost, are
the reverse of what is usually the case. In their last
15 games, Connecticut is 9-6, and in 5 of those 9
wins, they were outgained. They’re well coached,
opportunistic, and pretty good on special teams.
But some of those characteristics appear to be
disappearing. That’s what makes their loss to
Rutgers Saturday painful. Their special teams were
awful. They missed three FG’s, didn’t field a pair of
punts, and trying to turn a kickoff return into a big
play, got tackled on their own 1.
When they aren’t doing all the little things perfectly, they’re
really an average team. Kind of pedestrian on offense,
with a good running game but a very poor passing attack.
Starting QB Tyler Lorenzen is out with a broken foot. Zack
Frazer’s status is unclear after suffering a possible
concussion Saturday. The Huskies averaged 5.4 yards per
pass attempt heading into the Rutgers game, only 15
teams in all of Division 1-A were worse. But Frazer went
for 11.8 yards per attempt against that horrid Rutgers
secondary (allow over 9 yards per attempt on the season).
Much of the passing production came in the fourth quarter
while trailing. Frazer’s backup is a redshirt freshman.
Connecticut can run the ball fairly well, but they’ve scored
12 points or less against Temple, North Carolina, and now,
Rutgers. Against North Carolina and Rutgers the sloppy
Huskies combined for 17 penalties for 154 yards. That’s
not something that would have happened last year. Coach
Randy Edsall is taking some heat in Storrs for the penalties
and defending himself against unimaginative play calling.
Cincinnati’s quarterback position is the reverse of
Connecticut’s as it has been devastated by injuries but is
now getting healthier. Tony Pike will be back for this one.
Pike is completing over 8.3 yards per pass attempt with 6
TD’s and a single interception. Bearcats may have some
matchup advantages, as they beat UConn 27-3 last year on
yardage of 420-204. UConn has had a good defense in
recent years, but permit 5.5 yards per play against teams
that are less explosive than UC. Brian Kelly is an excellent
coach and he has an extra week to prepare his game plan
and look for weaknesses in his opponent. Bearcats are a
little bit of a stealth team. They were about to get some
national attention but then the QB’s got hurt and people
saw the ugly close loss against Rutgers and probably forgot
about them. Cincy is the better team and it shows here.
Cincinnati by 7.
Illinois (-1½) over @Wisconsin
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
For now Bret Bielema's job is plenty safe.
Despite losing both straight up and to the
spread four straight Big 10 games including
last Saturday's 38-16 loss to Iowa, Bielema has
the approval of the only voice that really
matters: Barry Alvarez. After a 48-7 loss to
Penn State two weeks ago Alvarez made a very
public defense of his coach. An AD's legacy is
determined by the coaches he hires and
Alvarez is going to give his guy every
opportunity to turn this around. Things could
get dicey though, if the Badgers don't go
bowling. You need six wins to qualify.
Wisconsin has three so far with five games left
to play. The final game is a gimme against Cal-
Poly SLO.
Wisconsin's problems can be traced to their
problems in the running game. Long a team
that has relied on smash mouth football the
Badgers are having problems pushing
opponents around. After a sound spanking of
Akron to open the season, the Badgers have
outrushed their six opponents since by just 45
yards. Wisconsin needs to dominate on the
ground because QB Allen Evridge is completing
less than 54% of his passes. And that is where
the biggest edge for the visiting Illini is. Illinois
is averaging just over 10 yards per pass
attempt, and on just the air attack alone my
stat model has Illinois favored by 15 points. If
Wisconsin jumps out to the early lead Juice
Williams has enough talent to bring Illinois
back. But if Illinois races in front, it is most
unlikely that Evridge has the goods to mount a
comeback.
Off their 55-13 win over Indiana I have a 291-
193 ATS momentum system on Illinois. Best
tech I have on this game is a negative 166-269
ATS system that plays against Wisky thanks to
their 0-4 mark inside the Big 10. This system is
8-16 ATS in 2008, including losers last
weekend on Colorado, Indiana, and the
Badgers themselves.
A lot of handicappers thought Bielema's 12-1 record
in 2006 was a fraud. Maybe it was. Since then the
Badgers have had problems against their better
opponents. They have covered just four of their last
fourteen against opponents with a winning record
and the Illini are 4-3. Wisconsin's fade continues.
Illinois by 10.
Mississippi (-4) over @Arkansas
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
This is a big game down in Fayetteville. The Hogs
can’t wait to payback Houston Nutt after leaving for
Mississippi. And this game has been dubbed the
“Nutt Bowl.” You’ll hear about it often this week
from the talking heads. But how much of that will
really have an effect on the outcome of this game?
And how much of it is really just hog wash by the
media looking at that angle to carry their stories all
week? Plenty. Because when you look at the
makeup of the current Arkansas team, you’ll see
that they are loaded with a ton of freshman. And
they never played for Nutt, so he’s had little (maybe
recruiting?) to zero affiliation with them. Most of
the talk isn’t coming from the players, but the
reporters. And after what happened last week at
Kentucky, the Arkansas players have a lot more to
worry about than Houston Nutt.
Arkansas blew a win at Kentucky. They held a 20-7
fourth quarter lead, but lost 21-20 after allowing a
touchdown pass with just over 2 minutes to go in
the game. And that loss will be extremely difficult
for them to get over. “This is probably the lowest of
the lows that we’ve experienced as a team this
year,” All-American center Jonathan Luigs said. “And
then to give it away like that is a tough one to
swallow. It’s probably going to test the character
and integrity of this team, how we’re going to
bounce back.” And they’ll have to bounce back
without their best offensive player who has carried
their production. Junior running back Michael Smith
left the Kentucky game with a concussion, and his
return here doesn’t look good according to head
coach Bobby Petrino: “It’s scary because we don’t
know how long he’ll be out with that. It’s a shame
because he was playing his heart out, doing a great
job running the ball, catching the ball.” In fact,
after Smith left the game, the Arkansas offense had
three drives that totaled 11 yards on 13 plays.
Smith had 253 all-purpose yards by himself. If the
SEC’s leading rusher is out, Arkansas will have no
chance at matching points with Mississippi.
Ole Miss lost another close one last week at Alabama. The
24-20 loss looks good, but the Rebels trailed by 21 (24-3)
at the half. We won with them on the late phones, and we
got a fortunate and inspired second half performance. And
that’s what is so good about Houston Nutt. His kids don’t
quit on him, and he knows that. “Tell you what we do
have, we've got some fighters and some guys that are
really believing," Nutt said. "If they keep doing that, good
things are going to happen." The Rebels offense should be
able to score at will on the worst defense in the SEC.
Arkansas has allowed opposing teams to score on 18 of 22
possessions including 14 touchdowns inside the red zone.
And even though the Rebels defense has been equally
awful in that category, Arkansas may not get too many
chances if Smith doesn’t suit up. While Arkansas is on the
improve, they are just in a bad spot off the blown lead last
week and the potential of their best offensive player being
out. Mississippi by 10.
Duke (+9½) over @Vanderbilt
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
David Cutlcliffe rescue of the Duke football program
was big news a few weeks ago, but since then Duke
has lost badly to Georgia Tech and Miami and the
bloom is off the rose. But let’s take a look at both
their losses. Georgia Tech simply creamed the Blue
Devils, but when Paul Johnson’s option offense gets
rolling, that can happen some time. People realize
that, and that’s why there was significant support
for Duke in the betting markets last week. That
underdog money looked pretty good early in the
third quarter when Duke led Miami 24-10, but the
game got away from Duke in a barrage of dropped
passes, missed assignments, and other mistakes,
with Miami winning 49-31. Leading receiver Eron
Riley dropped four balls, to the great consternation
of David Cutcliffe. Coach Cutcliffe will have his
teams full attention this week, as he was very
displeased with the effort in the 4th quarter. “We
stopped playing in the 4th quarter,” said the coach.
But we’re willing to forgive the loss, and see it as
something to bounce back from. Miami is a team of
lighting-quick high school All Americans who also
scored a lot of points against Florida State. They’re
improving rapidly and Duke was competitive for
most of the game. Miami had non-dominant edges
in first downs (23-19) and total yards (420-331).
The Blue Devlis didn’t just get rolled. They were in
the game for a long time. Things are different at
Duke than they used to be.
Vandy is not a team that is poised to take advantage
of Duke’s thin defense. The Commodores have
done very little offensively since the first two weeks
of the season. Their 131 passing yards against
Georgia were only the second time all year that
Vandy has cracked 100 yards passing. They were
outgained for the fifth time in six games. In wins
they have been outgained by 100 yards against
South Carolina, by 63 against Rice, by 183 against
Ole’ Miss. Against punchless Mississipppi State they
were outgained 247-107. Though a win here gets
them bowl eligible, this is still a flat spot on the
schedule, the only game in a string of 8 that is
against a non-conference foe. They are far less
experienced than Duke, returning only 9 starters to
Duke’s 16.
Remember that since Duke waxed Virginia 31-3
three weeks ago, UVA has won three games.
Duke’s defense has shown some vulnerability in the
past two games, but is Vandy the team to cash in on
it? This Vanderbilt team does not fit the profile of a
significant favorite, and Duke isn’t as bad as people
think. Look for the Blue Devlis to hang in there.
Vandy by only 3.
@Missouri (-21½) over Colorado
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
If Missouri is as good as we think they are, then this
is a good bounce back spot for them. The Tigers
enter off back-to-back losses against Oklahoma St
and Texas. Two weeks back, Mizzou was a 14½-
point home favorite over Okie St and lost straight-up
28-23. And last week they were just pounded from
the get-go at Texas and wound up losing 56-31.
But there should be no shame in losing either one of
those games. The Oklahoma St loss looks worse
because of the high spread, but that line was simply
out of whack. Many thought Missouri would give
Texas all they wanted last week as they were off
that home loss and were catching Texas off their big
Oklahoma win. And we saw a ton of support for
them as the line crashed from 7½ to 4 at kickoff.
Now how many bettors who backed Missouri last
week will be quick to unload on them again this
week? Not too many, especially with the Tigers
laying three touchdowns.
But we’ll certainly step in here. Missouri’s highoctane
offense has been stalled by much bigger and
faster defenses than what they’ll face with Colorado.
Missouri’s gimmicky offense is not as effective when
facing good defenses, but when it lines up against
weak ones, it explodes. Over their first five games,
Missouri scored at least 42 points in every game.
They had just 17 going into the 4th quarter last week
before they piled up the garbage points and yards
when the game was out of reach. Last year, Chase
Daniel led the Tigers to 55 points and 598 yards in
their 45-point win at Colorado. And a repeat of that
performance is certainly attainable again this year.
Missouri’s schedule is weak the rest of the way, and
big, lopsided wins should resume.
Colorado was supposed to be much improved this
year. It’s Dan Hawkins third year, and after going
from 2-10 in 2006 to 6-7 and a bowl game in 2007,
another positive step was expected. But that
certainly has not been the case. Colorado got out of
the gate fast opening the season at 3-0. But the
wheels have come off lately as the Buffaloes are just
1-3 over their last four games. The win came last
week over a bad Kansas St team, but Colorado
should be embarrassed by the 14-13 final. Kansas
St’s defense is horrible, but they held Colorado to
just 13 points on 353 yards. Over their previous
four games, K-St allowed at least 30 points and 509
yards to opposing offenses. Colorado has no chance
of trading points with Missouri here. Under Dan
Hawkins, Colorado is only 2-9-1 against the spread
as a road underdog. That, combined with the fact
that Missouri will be looking to atone for the last two
weeks, equals blowout. Missouri by 28.
@Hawaii (+3½) over Nevada
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This was supposed to be a major rebuilding year in
Honululu under new HC Greg McMackin. The
Warriors returned only 8 starters from last year’s
Sugar Bowl squad. They have struggled at times,
but the drop off has not been quite as severe as
many of us expected. They played Florida very
tough for a quarter and a half in Gainesville before
understandably being blown out in the 2nd half.
Since then they have played pretty well, including
upsetting Fresno on the road as a 3 TD underdog,
beating Louisiana Tech by double digits at home,
and then losing but covering at Boise this past
Friday. They trailed the Broncos by only a field goal
at the half in a very physical game on the blue turf.
We all know what a tough place Boise can be to
play, and usually in this conference the top teams
really thrash teams in big home revenge games or
statement games. The Boise players commented all
week how they had waited all season for that game
(their only lost from last season), and although they
won by 20, it was not the cakewalk many of us
thought it would be.
Although they still run a version of the run-andshoot,
UH’s passing numbers are way down from
their teams of the past decade under June Jones.
However, their rushing offense has improved by
nearly 40 yards per game. The defense has
benefited from some extra time on the sidelines and
has played well against a good slate of opposing
offenses, allowing 5.3 yards per play and 370 yards
per game. One thing you will always get from
Hawaii is maximum effort, especially on this field
where they are 17-2 SU the last 19 games, and 49-
12 SU since 2001.
Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick is a future NFL QB and
gives the Wolf Pack a big edge at the position in this
matchup. However, the Wolf Pack defense, ranked
94th in the nation, leaves a lot to be desired and will
struggle with Hawaii’s run-and-shoot. They allow
8.3 yards per pass, and although that number has
been inflated by a schedule that includes Texas Tech
and Missouri, they have given up at least 225 yards
passing to every team on their schedule. This is
also a team that routinely struggles on the road
when they aren’t clearly the superior squad. Since
HC Chris Ault returned in 2004, they are only 7-16
ATS in away games when not favored by double
digits. As good is Kaepernick is, it must be noted
that Hawaii’s defense (led by now HC McMackin)
held him to his worst numbers ever last season as
he had only 23 yards rushing and 134 yards passing.
We’ll back the better defense and strong home field
in this one. Hawaii by 3
NFL
Sunday, October 26th, 2008
@Ravens (-7) over Raiders
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Who in the heck is Joe Flacco and how did he become the
Ravens' starting QB? The 23-year old first round pick out of
Delaware had a breakout game last week at Miami. The
Ravens beat the Dolphins 27-13 and Flacco completed 17
of 23 passes for a healthy 232 yards. The kid has shown
slow but steady improvement after taking over thanks to a
season-ending injury to Kyle Boller. Offensive coordinator
Cam Cameron has done a solid job bringing Flacco around.
Now that Cameron is back at the offensive coordinator
position after a miserable job as the top dog in Miami he is
displaying the same talent for QB development he showed
in San Diego first with Drew Brees and then Philip Rivers.
Flacco's counterpart in Oakland also comes off a fine
game. JaMarcus Russell outdueled Brett Favre in overtime
to lead the Raiders to a 16-13 upset over the Jets. But
Flacco has proved to be the better QB even though Russell
is in his second season. Russell is completing just 51.2% of
his passes, while Flacco is hitting for 64.2%. Flacco has
thrown more interceptions, but the disparity in completion
percentage is enormous. Russell also has a better rushing
attack to rely on yet is not able to consistently take
advantage of the more favorable coverages it forces. Part
of Russell's problem may be the crowd. All QBs will
perform at a lower level on the road, but Russell's
problems seem especially acute when traveling. In three
road games so far he has completed 37.1, 47.4, and
35.3% of his throws. That slate includes a game at
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the fans these
days are as likely to boo the home team as the visitors.
The Ravens stats edge is large in both phases of the game.
When only the teams' rushing numbers are tallied my
model makes Baltimore an 11-point favorite, and the
passing game gives Baltimore a 16.5-point edge. That
edge in the run game may seem odd as the Raiders do run
the ball fairly well. But the Ravens' run D is stout, giving up
just 2.9 yards per carry and my numbers show Baltimore
has played the better schedule so far in large part because
of the aforementioned game against the Chiefs.
I don't have a great deal of technical backing for the
Ravens here, but what I have is pretty good. Off their
double digit win the Ravens apply to a 125-64 ATS
momentum system that has performed at better than 60%
ATS out of sample since I started using it several years
ago.
Given the difficulties they have faced Ravens' first year
head coach John Harbaugh is doing a fine job. The injury
list has 15 players on it, a rookie quarterback from Division
1-AA has taken every snap and yet the team is 3-3 and
occupies second place in the AFC North. Tom Cable has his
first win as Oakland's head coach, but he has no more
authority than Lane Kiffin or any other of the recent
Raiders' coaches had. Oakland has won just 22 of its last
87 games, and the coaches aren't the problem, Al Davis is.
I'll take the better program with the better coaching. Lay
the wood. Baltimore by 14
Bills @Dolphins under 41
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
There’s a reason that gimmick offenses don’t
work in the NFL. Superior athletes, who are
prepared and understand their assignments,
can stop gimmicks. A lot of “systems” and
gimmicks can work in college football,
especially when the opponent sees it only once
a year or less. But unlike the limited practice
time available in college, playing in the NFL
playing is a full time job. In their three wins,
the Dolphins used the Wildcat formation 25
times for 252 yards and 6 TD’s. Obviously the
Ravens burned the midnight oil when it came
to preparation to stop the Wildcat (stay in your
gaps, don’t freelance our of your assignment,
etc.) and it worked out great for Baltimore.
Gaining only 4 yards on 5 plays, after gaining
over 10 yards per play previously, the Dolphins
obviously realize that the bloom is off the
Wildcat rose. Their offense isn’t terrific when
not in the gimmick. In the three games prior
to the Baltimore loss, they scored 11
touchdowns, with 6 of those TD’s coming out
of the Wildcat. With the league catching up to
the direct running back snaps, Miami doesn’t
figure to get a lot of production against a Bills
defense that had another outstanding game
Sunday against the Chargers high-powered
offense. Buffalo has held 4 of their 6
opponents below 17 points and are very
capable.
Under defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni, the
Dolphins D has been sound, holding three
opponents below 300 yards. But Miami didn’t play
well Sunday, with head coach Tony Sparano pointing
out that poor tackling was an issue. Miami may
have been complacent against a Ravens offense that
doesn’t scare a whole lot of people. That poor
performance figures to spur them back to another
quality performance, especially against a conference
foe. The Bills have yet to sniff 300 yards of total
offense in their three road games thus far, and are
generating significantly more offense back in
Orchard Park.
Miami’s in a new system (their third in three years),
so past history doesn’t mean as much as if the
coaching staff was together, but still, a lot of the
same players were on the field the last two years
these two teams have combined for 23 and 22
points. This one won’t be that low scoring, but
neither will it see a barrage of explosion plays.
Under is the call.
@Patriots (- 7) over St Louis
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
The transition from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel has
been much rougher than people thought. Nobody
can match what Brady has done on the field, and to
think Matt Cassel would pick-up where Brady left off
was just wishful thinking. But Cassel was expected
to step-up and be serviceable. He’s done exactly
that, in spots though. The Jets game and the 49ers
game are clear evidence of that. Cassel completed
69% (38-55) of his passes for 424 yards while
averaging 7.7 yards per pass in those two games.
But the home game against Miami was bad, and the
loss at San Diego was embarrassing. In those two
games, Cassel completed only 59.4% (41-69) of his
passes for 334 yards while averaging just 4.8 yards
per pass. Let’s forgive him for the faux pas on the
West coast as the Chargers had pointed towards
that game for a while.
After opening the season at 0-4, the Rams went into
a much-needed bye. And they fired Scott Linehan.
Jim Haslett took over, and as he promised during
that off week, we’ve seen a much different Rams
team. The first thing Haslett did was give the
starting quarterback spot back to Marc Bulger who
was a victim of Linehan’s desperate attempt to save
his job. Out of the bye, the Rams went into D.C.
and beat the Redskins 19-17 as a 12-point road
underdog. But they caught the Skins in a flat spot
off their back-to-back wins over Dallas and
Philadelphia. Last week, the Rams smashed the
Cowboys at home winning 34-14 as 8-point home
dogs. They again were fortunate as they caught the
Cowboys without Tony Romo, and also benefited
from 4 Dallas turnovers. But St Louis finds itself in
the bad spot here. Off back-to-back underdog wins,
the Rams must travel east and play this game
against either a desperate Patriots team or a
confident Patriots team. This write-up comes before
the Monday game, but even without knowing if the
Patriots won or lost, the Rams are in a tough
situation.
The Patriots should be able to throw with great
efficiency as the Rams allow over 8 yards per pass
attempt. And we haven’t seen New England explode
in the passing game under Cassel yet, but this could
very well be that breakout game, especially if he
plays like he did against the Jets and 49ers. If that
happens, things could get ugly here. Over the last
two years, St Louis has lost 8 games on the road.
All eight of those losses have come by at least 9
points or more with the average loss coming by 24
points per game. Over that same time frame, the
Patriots have won 11 games at home. Ten of those eleven
wins have come by 7 points or more with the average
winning margin coming by 18 points per game. The Rams
are not as good as their last two wins suggest, and they’ll
resemble the awful 0-4 Rams here. Patriots by 14.
New York Giants (+3, -120) over @Steelers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The team with the second best record in the AFC
meets the team with the top record in the NFC here.
And what do they have in common? Neither one of
them has beaten a team with a winning record.
Sure, they’ve both benefited from some fortuitous
scheduling and catching teams with problems, but
these two have won games, and you can’t ask for
anything more than that. After avoiding it
impressively for a while, the dreaded post-Super
Bowl hangover has apparently caught up with the
New York Giants. Clearly, this team had a lot of
trouble getting motivated for the Browns and Niners
the past couple of weeks. “I think we’re capable of
playing a whole lot better than we did,” said Giants
mentor Tom Coughlin following their ugly (teams
combined for 24 penalties for 214 yards) win over
San Francisco. But showing how he’s learned to
coddle the modern player, Coughlin quickly added
“but as I told the players, the objective was to win
one game.”
The Steelers offensive line doesn’t like Ben
Roethlisberger’s penchant for holding onto the ball,
leading to a lot of sacks that they’re blamed for. But
clearly this isn’t the best pass-protecting unit in the
league either. That problem was masked by facing
the toothless Bengals Sunday, but it won’t be here.
Giants have been stumbling around, looking for a
challenge, and they have one here. And they have
the defensive line and pass rush to get in Big Ben’s
face and really cause him some problems. On the
other side of the ball there is certainly some concern
about Plaxico Burress’s diva act, as he and Coughlin
got into a shouting match Sunday after Plax picked
up a 15-yard personal foul call for arguing a
phantom offensive pass interference call, which
negated a great catch for an important gain. The
team played with tremendous passion when Burress
was suspended for the Seahawks game, but have
played inspired football the past two weeks upon his
return. Maybe Coughlin needs to look for a reason
to give Burress the boot once again.
The Steelers running game has been shut down by a
couple of solid defenses (33 yards vs. the Eagles, 69
yards vs. the Ravens) and if the Giants can slow
them down you have to figure the pass rush (5
sacks and constant pressure against San Francisco)
can get to Roethlisberger Some matchups favor the
Giants here, and the spotlight game motivation
helps quite a bit. It speaks volumes that they
played so poorly against the Niners yet they still won
by double digits and it could have been a 20+ point
win were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD.
Giants offense needs a crisper effort, and we think they’ll
offer one up in a big game. NFC looks to be better than
the AFC this year and taking the best team from the better
conference with the points seems like a sensible
proposition. Giants by 3.
Monday, October 27th, 2008
Colts (+4) @Titans
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they
bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The
defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in
points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards
per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play).
They are definitely one of the league’s best coached
by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However,
it must be noted that they have not yet played a
team with a winning record, and the best statistical
offense they have shut down is Houston, a team
who has gotten much of their yards in games where
they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they
have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not
saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they
certainly better be if they want to pull away from a
veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win
mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their
defense, and I’d like to see them against a real
offense before christening them the new king of this
division.
The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC
South, and have already lost a divisional game to
Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games
over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will
help them here. They have played a tougher
schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a
ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably
out again here, they are now healthy on the
offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the
league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today
(check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything
this league can throw at him defensively, and I have
to believe that he will find something that works
against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has
plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of
the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the
losses coming in the season finale last year when
the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time
that Tennessee has been favored during those 10
meetings before today.
Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog
under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more
games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind
of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They
have been in must win games before, while
Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have
the better record, but are they really better based
on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate
offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on
that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is
priced like those questions don’t exist when they
certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and
company. Indy by 3
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 10 October 23-27, 2008 •
SELECTIONS: October 23-27, 2008
College Football
Saturday, October 25th, 2008
Army (-1½) over Louisiana Tech
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Having changed to a triple option offense in the offseason,
Army understandably struggled, losing their first four
games, but is now starting to get it. Against Temple, New
Hampshire, and Akron, Army averaged 179 yards rushing
on 3.3 yards per rush, but things really turned around in a
close loss to Texas A&M. The Cadets went for 280 yards
on the ground at 4.3 yards per carry in that one. And
since then, Army has cranked on the ground, averaging
317 yards on 6.0 yards per carry against Tulane, Eastern
Michigan, and Buffalo. They beat Tulane and Eastern
Michigan, and lost in OT Saturday to Buffalo. In that
Buffalo game, Army went for 320 yards on 54 carries, just
a shade under 6 yards per rush. And Buffalo’s head coach
was uniquely qualified to coach his team against the Army
offense, as Turner Gill was one of the premier triple-option
quarterbacks in the history of college football at Nebraska.
For Louisiana Tech, this is a “what are they doing here?”
kind of game. It’s one thing to be here in September, but
when you’ve already been to Honolulu and Boise so far this
season, how enthusiastic are you going to be on the bluff
overlooking the Hudson River in late October? In the midst
of your WAC schedule, do have the will do to what’s
necessary to win this game against such a unique offense?
The Bulldogs haven’t seen an option team this year, nor
did they see one last year. The triple option can be like
learning to play defense all over again, and how much
does Louisiana Tech really want to go to the wall to stop
it? How will Louisiana Tech’s defensive line feel late in the
game when fullback Colin Mooney at 5-10, 247 pounds,
plows into the line for the 50th time? He sets up RB
Wesley McMahand, who is only 5-6 but averages over 8
yards per carry. Louisiana Tech has decent run defense
stats, but the best running team they’ve played is Boise
(ranked 66th), everyone else they’ve played is ranked 85th
or higher.
Without the speed and athleticism of many opponents,
Army’s physical, intense defense, gives maximum effort on
every play. Opponents have been quoted as saying that
their intensity has been tough to match. Ross Jenkins is
the new quarterback for Louisiana Tech, and his first start
was Saturday night in a blowout win over Idaho, the worst
team in 1-A football. This is his first road start, and Michie
Stadium can be an intimidating environment, with the
wind, the noise from the Cadets, and the intensity of the
Army defense.
Army’s off a disappointing defeat. They had a pretty good (for the
level) Buffalo team beat in the fourth quarter, but a key turnover
helped lead to a 14-point Buffalo comeback and the result was a
27-24 loss to the Bulls in overtime. It can be tough to play a team
off a close defeat, especially an overtime game they should have
won, but these service academy kids have a lot of resiliency, and
the Black Knights will bring their A-game each and every week.
Lousiana Tech is happy with their blowout WAC win, has a big WAC
home game against Fresno next Saturday, and will be asking
themselves “what are we doing here?” when they realize that Army
is the team that wants this game more. Army by 9.
Cincinnati (pk) over @Connecticut
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Both of these teams most recently played Rutgers,
and played tight, low scoring games against the
Scarlet Knights. Before their bye week, Cincinnati
beat RU at home 13-10 without their top two QB’s.
Saturday, UConn went to Rutgers and lost 12-10
with one of their top quarterbacks, but they may not
have him Saturday. We’ll get to those details in a
bit. First let’s look at the nature of the Huskies. It
is always a little dangerous to go against
Connecticut, as the Huskies results on Saturday,
where they largely outplayed Rutgers but lost, are
the reverse of what is usually the case. In their last
15 games, Connecticut is 9-6, and in 5 of those 9
wins, they were outgained. They’re well coached,
opportunistic, and pretty good on special teams.
But some of those characteristics appear to be
disappearing. That’s what makes their loss to
Rutgers Saturday painful. Their special teams were
awful. They missed three FG’s, didn’t field a pair of
punts, and trying to turn a kickoff return into a big
play, got tackled on their own 1.
When they aren’t doing all the little things perfectly, they’re
really an average team. Kind of pedestrian on offense,
with a good running game but a very poor passing attack.
Starting QB Tyler Lorenzen is out with a broken foot. Zack
Frazer’s status is unclear after suffering a possible
concussion Saturday. The Huskies averaged 5.4 yards per
pass attempt heading into the Rutgers game, only 15
teams in all of Division 1-A were worse. But Frazer went
for 11.8 yards per attempt against that horrid Rutgers
secondary (allow over 9 yards per attempt on the season).
Much of the passing production came in the fourth quarter
while trailing. Frazer’s backup is a redshirt freshman.
Connecticut can run the ball fairly well, but they’ve scored
12 points or less against Temple, North Carolina, and now,
Rutgers. Against North Carolina and Rutgers the sloppy
Huskies combined for 17 penalties for 154 yards. That’s
not something that would have happened last year. Coach
Randy Edsall is taking some heat in Storrs for the penalties
and defending himself against unimaginative play calling.
Cincinnati’s quarterback position is the reverse of
Connecticut’s as it has been devastated by injuries but is
now getting healthier. Tony Pike will be back for this one.
Pike is completing over 8.3 yards per pass attempt with 6
TD’s and a single interception. Bearcats may have some
matchup advantages, as they beat UConn 27-3 last year on
yardage of 420-204. UConn has had a good defense in
recent years, but permit 5.5 yards per play against teams
that are less explosive than UC. Brian Kelly is an excellent
coach and he has an extra week to prepare his game plan
and look for weaknesses in his opponent. Bearcats are a
little bit of a stealth team. They were about to get some
national attention but then the QB’s got hurt and people
saw the ugly close loss against Rutgers and probably forgot
about them. Cincy is the better team and it shows here.
Cincinnati by 7.
Illinois (-1½) over @Wisconsin
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
For now Bret Bielema's job is plenty safe.
Despite losing both straight up and to the
spread four straight Big 10 games including
last Saturday's 38-16 loss to Iowa, Bielema has
the approval of the only voice that really
matters: Barry Alvarez. After a 48-7 loss to
Penn State two weeks ago Alvarez made a very
public defense of his coach. An AD's legacy is
determined by the coaches he hires and
Alvarez is going to give his guy every
opportunity to turn this around. Things could
get dicey though, if the Badgers don't go
bowling. You need six wins to qualify.
Wisconsin has three so far with five games left
to play. The final game is a gimme against Cal-
Poly SLO.
Wisconsin's problems can be traced to their
problems in the running game. Long a team
that has relied on smash mouth football the
Badgers are having problems pushing
opponents around. After a sound spanking of
Akron to open the season, the Badgers have
outrushed their six opponents since by just 45
yards. Wisconsin needs to dominate on the
ground because QB Allen Evridge is completing
less than 54% of his passes. And that is where
the biggest edge for the visiting Illini is. Illinois
is averaging just over 10 yards per pass
attempt, and on just the air attack alone my
stat model has Illinois favored by 15 points. If
Wisconsin jumps out to the early lead Juice
Williams has enough talent to bring Illinois
back. But if Illinois races in front, it is most
unlikely that Evridge has the goods to mount a
comeback.
Off their 55-13 win over Indiana I have a 291-
193 ATS momentum system on Illinois. Best
tech I have on this game is a negative 166-269
ATS system that plays against Wisky thanks to
their 0-4 mark inside the Big 10. This system is
8-16 ATS in 2008, including losers last
weekend on Colorado, Indiana, and the
Badgers themselves.
A lot of handicappers thought Bielema's 12-1 record
in 2006 was a fraud. Maybe it was. Since then the
Badgers have had problems against their better
opponents. They have covered just four of their last
fourteen against opponents with a winning record
and the Illini are 4-3. Wisconsin's fade continues.
Illinois by 10.
Mississippi (-4) over @Arkansas
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
This is a big game down in Fayetteville. The Hogs
can’t wait to payback Houston Nutt after leaving for
Mississippi. And this game has been dubbed the
“Nutt Bowl.” You’ll hear about it often this week
from the talking heads. But how much of that will
really have an effect on the outcome of this game?
And how much of it is really just hog wash by the
media looking at that angle to carry their stories all
week? Plenty. Because when you look at the
makeup of the current Arkansas team, you’ll see
that they are loaded with a ton of freshman. And
they never played for Nutt, so he’s had little (maybe
recruiting?) to zero affiliation with them. Most of
the talk isn’t coming from the players, but the
reporters. And after what happened last week at
Kentucky, the Arkansas players have a lot more to
worry about than Houston Nutt.
Arkansas blew a win at Kentucky. They held a 20-7
fourth quarter lead, but lost 21-20 after allowing a
touchdown pass with just over 2 minutes to go in
the game. And that loss will be extremely difficult
for them to get over. “This is probably the lowest of
the lows that we’ve experienced as a team this
year,” All-American center Jonathan Luigs said. “And
then to give it away like that is a tough one to
swallow. It’s probably going to test the character
and integrity of this team, how we’re going to
bounce back.” And they’ll have to bounce back
without their best offensive player who has carried
their production. Junior running back Michael Smith
left the Kentucky game with a concussion, and his
return here doesn’t look good according to head
coach Bobby Petrino: “It’s scary because we don’t
know how long he’ll be out with that. It’s a shame
because he was playing his heart out, doing a great
job running the ball, catching the ball.” In fact,
after Smith left the game, the Arkansas offense had
three drives that totaled 11 yards on 13 plays.
Smith had 253 all-purpose yards by himself. If the
SEC’s leading rusher is out, Arkansas will have no
chance at matching points with Mississippi.
Ole Miss lost another close one last week at Alabama. The
24-20 loss looks good, but the Rebels trailed by 21 (24-3)
at the half. We won with them on the late phones, and we
got a fortunate and inspired second half performance. And
that’s what is so good about Houston Nutt. His kids don’t
quit on him, and he knows that. “Tell you what we do
have, we've got some fighters and some guys that are
really believing," Nutt said. "If they keep doing that, good
things are going to happen." The Rebels offense should be
able to score at will on the worst defense in the SEC.
Arkansas has allowed opposing teams to score on 18 of 22
possessions including 14 touchdowns inside the red zone.
And even though the Rebels defense has been equally
awful in that category, Arkansas may not get too many
chances if Smith doesn’t suit up. While Arkansas is on the
improve, they are just in a bad spot off the blown lead last
week and the potential of their best offensive player being
out. Mississippi by 10.
Duke (+9½) over @Vanderbilt
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
David Cutlcliffe rescue of the Duke football program
was big news a few weeks ago, but since then Duke
has lost badly to Georgia Tech and Miami and the
bloom is off the rose. But let’s take a look at both
their losses. Georgia Tech simply creamed the Blue
Devils, but when Paul Johnson’s option offense gets
rolling, that can happen some time. People realize
that, and that’s why there was significant support
for Duke in the betting markets last week. That
underdog money looked pretty good early in the
third quarter when Duke led Miami 24-10, but the
game got away from Duke in a barrage of dropped
passes, missed assignments, and other mistakes,
with Miami winning 49-31. Leading receiver Eron
Riley dropped four balls, to the great consternation
of David Cutcliffe. Coach Cutcliffe will have his
teams full attention this week, as he was very
displeased with the effort in the 4th quarter. “We
stopped playing in the 4th quarter,” said the coach.
But we’re willing to forgive the loss, and see it as
something to bounce back from. Miami is a team of
lighting-quick high school All Americans who also
scored a lot of points against Florida State. They’re
improving rapidly and Duke was competitive for
most of the game. Miami had non-dominant edges
in first downs (23-19) and total yards (420-331).
The Blue Devlis didn’t just get rolled. They were in
the game for a long time. Things are different at
Duke than they used to be.
Vandy is not a team that is poised to take advantage
of Duke’s thin defense. The Commodores have
done very little offensively since the first two weeks
of the season. Their 131 passing yards against
Georgia were only the second time all year that
Vandy has cracked 100 yards passing. They were
outgained for the fifth time in six games. In wins
they have been outgained by 100 yards against
South Carolina, by 63 against Rice, by 183 against
Ole’ Miss. Against punchless Mississipppi State they
were outgained 247-107. Though a win here gets
them bowl eligible, this is still a flat spot on the
schedule, the only game in a string of 8 that is
against a non-conference foe. They are far less
experienced than Duke, returning only 9 starters to
Duke’s 16.
Remember that since Duke waxed Virginia 31-3
three weeks ago, UVA has won three games.
Duke’s defense has shown some vulnerability in the
past two games, but is Vandy the team to cash in on
it? This Vanderbilt team does not fit the profile of a
significant favorite, and Duke isn’t as bad as people
think. Look for the Blue Devlis to hang in there.
Vandy by only 3.
@Missouri (-21½) over Colorado
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
If Missouri is as good as we think they are, then this
is a good bounce back spot for them. The Tigers
enter off back-to-back losses against Oklahoma St
and Texas. Two weeks back, Mizzou was a 14½-
point home favorite over Okie St and lost straight-up
28-23. And last week they were just pounded from
the get-go at Texas and wound up losing 56-31.
But there should be no shame in losing either one of
those games. The Oklahoma St loss looks worse
because of the high spread, but that line was simply
out of whack. Many thought Missouri would give
Texas all they wanted last week as they were off
that home loss and were catching Texas off their big
Oklahoma win. And we saw a ton of support for
them as the line crashed from 7½ to 4 at kickoff.
Now how many bettors who backed Missouri last
week will be quick to unload on them again this
week? Not too many, especially with the Tigers
laying three touchdowns.
But we’ll certainly step in here. Missouri’s highoctane
offense has been stalled by much bigger and
faster defenses than what they’ll face with Colorado.
Missouri’s gimmicky offense is not as effective when
facing good defenses, but when it lines up against
weak ones, it explodes. Over their first five games,
Missouri scored at least 42 points in every game.
They had just 17 going into the 4th quarter last week
before they piled up the garbage points and yards
when the game was out of reach. Last year, Chase
Daniel led the Tigers to 55 points and 598 yards in
their 45-point win at Colorado. And a repeat of that
performance is certainly attainable again this year.
Missouri’s schedule is weak the rest of the way, and
big, lopsided wins should resume.
Colorado was supposed to be much improved this
year. It’s Dan Hawkins third year, and after going
from 2-10 in 2006 to 6-7 and a bowl game in 2007,
another positive step was expected. But that
certainly has not been the case. Colorado got out of
the gate fast opening the season at 3-0. But the
wheels have come off lately as the Buffaloes are just
1-3 over their last four games. The win came last
week over a bad Kansas St team, but Colorado
should be embarrassed by the 14-13 final. Kansas
St’s defense is horrible, but they held Colorado to
just 13 points on 353 yards. Over their previous
four games, K-St allowed at least 30 points and 509
yards to opposing offenses. Colorado has no chance
of trading points with Missouri here. Under Dan
Hawkins, Colorado is only 2-9-1 against the spread
as a road underdog. That, combined with the fact
that Missouri will be looking to atone for the last two
weeks, equals blowout. Missouri by 28.
@Hawaii (+3½) over Nevada
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This was supposed to be a major rebuilding year in
Honululu under new HC Greg McMackin. The
Warriors returned only 8 starters from last year’s
Sugar Bowl squad. They have struggled at times,
but the drop off has not been quite as severe as
many of us expected. They played Florida very
tough for a quarter and a half in Gainesville before
understandably being blown out in the 2nd half.
Since then they have played pretty well, including
upsetting Fresno on the road as a 3 TD underdog,
beating Louisiana Tech by double digits at home,
and then losing but covering at Boise this past
Friday. They trailed the Broncos by only a field goal
at the half in a very physical game on the blue turf.
We all know what a tough place Boise can be to
play, and usually in this conference the top teams
really thrash teams in big home revenge games or
statement games. The Boise players commented all
week how they had waited all season for that game
(their only lost from last season), and although they
won by 20, it was not the cakewalk many of us
thought it would be.
Although they still run a version of the run-andshoot,
UH’s passing numbers are way down from
their teams of the past decade under June Jones.
However, their rushing offense has improved by
nearly 40 yards per game. The defense has
benefited from some extra time on the sidelines and
has played well against a good slate of opposing
offenses, allowing 5.3 yards per play and 370 yards
per game. One thing you will always get from
Hawaii is maximum effort, especially on this field
where they are 17-2 SU the last 19 games, and 49-
12 SU since 2001.
Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick is a future NFL QB and
gives the Wolf Pack a big edge at the position in this
matchup. However, the Wolf Pack defense, ranked
94th in the nation, leaves a lot to be desired and will
struggle with Hawaii’s run-and-shoot. They allow
8.3 yards per pass, and although that number has
been inflated by a schedule that includes Texas Tech
and Missouri, they have given up at least 225 yards
passing to every team on their schedule. This is
also a team that routinely struggles on the road
when they aren’t clearly the superior squad. Since
HC Chris Ault returned in 2004, they are only 7-16
ATS in away games when not favored by double
digits. As good is Kaepernick is, it must be noted
that Hawaii’s defense (led by now HC McMackin)
held him to his worst numbers ever last season as
he had only 23 yards rushing and 134 yards passing.
We’ll back the better defense and strong home field
in this one. Hawaii by 3
NFL
Sunday, October 26th, 2008
@Ravens (-7) over Raiders
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Who in the heck is Joe Flacco and how did he become the
Ravens' starting QB? The 23-year old first round pick out of
Delaware had a breakout game last week at Miami. The
Ravens beat the Dolphins 27-13 and Flacco completed 17
of 23 passes for a healthy 232 yards. The kid has shown
slow but steady improvement after taking over thanks to a
season-ending injury to Kyle Boller. Offensive coordinator
Cam Cameron has done a solid job bringing Flacco around.
Now that Cameron is back at the offensive coordinator
position after a miserable job as the top dog in Miami he is
displaying the same talent for QB development he showed
in San Diego first with Drew Brees and then Philip Rivers.
Flacco's counterpart in Oakland also comes off a fine
game. JaMarcus Russell outdueled Brett Favre in overtime
to lead the Raiders to a 16-13 upset over the Jets. But
Flacco has proved to be the better QB even though Russell
is in his second season. Russell is completing just 51.2% of
his passes, while Flacco is hitting for 64.2%. Flacco has
thrown more interceptions, but the disparity in completion
percentage is enormous. Russell also has a better rushing
attack to rely on yet is not able to consistently take
advantage of the more favorable coverages it forces. Part
of Russell's problem may be the crowd. All QBs will
perform at a lower level on the road, but Russell's
problems seem especially acute when traveling. In three
road games so far he has completed 37.1, 47.4, and
35.3% of his throws. That slate includes a game at
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the fans these
days are as likely to boo the home team as the visitors.
The Ravens stats edge is large in both phases of the game.
When only the teams' rushing numbers are tallied my
model makes Baltimore an 11-point favorite, and the
passing game gives Baltimore a 16.5-point edge. That
edge in the run game may seem odd as the Raiders do run
the ball fairly well. But the Ravens' run D is stout, giving up
just 2.9 yards per carry and my numbers show Baltimore
has played the better schedule so far in large part because
of the aforementioned game against the Chiefs.
I don't have a great deal of technical backing for the
Ravens here, but what I have is pretty good. Off their
double digit win the Ravens apply to a 125-64 ATS
momentum system that has performed at better than 60%
ATS out of sample since I started using it several years
ago.
Given the difficulties they have faced Ravens' first year
head coach John Harbaugh is doing a fine job. The injury
list has 15 players on it, a rookie quarterback from Division
1-AA has taken every snap and yet the team is 3-3 and
occupies second place in the AFC North. Tom Cable has his
first win as Oakland's head coach, but he has no more
authority than Lane Kiffin or any other of the recent
Raiders' coaches had. Oakland has won just 22 of its last
87 games, and the coaches aren't the problem, Al Davis is.
I'll take the better program with the better coaching. Lay
the wood. Baltimore by 14
Bills @Dolphins under 41
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
There’s a reason that gimmick offenses don’t
work in the NFL. Superior athletes, who are
prepared and understand their assignments,
can stop gimmicks. A lot of “systems” and
gimmicks can work in college football,
especially when the opponent sees it only once
a year or less. But unlike the limited practice
time available in college, playing in the NFL
playing is a full time job. In their three wins,
the Dolphins used the Wildcat formation 25
times for 252 yards and 6 TD’s. Obviously the
Ravens burned the midnight oil when it came
to preparation to stop the Wildcat (stay in your
gaps, don’t freelance our of your assignment,
etc.) and it worked out great for Baltimore.
Gaining only 4 yards on 5 plays, after gaining
over 10 yards per play previously, the Dolphins
obviously realize that the bloom is off the
Wildcat rose. Their offense isn’t terrific when
not in the gimmick. In the three games prior
to the Baltimore loss, they scored 11
touchdowns, with 6 of those TD’s coming out
of the Wildcat. With the league catching up to
the direct running back snaps, Miami doesn’t
figure to get a lot of production against a Bills
defense that had another outstanding game
Sunday against the Chargers high-powered
offense. Buffalo has held 4 of their 6
opponents below 17 points and are very
capable.
Under defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni, the
Dolphins D has been sound, holding three
opponents below 300 yards. But Miami didn’t play
well Sunday, with head coach Tony Sparano pointing
out that poor tackling was an issue. Miami may
have been complacent against a Ravens offense that
doesn’t scare a whole lot of people. That poor
performance figures to spur them back to another
quality performance, especially against a conference
foe. The Bills have yet to sniff 300 yards of total
offense in their three road games thus far, and are
generating significantly more offense back in
Orchard Park.
Miami’s in a new system (their third in three years),
so past history doesn’t mean as much as if the
coaching staff was together, but still, a lot of the
same players were on the field the last two years
these two teams have combined for 23 and 22
points. This one won’t be that low scoring, but
neither will it see a barrage of explosion plays.
Under is the call.
@Patriots (- 7) over St Louis
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
The transition from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel has
been much rougher than people thought. Nobody
can match what Brady has done on the field, and to
think Matt Cassel would pick-up where Brady left off
was just wishful thinking. But Cassel was expected
to step-up and be serviceable. He’s done exactly
that, in spots though. The Jets game and the 49ers
game are clear evidence of that. Cassel completed
69% (38-55) of his passes for 424 yards while
averaging 7.7 yards per pass in those two games.
But the home game against Miami was bad, and the
loss at San Diego was embarrassing. In those two
games, Cassel completed only 59.4% (41-69) of his
passes for 334 yards while averaging just 4.8 yards
per pass. Let’s forgive him for the faux pas on the
West coast as the Chargers had pointed towards
that game for a while.
After opening the season at 0-4, the Rams went into
a much-needed bye. And they fired Scott Linehan.
Jim Haslett took over, and as he promised during
that off week, we’ve seen a much different Rams
team. The first thing Haslett did was give the
starting quarterback spot back to Marc Bulger who
was a victim of Linehan’s desperate attempt to save
his job. Out of the bye, the Rams went into D.C.
and beat the Redskins 19-17 as a 12-point road
underdog. But they caught the Skins in a flat spot
off their back-to-back wins over Dallas and
Philadelphia. Last week, the Rams smashed the
Cowboys at home winning 34-14 as 8-point home
dogs. They again were fortunate as they caught the
Cowboys without Tony Romo, and also benefited
from 4 Dallas turnovers. But St Louis finds itself in
the bad spot here. Off back-to-back underdog wins,
the Rams must travel east and play this game
against either a desperate Patriots team or a
confident Patriots team. This write-up comes before
the Monday game, but even without knowing if the
Patriots won or lost, the Rams are in a tough
situation.
The Patriots should be able to throw with great
efficiency as the Rams allow over 8 yards per pass
attempt. And we haven’t seen New England explode
in the passing game under Cassel yet, but this could
very well be that breakout game, especially if he
plays like he did against the Jets and 49ers. If that
happens, things could get ugly here. Over the last
two years, St Louis has lost 8 games on the road.
All eight of those losses have come by at least 9
points or more with the average loss coming by 24
points per game. Over that same time frame, the
Patriots have won 11 games at home. Ten of those eleven
wins have come by 7 points or more with the average
winning margin coming by 18 points per game. The Rams
are not as good as their last two wins suggest, and they’ll
resemble the awful 0-4 Rams here. Patriots by 14.
New York Giants (+3, -120) over @Steelers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The team with the second best record in the AFC
meets the team with the top record in the NFC here.
And what do they have in common? Neither one of
them has beaten a team with a winning record.
Sure, they’ve both benefited from some fortuitous
scheduling and catching teams with problems, but
these two have won games, and you can’t ask for
anything more than that. After avoiding it
impressively for a while, the dreaded post-Super
Bowl hangover has apparently caught up with the
New York Giants. Clearly, this team had a lot of
trouble getting motivated for the Browns and Niners
the past couple of weeks. “I think we’re capable of
playing a whole lot better than we did,” said Giants
mentor Tom Coughlin following their ugly (teams
combined for 24 penalties for 214 yards) win over
San Francisco. But showing how he’s learned to
coddle the modern player, Coughlin quickly added
“but as I told the players, the objective was to win
one game.”
The Steelers offensive line doesn’t like Ben
Roethlisberger’s penchant for holding onto the ball,
leading to a lot of sacks that they’re blamed for. But
clearly this isn’t the best pass-protecting unit in the
league either. That problem was masked by facing
the toothless Bengals Sunday, but it won’t be here.
Giants have been stumbling around, looking for a
challenge, and they have one here. And they have
the defensive line and pass rush to get in Big Ben’s
face and really cause him some problems. On the
other side of the ball there is certainly some concern
about Plaxico Burress’s diva act, as he and Coughlin
got into a shouting match Sunday after Plax picked
up a 15-yard personal foul call for arguing a
phantom offensive pass interference call, which
negated a great catch for an important gain. The
team played with tremendous passion when Burress
was suspended for the Seahawks game, but have
played inspired football the past two weeks upon his
return. Maybe Coughlin needs to look for a reason
to give Burress the boot once again.
The Steelers running game has been shut down by a
couple of solid defenses (33 yards vs. the Eagles, 69
yards vs. the Ravens) and if the Giants can slow
them down you have to figure the pass rush (5
sacks and constant pressure against San Francisco)
can get to Roethlisberger Some matchups favor the
Giants here, and the spotlight game motivation
helps quite a bit. It speaks volumes that they
played so poorly against the Niners yet they still won
by double digits and it could have been a 20+ point
win were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD.
Giants offense needs a crisper effort, and we think they’ll
offer one up in a big game. NFC looks to be better than
the AFC this year and taking the best team from the better
conference with the points seems like a sensible
proposition. Giants by 3.
Monday, October 27th, 2008
Colts (+4) @Titans
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they
bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The
defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in
points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards
per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play).
They are definitely one of the league’s best coached
by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However,
it must be noted that they have not yet played a
team with a winning record, and the best statistical
offense they have shut down is Houston, a team
who has gotten much of their yards in games where
they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they
have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not
saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they
certainly better be if they want to pull away from a
veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win
mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their
defense, and I’d like to see them against a real
offense before christening them the new king of this
division.
The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC
South, and have already lost a divisional game to
Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games
over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will
help them here. They have played a tougher
schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a
ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably
out again here, they are now healthy on the
offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the
league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today
(check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything
this league can throw at him defensively, and I have
to believe that he will find something that works
against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has
plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of
the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the
losses coming in the season finale last year when
the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time
that Tennessee has been favored during those 10
meetings before today.
Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog
under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more
games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind
of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They
have been in must win games before, while
Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have
the better record, but are they really better based
on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate
offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on
that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is
priced like those questions don’t exist when they
certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and
company. Indy by 3
Power Sweep:
4* Georgia Tech 28-6
3* Florida St. 27-13
3*Nebraska 38-17
2*Wisconsin 31-24
2*SMU + 37 (+)-34
2* North Carolina 30-20
Underdog Michigan (+5) 23-20 Michigan Outright
4* Carolina 24-10
3* Philidelphia 34-13
2* K.C. + 20(+) -23
2* Washington 34-20
3* KC/Jets over 38
3* Bills/Fins over 40
3*NYG/Steelers over 43
2* Rams/Pats under 43
2* Cards/Panthers under 44<!-- / message -->
4* Georgia Tech 28-6
3* Florida St. 27-13
3*Nebraska 38-17
2*Wisconsin 31-24
2*SMU + 37 (+)-34
2* North Carolina 30-20
Underdog Michigan (+5) 23-20 Michigan Outright
4* Carolina 24-10
3* Philidelphia 34-13
2* K.C. + 20(+) -23
2* Washington 34-20
3* KC/Jets over 38
3* Bills/Fins over 40
3*NYG/Steelers over 43
2* Rams/Pats under 43
2* Cards/Panthers under 44<!-- / message -->
The sports reporter -nfl
THE SPORTS REPORTER -NFL
NFL BEST BETS 72% WINNERS IN ‘08
BEST BET
*PHILADELPHIA over ATLANTA by 21
With the Eagles coming off a bye week, an opponent has finally had some time to take
a long, hard look at the Falcons, who were 4-2 ATS prior to their own bye. The margins
of those covers has been on the way down: +16.5, +18.5, +8.5, +4.5. With Philly
regrouping and getting key players back healthy, the prospect of Atlanta going out and
dominating the number with a rookie quarterback (video time for Eagles’ DC Jim
Johnson!) seems unlikely. The Eagles are one of 10 NFL defenses with a sub-60% pass
completion rate against, and the Falcons are one of 10 NFL offenses completing less
than 58% of their passes. Atlanta’s offensive turnover rate is the fourth-best in the NFL
but the Giants’ offense had the best ball-security rate until Cleveland’s defense had two
weeks to study some stuff and then picked Eli Manning three times. Falcons’ WR Roddy
White has been getting behind some opposing defenses but he probably won’t get
behind Eagles’ DB Asante Samuel. Atlanta’s 182 rushing yards per game is nice but Philly
has good depth on its defensive line and if McNabb and Co. get a lead, Atlanta’s running
game is in position to vaporize and leave Matt Ryan exposed to a defense with its ears
pinned back. PHILADELPHIA, 34-13.
BEST BET
*PITTSBURGH over NEW YORK GIANTS by 14
Despite pulling out the home victory against the 49ers in week seven, the Giants have
not looked crisp in either execution or effort these past two weeks and face a very difficult
non-conference opponent in the Steelers. With consecutive games against divisional
foes Dallas and Philadelphia on deck following the trip to the Steel City, Tom Coughlin
has to be worried about his team’s level of desire and effort this week. Despite a very
public spat with receiver Plaxico Burress during last week’s game, Burress may be one
of the few Giants that can be counted on showing up in this trip to his original franchise.
That being said, the Steelers know how to take Burress out of a game and it is a given
that the Pittsburgh corners will be manhandling him for 60 full minutes. Despite a leaky
offensive line that has given up their fair share of sacks, Ben Roethlisberger continues to
display incredible stubbornness and strength, refusing to go down when draped by
defenders and not giving up on plays. That type of tenacity will pay off in spades against
a visiting team whose greatest asset is their pass rush, but features a group of cornerbacks
that can be exploited. Look for the Steelers to target Aaron Ross, who has proven
susceptible to double moves and is at an all-time low in confidence. PITTSBURGH 28-14.
RECOMMENDED
*NEW YORK JETS over KANSAS CITY by 22
The downward spiral continues in Kansas City as Brodie Croyle suffered a season ending
injury last week, in his first game back from injury, and Damon Huard was knocked
out by an injury in the fourth quarter. Is this the dawn of the Tyler Thigpen era? You have
to think the Chiefs could do better with just about anybody, including Jeff George, but it’s
a predicament that ultimately will not matter in light of this team’s utter lack of talent.
Larry Johnson is also facing another suspension, this team league-mandated, for his
altercation with a woman at a nightclub. Things could not get much worse. The Jets are
feeling the blues after blowing the opportunity for road win in Oakland, in a game they
could have used in light of Buffalo’s performance, but have been served a gift from the
football gods in the form of a home game against the lowly Chiefs.Watch for the Jets to
come out throwing early, using Favre’s arm to jump out to an early lead which they will
milk with the running game against a Kansas City defense that allows an astonishing 182
yards per game on the ground. NEW YORK 31-9.
RECOMMENDED
*HOUSTON over CINCINNATI by 18
(Originally scheduled for a later date). This is reportedly the way Texans owner Bob
McNair wanted it in the aftermath of the Hurricane that postponed Houston’s home game
vs. Baltimore in Week 2. He got his way, and his team gained an edge. Cincinnati was
forced to switch its bye week from this Sunday to November 9. As it turns out, no NFL
team needs a bye more desperately right now than 0-7 SU Cincinnati. Bengali Svengali
Marvin Lewis has been getting competitive efforts in spots from a questionable collection
of talent, partly due to nice game-planning by new defensive coordinator Mike
Zimmer (ex-Dallas) against NFC opponents he knew. But the signs of a complete Bengals
breakdown are there, and that breakdown might have begun in the fourth quarter at
Pittsburgh last Sunday. Houston is one dog of a football team when it comes to the
spread, and despite the presence of DE Mario Williams, their pass rush isn’t the
Pittsburgh pass rush that sacked poor Ryan Fitzpatrick seven times last Sunday. But
every dog of a team has its day. The Texans can move the football and the frazzled defensive
brains of Zimmer/Lewis are preparing a tired bunch of losers for the strangest
opposing offense they’ve seen lately. The teams have not met since before Gary Kubiak
became head coach of the Texans. HOUSTON, 38-20.
*BALTIMORE over OAKLAND by 10
Former offensive line coach Tom Cable notched his first victory at home against Favre and
the Farce in week seven, but will find out quickly that facing the Ravens on the road is a completely
different venture. JaMarcus Russell remains a liability at QB, unable to apply touch to
most passes and lacking rhythm with his receivers. As a result, the Oakland offense runs as
often as possible to relieve pressure on Russell. That will make it that much easier for the
Ravens to bottle up any potential yardage gains for the Silver-and-Black. As a unit, the
Ravens defense allows a mere 66.4 yards per game on the ground and 154.4 yards through
the air. They should not have many problems meeting those high standards against one of
the most dysfunctional offensive units in football. On offense, the Ravens will try to keep
Willis McGahee rolling against a Raiders defense that has allowed 27 points per game,
including 115 yards per game on the ground. Nnamdi Asomugha’s presence on the outside
will make it tougher for Flacco Joe to find his favorite target, Derrick Mason, which should
increase the Ravens’ reliance on the running game. In the end, if Flacco does not implode,
the game belongs to the Ravens. BALTIMORE 20-10.
NEW ORLEANS over SAN DIEGO by 2 (at London, England)
London calling. The Intercontinental Clash of the Inter-Conference Non-Rivals. The Saints
failed to show up at Carolina despite finally having a full arsenal of offensive weapons. The
usually reliable Drew Brees could only muster up seven points on the road against Carolina.
Maybe they were just gearing up and saving up for the personal revenge game of Brees’ life,
against the team that allowed him to leave via free agency? "I felt like there was one person
who really just didn't quite believe in me like the rest of them," Brees said this past summer,
referring to Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith. "That's unfortunate.” Will it be unfortunate for San
Diego, who just got passed against for 25-of-30 in Buffalo by a second-season opposing
quarterback? These 3-4 SU teams face off in London, where the weather forecast says 60%
chance of precipitation. A big problem for the Chargers has been their running game, as
LaDainian Tomlinson has been clearly hampered by injuries and Norv Turner has refused to
give a full workload to back-up Darren Sproles. Chris Chambers’ ankle injury and Antonio
Gates’ nagging injuries have diluted the passing game and the defense’s overall softness has
hurt the Chargers all season. They have surrendered more points than the much-maligned
Denver Broncos, and only three fewer points than the Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints will be
without Reggie Bush for this game following a knee injury, but one more week of practice
reps should heighten the rhythm between Brees and Marques Colston, who was invisible last
week in his first game back from injury. If the other injury returnee, TE Shockey, can keep his
temper in check, the Saints should get it done. NEW ORLEANS 26-24.
BUFFALO over *MIAMI by 3
Trickery dickery dock. The Dolphins work the clock. But Pennington is a pet rock and their
defense is schlock. Trickery dickery dock. Buffalo’s secondary weathered a bad match-up
against San Diego’s receivers last Sunday, as well as an injury absence by DE Bo Schobel.
They get an easier draw here. Miami’s offense doesn’t know what it is from week to week
and pits its identity crisis against a defense that is beginning to make plays when it has to,
gaining confidence by the week. But the NFL road is a perpetually perplexing path. Trent
Edwards was almost too good for the Bills last Sunday, completing 25-of-30 passes against
the Chargers. Beware the Man Who Might Fall to Earth, but don’t confuse that with a ringing
endorsement of the Dolphins. Some of Penningstone’s worst performance as a Jetson came
against Buffalo’s defense – when it was injured. However, with the Jets, he had a running
game that couldn’t break a pane of glass. At the least the Dolphins have a pair of potentially
damaging running backs. BUFFALO, 23-20.
*DALLAS over TAMPA BAY by 9
We have a wounded animal returning to its own lair. The Bucs probably think they’ll be able
sneak in there and steal Dallas’ dinner. Arrgh. Beware. It didn’t matter to the Cowboys
whether they lost 34-14 or 15-14 at St. Louis last Sunday. They are back home off two sensational
defeats on the road, with a 0-0 scoreboard. What exists now is a big Dallas offensive
line pointed at a small Tampa Bay defensive front whose coordinator rarely calls for
blitzes, and whose Bucs defense has spent more time between the white lines than most
other NFL defenses this season. Dallas has RB Marion Barber to help keep it that way and
will pound Tampa Bay repeatedly in a scoreboard situation that does not figure to spin out of
control against the Cowboys early. There is also the very veteran QB Brad Johnson playing
quarterback for the Cowboys against the style of defense that he practiced against every day
in Tampa Bay for four seasons, and/or contributing what he knows about the Gruden offense
that he directed during those years. Not at all interested in joining a world that is poised to
pile on against the Dallas team from all angles when some angles of our own point the other
way. DALLAS, 26-17.
*NEW ENGLAND over ST. LOUIS by 11
The Rams’ very predictable twin-peaks successes vs. Washington and Dallas set them up
nicely for an immediate regression. Of course those two wins were predictable. One was a
Best Bet winner in Sports Reporter, the other a Best Best in the Midweek Update. The sparsely-
attended bandwagon stops between games to pick up the Johnny-come-latelys. But we
all tiptoe off the bus as the frantic masses push and shove to board it. They expect a juggernaut
ride with the Rams in the home of a “struggling” Patriots team that is forced to face
the upstarts off a short week following the Monday Night outing at Denver. But without setup
plays by the defense, the Rams’ offense can’t put enough points on the board. The
defense, predictably given the circumstances, made a few key plays in each of the two consecutive
so-called “upset” wins against two opponents who were in extremely negative situations
detailed in Sports Reporter and Midweek Update. We’ve been there, done that. The
Patriots don’t beat themselves and are capable of playing fine defense against the ordinary
offensive opponent, who was gaining less than 250 yards of total offense per game prior to
facing Dallas. NEW ENGLAND, 20-9.
ARIZONA over *CAROLINA by 1
The Cardinals come off their bye week and are expected to have the services of Anquan
Boldin as they travel to face the NFC South division-leading Panthers. Boldin’s return will be
essential to keeping Kurt Warner upright, as the pass rush will be fierce and having three
dependable receivers on the field will help Warner from getting killed on every three-step
drop. The Cardinals receivers will prove to be an intriguing match-up against a Carolina secondary
that has played well all season, but not yet been tested by a healthy elite offense.
Arizona will struggle to gain consistent yards with Edgerrin James and their offensive output
will be determined by their passing game. The Panthers will try to run the ball early and often
against a Cardinals defense that has been surprisingly stout against opposing running
games. Carolina’s success, or lack thereof, with their running game willl determine how
much Jake Delhomme throws the ball against what has been an inconsistent Arizona pass
defense. The Cardinals lack the one shutdown cornerback to match-up against Steve Smith,
but an extra week of preparation will give Ken Whisenhunt’s coaching staff some wrinkles in
their gameplan against the shifty wide receiver. Look for a close and hard-hitting game
replete with turnovers, but ultimately won by the team that has had more preparation. ARIZONA
24-23.
WASHINGTON over *DETROIT by 12
How much longer can the winless streak continue? With Dan Orlovsky at the helm, anything
is a possibility! The Lions at least made it interesting against Houston, but the outcome was
never seriously in doubt and it has become obvious that Rod Marinelli, the coach, is not much
better than Matt Millen, the exiled president. On the other side of the field, Jim Zorn the coach
is proving to be a big hit with the Redskins faithful. While it is unlikely the ’Skins keep up this
high level of play all season (look for the next hiccup next week),Washington has shown they
have the talent to compete with the big boys in their division. Seemingly out of nowhere, the
’Skins have the makings of a complete offense, with Clinton Portis playing the role of workhorse
running back while Santana Moss and Chris Cooley get open inside and outside for the
suddenly accurate Jason Campbell. After throwing for 22 TDs and 17 INTs at a 58% clip in
his first two seasons combined, Campbell is completing 64.2% of his passes while throwing
six TDs and zero INTs. The Lions defense, allowing 32 points and 421 yards per game, should
not prove to be much impediment against Washington. WASHINGTON 26-14.
*JACKSONVILLE over CLEVELAND by 4
Oddly enough, Cleveland’s 3-4 defense has improved the last two weeks, against NFC East
strangers who were not familiar with the schemin’. The Jags and Browns haven’t met since
2005, so it may still be useful. However, it probably regresses from those last two efforts.
Although Cleveland is scoring only 16 points per game this season, the offensive personnel
is better than that – individually if not collectively. For Jacksonville, Downfield Dirk Koetter’s
quarterback is being sacked for 19 yards per game this season, nearly twice as many yards
per game as he was nailed for last season. That must really make first-season defensive
coordinator Gregg (I Was a Head Coach Once) Williams happy. Not. Cleveland’s improved
defense might sustain itself as long as big NT Shaun Rogers’ motor holds out, which may not
be much longer if the Jags used their bye week to get the offensive line back in sync. With
trouble all over that line, the Jags have averaged only 116 rushing yards per game (vs. an
AFC-best 153 last season). The 3-3 Jaguars are the only team in the NFL to have all its
games decided by a touchdown or less. They are a few plays from 6-0, a few plays from 0-
6, and due for a game – win or lose – with a margin greater than that although this doesn’t
necessarily have to be that game. JACKSONVILLE, 24-20.
SEATTLE over *SAN FRANCISCO by 3
A thumping from soft but sneaky Seattle heading into the bye week could engineer the
change that gets the 49er faithful’s hearts thumping. Trading in Mike Nolan for…. Mike
Holmgren? Such changes await the offseason, but it’s beyond obvious to any interested
observer that the 49ers players have lost faith in both their coaching staff and their quarterback.
J.T. O’Sullivan may be a good quarterback someday, but in the present he is merely
the league leader in turnovers with ten INTs and five fumbles lost. Desperation may force
Nolan to turn to Shaun Hill in what could be his last game as coach of the 49ers, but it will
make little difference to a team whose season was over the minute Nolan stepped on to the
field. If Seattle cleans up a few messes between Seneca Wallace and the rest of the offense,
or they return Hasselbeck behind center, they should be okay for this in-season revenge
match-up. SEATTLE 24-21.
MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 27
*TENNESSEE over INDIANAPOLIS by 5
Tennessee is due for a letdown. The problem is, when does it come? It’s too easy to assume
that the Colts will find a way here, and that Titans’ QB Kerry Collins will become the Man Who
Fell to Earth. But Collins is surrounded by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and one
of the best defensive lines in the NFL takes the field whenever Tennessee’s offense leaves it.
Titans’ head coach Jeff Fisher has been banging his head against the wall trying to assemble
the kind of team that can beat the division rival that has owned everyone else in the AFC
South for too long. He has had the good offensive line for a while. The defensive line has
caught up. We’re not going to say that KC stinks and discount what the Titans just did to
them. No sense knocking an unbeaten team for doing what it was supposed to do. For the
Colts, losing a non-conference road game (at Green Bay) is not a big deal. They can regroup
and come out and play much better. They might think that by taking this game seriously –
unlike the last time the teams met, when it was Tony Dungy’s Tank of the Year regular season
finale – that they can show up and win. But Tennessee is getting too good a push on both
sides of the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 57.2 QB Rating vs. the Titans. Peyton
Manning’s current rating of 80.0 is 14 points below his career average. TENNESSEE, 22-17
THE SPORTS REPORTER -NFL
NFL BEST BETS 72% WINNERS IN ‘08
BEST BET
*PHILADELPHIA over ATLANTA by 21
With the Eagles coming off a bye week, an opponent has finally had some time to take
a long, hard look at the Falcons, who were 4-2 ATS prior to their own bye. The margins
of those covers has been on the way down: +16.5, +18.5, +8.5, +4.5. With Philly
regrouping and getting key players back healthy, the prospect of Atlanta going out and
dominating the number with a rookie quarterback (video time for Eagles’ DC Jim
Johnson!) seems unlikely. The Eagles are one of 10 NFL defenses with a sub-60% pass
completion rate against, and the Falcons are one of 10 NFL offenses completing less
than 58% of their passes. Atlanta’s offensive turnover rate is the fourth-best in the NFL
but the Giants’ offense had the best ball-security rate until Cleveland’s defense had two
weeks to study some stuff and then picked Eli Manning three times. Falcons’ WR Roddy
White has been getting behind some opposing defenses but he probably won’t get
behind Eagles’ DB Asante Samuel. Atlanta’s 182 rushing yards per game is nice but Philly
has good depth on its defensive line and if McNabb and Co. get a lead, Atlanta’s running
game is in position to vaporize and leave Matt Ryan exposed to a defense with its ears
pinned back. PHILADELPHIA, 34-13.
BEST BET
*PITTSBURGH over NEW YORK GIANTS by 14
Despite pulling out the home victory against the 49ers in week seven, the Giants have
not looked crisp in either execution or effort these past two weeks and face a very difficult
non-conference opponent in the Steelers. With consecutive games against divisional
foes Dallas and Philadelphia on deck following the trip to the Steel City, Tom Coughlin
has to be worried about his team’s level of desire and effort this week. Despite a very
public spat with receiver Plaxico Burress during last week’s game, Burress may be one
of the few Giants that can be counted on showing up in this trip to his original franchise.
That being said, the Steelers know how to take Burress out of a game and it is a given
that the Pittsburgh corners will be manhandling him for 60 full minutes. Despite a leaky
offensive line that has given up their fair share of sacks, Ben Roethlisberger continues to
display incredible stubbornness and strength, refusing to go down when draped by
defenders and not giving up on plays. That type of tenacity will pay off in spades against
a visiting team whose greatest asset is their pass rush, but features a group of cornerbacks
that can be exploited. Look for the Steelers to target Aaron Ross, who has proven
susceptible to double moves and is at an all-time low in confidence. PITTSBURGH 28-14.
RECOMMENDED
*NEW YORK JETS over KANSAS CITY by 22
The downward spiral continues in Kansas City as Brodie Croyle suffered a season ending
injury last week, in his first game back from injury, and Damon Huard was knocked
out by an injury in the fourth quarter. Is this the dawn of the Tyler Thigpen era? You have
to think the Chiefs could do better with just about anybody, including Jeff George, but it’s
a predicament that ultimately will not matter in light of this team’s utter lack of talent.
Larry Johnson is also facing another suspension, this team league-mandated, for his
altercation with a woman at a nightclub. Things could not get much worse. The Jets are
feeling the blues after blowing the opportunity for road win in Oakland, in a game they
could have used in light of Buffalo’s performance, but have been served a gift from the
football gods in the form of a home game against the lowly Chiefs.Watch for the Jets to
come out throwing early, using Favre’s arm to jump out to an early lead which they will
milk with the running game against a Kansas City defense that allows an astonishing 182
yards per game on the ground. NEW YORK 31-9.
RECOMMENDED
*HOUSTON over CINCINNATI by 18
(Originally scheduled for a later date). This is reportedly the way Texans owner Bob
McNair wanted it in the aftermath of the Hurricane that postponed Houston’s home game
vs. Baltimore in Week 2. He got his way, and his team gained an edge. Cincinnati was
forced to switch its bye week from this Sunday to November 9. As it turns out, no NFL
team needs a bye more desperately right now than 0-7 SU Cincinnati. Bengali Svengali
Marvin Lewis has been getting competitive efforts in spots from a questionable collection
of talent, partly due to nice game-planning by new defensive coordinator Mike
Zimmer (ex-Dallas) against NFC opponents he knew. But the signs of a complete Bengals
breakdown are there, and that breakdown might have begun in the fourth quarter at
Pittsburgh last Sunday. Houston is one dog of a football team when it comes to the
spread, and despite the presence of DE Mario Williams, their pass rush isn’t the
Pittsburgh pass rush that sacked poor Ryan Fitzpatrick seven times last Sunday. But
every dog of a team has its day. The Texans can move the football and the frazzled defensive
brains of Zimmer/Lewis are preparing a tired bunch of losers for the strangest
opposing offense they’ve seen lately. The teams have not met since before Gary Kubiak
became head coach of the Texans. HOUSTON, 38-20.
*BALTIMORE over OAKLAND by 10
Former offensive line coach Tom Cable notched his first victory at home against Favre and
the Farce in week seven, but will find out quickly that facing the Ravens on the road is a completely
different venture. JaMarcus Russell remains a liability at QB, unable to apply touch to
most passes and lacking rhythm with his receivers. As a result, the Oakland offense runs as
often as possible to relieve pressure on Russell. That will make it that much easier for the
Ravens to bottle up any potential yardage gains for the Silver-and-Black. As a unit, the
Ravens defense allows a mere 66.4 yards per game on the ground and 154.4 yards through
the air. They should not have many problems meeting those high standards against one of
the most dysfunctional offensive units in football. On offense, the Ravens will try to keep
Willis McGahee rolling against a Raiders defense that has allowed 27 points per game,
including 115 yards per game on the ground. Nnamdi Asomugha’s presence on the outside
will make it tougher for Flacco Joe to find his favorite target, Derrick Mason, which should
increase the Ravens’ reliance on the running game. In the end, if Flacco does not implode,
the game belongs to the Ravens. BALTIMORE 20-10.
NEW ORLEANS over SAN DIEGO by 2 (at London, England)
London calling. The Intercontinental Clash of the Inter-Conference Non-Rivals. The Saints
failed to show up at Carolina despite finally having a full arsenal of offensive weapons. The
usually reliable Drew Brees could only muster up seven points on the road against Carolina.
Maybe they were just gearing up and saving up for the personal revenge game of Brees’ life,
against the team that allowed him to leave via free agency? "I felt like there was one person
who really just didn't quite believe in me like the rest of them," Brees said this past summer,
referring to Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith. "That's unfortunate.” Will it be unfortunate for San
Diego, who just got passed against for 25-of-30 in Buffalo by a second-season opposing
quarterback? These 3-4 SU teams face off in London, where the weather forecast says 60%
chance of precipitation. A big problem for the Chargers has been their running game, as
LaDainian Tomlinson has been clearly hampered by injuries and Norv Turner has refused to
give a full workload to back-up Darren Sproles. Chris Chambers’ ankle injury and Antonio
Gates’ nagging injuries have diluted the passing game and the defense’s overall softness has
hurt the Chargers all season. They have surrendered more points than the much-maligned
Denver Broncos, and only three fewer points than the Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints will be
without Reggie Bush for this game following a knee injury, but one more week of practice
reps should heighten the rhythm between Brees and Marques Colston, who was invisible last
week in his first game back from injury. If the other injury returnee, TE Shockey, can keep his
temper in check, the Saints should get it done. NEW ORLEANS 26-24.
BUFFALO over *MIAMI by 3
Trickery dickery dock. The Dolphins work the clock. But Pennington is a pet rock and their
defense is schlock. Trickery dickery dock. Buffalo’s secondary weathered a bad match-up
against San Diego’s receivers last Sunday, as well as an injury absence by DE Bo Schobel.
They get an easier draw here. Miami’s offense doesn’t know what it is from week to week
and pits its identity crisis against a defense that is beginning to make plays when it has to,
gaining confidence by the week. But the NFL road is a perpetually perplexing path. Trent
Edwards was almost too good for the Bills last Sunday, completing 25-of-30 passes against
the Chargers. Beware the Man Who Might Fall to Earth, but don’t confuse that with a ringing
endorsement of the Dolphins. Some of Penningstone’s worst performance as a Jetson came
against Buffalo’s defense – when it was injured. However, with the Jets, he had a running
game that couldn’t break a pane of glass. At the least the Dolphins have a pair of potentially
damaging running backs. BUFFALO, 23-20.
*DALLAS over TAMPA BAY by 9
We have a wounded animal returning to its own lair. The Bucs probably think they’ll be able
sneak in there and steal Dallas’ dinner. Arrgh. Beware. It didn’t matter to the Cowboys
whether they lost 34-14 or 15-14 at St. Louis last Sunday. They are back home off two sensational
defeats on the road, with a 0-0 scoreboard. What exists now is a big Dallas offensive
line pointed at a small Tampa Bay defensive front whose coordinator rarely calls for
blitzes, and whose Bucs defense has spent more time between the white lines than most
other NFL defenses this season. Dallas has RB Marion Barber to help keep it that way and
will pound Tampa Bay repeatedly in a scoreboard situation that does not figure to spin out of
control against the Cowboys early. There is also the very veteran QB Brad Johnson playing
quarterback for the Cowboys against the style of defense that he practiced against every day
in Tampa Bay for four seasons, and/or contributing what he knows about the Gruden offense
that he directed during those years. Not at all interested in joining a world that is poised to
pile on against the Dallas team from all angles when some angles of our own point the other
way. DALLAS, 26-17.
*NEW ENGLAND over ST. LOUIS by 11
The Rams’ very predictable twin-peaks successes vs. Washington and Dallas set them up
nicely for an immediate regression. Of course those two wins were predictable. One was a
Best Bet winner in Sports Reporter, the other a Best Best in the Midweek Update. The sparsely-
attended bandwagon stops between games to pick up the Johnny-come-latelys. But we
all tiptoe off the bus as the frantic masses push and shove to board it. They expect a juggernaut
ride with the Rams in the home of a “struggling” Patriots team that is forced to face
the upstarts off a short week following the Monday Night outing at Denver. But without setup
plays by the defense, the Rams’ offense can’t put enough points on the board. The
defense, predictably given the circumstances, made a few key plays in each of the two consecutive
so-called “upset” wins against two opponents who were in extremely negative situations
detailed in Sports Reporter and Midweek Update. We’ve been there, done that. The
Patriots don’t beat themselves and are capable of playing fine defense against the ordinary
offensive opponent, who was gaining less than 250 yards of total offense per game prior to
facing Dallas. NEW ENGLAND, 20-9.
ARIZONA over *CAROLINA by 1
The Cardinals come off their bye week and are expected to have the services of Anquan
Boldin as they travel to face the NFC South division-leading Panthers. Boldin’s return will be
essential to keeping Kurt Warner upright, as the pass rush will be fierce and having three
dependable receivers on the field will help Warner from getting killed on every three-step
drop. The Cardinals receivers will prove to be an intriguing match-up against a Carolina secondary
that has played well all season, but not yet been tested by a healthy elite offense.
Arizona will struggle to gain consistent yards with Edgerrin James and their offensive output
will be determined by their passing game. The Panthers will try to run the ball early and often
against a Cardinals defense that has been surprisingly stout against opposing running
games. Carolina’s success, or lack thereof, with their running game willl determine how
much Jake Delhomme throws the ball against what has been an inconsistent Arizona pass
defense. The Cardinals lack the one shutdown cornerback to match-up against Steve Smith,
but an extra week of preparation will give Ken Whisenhunt’s coaching staff some wrinkles in
their gameplan against the shifty wide receiver. Look for a close and hard-hitting game
replete with turnovers, but ultimately won by the team that has had more preparation. ARIZONA
24-23.
WASHINGTON over *DETROIT by 12
How much longer can the winless streak continue? With Dan Orlovsky at the helm, anything
is a possibility! The Lions at least made it interesting against Houston, but the outcome was
never seriously in doubt and it has become obvious that Rod Marinelli, the coach, is not much
better than Matt Millen, the exiled president. On the other side of the field, Jim Zorn the coach
is proving to be a big hit with the Redskins faithful. While it is unlikely the ’Skins keep up this
high level of play all season (look for the next hiccup next week),Washington has shown they
have the talent to compete with the big boys in their division. Seemingly out of nowhere, the
’Skins have the makings of a complete offense, with Clinton Portis playing the role of workhorse
running back while Santana Moss and Chris Cooley get open inside and outside for the
suddenly accurate Jason Campbell. After throwing for 22 TDs and 17 INTs at a 58% clip in
his first two seasons combined, Campbell is completing 64.2% of his passes while throwing
six TDs and zero INTs. The Lions defense, allowing 32 points and 421 yards per game, should
not prove to be much impediment against Washington. WASHINGTON 26-14.
*JACKSONVILLE over CLEVELAND by 4
Oddly enough, Cleveland’s 3-4 defense has improved the last two weeks, against NFC East
strangers who were not familiar with the schemin’. The Jags and Browns haven’t met since
2005, so it may still be useful. However, it probably regresses from those last two efforts.
Although Cleveland is scoring only 16 points per game this season, the offensive personnel
is better than that – individually if not collectively. For Jacksonville, Downfield Dirk Koetter’s
quarterback is being sacked for 19 yards per game this season, nearly twice as many yards
per game as he was nailed for last season. That must really make first-season defensive
coordinator Gregg (I Was a Head Coach Once) Williams happy. Not. Cleveland’s improved
defense might sustain itself as long as big NT Shaun Rogers’ motor holds out, which may not
be much longer if the Jags used their bye week to get the offensive line back in sync. With
trouble all over that line, the Jags have averaged only 116 rushing yards per game (vs. an
AFC-best 153 last season). The 3-3 Jaguars are the only team in the NFL to have all its
games decided by a touchdown or less. They are a few plays from 6-0, a few plays from 0-
6, and due for a game – win or lose – with a margin greater than that although this doesn’t
necessarily have to be that game. JACKSONVILLE, 24-20.
SEATTLE over *SAN FRANCISCO by 3
A thumping from soft but sneaky Seattle heading into the bye week could engineer the
change that gets the 49er faithful’s hearts thumping. Trading in Mike Nolan for…. Mike
Holmgren? Such changes await the offseason, but it’s beyond obvious to any interested
observer that the 49ers players have lost faith in both their coaching staff and their quarterback.
J.T. O’Sullivan may be a good quarterback someday, but in the present he is merely
the league leader in turnovers with ten INTs and five fumbles lost. Desperation may force
Nolan to turn to Shaun Hill in what could be his last game as coach of the 49ers, but it will
make little difference to a team whose season was over the minute Nolan stepped on to the
field. If Seattle cleans up a few messes between Seneca Wallace and the rest of the offense,
or they return Hasselbeck behind center, they should be okay for this in-season revenge
match-up. SEATTLE 24-21.
MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 27
*TENNESSEE over INDIANAPOLIS by 5
Tennessee is due for a letdown. The problem is, when does it come? It’s too easy to assume
that the Colts will find a way here, and that Titans’ QB Kerry Collins will become the Man Who
Fell to Earth. But Collins is surrounded by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and one
of the best defensive lines in the NFL takes the field whenever Tennessee’s offense leaves it.
Titans’ head coach Jeff Fisher has been banging his head against the wall trying to assemble
the kind of team that can beat the division rival that has owned everyone else in the AFC
South for too long. He has had the good offensive line for a while. The defensive line has
caught up. We’re not going to say that KC stinks and discount what the Titans just did to
them. No sense knocking an unbeaten team for doing what it was supposed to do. For the
Colts, losing a non-conference road game (at Green Bay) is not a big deal. They can regroup
and come out and play much better. They might think that by taking this game seriously –
unlike the last time the teams met, when it was Tony Dungy’s Tank of the Year regular season
finale – that they can show up and win. But Tennessee is getting too good a push on both
sides of the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 57.2 QB Rating vs. the Titans. Peyton
Manning’s current rating of 80.0 is 14 points below his career average. TENNESSEE, 22-17
The sports reporter - college
THE SPORTS REPORTER - COLLEGE
BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over ALABAMA by 6
Don’t underestimate the importance of this rivalry and what it could do for beleaguered
Vol coach Phil Fulmer. Alabama’s straight-up, physical style is a good match up for what
Fulmer has to offer. The Tide’s passing attack only works when the big ugglies are creating
holes for the backs. Slow that down and you have a shot. Look for the UT coaching
staff to walk super safety Eric Berry up to the line of scrimmage in run support, putting
more pressure on QB JP Wilson to make plays. Wilson has not been in a position
where the game rested on his right arm, and if history teaches us anything, it’s that he
doesn’t thrive under those conditions. The offense in Knoxville is not great, but it is
improving. QB Stephens now has two games under his belt and the staff is finding ways
to get the pigskin to play-makers Gerald Jones and Lennon Creer. 365-pound nose tackle
Cody is out with an injury, making that 3-4 defense look a lot less scary. Cody is one
of the biggest difference makers in college football this year and that fact will be highlighted
further via his absence. TENNESSEE, 23-17.
BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over VIRGINIA by 24
‘I’m Al Groh, from the NFL,’ says the Virginia head coach. ‘I’m Paul Johnson, from College
Football,’ says the Georgia Tech head coach. Says Groh, ‘We like to do basic stuff, play
smashmouth football and get physical.’ Says Johnson, ‘We have as many athletes as
you do, and we like to take basic stuff and tweak it to make it complicated for you to figure
out, and make it harder for you to be physical against us because you cannot hit what
you cannot touch.’ Groh to Johnson: ‘You mean you’re not going to play like that bland
North Carolina offense and you’re planning to force our defensive players to think?’
Johnson to Groh: ‘Yesh.’ Make Virginia come at you with something better than 3.5 yards
per carry and 5.4 yards per pass attempt if you’re going to be afraid of them after they’ve
covered three in a row. Georgia Tech’s defense was allowing a nation’s low 4.4 yards per
pass attempt prior to Clemson. They haven’t faced a dangerous passing attack all season
and when this is over, they still will not have faced a dangerous passing attack all
season. GEORGIA TECH, 34-10.
BEST BET
*LOUISVILLE over SOUTH FLORIDA by 7
South Florida is greatly overrated. You know that already. Their defense does not want to
be pounded repeatedly by a big offensive line. Louisville strings 306-318-315-296-309
together up front, representing 40-50-pound differences in the majority of the matchups.
Behind them is a good combination of power and speed in its running game with
238-pounder Bolen, and zippy little Victor Anderson. Louisville’s defense isn’t the greatest,
but first-season defensive coordinator Ron English (from Michigan) has been mixing
it up well enough to forestall and frustrate opposing offenses to some degree.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ special teams are excelling. South Florida’s pass rush will get
to Hunter Cantwell a time or three, but Louisville’s rushing push figures to minimize that
particular opposing defensive strength, while maximizing their own passing game.
LOUISVILLE, 27-20.
BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over *FLORIDA STATE by 8
When last seen under the Fun House lens of national TV Thursday, Florida State’s offense
was moving like a well-oiled machine in the second half against a depth-shy, tiring and
slow North Carolina State defense, whose offense was on the field for only 21:44. Today,
the Seminoles will get fewer chances, against a deeper and more talented defensive unit.
Good luck to them, for they will need it. When Florida State’s offense cannot run the ball,
Florida State needs lots o’ luck to compete. Frank Beamer and staff tend to not sprinkle
opposing teams with magic dust, and Virginia Tech’s defense has allowed only 3.5 yards
per carry. Florida State’s defense actually has the better rushing numbers. But when you
see that Colorado has averaged only 14 points per game in three games since facing
them, and Wake Forest only 9.6 points per game in three games since facing them, you
tend to want to make a habit of looking deeper than the flat stats for your clues. Hokies’
QB Tyrod Taylor had one fine day at quarterback vs. the Florida State defense last season,
and is back looking for more of the same. VIRGINIA TECH, 27-19.
RECOMMENDED
*MISSOURI over COLORADO by 30
Both Okie St. and Texas got the Tigers by the tail with their dynamic offense and fast
defense. Good news for the Mizzou faithful is that CU possesses neither. Gary Pinkel’s
offense always puts up yards, but they’ve turned it over more than the norm in two losses.
The Buffs don’t exactly fly to the football and fare much better against one-dimensional
offenses (see CSU and Kstate). It is likely that Dan Hawkins will trot out a few different
QBs, but he is preparing for the future and burned the redshirt of freshman QB
Tyler Hansen who should see the majority of snaps. The kid is dual-threat, but it’s asking
a lot for a kid fresh out of high school to direct an offense in this environment – especially
when operating behind a make shift o-line that’s missing multiple starters. He’ll
make the Mizzou defense study a little bit, but they’re dropping down from PhD level to
junior high this week and will ace the test. MISSOURI, 46-16.
RECOMMENDED
*CALIFORNIA over UCLA by 26
The Bruins defense was banged around by physical Stanford RB Gerhart last week and
now must handle speedster RB Best and his friends. Cal’s QB play has been inconsistent
so Tedford will reduce their role. UCLA gave up 250 on the ground at home to the Cardinal
whose offensive front five isn’t as talented as Cal’s. Head Bruin Nueheisel already has
two conference wins, knows that this one isn’t very winnable, and will shift focus and
priority to next week’s home game with Oregon St. He doesn’t have much in terms of a
ground attack and will ask QB Craft to drop back too often for his own good. The kid
makes mistakes when under pressure and he’ll hear the words of Freddie Mercury in his
ear all day. Don’t sweat the backdoor cover here, as the Bear third and fourth string
backs will be sniffing the end zone after the straight up win is in the bag. CAL, 39-13.
RECOMMENDED
*BYU over UNLV by 32
Although our Midweek Update readers took home a Best Bet win, Saturday’s straight up
loss to Air Force set UNLV on a course that will get bumpier by the minute. Hot seat head
coach Sanford is staring at another bowl-less season and a probable pink slip. He gets
a ticked off BYU team looking to gargle and spit the TCU game using UNLV as mouthwash.
Rebel opponents routinely post 500+ yards of total offense and the Cougars are
better with the ball than any of those opponents. The sole shot for road dog supporters
is that the underdog is capable of putting in 3 touchdowns to keep it somewhat
respectable. BYU, 55-23.
THE REST:
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23
*WEST VIRGINIA over AUBURN by 8
Straight-up fans will take the SEC visitor over the Big East host simply because they’ve been
drinking the spiked public punch served by the media. But the conferences are not playing
each other. The teams are.West Virginia’s “struggle” at Syracuse was a Pat White-less scrimmage.
Rest assured (for White), Auburn wasn’t scrimmaging when they lost to a lousy
Arkansas team. West Virginia’s defense is better than advertised and after they contain the
run, the different looks from the 3-3-5 figure to confound whichever sub-par, potentially
coach-killing Auburn quarterback is being asked to throw into it. WEST VIRGINIA, 24-16.
*AIR FORCE over NEW MEXICO by 11
The Fly Boys will like their chances to load the box and defend 35-40 runs by 235-pound
Lobos loads Ferguson and Wright, without being taken hostage vertically by the 47% completion
rate of QB Guner. Air Force out-gained New Mexico by 1.0 yards per offensive play
over the course of last season’s game, but made five turnovers and began five turnover-free
series on their own 19, 19, 24, 34 (with seconds till halftime) and 18, losing 34-31. Good
lucky to Rocky Long’s D in getting them pinned back that far and frequent again and good
luck to anyone looking for New Mexico to come anywhere near the 70 points they got vs. the
dying embers of the Aztec nation. AIR FORCE, 28-17.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
BOISE STATE over *SAN JOSE STATE by 4
Broncos are relying on the arm of a freshman QB to move the ball. Could be a highway to the
danger zone on the road this week vs. Tomey’s hard-nosed, no-nonsense Spartans. San Jose
has a good secondary – just ask NMSU QB Holbrook, who threw two pick 6’s last week. If
the ball bounces the right way, Boise could have its BCS bubble burst. BOISE STATE, 24-20.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
*ARMY over LOUISIANA TECH by 4
Army’s offense will continue its attempt to hone the ’Bone. Tech’s defense is quick enough
to penetrate, intercept laterals and pitchouts and run the other way with them. But it’s all very
strange to them and if they guess wrong, and Army doesn’t drop the ball or trip over their
own feet, then Tech’s defense will spend a lot of time chasing upfield, a direction their own
offense doesn’t quite grasp. Edge to Army’s defense in the match-up, since while containing
Tech’s desire to rush-rush-rush the ball, they can stand there, watching and waiting for visiting
passes to sail out of bounds, land short, or be dropped. ARMY, 24-20.
*MARYLAND over NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 17
Slow, depth-shy visiting defense is accompanied by lack of play-makers on the offense. NC
State wants to aim RB Andre Brown at Maryland’s small defensive front but after Maryland’s
offense takes advantage of the holes sitting there on the NC State defense, that particular
option becomes almost irrelevant. MARYLAND, 30-13.
*MIAMI-FL over WAKE FOREST by 7
Riley Skinner, Wake QB, is a good decision-maker but his arm isn’t the greatest, and his
offense’s overall vertical skills not good enough to consistently hit for plays against ACC athletes.
Wake Forest’s drastically reduced Run Ratio was advertised for you last week going
into the Maryland game and look what happened to them: 26-0 loss. Aha. If the Demon
Deacons are not doing 60% to 65% rushing plays, then they are fake Wake! Opponents will
seize upon that. They already have. Exposure leads to more difficult circumstances. More difficult
circumstances create obstacles. Obstacles create failures if they cannot be hurdled.
And, where’s their recently injured punter/placekicker? MIAMI-FL, 20-13.
NORTHWESTERN over *INDIANA by 12
Northwestern’s offense enjoys life in the cream puff section of the Big Ten aisle. The security
guards had advance notice and watched on the closed circuit as the Wilcats scarfed down
a Purdue pie last Saturday. The camera remains trained on them as they prepare to rifle
through a package of Hoosiers Hazelnut Butter Cremes. Indiana allows 160 rushing yards per
game, and now one of the Big Ten’s most productive running backs, Terrell Sutton (5.5 per
carry, 9.6 per reception), is coming through the aisle to eat their cookies. If Kellen Lewis’ high
ankle sprain is still bad, leaving Ben Chappel as the only Indiana QB on hand, then Indiana
cannot go on a shopping spree of their own to offset the damages. NORTHWESTERN, 36-24.
MINNESOTA over *PURDUE by 3
The Sporting News – straight-up squares – recently attempted to make a case that Purdue’s
defense was better than its 185-220 Run-Pass yield numbers in a story headlined: “Purdue
defensive stats misleading.” "Statistically, it's not a good defense," Purdue defensive tackle
Ryan Baker said. "In the back of my mind, it's a great defense." Translation: “In your dreams,
kid.” Too bad for him and the team that the game is not played in the back of his mind.
Rested and ready value-laden Gophers’ offense (turnovers no more) will spread ‘em and
spear ‘em. MINNESOTA, 30-27.
*NORTH CAROLINA over BOSTON COLLEGE by 3
The Heels are feeling the impact of the loss of their starting QB and play-making WR. Without
that tandem, Butch Davis asks his tailbacks to shoulder the load and hopes his defense gets
enough takeaways to win ball games. The formula leads to nail-biting, defensive
punt/turnover fests won in the final minutes. This game will be no different, with the difference
in the game being UNC’s ability to force the Eagles into mistakes. BC QB Crane is the
Adam Dunn of college football – he’s either hitting the big fly or striking out swinging. NORTH
CAROLINA, 16-13.
*CONNECTICUT over CINCINNATI by 4
The Cincinnati offense, down to the #4 quarterback, logged only 60 plays from scrimmage
in its first Big East game despite numerous 3-and-outs by the opposing Rutgers offense.
Being forced to abandon normal quick tempo is the biggest unseen problematic offshoot of
losing experienced starting quarterbacks. If it continues – and why not? -- then the Bearcats
will be about a dozen offensive plays short of where they were a year ago when upperclassman
#1 Ben Mauk was directing a snappier offense that had a better chance to wear
down opposing defenses. UConn, with its own #2 QB, was already planning on playing
“under” the influence of its own back-up QB’s limitations by handing it to RB Brown 35 times
a game. It’s a long-field staredown. You saw that final score prediction of 13-10 Rutgers vs.
UConn last week, vs. a final of 12-10? That’s what knowledge of tempo and available talent
does for your forecasting abilities. CONNECTICUT, 13-9.
*WISCONSIN over ILLINOIS by 3
Badger chasers would’ve had a better chance in the stock market the last four weeks – all
losses – the last two by an average of 32 points. They’ll move the ball on the Illini – but top
RBs Hill and Clay may be out with injuries sustained last week. Juice Williams directs an
offense that hits hard against lightweights, but can they hold up in Madison against a cornered
animal? Illinois’ best win on the season is transitional Michigan and despite their own
loss to Rich Rod, Wisky will get back in the “W” column this week. WISCONSIN, 28-25.
*PITTSBURGH over RUTGERS by 12
Sneak preview before this featured matinee: Rutgers’ offense to get untracked vs.
Syracuse’s 430 yards per game defense next game! In the meantime, Pittsburgh’s defense
is as sound as any in the recent string of Rutgers’ offensive struggles, the irony being that
our people have made money on Rutgers as they struggle. Compounding the problem in this
match-up is a Pitt running game that will wear down Rutgers’ small defensive line and help
set up the kinds of big plays to wideouts that Rutgers wishes their own running game was
consistent enough to create. PITTSBURGH, 28-16.
*IOWA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 7
Both squads will scratch and claw for what might be their only conference win. It’s year two
for Cyclone coach Chizik, year one for Aggie boss Sherman. The excuses are fewer for the
former so they’ll put all of their eggs in this basket to avoid a conference shutout. If their
unathletic athletes can’t contain A&M QB Johnson, it could be a long day for the home crowd.
IOWA STATE, 24-17.
*FLORIDA over KENTUCKY by 18
With the cocktail party on deck, don’t look for Urban Meyer to put QB Tebow in a position to
get hurt. Tebow was dinged for last year’s UGA game and the effects showed on the scoreboard.
Meyer can win this home game against the offensively challenged Wildcats with his
running game, special teams, and defense. Kentucky’s defense was shredded by 5’7 speed
back Michael Smith for 192 yards last week and Smith is a carbon copy of Florida’s tailbacks.
FLORIDA, 27-9.
MISSISSIPPI over *ARKANSAS by 7
Houston Nutt’s return to Fayetteville will be cordial, but you know that man wants to beat the
school that made him the villain of a silly soap opera. His offensive line is big, strong, and
simply better than the Razorback defensive front. Lanes will be there for the Rebel runners,
which will open up the passing game for developing QB Snead. Bobby P. has one real offensive
weapon and it shows – TB Michael Smith has 90 carries in the last three games. He’s
not a big kid, so how long can he carry the team? OLE MISS, 30-23.
*BALL STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 24
Ball State’s offense is balanced (195-260), moves chains, doesn’t turn it over, and is good in
the red zone. Their defense contains well enough and is also known for taking the ball away.
Eastern Michigan’s defense specializes in being penetrated. Their small-play offense gains a
lot of yards, mostly because in their rare instances the other team punts, EMU begins offensive
drives from their own 11-yard-line. BALL STATE, 41-17.
*VANDERBILT over DUKE by 6
This marks the first game since week one where Vandy isn’t out-gunned athletically.
Combine that with great coaching and good discipline, and the result is a hard-fought low
scoring home win. Coach Bobby Johnson is looking to move onward and upward and taking
Vanderbilt to their first bowl since the early 80’s looks great on a resume. This would be win
#6 and they’ll likely be underdogs in their final four. Devils’ offensive strength is the pass,
which plays to Vandy’s defensive strength. There are a couple NFLers in that secondary that
will make life tough on the visitors. VANDERBILT, 23-17.
*TULANE over RICE by 6
Toledo Bob and his home team had a week off to get ready for a team they beat by 14 points
on the road last season. Both offenses are converting about 45% on third down. Neither
defense features brute strength, and Tulane’s sack rate is declining as the season progresses.
But Tulane’s defensive third down conversion rate of 29% is very interesting, especially
when you compare it to Rice’s 50% defensive third down conversion rate. Rice’s idea of a
defensive stop is an interception. When it doesn’t come, they get cooked. TULANE, 34-28.
FRESNO STATE over *UTAH STATE by 17
The Bulldogs injury woes from last year have filtered into 2008. The defensive line has lost
four contributors and will likely go with four underclassmen this week. The bye week helped
move some from the training room to the locker room. Utah St. excels at giving up rushing
yards and Fresno runs it with the best of ‘em – averaging 236 yards on the ground per game.
If Fresno keeps it simple, they’ll put this one away with shear brute force alone. FRESNO
STATE, 38-21.
*NAVY over SMU by 17
Real estate developers are jealous of all the open spaces to be exploited on this grid. SMU is
throwing the ball on 70% of its offensive plays, and Navy’s kids can only defend vertical
attacks in match-ups held on water. SMU’s defense allows 5.2 yards per rush attempt – to
passing teams. Navy runs for 5.7 yards a pop, more than 300 yards per game. The Middies
might get 400 rushing yards in this match-up. SMU defensive coordinator Tom Mason – whwas Fresno State’s linebackers coach in the pass-happy WAC for the last seven years –picked a bad week to be him as Navy’s option attack produces a string of “what the ___?”
moments for himself and SMU’s other defensive big cheese Hundley, who last oversaw
UTEP’s matadors. NAVY, 48-31.
OREGON over *ARIZONA STATE by 8
Even since the home loss to UNLV, ASU seems to be going through the motions. There is little
direction, identity, or energy coming out of Tempe these days. Oregon wants to come in
and smash ‘em in the mouth early with a powerful RB duo. If the home dog can hang after
15 minutes, they will hang for the full 60. Coming off of a bye, look for a bit of renewed interest,
at least until they lose here and re-commence the tent-folding process. OREGON, 28-20.
*MIAMI-OH over KENT STATE by 4
Whichever quarterback breaks his pattern of “take snap, screw up,” will help his team more
than usual. The home defense is good, but has been sabotaged by the offensive unit, a lot.
Coming off their first MAC win, Miami-OH thinks they’re rolling but they suffered offensive
injuries last Saturday to a lineman and the starting RB. Kent is rested, ready, has a betterthan-
rated defense also sabotaged by bad offense, and is just as desperate to snap its own
MAC 0-fer. MIAMI-OH, 21-17.
*TEXAS over OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
Two ATS unbeatens do battle in Austin, the site of the Longhorns’ stampeding of Mizzou last
Saturday. Texas QB McCoy is the best QB in the country right now and despite a few solid
defensive showings recently, Oklahoma St. will have trouble getting to McCoy and throwing
him off his game. The Cowboys do man the most dynamic offense that a young defense has
seen to date, but nobody is running on Texas and that’s where Okie gets things started. WR
Dez Bryant is a beast – hauling in 56 passes for over 1K in yards. The #2 WR barely has double
digit catches, so look for defensive coordinator Muschamp to double Bryant in order to
make other guys beat him. TEXAS, 34-23.
*LSU over GEORGIA by 3
The Tiger offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against a Dawg front seven that
struggles to get off of blocks. When the safeties cheat up, LSU will hit a few big pass plays
with speedy wideouts going up against the UGA wide side corners, who routinely get beat.
Georgia will need to play a disciplined game in hostile territory to win, but they haven’t been
able to do that in their own house. LSU, 27-24.
OKLAHOMA over *KANSAS STATE by 21
OU’s running game will get healthy this week against the defensive sieve that is Kstate. When
they tire of the ground game, they’ll go to the air – not much resistance there either. The
Wildcats have a winnable in-state conference game at Kansas next week and won’t look to
kill themselves here unless the stars align and they are in it come the third quarter. Sooners
average 52 ppg in two true road games this year and will dance around that number again.
OKLAHOMA, 45-24.
*MICHIGAN over MICHIGAN STATE by 1
“Rich Rodriguez has failed so far at UM,” said the immaterial headline in a recent immaterial
story by a clown columnist in the Detroit Free-Press. Well, so have 60 other head coaches.
QB Steven Threet is hurt, but Michigan has shown so many offensive looks and players
this season that the Sparty smarties will be scratching their heads as they prepare.
Michigan’s defense drops in class to an offense that actually thought it could keep scoring a
lot of points with the Stud (Ringer) and the Stiff (Hoyer) as good defenses entered their
schedule. MICHIGAN, 20-19.
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over BOWLING GREEN by 8
Apparently, Jerry Kill paid extra to keep the mirrors working for now 5-1 ATS Northern Illinois,
which comes off a pounding of Toledo accomplished despite a quarterback plug-in. NIU’s
defense is second in the MAC in tackles for losses. NIU’s offense is currently doubling
Bowling Green’s rushing yards per game. BeeGees QB Tyler Sheehan drops back a lot. This
is an invitation to some travellin’ trouble for Bowling Green. NORTHERN ILLINOIS, 28-20.
NEW MEXICO STATE over *IDAHO by 17
Idaho’s pass defense ranks 110th nationally and they gave up 40+ to offensively challenged
La Tech last week. NMSU’s offense is much better than Tech’s and this Aggie team is fighting
for six wins and a potential bowl berth. QB Holbrook can name the score here and his
improving defensive mates will relish the opportunity to get the better of somebody. NEW
MEXICO STATE, 41-24.
*TCU over WYOMING by 29
Groundhog Day continues for Wyoming, -15 in Turnover Ratio and counting. They’ve had abye week to figure out who will cough it up and when against a defense that actually forces turnovers (+12 TO Ratio). When coach Glenn finally gets the first-season offensive coordinator
to stop calling the same pass that gets intercepted, and when they tape the ball into the
quarterback’s hand so that he doesn’t fumble and lose possession on negative-yardage
sacks, then Wyoming will have the ankle weights lifted and begin playing football, vs. whatever
it is they call what they’ve been doing. Any day now. People are waiting… while we’re
young. TCU, 38-9.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *TOLEDO by 7
Toledo’s starting QB is banged-up, and their defense lost a starting cornerback last week. Not
the best situation prior to facing a confident opposing offense that you’ll need to be answering,
probably time and again. CMU can only be confident about having gained more than 500
yards, and 38 points, against Western Michigan with fifth-year senior QB Brunner stepping
in for then-injured MAC Player of the Year Dan LeFevour. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 34-27
*NEBRASKA over BAYLOR by 14
The Bears are young and it shows on the road. After scoring in the first quarter last week in
Stillwater, the offense melted down like an Eastern European nuclear plant. Pelini’s Huskers
are finding their groove and will be motivated to return home and give the faithful something
to cheer about. Pelini needs to get to 5-3 with this win – ‘cause Oklahoma and Kansas are
up next. QB Ganz will direct his squad to 40+, meaning that the defense won’t have to be
great, just good enough. NEBRASKA, 42-28.
*KANSAS over TEXAS TECH by 4
Nice setup for the talented Jayhawks – conference game at home vs. a top 10 team. Texas
Tech’s defense has shown holes the last two weeks and Mangino is ready to exploit further.
His QB, Todd Reesing, is a tough customer with a knack for making plays. Tech’s offense will
put points on the board, but expect a much better defensive performance from the home
boys in Lawrence than what you saw in Norman last week. Good game between equally talented
teams that comes down to one or two plays. Kansas is good on special teams, so they
get the nod. KANSAS, 33-29.
PENN STATE over *OHIO STATE by 6
As we noted in the pre-season Zone Blitz, Penn State had a good shot at going 12-0. This
game was the biggest road block then, and it’s the biggest road block now. Fact is, Penn
State was the better team then, and they’re the better team now. Sure OSU blasted Sparty
45-7 and that looks sexy. Behind the score was a squad that averaged only 4.2 ypc and
racked up only 332 total yards. Jim Tressel was his conservative self – running it 52 times
to only 11 passes. They’ll have to be balanced this week if they are to take out the Big 10’s
best. He may need to replace QB Pryor with the vet Boeckman to do it. Lions will use a stout
run defense, QB pressure, and a dynamic offense to stay unbeaten. PENN STATE, 23-17.
*MEMPHIS over SOUTHERN MISS by 3
Suddenly, Memphis is definitely without #1 QB Arkelon Hall, possibly without #2 QB Will
Hudgens. Fine. Southern Miss is still a bunch of fakers making a second straight road trip
into the home of an opponent with playmakers. When you’re Southern Miss, and you can get
120 yards in only 17 carries from your #1 running back, and your QB can throw 461 yards
without a turnover, yet you cannot win or cover the spread, then you have other issues that
your first-season head coach cannot hide with offensive numbers that the fan base wanted
and must now live with in frequent defeat. MEMPHIS, 31-28.
NOTRE DAME over *WASHINGTON by 13
The Irish found a passing game that works against okay defenses – who cares if is consists
of only two pass plays. Washington’s defense isn’t just okay, it’s plain bad. QB Claussen
should enjoy a pain-free day and his WRs will have plenty of open green. The Huskies offense
didn’t look half-bad last week under the direction of a new QB, but he’ll need to be nearly
perfect to make up for the shortfalls in the defensive camp. NOTRE DAME, 30-17.
COLORADO STATE over *SAN DIEGO STATE by 5
Home coach Chuck Long after hitting a major new low last Saturday: “We have a very fragile
football team. There's not much confidence in the locker room right now. It's not a pretty
thing.” But not ugly enough that you’d find a recommendation on Colorado State as a road
favorite within these pages! COLORADO STATE, 27-22.
SOUTHERN CAL over *ARIZONA by 17
If the pre-game bus rocking routine before the Washington State game is an indication of
where USC is mentally, then Air Zona could be in for a beating. Pete Carroll defenses generally
swallow one-dimensional offenses like Charlie Weis swallows cheeseburgers. Wildcat
coach Stoops knows that he needs to be balanced, but they don’t have the horses in the
backfield or the mentality up front to get it done. In an attempt to get a “signature win,”
Stoops will ask his QB Tuitama to chuck it early and often. If his QB can survive the onslaught
of pressure, there is a slim shot at the upset. SOUTHERN CAL, 35-18.
NEVADA over *HAWAII by 6
Hawaii’s defense has gotten healthy against statue QB’s the past three games, but they’ll get
a steady dose of QB Kaepernick and his freakish athleticism this week. The dual-threat QB
leads an offense that averages over 300 on the ground per contest. Hawaii’s defense is an
aggressive one that errs on the side of flying to the ball over technique. That’s a dangerous
situation against a Nevada offense that can turn a crack into the Grand Canyon in a heartbeat.
NEVADA, 35-29.
*MISSISSIPPI STATE over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 10
Although some might argue, MSU has more SEC-caliber athletes than MTSU – but the margin
isn’t as large as it should be. Sylvester Croom’s offense is built to average 4-5 yards per
carry, so when they hit for 2-3, you get 3rd and 6 ten times per game. Maybe they convert
two against SEC teams – three or four against the Blue Raiders. Ugly win by bigger, stronger
players. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 23-13.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC over *LOUISIANA-MONROE by 4
FAU’s defense is among the nation’s bottom-dwellers in tackles for losses. The offense has
been bad in the red zone. Key words, “has been.” Things can change. Monrovian QB Kinsmon
Lancaster likes to think he can keep opponents flustered, but his offense didn’t start converting
third downs until North Texas’s alleged defense showed up on their doorstep last
Saturday. FAU has big receivers, Monrovian DBs are not making the plays they once made,
and it only takes one or two big plays from Rusty “Medium Play Seeking a Return to Big Play”
Smith to put ULM into futile chase mode. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 27-23.
TROY over *NORTH TEXAS by 21
Is the anti-North Texas value gone? They finally covered, by 6 points, last Saturday while Troy
could only straddle the number, as expected, with their new starting QB against offense-less
Florida International. Quarterback runs have disappeared from Troy’s offense with Hampton
sidelined for Brown. For North Texas in Monrovia last Saturday, the Vizza Man put the piggie
in the air 62 times without a pick. Mama mia! He’s due. TROY, 41-20.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*TULSA over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 24
Todd Graham, head coach of Tulsa, to Gorgeous George O’Leary of the visitor: ‘Say, you guys
don’t look like the same team that thrashed us in the C-USA Championship Game on your
home field last season, when you ran the nation’s leading rusher Kevin Smith for 284 yards
and our defense was posing for Matador crackers. We’d like to kill you for revenge anyway,
since you still can’t throw the ball. Our people will be very dismayed if we don’t allow the
disparity between our respective offenses’ total yardage per game, 615 vs. 247, to play out
on the scoreboard. TULSA, 44-20.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28
BUFFALO over *OHIO by 1
Ohio’s offense is a busted play waiting to happen. Buffalo’s defense can make it happen.
Ohio’s defense is 11 bowling pins waiting to be plowed through by a solid rushing attack.
Buffalo’s offense can make it happen. BUFFALO, 24-23.
HOUSTON over *MARSHALL by 10
Playing at the nation’s quickest tempo helps Houston really wear down opposing defenses in
the second half. They have out-scored SMU by 17, UAB by 42, ECU by 6, Colorado State by
15, Air Force by 7 in the second half. The sharpest bettors in America – halftime bettors –
are loving this team. Full game bettors hate them because they aren’t more efficient early.
Marshall is the Blundering Herd who managed to log only 58 offensive plays at defense-less
UAB. HOUSTON, 37-27.
THE SPORTS REPORTER - COLLEGE
BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over ALABAMA by 6
Don’t underestimate the importance of this rivalry and what it could do for beleaguered
Vol coach Phil Fulmer. Alabama’s straight-up, physical style is a good match up for what
Fulmer has to offer. The Tide’s passing attack only works when the big ugglies are creating
holes for the backs. Slow that down and you have a shot. Look for the UT coaching
staff to walk super safety Eric Berry up to the line of scrimmage in run support, putting
more pressure on QB JP Wilson to make plays. Wilson has not been in a position
where the game rested on his right arm, and if history teaches us anything, it’s that he
doesn’t thrive under those conditions. The offense in Knoxville is not great, but it is
improving. QB Stephens now has two games under his belt and the staff is finding ways
to get the pigskin to play-makers Gerald Jones and Lennon Creer. 365-pound nose tackle
Cody is out with an injury, making that 3-4 defense look a lot less scary. Cody is one
of the biggest difference makers in college football this year and that fact will be highlighted
further via his absence. TENNESSEE, 23-17.
BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over VIRGINIA by 24
‘I’m Al Groh, from the NFL,’ says the Virginia head coach. ‘I’m Paul Johnson, from College
Football,’ says the Georgia Tech head coach. Says Groh, ‘We like to do basic stuff, play
smashmouth football and get physical.’ Says Johnson, ‘We have as many athletes as
you do, and we like to take basic stuff and tweak it to make it complicated for you to figure
out, and make it harder for you to be physical against us because you cannot hit what
you cannot touch.’ Groh to Johnson: ‘You mean you’re not going to play like that bland
North Carolina offense and you’re planning to force our defensive players to think?’
Johnson to Groh: ‘Yesh.’ Make Virginia come at you with something better than 3.5 yards
per carry and 5.4 yards per pass attempt if you’re going to be afraid of them after they’ve
covered three in a row. Georgia Tech’s defense was allowing a nation’s low 4.4 yards per
pass attempt prior to Clemson. They haven’t faced a dangerous passing attack all season
and when this is over, they still will not have faced a dangerous passing attack all
season. GEORGIA TECH, 34-10.
BEST BET
*LOUISVILLE over SOUTH FLORIDA by 7
South Florida is greatly overrated. You know that already. Their defense does not want to
be pounded repeatedly by a big offensive line. Louisville strings 306-318-315-296-309
together up front, representing 40-50-pound differences in the majority of the matchups.
Behind them is a good combination of power and speed in its running game with
238-pounder Bolen, and zippy little Victor Anderson. Louisville’s defense isn’t the greatest,
but first-season defensive coordinator Ron English (from Michigan) has been mixing
it up well enough to forestall and frustrate opposing offenses to some degree.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ special teams are excelling. South Florida’s pass rush will get
to Hunter Cantwell a time or three, but Louisville’s rushing push figures to minimize that
particular opposing defensive strength, while maximizing their own passing game.
LOUISVILLE, 27-20.
BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over *FLORIDA STATE by 8
When last seen under the Fun House lens of national TV Thursday, Florida State’s offense
was moving like a well-oiled machine in the second half against a depth-shy, tiring and
slow North Carolina State defense, whose offense was on the field for only 21:44. Today,
the Seminoles will get fewer chances, against a deeper and more talented defensive unit.
Good luck to them, for they will need it. When Florida State’s offense cannot run the ball,
Florida State needs lots o’ luck to compete. Frank Beamer and staff tend to not sprinkle
opposing teams with magic dust, and Virginia Tech’s defense has allowed only 3.5 yards
per carry. Florida State’s defense actually has the better rushing numbers. But when you
see that Colorado has averaged only 14 points per game in three games since facing
them, and Wake Forest only 9.6 points per game in three games since facing them, you
tend to want to make a habit of looking deeper than the flat stats for your clues. Hokies’
QB Tyrod Taylor had one fine day at quarterback vs. the Florida State defense last season,
and is back looking for more of the same. VIRGINIA TECH, 27-19.
RECOMMENDED
*MISSOURI over COLORADO by 30
Both Okie St. and Texas got the Tigers by the tail with their dynamic offense and fast
defense. Good news for the Mizzou faithful is that CU possesses neither. Gary Pinkel’s
offense always puts up yards, but they’ve turned it over more than the norm in two losses.
The Buffs don’t exactly fly to the football and fare much better against one-dimensional
offenses (see CSU and Kstate). It is likely that Dan Hawkins will trot out a few different
QBs, but he is preparing for the future and burned the redshirt of freshman QB
Tyler Hansen who should see the majority of snaps. The kid is dual-threat, but it’s asking
a lot for a kid fresh out of high school to direct an offense in this environment – especially
when operating behind a make shift o-line that’s missing multiple starters. He’ll
make the Mizzou defense study a little bit, but they’re dropping down from PhD level to
junior high this week and will ace the test. MISSOURI, 46-16.
RECOMMENDED
*CALIFORNIA over UCLA by 26
The Bruins defense was banged around by physical Stanford RB Gerhart last week and
now must handle speedster RB Best and his friends. Cal’s QB play has been inconsistent
so Tedford will reduce their role. UCLA gave up 250 on the ground at home to the Cardinal
whose offensive front five isn’t as talented as Cal’s. Head Bruin Nueheisel already has
two conference wins, knows that this one isn’t very winnable, and will shift focus and
priority to next week’s home game with Oregon St. He doesn’t have much in terms of a
ground attack and will ask QB Craft to drop back too often for his own good. The kid
makes mistakes when under pressure and he’ll hear the words of Freddie Mercury in his
ear all day. Don’t sweat the backdoor cover here, as the Bear third and fourth string
backs will be sniffing the end zone after the straight up win is in the bag. CAL, 39-13.
RECOMMENDED
*BYU over UNLV by 32
Although our Midweek Update readers took home a Best Bet win, Saturday’s straight up
loss to Air Force set UNLV on a course that will get bumpier by the minute. Hot seat head
coach Sanford is staring at another bowl-less season and a probable pink slip. He gets
a ticked off BYU team looking to gargle and spit the TCU game using UNLV as mouthwash.
Rebel opponents routinely post 500+ yards of total offense and the Cougars are
better with the ball than any of those opponents. The sole shot for road dog supporters
is that the underdog is capable of putting in 3 touchdowns to keep it somewhat
respectable. BYU, 55-23.
THE REST:
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23
*WEST VIRGINIA over AUBURN by 8
Straight-up fans will take the SEC visitor over the Big East host simply because they’ve been
drinking the spiked public punch served by the media. But the conferences are not playing
each other. The teams are.West Virginia’s “struggle” at Syracuse was a Pat White-less scrimmage.
Rest assured (for White), Auburn wasn’t scrimmaging when they lost to a lousy
Arkansas team. West Virginia’s defense is better than advertised and after they contain the
run, the different looks from the 3-3-5 figure to confound whichever sub-par, potentially
coach-killing Auburn quarterback is being asked to throw into it. WEST VIRGINIA, 24-16.
*AIR FORCE over NEW MEXICO by 11
The Fly Boys will like their chances to load the box and defend 35-40 runs by 235-pound
Lobos loads Ferguson and Wright, without being taken hostage vertically by the 47% completion
rate of QB Guner. Air Force out-gained New Mexico by 1.0 yards per offensive play
over the course of last season’s game, but made five turnovers and began five turnover-free
series on their own 19, 19, 24, 34 (with seconds till halftime) and 18, losing 34-31. Good
lucky to Rocky Long’s D in getting them pinned back that far and frequent again and good
luck to anyone looking for New Mexico to come anywhere near the 70 points they got vs. the
dying embers of the Aztec nation. AIR FORCE, 28-17.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
BOISE STATE over *SAN JOSE STATE by 4
Broncos are relying on the arm of a freshman QB to move the ball. Could be a highway to the
danger zone on the road this week vs. Tomey’s hard-nosed, no-nonsense Spartans. San Jose
has a good secondary – just ask NMSU QB Holbrook, who threw two pick 6’s last week. If
the ball bounces the right way, Boise could have its BCS bubble burst. BOISE STATE, 24-20.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
*ARMY over LOUISIANA TECH by 4
Army’s offense will continue its attempt to hone the ’Bone. Tech’s defense is quick enough
to penetrate, intercept laterals and pitchouts and run the other way with them. But it’s all very
strange to them and if they guess wrong, and Army doesn’t drop the ball or trip over their
own feet, then Tech’s defense will spend a lot of time chasing upfield, a direction their own
offense doesn’t quite grasp. Edge to Army’s defense in the match-up, since while containing
Tech’s desire to rush-rush-rush the ball, they can stand there, watching and waiting for visiting
passes to sail out of bounds, land short, or be dropped. ARMY, 24-20.
*MARYLAND over NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 17
Slow, depth-shy visiting defense is accompanied by lack of play-makers on the offense. NC
State wants to aim RB Andre Brown at Maryland’s small defensive front but after Maryland’s
offense takes advantage of the holes sitting there on the NC State defense, that particular
option becomes almost irrelevant. MARYLAND, 30-13.
*MIAMI-FL over WAKE FOREST by 7
Riley Skinner, Wake QB, is a good decision-maker but his arm isn’t the greatest, and his
offense’s overall vertical skills not good enough to consistently hit for plays against ACC athletes.
Wake Forest’s drastically reduced Run Ratio was advertised for you last week going
into the Maryland game and look what happened to them: 26-0 loss. Aha. If the Demon
Deacons are not doing 60% to 65% rushing plays, then they are fake Wake! Opponents will
seize upon that. They already have. Exposure leads to more difficult circumstances. More difficult
circumstances create obstacles. Obstacles create failures if they cannot be hurdled.
And, where’s their recently injured punter/placekicker? MIAMI-FL, 20-13.
NORTHWESTERN over *INDIANA by 12
Northwestern’s offense enjoys life in the cream puff section of the Big Ten aisle. The security
guards had advance notice and watched on the closed circuit as the Wilcats scarfed down
a Purdue pie last Saturday. The camera remains trained on them as they prepare to rifle
through a package of Hoosiers Hazelnut Butter Cremes. Indiana allows 160 rushing yards per
game, and now one of the Big Ten’s most productive running backs, Terrell Sutton (5.5 per
carry, 9.6 per reception), is coming through the aisle to eat their cookies. If Kellen Lewis’ high
ankle sprain is still bad, leaving Ben Chappel as the only Indiana QB on hand, then Indiana
cannot go on a shopping spree of their own to offset the damages. NORTHWESTERN, 36-24.
MINNESOTA over *PURDUE by 3
The Sporting News – straight-up squares – recently attempted to make a case that Purdue’s
defense was better than its 185-220 Run-Pass yield numbers in a story headlined: “Purdue
defensive stats misleading.” "Statistically, it's not a good defense," Purdue defensive tackle
Ryan Baker said. "In the back of my mind, it's a great defense." Translation: “In your dreams,
kid.” Too bad for him and the team that the game is not played in the back of his mind.
Rested and ready value-laden Gophers’ offense (turnovers no more) will spread ‘em and
spear ‘em. MINNESOTA, 30-27.
*NORTH CAROLINA over BOSTON COLLEGE by 3
The Heels are feeling the impact of the loss of their starting QB and play-making WR. Without
that tandem, Butch Davis asks his tailbacks to shoulder the load and hopes his defense gets
enough takeaways to win ball games. The formula leads to nail-biting, defensive
punt/turnover fests won in the final minutes. This game will be no different, with the difference
in the game being UNC’s ability to force the Eagles into mistakes. BC QB Crane is the
Adam Dunn of college football – he’s either hitting the big fly or striking out swinging. NORTH
CAROLINA, 16-13.
*CONNECTICUT over CINCINNATI by 4
The Cincinnati offense, down to the #4 quarterback, logged only 60 plays from scrimmage
in its first Big East game despite numerous 3-and-outs by the opposing Rutgers offense.
Being forced to abandon normal quick tempo is the biggest unseen problematic offshoot of
losing experienced starting quarterbacks. If it continues – and why not? -- then the Bearcats
will be about a dozen offensive plays short of where they were a year ago when upperclassman
#1 Ben Mauk was directing a snappier offense that had a better chance to wear
down opposing defenses. UConn, with its own #2 QB, was already planning on playing
“under” the influence of its own back-up QB’s limitations by handing it to RB Brown 35 times
a game. It’s a long-field staredown. You saw that final score prediction of 13-10 Rutgers vs.
UConn last week, vs. a final of 12-10? That’s what knowledge of tempo and available talent
does for your forecasting abilities. CONNECTICUT, 13-9.
*WISCONSIN over ILLINOIS by 3
Badger chasers would’ve had a better chance in the stock market the last four weeks – all
losses – the last two by an average of 32 points. They’ll move the ball on the Illini – but top
RBs Hill and Clay may be out with injuries sustained last week. Juice Williams directs an
offense that hits hard against lightweights, but can they hold up in Madison against a cornered
animal? Illinois’ best win on the season is transitional Michigan and despite their own
loss to Rich Rod, Wisky will get back in the “W” column this week. WISCONSIN, 28-25.
*PITTSBURGH over RUTGERS by 12
Sneak preview before this featured matinee: Rutgers’ offense to get untracked vs.
Syracuse’s 430 yards per game defense next game! In the meantime, Pittsburgh’s defense
is as sound as any in the recent string of Rutgers’ offensive struggles, the irony being that
our people have made money on Rutgers as they struggle. Compounding the problem in this
match-up is a Pitt running game that will wear down Rutgers’ small defensive line and help
set up the kinds of big plays to wideouts that Rutgers wishes their own running game was
consistent enough to create. PITTSBURGH, 28-16.
*IOWA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 7
Both squads will scratch and claw for what might be their only conference win. It’s year two
for Cyclone coach Chizik, year one for Aggie boss Sherman. The excuses are fewer for the
former so they’ll put all of their eggs in this basket to avoid a conference shutout. If their
unathletic athletes can’t contain A&M QB Johnson, it could be a long day for the home crowd.
IOWA STATE, 24-17.
*FLORIDA over KENTUCKY by 18
With the cocktail party on deck, don’t look for Urban Meyer to put QB Tebow in a position to
get hurt. Tebow was dinged for last year’s UGA game and the effects showed on the scoreboard.
Meyer can win this home game against the offensively challenged Wildcats with his
running game, special teams, and defense. Kentucky’s defense was shredded by 5’7 speed
back Michael Smith for 192 yards last week and Smith is a carbon copy of Florida’s tailbacks.
FLORIDA, 27-9.
MISSISSIPPI over *ARKANSAS by 7
Houston Nutt’s return to Fayetteville will be cordial, but you know that man wants to beat the
school that made him the villain of a silly soap opera. His offensive line is big, strong, and
simply better than the Razorback defensive front. Lanes will be there for the Rebel runners,
which will open up the passing game for developing QB Snead. Bobby P. has one real offensive
weapon and it shows – TB Michael Smith has 90 carries in the last three games. He’s
not a big kid, so how long can he carry the team? OLE MISS, 30-23.
*BALL STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 24
Ball State’s offense is balanced (195-260), moves chains, doesn’t turn it over, and is good in
the red zone. Their defense contains well enough and is also known for taking the ball away.
Eastern Michigan’s defense specializes in being penetrated. Their small-play offense gains a
lot of yards, mostly because in their rare instances the other team punts, EMU begins offensive
drives from their own 11-yard-line. BALL STATE, 41-17.
*VANDERBILT over DUKE by 6
This marks the first game since week one where Vandy isn’t out-gunned athletically.
Combine that with great coaching and good discipline, and the result is a hard-fought low
scoring home win. Coach Bobby Johnson is looking to move onward and upward and taking
Vanderbilt to their first bowl since the early 80’s looks great on a resume. This would be win
#6 and they’ll likely be underdogs in their final four. Devils’ offensive strength is the pass,
which plays to Vandy’s defensive strength. There are a couple NFLers in that secondary that
will make life tough on the visitors. VANDERBILT, 23-17.
*TULANE over RICE by 6
Toledo Bob and his home team had a week off to get ready for a team they beat by 14 points
on the road last season. Both offenses are converting about 45% on third down. Neither
defense features brute strength, and Tulane’s sack rate is declining as the season progresses.
But Tulane’s defensive third down conversion rate of 29% is very interesting, especially
when you compare it to Rice’s 50% defensive third down conversion rate. Rice’s idea of a
defensive stop is an interception. When it doesn’t come, they get cooked. TULANE, 34-28.
FRESNO STATE over *UTAH STATE by 17
The Bulldogs injury woes from last year have filtered into 2008. The defensive line has lost
four contributors and will likely go with four underclassmen this week. The bye week helped
move some from the training room to the locker room. Utah St. excels at giving up rushing
yards and Fresno runs it with the best of ‘em – averaging 236 yards on the ground per game.
If Fresno keeps it simple, they’ll put this one away with shear brute force alone. FRESNO
STATE, 38-21.
*NAVY over SMU by 17
Real estate developers are jealous of all the open spaces to be exploited on this grid. SMU is
throwing the ball on 70% of its offensive plays, and Navy’s kids can only defend vertical
attacks in match-ups held on water. SMU’s defense allows 5.2 yards per rush attempt – to
passing teams. Navy runs for 5.7 yards a pop, more than 300 yards per game. The Middies
might get 400 rushing yards in this match-up. SMU defensive coordinator Tom Mason – whwas Fresno State’s linebackers coach in the pass-happy WAC for the last seven years –picked a bad week to be him as Navy’s option attack produces a string of “what the ___?”
moments for himself and SMU’s other defensive big cheese Hundley, who last oversaw
UTEP’s matadors. NAVY, 48-31.
OREGON over *ARIZONA STATE by 8
Even since the home loss to UNLV, ASU seems to be going through the motions. There is little
direction, identity, or energy coming out of Tempe these days. Oregon wants to come in
and smash ‘em in the mouth early with a powerful RB duo. If the home dog can hang after
15 minutes, they will hang for the full 60. Coming off of a bye, look for a bit of renewed interest,
at least until they lose here and re-commence the tent-folding process. OREGON, 28-20.
*MIAMI-OH over KENT STATE by 4
Whichever quarterback breaks his pattern of “take snap, screw up,” will help his team more
than usual. The home defense is good, but has been sabotaged by the offensive unit, a lot.
Coming off their first MAC win, Miami-OH thinks they’re rolling but they suffered offensive
injuries last Saturday to a lineman and the starting RB. Kent is rested, ready, has a betterthan-
rated defense also sabotaged by bad offense, and is just as desperate to snap its own
MAC 0-fer. MIAMI-OH, 21-17.
*TEXAS over OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
Two ATS unbeatens do battle in Austin, the site of the Longhorns’ stampeding of Mizzou last
Saturday. Texas QB McCoy is the best QB in the country right now and despite a few solid
defensive showings recently, Oklahoma St. will have trouble getting to McCoy and throwing
him off his game. The Cowboys do man the most dynamic offense that a young defense has
seen to date, but nobody is running on Texas and that’s where Okie gets things started. WR
Dez Bryant is a beast – hauling in 56 passes for over 1K in yards. The #2 WR barely has double
digit catches, so look for defensive coordinator Muschamp to double Bryant in order to
make other guys beat him. TEXAS, 34-23.
*LSU over GEORGIA by 3
The Tiger offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against a Dawg front seven that
struggles to get off of blocks. When the safeties cheat up, LSU will hit a few big pass plays
with speedy wideouts going up against the UGA wide side corners, who routinely get beat.
Georgia will need to play a disciplined game in hostile territory to win, but they haven’t been
able to do that in their own house. LSU, 27-24.
OKLAHOMA over *KANSAS STATE by 21
OU’s running game will get healthy this week against the defensive sieve that is Kstate. When
they tire of the ground game, they’ll go to the air – not much resistance there either. The
Wildcats have a winnable in-state conference game at Kansas next week and won’t look to
kill themselves here unless the stars align and they are in it come the third quarter. Sooners
average 52 ppg in two true road games this year and will dance around that number again.
OKLAHOMA, 45-24.
*MICHIGAN over MICHIGAN STATE by 1
“Rich Rodriguez has failed so far at UM,” said the immaterial headline in a recent immaterial
story by a clown columnist in the Detroit Free-Press. Well, so have 60 other head coaches.
QB Steven Threet is hurt, but Michigan has shown so many offensive looks and players
this season that the Sparty smarties will be scratching their heads as they prepare.
Michigan’s defense drops in class to an offense that actually thought it could keep scoring a
lot of points with the Stud (Ringer) and the Stiff (Hoyer) as good defenses entered their
schedule. MICHIGAN, 20-19.
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over BOWLING GREEN by 8
Apparently, Jerry Kill paid extra to keep the mirrors working for now 5-1 ATS Northern Illinois,
which comes off a pounding of Toledo accomplished despite a quarterback plug-in. NIU’s
defense is second in the MAC in tackles for losses. NIU’s offense is currently doubling
Bowling Green’s rushing yards per game. BeeGees QB Tyler Sheehan drops back a lot. This
is an invitation to some travellin’ trouble for Bowling Green. NORTHERN ILLINOIS, 28-20.
NEW MEXICO STATE over *IDAHO by 17
Idaho’s pass defense ranks 110th nationally and they gave up 40+ to offensively challenged
La Tech last week. NMSU’s offense is much better than Tech’s and this Aggie team is fighting
for six wins and a potential bowl berth. QB Holbrook can name the score here and his
improving defensive mates will relish the opportunity to get the better of somebody. NEW
MEXICO STATE, 41-24.
*TCU over WYOMING by 29
Groundhog Day continues for Wyoming, -15 in Turnover Ratio and counting. They’ve had abye week to figure out who will cough it up and when against a defense that actually forces turnovers (+12 TO Ratio). When coach Glenn finally gets the first-season offensive coordinator
to stop calling the same pass that gets intercepted, and when they tape the ball into the
quarterback’s hand so that he doesn’t fumble and lose possession on negative-yardage
sacks, then Wyoming will have the ankle weights lifted and begin playing football, vs. whatever
it is they call what they’ve been doing. Any day now. People are waiting… while we’re
young. TCU, 38-9.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *TOLEDO by 7
Toledo’s starting QB is banged-up, and their defense lost a starting cornerback last week. Not
the best situation prior to facing a confident opposing offense that you’ll need to be answering,
probably time and again. CMU can only be confident about having gained more than 500
yards, and 38 points, against Western Michigan with fifth-year senior QB Brunner stepping
in for then-injured MAC Player of the Year Dan LeFevour. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 34-27
*NEBRASKA over BAYLOR by 14
The Bears are young and it shows on the road. After scoring in the first quarter last week in
Stillwater, the offense melted down like an Eastern European nuclear plant. Pelini’s Huskers
are finding their groove and will be motivated to return home and give the faithful something
to cheer about. Pelini needs to get to 5-3 with this win – ‘cause Oklahoma and Kansas are
up next. QB Ganz will direct his squad to 40+, meaning that the defense won’t have to be
great, just good enough. NEBRASKA, 42-28.
*KANSAS over TEXAS TECH by 4
Nice setup for the talented Jayhawks – conference game at home vs. a top 10 team. Texas
Tech’s defense has shown holes the last two weeks and Mangino is ready to exploit further.
His QB, Todd Reesing, is a tough customer with a knack for making plays. Tech’s offense will
put points on the board, but expect a much better defensive performance from the home
boys in Lawrence than what you saw in Norman last week. Good game between equally talented
teams that comes down to one or two plays. Kansas is good on special teams, so they
get the nod. KANSAS, 33-29.
PENN STATE over *OHIO STATE by 6
As we noted in the pre-season Zone Blitz, Penn State had a good shot at going 12-0. This
game was the biggest road block then, and it’s the biggest road block now. Fact is, Penn
State was the better team then, and they’re the better team now. Sure OSU blasted Sparty
45-7 and that looks sexy. Behind the score was a squad that averaged only 4.2 ypc and
racked up only 332 total yards. Jim Tressel was his conservative self – running it 52 times
to only 11 passes. They’ll have to be balanced this week if they are to take out the Big 10’s
best. He may need to replace QB Pryor with the vet Boeckman to do it. Lions will use a stout
run defense, QB pressure, and a dynamic offense to stay unbeaten. PENN STATE, 23-17.
*MEMPHIS over SOUTHERN MISS by 3
Suddenly, Memphis is definitely without #1 QB Arkelon Hall, possibly without #2 QB Will
Hudgens. Fine. Southern Miss is still a bunch of fakers making a second straight road trip
into the home of an opponent with playmakers. When you’re Southern Miss, and you can get
120 yards in only 17 carries from your #1 running back, and your QB can throw 461 yards
without a turnover, yet you cannot win or cover the spread, then you have other issues that
your first-season head coach cannot hide with offensive numbers that the fan base wanted
and must now live with in frequent defeat. MEMPHIS, 31-28.
NOTRE DAME over *WASHINGTON by 13
The Irish found a passing game that works against okay defenses – who cares if is consists
of only two pass plays. Washington’s defense isn’t just okay, it’s plain bad. QB Claussen
should enjoy a pain-free day and his WRs will have plenty of open green. The Huskies offense
didn’t look half-bad last week under the direction of a new QB, but he’ll need to be nearly
perfect to make up for the shortfalls in the defensive camp. NOTRE DAME, 30-17.
COLORADO STATE over *SAN DIEGO STATE by 5
Home coach Chuck Long after hitting a major new low last Saturday: “We have a very fragile
football team. There's not much confidence in the locker room right now. It's not a pretty
thing.” But not ugly enough that you’d find a recommendation on Colorado State as a road
favorite within these pages! COLORADO STATE, 27-22.
SOUTHERN CAL over *ARIZONA by 17
If the pre-game bus rocking routine before the Washington State game is an indication of
where USC is mentally, then Air Zona could be in for a beating. Pete Carroll defenses generally
swallow one-dimensional offenses like Charlie Weis swallows cheeseburgers. Wildcat
coach Stoops knows that he needs to be balanced, but they don’t have the horses in the
backfield or the mentality up front to get it done. In an attempt to get a “signature win,”
Stoops will ask his QB Tuitama to chuck it early and often. If his QB can survive the onslaught
of pressure, there is a slim shot at the upset. SOUTHERN CAL, 35-18.
NEVADA over *HAWAII by 6
Hawaii’s defense has gotten healthy against statue QB’s the past three games, but they’ll get
a steady dose of QB Kaepernick and his freakish athleticism this week. The dual-threat QB
leads an offense that averages over 300 on the ground per contest. Hawaii’s defense is an
aggressive one that errs on the side of flying to the ball over technique. That’s a dangerous
situation against a Nevada offense that can turn a crack into the Grand Canyon in a heartbeat.
NEVADA, 35-29.
*MISSISSIPPI STATE over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 10
Although some might argue, MSU has more SEC-caliber athletes than MTSU – but the margin
isn’t as large as it should be. Sylvester Croom’s offense is built to average 4-5 yards per
carry, so when they hit for 2-3, you get 3rd and 6 ten times per game. Maybe they convert
two against SEC teams – three or four against the Blue Raiders. Ugly win by bigger, stronger
players. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 23-13.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC over *LOUISIANA-MONROE by 4
FAU’s defense is among the nation’s bottom-dwellers in tackles for losses. The offense has
been bad in the red zone. Key words, “has been.” Things can change. Monrovian QB Kinsmon
Lancaster likes to think he can keep opponents flustered, but his offense didn’t start converting
third downs until North Texas’s alleged defense showed up on their doorstep last
Saturday. FAU has big receivers, Monrovian DBs are not making the plays they once made,
and it only takes one or two big plays from Rusty “Medium Play Seeking a Return to Big Play”
Smith to put ULM into futile chase mode. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 27-23.
TROY over *NORTH TEXAS by 21
Is the anti-North Texas value gone? They finally covered, by 6 points, last Saturday while Troy
could only straddle the number, as expected, with their new starting QB against offense-less
Florida International. Quarterback runs have disappeared from Troy’s offense with Hampton
sidelined for Brown. For North Texas in Monrovia last Saturday, the Vizza Man put the piggie
in the air 62 times without a pick. Mama mia! He’s due. TROY, 41-20.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*TULSA over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 24
Todd Graham, head coach of Tulsa, to Gorgeous George O’Leary of the visitor: ‘Say, you guys
don’t look like the same team that thrashed us in the C-USA Championship Game on your
home field last season, when you ran the nation’s leading rusher Kevin Smith for 284 yards
and our defense was posing for Matador crackers. We’d like to kill you for revenge anyway,
since you still can’t throw the ball. Our people will be very dismayed if we don’t allow the
disparity between our respective offenses’ total yardage per game, 615 vs. 247, to play out
on the scoreboard. TULSA, 44-20.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28
BUFFALO over *OHIO by 1
Ohio’s offense is a busted play waiting to happen. Buffalo’s defense can make it happen.
Ohio’s defense is 11 bowling pins waiting to be plowed through by a solid rushing attack.
Buffalo’s offense can make it happen. BUFFALO, 24-23.
HOUSTON over *MARSHALL by 10
Playing at the nation’s quickest tempo helps Houston really wear down opposing defenses in
the second half. They have out-scored SMU by 17, UAB by 42, ECU by 6, Colorado State by
15, Air Force by 7 in the second half. The sharpest bettors in America – halftime bettors –
are loving this team. Full game bettors hate them because they aren’t more efficient early.
Marshall is the Blundering Herd who managed to log only 58 offensive plays at defense-less
UAB. HOUSTON, 37-27.
RED SHEET ONLINE
OCT 25, 2008, VOL 40, NO 9 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
GEORGIA TECH 40 - Virginia 13 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at GeorgiaTech minus 13, and is now minus
11½. Cavs have certainly turned things around over the past 3 wks, with combined 82-33 pt
edge, as well as plus 72½ pts ATS. But those were all played in Charlottesville. Now take
to the road, vs a Jacket team which has a phenomenal 1,309-513 RY edge in its lined
games, while covering 5-of-5. Not only that, but Virginia has a 76-13 pt deficit away from
home. So check Tech's 5th rated defense, to complement that overland game. The series
host is on a superb 9-1 ATS run, & the Jackets well remember LY's tough defeat.
RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89
Minnesota 30 - PURDUE 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 1, and is now pick-em. As we noted
on Pointwise, the Gopher turnaround has been incredible, as they stand at 6-1 so far, in
stark contrast to the 1-11 log that they posted a year ago. Are +97 pts ATS in their last 8
games, covering their last outing by 19 pts, as they held Illinois' then 19th-ranked rushing
offense to just 88 yds. Have had an extra week to prepare for this, & Boilers are slipping by
the week. On a 4-game slide, while averaging just 14 ppg. Purdue owns the 104th rated
running game, & QB Painter not to be trusted (3 INTs LW). "Mo" all Gophers.
RATING: MINNESOTA 89
Central Michigan 41 - TOLEDO 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at CentralMichigan minus 3½, and is still minus
3½. This Chip squad has been magnificent over the past 2½ seasons, especially in MAC
play, where they are 123½ pts ahead of the spread in their last 15 conference games. A
week ago, they had to go it without do-everything QB LeFevour (ankle) but Brunner simply
stepped in and threw for 346 yds in Central's 38-28 upset of a Western Michigan squad
which had won 6 straight. The Rockets pulled that upset of Michigan, & took Fresno into
OT, but check a 69-7 pt deficit in their last 2 MAC games. Chips again.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88
FLORIDA 47 - Kentucky 13 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Florida minus 23, and is now minus 24. Dedicated
Gators took it on the chin in that embarrassing upset, hosting OleMiss, but have quickly
shown that they are far from down, having climbed to the #4 spot in the nation, with a
combined scoring edge of 89-28 in their 2 outings since. And that included their 51-21
home blasting of then 3rd-ranked LSU, in which they held a 265-80 RY edge. Full focus
here, as the 'Cats have surprised with their 5-2 start, while covering their first 2 RGs by 40½
pts. UK ranks only 96th, offensively, so no way to stay with this scoreboard lighter.
RATING: FLORIDA 88
Oklahoma 51 - KANSAS STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 19, and is still minus 19.
Catching the awesome Sooners off their games with Texas & Kansas would seem a juicy
proposition for Wildcat backers, especially with such a high home dog spot. However, the
Sooners are at 47 ppg, & in off rolling up 674 yds & 45 pts vs Kansas, with Bradford
throwing for a school-record 468 yds. So hardly a letdown off OU's loss to top-ranked
Texas. The 'Cats are no pushover, averaging 38 ppg in their last 10 hosting roles, but their
Achilles heel is their 112th-ranked defense, and a bit down off LW's wrenching loss.
RATING: OKLAHOMA 88
PHILADELPHIA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 7½, and is now minus 8½.
The Eagles sure have had their baptism of fire, with 4 consecutive wars, before finally a
breather of sorts, in their 40-26 win over the Niners. Their bye week was especially important,
as it should enable Westbrook's return. The Falcons are improved, with their 4 wins
matching their total victories of a year ago, but they've been stung for the exact same 24 pts
in each of their 3 road games to date. And altho Ryan has proven a quick study, taking on
this 6th ranked Eagle "D", in this inhospitable spot is a true reality check.
RATING: PHILADELPHIA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Alabama, BYU, BallSt, UCLA, Tulsa - NFL: Ravens, Redskins, & Titans
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Nevada (Pick to -3); MiddleTennessee (+13½ to +11½);
Tulsa (-21 to -23); NoCaroSt (+12 to +10½); Cincinnati (+2½ to +1); Florida (-23 to -24½); Utah St (+18½ to
+17); Virginia (+13 to +11½); Nebraska (-9½ to -11) - NFL: NYJets (-10½ to -12½); Philadelphia (-7½ to -
8½); Tennessee (-3 to -4) - TIME CHANGES: Alabama/Tennessee: now 7:45; Texas/OklahomaSt: now
3:30; Nebraska/Baylor: now 12:30 - KEY INJURIES: ArizonaSt QB Carpenter (ankle) probable; Arkansas
RB Smith (concussion) ??; Buffalo RB Starks (toe) ??: CentMichigan QB LeFevour (ankle) probable; Cincy
QB Pike (arm) probable; Indiana QB Lewis (ankle) ??; Kentucky RB Locke (knee) out; Memphis QB Hall
(thumb) out; Memphis QB Hudgens (ankle) out; Miami-Ohio RB Merriweather (ankle) ??; MichiganSt QB
Hoyer (hand) probable; Oklahoma WR Johnson (elbow) doubtful; Temple QB DeMichele (shoulder) ??;
TexasA&M RB Goodson (knee) ??; Toledo QB Opelt (leg) probable; Tulane RB Anderson (sternum) probable;
WVa QB White (head) probable; Wisc RB Hill (foot) ?? - NFL: Dallas QB Romo (finger) ??; Denver QB
Cutler (finger) probable; KC RB Johnson (disciplinary) ??; Saints RB Bush (knee) out; Giant WR Burress
(finger) probable; Philly RB Westbrook (ribs) probable; Pitt RB Parker (knee) ??; Seattle QB Hasselbeck
(back) doubtful; Rams RB Jackson (thigh) probable; 'Skins QB Campbell (groin) probable...
OCT 25, 2008, VOL 40, NO 9 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
GEORGIA TECH 40 - Virginia 13 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at GeorgiaTech minus 13, and is now minus
11½. Cavs have certainly turned things around over the past 3 wks, with combined 82-33 pt
edge, as well as plus 72½ pts ATS. But those were all played in Charlottesville. Now take
to the road, vs a Jacket team which has a phenomenal 1,309-513 RY edge in its lined
games, while covering 5-of-5. Not only that, but Virginia has a 76-13 pt deficit away from
home. So check Tech's 5th rated defense, to complement that overland game. The series
host is on a superb 9-1 ATS run, & the Jackets well remember LY's tough defeat.
RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89
Minnesota 30 - PURDUE 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Purdue minus 1, and is now pick-em. As we noted
on Pointwise, the Gopher turnaround has been incredible, as they stand at 6-1 so far, in
stark contrast to the 1-11 log that they posted a year ago. Are +97 pts ATS in their last 8
games, covering their last outing by 19 pts, as they held Illinois' then 19th-ranked rushing
offense to just 88 yds. Have had an extra week to prepare for this, & Boilers are slipping by
the week. On a 4-game slide, while averaging just 14 ppg. Purdue owns the 104th rated
running game, & QB Painter not to be trusted (3 INTs LW). "Mo" all Gophers.
RATING: MINNESOTA 89
Central Michigan 41 - TOLEDO 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at CentralMichigan minus 3½, and is still minus
3½. This Chip squad has been magnificent over the past 2½ seasons, especially in MAC
play, where they are 123½ pts ahead of the spread in their last 15 conference games. A
week ago, they had to go it without do-everything QB LeFevour (ankle) but Brunner simply
stepped in and threw for 346 yds in Central's 38-28 upset of a Western Michigan squad
which had won 6 straight. The Rockets pulled that upset of Michigan, & took Fresno into
OT, but check a 69-7 pt deficit in their last 2 MAC games. Chips again.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88
FLORIDA 47 - Kentucky 13 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Florida minus 23, and is now minus 24. Dedicated
Gators took it on the chin in that embarrassing upset, hosting OleMiss, but have quickly
shown that they are far from down, having climbed to the #4 spot in the nation, with a
combined scoring edge of 89-28 in their 2 outings since. And that included their 51-21
home blasting of then 3rd-ranked LSU, in which they held a 265-80 RY edge. Full focus
here, as the 'Cats have surprised with their 5-2 start, while covering their first 2 RGs by 40½
pts. UK ranks only 96th, offensively, so no way to stay with this scoreboard lighter.
RATING: FLORIDA 88
Oklahoma 51 - KANSAS STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 19, and is still minus 19.
Catching the awesome Sooners off their games with Texas & Kansas would seem a juicy
proposition for Wildcat backers, especially with such a high home dog spot. However, the
Sooners are at 47 ppg, & in off rolling up 674 yds & 45 pts vs Kansas, with Bradford
throwing for a school-record 468 yds. So hardly a letdown off OU's loss to top-ranked
Texas. The 'Cats are no pushover, averaging 38 ppg in their last 10 hosting roles, but their
Achilles heel is their 112th-ranked defense, and a bit down off LW's wrenching loss.
RATING: OKLAHOMA 88
PHILADELPHIA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 7½, and is now minus 8½.
The Eagles sure have had their baptism of fire, with 4 consecutive wars, before finally a
breather of sorts, in their 40-26 win over the Niners. Their bye week was especially important,
as it should enable Westbrook's return. The Falcons are improved, with their 4 wins
matching their total victories of a year ago, but they've been stung for the exact same 24 pts
in each of their 3 road games to date. And altho Ryan has proven a quick study, taking on
this 6th ranked Eagle "D", in this inhospitable spot is a true reality check.
RATING: PHILADELPHIA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Alabama, BYU, BallSt, UCLA, Tulsa - NFL: Ravens, Redskins, & Titans
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Nevada (Pick to -3); MiddleTennessee (+13½ to +11½);
Tulsa (-21 to -23); NoCaroSt (+12 to +10½); Cincinnati (+2½ to +1); Florida (-23 to -24½); Utah St (+18½ to
+17); Virginia (+13 to +11½); Nebraska (-9½ to -11) - NFL: NYJets (-10½ to -12½); Philadelphia (-7½ to -
8½); Tennessee (-3 to -4) - TIME CHANGES: Alabama/Tennessee: now 7:45; Texas/OklahomaSt: now
3:30; Nebraska/Baylor: now 12:30 - KEY INJURIES: ArizonaSt QB Carpenter (ankle) probable; Arkansas
RB Smith (concussion) ??; Buffalo RB Starks (toe) ??: CentMichigan QB LeFevour (ankle) probable; Cincy
QB Pike (arm) probable; Indiana QB Lewis (ankle) ??; Kentucky RB Locke (knee) out; Memphis QB Hall
(thumb) out; Memphis QB Hudgens (ankle) out; Miami-Ohio RB Merriweather (ankle) ??; MichiganSt QB
Hoyer (hand) probable; Oklahoma WR Johnson (elbow) doubtful; Temple QB DeMichele (shoulder) ??;
TexasA&M RB Goodson (knee) ??; Toledo QB Opelt (leg) probable; Tulane RB Anderson (sternum) probable;
WVa QB White (head) probable; Wisc RB Hill (foot) ?? - NFL: Dallas QB Romo (finger) ??; Denver QB
Cutler (finger) probable; KC RB Johnson (disciplinary) ??; Saints RB Bush (knee) out; Giant WR Burress
(finger) probable; Philly RB Westbrook (ribs) probable; Pitt RB Parker (knee) ??; Seattle QB Hasselbeck
(back) doubtful; Rams RB Jackson (thigh) probable; 'Skins QB Campbell (groin) probable...
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the red sheet 89* (10-5-1)...
Winning points best bet (11-5)...alabama...wake forest
