Power Sweep:
4* Miami 37-10
3* West Va. 45-10
3* N.D. 24-20
2* Bowling Green 30-20
2* Florida 30-17
2* Western Michigan 27-21
Underdog Northwestern +3 27-23
4* Houston 28-13
3* Seattle 31-20
2* St. Louis + 27-31
2* Arizona + 28-27
3* Jets over 45
3* Colts U 39
3* Panthers U36
2* Packers over 47
2* Cowboys over 48<!-- / message -->
4* Miami 37-10
3* West Va. 45-10
3* N.D. 24-20
2* Bowling Green 30-20
2* Florida 30-17
2* Western Michigan 27-21
Underdog Northwestern +3 27-23
4* Houston 28-13
3* Seattle 31-20
2* St. Louis + 27-31
2* Arizona + 28-27
3* Jets over 45
3* Colts U 39
3* Panthers U36
2* Packers over 47
2* Cowboys over 48<!-- / message -->
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-125.
Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT
UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's
Underdog Play of the Week:
The Spartans are 9-24 SU on the B10 road. In their last matchup in Evanston, MSU rallied from a
38-3 3Q deficit for the NCAA’s largest-ever comeback. The road tm has won 3 in a row SU and is
7-0 ATS! LY we used NW (+16) as the Big Dog play and they pulled the upset in OT 48-41 with QB
Bacher throwing for 520 yds (NW 611-481 yd edge). NW is fresh off a bye and is off to its 1st 5-0 start
S/’62, the same yr the 1st Walmart store opened in Bentonville, AR. A win here would clinch bowl
elig earlier than at any time in the program’s history (10/19/96). QB Bacher (208 ypg, 53%, 7-5 ratio)
& RB Sutton (464, 5.3) needed the wk off after being banged up. The Cats start can be credited to
their D which leads the conf with 17 sks (just 18 in ‘07) and allows 112 rush yds (3.4). MSU survived
a 4Q comeback by Iowa by stopping RB Greene on 4th & 1 at the MSU 21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks
became the 1st team to contain Ringer (#2 NCAA with 988, 4.7) who was held to 91 yds (3.6). By
game’s end MSU was playing without its entire starting secondary. The fresh Cats take advantage of
a tired Spartans team off a physical gm. FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 27 Michigan St 23
KEY SELECTIONS
4* MIAMI, FL over Ucf - 1st meeting and UCF is 0-4 visiting in-state schools losing by 36 ppg S/‘96.
Normally UM would not be up for a lower rung in-state school but UCF is the defending CUSA champ
and Miami is 2-3 and wants to prove there’s still a huge divide between the programs to in-state recruits.
They are off a misleading loss to rival Fla St with an ACC game on deck. LW for UCF QB Greco took over
for true Fr Calabrese in the 2H and engineered 3 scoring drives to defeat SMU 31-17. On the season
he is avg 107 ypg (53%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Weaver, who had his 1st 100 yd rush gm LW, has 328 yds
(3.7) on the season. UM is coming off a disappointing conf loss in a game they trailed 31-10 3Q and
got to within 34-32 w/8:00 left in a game in which true Fr Benjamin (PS#54) had 274 all-purp yds. On
the ssn QB Marve is avg 135 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio. RB Cooper, who has taken over for the inj’d
James and has 322 rush yds (5.4). Both of Miami’s wins are vs non-conf foes TY and the Canes need
a feel-good win to prove their still relevant to in-state players after losing to UF and FSU.
FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 37 Ucf 10
3*WEST VIRGINIA over Syracuse - This is played for the Schwartzwalder Trophy. LY WV won their
6th (5-1 ATS) in a row SU and their 55 pts were the most Syr ever all’d at home. QB White sat out the
2H with inj. The fav is 15-1 ATS! The only non-cover was last time here in ‘06 when WV won 41-17
(-25’) and WV had a 562-227 yd edge. Syr is 4-2 ATS vs ranked tms on the road and pulled a stunner
LY upsetting #18 Louisville (+37). Syr is off a bye after their 34-24 loss to Pitt, a gm they led 24-16 in
the 4Q. The Orange are all’g 157 ypg rush (4.7) and now face a potent rush attack avg 206 ypg (5.1).
LW WV held on to defeat Rutgers 24-17. QB White left in the 3Q (head, CS). If WV has to go without
White they are in capable hands with backup Jarrett “Big” Brown and RB Devine (454 yds, 5.7). WV
has huge edges on off (#33-98) and def (#33-116) and the home edge and will roll into the bye at 4-2
before facing Auburn. FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 45 Syracuse 10
3* Notre Dame over NORTH CAROLINA - While ND is 16-1 SU in the series, their last trip here was
in 1975 and in their only recent meeting a 3-9 NCar team covered (+24’) 26-45 in South Bend in 2006 vs
Sugar Bowl bound ND (ND ended gm on NC’s 20). This matches our #1 vs #2 Most Improved tms. NC (4-1)
is off to its best start S/’97. QB Sexton, starting for the inj’d Yates (ankle), is avg 180 ypg (57%) with a 3-1
ratio. WR Nicks has 24 rec (17.2) and Tate is avg 195 all-purp ypg. NC’s D is #1 in NCAA with 12 int. QB
Clausen, who threw for 347 yds LW vs Stanford giving us a 3H LPS Winner, is avg 250 ypg (61%) with a
12-6 ratio, however, the 6 int were in the 1st 3 gms and he has 0 since. ND’s WR Tate has 23 rec (17.3)
and Floyd has 21 (15.9). ND has struggled running the ball other than vs Purdue and prior to LW only had
1 sk (5 sks vs Stanford). These tms matchup pretty evenly on both sides of the ball (ND off #43-45, NC
def #43-51). Rare line value with ND as both are off misleading finals (see News & Notes) and the Irish
prove why they are our Most Improved. FORECAST: Notre Dame 24 NORTH CAROLINA 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Bowling Green over AKRON - LY BG had a ssn high 517 yds off, incl 295 in the 1H vs Akron.
Akron RB Kennedy had a career high 178 yds (7.4) & 2 TD vs BG in ‘06. Akron is 0-11 SU the week
after playing rival Kent. BG is 1-6 as an AF and Akron is 5-1 as a HD. BG is coming off a shocking loss
as they allowed EM to score a TD with :36 left losing 24-21 as a 20’ pt HF. The Falcons were outgained
410-391 and outFD’d 23-18. Akron is coming off a shocking win thanks to a Kent St flubbed punt that
set them up for a TD with less than 5:00 left. Akron won 30-27 as a 3’ AF as Kent St missed a short
FG in the 2nd OT. The Zips were outFD’d 25-15 and outgained 413-301. This will be the Zips final HC
in the Rubber Bowl. BG has the off (#68-92) and D (#78-96) edges. BG QB Sheehan is avg 242 ypg
(66%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Bullock leads the tm with 237 yds (4.2). Akron QB Jacquemain is avg 243
ypg (59%) with a 10-9 ratio. RB Kennedy leads the Zips with 291 yds (4.1). Akron’s weakness is run
D where they are all’g 222 ypg (4.6) so it’s time for the Falcons to work out their offensive kinks.
FORECAST: Bowling Green 30 AKRON 20
2* FLORIDA over Lsu - LY the Gators led 17-7 at HT and 24-14 early 4Q but lost 28-24 (+7) in Death
Valley as LSU went 5/5 on 4th down tries. LSU is 3-1 SU in this series but the 3 wins are by 11 pts comb.
The HT is 4-12 ATS and UF is 7-2 ATS in this series. LSU is 3-10 ATS vs SEC East tms, but UF has
struggled vs West tms also (4-8-1 ATS) incl an outright upset loss to Ole Miss a few wks ago. The Gators
are 15-5 SU & 13-6 ATS the week prior to a bye. Tebow has avg just 205 ypg pass (62%) with an 8-1 ratio
and only 157 rush (2.6) a far cry from his ‘07 Heisman ssn. LSU LB Darry Beckwith is exp to return (out
L/2). UF is banged up on the OL with their top 2 LG’s missing the last gm (CS). Meyer has never lost 2 in
a row SU at home. UF has slight edges on off (#8-21), def (#4-14) and ST’s (#1-8). LSU QB Lee makes
his 1st road start in The Swamp and has avg 161 ypg (58%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Scott has 535 rush (7.5)
and leads the SEC in rush ypg (134). UF is 7-2 as a HF & LSU hasn’t been an AD since their 23-10 loss
(+1) to UF in the Swamp in ‘06. These 2 teams have captured the L/2 BCS Championships, but UF has
the all-important home edge and the superior QB in this one. FORECAST: FLORIDA 30 Lsu 17
2* W Michigan over BUFFALO - Last met in ‘05 as WM QB Hiller made his debut (WM -10’, 31-
21). WM is 3-0 SU vs Buff (all by 10+ pts). HC Cubit is 2-5-1 as an AF and Gill is 3-1 as a MAC HD.
Buff is fresh off a bye (but is 0-7 off bye) while WM is playing a 7th str wk and has rival CM on deck
(0-4 ATS gm prior to CM). We won a 3H Small Coll Play on WM (-7) as they beat Ohio 41-20, with a
503-356 yd edge. UB just missed knocking off CM as the gm winning FG (lost 27-25, +6’) went off the
upright as time expired. WM has the off (#46-65) and D (#66-76) edges but the Bulls have played the
tougher schedule (#11-117). Both tms beat Temple TY (UB 30-28, -6, TU QB DiMichele did play, WM
7-3, -4, DiMichele DNP). WM is led by QB Hiller, who avg 284 ypg (69%) with a 19-4 ratio. RB West
leads with 574 (5.6). UB is led by QB Willy who avg 260 ypg (64%) with a 12-3 ratio and RB Starks
has 390 (4.8) despite missing time (inj). WM’s dominance on both sides of the ball have not shown up
on the scoreboard yet but expect different results here. FORECAST: W Michigan 27 BUFFALO 21
OTHER GAMES
Tuesday, October 7th Troy at FLORIDA ATLANTIC - FAU snapped a 4 gm losing streak to Troy LY
with their 38-32 road win (+16) stealing the SBC Title in Troy’s FHG. FAU is 10-4 ATS in conf play but is
off a devastating last second loss to Mid Tenn. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road gm (in 4 wks) and they were
outgained 612-416 LW vs Okla St but beat that same Blue Raiders squad 31-17 in the opener.
Thursday, October 9th Clemson at WAKE FOREST - LY CU’s Harper threw for 3 TD & ran for a 4th
in a 44-10 win (scored on 1st 4 poss). Prior to ‘07 WF HC Grobe was 4-0-2 ATS vs Clemson with his
biggest SU loss by 10 and two outright upsets. Clem’s L/3 trips here have been a comeback win and
SU losses by 28 and 4. CU was the preseason favorite to win the ACC but are 1-1 in conf play so they
need this win here to stay in the race while WF got their conf win at FSU, a team CU will also face on
the road. This could be the ACC Atlantic Title game
Uab at HOUSTON - These two have avg 60 ppg in their previous matchups. LY UH jumped out to a
35-10 HT lead in ‘07 outgaining an undermanned UAB squad 540-224 in a 49-10 win (-13’) as a 4H Key
Selection winner. UAB journeys to Houston after dropping a heartbreaker vs Memphis last Thur and is
now playing for a 7th str wk riding a 6-11-1 ATS record vs the CUSA. After a big win at #23 EC a few wks
back, UH returns from a bye where they have struggled as a DD HF going just 4-13 ATS (0-4 LY).
Friday, October 10th Louisville at MEMPHIS - This is an old CUSA rivalry with UL 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS
(last met in ‘04, UL -13’ won on the road, 56-49). The dog is 11-1 ATS. UL HC Kragthorpe (at Tulsa) is
2-0 ATS vs Mem HC West. This is a conf sandwich game for Memphis with EC on deck while UL returns
home vs Mid Tenn. Louisville is off a bye while Memphis is off a Thurs night win over rival UAB.
Saturday Games
East Carolina 27 VIRGINIA 17 - In their only recent meeting in ‘06, EC was -6’ at
home and won 31-21. The dog is 15-5 ATS when EC is on the road. EC is off a bye but has a home conf
game on deck. The Cavs were outscored 128-20 in their previous 3 BCS gms but finally clicked LW and
shutout MD 31-0. QB Vercia, who took over for Lalich (kicked off tm), is avg 145 ypg (62%) with a 2-5
ratio. WR Ogletree has 27 rec (11.8). The Pirates have the edge on off (#77-96) but they matchup almost
evenly on D (UVA #60-65). QB Pinkney avg 203 ypg (68%) with a 6-3 ratio. WR Harris has 33 rec (10.5).
EC is 9-3 off a SU loss under Holtz but now faces the Cavs off an upset win by 31 pts (2 TD dog).
Iowa 27 INDIANA 20 - LY in Iowa City, Hawks QB Christensen threw for 308 yd but Indy had 9 sks
and got their 2nd str upset of Iowa with their biggest margin (38-20) S/’45. Hoosier QB Lewis has avg’d
305 ttl ypg while accounting for 7 TD’s in 2 career winning sts vs Iowa. Ferentz is 3-5 SU vs Indy and
is 0-7 as an AF with 5 OUTRIGHT losses. Hawks have lost 3 str by a comb ttl of 9 pts incl LW’s 16-13
defeat at MSU in which RB Greene (NCAA’s #6 rusher w/822, 6.4) was SOD on 4th & 1 at the MSU
21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks rallied from a 16-3 deficit created in part by QB Stanzi’s 3 1H TO’s (5 of
tm’s 8 in L/2 gms) but couldn’t finish for their 8th str loss by 3 or less. Indy also lost their 3rd in a row in
an unexpected 16-7 D struggle vs Minny in which they were outFD’d 22-10. Both QB’s played but the
tm’s lone TD came on a 77 yd pass from Chappell to Thigpen (3 TD’s of 75+ in L/2). Iowa has all of the
edges especially on D (#19-69) and this is a must-win for both tms’ post season hopes.
ILLINOIS 34 Minnesota 20 - UM HC Brewster is an IL alum who campaigned to get the Illini job before
Zook. The Gophers are 6-2 SU (series) but lost LY 44-17 in Brewster’s 1st test vs Zook as the Illini ran
for a ssn high 448 yd. IL is 7-2 SU at home (series) but lost the last time here in ‘03, 36-10 (+15’). The
Illini rallied from a 14-3 deficit and scored the most pts in their history over Mich in a 45-20 win in the
Big House. B10 ttl offense leader QB Williams (243 ypg, 57%, 11-6 ratio, 404 rush yds) had the most
yds in Michigan Stadium history (431). The D settled down and tied their ssn high with 4 sks and all’d
the Wolves just 69 rush yds (2.0). After being 1-11 in ‘07, UM is 1 win away from bowl eligibility after
their 16-7 win over Indy in which they held the potent Hoosiers to just 10 FD, 293 yds and 1 offensive
TD. QB Weber (238 ypg, 68%, 8-2 ratio) and WR Decker (#3 NCAA with 50 rec, 13.9) are the league’s
most prolific pitch & catch combo. UM is #2 in the NCAA in TO margin at +10. The Gophers will have
to wait at least one more wk to start making post season plans.
OKLAHOMA 34 Texas 27 - Red River Rivalry (103rd) and UT has covered 3 str (2-1 SU) but has been
outgained L/2Y benefitting from +7 TO (OU 333-232 yd edge in ‘06). LY was the 1st RRR gm S/’97 that
was not decided by DD but surprisingly the dog is 13-7 ATS. #1 OU (4-0 ATS) cont’d its dominance
rolling BU LW 49-17 and has outgained foes by 284 ypg. QB Bradford avg 333 ypg (73%) with an 18-3
ratio. #5 Texas took care of CU on the road LW 38-14 is 5-0 ATS avg 47 ppg TY. QB McCoy avg 256
ypg (79%) with a 16-3 ratio. OU is on a 25-4 SU & 19-8-1 ATS run but struggled vs TCU (comparable
def to UT) rushing for just 25 yds on 36 carries and the Frogs penetrated OU terr 8 times and came
away with NO pts (2 punt, 3 SOD & 3 TO)! Both tms rank in the top 10 in off/def and the last time they
both came in undefeated was in ‘04 (OU won 12-0, last cover). This will be the 4th time that Stoops and
Brown bring Top 5 ranked squads into Dallas and the Sooners are 3-0 SU & ATS.
ARMY 23 E Michigan 22 - Last met in ‘92, a 57-17 Army win. Both tms are off outright wins as DD AD’s.
EM scored with :36 left beating BG 24-21 as a 20’ pt dog. Army’s option has finally started to click as they
avg 6.6 ypc and seemingly dominated Tulane 44-13 as a 19’ pt dog. However Army was outFD’d 25-13 and
outgained 486-334 D scored 2 TD incl an 81 yd FR as they were +4 TO. Army is avg 222 ypg (4.1) rush
while EM is all’g 184 ypg rush (4.9 ypc). EM is in a MAC sandwich, on 3rd AG in 4 wks and is just 3-10
ATS in non-conf AG’s. Army is 9-5 SU on HC and is trying to break a 5 gm home losing streak after ending
the nation’s longest losing streak (10 gm) LW. EM is just 1-4 ATS TY while Army has covered 2 str. Army,
after being led in rushing by QB Bowden the L/2W, was led by FB Mooney with 187 (9.8) and he now leads
with 416 (5.0). EM QB Schmitt avg 133 ypg (61%) with a 2-2 ratio. Take the points.
BAYLOR 31 Iowa St 24 - ISU is 3-14 SU & 5-12 ATS vs the B12 South. Cyclones have dropped 9 str
B12 AG’s w/the avg loss by 20 ppg. In their L/gm in ‘05, BU won its 1st ever B12 AG beating ISU 23-13
(0-37 coming in). BU is 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS after facing OU but 7-3 as a HF. The Bears ran into #1 OU
LW and as usual lost 49-17. QB Griffin avg 166 ypg (56%) with a 7-0 ratio and leads with 436 rush yd
(5.7) accounting for 64% of the BU off. ISU nearly turned in the upset over KU but lost 35-33 LW. Kan
needed to rally from a 20 pt deficit to escape with the win. QB Arnaud seems to have the #1 spot avg
182 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio. Both tms have struggled on the road (ISU 10-45 SU) but have won at
each others stadium in ‘04 & ‘05 (BU 2-0 ATS). Both tms are 2-3 and need a win to keep a bowl berth
alive, but BU has the off edge (#48-75) and seems to be ahead in Briles schemes at this point, compared
to what Chizik has done with the Cyclones.
South Carolina 20 KENTUCKY 13 - SC DE Norwood tied an NCAA record with 2 FR TD’s in LY’s
38-21 (-4) SC win in a Thurs PPH Nite win in which #11 SC had the ball at the UK2 at the end. It was
SC’s first win over a Top 10 tm (UK #8) S/’88. SC has won 8 in a row SU and Spurrier is 15-0 vs UK.
The visitor is 11-5 ATS while UK is 8-3 as a HD. UK is off a close loss to #2 Bama in which a fmbl by
QB Hartline (ret’d by Bama for a TD) was the difference. Hartline has avg 175 ypg (56%) with a 5-2
ratio. SC seems to be getting back on track with 3 str wins to put themselves back in bowl contention.
Spurrier stuck with QB Smelley (195 ypg, 63%, 9-7 ratio) LW and he threw for a career high 327 yds &
3 TD in their win over Miss. This is a battle of Top 20 D’s with SC having a slight edge (#11-18). UK’s D
all’d 282 rush yd (5.8) to the Tide LW, so SC RB Davis (327, 4.5) could be in for a big day. The loser of
this one risks being shutout of the bowls.
MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Vanderbilt 10 - VU has dropped 5 str in Starkville by an avg of 27 ppg, but did win
the last meeting 31-13 (-13) in ‘04 in Nashville. The fav has covered 4 in a row. VU has lost SU the L/2
times they have been an SEC AF (‘06, -1’ at Miss 10-17 and ‘04, -3 at KY 13-14). MSU is 3-6 as a HD
& 5-9 ATS off a bye. VU is in a letdown sit coming off their historic upset of #13 Aub LW with GameDay
broadcasting from their campus and VU is off to its best start S/’43. QB Nickson (59 pass ypg, 55%,
3-1 ratio, 310 rush, 5.1) aggravated a shld’r inj LW (CS) and bkup Adams threw for 153 yds & 2 TD. VU
leads the NCAA in TO margin and held Aub to 4 yd rush in the 2H LW. Despite their 5-0 start, VU is
being outgained by 54 ypg on the yr. MSU RB Dixon (groin inj, 320, 4.5) should be healthier after the
bye. QB Lee made his 1st start in the tm’s respectable loss to LSU and has avg 117 ypg (66%) with a
1-0 ratio while Carroll has avg 132 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio. VU has slight edges on off (#90-99) & D
(#34-39), but a large edge on ST’s (#34-80). VU could clinch its first bowl S/’82 with a win here.
Utah 35 WYOMING 7 - LY WY HC Glenn guaranteed a win and when UT onside kicked while up by 43,
he flipped off Whittingham. UT had a 506-122 yd edge and is 7-2 SU and 10-5 ATS (series). The HT
has covered SEVEN str! WY is 6-3 (0-1 TY) as a HD. LW UT rallied for 11 pts in 1:29 for a 31-28 win
over Oreg St despite being outFD’d 20-18 and outgained 405-337. QB Johnson avg 222 ypg (67%)
with a 10-6 ratio. RB Asiata has 373 yd (5.3) while Mack has 363 (4.7) and three WR’s have more than
20 rec’s. During the wk, WY gave the starting job to Sween with “leeway” in the TO dept. Sween tossed
an int that was ret’d for a TD :15 in & on the yr WY has a -14 TO margin (T-last NCAA) and is 0-5 ATS.
Sween has thrown for 155 yd (54%) with an 0-2 ratio in L/2. RB Moore leads w/582 rush yd (5.3) & two
WR’s tie for the lead with 13 rec (in SIX GMS!). UT is playing to impress poll voters while WY is playing
for their HC’s job as the rest of us wonder who his successor.
TEXAS A&M 34 Kansas St 30 - Last meeting, in ‘05, A&M led 23-8 after 3Q’s, before KSU’s 4Q comeback
fell short by 2. KSU is 3-13 SU (4-9 ATS) on the B12 road being outscored by 11 ppg. A&M is 9-3 SU and
8-4 ATS in their B12 home opener and the HT is 4-1 ATS. A&M lost 56-28 to OkSt but outgained them
by 1 yd and fell to 1-4 ATS. QB’s McGee & Johnson are both not 100% but comb for 239 ypg (59%) with
a 10-5 ratio. KSU’s struggles cont’d LW vs TT as they have given up 37+ pts in 3 str and a rush D that
has been non-existent (all’g 258 ypg, 5.7). QB Freeman is avg 255 ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio. K-St is
on a 2-9 SU & 1-7 ATS run but does have a huge ST edge (#2-100) along with the better off (#27-72) &
D (#87-94). We’re well aware that A&M is 1-2 SU TY at home dropping 5 of the L/6 ATS (0-3 ATS TY) but
LW’s offensive output shows the progress the new off is making.
C MICHIGAN 30 Temple 20 - Only met in ‘06 with CM having a 499-309 yd edge on the road (-20) 42-26.
CM is 11-2 ATS at home and TU is on their 5th RG in 7 wks while CM is off a bye. TU beat Miami 28-10
as a 7 pt AD, as the D forced 4 TO incl 1 that set up a 6 yd TD drive. TU was outFD’d 20-11 and outgained
303-294. QB Stewart, in his 2nd start, improved to 178 yds (48%) with a 3-1 ratio. CM has a huge off edge
(#37-115) but TU does have the D edge (#53-109). Both have played Buff TY. CM held on for a 27-25 SU
win as a 6’ pt HF with 21-18 FD and 360-336 yd edges. TU lost 30-28 as a 6’ pt AD but was outFD’d 24-19
and outgained 449-389. CM is led by QB LeFevour who avg 254 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio and is the top
rusher (318, 4.4). Despite being 3-2 SU, CM is 1-3 ATS being outscored 31-26 and outgained 406-386
with their 2 IA wins by a comb 5 pts.
OHIO ST 38 Purdue 10 - LY OSU traveled to face a 5-0 Purdue tm who was thinking upset but the Bucks
forced a school record 12 punts and finished with a 381-184 yd edge. OSU led 23-0 before PU scored a
TD w/:10 left. Tiller had won 3 in a row ATS vs Tressel prior. OSU is 26-17 as a HF but 0-3 TY. OSU broke
Wisky’s 16 gm home win streak thanks to an 80 yd TD drive directed by Pryor who scored on an 11 yd
run w/1:08 left. As the starter (L/3) Pryor has accounted for 8 of OSU’s 10 TD’s. RB Beanie Wells (385,
7.9) has 100 yds in every gm he’s played TY despite not being 100%. OSU is #21 in pass eff D all’g 155
ypg (58%) with a 7-9 ratio. PU is off a 20-6 home loss to Penn St in which QB Painter was benched in the
4Q after failing to get the Boilers into the EZ for the 3rd consec time vs the Lions. Painter has struggled
(#83 NCAA pass eff) avg 245 ypg (58%) with a 5-5 ratio but Tiller said he will start vs OSU despite backup
Eilliot’s 82 yd TD drive LW. Boilers’ short handed D allows 196 rush ypg (5.0) to rank #104 in the NCAA.
With huge edges all around, OSU bullies the Boilers.
Tcu 35 COLORADO ST 10 - HC Patterson is 4-0 SU & ATS vs CSU and TCU won here 45-14 (-9’) in ‘06. LW
it looked like SDSt was going to make a gm of it (held TCU to 2 early FG’s), but TCU ended with 498-85 yd &
28-4 FD edges in a 41-7 romp. Bkup QB Jackson (Dalton knee, CS) rushed for 131. TCU’s D is phenomenal
all’g just 29.3 ypg rush (#1 NCAA), holding every opp under 75! They now take on a CSU tm that looked
like a diff squad LW behind the power-running of G. Johnson (191 yd) who leads with 491 (5.0). CSU went
up 14-3 after 1Q but UNLV battled back and took a 28-27 lead w/6:05 left. Johnson broke through for a 10
yd TD run w/:09 left. LV tried 5 laterals on the KR before Mosure knocked it down & ran the fmbl back for a
misleading 41-28 final. CSU did have a commanding 510-347 yd edge incl 216 rush yd. QB Farris bounced
bk LW (96 yd vs Cal) and now avg 235 ypg (66%) with a 5-5 ratio. WR Greer had an outstanding gm with
211 rec yd (26.4) and leads with 33 rec (17.3).TCU does have a huge gm vs BYU on deck, so lookahead is
a possibility here, but it’s tough to go with CSU who is just 1-5 S/’99 as a DD conf dog.
MISSOURI 52 Oklahoma St 35 - Last time here (‘04), OSU came back from 17 pts down (biggest comeback
S/‘79) for a 20-17 upset. Gundy is 3-9 SU on the B12 road and MO is 8-3 SU in the series (3 losses by 3
ppg). OSU is 10-24 as an AD and MO is 10-5 as a HF. OkSt is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS after hanging
50+ (4th str gm) on A&M. QB Robinson avg 207 ypg (72%) with a 10-3 ratio. OSU has the NCAA’s #2 rush
off lead by Hunter (708 yds, 7.0). MO also comes in 5-0 (3-1 ATS) after snapping a 15 gm losing streak in
Lincoln (52-17). Heisman hopeful QB Daniel avg 333 ypg (76%) with a 15-1 ratio. He has led 48 drives,
33 for a score, 5 punts & zero 3 & outs! Under Pinkel MO is 14-7-1 ATS vs B12 South and OSU is 12-22-1
ATS on the B12 road. Both off are high octane (MO #2 & OSU #6), but MO has the D edge (#31-63). MO
is in a tough B12 road sandwich but has won 10 str HG’s by at least 14. The last time OSU started 5-0
was in ‘04 before they played a ranked A&M squad and lost by 16 as a fav!
GEORGIA 27 Tennessee 6 - LY UT all’d UGA only 2 FD’s in the 1H & finished with a 411-243 yd edge (RB
Moreno was held to 30 yd) in their 35-14 win. LY UT had a bye the wk prior and Fulmer’s job was on the line.
TY the Dogs are off a bye and playing to avenge the gm that cost them the SEC East and a poss National
Title berth. The last meeting in Athens prod the most pts ever in the series, a 51-33 UT win. The dog has
3 outright upsets the L/4 and the visitor has won 4 of 5 with the avg win by 16 ppg. Richt is 10-2 SU off a
bye and the Vols are 2-4 as an AD. UGA RB Moreno (489, 6.3) suffered an elbow inj vs AL, but is exp to
play, but while TE Chandler is out and starting LB Ellerbe is doubtful (knee). UGA QB Stafford avg 239 ypg
(60%) with a 7-1 ratio with true Fr Green (PS#3) his top target (22, 17.6). UT’s new off has struggled with
QB Crompton (165 ypg, 52%, 2-4 ratio) being benched LW as they barely got past NI (held to 225 ttl yd & 9
FD) and Stephens threw for 156 yds & the gm’s only TD. This is a battle of Top 10 D’s, but UGA has a huge
edge on off (#11-52) plus has huge edges coming off the bye and playing at home with revenge.
USC 38 Arizona St 7 - ASU travels to the Coliseum after suffering their 3rd str defeat and has now dropped
8 of 9 ATS. The ground gm has been the main culprit as ASU avg just 85 ypg (2.9) rush TY while QB
Carpenter cont’s to carry the tm throwing for 270 ypg (67%) with an 8-4 ratio. ASU has also lost 8 str to
USC incl LY on Thanksgiving when they were held to a ssn low 259 yd incl 16 rush (0.5) in a 44-24 romp.
USC ret’d to its winning ways smashing Oreg 44-10 in a gm in which they put up nearly 600 yds ttl off. QB
Sanchez rebounded well from the OSU loss passing for 332 yd & 3 TD but suffered a 4Q knee inj (CS).
While ASU is 6-17-1 as an AD, they did cover their last trip here (+19) as they fell behind 21-0 but rallied
to tie as USC needed a TD w/4:29 left. USC has our #1 D and has surrendered just 223 ypg at home TY
which spells trouble vs an ASU tm that is 1-9 ATS in their 2nd consec RG.
OREGON 42 Ucla 14 - UO is 14-4 as a HF and returns here after being outgained 598-239 yds in their
34 pt loss to USC. Despite the QB issues TY, the off has fared well avg 483 ttl ypg led by the 1-2 punch
of RB’s Johnson & Blount who have comb to rush for 966 yd (6.3) and 15 TD. LY in a gm that featured
as many punts as FD’s (22), UCLA held the once high-powered UO off to just 148 ttl yd in a 16-0 win as
UO was playing its 1st gm after QB Dixon was lost for the yr. UCLA got its 1st conf win under new HC
Neuheisel as they beat Wash St for the 1st time in the Rose Bowl S/’98 holding WSU to just 177 ttl yd.
UCLA has beaten UO just twice S/’00 and the last time here we used UO as a 3H LPS (-8) in a gm that
they led 30-13 before a late TD. While the HT is just 5-11 ATS, UO has its 1st bye of the ssn on deck and
should be too much for a rebuilding UCLA squad here.
MICHIGAN 34 Toledo 13 - First meeting between these 2 which are 54 miles apart. UM is in a B10
sandwich and just 1-9 as a 20+ fav. UT is 1-8 ATS (0-9 SU) when visiting a BCS tm losing by an avg of 27
ppg. The Rockets are just 5-13 as an AD (1-1 TY) and are off a devastating 31-0 loss to Ball St, their 1st
MAC shutout S/’85 & 1st at home S/’78. UT was outgained 482-157 by the Cards and hasn’t scored a TD
in 7Q’s. RB Collins (371, 7.4) ret’d but had just 11 yds while QB Opelt has struggled avg 174 ypg (59%)
with a 7-3 ratio to rank #86 in the NCAA in pass eff. Rockets allow 171 rush ypg (4.1). The Wolves are off
to their worst start S/’67 after their 2H collapse vs Illinois in which they were outgained 501-319 and UM
lost 2 more fmbl’s (T-NCAA worst 11). “Good” Threet was 5-8 for 95 yds & 1 TD as Mich jumped out to a
14-3 lead but “Bad” Threet was 13-27 for 155 the rest of the game. Wolves’ D allows 109 rush ypg (2.7).
UM needs this for bowl elig and the offense gets back on track.
AUBURN 34 Arkansas 10 - The road tm has covered 3 in a row and in their last trip here Ark delivered
another Big Dog win when +15 they upset #2 Auburn 27-10. LY Ark was held to 67 yds rush (220 yds
below ssn avg) but appeared to pull out the win on a TD w/1:36 left but Auburn got a 20 yd FG on the
last play to pull the upset on the road (visitor is 5-1 SU). Tuberville takes on his former OC Petrino, who
nearly took his job in a failed coup in ‘03. Auburn is 5-1 SU & ATS in the series. The dog is 8-3 ATS. Aub is
off a distressing loss to Vandy in which their spread off (#73) was held to just 4 yds rush in the 2H and a
missed xp was the difference in the gm. QB Todd has avg 148 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio with mobile bkup
Burns only seeing spot duty. RB Tate is the top rusher (501, 4.4) and Ark has all’d 208 rush ypg (5.3). Ark
has also struggled in their new off (#74) led by QB Dick (238 ypg, 59%, 5-5 ratio). RB Smith (423, 5.7)
has been a bright spot. Ark’s OL though veteran, featuring Rimington winner Luigs, has struggled to pass
blk and has all’d 21 sks (last in NCAA) while Aub’s D has posted 13 sks. Ark is on an 0-6 ATS run (though
Aub 0-5 run) and faces their 4th consec Top 25 tm and have been outscored by an avg of 46-10 the L/3.
Aub has huge edges on D (#9-90) and ST’s (#18-108) and need a feel-good win, although their struggling
offense makes it tough (4-13 DD fav).
NEVADA 41 New Mexico St 38 - UN leads series 10-1 SU (3-3 ATS). The Wolf Pack has scored 40+pts
(avg 45 ppg) in each of the 3 meetings as WAC foes going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (avg win by 17 ppg). These
two have comb to avg 73 ppg the L/3. LY there were 6 lead changes & UN got a 31 yd TD pass w/1:00 left
for the win, 40-38 (-7). NMSt is just 1-17 SU & 5-13 ATS as an AD under HC Mumme but the lone SU win
was in the Aggies’ last AG vs UTEP (34-33, +7). QB Holbrook avg 280 ypg (67%) with a 10-5 ratio. WR’s
Williams (23 rec, 16.4) & Harris (26 rec, 9.7) have picked up where they left off LY but newcomer Anderson
has been a welcome addition with his big-play abilities resulting in 12 rec (21.3). UN HC Ault is 17-1 SU
& 14-2 ATS as a HF. The Wolf Pack has the edge on off (#14-57), D (#82-111) & ST’s (#105-114). UN’s
off avg 521 ypg led by dual-threat QB Kaepernick who is avg 191 ypg (66%) with a 6-2 ratio & leads with
511 yds rush & 8 TD. He has been causing opposing DC’s fits trying to find a way to slow him down. UN’s
“M&M” WR duo of Mitchell (22 rec, 17.3) & McCoy (21 rec, 7.2) help stretch the field. This is old school
WAC football meaning the last one with the ball wins.
N ILLINOIS 31 Miami, Oh 10 - MU is actually 8-1 SU in their first MAC AG but has lost 3 in a row to NI
(1-2 ATS) and lost their last trip here (‘05, 38-27). In ‘06, NI went ahead by 3 w/7:46 left 4Q & then held
MU twice near midfield winning 28-25 on the road (-13’). The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and off a 13-9 loss to
Tenn as a 16’ pt AD. They were only outgained 225-194 and settled for 3 FG’s of 25 yds or less. NI QB
Nicholson left with a shoulder inj in the 2Q (CS) and the game was tied 3-3 at the half. Bkup QB Grady hit
just 4-10 for 39 yds but led the tm with 47 yd (3.1) rushing. MU is 1-3 ATS and lost 28-10 to Temple as a 7
pt HF. They did have 20-11 FD and 303-294 yd edges but gave up 4 TO’s. MU brought in bkup QB Belton
in the 2H to replace an ineffective Raudabaugh (44%, 65 yds). Belton threw for 178 yds (48%) with an
0-1 ratio leading them to 10 unanswered 3Q pts. NI has the off (#78-109) and the D edges (#42-92) and
ranks higher than Temple in both categories.
BYU 41 New Mexico 13 - BYU is 7-1 as a DD HF. These two have met every yr S/‘51 & LY BYU scored 24 pts
off 5 NM TO’s in a 31-24 win. Mendenhall was the DC at NM from ‘98-‘02 installing the 3-3-5. The visitor has won
6 str ATS and NM is 21-13 (0-1 TY) as an AD and 17-7 ATS in conf AG’s. LW BYU extended its shutout streak
to 11Q’s before all’g an early 4Q TD in what many are calling a “disappointing” 34-14 win over Utah St. Collie
went over 100 yds rec for the 3rd str gm and leads with 38 rec (13.6) while TE Pitta has 35 (14.3). QB Hall is
avg 317 ypg (72%) with a 17-4 ratio and Unga has 455 rush yd (4.6). Cougs D is all’g an unprecedented 11.6
ppg TY. NM is off its 1st shutout in MWC history (& 1st shutout S/’83), beating WY 24-0 with a 350-201 yd edge.
Long said that they will spend TW working on Gruner’s pass gm as he has thrown for 88 ttl yd in his 2 sts (43%)
with an 0-0 ratio. RB Ferguson DNP LW (CS) & Wright finished w/120 yd (8.0). BYU has made it a habit to start
quickly which will force NM to throw and with a 3-10 tm ratio, it could be a long day for the Lobos.
OREGON ST 49 Washington St 10 - The Cougars journey to Corvallis fresh off yet another beatdown as
UCLA held WSU to just 177 ttl yds on 11 FD’s (2-14 3rd down conv). Not much has gone well on either
side of the ball as they are down to their 3rd string QB in Lobbestael (164 ypg, 54%, 4-4 ratio) and own a
D that has all’d 452 ypg vs IA opp’s (outscored by a 48-10 avg). LY WSU QB Brink was int’d 6 times (5 in
the 1H) in his final HG as the Cougs were hammered 52-17. In ‘06, WSU won their 1st game in Corvallis
S/’96 but they have struggled in B2B AG’s dropping 6 of 8 both SU & ATS. The Beavers have been dynamite
at home (414-262 yd edge) TY incl their monumental upset of #1 USC. While they dropped a heartbreaker
to Utah LW (outgained the Utes 405-337), they have HUGE edges vs WSU here in both off (#23-111) and
D (#20-104). Their best ball is also usually played now as over the L2Y, the Beavers have gone 13-2 SU
and 12-3 ATS after their 5th game of the regular ssn.
Arizona 30 STANFORD 23 - The Cardinal return home after playing 4 of 5 away incl LW’s loss to ND
giving us a 3H LPS Winner. Arizona has the NCAA’s #2 D surrendering just 226 ypg after another strong
performance vs the winless Huskies and will look for continued momentum. The visitor has gone 10-2
ATS. In their last trip to Stanford, the Wildcat D held the Cardinal to just 52 ttl yds (-6 rush) marking their
lowest ydg total in school history. However, LY Stanford scored a 4Q TD & recovered a fmbl at their own
22 w/2:00 left to pull out the road victory (+13, 21-20). Despite the Cats success in ‘08, they’ve played
our #111 schedule and have struggled in Oct under HC Stoops going just 3-14 SU in his 5 year tenure.
The Cardinal, on the other hand have played a much tougher sched TY (#5) and have actually won and
covered their L/3 HG’s incl SU wins vs Cal & Oreg St. The Cats beat up a Locker-less Huskies team LW,
SU is off a misleading final vs ND and both have much to prove.
KENT ST 23 Ohio 20 - KSU faces an Ohio tm on its 3rd AG in 4 wks. The last meeting here (‘06) was
played in 33 mph winds and two poor punts into the wind set up OU TD’s, in a gm that cost KSU the East
title. LY on the road KSU dominated more than the 33-25 final leading 27-10 with a 25-16 FD edge. The
Flashes are off a disappointing 2OT loss to rival Akron. KSU had 25-15 FD and 413-301 yd edges but
gave up a 4th down 24 yd TD pass after a flubbed punt to give Akron the lead late 4Q. They were still able
to come back with a late FG to send the game to OT but missed a short FG in the 2nd OT. Despite the
loss KSU covered their 2nd str (+3’). Ohio only trailed WM 11-7 at half but lost 41-20 as a 7 pt AD and was
outgained 503-356. OU had covered 4 str IA gms (incl 2 BCS) losing by a comb 24 pts. OU QB Jackson is
avg 189 ypg (58%) with a 9-7 ratio and RB Harden rush with 339 (5.3). KSU QB Edelman is avg 137 ypg
(53%) with a 7-6 ratio and leads with 487 yds (5.1). Both tms are 1-4 SU but neither is being dominated
by opp’s. They both have suffered several key inj’s and have found ways to lose.
CINCINNATI 23 Rutgers 17 - Rutgers led 17-7 LY at home but Cincy scored 2 TD’s in :19 & went on for
the win. QB Teel passed for 334 yds (58%) but threw 3 int & was sacked twice. Rutgers got to the Cincy
17 but was int’d at the end. Last time here UC won the biggest gm in program history with the 30-11 upset
over #7 Rutgers knocking them from the BCS race as a 4H LPS Winner. Cincy defeated Marshall LW
33-10. After inj’s to the #1 and #2 QB’s, rFr Anderson made his 1st start & threw for 158 yds (62%) with 2
TD’s and ran for another. Rutgers come-from-behind drive was cut short in their 24-17 loss to WV. A team
that came into the season with high hopes on offense has struggled to find the run game, and QB Teel
has had trouble protecting the ball with a 3-7 ratio. The HT is 5-2 ATS and Cincy is 6-2 ATS vs the Knights.
Rutgers has a slight def edge (#47-49) and Cincy has off edge (#54-80), a huge ST’s edge (#10-101) and
is 27-10 S/’02 at home. While RU has struggled TY, they are looking up at Cincy in the Big East standings
which puts them in a favorable position.
TEXAS TECH 48 Nebraska 20 - One of our favorite 5H’s of all-time was in ‘04 as we used TT (-7) and
they ROMPED NU 70-10! Huskers are 4-10 as an AD (8-17 SU on B12 road) and this marks their FIRST
road trip in 6 wks and Lubbock is a tough place with TT 16-9 as a B12 HF (also TT HC, 14-2 SU & 13-3
ATS). TT has been unimpressive in non-conf play but took care of KSU LW 58-28 to remain unbeaten.
QB Harrell is avg 405 ypg (67%) with an 18-3 ratio. WR Crabtree has 38 rec (14.8) & 8 TD. NU has
dropped B2B gms after a 3-0 start and will be on their 3rd leg of their most difficult stretch of ‘08. QB
Ganz is avg 257 ypg (66%) with a 9-5 ratio. NU is ranked #19 in our pass eff def allowing 243 ypg (60%)
with a 5-5 ratio. Both offenses are potent (TT #3 & NU #24), but TT has the D edge (#26-64) the Raiders
have played a soft sked (#107) so far as the Huskers will be their toughest opp to date. Under Leach
TT is 43-10 in Lubbock (23-14 HF) and since this is their only HG in 5 wks look for the Red Raiders to
take care of a Husker team that hasn’t won on the B12 road since ‘06 (1-6-1 ATS AG run).
KANSAS 31 Colorado 17 - CU is 2-8 SU (4-10 ATS run) on the B12 road. LY CU held #15 KU to 31
pts & 183 yds below its ssn avg as they had FD & yd edges in a 19-14 loss at home (+3’). CU is 5-2
SU vs KU with their wins by 16 ppg and losses by 5 ppg. KU is 14-5 as a HF and CU just 3-9 as an
AD. KU beat ISU LW 35-33. It was the 3rd largest come-from-behind victory in school history erasing a
20 pt HT deficit to escape the upset. QB Reesing is avg 343 ypg (70%) with a 14-3 ratio. The Jayhawk
ground gm (only 119 ypg, 3.4.) is still struggling to get on track & now faces a CU rush D all’g 171 ypg
(4.5). LW the Buffs lost to Texas 38-14. QB Hawkins (185 ypg, 59%, 10-4) has struggled the L2W, but
CU has suffered many OL inj’s and have only 2 upperclassmen in the 2-deep! KU rolled B12 opp’s at
home LY with the avg win by 41 pts (+222 ypg), Mangino is 7-3 as a B12 HF and the Jayhawks have
the off (#25-76) & D edges (#41-50). KU needs to take care of business vs the Buffs with four ranked
B12 foes still waiting ahead (#1 OU on deck).
Penn St 27 WISCONSIN 20 - Low scoring series with the teams avg 37 ppg & PSU has scored only 2
FG’s in their L/2 trips to Madison. The HT is 4-0 SU/ATS winning by an avg of 25.5-6.7. LY PSU dominated
at home 38-7 (-6’) with 437 yds. Wisky is the 1st Big Ten team to open the ssn with Mich, OSU and
PSU in a row and after B2B comeback losses are now reduced to playing spoiler. QB Evridge has
struggled in conf play avg 187 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio while being sk’d 6x (0 in 1st 3). RB Hill (512,
4.7) is splitting time with the quicker PS#3 rFr Clay (269, 6.7). UW has all’d big yds in the 2H of the L/3
gms & was 3 Fresno missed FG’s away from losing all 3. PSU is off a 20-6 win at Purdue in which they
outgained the Boilers 422-236. Big Ten pass eff leader QB Clark avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 9-1 ratio.
RB Royster has 659 yds (7.9). Lions lead the league in rush D allowing 80 ypg (2.5) with 17 sk. PSU
has the edges all around and starts a new, negative home streak for the reeling Badgers.
SAN JOSE ST 27 Utah St 10 - SJSt has won 10 of the L/11 but 6 of the L/7 have been decided by
7 pts or less. SJSt is 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS as a HF under HC Tomey & the Spartans are on a 9-3 ATS
run. In ‘06 here, the Aggies led 14-0 (+17) but SJSt got a TD with 3:56 left for the 21-14 win. USU QB
Borel is avg 121 ypg (57%) with a 6-3 ratio & also has 257 yds rushing. His fav target, Nelson has 19
rec (11.3) & 2 TD while RB Turbin has 263 yds (5.2) & 3 TD. USU’s D is ranked #108 in the NCAA all’g
436 ypg. SJSt has the edge on both off (#106-112) & D (#40-99). Spartan QB Reed is avg 163 ypg
(73%) with a 4-2 ratio & also has 4 TD rushing. RB Davis has 326 yd (5.5) while WR has Richmond
has 28 rec (11.4). SJSt’s D is ranked #22 (NCAA) all’g 287 ypg. The Spartans’ DL has shown a spike
in production TY as the unit has accounted for 10 sacks (tm has 15, T-#9 NCAA) thru 5 gms led by C
Ihenacho who has 5, matching his ttl from all of LY. SJSU’s entire DL unit had 11 sks in ‘07. Both teams
have WAC AG’s on deck with SJSt facing NMSt & USU meeting Nevada.
Tulsa 48 SMU 38 - Tulsa is 5-10 SU vs SMU & the HT has won 6 str with SMU on a 4-0 ATS run. LY
was a tough loss for SMU as they led 23-22 and had the ball at the Tulsa 1 but were SOD. Tulsa got a
51 yd TD pass with :43 left for the win. SMU won 34-24 (+6’) in the last meeting in Dallas in ‘06. Tulsa
is off a 63-28 win over Rice that was actually close in the 1H. TU only led 21-14 at the half, but turned
it on after the break. Tulsa rushed for a ssn high 386 yds (7.3) and outgained Rice 577-453. Tulsa’s
maligned D (#108) forced 4 TO’s and produced 2 sks. SMU is off a 31-17 loss to UCF in which they
outgained the Knights 376-280. The SMU D (#117) actually had its best performance to date, but TO’s
and ST’s mistakes made it hard to keep UCF out of the EZ. True Fr QB Mitchell threw for 351 yds but
also 3 int, bringing his ratio to 13-15 on the ssn. TU HC Graham is 2-4 as a DD conf fav and SMU has
won the L/6 SU (5-1 ATS) at home in the series. Despite a huge off edge for Tulsa (#5-101), look for
SMU to make it a closer game than many would predict.
Boise St 31 SOUTHERN MISS 21 - LY SM all’d a ssn high 506 yds to Boise in a 38-16 loss on ESPN.
TY Boise travels to the green grass and the humidity of the South and the Broncos are just 6-10 as an
AF (3-6 under Petersen). SM is 1-0 as a HD in FIVE yrs. Boise did go into Fresno and win by 13 (-3) LY
(another hostile environment). The #15 ranked Broncos got extra rest as they beat LA Tech 38-3 last
Wed. QB Moore was 20-28 for 325 yds and 2 TD and is now completing 72% of his passes with a 7-2
ratio on the ssn. SM is coming off a 2OT home loss to UTEP, 40-37, and has lost 2 straight HG’s. SM
outgained UTEP 541-382, as RB Fletcher became the school’s all-time leading rusher with a career
high 260 yd, but needed a last second FG to force OT. Boise has the adv on off (#38-55) and on D
(#37-80), but SM has played the tougher sked (#51-99). SM HC Fedora is 3-0 ATS vs non-conf in his
1st yr and expect the prideful Golden Eagles to keep this relatively close.
UTEP 37 Tulane 23 - LY TU jumped out to a 17-0 lead & cruised to a 34-19 win outgaining UTEP 485-
412. This is the 4th meeting as each gm has been decided by 14+ with the winner scoring 34+. UTEP
is 2-1 in the series and the ATS winner has covered by DD each time. Tulane is 11-22-1 ATS in CUSA
play. UTEP is 3-12 as a fav in CUSA, 2-9 under Price. UTEP is coming off 2 consec conf SU/ATS wins
incl at SM LW 40-37 in 2OT. QB Vittatoe threw 4 TD in the win and has a 7-1 (9-4 overall) ratio the L/2.
UTEP was outgained 541-382, but played a “bend but don’t break” D in the 2H forcing 3 RZ FG’s by
the Eagles. Tulane is coming off a shocking 44-13 loss to previously winless Army. TU turned the ball
over 4x’s and 2 of those (1 FR, 1 IR) went to the house for Army scores. TU was playing catch-up the
whole gm and outgained Army 489-334, but never got closer than 10 pts. QB Moore threw 2 picks and
only has a 6-6 ratio on the ssn. Tulane travels to the Sun Bowl off a tough loss so expect UTEP to keep
their CUSA momentum going.
Air Force 24 SAN DIEGO ST 17 - LY AF had 3 plyrs rush for 100+ yd (tm ssn-high 569 yd rush) and
these 2 comb for 1,176 yd ttl off. SDSt is 7-4 ATS and the fav is 5-10 ATS in the series. SDSt is 9-15
as a HD (1st TY) but 10-3 ATS in conf HG. This is their Skyshow which routinely draws the season's
largest home crowd. In ‘06 SDSt (+13’) won outright, 19-12 but got a FG w/:02 left & added a TD picking
up a lateral on the KO. SDSt was thrashed 41-7 LW with TCU holding HUGE edges (498-95 yd, 28-4
FD, SDSt -13 yds rush!). QB Lindley went out late 1Q (CS) and bkup JC Westling hit 6-17 for 61 yd
with SDSt getting just 2 FD’s (55 ttl yds) after Lindley left. AF is off a very disappointing loss to Navy as
poor ST’s play did them in. AF had 411-244 yd & 20-13 FD edges but could not overcome 2 blk’d P for
TD’s. The Falcons bounce back well though, as they are 5-1 ATS the gm after Navy. SDSt has taken on
some below avg rush tms and all’d 245 ypg (4.9). Not counting the UT gm (UT 2-1 yd edge, only 3 pt
loss), AF avg 325 ypg rush (4.9). Five of the L/7 in series have been upsets incl 2 as DD’s.
FRESNO ST 51 Idaho 13 - Fresno leads 6-4 but has won the L/5 by an avg of 36-14 (3-0 ATS). FSU is
3-0 SU & ATS S/’05 in the 3 gms as WAC foes. Since joining the WAC in ‘05, UI is 2-20 SU & 8-13-1 ATS
as an AD & the Vandals are in a 1-13 ATS slump. UI QB Enderle is avg 175 ypg (53%) with a 9-7 ratio
while TE/WR Williams has 36 rec (13.9) & has more than 3x as many catches as the next rec (11). UI’s D
is #119 in the NCAA all’g 504 ypg & has just 2 sks (last in the NCAA). FSU’s goal for an outright WAC Title
took a hit LW with a home loss to Hawaii (32-29 in OT, -22’) as TO’s & missed FG’s loomed large for the
Bulldogs. FSU entered LW tied for #5 in the NCAA with only 4 TO’s lost but had 6 vs UH & K Goessling
missed a pair of FG’s (one with :43 to play, another in OT) that proved costly. FSU is 6-2 SU but only
2-6 ATS as a HF. The Bulldogs have the edge here on off (#31-117), def (#84-119) & ST’s (#41-96). QB
Brandstater avg 222 ypg (61%) with an 8-5 ratio but did have 3 int LW. RB Mathews has 468 yds (5.6) &
4 TD while TE Pascoe has 20 rec (9.0). FSU gets back on track before their bye.
Ball St 37 WKU 13 - LY WK had a 411-363 yd edge but lost 35-12 in a gm much closer than the final.
BSU is 5-1 as an AF but hasn’t been a DD AF S/’92. This is only the 2nd IA school to visit WK and they
nearly upset Troy with a 416-363 yd edge in a 21-17 loss. BSU is off its first shutout S/’00 with 31-0
win over Tol and is 6-0 for 1st time S/’65 and ranked for the 1st time ever. They held Toledo to 14 yds
rush. QB Davis avg 277 ypg (69%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis has 802 yd (5.6). WK is off its 27-13
loss (closest loss to a IA school) to Virg Tech being outgained only 293-243 but outFD’d 19-8. They did
outgain VT 147-118 in the 2H and outscored them 10-7. WK QB Black is avg 92 ypg (56%) with a 1-0
ratio. RB Rainey has 183 yds (6.5) and WR Cooper has 10 rec (15.1). This is BSU’s (#29 off, #61 def)
4th RG in 5 wks and WK’s (#116 off, #120 def) 2nd HG out of 7.
ARKANSAS ST 30 Ulm 23 - The HT is 4-1 SU with the avg win by 7 ppg. LY ULM was at home (+2’)
and down 13-0 early 2Q before scoring 30 unanswered pts for their largest MOV. The underdog has
covered EIGHT in a row with SIX outright upsets! ULM is 14-6 ATS on the road but ASU is 15-3 SU at
home. ULM is off a 44-35 loss vs ULL being outgained 728-383 (556-241 rush). ULM QB Lancaster
avg 167 ypg (58%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Goodin has 313 yds (5.0) and WR McNeal has 18 rec (12.0).
ASU is off of a bye after losing 29-17 to Mem putting up 228 1H yds but only 124 in 2H. QB Leonard
avg 222 ypg (55%) with a 10-2 ratio. RB Lawson has 447 yds (8.6). WR Johnson has 11 rec (17.1).
You've got to respect the series history and take the dog.
Middle Tennessee 16 FIU 9 - The HT is 3-0 SU (FIU 2-1 ATS) as LY MT held FIU to just 145 ttl yds
and MT scored 47 in the 1st HALF! FIU rallied in the 2H to win 35-31 in their 1st meeting here in Miami
in ‘05. FIU is off their 2nd consec win (1st time since end of ‘05 ssn) beating N Texas 42-10 despite
being outgained 428-347 and outFD’d 22-13. They were down 13-0 and being outgained 160-14 in
1Q vs Toledo before putting up 35 pts (3 TD came on 4th down). FIU QB McCall avg 101 ypg (48%)
with 5-5 ratio and WR Hilton has 8 rec (35.5). MT is 5-2 as an AF. They are off their 14-13 win over
FAU snapping a 4 gm conf losing streak. Craddock threw a 32 yd Hail Mary on 4&9 as time expired
for the win. Craddock avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 7-3 ratio and WR Beyah has 18 rec (22.9). MT stops
the Panthers' modest win streak.
Louisiana-Lft 48 NORTH TEXAS 27 - Nine of the L/10 in the series have been decided by 9 or more pts.
ULL is 4-8 SU vs NT, its worst record vs any SBC tm. ULL is off a 44-35 win over ULM outgaining them
728-383 (556-241 rush) both school records. Fenroy rushed for school rec 297 yds. QB Desormeaux
avg 172 ypg (61%) with a 3-4 ratio and Fenroy has 750 yds (8.3). LY, NT rFr QB Vizza made his 1st start
& threw for 383 yds on 57 att’s but suffered 3 int in the 38-29 road loss (+8) and NT had a 527-414 yd
edge. NT is 7-1 ATS in the series (1 pt loss LY) and is off a 42-10 loss to FIU. Vizza avg 204 ypg (63%)
with a 4-6 ratio. WR Fitzgerald has 41 rec (9.7). This is ULL’s 4th AG in 5 wks. They have our #16 off
avg 331 rush ypg (7.6). NT has the #118 D but has played the #14 toughest sked. They are giving up
just 160 rush ypg (4.5). SBC visiting tms are 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS so far TY.
Sunday, October 12th
Louisiana Tech at HAWAII - UH leads the series 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS and the HT is 5-1 ATS. UH is 9-1
SU & 6-4 ATS in WAC HG’s. The Warriors had their 9 gm home win streak snapped 2 wks ago but UH
is coming off its 1st ever win over a ranked tm foll a 32-29 OT win at #22 Fresno. Since ‘04, UH 15-10
ATS as a HF while LT is 3-22 SU & 5-20 ATS as an AD. In the L/3Y, LT is just 1-14 SU (3-12 ATS) as
an AD. UH has the edge on off (#87-104) & D (#75-97) but LT has a huge edge on ST (#5-112). UH is
#116 in the NCAA in TO margin but won the TO battle 6-1 LW. UH has a short week with a Fri night gm
at Boise on deck while LT hosts Idaho next.<!-- / message -->
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-125.
Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT
UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's
Underdog Play of the Week:
The Spartans are 9-24 SU on the B10 road. In their last matchup in Evanston, MSU rallied from a
38-3 3Q deficit for the NCAA’s largest-ever comeback. The road tm has won 3 in a row SU and is
7-0 ATS! LY we used NW (+16) as the Big Dog play and they pulled the upset in OT 48-41 with QB
Bacher throwing for 520 yds (NW 611-481 yd edge). NW is fresh off a bye and is off to its 1st 5-0 start
S/’62, the same yr the 1st Walmart store opened in Bentonville, AR. A win here would clinch bowl
elig earlier than at any time in the program’s history (10/19/96). QB Bacher (208 ypg, 53%, 7-5 ratio)
& RB Sutton (464, 5.3) needed the wk off after being banged up. The Cats start can be credited to
their D which leads the conf with 17 sks (just 18 in ‘07) and allows 112 rush yds (3.4). MSU survived
a 4Q comeback by Iowa by stopping RB Greene on 4th & 1 at the MSU 21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks
became the 1st team to contain Ringer (#2 NCAA with 988, 4.7) who was held to 91 yds (3.6). By
game’s end MSU was playing without its entire starting secondary. The fresh Cats take advantage of
a tired Spartans team off a physical gm. FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 27 Michigan St 23
KEY SELECTIONS
4* MIAMI, FL over Ucf - 1st meeting and UCF is 0-4 visiting in-state schools losing by 36 ppg S/‘96.
Normally UM would not be up for a lower rung in-state school but UCF is the defending CUSA champ
and Miami is 2-3 and wants to prove there’s still a huge divide between the programs to in-state recruits.
They are off a misleading loss to rival Fla St with an ACC game on deck. LW for UCF QB Greco took over
for true Fr Calabrese in the 2H and engineered 3 scoring drives to defeat SMU 31-17. On the season
he is avg 107 ypg (53%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Weaver, who had his 1st 100 yd rush gm LW, has 328 yds
(3.7) on the season. UM is coming off a disappointing conf loss in a game they trailed 31-10 3Q and
got to within 34-32 w/8:00 left in a game in which true Fr Benjamin (PS#54) had 274 all-purp yds. On
the ssn QB Marve is avg 135 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio. RB Cooper, who has taken over for the inj’d
James and has 322 rush yds (5.4). Both of Miami’s wins are vs non-conf foes TY and the Canes need
a feel-good win to prove their still relevant to in-state players after losing to UF and FSU.
FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 37 Ucf 10
3*WEST VIRGINIA over Syracuse - This is played for the Schwartzwalder Trophy. LY WV won their
6th (5-1 ATS) in a row SU and their 55 pts were the most Syr ever all’d at home. QB White sat out the
2H with inj. The fav is 15-1 ATS! The only non-cover was last time here in ‘06 when WV won 41-17
(-25’) and WV had a 562-227 yd edge. Syr is 4-2 ATS vs ranked tms on the road and pulled a stunner
LY upsetting #18 Louisville (+37). Syr is off a bye after their 34-24 loss to Pitt, a gm they led 24-16 in
the 4Q. The Orange are all’g 157 ypg rush (4.7) and now face a potent rush attack avg 206 ypg (5.1).
LW WV held on to defeat Rutgers 24-17. QB White left in the 3Q (head, CS). If WV has to go without
White they are in capable hands with backup Jarrett “Big” Brown and RB Devine (454 yds, 5.7). WV
has huge edges on off (#33-98) and def (#33-116) and the home edge and will roll into the bye at 4-2
before facing Auburn. FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 45 Syracuse 10
3* Notre Dame over NORTH CAROLINA - While ND is 16-1 SU in the series, their last trip here was
in 1975 and in their only recent meeting a 3-9 NCar team covered (+24’) 26-45 in South Bend in 2006 vs
Sugar Bowl bound ND (ND ended gm on NC’s 20). This matches our #1 vs #2 Most Improved tms. NC (4-1)
is off to its best start S/’97. QB Sexton, starting for the inj’d Yates (ankle), is avg 180 ypg (57%) with a 3-1
ratio. WR Nicks has 24 rec (17.2) and Tate is avg 195 all-purp ypg. NC’s D is #1 in NCAA with 12 int. QB
Clausen, who threw for 347 yds LW vs Stanford giving us a 3H LPS Winner, is avg 250 ypg (61%) with a
12-6 ratio, however, the 6 int were in the 1st 3 gms and he has 0 since. ND’s WR Tate has 23 rec (17.3)
and Floyd has 21 (15.9). ND has struggled running the ball other than vs Purdue and prior to LW only had
1 sk (5 sks vs Stanford). These tms matchup pretty evenly on both sides of the ball (ND off #43-45, NC
def #43-51). Rare line value with ND as both are off misleading finals (see News & Notes) and the Irish
prove why they are our Most Improved. FORECAST: Notre Dame 24 NORTH CAROLINA 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Bowling Green over AKRON - LY BG had a ssn high 517 yds off, incl 295 in the 1H vs Akron.
Akron RB Kennedy had a career high 178 yds (7.4) & 2 TD vs BG in ‘06. Akron is 0-11 SU the week
after playing rival Kent. BG is 1-6 as an AF and Akron is 5-1 as a HD. BG is coming off a shocking loss
as they allowed EM to score a TD with :36 left losing 24-21 as a 20’ pt HF. The Falcons were outgained
410-391 and outFD’d 23-18. Akron is coming off a shocking win thanks to a Kent St flubbed punt that
set them up for a TD with less than 5:00 left. Akron won 30-27 as a 3’ AF as Kent St missed a short
FG in the 2nd OT. The Zips were outFD’d 25-15 and outgained 413-301. This will be the Zips final HC
in the Rubber Bowl. BG has the off (#68-92) and D (#78-96) edges. BG QB Sheehan is avg 242 ypg
(66%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Bullock leads the tm with 237 yds (4.2). Akron QB Jacquemain is avg 243
ypg (59%) with a 10-9 ratio. RB Kennedy leads the Zips with 291 yds (4.1). Akron’s weakness is run
D where they are all’g 222 ypg (4.6) so it’s time for the Falcons to work out their offensive kinks.
FORECAST: Bowling Green 30 AKRON 20
2* FLORIDA over Lsu - LY the Gators led 17-7 at HT and 24-14 early 4Q but lost 28-24 (+7) in Death
Valley as LSU went 5/5 on 4th down tries. LSU is 3-1 SU in this series but the 3 wins are by 11 pts comb.
The HT is 4-12 ATS and UF is 7-2 ATS in this series. LSU is 3-10 ATS vs SEC East tms, but UF has
struggled vs West tms also (4-8-1 ATS) incl an outright upset loss to Ole Miss a few wks ago. The Gators
are 15-5 SU & 13-6 ATS the week prior to a bye. Tebow has avg just 205 ypg pass (62%) with an 8-1 ratio
and only 157 rush (2.6) a far cry from his ‘07 Heisman ssn. LSU LB Darry Beckwith is exp to return (out
L/2). UF is banged up on the OL with their top 2 LG’s missing the last gm (CS). Meyer has never lost 2 in
a row SU at home. UF has slight edges on off (#8-21), def (#4-14) and ST’s (#1-8). LSU QB Lee makes
his 1st road start in The Swamp and has avg 161 ypg (58%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Scott has 535 rush (7.5)
and leads the SEC in rush ypg (134). UF is 7-2 as a HF & LSU hasn’t been an AD since their 23-10 loss
(+1) to UF in the Swamp in ‘06. These 2 teams have captured the L/2 BCS Championships, but UF has
the all-important home edge and the superior QB in this one. FORECAST: FLORIDA 30 Lsu 17
2* W Michigan over BUFFALO - Last met in ‘05 as WM QB Hiller made his debut (WM -10’, 31-
21). WM is 3-0 SU vs Buff (all by 10+ pts). HC Cubit is 2-5-1 as an AF and Gill is 3-1 as a MAC HD.
Buff is fresh off a bye (but is 0-7 off bye) while WM is playing a 7th str wk and has rival CM on deck
(0-4 ATS gm prior to CM). We won a 3H Small Coll Play on WM (-7) as they beat Ohio 41-20, with a
503-356 yd edge. UB just missed knocking off CM as the gm winning FG (lost 27-25, +6’) went off the
upright as time expired. WM has the off (#46-65) and D (#66-76) edges but the Bulls have played the
tougher schedule (#11-117). Both tms beat Temple TY (UB 30-28, -6, TU QB DiMichele did play, WM
7-3, -4, DiMichele DNP). WM is led by QB Hiller, who avg 284 ypg (69%) with a 19-4 ratio. RB West
leads with 574 (5.6). UB is led by QB Willy who avg 260 ypg (64%) with a 12-3 ratio and RB Starks
has 390 (4.8) despite missing time (inj). WM’s dominance on both sides of the ball have not shown up
on the scoreboard yet but expect different results here. FORECAST: W Michigan 27 BUFFALO 21
OTHER GAMES
Tuesday, October 7th Troy at FLORIDA ATLANTIC - FAU snapped a 4 gm losing streak to Troy LY
with their 38-32 road win (+16) stealing the SBC Title in Troy’s FHG. FAU is 10-4 ATS in conf play but is
off a devastating last second loss to Mid Tenn. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road gm (in 4 wks) and they were
outgained 612-416 LW vs Okla St but beat that same Blue Raiders squad 31-17 in the opener.
Thursday, October 9th Clemson at WAKE FOREST - LY CU’s Harper threw for 3 TD & ran for a 4th
in a 44-10 win (scored on 1st 4 poss). Prior to ‘07 WF HC Grobe was 4-0-2 ATS vs Clemson with his
biggest SU loss by 10 and two outright upsets. Clem’s L/3 trips here have been a comeback win and
SU losses by 28 and 4. CU was the preseason favorite to win the ACC but are 1-1 in conf play so they
need this win here to stay in the race while WF got their conf win at FSU, a team CU will also face on
the road. This could be the ACC Atlantic Title game
Uab at HOUSTON - These two have avg 60 ppg in their previous matchups. LY UH jumped out to a
35-10 HT lead in ‘07 outgaining an undermanned UAB squad 540-224 in a 49-10 win (-13’) as a 4H Key
Selection winner. UAB journeys to Houston after dropping a heartbreaker vs Memphis last Thur and is
now playing for a 7th str wk riding a 6-11-1 ATS record vs the CUSA. After a big win at #23 EC a few wks
back, UH returns from a bye where they have struggled as a DD HF going just 4-13 ATS (0-4 LY).
Friday, October 10th Louisville at MEMPHIS - This is an old CUSA rivalry with UL 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS
(last met in ‘04, UL -13’ won on the road, 56-49). The dog is 11-1 ATS. UL HC Kragthorpe (at Tulsa) is
2-0 ATS vs Mem HC West. This is a conf sandwich game for Memphis with EC on deck while UL returns
home vs Mid Tenn. Louisville is off a bye while Memphis is off a Thurs night win over rival UAB.
Saturday Games
East Carolina 27 VIRGINIA 17 - In their only recent meeting in ‘06, EC was -6’ at
home and won 31-21. The dog is 15-5 ATS when EC is on the road. EC is off a bye but has a home conf
game on deck. The Cavs were outscored 128-20 in their previous 3 BCS gms but finally clicked LW and
shutout MD 31-0. QB Vercia, who took over for Lalich (kicked off tm), is avg 145 ypg (62%) with a 2-5
ratio. WR Ogletree has 27 rec (11.8). The Pirates have the edge on off (#77-96) but they matchup almost
evenly on D (UVA #60-65). QB Pinkney avg 203 ypg (68%) with a 6-3 ratio. WR Harris has 33 rec (10.5).
EC is 9-3 off a SU loss under Holtz but now faces the Cavs off an upset win by 31 pts (2 TD dog).
Iowa 27 INDIANA 20 - LY in Iowa City, Hawks QB Christensen threw for 308 yd but Indy had 9 sks
and got their 2nd str upset of Iowa with their biggest margin (38-20) S/’45. Hoosier QB Lewis has avg’d
305 ttl ypg while accounting for 7 TD’s in 2 career winning sts vs Iowa. Ferentz is 3-5 SU vs Indy and
is 0-7 as an AF with 5 OUTRIGHT losses. Hawks have lost 3 str by a comb ttl of 9 pts incl LW’s 16-13
defeat at MSU in which RB Greene (NCAA’s #6 rusher w/822, 6.4) was SOD on 4th & 1 at the MSU
21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks rallied from a 16-3 deficit created in part by QB Stanzi’s 3 1H TO’s (5 of
tm’s 8 in L/2 gms) but couldn’t finish for their 8th str loss by 3 or less. Indy also lost their 3rd in a row in
an unexpected 16-7 D struggle vs Minny in which they were outFD’d 22-10. Both QB’s played but the
tm’s lone TD came on a 77 yd pass from Chappell to Thigpen (3 TD’s of 75+ in L/2). Iowa has all of the
edges especially on D (#19-69) and this is a must-win for both tms’ post season hopes.
ILLINOIS 34 Minnesota 20 - UM HC Brewster is an IL alum who campaigned to get the Illini job before
Zook. The Gophers are 6-2 SU (series) but lost LY 44-17 in Brewster’s 1st test vs Zook as the Illini ran
for a ssn high 448 yd. IL is 7-2 SU at home (series) but lost the last time here in ‘03, 36-10 (+15’). The
Illini rallied from a 14-3 deficit and scored the most pts in their history over Mich in a 45-20 win in the
Big House. B10 ttl offense leader QB Williams (243 ypg, 57%, 11-6 ratio, 404 rush yds) had the most
yds in Michigan Stadium history (431). The D settled down and tied their ssn high with 4 sks and all’d
the Wolves just 69 rush yds (2.0). After being 1-11 in ‘07, UM is 1 win away from bowl eligibility after
their 16-7 win over Indy in which they held the potent Hoosiers to just 10 FD, 293 yds and 1 offensive
TD. QB Weber (238 ypg, 68%, 8-2 ratio) and WR Decker (#3 NCAA with 50 rec, 13.9) are the league’s
most prolific pitch & catch combo. UM is #2 in the NCAA in TO margin at +10. The Gophers will have
to wait at least one more wk to start making post season plans.
OKLAHOMA 34 Texas 27 - Red River Rivalry (103rd) and UT has covered 3 str (2-1 SU) but has been
outgained L/2Y benefitting from +7 TO (OU 333-232 yd edge in ‘06). LY was the 1st RRR gm S/’97 that
was not decided by DD but surprisingly the dog is 13-7 ATS. #1 OU (4-0 ATS) cont’d its dominance
rolling BU LW 49-17 and has outgained foes by 284 ypg. QB Bradford avg 333 ypg (73%) with an 18-3
ratio. #5 Texas took care of CU on the road LW 38-14 is 5-0 ATS avg 47 ppg TY. QB McCoy avg 256
ypg (79%) with a 16-3 ratio. OU is on a 25-4 SU & 19-8-1 ATS run but struggled vs TCU (comparable
def to UT) rushing for just 25 yds on 36 carries and the Frogs penetrated OU terr 8 times and came
away with NO pts (2 punt, 3 SOD & 3 TO)! Both tms rank in the top 10 in off/def and the last time they
both came in undefeated was in ‘04 (OU won 12-0, last cover). This will be the 4th time that Stoops and
Brown bring Top 5 ranked squads into Dallas and the Sooners are 3-0 SU & ATS.
ARMY 23 E Michigan 22 - Last met in ‘92, a 57-17 Army win. Both tms are off outright wins as DD AD’s.
EM scored with :36 left beating BG 24-21 as a 20’ pt dog. Army’s option has finally started to click as they
avg 6.6 ypc and seemingly dominated Tulane 44-13 as a 19’ pt dog. However Army was outFD’d 25-13 and
outgained 486-334 D scored 2 TD incl an 81 yd FR as they were +4 TO. Army is avg 222 ypg (4.1) rush
while EM is all’g 184 ypg rush (4.9 ypc). EM is in a MAC sandwich, on 3rd AG in 4 wks and is just 3-10
ATS in non-conf AG’s. Army is 9-5 SU on HC and is trying to break a 5 gm home losing streak after ending
the nation’s longest losing streak (10 gm) LW. EM is just 1-4 ATS TY while Army has covered 2 str. Army,
after being led in rushing by QB Bowden the L/2W, was led by FB Mooney with 187 (9.8) and he now leads
with 416 (5.0). EM QB Schmitt avg 133 ypg (61%) with a 2-2 ratio. Take the points.
BAYLOR 31 Iowa St 24 - ISU is 3-14 SU & 5-12 ATS vs the B12 South. Cyclones have dropped 9 str
B12 AG’s w/the avg loss by 20 ppg. In their L/gm in ‘05, BU won its 1st ever B12 AG beating ISU 23-13
(0-37 coming in). BU is 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS after facing OU but 7-3 as a HF. The Bears ran into #1 OU
LW and as usual lost 49-17. QB Griffin avg 166 ypg (56%) with a 7-0 ratio and leads with 436 rush yd
(5.7) accounting for 64% of the BU off. ISU nearly turned in the upset over KU but lost 35-33 LW. Kan
needed to rally from a 20 pt deficit to escape with the win. QB Arnaud seems to have the #1 spot avg
182 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio. Both tms have struggled on the road (ISU 10-45 SU) but have won at
each others stadium in ‘04 & ‘05 (BU 2-0 ATS). Both tms are 2-3 and need a win to keep a bowl berth
alive, but BU has the off edge (#48-75) and seems to be ahead in Briles schemes at this point, compared
to what Chizik has done with the Cyclones.
South Carolina 20 KENTUCKY 13 - SC DE Norwood tied an NCAA record with 2 FR TD’s in LY’s
38-21 (-4) SC win in a Thurs PPH Nite win in which #11 SC had the ball at the UK2 at the end. It was
SC’s first win over a Top 10 tm (UK #8) S/’88. SC has won 8 in a row SU and Spurrier is 15-0 vs UK.
The visitor is 11-5 ATS while UK is 8-3 as a HD. UK is off a close loss to #2 Bama in which a fmbl by
QB Hartline (ret’d by Bama for a TD) was the difference. Hartline has avg 175 ypg (56%) with a 5-2
ratio. SC seems to be getting back on track with 3 str wins to put themselves back in bowl contention.
Spurrier stuck with QB Smelley (195 ypg, 63%, 9-7 ratio) LW and he threw for a career high 327 yds &
3 TD in their win over Miss. This is a battle of Top 20 D’s with SC having a slight edge (#11-18). UK’s D
all’d 282 rush yd (5.8) to the Tide LW, so SC RB Davis (327, 4.5) could be in for a big day. The loser of
this one risks being shutout of the bowls.
MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Vanderbilt 10 - VU has dropped 5 str in Starkville by an avg of 27 ppg, but did win
the last meeting 31-13 (-13) in ‘04 in Nashville. The fav has covered 4 in a row. VU has lost SU the L/2
times they have been an SEC AF (‘06, -1’ at Miss 10-17 and ‘04, -3 at KY 13-14). MSU is 3-6 as a HD
& 5-9 ATS off a bye. VU is in a letdown sit coming off their historic upset of #13 Aub LW with GameDay
broadcasting from their campus and VU is off to its best start S/’43. QB Nickson (59 pass ypg, 55%,
3-1 ratio, 310 rush, 5.1) aggravated a shld’r inj LW (CS) and bkup Adams threw for 153 yds & 2 TD. VU
leads the NCAA in TO margin and held Aub to 4 yd rush in the 2H LW. Despite their 5-0 start, VU is
being outgained by 54 ypg on the yr. MSU RB Dixon (groin inj, 320, 4.5) should be healthier after the
bye. QB Lee made his 1st start in the tm’s respectable loss to LSU and has avg 117 ypg (66%) with a
1-0 ratio while Carroll has avg 132 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio. VU has slight edges on off (#90-99) & D
(#34-39), but a large edge on ST’s (#34-80). VU could clinch its first bowl S/’82 with a win here.
Utah 35 WYOMING 7 - LY WY HC Glenn guaranteed a win and when UT onside kicked while up by 43,
he flipped off Whittingham. UT had a 506-122 yd edge and is 7-2 SU and 10-5 ATS (series). The HT
has covered SEVEN str! WY is 6-3 (0-1 TY) as a HD. LW UT rallied for 11 pts in 1:29 for a 31-28 win
over Oreg St despite being outFD’d 20-18 and outgained 405-337. QB Johnson avg 222 ypg (67%)
with a 10-6 ratio. RB Asiata has 373 yd (5.3) while Mack has 363 (4.7) and three WR’s have more than
20 rec’s. During the wk, WY gave the starting job to Sween with “leeway” in the TO dept. Sween tossed
an int that was ret’d for a TD :15 in & on the yr WY has a -14 TO margin (T-last NCAA) and is 0-5 ATS.
Sween has thrown for 155 yd (54%) with an 0-2 ratio in L/2. RB Moore leads w/582 rush yd (5.3) & two
WR’s tie for the lead with 13 rec (in SIX GMS!). UT is playing to impress poll voters while WY is playing
for their HC’s job as the rest of us wonder who his successor.
TEXAS A&M 34 Kansas St 30 - Last meeting, in ‘05, A&M led 23-8 after 3Q’s, before KSU’s 4Q comeback
fell short by 2. KSU is 3-13 SU (4-9 ATS) on the B12 road being outscored by 11 ppg. A&M is 9-3 SU and
8-4 ATS in their B12 home opener and the HT is 4-1 ATS. A&M lost 56-28 to OkSt but outgained them
by 1 yd and fell to 1-4 ATS. QB’s McGee & Johnson are both not 100% but comb for 239 ypg (59%) with
a 10-5 ratio. KSU’s struggles cont’d LW vs TT as they have given up 37+ pts in 3 str and a rush D that
has been non-existent (all’g 258 ypg, 5.7). QB Freeman is avg 255 ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio. K-St is
on a 2-9 SU & 1-7 ATS run but does have a huge ST edge (#2-100) along with the better off (#27-72) &
D (#87-94). We’re well aware that A&M is 1-2 SU TY at home dropping 5 of the L/6 ATS (0-3 ATS TY) but
LW’s offensive output shows the progress the new off is making.
C MICHIGAN 30 Temple 20 - Only met in ‘06 with CM having a 499-309 yd edge on the road (-20) 42-26.
CM is 11-2 ATS at home and TU is on their 5th RG in 7 wks while CM is off a bye. TU beat Miami 28-10
as a 7 pt AD, as the D forced 4 TO incl 1 that set up a 6 yd TD drive. TU was outFD’d 20-11 and outgained
303-294. QB Stewart, in his 2nd start, improved to 178 yds (48%) with a 3-1 ratio. CM has a huge off edge
(#37-115) but TU does have the D edge (#53-109). Both have played Buff TY. CM held on for a 27-25 SU
win as a 6’ pt HF with 21-18 FD and 360-336 yd edges. TU lost 30-28 as a 6’ pt AD but was outFD’d 24-19
and outgained 449-389. CM is led by QB LeFevour who avg 254 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio and is the top
rusher (318, 4.4). Despite being 3-2 SU, CM is 1-3 ATS being outscored 31-26 and outgained 406-386
with their 2 IA wins by a comb 5 pts.
OHIO ST 38 Purdue 10 - LY OSU traveled to face a 5-0 Purdue tm who was thinking upset but the Bucks
forced a school record 12 punts and finished with a 381-184 yd edge. OSU led 23-0 before PU scored a
TD w/:10 left. Tiller had won 3 in a row ATS vs Tressel prior. OSU is 26-17 as a HF but 0-3 TY. OSU broke
Wisky’s 16 gm home win streak thanks to an 80 yd TD drive directed by Pryor who scored on an 11 yd
run w/1:08 left. As the starter (L/3) Pryor has accounted for 8 of OSU’s 10 TD’s. RB Beanie Wells (385,
7.9) has 100 yds in every gm he’s played TY despite not being 100%. OSU is #21 in pass eff D all’g 155
ypg (58%) with a 7-9 ratio. PU is off a 20-6 home loss to Penn St in which QB Painter was benched in the
4Q after failing to get the Boilers into the EZ for the 3rd consec time vs the Lions. Painter has struggled
(#83 NCAA pass eff) avg 245 ypg (58%) with a 5-5 ratio but Tiller said he will start vs OSU despite backup
Eilliot’s 82 yd TD drive LW. Boilers’ short handed D allows 196 rush ypg (5.0) to rank #104 in the NCAA.
With huge edges all around, OSU bullies the Boilers.
Tcu 35 COLORADO ST 10 - HC Patterson is 4-0 SU & ATS vs CSU and TCU won here 45-14 (-9’) in ‘06. LW
it looked like SDSt was going to make a gm of it (held TCU to 2 early FG’s), but TCU ended with 498-85 yd &
28-4 FD edges in a 41-7 romp. Bkup QB Jackson (Dalton knee, CS) rushed for 131. TCU’s D is phenomenal
all’g just 29.3 ypg rush (#1 NCAA), holding every opp under 75! They now take on a CSU tm that looked
like a diff squad LW behind the power-running of G. Johnson (191 yd) who leads with 491 (5.0). CSU went
up 14-3 after 1Q but UNLV battled back and took a 28-27 lead w/6:05 left. Johnson broke through for a 10
yd TD run w/:09 left. LV tried 5 laterals on the KR before Mosure knocked it down & ran the fmbl back for a
misleading 41-28 final. CSU did have a commanding 510-347 yd edge incl 216 rush yd. QB Farris bounced
bk LW (96 yd vs Cal) and now avg 235 ypg (66%) with a 5-5 ratio. WR Greer had an outstanding gm with
211 rec yd (26.4) and leads with 33 rec (17.3).TCU does have a huge gm vs BYU on deck, so lookahead is
a possibility here, but it’s tough to go with CSU who is just 1-5 S/’99 as a DD conf dog.
MISSOURI 52 Oklahoma St 35 - Last time here (‘04), OSU came back from 17 pts down (biggest comeback
S/‘79) for a 20-17 upset. Gundy is 3-9 SU on the B12 road and MO is 8-3 SU in the series (3 losses by 3
ppg). OSU is 10-24 as an AD and MO is 10-5 as a HF. OkSt is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS after hanging
50+ (4th str gm) on A&M. QB Robinson avg 207 ypg (72%) with a 10-3 ratio. OSU has the NCAA’s #2 rush
off lead by Hunter (708 yds, 7.0). MO also comes in 5-0 (3-1 ATS) after snapping a 15 gm losing streak in
Lincoln (52-17). Heisman hopeful QB Daniel avg 333 ypg (76%) with a 15-1 ratio. He has led 48 drives,
33 for a score, 5 punts & zero 3 & outs! Under Pinkel MO is 14-7-1 ATS vs B12 South and OSU is 12-22-1
ATS on the B12 road. Both off are high octane (MO #2 & OSU #6), but MO has the D edge (#31-63). MO
is in a tough B12 road sandwich but has won 10 str HG’s by at least 14. The last time OSU started 5-0
was in ‘04 before they played a ranked A&M squad and lost by 16 as a fav!
GEORGIA 27 Tennessee 6 - LY UT all’d UGA only 2 FD’s in the 1H & finished with a 411-243 yd edge (RB
Moreno was held to 30 yd) in their 35-14 win. LY UT had a bye the wk prior and Fulmer’s job was on the line.
TY the Dogs are off a bye and playing to avenge the gm that cost them the SEC East and a poss National
Title berth. The last meeting in Athens prod the most pts ever in the series, a 51-33 UT win. The dog has
3 outright upsets the L/4 and the visitor has won 4 of 5 with the avg win by 16 ppg. Richt is 10-2 SU off a
bye and the Vols are 2-4 as an AD. UGA RB Moreno (489, 6.3) suffered an elbow inj vs AL, but is exp to
play, but while TE Chandler is out and starting LB Ellerbe is doubtful (knee). UGA QB Stafford avg 239 ypg
(60%) with a 7-1 ratio with true Fr Green (PS#3) his top target (22, 17.6). UT’s new off has struggled with
QB Crompton (165 ypg, 52%, 2-4 ratio) being benched LW as they barely got past NI (held to 225 ttl yd & 9
FD) and Stephens threw for 156 yds & the gm’s only TD. This is a battle of Top 10 D’s, but UGA has a huge
edge on off (#11-52) plus has huge edges coming off the bye and playing at home with revenge.
USC 38 Arizona St 7 - ASU travels to the Coliseum after suffering their 3rd str defeat and has now dropped
8 of 9 ATS. The ground gm has been the main culprit as ASU avg just 85 ypg (2.9) rush TY while QB
Carpenter cont’s to carry the tm throwing for 270 ypg (67%) with an 8-4 ratio. ASU has also lost 8 str to
USC incl LY on Thanksgiving when they were held to a ssn low 259 yd incl 16 rush (0.5) in a 44-24 romp.
USC ret’d to its winning ways smashing Oreg 44-10 in a gm in which they put up nearly 600 yds ttl off. QB
Sanchez rebounded well from the OSU loss passing for 332 yd & 3 TD but suffered a 4Q knee inj (CS).
While ASU is 6-17-1 as an AD, they did cover their last trip here (+19) as they fell behind 21-0 but rallied
to tie as USC needed a TD w/4:29 left. USC has our #1 D and has surrendered just 223 ypg at home TY
which spells trouble vs an ASU tm that is 1-9 ATS in their 2nd consec RG.
OREGON 42 Ucla 14 - UO is 14-4 as a HF and returns here after being outgained 598-239 yds in their
34 pt loss to USC. Despite the QB issues TY, the off has fared well avg 483 ttl ypg led by the 1-2 punch
of RB’s Johnson & Blount who have comb to rush for 966 yd (6.3) and 15 TD. LY in a gm that featured
as many punts as FD’s (22), UCLA held the once high-powered UO off to just 148 ttl yd in a 16-0 win as
UO was playing its 1st gm after QB Dixon was lost for the yr. UCLA got its 1st conf win under new HC
Neuheisel as they beat Wash St for the 1st time in the Rose Bowl S/’98 holding WSU to just 177 ttl yd.
UCLA has beaten UO just twice S/’00 and the last time here we used UO as a 3H LPS (-8) in a gm that
they led 30-13 before a late TD. While the HT is just 5-11 ATS, UO has its 1st bye of the ssn on deck and
should be too much for a rebuilding UCLA squad here.
MICHIGAN 34 Toledo 13 - First meeting between these 2 which are 54 miles apart. UM is in a B10
sandwich and just 1-9 as a 20+ fav. UT is 1-8 ATS (0-9 SU) when visiting a BCS tm losing by an avg of 27
ppg. The Rockets are just 5-13 as an AD (1-1 TY) and are off a devastating 31-0 loss to Ball St, their 1st
MAC shutout S/’85 & 1st at home S/’78. UT was outgained 482-157 by the Cards and hasn’t scored a TD
in 7Q’s. RB Collins (371, 7.4) ret’d but had just 11 yds while QB Opelt has struggled avg 174 ypg (59%)
with a 7-3 ratio to rank #86 in the NCAA in pass eff. Rockets allow 171 rush ypg (4.1). The Wolves are off
to their worst start S/’67 after their 2H collapse vs Illinois in which they were outgained 501-319 and UM
lost 2 more fmbl’s (T-NCAA worst 11). “Good” Threet was 5-8 for 95 yds & 1 TD as Mich jumped out to a
14-3 lead but “Bad” Threet was 13-27 for 155 the rest of the game. Wolves’ D allows 109 rush ypg (2.7).
UM needs this for bowl elig and the offense gets back on track.
AUBURN 34 Arkansas 10 - The road tm has covered 3 in a row and in their last trip here Ark delivered
another Big Dog win when +15 they upset #2 Auburn 27-10. LY Ark was held to 67 yds rush (220 yds
below ssn avg) but appeared to pull out the win on a TD w/1:36 left but Auburn got a 20 yd FG on the
last play to pull the upset on the road (visitor is 5-1 SU). Tuberville takes on his former OC Petrino, who
nearly took his job in a failed coup in ‘03. Auburn is 5-1 SU & ATS in the series. The dog is 8-3 ATS. Aub is
off a distressing loss to Vandy in which their spread off (#73) was held to just 4 yds rush in the 2H and a
missed xp was the difference in the gm. QB Todd has avg 148 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio with mobile bkup
Burns only seeing spot duty. RB Tate is the top rusher (501, 4.4) and Ark has all’d 208 rush ypg (5.3). Ark
has also struggled in their new off (#74) led by QB Dick (238 ypg, 59%, 5-5 ratio). RB Smith (423, 5.7)
has been a bright spot. Ark’s OL though veteran, featuring Rimington winner Luigs, has struggled to pass
blk and has all’d 21 sks (last in NCAA) while Aub’s D has posted 13 sks. Ark is on an 0-6 ATS run (though
Aub 0-5 run) and faces their 4th consec Top 25 tm and have been outscored by an avg of 46-10 the L/3.
Aub has huge edges on D (#9-90) and ST’s (#18-108) and need a feel-good win, although their struggling
offense makes it tough (4-13 DD fav).
NEVADA 41 New Mexico St 38 - UN leads series 10-1 SU (3-3 ATS). The Wolf Pack has scored 40+pts
(avg 45 ppg) in each of the 3 meetings as WAC foes going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (avg win by 17 ppg). These
two have comb to avg 73 ppg the L/3. LY there were 6 lead changes & UN got a 31 yd TD pass w/1:00 left
for the win, 40-38 (-7). NMSt is just 1-17 SU & 5-13 ATS as an AD under HC Mumme but the lone SU win
was in the Aggies’ last AG vs UTEP (34-33, +7). QB Holbrook avg 280 ypg (67%) with a 10-5 ratio. WR’s
Williams (23 rec, 16.4) & Harris (26 rec, 9.7) have picked up where they left off LY but newcomer Anderson
has been a welcome addition with his big-play abilities resulting in 12 rec (21.3). UN HC Ault is 17-1 SU
& 14-2 ATS as a HF. The Wolf Pack has the edge on off (#14-57), D (#82-111) & ST’s (#105-114). UN’s
off avg 521 ypg led by dual-threat QB Kaepernick who is avg 191 ypg (66%) with a 6-2 ratio & leads with
511 yds rush & 8 TD. He has been causing opposing DC’s fits trying to find a way to slow him down. UN’s
“M&M” WR duo of Mitchell (22 rec, 17.3) & McCoy (21 rec, 7.2) help stretch the field. This is old school
WAC football meaning the last one with the ball wins.
N ILLINOIS 31 Miami, Oh 10 - MU is actually 8-1 SU in their first MAC AG but has lost 3 in a row to NI
(1-2 ATS) and lost their last trip here (‘05, 38-27). In ‘06, NI went ahead by 3 w/7:46 left 4Q & then held
MU twice near midfield winning 28-25 on the road (-13’). The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and off a 13-9 loss to
Tenn as a 16’ pt AD. They were only outgained 225-194 and settled for 3 FG’s of 25 yds or less. NI QB
Nicholson left with a shoulder inj in the 2Q (CS) and the game was tied 3-3 at the half. Bkup QB Grady hit
just 4-10 for 39 yds but led the tm with 47 yd (3.1) rushing. MU is 1-3 ATS and lost 28-10 to Temple as a 7
pt HF. They did have 20-11 FD and 303-294 yd edges but gave up 4 TO’s. MU brought in bkup QB Belton
in the 2H to replace an ineffective Raudabaugh (44%, 65 yds). Belton threw for 178 yds (48%) with an
0-1 ratio leading them to 10 unanswered 3Q pts. NI has the off (#78-109) and the D edges (#42-92) and
ranks higher than Temple in both categories.
BYU 41 New Mexico 13 - BYU is 7-1 as a DD HF. These two have met every yr S/‘51 & LY BYU scored 24 pts
off 5 NM TO’s in a 31-24 win. Mendenhall was the DC at NM from ‘98-‘02 installing the 3-3-5. The visitor has won
6 str ATS and NM is 21-13 (0-1 TY) as an AD and 17-7 ATS in conf AG’s. LW BYU extended its shutout streak
to 11Q’s before all’g an early 4Q TD in what many are calling a “disappointing” 34-14 win over Utah St. Collie
went over 100 yds rec for the 3rd str gm and leads with 38 rec (13.6) while TE Pitta has 35 (14.3). QB Hall is
avg 317 ypg (72%) with a 17-4 ratio and Unga has 455 rush yd (4.6). Cougs D is all’g an unprecedented 11.6
ppg TY. NM is off its 1st shutout in MWC history (& 1st shutout S/’83), beating WY 24-0 with a 350-201 yd edge.
Long said that they will spend TW working on Gruner’s pass gm as he has thrown for 88 ttl yd in his 2 sts (43%)
with an 0-0 ratio. RB Ferguson DNP LW (CS) & Wright finished w/120 yd (8.0). BYU has made it a habit to start
quickly which will force NM to throw and with a 3-10 tm ratio, it could be a long day for the Lobos.
OREGON ST 49 Washington St 10 - The Cougars journey to Corvallis fresh off yet another beatdown as
UCLA held WSU to just 177 ttl yds on 11 FD’s (2-14 3rd down conv). Not much has gone well on either
side of the ball as they are down to their 3rd string QB in Lobbestael (164 ypg, 54%, 4-4 ratio) and own a
D that has all’d 452 ypg vs IA opp’s (outscored by a 48-10 avg). LY WSU QB Brink was int’d 6 times (5 in
the 1H) in his final HG as the Cougs were hammered 52-17. In ‘06, WSU won their 1st game in Corvallis
S/’96 but they have struggled in B2B AG’s dropping 6 of 8 both SU & ATS. The Beavers have been dynamite
at home (414-262 yd edge) TY incl their monumental upset of #1 USC. While they dropped a heartbreaker
to Utah LW (outgained the Utes 405-337), they have HUGE edges vs WSU here in both off (#23-111) and
D (#20-104). Their best ball is also usually played now as over the L2Y, the Beavers have gone 13-2 SU
and 12-3 ATS after their 5th game of the regular ssn.
Arizona 30 STANFORD 23 - The Cardinal return home after playing 4 of 5 away incl LW’s loss to ND
giving us a 3H LPS Winner. Arizona has the NCAA’s #2 D surrendering just 226 ypg after another strong
performance vs the winless Huskies and will look for continued momentum. The visitor has gone 10-2
ATS. In their last trip to Stanford, the Wildcat D held the Cardinal to just 52 ttl yds (-6 rush) marking their
lowest ydg total in school history. However, LY Stanford scored a 4Q TD & recovered a fmbl at their own
22 w/2:00 left to pull out the road victory (+13, 21-20). Despite the Cats success in ‘08, they’ve played
our #111 schedule and have struggled in Oct under HC Stoops going just 3-14 SU in his 5 year tenure.
The Cardinal, on the other hand have played a much tougher sched TY (#5) and have actually won and
covered their L/3 HG’s incl SU wins vs Cal & Oreg St. The Cats beat up a Locker-less Huskies team LW,
SU is off a misleading final vs ND and both have much to prove.
KENT ST 23 Ohio 20 - KSU faces an Ohio tm on its 3rd AG in 4 wks. The last meeting here (‘06) was
played in 33 mph winds and two poor punts into the wind set up OU TD’s, in a gm that cost KSU the East
title. LY on the road KSU dominated more than the 33-25 final leading 27-10 with a 25-16 FD edge. The
Flashes are off a disappointing 2OT loss to rival Akron. KSU had 25-15 FD and 413-301 yd edges but
gave up a 4th down 24 yd TD pass after a flubbed punt to give Akron the lead late 4Q. They were still able
to come back with a late FG to send the game to OT but missed a short FG in the 2nd OT. Despite the
loss KSU covered their 2nd str (+3’). Ohio only trailed WM 11-7 at half but lost 41-20 as a 7 pt AD and was
outgained 503-356. OU had covered 4 str IA gms (incl 2 BCS) losing by a comb 24 pts. OU QB Jackson is
avg 189 ypg (58%) with a 9-7 ratio and RB Harden rush with 339 (5.3). KSU QB Edelman is avg 137 ypg
(53%) with a 7-6 ratio and leads with 487 yds (5.1). Both tms are 1-4 SU but neither is being dominated
by opp’s. They both have suffered several key inj’s and have found ways to lose.
CINCINNATI 23 Rutgers 17 - Rutgers led 17-7 LY at home but Cincy scored 2 TD’s in :19 & went on for
the win. QB Teel passed for 334 yds (58%) but threw 3 int & was sacked twice. Rutgers got to the Cincy
17 but was int’d at the end. Last time here UC won the biggest gm in program history with the 30-11 upset
over #7 Rutgers knocking them from the BCS race as a 4H LPS Winner. Cincy defeated Marshall LW
33-10. After inj’s to the #1 and #2 QB’s, rFr Anderson made his 1st start & threw for 158 yds (62%) with 2
TD’s and ran for another. Rutgers come-from-behind drive was cut short in their 24-17 loss to WV. A team
that came into the season with high hopes on offense has struggled to find the run game, and QB Teel
has had trouble protecting the ball with a 3-7 ratio. The HT is 5-2 ATS and Cincy is 6-2 ATS vs the Knights.
Rutgers has a slight def edge (#47-49) and Cincy has off edge (#54-80), a huge ST’s edge (#10-101) and
is 27-10 S/’02 at home. While RU has struggled TY, they are looking up at Cincy in the Big East standings
which puts them in a favorable position.
TEXAS TECH 48 Nebraska 20 - One of our favorite 5H’s of all-time was in ‘04 as we used TT (-7) and
they ROMPED NU 70-10! Huskers are 4-10 as an AD (8-17 SU on B12 road) and this marks their FIRST
road trip in 6 wks and Lubbock is a tough place with TT 16-9 as a B12 HF (also TT HC, 14-2 SU & 13-3
ATS). TT has been unimpressive in non-conf play but took care of KSU LW 58-28 to remain unbeaten.
QB Harrell is avg 405 ypg (67%) with an 18-3 ratio. WR Crabtree has 38 rec (14.8) & 8 TD. NU has
dropped B2B gms after a 3-0 start and will be on their 3rd leg of their most difficult stretch of ‘08. QB
Ganz is avg 257 ypg (66%) with a 9-5 ratio. NU is ranked #19 in our pass eff def allowing 243 ypg (60%)
with a 5-5 ratio. Both offenses are potent (TT #3 & NU #24), but TT has the D edge (#26-64) the Raiders
have played a soft sked (#107) so far as the Huskers will be their toughest opp to date. Under Leach
TT is 43-10 in Lubbock (23-14 HF) and since this is their only HG in 5 wks look for the Red Raiders to
take care of a Husker team that hasn’t won on the B12 road since ‘06 (1-6-1 ATS AG run).
KANSAS 31 Colorado 17 - CU is 2-8 SU (4-10 ATS run) on the B12 road. LY CU held #15 KU to 31
pts & 183 yds below its ssn avg as they had FD & yd edges in a 19-14 loss at home (+3’). CU is 5-2
SU vs KU with their wins by 16 ppg and losses by 5 ppg. KU is 14-5 as a HF and CU just 3-9 as an
AD. KU beat ISU LW 35-33. It was the 3rd largest come-from-behind victory in school history erasing a
20 pt HT deficit to escape the upset. QB Reesing is avg 343 ypg (70%) with a 14-3 ratio. The Jayhawk
ground gm (only 119 ypg, 3.4.) is still struggling to get on track & now faces a CU rush D all’g 171 ypg
(4.5). LW the Buffs lost to Texas 38-14. QB Hawkins (185 ypg, 59%, 10-4) has struggled the L2W, but
CU has suffered many OL inj’s and have only 2 upperclassmen in the 2-deep! KU rolled B12 opp’s at
home LY with the avg win by 41 pts (+222 ypg), Mangino is 7-3 as a B12 HF and the Jayhawks have
the off (#25-76) & D edges (#41-50). KU needs to take care of business vs the Buffs with four ranked
B12 foes still waiting ahead (#1 OU on deck).
Penn St 27 WISCONSIN 20 - Low scoring series with the teams avg 37 ppg & PSU has scored only 2
FG’s in their L/2 trips to Madison. The HT is 4-0 SU/ATS winning by an avg of 25.5-6.7. LY PSU dominated
at home 38-7 (-6’) with 437 yds. Wisky is the 1st Big Ten team to open the ssn with Mich, OSU and
PSU in a row and after B2B comeback losses are now reduced to playing spoiler. QB Evridge has
struggled in conf play avg 187 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio while being sk’d 6x (0 in 1st 3). RB Hill (512,
4.7) is splitting time with the quicker PS#3 rFr Clay (269, 6.7). UW has all’d big yds in the 2H of the L/3
gms & was 3 Fresno missed FG’s away from losing all 3. PSU is off a 20-6 win at Purdue in which they
outgained the Boilers 422-236. Big Ten pass eff leader QB Clark avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 9-1 ratio.
RB Royster has 659 yds (7.9). Lions lead the league in rush D allowing 80 ypg (2.5) with 17 sk. PSU
has the edges all around and starts a new, negative home streak for the reeling Badgers.
SAN JOSE ST 27 Utah St 10 - SJSt has won 10 of the L/11 but 6 of the L/7 have been decided by
7 pts or less. SJSt is 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS as a HF under HC Tomey & the Spartans are on a 9-3 ATS
run. In ‘06 here, the Aggies led 14-0 (+17) but SJSt got a TD with 3:56 left for the 21-14 win. USU QB
Borel is avg 121 ypg (57%) with a 6-3 ratio & also has 257 yds rushing. His fav target, Nelson has 19
rec (11.3) & 2 TD while RB Turbin has 263 yds (5.2) & 3 TD. USU’s D is ranked #108 in the NCAA all’g
436 ypg. SJSt has the edge on both off (#106-112) & D (#40-99). Spartan QB Reed is avg 163 ypg
(73%) with a 4-2 ratio & also has 4 TD rushing. RB Davis has 326 yd (5.5) while WR has Richmond
has 28 rec (11.4). SJSt’s D is ranked #22 (NCAA) all’g 287 ypg. The Spartans’ DL has shown a spike
in production TY as the unit has accounted for 10 sacks (tm has 15, T-#9 NCAA) thru 5 gms led by C
Ihenacho who has 5, matching his ttl from all of LY. SJSU’s entire DL unit had 11 sks in ‘07. Both teams
have WAC AG’s on deck with SJSt facing NMSt & USU meeting Nevada.
Tulsa 48 SMU 38 - Tulsa is 5-10 SU vs SMU & the HT has won 6 str with SMU on a 4-0 ATS run. LY
was a tough loss for SMU as they led 23-22 and had the ball at the Tulsa 1 but were SOD. Tulsa got a
51 yd TD pass with :43 left for the win. SMU won 34-24 (+6’) in the last meeting in Dallas in ‘06. Tulsa
is off a 63-28 win over Rice that was actually close in the 1H. TU only led 21-14 at the half, but turned
it on after the break. Tulsa rushed for a ssn high 386 yds (7.3) and outgained Rice 577-453. Tulsa’s
maligned D (#108) forced 4 TO’s and produced 2 sks. SMU is off a 31-17 loss to UCF in which they
outgained the Knights 376-280. The SMU D (#117) actually had its best performance to date, but TO’s
and ST’s mistakes made it hard to keep UCF out of the EZ. True Fr QB Mitchell threw for 351 yds but
also 3 int, bringing his ratio to 13-15 on the ssn. TU HC Graham is 2-4 as a DD conf fav and SMU has
won the L/6 SU (5-1 ATS) at home in the series. Despite a huge off edge for Tulsa (#5-101), look for
SMU to make it a closer game than many would predict.
Boise St 31 SOUTHERN MISS 21 - LY SM all’d a ssn high 506 yds to Boise in a 38-16 loss on ESPN.
TY Boise travels to the green grass and the humidity of the South and the Broncos are just 6-10 as an
AF (3-6 under Petersen). SM is 1-0 as a HD in FIVE yrs. Boise did go into Fresno and win by 13 (-3) LY
(another hostile environment). The #15 ranked Broncos got extra rest as they beat LA Tech 38-3 last
Wed. QB Moore was 20-28 for 325 yds and 2 TD and is now completing 72% of his passes with a 7-2
ratio on the ssn. SM is coming off a 2OT home loss to UTEP, 40-37, and has lost 2 straight HG’s. SM
outgained UTEP 541-382, as RB Fletcher became the school’s all-time leading rusher with a career
high 260 yd, but needed a last second FG to force OT. Boise has the adv on off (#38-55) and on D
(#37-80), but SM has played the tougher sked (#51-99). SM HC Fedora is 3-0 ATS vs non-conf in his
1st yr and expect the prideful Golden Eagles to keep this relatively close.
UTEP 37 Tulane 23 - LY TU jumped out to a 17-0 lead & cruised to a 34-19 win outgaining UTEP 485-
412. This is the 4th meeting as each gm has been decided by 14+ with the winner scoring 34+. UTEP
is 2-1 in the series and the ATS winner has covered by DD each time. Tulane is 11-22-1 ATS in CUSA
play. UTEP is 3-12 as a fav in CUSA, 2-9 under Price. UTEP is coming off 2 consec conf SU/ATS wins
incl at SM LW 40-37 in 2OT. QB Vittatoe threw 4 TD in the win and has a 7-1 (9-4 overall) ratio the L/2.
UTEP was outgained 541-382, but played a “bend but don’t break” D in the 2H forcing 3 RZ FG’s by
the Eagles. Tulane is coming off a shocking 44-13 loss to previously winless Army. TU turned the ball
over 4x’s and 2 of those (1 FR, 1 IR) went to the house for Army scores. TU was playing catch-up the
whole gm and outgained Army 489-334, but never got closer than 10 pts. QB Moore threw 2 picks and
only has a 6-6 ratio on the ssn. Tulane travels to the Sun Bowl off a tough loss so expect UTEP to keep
their CUSA momentum going.
Air Force 24 SAN DIEGO ST 17 - LY AF had 3 plyrs rush for 100+ yd (tm ssn-high 569 yd rush) and
these 2 comb for 1,176 yd ttl off. SDSt is 7-4 ATS and the fav is 5-10 ATS in the series. SDSt is 9-15
as a HD (1st TY) but 10-3 ATS in conf HG. This is their Skyshow which routinely draws the season's
largest home crowd. In ‘06 SDSt (+13’) won outright, 19-12 but got a FG w/:02 left & added a TD picking
up a lateral on the KO. SDSt was thrashed 41-7 LW with TCU holding HUGE edges (498-95 yd, 28-4
FD, SDSt -13 yds rush!). QB Lindley went out late 1Q (CS) and bkup JC Westling hit 6-17 for 61 yd
with SDSt getting just 2 FD’s (55 ttl yds) after Lindley left. AF is off a very disappointing loss to Navy as
poor ST’s play did them in. AF had 411-244 yd & 20-13 FD edges but could not overcome 2 blk’d P for
TD’s. The Falcons bounce back well though, as they are 5-1 ATS the gm after Navy. SDSt has taken on
some below avg rush tms and all’d 245 ypg (4.9). Not counting the UT gm (UT 2-1 yd edge, only 3 pt
loss), AF avg 325 ypg rush (4.9). Five of the L/7 in series have been upsets incl 2 as DD’s.
FRESNO ST 51 Idaho 13 - Fresno leads 6-4 but has won the L/5 by an avg of 36-14 (3-0 ATS). FSU is
3-0 SU & ATS S/’05 in the 3 gms as WAC foes. Since joining the WAC in ‘05, UI is 2-20 SU & 8-13-1 ATS
as an AD & the Vandals are in a 1-13 ATS slump. UI QB Enderle is avg 175 ypg (53%) with a 9-7 ratio
while TE/WR Williams has 36 rec (13.9) & has more than 3x as many catches as the next rec (11). UI’s D
is #119 in the NCAA all’g 504 ypg & has just 2 sks (last in the NCAA). FSU’s goal for an outright WAC Title
took a hit LW with a home loss to Hawaii (32-29 in OT, -22’) as TO’s & missed FG’s loomed large for the
Bulldogs. FSU entered LW tied for #5 in the NCAA with only 4 TO’s lost but had 6 vs UH & K Goessling
missed a pair of FG’s (one with :43 to play, another in OT) that proved costly. FSU is 6-2 SU but only
2-6 ATS as a HF. The Bulldogs have the edge here on off (#31-117), def (#84-119) & ST’s (#41-96). QB
Brandstater avg 222 ypg (61%) with an 8-5 ratio but did have 3 int LW. RB Mathews has 468 yds (5.6) &
4 TD while TE Pascoe has 20 rec (9.0). FSU gets back on track before their bye.
Ball St 37 WKU 13 - LY WK had a 411-363 yd edge but lost 35-12 in a gm much closer than the final.
BSU is 5-1 as an AF but hasn’t been a DD AF S/’92. This is only the 2nd IA school to visit WK and they
nearly upset Troy with a 416-363 yd edge in a 21-17 loss. BSU is off its first shutout S/’00 with 31-0
win over Tol and is 6-0 for 1st time S/’65 and ranked for the 1st time ever. They held Toledo to 14 yds
rush. QB Davis avg 277 ypg (69%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis has 802 yd (5.6). WK is off its 27-13
loss (closest loss to a IA school) to Virg Tech being outgained only 293-243 but outFD’d 19-8. They did
outgain VT 147-118 in the 2H and outscored them 10-7. WK QB Black is avg 92 ypg (56%) with a 1-0
ratio. RB Rainey has 183 yds (6.5) and WR Cooper has 10 rec (15.1). This is BSU’s (#29 off, #61 def)
4th RG in 5 wks and WK’s (#116 off, #120 def) 2nd HG out of 7.
ARKANSAS ST 30 Ulm 23 - The HT is 4-1 SU with the avg win by 7 ppg. LY ULM was at home (+2’)
and down 13-0 early 2Q before scoring 30 unanswered pts for their largest MOV. The underdog has
covered EIGHT in a row with SIX outright upsets! ULM is 14-6 ATS on the road but ASU is 15-3 SU at
home. ULM is off a 44-35 loss vs ULL being outgained 728-383 (556-241 rush). ULM QB Lancaster
avg 167 ypg (58%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Goodin has 313 yds (5.0) and WR McNeal has 18 rec (12.0).
ASU is off of a bye after losing 29-17 to Mem putting up 228 1H yds but only 124 in 2H. QB Leonard
avg 222 ypg (55%) with a 10-2 ratio. RB Lawson has 447 yds (8.6). WR Johnson has 11 rec (17.1).
You've got to respect the series history and take the dog.
Middle Tennessee 16 FIU 9 - The HT is 3-0 SU (FIU 2-1 ATS) as LY MT held FIU to just 145 ttl yds
and MT scored 47 in the 1st HALF! FIU rallied in the 2H to win 35-31 in their 1st meeting here in Miami
in ‘05. FIU is off their 2nd consec win (1st time since end of ‘05 ssn) beating N Texas 42-10 despite
being outgained 428-347 and outFD’d 22-13. They were down 13-0 and being outgained 160-14 in
1Q vs Toledo before putting up 35 pts (3 TD came on 4th down). FIU QB McCall avg 101 ypg (48%)
with 5-5 ratio and WR Hilton has 8 rec (35.5). MT is 5-2 as an AF. They are off their 14-13 win over
FAU snapping a 4 gm conf losing streak. Craddock threw a 32 yd Hail Mary on 4&9 as time expired
for the win. Craddock avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 7-3 ratio and WR Beyah has 18 rec (22.9). MT stops
the Panthers' modest win streak.
Louisiana-Lft 48 NORTH TEXAS 27 - Nine of the L/10 in the series have been decided by 9 or more pts.
ULL is 4-8 SU vs NT, its worst record vs any SBC tm. ULL is off a 44-35 win over ULM outgaining them
728-383 (556-241 rush) both school records. Fenroy rushed for school rec 297 yds. QB Desormeaux
avg 172 ypg (61%) with a 3-4 ratio and Fenroy has 750 yds (8.3). LY, NT rFr QB Vizza made his 1st start
& threw for 383 yds on 57 att’s but suffered 3 int in the 38-29 road loss (+8) and NT had a 527-414 yd
edge. NT is 7-1 ATS in the series (1 pt loss LY) and is off a 42-10 loss to FIU. Vizza avg 204 ypg (63%)
with a 4-6 ratio. WR Fitzgerald has 41 rec (9.7). This is ULL’s 4th AG in 5 wks. They have our #16 off
avg 331 rush ypg (7.6). NT has the #118 D but has played the #14 toughest sked. They are giving up
just 160 rush ypg (4.5). SBC visiting tms are 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS so far TY.
Sunday, October 12th
Louisiana Tech at HAWAII - UH leads the series 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS and the HT is 5-1 ATS. UH is 9-1
SU & 6-4 ATS in WAC HG’s. The Warriors had their 9 gm home win streak snapped 2 wks ago but UH
is coming off its 1st ever win over a ranked tm foll a 32-29 OT win at #22 Fresno. Since ‘04, UH 15-10
ATS as a HF while LT is 3-22 SU & 5-20 ATS as an AD. In the L/3Y, LT is just 1-14 SU (3-12 ATS) as
an AD. UH has the edge on off (#87-104) & D (#75-97) but LT has a huge edge on ST (#5-112). UH is
#116 in the NCAA in TO margin but won the TO battle 6-1 LW. UH has a short week with a Fri night gm
at Boise on deck while LT hosts Idaho next.<!-- / message -->
This is the 25th season of our System Section & it has been a consistent winner. Each week we
release a super system which pertains to that week's games. Here is an NFL Week 6 System:
Play on a winless 0-4 or worse team that is a dog after its bye.
1991-2007: 17-2 89%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: ST LOUIS
KEY SELECTIONS
4* HOUSTON over Miami - This is 3rd year in a row these teams will square off & the dog has covered
the L/2. HOU beat MIA 22-19 LY but failed to cover as a 5 pt HF. MIA lost QB Green to a knee to the
head as he tried to block on a WR end around & they were inspired to a 16-7 lead before HOU hit a
54 yd FG at the half. HOU got past MIA’s emotion with three 50+ yd FG’s including a 57 yarder to win
as they had a 352-285 yd edge. MIA is 5-2-1 ATS away vs an AFC foe. HOU is 5-2 ATS as a HF. MIA
was in a solid situation LW off a bye catching a SD team in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks going cross
country. MIA rolled out the Wildcat offense again (10 direct snaps 48 yds 1 TD) & RB Brown had another
good game with 125 yds rushing (5.2). MIA’s #8 defense was the key though as they held Tomlinson to
35 yds rushing (2.9) and kept Rivers off balance with 159 yds passing (46%) with a 1-0 ratio. MIA held
SD to just 3 of 12 on 3rd Dns with a spec tms fumble in the 3Q getting SD back into the game. HOU
started Rosenfels LW as Schaub (stomach virus) was pulled at the last minute. HOU exploited IND’s
weakness on the DL with 32 rush att’s (4.9) keeping Manning off the field & minus Addai’s 153 yd run
held IND to 64 yds (3.0). MIA now has to go on the road vs a HOU team that outplayed IND LW & while
the Dolphins are better than LY we’ll side with a home team that is angry & deserving of a win.
FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Miami 13
3*SEATTLE over Green Bay - Including the playoffs, this is the 4th game in as many years with the
home team going 3-0 SU & ATS winning by a 33-20 margin. LY in the div playoffs SEA jumped out to a
14-0 lead after a pair of RB Grant fumbles. GB then outscored SEA 28-3 thru the rest of the 1H & went
66 yds in 6 plays in the 3Q to make it 35-17. SEA hit a 27 yd FG & GB had a 1 yd TD run as Grant rushed
for 201 yds (7.4) after his 2 fumbles. SEA was in a poor spot LW as they were off a bye & playing in the
EST where they always struggle. SEA was hoping the return of WR’s Branch & Engram would spark
the offense but they were outFD 21-10 & outgained 431-147 when they pulled Hasselbeck after going
down 37-6 late in the 3Q. SEA was quickly taken out of its gameplan & RB Jones who rushed for 134
ypg (5.6) vs SF & STL was reduced to a pass blocker. GB’s defensive injuries caught up to them LW
as they lost #1 DT ******* to IR, LB Hawk (groin) was ineffective & they were playing their #3 SS in a
beat up secondary. Rodgers had a good game overall (313 yds 68% 3-1) but he was clearly in pain &
now faces a SEA defense that is known for excessive blitzes. SEA is better than LW’s results & look for
them to go to the ground vs a GB team that, minus the DET game is allowing 190 ypg rushing (5.2).
FORECAST: SEATTLE 31 Green Bay 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* St Louis (+) over WASHINGTON - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & the fav is 2-0 ATS. The
technical matchups all side with WAS here as STL is 5-13-1 ATS as an AD, 12-25-1 ATS on grass &
are on an 0-7 ATS streak vs a WAS team on a 7-1 ATS run. STL has the #30 & #31 units (-3 TO’s) vs
WAS #6 & #13 units (+5 TO’s). STL improved the morale significantly by dumping Linehan over the bye
& replaced him with a discipline oriented defensive coach in former NO HC Jim Haslett. Haslett’s 1st
act was to reinstate Bulger as the starting QB & tighten up the intensity in practices. He also directed
OC Saunders to trim the 700 page playbook & feature RB Jackson (110 yds 4.6 vs BUF) & WR Holt
(15 rec 12.5) with more quick drops to help out an OL that has allowed 13 sacks (25th). LY STL was in
a similar situation being 0-8 after their bye & facing a NO team off 4 straight wins. STL won the game
37-29 as 10’ pt dogs & had a 409-299 yd edge. WAS’s defense rallied together LW as they missed 4
def starters & minus the 1Q outgained PHI 365-133. WAS is off 2 upset win vs DAL & PHI & are now
hearing about how they are an elite team in the NFC. STL is better than their record & desperate team
needing a win & getting generous points so we’ll side with them as the Ugly Dog which is now 20-9
(69%). FORECAST: St Louis 27 (+) WASHINGTON 31
2* ARIZONA (+) over Dallas - Jerry Jones takes this southwestern rival seriously as DAL is 3-1 SU
& 4-0 ATS vs ARZ since they left the NFC East. DAL is on a 2-7 ATS run. ARZ is 7-3 ATS at home. This
game features DAL #4 & #14 units (-4 TO’s) vs ARZ #5 & #12 units (+1 TO’s). ARZ doesn’t expect WR
Boldin (sinus fracture) to return until after the bye week. ARZ rebounded from their embarrassing road
loss to NYJ by stopping BUF cold with a 41-17 win. They KO’d QB Edwards (concussion) and then kept
an unprepared Losman off balance all day as they converted 4 TO’s into 17 pts. ARZ was in complete
control all day as they had 28-13 FD & 12:22 TOP edges holding RB Lynch to 55 yds (4.2) rushing. DAL
struggled to put CIN away & were a failed 2 pt conversion by CIN from being tied late in the 4Q. Romo
only had 176 yds passing (61%) with a 3-1 ratio but they rediscovered their run game with a 198 (5.2) to
61 (2.7) rush edge. Despite a roster “stocked with Pro Bowlers” the Cowboys really haven’t displayed a
killer instinct this year. They historically had a home edge with a solid fan following but ARZ’s new stadium
& recent success has taken that away. Although the loss of Boldin is a significant blow the defense has
picked up the slack. Look for Safeties Wilson & Rolle to help shut down the intermediate passing game
& provide run support in a higher scoring game. FORECAST: ARIZONA 28 (+) Dallas 27
OTHER GAMES
NEW ORLEANS 30 Oakland 20 - NO is off LW’s MNF game vs MIN & lost 1st RD DC Ellis for 4 wks
before the game. The Raiders return from their bye week (0-5 ATS) with former Idaho HC Tom Cable
(11-25 SU & 17-23 ATS) who is an OL coach by trade, taking over as Al Davis’ figurehead. Former ATL
OC Greg Knapp will call the offense & Rob Ryan remains the DC. Interim rookie HC’s are 4-12-1 ATS
in their 1st game S/’89. This will be Russell’s 1st start in a dome where OAK is 0-6 ATS. NO is 2-6 ATS
vs the AFC. Brees is 7-1 ATS vs OAK from his days with SD avg 191 ypg (64%) with a 13-4 ratio & he
gives NO a massive edge here. Brees is the hottest QB in the NFL prior to MNF avg 336 ypg (72%)
with an 8-4 ratio & getting RB Deuce back vs SF gives the offense the power aspect it needed. OAK
should have a healthier McFadden (turf toe) & expect to get Fargas who is their best pass protector
back. NO is vulnerable vs the run (#19) & pass (#29) & are a beat up team overall. Firing Kiffin was a
huge mistake as the roster believed in him & look for NO to jump out to a fast start, take Russell out of
his comfort zone & make him pass though NO will give up some big yards here.
INDIANAPOLIS 17 Baltimore 14 - Including playoffs this is the 5th meeting in as many years & the Colts
are 4-0 SU & ATS. LY IND beat an injury depleted BAL team off an emotional MNF loss to NE 44-20 on
SNF as a 9 pt AF. BAL was without Rolle & McAllister & IND jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the 2Q & was up
44-7 in the 3Q. BAL switched to Troy Smith & IND allowed 13 pts in garbage time. IND had a 334-243 yd
edge & was +5 in TO’s. IND is 1-4 ATS as a HF. BAL is 1-8 SU & ATS on the road. Manning has done well
vs BAL in the reg season avg 259 ypg (67%) with an 8-1 ratio. BAL gets a break here after facing 2 of the
most physical teams in the NFL in PIT & TEN. IND has some very basic Football 101 problems as they only
avg 68 ypg (3.6) running the ball (#32) & are allowing 189 ypg (4.9) (#32) which plays into BAL’s strengths
as they are 4th rushing the ball (154 ypg 3.8) & 1st stopping the run (64 ypg 2.8). BAL played a very good
game vs TEN LW & thru the 1st 3Q had 18-8 FD & 231-67 yd edges before letting a 10-3 lead slip thru their
fingers. IND was very lucky to beat HOU LW as Rosenfels fumbled the ball twice in the final 3:54 which the
Colts converted into 14 pts for the win. BAL is utilizing Flacco similar to how PIT utilized Roethlisberger as
a rookie & with both of IND’s wins coming vs teams that self destructed late in the game we’ll side with an
angry BAL team that is executing the basic fundamentals very well & getting points.
NY JETS 30 Cincinnati 27 - The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 LY as a 6.5 pt HF. The Jets blew a 23-10 lead
with 11:15 left in the 3Q as Palmer led the team on 76 & 57 yd TD drives to take a 24-23 lead. CIN then turned
2 TO’s into 14 pts (38-23) & with :32 left they gave up a 32 yd pass (2pt conv). CIN is in a poor spot as this
is the 3rd road game in 4 games & get a Jets team that is 6-0 ATS after a bye. NYJ are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 6
or more. LY after 5 games CIN was being outgained an avg 393-367 losing by an avg of 31-25. TY they are
being outgained 339-239 & are losing by an avg 24-15. They are playing with a talented but wounded QB &
have nothing to offer on the ground being outrushed 171 (4.5) to 78 (3.3) TY.
LY after 4 games the Jets were1-3 being outgained 366-283 & losing by an avg 26-18. TY they have been outgained 341-308 with a 29-29
scoring margin & the yardage is off due to the short fields the team got vs ARZ. LY after 4 starts Favre avg’d
301 ypg (66%) with an 8-2 ratio & 7.1 ypa. TY he’s avg 233 ypg (70%) with a 12-4 ratio & 7.5 ypa & is coming
off one of his career best games. Palmer has done well in his L2 starts vs NYG & DAL & the team played here
just 3 weeks ago but the Jets don’t have the same fan fervor the Giants do. We’ll side with an increasingly
frustrated road team as long as Palmer starts vs the weakest defense (21) he’s played so far.
TAMPA BAY 16 Carolina 13 - CAR is 7-3 ATS vs TB & while they beat TB 31-23 in the season finale LY as
a 3 pt AF the Bucs were resting everyone they could to prepare for their Wildcard game. Both are in positive
technical spots as CAR is 6-0-1 ATS as a div AD &TB is 5-1-1 ATS as a div favorite. CAR is off a pair of easy
wins vs a pair of bottom tier teams as they mauled KC 34-0 & had 17-5 FD & 380-77 yd edges thru the 1st
3Q of the game but AD’s off a shutout win are 5-14-2 ATS since 1998. The stalwarts of the CAR offense
seems to be in gear again as Delhomme (236 yds 64% 2-1 LW) is throwing deep to Steve Smith (6 rec, 16.0)
with RB Williams (123, 6.3) keeping the pass rush honest. The CAR OL was without both starting OT’s LW
& while KC couldn’t exploit that TB will if they don’t return. TB returns from a trip to DEN where QB Griese
was KO’d with a shoulder inj & they went back to Garcia who had fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.
TB is a team that can deliver superior line play on both sides of the ball as minus the CHI game they have
rushed for 157 yds (5.6) with just 7 sacks. The DL gets credit for holding opponents to 100 ypg (3.7) rushing
with 11 sacks. CAR has the momentum off their 2 game home stand & TB is in a bit of a fix as while Garcia
gives them a good chance of winning he doesn’t fit the 2008 TB offense as he freelances too much. We’ll
call this at the line for now & see what CAR’s OL & TB’s injury situations are this week.
MINNESOTA 31 Detroit 17 - MIN is off a potential shootout vs NO & faces a DET team that came out flat
after their bye vs CHI. The fav is 4-1-1 ATS & MIN beat DET 42-10 as a 4 pt HF LY. MIN had a 35-10 lead at
the half & finished with 29-14 FD & 443-254 yd edges & they dominated with a 216 (5.5) - 23 (3.3) rushing
edge on the ground. DET was in a good spot at home LW catching a CHI team on a slightly short week
that was w/o susp DT Harris, its #1WR & the secondary was very beat up also. However, they still have
problems with a slow start as they went 3 & out on 4 of their first 5 drives with a fumble & were outgained
353-94 thru the 1st 3Q. DET has been outrushed 180 (4.4) to 72 (5.0) & the #28 pass defense is worse
than its rankings allowing 253 ypg (68%) with an 8-0 ratio (122.2 QBR) & a whopping 9.4 ypa. While MIN
has its own set of problems at QB they are solid in the trenches outrushing foes 141 (4.7) to 72 (2.9) prior
to MNF. MIN’s high priced DL gets a good matchup vs a DET OL that is 29th allowing 16 sacks. Kitna is
1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS vs MIN & is only avg 256 ypg (66%) with a 4-8 ratio. He was pulled early in the 2H
for Dan Orlovsky & at 0-4 a QB change could be coming. There is no line due to the MNF game but MIN’s
strengths matchup very well vs the DET weaknesses & we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the road team.
Chicago 20 ATLANTA 10 - This is a bit of a flat spot for CHI who are off an SNF game vs IND, a pair
of blown 4Q leads vs CAR & TB, a SNF game vs PHI & a division road game with DET & has a HG vs
MIN on deck. ATL has a bye on deck & is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS before it. CHI is 4-1-1 ATS as a non-div AF.
The Bears mauled a bad DET team LW as they were up 17-0 at the half with a 12-5 FD, 251-67 yd edge
with a 2-1 TOP edge. Orton had a great day passing for 334 yds (71%) with a 2-0 ratio to make up for
a tough game by Forte who only had 36 yds (2.4) on the ground. ATL had a good matchup LW, getting
points vs a beat up GB team with a wounded Rodgers & depleted defense. At the half ATL had 13-5 FD
& 240-123 yd edges and while Ryan had a very good 1H (154 yds 72% 2-0) he only threw 8 pass att’s
in the 2H as ATL tried to grind out the clock. ATL returns home where they have notched a 426-305 yd
edge but that was vs DET’s #32 & KC’s #30 defenses. Versus 2 decent defenses (TB #16 & CAR #4)
ATL has been outgained 356-251 being outscored 24-9 in both games. CHI should get DT Harris & WR
Lloyd (15 rec 16.6) back here & have faced a much tougher schedule & should get the win.
Jacksonville 21 DENVER 20 - This is a tough spot for JAX who are coming off a SNF game vs PIT &
now has to travel from sea level to DEN (17% less oxygen) on a short week. Teams are 6-22 ATS after
facing PIT. DEN remembers their 23-14 loss well as a 3.5 pt HF LY which wasn’t as close as the final
score indicated. JAX opened the game with an 18 play 80 yd drive that took up 11:44. In the 1H JAX had
a 13-4 FD edge & was up 20-7 after converting a muffed KR by DEN to start the 3Q into a FG. DEN was
SOD at the JAX 3, SOD on 4&5 & int’d at the DEN 35 after the 2:00 warning. DEN is 3-12 ATS as a HF
while JAX is 15-5-1 ATS as an AD. JAX OL issues & lack of talent at WR really hampered the offense in
the first 2 games as they were outrushed 107 (3.7) to 66 (3.0). In the L2 games they settled into their new
OL & vs the #24 & #19 defenses they had a 188 (5.1) to 97 (4.6) yd edge. JAX got WR Porter back vs
HOU & C Meester may return here. They now take on DEN’s #30 defense which is allowing 134 ypg (5.2)
rushing. JAX’s offense is slowly taking shape & their defense is better than their #18 ranking. JAX is 2-2
pending SNF & with TEN (5-0) in the division they have to look at this game with Wildcard implications.
DEN is up on the AFC West thanks to 2 bad official’s calls (SD & NO) & with a MNF road game vs NE
on deck this is a flat spot for a young team & we’ll side for the road team here.
Philadelphia 27 SAN FRANCISCO 20 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Eagles going 2-0
SU & ATS with an avg score of 40-14 with a 499-273 yd edge. This is the 1st WC game for PHI since
the last meeting vs SF in 2006. PHI is 13-3 ATS on the road after a SU home loss but 2-7 ATS before
a bye under Reid. PHI finds themselves 2-3 & 4th in the NFC East standings after blowing a 14-0 lead
to start the game vs WAS. Westbrook was able start the game but was ineffective with 18 touches (4.7)
due to a chest injury. Thru the final 3Q PHI was outFD 21-5 & outgained 365-121 as WAS ran 75 total
plays vs PHI’s 47. While PHI has struggled in div play they have outFD non-div foes 21-12 & outgained
them 374-201 allowing just 49 ypg (2.5) rushing. NE used a very basic gameplan LW vs SF as they
stuck to the run & wore out the defense with 43 rush att’s (3.3) keeping the defense on the field for
39:52. SF kept it close until the 4Q but NE basically posted a 2-1 edge in FD’s, yards & TOP. PHI has a
great matchup with a defense that is #1 in sacks by (18) vs a SF OL that is #32 in sacks allowed (20).
SF is a much better team that 2007’s version but we’ll side with a road team that has the #9 & #6 units
(+3 TO) that travels very well vs a SF team with the #21 & #22 units (-3 TO’s).
New England at SAN DIEGO - The Patriots are staying at San Jose St instead of enduring a roundtrip
to the East. This is the 5th meeting in 4 years & the road team has covered 3 of 4. SD has legit revenge
here as LY the Patriots beat SD 38-14 in Wk 2 as a 3.5 pt HF on SNF as the Spygate scandal just
started. NE then knocked SD out of the playoffs with a 21-12 win as a 14 pt HF. SD was in very bad
shape as QB Rivers played on a torn ACL, Gates had a dislocated toe & Tomlinson left after 2 snaps
due to a knee sprain in a game played in 9° windchill. The Chargers were caught looking ahead LW &
lost to MIA 17-10 as they only ran 49 offensive plays. NE played to its depth at RB & wore out SF LW
for a 30-21 win. Can SD rebound or will NE overcome the road logistics.
NY Giants at CLEVELAND - This is the 1st MNF game for CLE since Wk 14 of 2003. These teams
met in the 2nd preseason game & the Browns 2008 troubles started there as the Giants blasted QB
Anderson & gave him a concussion. Anderson would miss the rest of preseason & the CLE offense
would suffer as combined with other injuries there was no cohesion. CLE is off a tough win vs CIN &
OC Chudzinski noted during the bye that they would alter the offense to play to the strengths of their
run. The Giants dismantled SEA 44-6 LW in a great spot but their only road game was in STL who lacks
anything resembling the crowd edge CLE brings here
Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we select the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night
& list them. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3* Totals are 11-4 73%!
Here are this week's plays:
3* Bengals/Jets Over 45'
3* Ravens/Colts Under 39
3* Panthers/Bucs Under 36'
2*Packers/Seahawks Over 47
2* Cowboys/Cardinals Over 48'
<!-- / message -->
release a super system which pertains to that week's games. Here is an NFL Week 6 System:
Play on a winless 0-4 or worse team that is a dog after its bye.
1991-2007: 17-2 89%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: ST LOUIS
KEY SELECTIONS
4* HOUSTON over Miami - This is 3rd year in a row these teams will square off & the dog has covered
the L/2. HOU beat MIA 22-19 LY but failed to cover as a 5 pt HF. MIA lost QB Green to a knee to the
head as he tried to block on a WR end around & they were inspired to a 16-7 lead before HOU hit a
54 yd FG at the half. HOU got past MIA’s emotion with three 50+ yd FG’s including a 57 yarder to win
as they had a 352-285 yd edge. MIA is 5-2-1 ATS away vs an AFC foe. HOU is 5-2 ATS as a HF. MIA
was in a solid situation LW off a bye catching a SD team in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks going cross
country. MIA rolled out the Wildcat offense again (10 direct snaps 48 yds 1 TD) & RB Brown had another
good game with 125 yds rushing (5.2). MIA’s #8 defense was the key though as they held Tomlinson to
35 yds rushing (2.9) and kept Rivers off balance with 159 yds passing (46%) with a 1-0 ratio. MIA held
SD to just 3 of 12 on 3rd Dns with a spec tms fumble in the 3Q getting SD back into the game. HOU
started Rosenfels LW as Schaub (stomach virus) was pulled at the last minute. HOU exploited IND’s
weakness on the DL with 32 rush att’s (4.9) keeping Manning off the field & minus Addai’s 153 yd run
held IND to 64 yds (3.0). MIA now has to go on the road vs a HOU team that outplayed IND LW & while
the Dolphins are better than LY we’ll side with a home team that is angry & deserving of a win.
FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Miami 13
3*SEATTLE over Green Bay - Including the playoffs, this is the 4th game in as many years with the
home team going 3-0 SU & ATS winning by a 33-20 margin. LY in the div playoffs SEA jumped out to a
14-0 lead after a pair of RB Grant fumbles. GB then outscored SEA 28-3 thru the rest of the 1H & went
66 yds in 6 plays in the 3Q to make it 35-17. SEA hit a 27 yd FG & GB had a 1 yd TD run as Grant rushed
for 201 yds (7.4) after his 2 fumbles. SEA was in a poor spot LW as they were off a bye & playing in the
EST where they always struggle. SEA was hoping the return of WR’s Branch & Engram would spark
the offense but they were outFD 21-10 & outgained 431-147 when they pulled Hasselbeck after going
down 37-6 late in the 3Q. SEA was quickly taken out of its gameplan & RB Jones who rushed for 134
ypg (5.6) vs SF & STL was reduced to a pass blocker. GB’s defensive injuries caught up to them LW
as they lost #1 DT ******* to IR, LB Hawk (groin) was ineffective & they were playing their #3 SS in a
beat up secondary. Rodgers had a good game overall (313 yds 68% 3-1) but he was clearly in pain &
now faces a SEA defense that is known for excessive blitzes. SEA is better than LW’s results & look for
them to go to the ground vs a GB team that, minus the DET game is allowing 190 ypg rushing (5.2).
FORECAST: SEATTLE 31 Green Bay 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* St Louis (+) over WASHINGTON - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & the fav is 2-0 ATS. The
technical matchups all side with WAS here as STL is 5-13-1 ATS as an AD, 12-25-1 ATS on grass &
are on an 0-7 ATS streak vs a WAS team on a 7-1 ATS run. STL has the #30 & #31 units (-3 TO’s) vs
WAS #6 & #13 units (+5 TO’s). STL improved the morale significantly by dumping Linehan over the bye
& replaced him with a discipline oriented defensive coach in former NO HC Jim Haslett. Haslett’s 1st
act was to reinstate Bulger as the starting QB & tighten up the intensity in practices. He also directed
OC Saunders to trim the 700 page playbook & feature RB Jackson (110 yds 4.6 vs BUF) & WR Holt
(15 rec 12.5) with more quick drops to help out an OL that has allowed 13 sacks (25th). LY STL was in
a similar situation being 0-8 after their bye & facing a NO team off 4 straight wins. STL won the game
37-29 as 10’ pt dogs & had a 409-299 yd edge. WAS’s defense rallied together LW as they missed 4
def starters & minus the 1Q outgained PHI 365-133. WAS is off 2 upset win vs DAL & PHI & are now
hearing about how they are an elite team in the NFC. STL is better than their record & desperate team
needing a win & getting generous points so we’ll side with them as the Ugly Dog which is now 20-9
(69%). FORECAST: St Louis 27 (+) WASHINGTON 31
2* ARIZONA (+) over Dallas - Jerry Jones takes this southwestern rival seriously as DAL is 3-1 SU
& 4-0 ATS vs ARZ since they left the NFC East. DAL is on a 2-7 ATS run. ARZ is 7-3 ATS at home. This
game features DAL #4 & #14 units (-4 TO’s) vs ARZ #5 & #12 units (+1 TO’s). ARZ doesn’t expect WR
Boldin (sinus fracture) to return until after the bye week. ARZ rebounded from their embarrassing road
loss to NYJ by stopping BUF cold with a 41-17 win. They KO’d QB Edwards (concussion) and then kept
an unprepared Losman off balance all day as they converted 4 TO’s into 17 pts. ARZ was in complete
control all day as they had 28-13 FD & 12:22 TOP edges holding RB Lynch to 55 yds (4.2) rushing. DAL
struggled to put CIN away & were a failed 2 pt conversion by CIN from being tied late in the 4Q. Romo
only had 176 yds passing (61%) with a 3-1 ratio but they rediscovered their run game with a 198 (5.2) to
61 (2.7) rush edge. Despite a roster “stocked with Pro Bowlers” the Cowboys really haven’t displayed a
killer instinct this year. They historically had a home edge with a solid fan following but ARZ’s new stadium
& recent success has taken that away. Although the loss of Boldin is a significant blow the defense has
picked up the slack. Look for Safeties Wilson & Rolle to help shut down the intermediate passing game
& provide run support in a higher scoring game. FORECAST: ARIZONA 28 (+) Dallas 27
OTHER GAMES
NEW ORLEANS 30 Oakland 20 - NO is off LW’s MNF game vs MIN & lost 1st RD DC Ellis for 4 wks
before the game. The Raiders return from their bye week (0-5 ATS) with former Idaho HC Tom Cable
(11-25 SU & 17-23 ATS) who is an OL coach by trade, taking over as Al Davis’ figurehead. Former ATL
OC Greg Knapp will call the offense & Rob Ryan remains the DC. Interim rookie HC’s are 4-12-1 ATS
in their 1st game S/’89. This will be Russell’s 1st start in a dome where OAK is 0-6 ATS. NO is 2-6 ATS
vs the AFC. Brees is 7-1 ATS vs OAK from his days with SD avg 191 ypg (64%) with a 13-4 ratio & he
gives NO a massive edge here. Brees is the hottest QB in the NFL prior to MNF avg 336 ypg (72%)
with an 8-4 ratio & getting RB Deuce back vs SF gives the offense the power aspect it needed. OAK
should have a healthier McFadden (turf toe) & expect to get Fargas who is their best pass protector
back. NO is vulnerable vs the run (#19) & pass (#29) & are a beat up team overall. Firing Kiffin was a
huge mistake as the roster believed in him & look for NO to jump out to a fast start, take Russell out of
his comfort zone & make him pass though NO will give up some big yards here.
INDIANAPOLIS 17 Baltimore 14 - Including playoffs this is the 5th meeting in as many years & the Colts
are 4-0 SU & ATS. LY IND beat an injury depleted BAL team off an emotional MNF loss to NE 44-20 on
SNF as a 9 pt AF. BAL was without Rolle & McAllister & IND jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the 2Q & was up
44-7 in the 3Q. BAL switched to Troy Smith & IND allowed 13 pts in garbage time. IND had a 334-243 yd
edge & was +5 in TO’s. IND is 1-4 ATS as a HF. BAL is 1-8 SU & ATS on the road. Manning has done well
vs BAL in the reg season avg 259 ypg (67%) with an 8-1 ratio. BAL gets a break here after facing 2 of the
most physical teams in the NFL in PIT & TEN. IND has some very basic Football 101 problems as they only
avg 68 ypg (3.6) running the ball (#32) & are allowing 189 ypg (4.9) (#32) which plays into BAL’s strengths
as they are 4th rushing the ball (154 ypg 3.8) & 1st stopping the run (64 ypg 2.8). BAL played a very good
game vs TEN LW & thru the 1st 3Q had 18-8 FD & 231-67 yd edges before letting a 10-3 lead slip thru their
fingers. IND was very lucky to beat HOU LW as Rosenfels fumbled the ball twice in the final 3:54 which the
Colts converted into 14 pts for the win. BAL is utilizing Flacco similar to how PIT utilized Roethlisberger as
a rookie & with both of IND’s wins coming vs teams that self destructed late in the game we’ll side with an
angry BAL team that is executing the basic fundamentals very well & getting points.
NY JETS 30 Cincinnati 27 - The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 LY as a 6.5 pt HF. The Jets blew a 23-10 lead
with 11:15 left in the 3Q as Palmer led the team on 76 & 57 yd TD drives to take a 24-23 lead. CIN then turned
2 TO’s into 14 pts (38-23) & with :32 left they gave up a 32 yd pass (2pt conv). CIN is in a poor spot as this
is the 3rd road game in 4 games & get a Jets team that is 6-0 ATS after a bye. NYJ are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 6
or more. LY after 5 games CIN was being outgained an avg 393-367 losing by an avg of 31-25. TY they are
being outgained 339-239 & are losing by an avg 24-15. They are playing with a talented but wounded QB &
have nothing to offer on the ground being outrushed 171 (4.5) to 78 (3.3) TY.
LY after 4 games the Jets were1-3 being outgained 366-283 & losing by an avg 26-18. TY they have been outgained 341-308 with a 29-29
scoring margin & the yardage is off due to the short fields the team got vs ARZ. LY after 4 starts Favre avg’d
301 ypg (66%) with an 8-2 ratio & 7.1 ypa. TY he’s avg 233 ypg (70%) with a 12-4 ratio & 7.5 ypa & is coming
off one of his career best games. Palmer has done well in his L2 starts vs NYG & DAL & the team played here
just 3 weeks ago but the Jets don’t have the same fan fervor the Giants do. We’ll side with an increasingly
frustrated road team as long as Palmer starts vs the weakest defense (21) he’s played so far.
TAMPA BAY 16 Carolina 13 - CAR is 7-3 ATS vs TB & while they beat TB 31-23 in the season finale LY as
a 3 pt AF the Bucs were resting everyone they could to prepare for their Wildcard game. Both are in positive
technical spots as CAR is 6-0-1 ATS as a div AD &TB is 5-1-1 ATS as a div favorite. CAR is off a pair of easy
wins vs a pair of bottom tier teams as they mauled KC 34-0 & had 17-5 FD & 380-77 yd edges thru the 1st
3Q of the game but AD’s off a shutout win are 5-14-2 ATS since 1998. The stalwarts of the CAR offense
seems to be in gear again as Delhomme (236 yds 64% 2-1 LW) is throwing deep to Steve Smith (6 rec, 16.0)
with RB Williams (123, 6.3) keeping the pass rush honest. The CAR OL was without both starting OT’s LW
& while KC couldn’t exploit that TB will if they don’t return. TB returns from a trip to DEN where QB Griese
was KO’d with a shoulder inj & they went back to Garcia who had fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.
TB is a team that can deliver superior line play on both sides of the ball as minus the CHI game they have
rushed for 157 yds (5.6) with just 7 sacks. The DL gets credit for holding opponents to 100 ypg (3.7) rushing
with 11 sacks. CAR has the momentum off their 2 game home stand & TB is in a bit of a fix as while Garcia
gives them a good chance of winning he doesn’t fit the 2008 TB offense as he freelances too much. We’ll
call this at the line for now & see what CAR’s OL & TB’s injury situations are this week.
MINNESOTA 31 Detroit 17 - MIN is off a potential shootout vs NO & faces a DET team that came out flat
after their bye vs CHI. The fav is 4-1-1 ATS & MIN beat DET 42-10 as a 4 pt HF LY. MIN had a 35-10 lead at
the half & finished with 29-14 FD & 443-254 yd edges & they dominated with a 216 (5.5) - 23 (3.3) rushing
edge on the ground. DET was in a good spot at home LW catching a CHI team on a slightly short week
that was w/o susp DT Harris, its #1WR & the secondary was very beat up also. However, they still have
problems with a slow start as they went 3 & out on 4 of their first 5 drives with a fumble & were outgained
353-94 thru the 1st 3Q. DET has been outrushed 180 (4.4) to 72 (5.0) & the #28 pass defense is worse
than its rankings allowing 253 ypg (68%) with an 8-0 ratio (122.2 QBR) & a whopping 9.4 ypa. While MIN
has its own set of problems at QB they are solid in the trenches outrushing foes 141 (4.7) to 72 (2.9) prior
to MNF. MIN’s high priced DL gets a good matchup vs a DET OL that is 29th allowing 16 sacks. Kitna is
1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS vs MIN & is only avg 256 ypg (66%) with a 4-8 ratio. He was pulled early in the 2H
for Dan Orlovsky & at 0-4 a QB change could be coming. There is no line due to the MNF game but MIN’s
strengths matchup very well vs the DET weaknesses & we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the road team.
Chicago 20 ATLANTA 10 - This is a bit of a flat spot for CHI who are off an SNF game vs IND, a pair
of blown 4Q leads vs CAR & TB, a SNF game vs PHI & a division road game with DET & has a HG vs
MIN on deck. ATL has a bye on deck & is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS before it. CHI is 4-1-1 ATS as a non-div AF.
The Bears mauled a bad DET team LW as they were up 17-0 at the half with a 12-5 FD, 251-67 yd edge
with a 2-1 TOP edge. Orton had a great day passing for 334 yds (71%) with a 2-0 ratio to make up for
a tough game by Forte who only had 36 yds (2.4) on the ground. ATL had a good matchup LW, getting
points vs a beat up GB team with a wounded Rodgers & depleted defense. At the half ATL had 13-5 FD
& 240-123 yd edges and while Ryan had a very good 1H (154 yds 72% 2-0) he only threw 8 pass att’s
in the 2H as ATL tried to grind out the clock. ATL returns home where they have notched a 426-305 yd
edge but that was vs DET’s #32 & KC’s #30 defenses. Versus 2 decent defenses (TB #16 & CAR #4)
ATL has been outgained 356-251 being outscored 24-9 in both games. CHI should get DT Harris & WR
Lloyd (15 rec 16.6) back here & have faced a much tougher schedule & should get the win.
Jacksonville 21 DENVER 20 - This is a tough spot for JAX who are coming off a SNF game vs PIT &
now has to travel from sea level to DEN (17% less oxygen) on a short week. Teams are 6-22 ATS after
facing PIT. DEN remembers their 23-14 loss well as a 3.5 pt HF LY which wasn’t as close as the final
score indicated. JAX opened the game with an 18 play 80 yd drive that took up 11:44. In the 1H JAX had
a 13-4 FD edge & was up 20-7 after converting a muffed KR by DEN to start the 3Q into a FG. DEN was
SOD at the JAX 3, SOD on 4&5 & int’d at the DEN 35 after the 2:00 warning. DEN is 3-12 ATS as a HF
while JAX is 15-5-1 ATS as an AD. JAX OL issues & lack of talent at WR really hampered the offense in
the first 2 games as they were outrushed 107 (3.7) to 66 (3.0). In the L2 games they settled into their new
OL & vs the #24 & #19 defenses they had a 188 (5.1) to 97 (4.6) yd edge. JAX got WR Porter back vs
HOU & C Meester may return here. They now take on DEN’s #30 defense which is allowing 134 ypg (5.2)
rushing. JAX’s offense is slowly taking shape & their defense is better than their #18 ranking. JAX is 2-2
pending SNF & with TEN (5-0) in the division they have to look at this game with Wildcard implications.
DEN is up on the AFC West thanks to 2 bad official’s calls (SD & NO) & with a MNF road game vs NE
on deck this is a flat spot for a young team & we’ll side for the road team here.
Philadelphia 27 SAN FRANCISCO 20 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Eagles going 2-0
SU & ATS with an avg score of 40-14 with a 499-273 yd edge. This is the 1st WC game for PHI since
the last meeting vs SF in 2006. PHI is 13-3 ATS on the road after a SU home loss but 2-7 ATS before
a bye under Reid. PHI finds themselves 2-3 & 4th in the NFC East standings after blowing a 14-0 lead
to start the game vs WAS. Westbrook was able start the game but was ineffective with 18 touches (4.7)
due to a chest injury. Thru the final 3Q PHI was outFD 21-5 & outgained 365-121 as WAS ran 75 total
plays vs PHI’s 47. While PHI has struggled in div play they have outFD non-div foes 21-12 & outgained
them 374-201 allowing just 49 ypg (2.5) rushing. NE used a very basic gameplan LW vs SF as they
stuck to the run & wore out the defense with 43 rush att’s (3.3) keeping the defense on the field for
39:52. SF kept it close until the 4Q but NE basically posted a 2-1 edge in FD’s, yards & TOP. PHI has a
great matchup with a defense that is #1 in sacks by (18) vs a SF OL that is #32 in sacks allowed (20).
SF is a much better team that 2007’s version but we’ll side with a road team that has the #9 & #6 units
(+3 TO) that travels very well vs a SF team with the #21 & #22 units (-3 TO’s).
New England at SAN DIEGO - The Patriots are staying at San Jose St instead of enduring a roundtrip
to the East. This is the 5th meeting in 4 years & the road team has covered 3 of 4. SD has legit revenge
here as LY the Patriots beat SD 38-14 in Wk 2 as a 3.5 pt HF on SNF as the Spygate scandal just
started. NE then knocked SD out of the playoffs with a 21-12 win as a 14 pt HF. SD was in very bad
shape as QB Rivers played on a torn ACL, Gates had a dislocated toe & Tomlinson left after 2 snaps
due to a knee sprain in a game played in 9° windchill. The Chargers were caught looking ahead LW &
lost to MIA 17-10 as they only ran 49 offensive plays. NE played to its depth at RB & wore out SF LW
for a 30-21 win. Can SD rebound or will NE overcome the road logistics.
NY Giants at CLEVELAND - This is the 1st MNF game for CLE since Wk 14 of 2003. These teams
met in the 2nd preseason game & the Browns 2008 troubles started there as the Giants blasted QB
Anderson & gave him a concussion. Anderson would miss the rest of preseason & the CLE offense
would suffer as combined with other injuries there was no cohesion. CLE is off a tough win vs CIN &
OC Chudzinski noted during the bye that they would alter the offense to play to the strengths of their
run. The Giants dismantled SEA 44-6 LW in a great spot but their only road game was in STL who lacks
anything resembling the crowd edge CLE brings here
Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we select the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night
& list them. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3* Totals are 11-4 73%!
Here are this week's plays:
3* Bengals/Jets Over 45'
3* Ravens/Colts Under 39
3* Panthers/Bucs Under 36'
2*Packers/Seahawks Over 47
2* Cowboys/Cardinals Over 48'
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CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 9 - 13, 2008 No. 7
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
11 *ARMY over Eastern Michigan
Late Score Forecast:
*ARMY 31 - Eastern Michigan 19
The Army’s new triple option running game is showing remarkable results, and the Cadets figure to present
serious matchup challenges for Eastern Michigan. The Eagle defense ranks 99th against the run and is yielding
almost 5 ypc, and it’s surrendered 17 rush TDs & 38 ppg in the last 5 games. EMU is just 5-12 vs. the number in
last 17 games under HC Jeff Genyk, and QB Andy Schmitt and Kyle McMahon have combined to throw just 4 TD
passes but 6 ints. this season (last year Schmitt had a 14 TD/6 int. ratio). After rushing for 230 yds. in first two
games, sr. Eagle RB Terrence Blevins has averaged just 33 ypg on the ground. Army is a tiny favorite, and EMU
is 0-38-1 SU visiting non-conference foes since winning at Youngstown State on Sept. 10, 1988.
10 *MEMPHIS over Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
*MEMPHIS 27 - Louisville 23
(NOTE: game is scheduled for
Friday, October 10)
Louisville is taking to the road for the first time this season! And, while former Michigan defensive coordinator
Ron English deserves lots of credit for solidifying the shaky Cardinal defense, it is a fact that Louisville is an
unproven commodity on the road, where they were only 2-4 LY, with only one victory by more than four points.
Thus, the percentages appear to be against the Cards, who must show they’re capable of dealing with the
emerging Memphis offense featuring 6-3 juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week at UAB), juco RB Curtis Steele
(578 YR, 6.4 ypc), and a tall and experienced cast of WRs. CKO scouts report the Tigers’ confidence is growing
following three straight victories (albeit vs. marginal competition), and proud Memphis is 16-8 when a home dog
the last 10+Ys.
10 *INDIANA over Iowa
Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 23 - Iowa 19
Really don’t see enough difference between these two to warrant Iowa being made an early 5½-point road
favorite over Indiana. Hoosiers have a dynamic, veteran QB in Kellen Lewis who’s completed 61% of his passes
this season and has rushed for 1552 yds. & 17 TDs in his career. Indiana’s 2ndary got a bit healthier last week
vs. Minnesota with the return of safeties Austin Thomas and Nick Polk (combined for 17 tackles vs. Gophers).
Hoosiers have gotten consistent big plays from track star RB Marcus Thigpen, who has 309 yards rushing &
receiving and 4 TDs in the last 2 games, scoring 3 times on plays of more than 70 yards. Respect Iowa RB Shonn
Greene’s credentials (6th in the nation in rushing), but he’s a bit of a “grinder” who scored just once in Big Ten
games against Northwestern & Michigan State. Hoosier rush defense is more than respectable (3.1 ypc), and
vet defenders LB Geno Johnson and DE Jammie Kirlew are having strong seasons.
10 UTAH over *Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
UTAH 41 - *Wyoming 6
Undefeated Utah has a mean streak where Wyoming is concerned, as bad blood between these two goes way
back. Last season the Utes recorded a 50-0 victory and certainly are not opposed to kicking an opponent when
it’s down. Just ask Utah State, as a 44-10 lead over the Aggies after 3 Qs on Sept. 13 just wasn’t good enough
for Ute HC Kyle Whittingham, who watched his team punch across two more scores in 4th period. Wyoming HC
Glenn’s “You’re Number One” signal during LY’s shellacking caught Whittingham’s attention, and the Cowboys
are on an 0-13-1 pointspread run, rank last in the nation in scoring, and next to last in TO margin. Can’t be overly
concerned about laying this many points on the road, as road favorites of 14 points or more are 11-5 this season,
especially considering Wyo is coming off losses of 24, 29 and 44 pts. in last three games.
10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Cleveland
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 31 - *Cleveland 13
(Monday, October 13)
Giants’ strengths way too many in this matchup. Solid at QB. Aggressive and still underrated in the OL. Three
deep at RB. Plaxico Burress due to return at WR after his suspension. Intimidating pass rush. Highly-ranked run
defense. Improved young depth in the secondary. A demanding but more simpatico coach who generates a daily
work ethic second to few. And, best yet for this game, a warrior mentality on the road that has produced a 12-
game road unbeaten string and ten straight covers away from home. Meanwhile, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis (3.4
ypc) has lost a step, QB Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has failed to justify his new deal, and the injurythinned
defense has produced only 6 sacks in 4 games. CKO scouts say Giants fully aware they can’t afford
a misstep in the rugged NFC East.
TOTALS:
Baltimore-Indianapolis OVER (39)—Injury-depleted Indy defense giving up points, but Peyton has the targets to bail it out...
Cincinnati-N.Y. Jets UNDER (45)—Poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only 15 ppg; Jets now have more ball control with Favre converting third downs.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
NORTHWESTERN (+3) vs. Michigan State—NW QB Bacher threw for 520 yards and 5 TDs with no ints. in last season’s OT win at Michigan State, and the Wildcat run defense (112 ypg rushing; 3.4 ypc) is good enough to slow Spartan RB Javon Ringer a step or two...
MICHIGAN (-17) vs. Toledo—Michigan has bounced back from SU losses twice this season, and Toledo’s defense (36 ppg) will make Rich Rod’s Wolverine spread look good...
FLORIDA (-4) vs. Lsu—Tim Tebow has Florida offense on track, and this is a major revenge game for Gator side that is back in the thick of the national title race with a win over the Tigers...
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-21½) vs. North Texas—North Texas is on our “go-against” list, vs. Cincinnati—Bengals have scored just 6 offensive TDs in 5 games. Brett Favre threw for 6 scores in Jets last game...you do the math.
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PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 9 - 13, 2008 No. 7
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
11 *ARMY over Eastern Michigan
Late Score Forecast:
*ARMY 31 - Eastern Michigan 19
The Army’s new triple option running game is showing remarkable results, and the Cadets figure to present
serious matchup challenges for Eastern Michigan. The Eagle defense ranks 99th against the run and is yielding
almost 5 ypc, and it’s surrendered 17 rush TDs & 38 ppg in the last 5 games. EMU is just 5-12 vs. the number in
last 17 games under HC Jeff Genyk, and QB Andy Schmitt and Kyle McMahon have combined to throw just 4 TD
passes but 6 ints. this season (last year Schmitt had a 14 TD/6 int. ratio). After rushing for 230 yds. in first two
games, sr. Eagle RB Terrence Blevins has averaged just 33 ypg on the ground. Army is a tiny favorite, and EMU
is 0-38-1 SU visiting non-conference foes since winning at Youngstown State on Sept. 10, 1988.
10 *MEMPHIS over Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
*MEMPHIS 27 - Louisville 23
(NOTE: game is scheduled for
Friday, October 10)
Louisville is taking to the road for the first time this season! And, while former Michigan defensive coordinator
Ron English deserves lots of credit for solidifying the shaky Cardinal defense, it is a fact that Louisville is an
unproven commodity on the road, where they were only 2-4 LY, with only one victory by more than four points.
Thus, the percentages appear to be against the Cards, who must show they’re capable of dealing with the
emerging Memphis offense featuring 6-3 juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week at UAB), juco RB Curtis Steele
(578 YR, 6.4 ypc), and a tall and experienced cast of WRs. CKO scouts report the Tigers’ confidence is growing
following three straight victories (albeit vs. marginal competition), and proud Memphis is 16-8 when a home dog
the last 10+Ys.
10 *INDIANA over Iowa
Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 23 - Iowa 19
Really don’t see enough difference between these two to warrant Iowa being made an early 5½-point road
favorite over Indiana. Hoosiers have a dynamic, veteran QB in Kellen Lewis who’s completed 61% of his passes
this season and has rushed for 1552 yds. & 17 TDs in his career. Indiana’s 2ndary got a bit healthier last week
vs. Minnesota with the return of safeties Austin Thomas and Nick Polk (combined for 17 tackles vs. Gophers).
Hoosiers have gotten consistent big plays from track star RB Marcus Thigpen, who has 309 yards rushing &
receiving and 4 TDs in the last 2 games, scoring 3 times on plays of more than 70 yards. Respect Iowa RB Shonn
Greene’s credentials (6th in the nation in rushing), but he’s a bit of a “grinder” who scored just once in Big Ten
games against Northwestern & Michigan State. Hoosier rush defense is more than respectable (3.1 ypc), and
vet defenders LB Geno Johnson and DE Jammie Kirlew are having strong seasons.
10 UTAH over *Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
UTAH 41 - *Wyoming 6
Undefeated Utah has a mean streak where Wyoming is concerned, as bad blood between these two goes way
back. Last season the Utes recorded a 50-0 victory and certainly are not opposed to kicking an opponent when
it’s down. Just ask Utah State, as a 44-10 lead over the Aggies after 3 Qs on Sept. 13 just wasn’t good enough
for Ute HC Kyle Whittingham, who watched his team punch across two more scores in 4th period. Wyoming HC
Glenn’s “You’re Number One” signal during LY’s shellacking caught Whittingham’s attention, and the Cowboys
are on an 0-13-1 pointspread run, rank last in the nation in scoring, and next to last in TO margin. Can’t be overly
concerned about laying this many points on the road, as road favorites of 14 points or more are 11-5 this season,
especially considering Wyo is coming off losses of 24, 29 and 44 pts. in last three games.
10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Cleveland
Late Score Forecast:
N.Y. GIANTS 31 - *Cleveland 13
(Monday, October 13)
Giants’ strengths way too many in this matchup. Solid at QB. Aggressive and still underrated in the OL. Three
deep at RB. Plaxico Burress due to return at WR after his suspension. Intimidating pass rush. Highly-ranked run
defense. Improved young depth in the secondary. A demanding but more simpatico coach who generates a daily
work ethic second to few. And, best yet for this game, a warrior mentality on the road that has produced a 12-
game road unbeaten string and ten straight covers away from home. Meanwhile, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis (3.4
ypc) has lost a step, QB Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has failed to justify his new deal, and the injurythinned
defense has produced only 6 sacks in 4 games. CKO scouts say Giants fully aware they can’t afford
a misstep in the rugged NFC East.
TOTALS:
Baltimore-Indianapolis OVER (39)—Injury-depleted Indy defense giving up points, but Peyton has the targets to bail it out...
Cincinnati-N.Y. Jets UNDER (45)—Poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only 15 ppg; Jets now have more ball control with Favre converting third downs.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
NORTHWESTERN (+3) vs. Michigan State—NW QB Bacher threw for 520 yards and 5 TDs with no ints. in last season’s OT win at Michigan State, and the Wildcat run defense (112 ypg rushing; 3.4 ypc) is good enough to slow Spartan RB Javon Ringer a step or two...
MICHIGAN (-17) vs. Toledo—Michigan has bounced back from SU losses twice this season, and Toledo’s defense (36 ppg) will make Rich Rod’s Wolverine spread look good...
FLORIDA (-4) vs. Lsu—Tim Tebow has Florida offense on track, and this is a major revenge game for Gator side that is back in the thick of the national title race with a win over the Tigers...
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-21½) vs. North Texas—North Texas is on our “go-against” list, vs. Cincinnati—Bengals have scored just 6 offensive TDs in 5 games. Brett Favre threw for 6 scores in Jets last game...you do the math.
<!-- / message -->
Pointwise 10/8--10/13
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
TULSA over Smu RATING: 1 80-30
TEXAS TECH over Nebraska RATING: 1 55-20
ILLINOIS over Minnesota RATING: 2 36-13
TCU over Colorado State RATING: 3 38-14
UTAH over Wyoming RATING: 4 48-7
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State RATING: 4 41-13
LSU (+) over Florida RATING: 5 20-22
KANSAS over Colorado RATING: 5 41-17
Clemson 24 - WAKE FOREST 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Both rested off wrenching
losses. Normally dependable Wake QB Skinner tossed 4 picks in loss to Navy,
& Deacs can't run (61 RYpg last 3). First RG for Tigers who are 0-6 ATS by 60
pts, & Harper only 3/5. But Davis & Spiller are rolling, so a mild Clemson call.
HOUSTON 34 - Uab 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Blazers must regroup off last-second
loss to Memphis. Webb's 93 RYs & 235 PYs (4 TDs) were a pleasant change
for formerly 116th "O". Coog QB Keenum now 19/5, & note piling up >620 yds
vs ECaro. But UH just 1-8 ATS, with upsets in last 3 affairs. Points the play.
FRIDAY
Louisville 30 - MEMPHIS 20 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Tiger "D" back to usual form vs
Uab, winning in final 0:02, but being outstatted, despite 4 Hall TD passes, &
Steele at 304 RYs last 2 wks. Cards have 564-187 RY edge last 2 outings,
behind Powell & Anderson, & remember their 508-279 yd edge over UConn.
SATURDAY
VIRGINIA 31 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00) -- What happened? Cavs came from
a 684-163 RY deficit in lined games, to shocking 201-79 edge in upset of MD
(44-pt cover). VA: 14 TOs in 1st 4 games, but none vs Terps. Dog is 6-0 ATS
by 105½ pts, with 5 upsets in Pirate tilts. Can't ignore 346-yd deficit last gm.
WEST VIRGINIA 44 - Syracuse 10 - (12:00) -- Just 17 ppg for the Mounties in
their last 4 outings, after 41 ppg previous 32. No White in last 1½ quarters vs
Rutgers, but allowing just 39 & 72 RYs last 2 games. 'Cuse ranks 104th or
worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns, & has run only on Akron. This by the book.
Iowa 24 - INDIANA 22 - (12:00) -- Last 3 Hawkeye RGs have been decided by 3,
1, & 3 pts SU, so why not another. Stellar "D" (#20), with RB Greene at 10.0,
6.0, 6.4, 7.6 & 5.2 ypr last 5 wks, so should continue. Indy suddenly a run "D"
force (2.0 ypr LW, after allowing 249 RYpg previously). This could go to wire.
ILLINOIS 36 - Minnesota 13 - (12:00) -- Chalk series, & this should continue that
trend. Super balance for Illini in rout of Michigan with 310 PYs & 121 RYs from
Juice. Note a 1,472-1,219 yd edge for Illini vs Mizzou, PennSt, & Mich. Minny
at 5-1 SU, & +78 ATS last 7, but Gophs were outrushed by 200 yds at OhioSt.
Michigan State 33 - NORTHWESTERN 27 - (3:30) -- Only 3.6 ypr for Ringer
LW, but still at 772 yds last 4 games. Spartans 5-1 SU, & 3-3 ATS, with losses
by ½, ½, 3 pts. Rested 'Cats off to first 5-0 start since '62 (Ara Era), with QB
Bacher tossing 3 TDs vs Iowa. Dog is 14-5 ATS in NW games. Not involved.
Oklahoma 31 - Texas 30 - (12:00 - @ Dallas - ABC) -- What a match! Sooners
#1 in the nation, averaging 49.6 ppg, covering 4-of-4 by 38½ pts, & Bradford at
18/3. Steers #5 in land, averaging 47.2 ppg, covering 5-of-5 by 59 pts, with
McCoy at 16/3 (103-of-130). Okies came from 25 RYs to 217 in a week, but
'Horns own 2nd best running "D" in the land. Have to see a classic shootout.
ARMY 27 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (12:00 - ESPNC) -- These 2 both pulled off
upsets as 20-pt dogs LW. Cadets have posted 280 & 291 RYs last 2 wks, with
187 RYs & 4 TDs for Mooney vs Tulane. EM: a 192-75 pt deficit in lined gms.
BAYLOR 34 - Iowa State 24 - (7:00) -- Bears out of their element LW: 32 FDs &
594 yds, but were +37 pts ATS previous 2, behind catalyst Griffin. Cycs saw
20-0 halftime lead vs Kansas turn into 2nd consecutive wrenching loss (34-31,
35-33), & in revenge sandwich. QB Arnaud (7 TDs last 2 games) not enough.
South Carolina 20 - KENTUCKY 14 - (12:30) -- Two of the best "D"s in the land.
'Cats (#4) held 'Bama to just 1 "O" TD, on a 78-yd run (282-35 RY deficit for
UK). 'Cocks (#1) held OleMiss without a TD over the final 2½ quarters. SC
still can't run, but Smelley opened it up with stellar 327-yd, 3-TD effort vs Rebs.
BUFFALO 26 - Western Michigan 25 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Broncos,
with QB Hiller at 19/4 (347 PYs vs OhioU), & RB West at 574 yds. Dog the
way to go when Bulls take the field (4-0), who backdoored it in '05. A nailbiter.
Vanderbilt 20 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10 - (2:30) -- 'Dores off to best start (5-0) in
65 years! No Nickson over last 2½ quarters vs Aub, but Adams filled in with 2
TD tosses. And check allowing zero pts over the final 48:09. Try 16 sacks for
Vandy TY. 'Dogs allowed 438, 427 yds last 2 tilts, & rank just 101st in run "O".
Utah 48 - WYOMING 7 - (2:00) -- It continues. Cowboys are on an unfathomable
0-13 ATS run, having been outscored 113-16 the past 3 wks, along with 13
TOs. In off allowing 319 RYs. Utes overcame 28-20 deficit in final 1:30 vs
OregSt. Have allowed only 63 RYpg last 3 outings, & took this by 50 last year.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Kansas State 27 - (2:00) -- Vast improvement for Ags in LW's
loss to OkieSt (402-401 yd edge), with 5 TOs the key (previously owned 107th
ranked "O"). Are minus 60 pts ATS at home TY, but 'Cats are lost on the road,
allowing 46 ppg in their last 5 guest shots. And KSt in off a 626-296 yd deficit.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 - Temple 14 - (4:00) -- Bye week just in time for CM,
which is in off 3 consecutive grinders. Lost spread to Buffalo on 65-yd pass in
final 1:30. LeFevour leads balance attack, & run "D should stymie Owls, who've
been in every game, save PennSt. Stewart for DiMichele: 3 TDs LW. Chips!
OHIO STATE 34 - Purdue 13 - (3:30) -- Boiler QB Painter went from a 359 PY
effort vs NoDame to just 112 vs PennSt, with Sheets held to only 59 yds, after
119 RYpg previous 3. Bucks took Wisconsin in final 1:08, with Pryor the real
deal (13-of-19), & Wells churning out 168 RYs. Call it somewhere near spot.
Tcu 38 - COLORADO STATE 14 - (CBSC) -- Rams' 216 RYs vs Vegas were 70
more than any previous game (Johnson: 191 yds). Two TDs in final 9 seconds
of that game. Loved Frogs' rout of SDSt, with a 396 RY edge. Allow only 22
RYpg, & are 83 pts ahead of the spread in their last 10 contests. Once more.
MISSOURI 51 - Oklahoma State 34 - (7:00) -- All the respect for the Cowboys,
& their 5-0 start, while averaging 52.6 ppg. Own #1 rushing "O", #4 total "O",
with Robinson the 5th ranked passer in the land, & Hunter the 3rd best runner.
But not about to buck Tigers, & their 15-4 ATS run, behind Daniel, who is an
astounding 15/1 for the year. #2 "O", & at 43 ppg in their last 9 lined contests.
GEORGIA 27 - Tennessee 17 - (3:30) -- 'Dawgs rested off 'Bama shellacking.
Just 50 RYs (34 for Moreno, altho he is at 6.3 ypr for the season). Vols in off
amassing 9 FDs vs NoIllinois, & are at just 96 RYpg over the last 3 wks, along
with 6, 12, & 13 pts. But a solid run "D", & may just sneak in under the spot.
SO CALIFORNIA 45 - Arizona State 10 - (3:30) -- Troy QB Sanchez (13/3) is
again having knee problems, but figures to start here. Usc has allowed just 32,
71, & 60 RYs in 3 of 4 games, with only OregSt doing anything overland, with
no hope for Devil running game, which ranks 111th in the land (37.5 ypg last 2).
Sun QB Carpenter is just 8/4 for the year, & ASU on 1-8 ATS slide. Romper!
OREGON 41 - Ucla 10 - (10:15 - ABC) -- Ducks were humbled at USC, forcing
but a single punt in 44-10 setback. But OU was at 47.4 ppg before that one, &
has a score to settle here, after Uclans pitched a shutout LY. Bruin win over
WashSt not impressive. Just 28 pts vs Coogs' previous 53 ppg "D". Revenge.
MICHIGAN 30 - Toledo 10 - (12:00) -- Still no offense in Wolve arsenal, ranking
110th in the land, & in off 180-yd deficit vs Illinois. QB Threet iffy at best. Dog
is 6-0 ATS in UM tilts (5 SU upsets), but Rockets in off 3 straight losses for 1st
time in 15 yrs, & off first MAC shutout since '85. Minus 61½ pts ATS last two.
Notre Dame 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 17 - (3:30) -- 'Heels did it with smoke &
mirrors in win over UConn, as 3 picks & 3 blocked punts offset a 23-13 FD
deficit. Tars rank just 99th, overland. Irish improving by the week, with Clausen
at 622 PYs, 6 TDs, & no INTs last 2 wks. And check 17 ppg "D" last 6 games.
AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 10 - (5:00) -- Finally a chance for Tigers to light up the
scoreboard. Super "D" (#9), but no "O" (#91). And note their last 3 games
being decided by 1, 5, 2, & 1 pt SU. But Hogs have no "D", allowing 39.2 ppg
in their last 9 outings, along with a horrible 139-31 pt deficit the last 3 weeks.
NEVADA 40 - New Mexico State 20 - (4:00) -- No reason for Reno not to run all
over porous Ag run "D", which ranked dead last in the nation, before taking it
out on hapless AlcornSt. 'Pack has run for 708 yds past 2 wks, as Kaepernick
has 8 TDs & 716 yds in those 2. Just too much of a burden for Ag QB Holbrook.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34 - Miami-Ohio 20 - (4:00) -- Huskies stand at 2-3 SU,
with their losses coming by 4, 3, & 4 pts, & their wins by 45 & 37 pts. Ouch.
Held Tennessee to 9 FDs & 225 yds, so should somewhat control Merriweather
(133 RYs LW) & Co. The pup is 13-5 ATS in Miami games, but this an NI call.
BYU 47 - NewMexico 14 - (6:00) -- Fifteen straight wins for Coogs, who won last
2 HGs by a combined 103-0 score (+67½ ATS). Hall is now at 17/4, but note
only 103 RYs vs UtahSt's 113th rush "D" LW. Lobos have run for 613 yds the
past 2 wks, but rank just #101 in total "O", & allowed 32.4 ppg pre-Wyoming.
OREGON STATE 50 - Washington State 13 - (6:30) -- Tough loss for Beavers at
Utah, but certainly have the firepower with Rodgers (287 RYs last 2 wks), &
Moevao (313 PYs vs Utes) to further extend Coog defensive futility, which now
shows a 48-10 ppg deficit in lined affairs. OSt covered first 2 HGs by 54½ pts!
Arizona 31 - STANFORD 13 - (5:00) -- Visiting series, & we agree, as the 'Cats
feature the nation's 2nd ranked "D", with Tuitama at 13/2, & Grigsby back in
style. Averaging 43.6 ppg, & covered last RG by 18 pts. Cards improved,
covering last 3 HGs by 21, 10½, & 6 pts, but QB Pritchard isn't to be trusted.
Bowling Green 27 - AKRON 22 - (6:00) -- Shocker for Falcs, in loss to EM, as
20-pt favs. Can't run (<130 yds all 5), but QB Sheehan decent. Visitor is 5-0
ATS by 107 pts in BG games. Zips ran only on hapless Syracuse, so BG call.
KENT STATE 26 - Ohio U 23 - (2:30) -- Still no covers for Flashes, who are on an
0-11-1 ATS run, by 146½ pts, but by just a single pt in their last 2 outing. Are
suddenly potent: 432 RYs last 2 wks, behind do-everything QB Edelman. OU's
formerly solid run "O" at just 97 RYpg in lined games. QB Jackson or nothing.
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17 - (12:00) -- Anderson for Pike for Grutza at QB for
Bearcats: 2 TDs vs Marshall, with a run "D" that has contained all but mighty
Oklahoma. Contrast that to Knights, who rank 82nd both in rushing "O" & "D",
& who are minus 122½ pts ATS in 11 of their last 12 regular season contests.
TEXAS TECH 55 - Nebraska 20 - (3:00) -- Wow! Raiders sure did it up right in
58-28 romp at KansasSt: 33 FDs, 626 yds, 1 punt, with 7 TDs for Harrell. He
is now 18/3. No way can 'Huskers stay with 'em here, as Neb has allowed 47
ppg in its last 8 Big12 games, as well as atrocious 52.6 ppg in its last 4 RGs.
KANSAS 41 - Colorado 17 - (12:30) -- Time for Jays to explode. Sleepwalked
thru 1st half vs IowaSt (20-0 deficit), before pulling out 35-33 win. Reesing at
14/3, & is at 70%. Buff QB Hawkins just 30-of-69 past 2 wks, & check CU with
124, 135, & 120 RY deficits last 3 contests. Fourth straight killer takes its toll.
WISCONSIN 24 - Penn State 22 - (8:00 - ABC) -- We keep writing about it, so
why not again? Superbly balanced Lions now at 1,628 RYs & 1,463 PYs, with
659 RYs for Royster, & a sweet 9/1 for Clark. Badgers in off Bielema's first
home loss (now 16-1), by merest of margins. A 220-78 pt edge in last 6 HGs.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 31 - Central Florida 13 - (3:45) -- Yes, we know that the 'Canes
are an incredible minus 250½ pts ATS in their last 29 games, & fresh off a RY
deficit of 281-51 vs FlaSt. Rank 99th on "O", & QB Marve a huge question.
But CF managed only 280 yds vs land's worst "D" LW (SMU). Greco not enuff.
FLORIDA 22 - Lsu 20 - (8:00) -- Gators well remember LY's heartbreak, & LW's
balanced display surely proved that revenge is attainable. But their running "O"
wasn't all that impressive before their win over Arkies' sieve "D". Bengals field
a 69 RYpg "D", & Scott at 273 RYs last 2 games. Series RD always the play.
SAN JOSE STATE 41 - Utah State 13 - (7:30) -- We've been patiently awaiting
Spartans return home after riding their 19-pt cover in 1st such setup (476-146
yd edge, including a 293-6 RY advantage). Now +177½ ATS home since '06.
Ags on 3-20 SU run, & rank 108th in total "D". QB Borel not the answer here.
Tulsa 80 - SMU 30 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The 'Canes own the #1 offense in the
nation (nearly 600 ypg, along with 55 ppg in lined games), with QB Johnson
(also #1) at 23/5, including 16 TD passes the past 3 wks. Jones' Ponies can
move it (Mitchell: 351 PYs vs CFla), but field the worst rushing "O" & total "D".
Boise State 31 - SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Eagles 0-2 in C-USA for
1st time in league's 13-yr history, despite a 272 RY (Fletcher: 260), & 264 PY
showing vs Utep. The Broncos not normally at their best on non-division road,
but upset Oregon in last RG. Moore: 5 TDs & 711 PYs in his 2 starts thus far.
UTEP 45 - Tulane 33 - (9:00) -- Wave just can't handle solid chalk role. Are in off
monumental 51-pt ATS loss to Army. Owned #9 run "D", before 291 in that
one. Miner QB Vittatoe: 4 TD passes in upset of SoMiss (7 last 2 wks): 2nd
straight win off 9 losses. Covered last HG by 50½ pts. Should be a wild one.
Air Force 40 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (9:30) -- That's right: 569 RYs for the
Falcons in LY's 55-23 wipeout of the Aztecs. AF in off a pair of tough losses
(had 2 punts blocked for TDs vs Mids), & quick shot at recovery. SDSt can't
run it, nor stop the run. Came from >600 yds to just 85 in a week. Only way.
FRESNO STATE 51 - Idaho 17 - (10:00) -- Fast chance for Bulldogs to take out
frustrations off tough loss to Hawaii (6 TOs, with 3 Brandstater INTs). Not the
best of run defense lately (234 ypr last 3), but the Vandals are helpless. Minus
106½ ATS so far TY, on 1-13 ATS run, & allowing 43 ppg in last 21 lined affairs.
HAWAII 24 - Louisiana Tech 23 - (12:05) -- Tech remembers LYs heartwrenching
loss, but despite a decent run "D" (#19: held MissSt, Kansas, & Boise to 116
RYpg), they have a 174-23 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs. 'Bows in off rare win,
with 6 takeaways the key, but note allowing 522 yds to Fresno. Not involved.
ADDED GAMES
Ball State 41 - WESTERN KY 13
ARKANSAS ST 38 - La-Monroe 20
FLA INTERN'AL 21 - Mid Tenn St 17
La-Lafayette 37 - NO TEXAS 13
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
TULSA over Smu RATING: 1 80-30
TEXAS TECH over Nebraska RATING: 1 55-20
ILLINOIS over Minnesota RATING: 2 36-13
TCU over Colorado State RATING: 3 38-14
UTAH over Wyoming RATING: 4 48-7
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State RATING: 4 41-13
LSU (+) over Florida RATING: 5 20-22
KANSAS over Colorado RATING: 5 41-17
Clemson 24 - WAKE FOREST 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Both rested off wrenching
losses. Normally dependable Wake QB Skinner tossed 4 picks in loss to Navy,
& Deacs can't run (61 RYpg last 3). First RG for Tigers who are 0-6 ATS by 60
pts, & Harper only 3/5. But Davis & Spiller are rolling, so a mild Clemson call.
HOUSTON 34 - Uab 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Blazers must regroup off last-second
loss to Memphis. Webb's 93 RYs & 235 PYs (4 TDs) were a pleasant change
for formerly 116th "O". Coog QB Keenum now 19/5, & note piling up >620 yds
vs ECaro. But UH just 1-8 ATS, with upsets in last 3 affairs. Points the play.
FRIDAY
Louisville 30 - MEMPHIS 20 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Tiger "D" back to usual form vs
Uab, winning in final 0:02, but being outstatted, despite 4 Hall TD passes, &
Steele at 304 RYs last 2 wks. Cards have 564-187 RY edge last 2 outings,
behind Powell & Anderson, & remember their 508-279 yd edge over UConn.
SATURDAY
VIRGINIA 31 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00) -- What happened? Cavs came from
a 684-163 RY deficit in lined games, to shocking 201-79 edge in upset of MD
(44-pt cover). VA: 14 TOs in 1st 4 games, but none vs Terps. Dog is 6-0 ATS
by 105½ pts, with 5 upsets in Pirate tilts. Can't ignore 346-yd deficit last gm.
WEST VIRGINIA 44 - Syracuse 10 - (12:00) -- Just 17 ppg for the Mounties in
their last 4 outings, after 41 ppg previous 32. No White in last 1½ quarters vs
Rutgers, but allowing just 39 & 72 RYs last 2 games. 'Cuse ranks 104th or
worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns, & has run only on Akron. This by the book.
Iowa 24 - INDIANA 22 - (12:00) -- Last 3 Hawkeye RGs have been decided by 3,
1, & 3 pts SU, so why not another. Stellar "D" (#20), with RB Greene at 10.0,
6.0, 6.4, 7.6 & 5.2 ypr last 5 wks, so should continue. Indy suddenly a run "D"
force (2.0 ypr LW, after allowing 249 RYpg previously). This could go to wire.
ILLINOIS 36 - Minnesota 13 - (12:00) -- Chalk series, & this should continue that
trend. Super balance for Illini in rout of Michigan with 310 PYs & 121 RYs from
Juice. Note a 1,472-1,219 yd edge for Illini vs Mizzou, PennSt, & Mich. Minny
at 5-1 SU, & +78 ATS last 7, but Gophs were outrushed by 200 yds at OhioSt.
Michigan State 33 - NORTHWESTERN 27 - (3:30) -- Only 3.6 ypr for Ringer
LW, but still at 772 yds last 4 games. Spartans 5-1 SU, & 3-3 ATS, with losses
by ½, ½, 3 pts. Rested 'Cats off to first 5-0 start since '62 (Ara Era), with QB
Bacher tossing 3 TDs vs Iowa. Dog is 14-5 ATS in NW games. Not involved.
Oklahoma 31 - Texas 30 - (12:00 - @ Dallas - ABC) -- What a match! Sooners
#1 in the nation, averaging 49.6 ppg, covering 4-of-4 by 38½ pts, & Bradford at
18/3. Steers #5 in land, averaging 47.2 ppg, covering 5-of-5 by 59 pts, with
McCoy at 16/3 (103-of-130). Okies came from 25 RYs to 217 in a week, but
'Horns own 2nd best running "D" in the land. Have to see a classic shootout.
ARMY 27 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (12:00 - ESPNC) -- These 2 both pulled off
upsets as 20-pt dogs LW. Cadets have posted 280 & 291 RYs last 2 wks, with
187 RYs & 4 TDs for Mooney vs Tulane. EM: a 192-75 pt deficit in lined gms.
BAYLOR 34 - Iowa State 24 - (7:00) -- Bears out of their element LW: 32 FDs &
594 yds, but were +37 pts ATS previous 2, behind catalyst Griffin. Cycs saw
20-0 halftime lead vs Kansas turn into 2nd consecutive wrenching loss (34-31,
35-33), & in revenge sandwich. QB Arnaud (7 TDs last 2 games) not enough.
South Carolina 20 - KENTUCKY 14 - (12:30) -- Two of the best "D"s in the land.
'Cats (#4) held 'Bama to just 1 "O" TD, on a 78-yd run (282-35 RY deficit for
UK). 'Cocks (#1) held OleMiss without a TD over the final 2½ quarters. SC
still can't run, but Smelley opened it up with stellar 327-yd, 3-TD effort vs Rebs.
BUFFALO 26 - Western Michigan 25 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Broncos,
with QB Hiller at 19/4 (347 PYs vs OhioU), & RB West at 574 yds. Dog the
way to go when Bulls take the field (4-0), who backdoored it in '05. A nailbiter.
Vanderbilt 20 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10 - (2:30) -- 'Dores off to best start (5-0) in
65 years! No Nickson over last 2½ quarters vs Aub, but Adams filled in with 2
TD tosses. And check allowing zero pts over the final 48:09. Try 16 sacks for
Vandy TY. 'Dogs allowed 438, 427 yds last 2 tilts, & rank just 101st in run "O".
Utah 48 - WYOMING 7 - (2:00) -- It continues. Cowboys are on an unfathomable
0-13 ATS run, having been outscored 113-16 the past 3 wks, along with 13
TOs. In off allowing 319 RYs. Utes overcame 28-20 deficit in final 1:30 vs
OregSt. Have allowed only 63 RYpg last 3 outings, & took this by 50 last year.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Kansas State 27 - (2:00) -- Vast improvement for Ags in LW's
loss to OkieSt (402-401 yd edge), with 5 TOs the key (previously owned 107th
ranked "O"). Are minus 60 pts ATS at home TY, but 'Cats are lost on the road,
allowing 46 ppg in their last 5 guest shots. And KSt in off a 626-296 yd deficit.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 - Temple 14 - (4:00) -- Bye week just in time for CM,
which is in off 3 consecutive grinders. Lost spread to Buffalo on 65-yd pass in
final 1:30. LeFevour leads balance attack, & run "D should stymie Owls, who've
been in every game, save PennSt. Stewart for DiMichele: 3 TDs LW. Chips!
OHIO STATE 34 - Purdue 13 - (3:30) -- Boiler QB Painter went from a 359 PY
effort vs NoDame to just 112 vs PennSt, with Sheets held to only 59 yds, after
119 RYpg previous 3. Bucks took Wisconsin in final 1:08, with Pryor the real
deal (13-of-19), & Wells churning out 168 RYs. Call it somewhere near spot.
Tcu 38 - COLORADO STATE 14 - (CBSC) -- Rams' 216 RYs vs Vegas were 70
more than any previous game (Johnson: 191 yds). Two TDs in final 9 seconds
of that game. Loved Frogs' rout of SDSt, with a 396 RY edge. Allow only 22
RYpg, & are 83 pts ahead of the spread in their last 10 contests. Once more.
MISSOURI 51 - Oklahoma State 34 - (7:00) -- All the respect for the Cowboys,
& their 5-0 start, while averaging 52.6 ppg. Own #1 rushing "O", #4 total "O",
with Robinson the 5th ranked passer in the land, & Hunter the 3rd best runner.
But not about to buck Tigers, & their 15-4 ATS run, behind Daniel, who is an
astounding 15/1 for the year. #2 "O", & at 43 ppg in their last 9 lined contests.
GEORGIA 27 - Tennessee 17 - (3:30) -- 'Dawgs rested off 'Bama shellacking.
Just 50 RYs (34 for Moreno, altho he is at 6.3 ypr for the season). Vols in off
amassing 9 FDs vs NoIllinois, & are at just 96 RYpg over the last 3 wks, along
with 6, 12, & 13 pts. But a solid run "D", & may just sneak in under the spot.
SO CALIFORNIA 45 - Arizona State 10 - (3:30) -- Troy QB Sanchez (13/3) is
again having knee problems, but figures to start here. Usc has allowed just 32,
71, & 60 RYs in 3 of 4 games, with only OregSt doing anything overland, with
no hope for Devil running game, which ranks 111th in the land (37.5 ypg last 2).
Sun QB Carpenter is just 8/4 for the year, & ASU on 1-8 ATS slide. Romper!
OREGON 41 - Ucla 10 - (10:15 - ABC) -- Ducks were humbled at USC, forcing
but a single punt in 44-10 setback. But OU was at 47.4 ppg before that one, &
has a score to settle here, after Uclans pitched a shutout LY. Bruin win over
WashSt not impressive. Just 28 pts vs Coogs' previous 53 ppg "D". Revenge.
MICHIGAN 30 - Toledo 10 - (12:00) -- Still no offense in Wolve arsenal, ranking
110th in the land, & in off 180-yd deficit vs Illinois. QB Threet iffy at best. Dog
is 6-0 ATS in UM tilts (5 SU upsets), but Rockets in off 3 straight losses for 1st
time in 15 yrs, & off first MAC shutout since '85. Minus 61½ pts ATS last two.
Notre Dame 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 17 - (3:30) -- 'Heels did it with smoke &
mirrors in win over UConn, as 3 picks & 3 blocked punts offset a 23-13 FD
deficit. Tars rank just 99th, overland. Irish improving by the week, with Clausen
at 622 PYs, 6 TDs, & no INTs last 2 wks. And check 17 ppg "D" last 6 games.
AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 10 - (5:00) -- Finally a chance for Tigers to light up the
scoreboard. Super "D" (#9), but no "O" (#91). And note their last 3 games
being decided by 1, 5, 2, & 1 pt SU. But Hogs have no "D", allowing 39.2 ppg
in their last 9 outings, along with a horrible 139-31 pt deficit the last 3 weeks.
NEVADA 40 - New Mexico State 20 - (4:00) -- No reason for Reno not to run all
over porous Ag run "D", which ranked dead last in the nation, before taking it
out on hapless AlcornSt. 'Pack has run for 708 yds past 2 wks, as Kaepernick
has 8 TDs & 716 yds in those 2. Just too much of a burden for Ag QB Holbrook.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34 - Miami-Ohio 20 - (4:00) -- Huskies stand at 2-3 SU,
with their losses coming by 4, 3, & 4 pts, & their wins by 45 & 37 pts. Ouch.
Held Tennessee to 9 FDs & 225 yds, so should somewhat control Merriweather
(133 RYs LW) & Co. The pup is 13-5 ATS in Miami games, but this an NI call.
BYU 47 - NewMexico 14 - (6:00) -- Fifteen straight wins for Coogs, who won last
2 HGs by a combined 103-0 score (+67½ ATS). Hall is now at 17/4, but note
only 103 RYs vs UtahSt's 113th rush "D" LW. Lobos have run for 613 yds the
past 2 wks, but rank just #101 in total "O", & allowed 32.4 ppg pre-Wyoming.
OREGON STATE 50 - Washington State 13 - (6:30) -- Tough loss for Beavers at
Utah, but certainly have the firepower with Rodgers (287 RYs last 2 wks), &
Moevao (313 PYs vs Utes) to further extend Coog defensive futility, which now
shows a 48-10 ppg deficit in lined affairs. OSt covered first 2 HGs by 54½ pts!
Arizona 31 - STANFORD 13 - (5:00) -- Visiting series, & we agree, as the 'Cats
feature the nation's 2nd ranked "D", with Tuitama at 13/2, & Grigsby back in
style. Averaging 43.6 ppg, & covered last RG by 18 pts. Cards improved,
covering last 3 HGs by 21, 10½, & 6 pts, but QB Pritchard isn't to be trusted.
Bowling Green 27 - AKRON 22 - (6:00) -- Shocker for Falcs, in loss to EM, as
20-pt favs. Can't run (<130 yds all 5), but QB Sheehan decent. Visitor is 5-0
ATS by 107 pts in BG games. Zips ran only on hapless Syracuse, so BG call.
KENT STATE 26 - Ohio U 23 - (2:30) -- Still no covers for Flashes, who are on an
0-11-1 ATS run, by 146½ pts, but by just a single pt in their last 2 outing. Are
suddenly potent: 432 RYs last 2 wks, behind do-everything QB Edelman. OU's
formerly solid run "O" at just 97 RYpg in lined games. QB Jackson or nothing.
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17 - (12:00) -- Anderson for Pike for Grutza at QB for
Bearcats: 2 TDs vs Marshall, with a run "D" that has contained all but mighty
Oklahoma. Contrast that to Knights, who rank 82nd both in rushing "O" & "D",
& who are minus 122½ pts ATS in 11 of their last 12 regular season contests.
TEXAS TECH 55 - Nebraska 20 - (3:00) -- Wow! Raiders sure did it up right in
58-28 romp at KansasSt: 33 FDs, 626 yds, 1 punt, with 7 TDs for Harrell. He
is now 18/3. No way can 'Huskers stay with 'em here, as Neb has allowed 47
ppg in its last 8 Big12 games, as well as atrocious 52.6 ppg in its last 4 RGs.
KANSAS 41 - Colorado 17 - (12:30) -- Time for Jays to explode. Sleepwalked
thru 1st half vs IowaSt (20-0 deficit), before pulling out 35-33 win. Reesing at
14/3, & is at 70%. Buff QB Hawkins just 30-of-69 past 2 wks, & check CU with
124, 135, & 120 RY deficits last 3 contests. Fourth straight killer takes its toll.
WISCONSIN 24 - Penn State 22 - (8:00 - ABC) -- We keep writing about it, so
why not again? Superbly balanced Lions now at 1,628 RYs & 1,463 PYs, with
659 RYs for Royster, & a sweet 9/1 for Clark. Badgers in off Bielema's first
home loss (now 16-1), by merest of margins. A 220-78 pt edge in last 6 HGs.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 31 - Central Florida 13 - (3:45) -- Yes, we know that the 'Canes
are an incredible minus 250½ pts ATS in their last 29 games, & fresh off a RY
deficit of 281-51 vs FlaSt. Rank 99th on "O", & QB Marve a huge question.
But CF managed only 280 yds vs land's worst "D" LW (SMU). Greco not enuff.
FLORIDA 22 - Lsu 20 - (8:00) -- Gators well remember LY's heartbreak, & LW's
balanced display surely proved that revenge is attainable. But their running "O"
wasn't all that impressive before their win over Arkies' sieve "D". Bengals field
a 69 RYpg "D", & Scott at 273 RYs last 2 games. Series RD always the play.
SAN JOSE STATE 41 - Utah State 13 - (7:30) -- We've been patiently awaiting
Spartans return home after riding their 19-pt cover in 1st such setup (476-146
yd edge, including a 293-6 RY advantage). Now +177½ ATS home since '06.
Ags on 3-20 SU run, & rank 108th in total "D". QB Borel not the answer here.
Tulsa 80 - SMU 30 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The 'Canes own the #1 offense in the
nation (nearly 600 ypg, along with 55 ppg in lined games), with QB Johnson
(also #1) at 23/5, including 16 TD passes the past 3 wks. Jones' Ponies can
move it (Mitchell: 351 PYs vs CFla), but field the worst rushing "O" & total "D".
Boise State 31 - SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Eagles 0-2 in C-USA for
1st time in league's 13-yr history, despite a 272 RY (Fletcher: 260), & 264 PY
showing vs Utep. The Broncos not normally at their best on non-division road,
but upset Oregon in last RG. Moore: 5 TDs & 711 PYs in his 2 starts thus far.
UTEP 45 - Tulane 33 - (9:00) -- Wave just can't handle solid chalk role. Are in off
monumental 51-pt ATS loss to Army. Owned #9 run "D", before 291 in that
one. Miner QB Vittatoe: 4 TD passes in upset of SoMiss (7 last 2 wks): 2nd
straight win off 9 losses. Covered last HG by 50½ pts. Should be a wild one.
Air Force 40 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (9:30) -- That's right: 569 RYs for the
Falcons in LY's 55-23 wipeout of the Aztecs. AF in off a pair of tough losses
(had 2 punts blocked for TDs vs Mids), & quick shot at recovery. SDSt can't
run it, nor stop the run. Came from >600 yds to just 85 in a week. Only way.
FRESNO STATE 51 - Idaho 17 - (10:00) -- Fast chance for Bulldogs to take out
frustrations off tough loss to Hawaii (6 TOs, with 3 Brandstater INTs). Not the
best of run defense lately (234 ypr last 3), but the Vandals are helpless. Minus
106½ ATS so far TY, on 1-13 ATS run, & allowing 43 ppg in last 21 lined affairs.
HAWAII 24 - Louisiana Tech 23 - (12:05) -- Tech remembers LYs heartwrenching
loss, but despite a decent run "D" (#19: held MissSt, Kansas, & Boise to 116
RYpg), they have a 174-23 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs. 'Bows in off rare win,
with 6 takeaways the key, but note allowing 522 yds to Fresno. Not involved.
ADDED GAMES
Ball State 41 - WESTERN KY 13
ARKANSAS ST 38 - La-Monroe 20
FLA INTERN'AL 21 - Mid Tenn St 17
La-Lafayette 37 - NO TEXAS 13
Pointwise NFL
DALLAS over Arizona RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Indianapolis RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 5
SEATTLE over Green Bay RATING: 5
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24 - (1:00) -- Raider bye week came at a good
time, as they blew 9-pt & 12-pt 4th quarter leads in their previous 2 games. As
a matter of fact, they were outscored 28-3 by the Bills, in their last outing. So
they've actually been in their past 3 games. The way to go thus far, is with the
visitor in Oakland games, as the guest is 4-0 ATS by 53½ pts. Third straight
HG for the Saints, who are in off Monday Nighter. At least 23 pts in each of
their last 9 games, but also 28.5 ppg in last 6 contests. Raiders 21-12 ATS as
RDs off 2 losses, while Saints are 0-10 ATS Oct HFs vs a foe off SU/ATS loss.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Miracle win & cover for Colts LW,
with 3 TDs in final 4:04 (68-yd fumble return, & TD off fumble). Indy still being
mauled, overland, with RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, 236-114, & 156-79, so
this can't be that easy, as the Ravens have FD edges of 21-8, 21-11, 16-11, &
22-14 thus far. Two straight 3-pt losses for Balt, after a 45-20 pt edge in its
first 2 games. The visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS in Colt games lately, & with the
Ravens ranking 3rd in rushing "O", as well as 1st in overall "D", they are worth
a long look. Baltimore is 13-7 ATS off scoring 14 pts or less. Down to the wire.
NEW YORK JETS 26 - Cincinnati 23 - (1:00) -- The man is something. No less
than 6 TD passes for Favre before Jet bye week. That's a career-high for him,
& ties him with Joe Namath for most ever by a Jet. Now 12/4 for the season.
Chance for NY to make a legitimate move with Cincy, Oakland, KC run. But
the Bengals shouldn't go down easily, as they've covered their last 2 RGs by
10½ & 7 pts, altho they do have an 855-385 RY deficit so far. Dog is 12-2 ATS
in Cincy games (10 upsets), & the guest is 7-2 ATS in NY tilts. Jets 1-9 ATS
in Oct vs non-division foes off a pair of losses. Despite Cincy's Dallas-Pitt SW.
TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- As we've written many times, we rarely
stray from the Bucs at home. And this year is no exception, as they've paid off
by 8 & 7½ pts in their 2 hosting opportunities to date. Garcia for Griese (shoulder),
& he was a nice 13-of-17 in that push. Panthers took full advantage of
the anemic Chiefs LW, in 34-0 blowout (441-127 yd edge), which boosts an
"O" which was ranked just 23rd at gametime. Check Williams with 123 RYs &
3 TDs. But Bucs are 9-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 HGs, vs an opponent off a pair of
wins, as well as 24-13 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less. Tampa, as division host.
MINNESOTA 34 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the 14-pt opening line
on this one seems juicy, especially with the Vikes coming in off a Monday Night
appointment. But backing the Lions is a quick trip to the poor house. Check
their current 1-11 SU run, as well a their 2-10 ATS slide. They've been stung
for 35.9 ppg in their last 10 outings, & are simply worse by the week. Can't
run, & can't stop the run (720-281 RY deficit), or anything else. Orlovsky for
Kitna LW, but no matter. Minny nothing special (1-6 ATS), but the fav is 4-0 in
Viking games this year, & they are 5-0-1 ATS in this series of late. Poor Lions.
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16 - (1:00) -- Bears sit atop the NFC Central, with their
fine early season play. They've been a very profitable play of late (+99 pts ATS
in their last 8 games), with Orton certainly earning his stripes. Threw for 324
yds & 2 TDs vs the inept Lions (no INTs). Couple of ointment flies, of course,
not the least of which is the success of the pup in Bear games of late: 6-1-1
ATS, as well as the fact that the host is 5-1 ATS in Falcon contests. Turner
now at 543 RYs, with Ryan 4/3 for the year. But Falcon "D": 28 ppg last 12.
Atlanta 4-19 ATS hosting winning teams, & 11-24 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.
HOUSTON 27 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Incredible loss for Texans LW, after leading
27-10 with 4:05 left, with 2 Rosenfels (for ailing Schaub) fumbles the culprits.
Two straight for oncoming Dolphs, behind 238 RYs from Brown, with Chad a
brilliant 39-of-49 in those 2 (37½ & 13½ pt covers). And they catch Houston
off 3 division games. But Texans averaging 31 ppg in last 6 hosters, with
Schaub's return ensuring a continuation. Miami is 14-25 ATS off a SU dog
win, while Houston is 17-10 ATS off a loss of <11 pts. Texans also 8-2 ATS off
a division game vs a foe off 2 wins. And Kubiak is 7-1 home vs a foe off a win.
WASHINGTON 36 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Would love to jump on the 15 pt line
posted here, but it makes little sense. Like the aforementioned Lions, you need
only look at the Rams' dismal record, namely a 3-16-1 spread log, while failing
to reach 17 pts on 14 occasions since LY, while allowing 38.4 ppg over their
last 7 outings. For example, they led Buffalo 14-6: lost 31-14. Four straight
wins & covers for the 'Skins, with a 649-273 RY edge in those 4. Portis: 266
RYs last 2 weeks (vs Dallas & Philly, no less), & Campbell a force. Rams are
10-22 ATS away vs winning teams, while 'Skins on 8-2 ATS run. Over early.
DENVER 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (4:05) -- Finally a bit of a defensive showing for
the Broncos, who entered their game with the Bucs, off allowing 38, 32, & 33
pts. But just a single TD by Tampa, altho Denver was outrushed at home for
the 1st time. The Broncos are averaging 31 ppg in their last 6 hosters, & rank
#1 in the NFL in total "O". The 'Ville in off being manhandled by Pitt: 415-213
yd & 28-14 FD deficits, altho the Jags did have the lead entering the final 2
minutes. Last 4 J'Ville games have been decided by 4, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so more
of the same here. Broncos 25-15 ATS at home with line between -3 & +3 pts.
Philadelphia 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:15) -- Call similar score to LW's Pat/
49er contest. Check the overwhelming stat advantage of the Patriots: 25-12
FD, & 377-199 yd edges. O'Sullivan: 3 TDs, but also 3 INTs; Gore: from 212
RYs to just 54. This is 3rd of 6 grinders for SanFran, but the Eagles enter this
one off no less than 4 wars, losing the last 2. And note just a FG over the final
52:47 vs the 'Skins (203-58 RY deficit). Thus, a quick chance for redemption,
as well as a return to the right track. The Niners are 2-8 ATS off scoring >20
pts, & losing, & are 12-21 ATS off a spread loss as a dog. Philly bounceback.
Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 23 - (4:15) -- Now or never for the Seahawks, who
have a huge score to settle with the Packers, who administered a 42-20 playoff
pounding LY. As usual, home/away dichotomy in Seattle contests is firmly
entrenched. In their 2 RGs, the 'Hawks have a 78-16 pt deficit, but are at 34.2
ppg in their last 5 hosters. And the homer is 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
Rodgers (shoulder) played for the Pack vs Atlanta, but a crucial INT did them
in. Sure, McCarthy is 8-1 ATS vs opponents off a SU non-division loss, but
have to see Seattle taking advantage of 26th rated Packer defense. Revenge.
SAN DIEGO 29 - New England 15 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Triple revenge shot for the
Chargers, who not only lost to the Pats during the '07 regular season, but also
in the '06 & '07 playoffs. May have been peeking a bit to this one, in LW's 17-
10 loss to the Dolphins, as they had averaged 34.5 ppg in their first 4 games.
And note a current 11-3 ATS run for SD, with 1 of those misses by a single pt.
The Pats are on a 2-8 ATS run, reaching 20 pts in just 1 of their last 5 outings.
A solid showing at SanFran, but Chargers are another matter. They are 13-4
ATS off a SU loss, as well as 16-6 ATS off being upset. Grab this "must-win".
MONDAY
New York Giants 34 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 sure had
classic all-out wars in the old NFL days. Obviously, they are miles apart now, as
the Giants continue to impress. A 523-187 yd edge over Seattle LW, with a 7.1
ypr showing. Eli? Try 65-of-97 the last 3 games. NY has won its last twelve
away games, & is 13-2 ATS away. Brown "D" has held 7 of last 8 opponents <20
pts, but Anderson is just 3/6 for the year. NY is 11-2 away off a SU win of at least
14 pts, while the Browns are 10-16 ATS off a win. Giants rank in the top 8 in all 8
major stat categories, while Cleveland checks in with the worst "O" in the NFL.
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DALLAS over Arizona RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Indianapolis RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 5
SEATTLE over Green Bay RATING: 5
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24 - (1:00) -- Raider bye week came at a good
time, as they blew 9-pt & 12-pt 4th quarter leads in their previous 2 games. As
a matter of fact, they were outscored 28-3 by the Bills, in their last outing. So
they've actually been in their past 3 games. The way to go thus far, is with the
visitor in Oakland games, as the guest is 4-0 ATS by 53½ pts. Third straight
HG for the Saints, who are in off Monday Nighter. At least 23 pts in each of
their last 9 games, but also 28.5 ppg in last 6 contests. Raiders 21-12 ATS as
RDs off 2 losses, while Saints are 0-10 ATS Oct HFs vs a foe off SU/ATS loss.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Miracle win & cover for Colts LW,
with 3 TDs in final 4:04 (68-yd fumble return, & TD off fumble). Indy still being
mauled, overland, with RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, 236-114, & 156-79, so
this can't be that easy, as the Ravens have FD edges of 21-8, 21-11, 16-11, &
22-14 thus far. Two straight 3-pt losses for Balt, after a 45-20 pt edge in its
first 2 games. The visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS in Colt games lately, & with the
Ravens ranking 3rd in rushing "O", as well as 1st in overall "D", they are worth
a long look. Baltimore is 13-7 ATS off scoring 14 pts or less. Down to the wire.
NEW YORK JETS 26 - Cincinnati 23 - (1:00) -- The man is something. No less
than 6 TD passes for Favre before Jet bye week. That's a career-high for him,
& ties him with Joe Namath for most ever by a Jet. Now 12/4 for the season.
Chance for NY to make a legitimate move with Cincy, Oakland, KC run. But
the Bengals shouldn't go down easily, as they've covered their last 2 RGs by
10½ & 7 pts, altho they do have an 855-385 RY deficit so far. Dog is 12-2 ATS
in Cincy games (10 upsets), & the guest is 7-2 ATS in NY tilts. Jets 1-9 ATS
in Oct vs non-division foes off a pair of losses. Despite Cincy's Dallas-Pitt SW.
TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- As we've written many times, we rarely
stray from the Bucs at home. And this year is no exception, as they've paid off
by 8 & 7½ pts in their 2 hosting opportunities to date. Garcia for Griese (shoulder),
& he was a nice 13-of-17 in that push. Panthers took full advantage of
the anemic Chiefs LW, in 34-0 blowout (441-127 yd edge), which boosts an
"O" which was ranked just 23rd at gametime. Check Williams with 123 RYs &
3 TDs. But Bucs are 9-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 HGs, vs an opponent off a pair of
wins, as well as 24-13 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less. Tampa, as division host.
MINNESOTA 34 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the 14-pt opening line
on this one seems juicy, especially with the Vikes coming in off a Monday Night
appointment. But backing the Lions is a quick trip to the poor house. Check
their current 1-11 SU run, as well a their 2-10 ATS slide. They've been stung
for 35.9 ppg in their last 10 outings, & are simply worse by the week. Can't
run, & can't stop the run (720-281 RY deficit), or anything else. Orlovsky for
Kitna LW, but no matter. Minny nothing special (1-6 ATS), but the fav is 4-0 in
Viking games this year, & they are 5-0-1 ATS in this series of late. Poor Lions.
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16 - (1:00) -- Bears sit atop the NFC Central, with their
fine early season play. They've been a very profitable play of late (+99 pts ATS
in their last 8 games), with Orton certainly earning his stripes. Threw for 324
yds & 2 TDs vs the inept Lions (no INTs). Couple of ointment flies, of course,
not the least of which is the success of the pup in Bear games of late: 6-1-1
ATS, as well as the fact that the host is 5-1 ATS in Falcon contests. Turner
now at 543 RYs, with Ryan 4/3 for the year. But Falcon "D": 28 ppg last 12.
Atlanta 4-19 ATS hosting winning teams, & 11-24 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.
HOUSTON 27 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Incredible loss for Texans LW, after leading
27-10 with 4:05 left, with 2 Rosenfels (for ailing Schaub) fumbles the culprits.
Two straight for oncoming Dolphs, behind 238 RYs from Brown, with Chad a
brilliant 39-of-49 in those 2 (37½ & 13½ pt covers). And they catch Houston
off 3 division games. But Texans averaging 31 ppg in last 6 hosters, with
Schaub's return ensuring a continuation. Miami is 14-25 ATS off a SU dog
win, while Houston is 17-10 ATS off a loss of <11 pts. Texans also 8-2 ATS off
a division game vs a foe off 2 wins. And Kubiak is 7-1 home vs a foe off a win.
WASHINGTON 36 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Would love to jump on the 15 pt line
posted here, but it makes little sense. Like the aforementioned Lions, you need
only look at the Rams' dismal record, namely a 3-16-1 spread log, while failing
to reach 17 pts on 14 occasions since LY, while allowing 38.4 ppg over their
last 7 outings. For example, they led Buffalo 14-6: lost 31-14. Four straight
wins & covers for the 'Skins, with a 649-273 RY edge in those 4. Portis: 266
RYs last 2 weeks (vs Dallas & Philly, no less), & Campbell a force. Rams are
10-22 ATS away vs winning teams, while 'Skins on 8-2 ATS run. Over early.
DENVER 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (4:05) -- Finally a bit of a defensive showing for
the Broncos, who entered their game with the Bucs, off allowing 38, 32, & 33
pts. But just a single TD by Tampa, altho Denver was outrushed at home for
the 1st time. The Broncos are averaging 31 ppg in their last 6 hosters, & rank
#1 in the NFL in total "O". The 'Ville in off being manhandled by Pitt: 415-213
yd & 28-14 FD deficits, altho the Jags did have the lead entering the final 2
minutes. Last 4 J'Ville games have been decided by 4, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so more
of the same here. Broncos 25-15 ATS at home with line between -3 & +3 pts.
Philadelphia 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:15) -- Call similar score to LW's Pat/
49er contest. Check the overwhelming stat advantage of the Patriots: 25-12
FD, & 377-199 yd edges. O'Sullivan: 3 TDs, but also 3 INTs; Gore: from 212
RYs to just 54. This is 3rd of 6 grinders for SanFran, but the Eagles enter this
one off no less than 4 wars, losing the last 2. And note just a FG over the final
52:47 vs the 'Skins (203-58 RY deficit). Thus, a quick chance for redemption,
as well as a return to the right track. The Niners are 2-8 ATS off scoring >20
pts, & losing, & are 12-21 ATS off a spread loss as a dog. Philly bounceback.
Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 23 - (4:15) -- Now or never for the Seahawks, who
have a huge score to settle with the Packers, who administered a 42-20 playoff
pounding LY. As usual, home/away dichotomy in Seattle contests is firmly
entrenched. In their 2 RGs, the 'Hawks have a 78-16 pt deficit, but are at 34.2
ppg in their last 5 hosters. And the homer is 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
Rodgers (shoulder) played for the Pack vs Atlanta, but a crucial INT did them
in. Sure, McCarthy is 8-1 ATS vs opponents off a SU non-division loss, but
have to see Seattle taking advantage of 26th rated Packer defense. Revenge.
SAN DIEGO 29 - New England 15 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Triple revenge shot for the
Chargers, who not only lost to the Pats during the '07 regular season, but also
in the '06 & '07 playoffs. May have been peeking a bit to this one, in LW's 17-
10 loss to the Dolphins, as they had averaged 34.5 ppg in their first 4 games.
And note a current 11-3 ATS run for SD, with 1 of those misses by a single pt.
The Pats are on a 2-8 ATS run, reaching 20 pts in just 1 of their last 5 outings.
A solid showing at SanFran, but Chargers are another matter. They are 13-4
ATS off a SU loss, as well as 16-6 ATS off being upset. Grab this "must-win".
MONDAY
New York Giants 34 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 sure had
classic all-out wars in the old NFL days. Obviously, they are miles apart now, as
the Giants continue to impress. A 523-187 yd edge over Seattle LW, with a 7.1
ypr showing. Eli? Try 65-of-97 the last 3 games. NY has won its last twelve
away games, & is 13-2 ATS away. Brown "D" has held 7 of last 8 opponents <20
pts, but Anderson is just 3/6 for the year. NY is 11-2 away off a SU win of at least
14 pts, while the Browns are 10-16 ATS off a win. Giants rank in the top 8 in all 8
major stat categories, while Cleveland checks in with the worst "O" in the NFL.
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Red Sheet
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 11, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 7
MISSISSIPPI STATE 22 - Vanderbilt 15 - (2:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Pick-em, and is now Vanderbilt
minus 2½. Largest early week line movement here, which mirrors public appreciation of the
resurgent 'Dores, who are off to their best start in 65 years. But the Bulldogs, who have
been somewhat of a disappointment so far, are rested off a close loss to mighty LSU, &
catch Vandy off its draining win over Auburn. The SEC dog, taking on squads off big
games, has been a profitable proposition so far, & this certainly fits in nicely with that trend.
And don't forget the 24 pts that the 'Dogs posted in that loss the Bengals. Upset.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI STATE 89
Air Force 42 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (9:30) --Line opened at AirForce Minus 8½, and is now minus 10.
We originally liked this one, but decided against placing it among our Rated Plays on
Pointwise, because of the fact that the Falcons were in off a triad of exhausting games, not
the least of which was LW's tight loss to Navy. But military squads are never down, psychologically,
so no reason that AF can't get back on track quickly, especially against an Aztec
team which yielded 569 RYs in last year's 55-23 Falcon win. So check last week's SDSt
rushing effort: a 383-(-13) yd deficit vs TCU. Spot is more than reasonable.
RATING: AIR FORCE 89
TEXAS TECH 56 - Nebraska 20 - (3:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 18½, and is now minus 21.
There they are again. The Raiders once more sit atop the nation in overhead production
(439 ypg), with the indomitable Harrell now at 18 TD passes & only 3 interceptions. Tech
exorcised a batch of demons with its ROAD destruction of KansasSt last week, as the
Raiders have had their troubles when venturing from Lubbock. Check 33 FDs & 626 yds in
that 58-28 win (7 Harrell TDs). Certainly worth repeating from our earlier publication, that
this is Huskers' road opener, & they've allowed 52.6 ppg in their last 4 guest shots.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88
ARMY 31 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (1:00) --Line opened at Army minus 2, and is now minus 1. Amazing that
these 2 both won outright as exact-same 20-pt underdogs last week. The Cadets have
turned it up, overland, as they've run for 280 & 291 yds the past couple of weeks, with the
result being an eye-popping Plus 74 Pts ATS in those 2. Last week's 51-pt cover in 44-13
upset of Tulane also snapped a 10-game losing streak for the Army. And as we've already
mentioned with AirForce above, military schools are always emotionally up, so no letdown
from that big win. Spread minimal, & EMich caught in MAC sandwich.
RATING: ARMY 88
OREGON STATE 55 - Washington State 13 - (6:30) --Line opened at OregonSt minus 29, and is now
minus 30. Would you believe the we originally had this one circled as our Top Pointwise
Play? But when the line came out at about a TD more than figured, we decided to table it for
the time being. Afterall, the Beavers were entering off a pair of wrenching contests, with
last week seeing a 28-20 lead with 1:30 left, turning into a 31-28 loss. But they've had an
extra pair of days to shed that one. Rodgers: 287 RYs last 2 games; Moevao: 313 PYs last
week. Have covered last 4 HGs by 80½ pts. Cougars simply can't stop anyone.
RATING: OREGON STATE 88
SAN DIEGO 30 - New England 13 - (8:15 - NBC) --Line opened at SanDiego minus 6, and is still minus 6.
Normally in the NFL, if a play stands out, it is best to ignore it, or go easy, if you must. And
even the most casual fan is aware of the triple revenge aspect to this one. But we simply
cannot let it pass, as not only do the Chargers have the better squad, as long as Brady isn't
on the field, but the fans will be at fever pitch for this Sunday Night affair. New England
knocked SanDiego out of the playoffs the past 2 years, in excruciating fashion (24-21 & 2112),
& despite their dedicated play without Brady, Pats are just up against it.
RATING: SAN DIEGO 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Tulsa, TCU, NotreDame, CentralMichigan -- NFL: Dallas, Oakland, Giants
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Vanderbilt (Pick to -2½); TexasTech (-18½ to -21); LSU
(+6 to +4); NorthTexas (+23½ to +21½); UAB (+20 to +18½); Syracuse (+25 to +23½); Temple (+10 to +9);
TCU (-13 to -14½); NoCarolina (-5½ to -7); Miami-Fla (-14 to -15½); AirForce (-8½ to -10); MiddleTennSt
(+2½ to +1); Hawaii (-5½ to -7) - NFL: Seattle (+1 to -3); Chicago (-1 to -2½); StLouis (+15 to +13½); Balt
(+6½ to +5½); Cincy (+7 to +6); Caro (+3 to +2); Arizona (+6½ to +5½) - TIME CHANGES: Army/EastMich:
now 1:00; Mo/OklaSt: now 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: AirForce QB Smith (virus) ??; ArizSt QB Carpenter (ankle)
??; Cal RB Best (elbow) ??; Cincy QB Pike (arm) out; EastCaro QB Pinkney (ankle) probable; EMich QB
McMahon (shoulder) out; Fresno RB Mathews (knee) ??; Ga RB Moreno (elbow) probable: Ga QB Stafford
(head) probable; Kent RB Jarvis (ankle) ??; L'Ville QB Cantwell (ankle) probable; Minny QB Weber (knee)
probable; NMex RB Ferguson (shoulder) ??; NoCaro QB Yates (ankle) out; NoIllinois QB Nicholson (shoulder)
??; Oregon QB Roper (knee) ??; SDSt QB Lindley (shoulder) doubtful; TCU QB Dalton (knee) probable;
Monroe QB Lancaster (head) ??; USC QB Sanchez (knee) probable; Vandy QB Nickson (shoulder) ??; WVa
QB White (head) probable; NFL: Detroit QB Kitna (back) probable; Houston QB Schaub (flu) probable; Philly
RB Westbrook (ribs) doubtful; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (knee) probable.
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 11, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 7
MISSISSIPPI STATE 22 - Vanderbilt 15 - (2:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Pick-em, and is now Vanderbilt
minus 2½. Largest early week line movement here, which mirrors public appreciation of the
resurgent 'Dores, who are off to their best start in 65 years. But the Bulldogs, who have
been somewhat of a disappointment so far, are rested off a close loss to mighty LSU, &
catch Vandy off its draining win over Auburn. The SEC dog, taking on squads off big
games, has been a profitable proposition so far, & this certainly fits in nicely with that trend.
And don't forget the 24 pts that the 'Dogs posted in that loss the Bengals. Upset.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI STATE 89
Air Force 42 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (9:30) --Line opened at AirForce Minus 8½, and is now minus 10.
We originally liked this one, but decided against placing it among our Rated Plays on
Pointwise, because of the fact that the Falcons were in off a triad of exhausting games, not
the least of which was LW's tight loss to Navy. But military squads are never down, psychologically,
so no reason that AF can't get back on track quickly, especially against an Aztec
team which yielded 569 RYs in last year's 55-23 Falcon win. So check last week's SDSt
rushing effort: a 383-(-13) yd deficit vs TCU. Spot is more than reasonable.
RATING: AIR FORCE 89
TEXAS TECH 56 - Nebraska 20 - (3:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 18½, and is now minus 21.
There they are again. The Raiders once more sit atop the nation in overhead production
(439 ypg), with the indomitable Harrell now at 18 TD passes & only 3 interceptions. Tech
exorcised a batch of demons with its ROAD destruction of KansasSt last week, as the
Raiders have had their troubles when venturing from Lubbock. Check 33 FDs & 626 yds in
that 58-28 win (7 Harrell TDs). Certainly worth repeating from our earlier publication, that
this is Huskers' road opener, & they've allowed 52.6 ppg in their last 4 guest shots.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88
ARMY 31 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (1:00) --Line opened at Army minus 2, and is now minus 1. Amazing that
these 2 both won outright as exact-same 20-pt underdogs last week. The Cadets have
turned it up, overland, as they've run for 280 & 291 yds the past couple of weeks, with the
result being an eye-popping Plus 74 Pts ATS in those 2. Last week's 51-pt cover in 44-13
upset of Tulane also snapped a 10-game losing streak for the Army. And as we've already
mentioned with AirForce above, military schools are always emotionally up, so no letdown
from that big win. Spread minimal, & EMich caught in MAC sandwich.
RATING: ARMY 88
OREGON STATE 55 - Washington State 13 - (6:30) --Line opened at OregonSt minus 29, and is now
minus 30. Would you believe the we originally had this one circled as our Top Pointwise
Play? But when the line came out at about a TD more than figured, we decided to table it for
the time being. Afterall, the Beavers were entering off a pair of wrenching contests, with
last week seeing a 28-20 lead with 1:30 left, turning into a 31-28 loss. But they've had an
extra pair of days to shed that one. Rodgers: 287 RYs last 2 games; Moevao: 313 PYs last
week. Have covered last 4 HGs by 80½ pts. Cougars simply can't stop anyone.
RATING: OREGON STATE 88
SAN DIEGO 30 - New England 13 - (8:15 - NBC) --Line opened at SanDiego minus 6, and is still minus 6.
Normally in the NFL, if a play stands out, it is best to ignore it, or go easy, if you must. And
even the most casual fan is aware of the triple revenge aspect to this one. But we simply
cannot let it pass, as not only do the Chargers have the better squad, as long as Brady isn't
on the field, but the fans will be at fever pitch for this Sunday Night affair. New England
knocked SanDiego out of the playoffs the past 2 years, in excruciating fashion (24-21 & 2112),
& despite their dedicated play without Brady, Pats are just up against it.
RATING: SAN DIEGO 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Tulsa, TCU, NotreDame, CentralMichigan -- NFL: Dallas, Oakland, Giants
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Vanderbilt (Pick to -2½); TexasTech (-18½ to -21); LSU
(+6 to +4); NorthTexas (+23½ to +21½); UAB (+20 to +18½); Syracuse (+25 to +23½); Temple (+10 to +9);
TCU (-13 to -14½); NoCarolina (-5½ to -7); Miami-Fla (-14 to -15½); AirForce (-8½ to -10); MiddleTennSt
(+2½ to +1); Hawaii (-5½ to -7) - NFL: Seattle (+1 to -3); Chicago (-1 to -2½); StLouis (+15 to +13½); Balt
(+6½ to +5½); Cincy (+7 to +6); Caro (+3 to +2); Arizona (+6½ to +5½) - TIME CHANGES: Army/EastMich:
now 1:00; Mo/OklaSt: now 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: AirForce QB Smith (virus) ??; ArizSt QB Carpenter (ankle)
??; Cal RB Best (elbow) ??; Cincy QB Pike (arm) out; EastCaro QB Pinkney (ankle) probable; EMich QB
McMahon (shoulder) out; Fresno RB Mathews (knee) ??; Ga RB Moreno (elbow) probable: Ga QB Stafford
(head) probable; Kent RB Jarvis (ankle) ??; L'Ville QB Cantwell (ankle) probable; Minny QB Weber (knee)
probable; NMex RB Ferguson (shoulder) ??; NoCaro QB Yates (ankle) out; NoIllinois QB Nicholson (shoulder)
??; Oregon QB Roper (knee) ??; SDSt QB Lindley (shoulder) doubtful; TCU QB Dalton (knee) probable;
Monroe QB Lancaster (head) ??; USC QB Sanchez (knee) probable; Vandy QB Nickson (shoulder) ??; WVa
QB White (head) probable; NFL: Detroit QB Kitna (back) probable; Houston QB Schaub (flu) probable; Philly
RB Westbrook (ribs) doubtful; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (knee) probable.
GOLDSHEET EXTRA - NCAA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
SOUTH CAROLINA
Series trends have a way of enduring in the SEC, which is why
re-energized South Carolina looks to be a worthwhile recommendation
for its Saturday date at Lexington against Kentucky.
Recent meetings have certainly favored the Gamecocks, who
have won and covered all three meetings since HC Steve Spurrier
took over in 2005. USC has performed admirably on the road for
the ‘ol ball coach, standing 11-4-1 vs. the line as visitor since ‘05,
and if the Cocks are getting any points, note their 8-2-1 road dog
mark under Spurrier.
UCLA
UCLA isn’t earning many style points this season, but the
Bruins have begun a mild comeback, covering their last two, and
look to continue their ascent Saturday at Autzen Stadium when
traveling to face Oregon. The Bruins have been one of the
nation’s best underdogs lately, standing 12-2 their last 14 as the
“short,” and are a noteworthy 35-18-2 overall vs. the number since
early in the 2004 season. The Bruins are also featured recommendations
in both the Power Underdogs and College Coach as
Underdog (with HC Rick Neuheisel) systems this week.
NEVADA
Get out of the way! That’s the best recommendation we have for
upcoming opponents of Nevada, which has picked up a lot of
momentum in recent weeks and looks to extend its uptick Saturday
at Mackay Stadium when welcoming New Mexico State to Reno.
The Wolf Pack is hot, reflected in its noteworthy +8.25 “AFS”
(“Away from Spread”) number its past two games. And Nevada has
been an extremely reliable chalk proposition in Reno since HC
Chris Ault returned to the sidelines in 2004, recording a stellar 13-
2 mark laying points at home since. Meanwhile, the Aggies aren’t
about to scare anyone these days when playing away from Las
Cruces, as they’re only 5-13 as a road dog since HC Hal Mumme
arrived in 2005.
TEXAS TECH
We can’t blame Nebraska for playing so many games at home
this season. After all, the Cornhuskers haven’t traveled well
lately, covering just 1 of their last 9 (1-7-1 vs. number) away from
Lincoln. And this week’s trip to Lubbock to face potent Texas
Tech might have Nebraska wishing it didn’t leave home at all,
especially considering the Red Raiders’ 21-10 spread mark their
last 31 at home, and 16-8 record laying double digits since 2003.
The Huskers’ recent performances aren’t too encouraging, either,
dropping their last 2 against the line while recording a poor -18.25
“AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number in those outings, while the Red
Raiders are a solid +11.25 “AFS” their last two games
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST (Thursday, October 9)...Wake
had covered 4 straight in series prior to LY’s 44-10 loss at Death
Valley. But if Tommy B. a dog note 8-0 spread mark as short since
’05, 15-4 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, if
dog, based on team trends.
UAB at HOUSTON (Thursday, October 9)...UAB just 3-7 vs. line
last 10 on board since mid ’07, including 49-10 home loss LY vs.
Houston. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on extended UAB
negatives.
LOUISVILLE at MEMPHIS (Friday, October 10)...Cards now 2-8
as chalk (0-2 TY) since Kragthorpe arrived LY. Dog team is 11-3 vs.
line in Card games since LY. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,
based on recent Card chalk woes.
EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...ECU no covers last 3 TY. Skip 0-
2 vs. line as visitor TY after 14-4 mark in role previous 3 seasons. Skip
has now failed to cover his last 3 as visiting chalk, but still 28-14 vs.
line at ECU since ’05. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU has covered 6 of last 7
meetings. Cuse has actually fared a bit better as road dog (7-9 in role)
than home dog (4-9) vs. spread since Robinson took over in ’05, but
Orange still 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edge-slight to
WVU, based on Cuse negatives.
IOWA at INDIANA...Indiana has won and covered last 2 in underdog
fashion vs. Iowa. Iowa also no covers last 8 as visiting chalk.
But Hoosiers 0-4 vs. line TY. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based
on recent Indiana woes.
MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...Gophers have covered their last 4 on
board TY, and have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 as visitor dating
to late LY. Minnesota has also covered last 4 as underdog dating to late
LY. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Spartans have covered
7 of their last 9 away from home. NU, however, has covered the last
4 in series, and Cats are 7-3 vs. line as home dog since ’05. Tech
edge-NU, based on series trends.
TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (at Dallas)... Mack has covered last 3 in
series (although he lost SU LY) after Stoops had covered previous
5 meetings. Stoops now 23-11-1 vs. spread last 35 on board since
late ‘05. If Mack a dog note 3-0 mark in rare role since ’05. Tech edgeslight
to OU, based on recent trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARMY...EMU 5-12 vs. number last 17 on
board. Black Knights own 2-game cover streak! Tech edge-slight
to Army, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...If Bears favored note 6-2 mark in rare
role since ’05 (1-0 TY). Chizik 8-4 vs. line as dog since LY (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on recent trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Spurrier has won and covered
the last 3 years vs. UK. If Cocks a dog, note 5-1-1 mark in role
on road since ’06, 8-2-1 since ’05. Tech edge-SC, especially if
dog, based on team trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Turner Gill 4-1 vs. line TY,
now 9-3 vs. line last 12 on boaard. Tech edge-slight to Buffalo,
based on recent trends.
VANDERBILT at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Sly Croom 1-0 vs. line at
home TY but just 3-9 vs. line at Starkville since ’06 and 5-12 vs. spread
as host since ’05. Vandy now 4-1 vs. line last 5 as chalk dating to
mid ’06, and 13-4 vs. line 17 as visitor, as well as 5-0 vs. line TY. Tech
edge-Vandy, based on team trends.
UTAH at WYOMING...Wyo no covers first 5 on board TY, now 0-
12 vs. line last 12, 0-13-1 last 14 on board.! Utes 7-2 as DD chalk since
’06 (2-0 in role away), now 17-5-1 laying DDs since ’03. Tech edge-
Utah, based on Wyo negatives.
KANSAS STATE at TEXAS A&M...If A&M a dog note 3-8 mark last
11 in role since late ’06. Ags also 0-3 vs. line at Kyle Field TY for Mike
Sherman, and 5-12 overall vs. number last 17 on board. K-State,
however, poor 0-7 as road chalk since ’04. Tech edge-slight to
KSU, based on recent A&M woes.
TEMPLE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 10-3-2 vs. line at home
since ’05. Chips also 15-6-2 vs. line as chalk since ’05 (0-1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Tiller just 1-5-1 vs. line last 7 since late
LY. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on recent Purdue woes.
TCU at COLORADO STATE...Frogs have won and covered handily
last 3 since joining MWC in ’05, and have won and covered 4 straight
in series dating to ’02 Liberty Bowl. Frogs have covered first 2 as
road chalk TY after failing all 3 tries in role LY. TCU also 7-1 its last
8 as chalk. Tech edge-TCU, based on series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at MISSOURI...Gundy only 6-7 as dog since
’06 but he has covered 5 straight since late LY. Gundy 0-5 as DD dog
since ’05, and Cowboys 0-7 in role since ’03. Pinkel 15-3-1 last 19
on board since late ’06, also 12-3 last 15 as chalk. Tech edge-slight
to Mizzou, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Big revenge for Georgia after getting
whipped the last two years by Vols. Road team was 5-0-1 vs. line
last 6 in series prior to LY. Vols only 3-3-1 as dog since LY but 14-
8-1 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Tennessee, based on
team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Dennis Erickson 0-5 vs. line
as dog since arriving at ASU LY. Tech edge-SC, based on ASU
dog woes.
UCLA at OREGON...“Short” has covered 5 of last 6 meetings.
Bellotti 14-4 as Autzen chalk since ’05, 9-2 laying DDs at home that
span. Bruins, however, 12-2 their last 14 as dog, and 35-18-1 vs.
line their last 54 on board. Tech edge- UCLA, based on team and
series dog trends.
TOLEDO at MICHIGAN...Amstutz 4-15 vs. line as visitor since ’05
(1-1 TY). Rockets also 1-11 vs. line last 12 as non-MAC visitor. But
Wolverines only 2-10 vs. line last 12 as non-Big Ten host. Tech edgeslight
to UM, based on team trends.
NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA...Weis only 5-9 as dog since
close loss to SC in ’05, 12-21-1 overall vs. line last 34 on board. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Petrino no covers first 4 TY, although
road team has covered last 3 in series. Tigers have failed to cover
their last 5 TY, and 6-11 vs. spread as Jordan-Hare chalk since ’06. Tech
edge-slight to Auburn, based on recent Razorback woes.
NEW MEXICO STATE at NEVADA...Mumme only 5-13 as road dog
with Aggies since arriving in ’05 (2-6 since LY). Ault 19-8 as chalk
(13-2 as Reno chalk) since reappearing on Nevada sidelines in ’04,
and 7-1 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-Nevada, based on
team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU 4-0 vs. line for new HC
Jerry Kill! Huskies have now covered their last 7 on board. RedHawks
have covered last 4 as MAC road dog but just 1-4 vs. line last 5 on
board overall. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO at BYU...Visitor has covered last 6 meetings!
Rocky, however, only 1-5 his last 6 as dog, and Cougs 10-3 vs.
line last 13 as home chalk. Tech edge-slight to BYU, based on
recent team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE... Cougs no covers first
5 TY, and have only covered 1 of last 8 against Beavers. Wazzu also
just 2-7 vs. number last 8 as visitor. Riley 8-2 vs. line last 10 at
Corvallis, and 4-0 as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-OSU, based
on team and series trends.
ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree has covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
Cardinal has also won and covered last 3 as host since late LY. Cats
4-1 vs. number TY, all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based
on series trends.
BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...Falcs 3-0 vs. line away TY and 8-
2 vs. number on road since LY. Zips, however, are 7-1-1 vs. line last
9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on
team trends.
OHIO at KENT STATE…Kent State 1-11 last 12 vs. line! Road team
has covered last 3 meetings, and Ohio U 16-6-1 vs. line last 23 reg.-
season games. Tech edge-Ohio, based on team and recent
series trends.
RUTGERS at CINCINNATI...Cincy has won outright the last 2 years
as a dog. Bearcats 5-1 vs. line at home under Kelly, and Cincy now
10-2 vs. spread last 12 as host since ’06. Brian Kelly teams 12-1-1
vs. line last 14 as host. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series and
team trends.
NEBRASKA at TEXAS TECH...Callahan’s Huskers were 1-7-1 vs.
line their last 9 away from Lincoln, and 1-4 as visiting dog last 2 years.
Leach 3-0 vs. line TY and 21-10 vs. number last 31 as host. Tech
edge-TT, based on team trends.
COLORADO at KANSAS...CU only 2-8 as dog since LY and 4-12-
1 vs. number as short since Hawkins arrived in ’06. Tech edge-KU,
based on team trends.
PENN STATE at WISCONSIN...Home team in control of recent
meetings, winning and covering last 4 and 6-1 vs. line last 7. Shades
just 3-8-1 vs. line as visitor since ’06. If Shades a dog note 1-5 mark
in role since ’06. Badgers 16-8-1 vs. number last 25 at Camp Randall.
Tech edge-Wisconsin, based on series trends.
UCF at MIAMI-FLORIDA...UCF no covers first 2 away TY and now
no covers 4 of last 5 away from Orlando. Miami, however, continues
to struggle as home chalk under Shannon (0-2 TY, 2-7 since Shannon
took over LY, 10-26 vs. spread last 36 in role). Tech edge-slight
to UCF, based on Miami’s extended home chalk woes.
LSU at FLORIDA...Gators have covered last 3, 4 of last 5, and
7 of last 9 in series. LSU only 3-9-2 vs. number last 14 on board,
and 3-6-1 last 10 as visitor. Urban Meyer 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host
(all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on series
trends.
UTAH STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU dynamite lately at home
5-0 vs. line at Spartan Stadium since LY, covers in last 9, and 10-1
vs. line as host. Spartans also 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-SJSU, based on team trends.
TULSA at SMU...Tulsa on fire, covering last 5 on board since late
LY. Ponies 0-7 vs. line as host since LY (0-1 in ’08). Tech edge-
Tulsa, based on recent trends.
BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Broncos just 3-7 favored
away from blue carpet since ’06). USM has covered first 2 as dog
TY after 1-6 mark in role previous two seasons for Bower. Tech
edge-slight to USM, based on team trends.
TULANE at UTEP...If Miners chalk, note 1-13 spread mark last 14
in role. Tech edge-Tulane, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Chuck Long actually 7-2 vs. line
last 9 vs. number at Qualcomm! Aztecs also 4-2 last 6 as home dog.
Force, however, 12-4 vs. spread for HC Calhoun. Tech edgeslight
to AFA, based on team trends.
IDAHO at FRESNO STATE...FSU dominant lately, winning and
covering handily the last 3 meetings. Vandals 0-5 vs. line TY and now
1-13 vs. number last 14 on board. Tech edge-Fresno, based on
Idaho negatives.
LA TECH at HAWAII...Home team has covered the last 4 meetings.
Tech edge-slight to UH, based on series trends
.
BALL STATE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Ball 5-0 vs. line TY, now
16-5 vs. spread last 21 on board. Tech edge-Ball State, based
on team trends.
UL-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE...ULM has covered the last 3
meetings. ASU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 as chalk. Tech edge-ULM,
based on series and team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at FLA. INTERNATIONAL...Golden
Panthers have covered 5 of last 6 on board since late LY. Tech
edge-slight to FIU, based on recent trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at NORTH TEXASU...Todd Dodge 5-11 vs. line
since LY, and UNT 12-27-2 vs. line last 41 on board. Tech edge-
ULL, based on recent UNT negatives
SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Western Kentucky,
BYU over New Mexico@, CINCINNATI over Rutgers, EAST CAROLINA
over Virginia@, KANSAS over Colorado, MICHIGAN STATE
over Northwestern@, MISSOURI over Oklahoma State, OHIO STATE
over Purdue@, OREGON over Ucla@, TCU over Colorado State.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE
FOREST game (10/09), UL-MONROE over Arkansas State, NEW
MEXICO over Byu@, UCLA over Oregon@.
RIVALRY DOGS-TEXAS over Oklahoma.
POWER UNDERDOGS-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE FOREST game
(10/09), ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, LSU over Florida@,
SOUTHERN MISS over Boise State, TENNESSEE over Georgia@,
TEXAS over Oklahoma, UCLA over Oregon@, and dog in PENN
STATE-WISCONSIN and SOUTH CAROLINA-KENTUCKY games.
PAINFUL MEMORY-ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, GEORGIA
over Tennessee@, OREGON over Ucla@, WISCONSIN over
Penn State.
POWER REVENGE-GEORGIA over Tennessee@, TEXAS over
Oklahoma, WISCONSIN over Penn State.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Temple,
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-Dog in EASTERN MICHIGAN-ARMY
game.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-HOUSTON over Uab
(10/09), EASTERN MICHIGAN overe Army@, HAWAII over La Tech,
SYRACUSE over West Virginia, UCF over Miami-Fla., VIRGINIA
over East Carolina@; off pointspread loss-NEW MEXICO over Byu,
NORTHWESTERN over Michigan State@, ARIZONA over Stanford.
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TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
SOUTH CAROLINA
Series trends have a way of enduring in the SEC, which is why
re-energized South Carolina looks to be a worthwhile recommendation
for its Saturday date at Lexington against Kentucky.
Recent meetings have certainly favored the Gamecocks, who
have won and covered all three meetings since HC Steve Spurrier
took over in 2005. USC has performed admirably on the road for
the ‘ol ball coach, standing 11-4-1 vs. the line as visitor since ‘05,
and if the Cocks are getting any points, note their 8-2-1 road dog
mark under Spurrier.
UCLA
UCLA isn’t earning many style points this season, but the
Bruins have begun a mild comeback, covering their last two, and
look to continue their ascent Saturday at Autzen Stadium when
traveling to face Oregon. The Bruins have been one of the
nation’s best underdogs lately, standing 12-2 their last 14 as the
“short,” and are a noteworthy 35-18-2 overall vs. the number since
early in the 2004 season. The Bruins are also featured recommendations
in both the Power Underdogs and College Coach as
Underdog (with HC Rick Neuheisel) systems this week.
NEVADA
Get out of the way! That’s the best recommendation we have for
upcoming opponents of Nevada, which has picked up a lot of
momentum in recent weeks and looks to extend its uptick Saturday
at Mackay Stadium when welcoming New Mexico State to Reno.
The Wolf Pack is hot, reflected in its noteworthy +8.25 “AFS”
(“Away from Spread”) number its past two games. And Nevada has
been an extremely reliable chalk proposition in Reno since HC
Chris Ault returned to the sidelines in 2004, recording a stellar 13-
2 mark laying points at home since. Meanwhile, the Aggies aren’t
about to scare anyone these days when playing away from Las
Cruces, as they’re only 5-13 as a road dog since HC Hal Mumme
arrived in 2005.
TEXAS TECH
We can’t blame Nebraska for playing so many games at home
this season. After all, the Cornhuskers haven’t traveled well
lately, covering just 1 of their last 9 (1-7-1 vs. number) away from
Lincoln. And this week’s trip to Lubbock to face potent Texas
Tech might have Nebraska wishing it didn’t leave home at all,
especially considering the Red Raiders’ 21-10 spread mark their
last 31 at home, and 16-8 record laying double digits since 2003.
The Huskers’ recent performances aren’t too encouraging, either,
dropping their last 2 against the line while recording a poor -18.25
“AFS” (“Away from Spread”) number in those outings, while the Red
Raiders are a solid +11.25 “AFS” their last two games
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST (Thursday, October 9)...Wake
had covered 4 straight in series prior to LY’s 44-10 loss at Death
Valley. But if Tommy B. a dog note 8-0 spread mark as short since
’05, 15-4 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, if
dog, based on team trends.
UAB at HOUSTON (Thursday, October 9)...UAB just 3-7 vs. line
last 10 on board since mid ’07, including 49-10 home loss LY vs.
Houston. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on extended UAB
negatives.
LOUISVILLE at MEMPHIS (Friday, October 10)...Cards now 2-8
as chalk (0-2 TY) since Kragthorpe arrived LY. Dog team is 11-3 vs.
line in Card games since LY. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,
based on recent Card chalk woes.
EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...ECU no covers last 3 TY. Skip 0-
2 vs. line as visitor TY after 14-4 mark in role previous 3 seasons. Skip
has now failed to cover his last 3 as visiting chalk, but still 28-14 vs.
line at ECU since ’05. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU has covered 6 of last 7
meetings. Cuse has actually fared a bit better as road dog (7-9 in role)
than home dog (4-9) vs. spread since Robinson took over in ’05, but
Orange still 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edge-slight to
WVU, based on Cuse negatives.
IOWA at INDIANA...Indiana has won and covered last 2 in underdog
fashion vs. Iowa. Iowa also no covers last 8 as visiting chalk.
But Hoosiers 0-4 vs. line TY. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based
on recent Indiana woes.
MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...Gophers have covered their last 4 on
board TY, and have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 as visitor dating
to late LY. Minnesota has also covered last 4 as underdog dating to late
LY. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Spartans have covered
7 of their last 9 away from home. NU, however, has covered the last
4 in series, and Cats are 7-3 vs. line as home dog since ’05. Tech
edge-NU, based on series trends.
TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (at Dallas)... Mack has covered last 3 in
series (although he lost SU LY) after Stoops had covered previous
5 meetings. Stoops now 23-11-1 vs. spread last 35 on board since
late ‘05. If Mack a dog note 3-0 mark in rare role since ’05. Tech edgeslight
to OU, based on recent trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARMY...EMU 5-12 vs. number last 17 on
board. Black Knights own 2-game cover streak! Tech edge-slight
to Army, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...If Bears favored note 6-2 mark in rare
role since ’05 (1-0 TY). Chizik 8-4 vs. line as dog since LY (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on recent trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Spurrier has won and covered
the last 3 years vs. UK. If Cocks a dog, note 5-1-1 mark in role
on road since ’06, 8-2-1 since ’05. Tech edge-SC, especially if
dog, based on team trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Turner Gill 4-1 vs. line TY,
now 9-3 vs. line last 12 on boaard. Tech edge-slight to Buffalo,
based on recent trends.
VANDERBILT at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Sly Croom 1-0 vs. line at
home TY but just 3-9 vs. line at Starkville since ’06 and 5-12 vs. spread
as host since ’05. Vandy now 4-1 vs. line last 5 as chalk dating to
mid ’06, and 13-4 vs. line 17 as visitor, as well as 5-0 vs. line TY. Tech
edge-Vandy, based on team trends.
UTAH at WYOMING...Wyo no covers first 5 on board TY, now 0-
12 vs. line last 12, 0-13-1 last 14 on board.! Utes 7-2 as DD chalk since
’06 (2-0 in role away), now 17-5-1 laying DDs since ’03. Tech edge-
Utah, based on Wyo negatives.
KANSAS STATE at TEXAS A&M...If A&M a dog note 3-8 mark last
11 in role since late ’06. Ags also 0-3 vs. line at Kyle Field TY for Mike
Sherman, and 5-12 overall vs. number last 17 on board. K-State,
however, poor 0-7 as road chalk since ’04. Tech edge-slight to
KSU, based on recent A&M woes.
TEMPLE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 10-3-2 vs. line at home
since ’05. Chips also 15-6-2 vs. line as chalk since ’05 (0-1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Tiller just 1-5-1 vs. line last 7 since late
LY. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on recent Purdue woes.
TCU at COLORADO STATE...Frogs have won and covered handily
last 3 since joining MWC in ’05, and have won and covered 4 straight
in series dating to ’02 Liberty Bowl. Frogs have covered first 2 as
road chalk TY after failing all 3 tries in role LY. TCU also 7-1 its last
8 as chalk. Tech edge-TCU, based on series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at MISSOURI...Gundy only 6-7 as dog since
’06 but he has covered 5 straight since late LY. Gundy 0-5 as DD dog
since ’05, and Cowboys 0-7 in role since ’03. Pinkel 15-3-1 last 19
on board since late ’06, also 12-3 last 15 as chalk. Tech edge-slight
to Mizzou, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Big revenge for Georgia after getting
whipped the last two years by Vols. Road team was 5-0-1 vs. line
last 6 in series prior to LY. Vols only 3-3-1 as dog since LY but 14-
8-1 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Tennessee, based on
team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Dennis Erickson 0-5 vs. line
as dog since arriving at ASU LY. Tech edge-SC, based on ASU
dog woes.
UCLA at OREGON...“Short” has covered 5 of last 6 meetings.
Bellotti 14-4 as Autzen chalk since ’05, 9-2 laying DDs at home that
span. Bruins, however, 12-2 their last 14 as dog, and 35-18-1 vs.
line their last 54 on board. Tech edge- UCLA, based on team and
series dog trends.
TOLEDO at MICHIGAN...Amstutz 4-15 vs. line as visitor since ’05
(1-1 TY). Rockets also 1-11 vs. line last 12 as non-MAC visitor. But
Wolverines only 2-10 vs. line last 12 as non-Big Ten host. Tech edgeslight
to UM, based on team trends.
NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA...Weis only 5-9 as dog since
close loss to SC in ’05, 12-21-1 overall vs. line last 34 on board. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Petrino no covers first 4 TY, although
road team has covered last 3 in series. Tigers have failed to cover
their last 5 TY, and 6-11 vs. spread as Jordan-Hare chalk since ’06. Tech
edge-slight to Auburn, based on recent Razorback woes.
NEW MEXICO STATE at NEVADA...Mumme only 5-13 as road dog
with Aggies since arriving in ’05 (2-6 since LY). Ault 19-8 as chalk
(13-2 as Reno chalk) since reappearing on Nevada sidelines in ’04,
and 7-1 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-Nevada, based on
team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU 4-0 vs. line for new HC
Jerry Kill! Huskies have now covered their last 7 on board. RedHawks
have covered last 4 as MAC road dog but just 1-4 vs. line last 5 on
board overall. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO at BYU...Visitor has covered last 6 meetings!
Rocky, however, only 1-5 his last 6 as dog, and Cougs 10-3 vs.
line last 13 as home chalk. Tech edge-slight to BYU, based on
recent team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE... Cougs no covers first
5 TY, and have only covered 1 of last 8 against Beavers. Wazzu also
just 2-7 vs. number last 8 as visitor. Riley 8-2 vs. line last 10 at
Corvallis, and 4-0 as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-OSU, based
on team and series trends.
ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree has covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
Cardinal has also won and covered last 3 as host since late LY. Cats
4-1 vs. number TY, all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based
on series trends.
BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...Falcs 3-0 vs. line away TY and 8-
2 vs. number on road since LY. Zips, however, are 7-1-1 vs. line last
9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on
team trends.
OHIO at KENT STATE…Kent State 1-11 last 12 vs. line! Road team
has covered last 3 meetings, and Ohio U 16-6-1 vs. line last 23 reg.-
season games. Tech edge-Ohio, based on team and recent
series trends.
RUTGERS at CINCINNATI...Cincy has won outright the last 2 years
as a dog. Bearcats 5-1 vs. line at home under Kelly, and Cincy now
10-2 vs. spread last 12 as host since ’06. Brian Kelly teams 12-1-1
vs. line last 14 as host. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series and
team trends.
NEBRASKA at TEXAS TECH...Callahan’s Huskers were 1-7-1 vs.
line their last 9 away from Lincoln, and 1-4 as visiting dog last 2 years.
Leach 3-0 vs. line TY and 21-10 vs. number last 31 as host. Tech
edge-TT, based on team trends.
COLORADO at KANSAS...CU only 2-8 as dog since LY and 4-12-
1 vs. number as short since Hawkins arrived in ’06. Tech edge-KU,
based on team trends.
PENN STATE at WISCONSIN...Home team in control of recent
meetings, winning and covering last 4 and 6-1 vs. line last 7. Shades
just 3-8-1 vs. line as visitor since ’06. If Shades a dog note 1-5 mark
in role since ’06. Badgers 16-8-1 vs. number last 25 at Camp Randall.
Tech edge-Wisconsin, based on series trends.
UCF at MIAMI-FLORIDA...UCF no covers first 2 away TY and now
no covers 4 of last 5 away from Orlando. Miami, however, continues
to struggle as home chalk under Shannon (0-2 TY, 2-7 since Shannon
took over LY, 10-26 vs. spread last 36 in role). Tech edge-slight
to UCF, based on Miami’s extended home chalk woes.
LSU at FLORIDA...Gators have covered last 3, 4 of last 5, and
7 of last 9 in series. LSU only 3-9-2 vs. number last 14 on board,
and 3-6-1 last 10 as visitor. Urban Meyer 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host
(all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on series
trends.
UTAH STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU dynamite lately at home
5-0 vs. line at Spartan Stadium since LY, covers in last 9, and 10-1
vs. line as host. Spartans also 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-SJSU, based on team trends.
TULSA at SMU...Tulsa on fire, covering last 5 on board since late
LY. Ponies 0-7 vs. line as host since LY (0-1 in ’08). Tech edge-
Tulsa, based on recent trends.
BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Broncos just 3-7 favored
away from blue carpet since ’06). USM has covered first 2 as dog
TY after 1-6 mark in role previous two seasons for Bower. Tech
edge-slight to USM, based on team trends.
TULANE at UTEP...If Miners chalk, note 1-13 spread mark last 14
in role. Tech edge-Tulane, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Chuck Long actually 7-2 vs. line
last 9 vs. number at Qualcomm! Aztecs also 4-2 last 6 as home dog.
Force, however, 12-4 vs. spread for HC Calhoun. Tech edgeslight
to AFA, based on team trends.
IDAHO at FRESNO STATE...FSU dominant lately, winning and
covering handily the last 3 meetings. Vandals 0-5 vs. line TY and now
1-13 vs. number last 14 on board. Tech edge-Fresno, based on
Idaho negatives.
LA TECH at HAWAII...Home team has covered the last 4 meetings.
Tech edge-slight to UH, based on series trends
.
BALL STATE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Ball 5-0 vs. line TY, now
16-5 vs. spread last 21 on board. Tech edge-Ball State, based
on team trends.
UL-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE...ULM has covered the last 3
meetings. ASU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 as chalk. Tech edge-ULM,
based on series and team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at FLA. INTERNATIONAL...Golden
Panthers have covered 5 of last 6 on board since late LY. Tech
edge-slight to FIU, based on recent trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at NORTH TEXASU...Todd Dodge 5-11 vs. line
since LY, and UNT 12-27-2 vs. line last 41 on board. Tech edge-
ULL, based on recent UNT negatives
SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Western Kentucky,
BYU over New Mexico@, CINCINNATI over Rutgers, EAST CAROLINA
over Virginia@, KANSAS over Colorado, MICHIGAN STATE
over Northwestern@, MISSOURI over Oklahoma State, OHIO STATE
over Purdue@, OREGON over Ucla@, TCU over Colorado State.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE
FOREST game (10/09), UL-MONROE over Arkansas State, NEW
MEXICO over Byu@, UCLA over Oregon@.
RIVALRY DOGS-TEXAS over Oklahoma.
POWER UNDERDOGS-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE FOREST game
(10/09), ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, LSU over Florida@,
SOUTHERN MISS over Boise State, TENNESSEE over Georgia@,
TEXAS over Oklahoma, UCLA over Oregon@, and dog in PENN
STATE-WISCONSIN and SOUTH CAROLINA-KENTUCKY games.
PAINFUL MEMORY-ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, GEORGIA
over Tennessee@, OREGON over Ucla@, WISCONSIN over
Penn State.
POWER REVENGE-GEORGIA over Tennessee@, TEXAS over
Oklahoma, WISCONSIN over Penn State.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Temple,
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-Dog in EASTERN MICHIGAN-ARMY
game.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-HOUSTON over Uab
(10/09), EASTERN MICHIGAN overe Army@, HAWAII over La Tech,
SYRACUSE over West Virginia, UCF over Miami-Fla., VIRGINIA
over East Carolina@; off pointspread loss-NEW MEXICO over Byu,
NORTHWESTERN over Michigan State@, ARIZONA over Stanford.
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THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA - NFL
CAROLINA
Series and team trends favor Carolina when the Panthers
travel to Tampa Bay for an NFC South showdown against the Bucs
Sunday afternoon. Raymond James Stadium certainly hasn’t
spooked Carolina, which has won five straight off Dale Mabry
Highway (covering 4 of those). And the Panthers have been one
of the NFL’s most-accomplished underdogs this decade, especially
so away from home, where they’ve recorded a 21-8-2 spread mark
their last 31 when receiving points. That’s also why Carolina is a
featured recommendation (along with HC John Fox) in the NFL
Coach as Underdog system this week.
OAKLAND at NEW ORLEANS...Raiders have covered their first 2
as visitor TY. They’re also “over” 3-1 TY and “over” 13-6-1 since ‘07.
Saints have won and covered first two as host in ‘08, and now “over”
16-6-1 last 23 on board. Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals”
trends.
BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens “over” 6-3-1 their last 10
as visitor. Colts 0-2 SU and vs. line in Lucas Oil Stadium, though “over”
in both. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Ravens, based on
“totals” and recent team trends.
CINCINNATI at NY JETS...Bengals now “under” 8-3 last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Mangini 2-1 as chalk TY, and throwing out LY’s 0-3-1 chalk
mark, Jets 6-2-1 laying points since ‘06 for Mangini. Tech edge-
“Under” and slight to Jets, based on recent team and
“totals” trends.
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY...Panthers have won last 5 trips to
Raymond James Stadium, covering 4 of those. If Carolina a dog note
Fox’s 20-8-2 spread mark last 30 in role. Gruden “over” 8-3 last 11
dating to late ‘07. Tech edge-Panthers and “over,” based on
series, team, and “totals” trends.
DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Vikes 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Lions 2-8 vs. line away since LY, 4-14 since ‘06. They’re also
“over” 14-5 last 19 as visitor (1-1 TY). Tech edge-Vikings and
“over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
CHICAGO at ATLANTA...Falcs “over” first 2 at Georgia Dome TY,
now “over” 8-2 last 10 as host. Bears “over” 27-14-1 last 42 on board.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.
MIAMI at HOUSTON...Dolphins “over” 6-3 last 9 since late ‘07,
Texans “over” first 3 TY, now “over” 16-7-1 last 24 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON...Rams 5-15 vs. line since ‘07, 2-7 that
span as road dog. Rams also “under” 7-3 away since ‘07. Tech
edge-Skins and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals”
trends.
JACKSONVILLE at DENVER...Broncos “over” 4-1 TY, now “over”
20-6 last 26 since late ‘06, and “over” 13-3 last 16 at Invesco Field.
JV “over” 11-2 its last 13 on road. If Jags a dog note 7-2 mark on road
in role since ‘07. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Jags, if dog,
based on “totals” and team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Birds 12-6-1 vs. line on road
since ‘06, but note Andy Reid just 4-12-1 vs. number last 17 as chalk
(0-1 TY). Niners now “under” 8-3 last 11 at Candlestick since LY.
Tech edge-slight to “under” and 49ers, based on “totals”
and team trends.
DALLAS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 7-3 vs. line as host since
becoming Cards’ HC in ‘07, and 2-0 as home dog that span. Cards
5-2 as home dog since ‘06. Cards “over” 19-7 last 26 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-slight to Cards and “over,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
GREEN BAY at SEATTLE...Pack “over” 4-1 TY, “over” 18-5 since
‘07. Seattle “over” first 4 TY, now “over" last 7 and 9 of last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Holmgren also 19-9-1 vs. line at home since ‘05 (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals”
trends.
NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO...Belichick 5-1 as dog since ‘06, 24-
11-1 in role last 36 as dog overall. Tech edge-slight to Patriots,
based on Belichick dog mark.
NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (Monday, October 13)...Eli has won
last 12 SU away from home, and Giants have covered 9 straight and
11 of 12 away from home. Romeo “under” last 5 by Lake Erie. Tech
edge-Giants and slight to “under,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS A UNDERDOG-CAROLINA over Tampa Bay@, NEW
ENGLAND over San Diego, and dog in J'VILLE-DENVER game.
FAMILIARITY-TAMPA BAY over Carolina@.
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-DALLAS over Arizona, CLEVELAND over
NY Giants.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-SEATTLE over Green Bay.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-ATLANTA over Chicago, TAMPA
BAY over Carolina, CLEVELAND over N.Y. Giants.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
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CAROLINA
Series and team trends favor Carolina when the Panthers
travel to Tampa Bay for an NFC South showdown against the Bucs
Sunday afternoon. Raymond James Stadium certainly hasn’t
spooked Carolina, which has won five straight off Dale Mabry
Highway (covering 4 of those). And the Panthers have been one
of the NFL’s most-accomplished underdogs this decade, especially
so away from home, where they’ve recorded a 21-8-2 spread mark
their last 31 when receiving points. That’s also why Carolina is a
featured recommendation (along with HC John Fox) in the NFL
Coach as Underdog system this week.
OAKLAND at NEW ORLEANS...Raiders have covered their first 2
as visitor TY. They’re also “over” 3-1 TY and “over” 13-6-1 since ‘07.
Saints have won and covered first two as host in ‘08, and now “over”
16-6-1 last 23 on board. Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals”
trends.
BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens “over” 6-3-1 their last 10
as visitor. Colts 0-2 SU and vs. line in Lucas Oil Stadium, though “over”
in both. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Ravens, based on
“totals” and recent team trends.
CINCINNATI at NY JETS...Bengals now “under” 8-3 last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Mangini 2-1 as chalk TY, and throwing out LY’s 0-3-1 chalk
mark, Jets 6-2-1 laying points since ‘06 for Mangini. Tech edge-
“Under” and slight to Jets, based on recent team and
“totals” trends.
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY...Panthers have won last 5 trips to
Raymond James Stadium, covering 4 of those. If Carolina a dog note
Fox’s 20-8-2 spread mark last 30 in role. Gruden “over” 8-3 last 11
dating to late ‘07. Tech edge-Panthers and “over,” based on
series, team, and “totals” trends.
DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Vikes 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Lions 2-8 vs. line away since LY, 4-14 since ‘06. They’re also
“over” 14-5 last 19 as visitor (1-1 TY). Tech edge-Vikings and
“over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
CHICAGO at ATLANTA...Falcs “over” first 2 at Georgia Dome TY,
now “over” 8-2 last 10 as host. Bears “over” 27-14-1 last 42 on board.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.
MIAMI at HOUSTON...Dolphins “over” 6-3 last 9 since late ‘07,
Texans “over” first 3 TY, now “over” 16-7-1 last 24 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-“Over,” based on “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON...Rams 5-15 vs. line since ‘07, 2-7 that
span as road dog. Rams also “under” 7-3 away since ‘07. Tech
edge-Skins and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals”
trends.
JACKSONVILLE at DENVER...Broncos “over” 4-1 TY, now “over”
20-6 last 26 since late ‘06, and “over” 13-3 last 16 at Invesco Field.
JV “over” 11-2 its last 13 on road. If Jags a dog note 7-2 mark on road
in role since ‘07. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Jags, if dog,
based on “totals” and team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Birds 12-6-1 vs. line on road
since ‘06, but note Andy Reid just 4-12-1 vs. number last 17 as chalk
(0-1 TY). Niners now “under” 8-3 last 11 at Candlestick since LY.
Tech edge-slight to “under” and 49ers, based on “totals”
and team trends.
DALLAS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 7-3 vs. line as host since
becoming Cards’ HC in ‘07, and 2-0 as home dog that span. Cards
5-2 as home dog since ‘06. Cards “over” 19-7 last 26 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-slight to Cards and “over,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
GREEN BAY at SEATTLE...Pack “over” 4-1 TY, “over” 18-5 since
‘07. Seattle “over” first 4 TY, now “over" last 7 and 9 of last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Holmgren also 19-9-1 vs. line at home since ‘05 (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-Seahawks and “over,” based on team and “totals”
trends.
NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO...Belichick 5-1 as dog since ‘06, 24-
11-1 in role last 36 as dog overall. Tech edge-slight to Patriots,
based on Belichick dog mark.
NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (Monday, October 13)...Eli has won
last 12 SU away from home, and Giants have covered 9 straight and
11 of 12 away from home. Romeo “under” last 5 by Lake Erie. Tech
edge-Giants and slight to “under,” based on team and
“totals” trends.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS A UNDERDOG-CAROLINA over Tampa Bay@, NEW
ENGLAND over San Diego, and dog in J'VILLE-DENVER game.
FAMILIARITY-TAMPA BAY over Carolina@.
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-DALLAS over Arizona, CLEVELAND over
NY Giants.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-SEATTLE over Green Bay.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-ATLANTA over Chicago, TAMPA
BAY over Carolina, CLEVELAND over N.Y. Giants.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
<!-- / message -->
GOLDSHEET - NFL
ARIZONA by 6 over Dallas
SEATTLE by 14 over Green Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Miami-Houston game
ARIZONA 30 - Dallas 24—Dallas (2-0 vs. the spread away TY) has
historically had a strong following in Arizona. But Ken Whisenhunt has been
having considerable success “changing the culture” of the Cards, who are now
7-3 vs. spread at University of Phoenix Stadium under their steady HC,
including 2-0 as a dog. Arizona demonstrated its depth at WR last week (Larry
Fitzgerald 7 recs., Steve Breaston 7, Early Doucet 6) with Anquan Boldin out.
And powerful short-yardage specialist Tim Hightower (2 more TDR) helping E.
James in the backfield.
(06-Dallas -6' 27-10...SR: Dallas 55-28-1)
SEATTLE 34 - Green Bay 20—Neither of these two bear much
resemblance to LY’s playoff foes. But even with Aaron Rodgers (3 TDP last
week despite sore shoulder) back for the Pack, much prefer Seattle, which
offers good value at home (19-9-1 vs. line at extremely noisy Qwest Field since
‘05) and ought to be able to do some business vs. depleted Green Bay “D” that’s
particularly strapped in the secondary after recent injuries. Clutch Seahawk
WRs Bobby Engram & Deion Branch got the kinks out last week. And we know
Mike Holmgren is still stinging from that lopsided loss vs. his former team last
January at Lambeau. “Totals” alert—Pack “over” 18-5 last 23!
(07-G. BAY 42-Sea. 20...G.25-15 G.35/235 S.18/28 G.18/23/0/173 S.19/33/0/172 G.2 S.1)
(07-GREEN BAY -7' 42-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Green Bay 8-5
OVER THE TOTAL HOUSTON 27 - Miami 26—Second of four straight
home games for Houston, which has played well enough to win last two weeks
at Jacksonville and last week vs. Indy, losing one game in OT and the other in
the waning minutes after a couple of “not-so-sage” Rosenfels fumbles.
Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter LY, and is getting plenty of help from WR A.
Johnson & quick rookie RB Slaton. But Miami is brimming with confidence after
another Ronnie Brown TD from the Wildcat formation, giving Dolphins back-toback
victories over LY’s AFC title game participants! Houston “over” 4-0 TY;
17-7-1 overall.
(07-HOU. 22-Miami 19...H.20-17 M.25/137 H.28/74 H.20/34/1/278 M.16/29/1/148 H.1 M.0)
(07-HOUSTON -5 22-19...SR: Houston 3-0)
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24—First game for Oakland under elevated
OL coach Tom Cable, who was 11-35 in his only other head coaching job at
Idaho 2000-2003, making him fit right in with the likes of Bill Callahan, Norv
Turner, Art Shell & Lane Kiffin as HCs tabbed by Al Davis since Jon Gruden in
2001. Meanwhile, former Raiders such as Warren Sapp have been entertaining
us with tales of strange occurrences in Oakland. All that being said, however,
the Raiders have enough talent to be 2-0 vs. the spread on the road TY, and o.c.
Greg Knapp is reportedly under instructions to call more plays to exploit the
considerable talents of LSU product JaMarcus Russell.
(04-New Orleans +3 31-26...SR: Oakland 5-4-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Baltimore 17—Huge Manning-vs.-Flacco QB edge for
Indy. But Colts’ remodeled OL must deal with the aggressive zone blitzes of
Ravens, while the thinned Indy defense must inhibit the power running of Willis
McGahee & 260-pound FB/RB Le’Ron McClain (266 YR, 4 TDs). Rookie HC
John Harbaugh has had Baltimore fired up for every game so far, with both
losses in the late going by 3 points each. However, Indy is 0-2 SU so far at “The
Luke” and eager for first win at new home, so in Peyton vs. the rookie we trust.
(07-Indy 44-BALT. 20...B.19-16 B.32/98 I.27/59 I.16/22/0/275 B.22/30/3/145 I.0 B.2)
(07-Indianapolis -9 44-20...SR: Indianapolis 6-2)
NY JETS 27 - Cincinnati 16—It will be a long time before Jets again get 7
takeaways, as they did in last game vs. Arizona two weeks ago. However, they
looked like a different team, with Brett Favre passing freely to open receivers
and the aggressive N.Y. front seven collecting five sacks. This week, they can
add some punch in the backfield with RB Jesse Chatman’s suspension
concluded. Sore-elbowed Carson Palmer not much more mobile than Cards’
Kurt Warner.
(07-CINCY 38-Jets 31...C.26-19 C.41/177 N.26/84 N.20/31/1/258 C.14/21/1/218 C.0 N.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -6 38-31...SR: NY Jets 13-7)
Carolina 23 - TAMPA BAY 16—The Panthers have enjoyed inordinate
recent success at Raymond James, winning their last five trips! With Jake
Delhomme getting support on the ground from both DeAngelo Williams &
Jonathan Stewart and through the air from Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad,
must believe they have a considerable chance to extend their streak, especially
with Bucs’ QB picture unclear once again. Carolina 20-8-2 last 30 as an
underdog!
(07-T. Bay 20-CAR. 7...T.22-13 T.42/189 C.23/99 T.15/25/0/176 C.19/41/1/137 T.1 C.1)
(07-Car. 31-T. BAY 23...C.20-17 C.37/180 T.26/107 T.21/28/1/196 C.15/24/1/169 C.1 T.0)
(07-Tampa Bay +3 20-7, Carolina -3 31-23...SR: Carolina 9-6)
MINNESOTA 31 - Detroit 10—Well, so much for the thought that Matt Millen
was all that ailed in Detroit. Lions need more than a new GM; they need an
exorcism (by the way, was that Max von Sydow we saw at Ford Field last
week?), as the mess Millen left behind now includes issues at QB after Jon
Kitna was pulled (or was he hurt?) vs. Bears to go along with Detroit’s
unassertive defense (37 ppg, only two takeaways). By comparison,
Minnesota’s concerns seem minor, and the Vikes still have Adrian Peterson
and the most dominant platoon (their “D”) on field. Minny led 35-10 at the H in
LY’s game at the HHH Metrodome.
(07-DET. 20-Min. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINNESOTA -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 61-30-2)
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16—There’s not much secret to Atlanta’s best
recipe, which is to establish Michael Turner as an infantry force to minimize the
pressure on promising rookie QB Matt Ryan, who is capable of generating big
plays off the threat of Turner’s runs. But Chicago’s Kyle Orton (5 TDP last 2
games) is off his best back-to-back efforts since his days at Purdue, and Devin
Hester (5 catches at Detroit) starting to establish himself as legit receiving
threat. Bears a couple of 4th-quarter breakdowns from a 5-0 SU mark!
(05-CHICAGO -3' 16-3...SR: Chicago 12-10)
WASHINGTON 31 - St. Louis 13—It’s interesting that Jim Haslett,
coordinator of one of the league’s worst defenses (37 ppg), has been elevated
to be HC of the Rams. Most insiders blame St. Louis’ current plight on dubious
front office moves over the past several years, combined with terrible injury
luck. Now, there’s even wild speculation of a move back to L.A.! But the
question here is whether the Rams (2-7 last 9 as a dog) deserve respect in an
extraordinary situation (first game for a new coach) vs. solid Washington (4
straight covers) with its Campbell-Portis-Moss offense and bright young HC Jim
Zorn. We’ll say not ‘til they earn it.
(06-ST. LOUIS -2 37-31 (OT)...SR: Washington 22-9-1)
DENVER 28 - Jacksonville 23—Pass vs. run? No doubt Jacksonville—with
Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew—will try to play “keepaway” vs. Denver’s
high-scoring spread and its explosive young passing combo of QB Cutler (10
TDs, 4 ints.), Brandon Marshall (34 recs.) & Eddie Royal (30). The Jags racked
up 186 YR in a victory on this field LY. But the young Broncs are now a more
mature, moe talented crew that has gone “over” 4-1 TY and 20 of its last 26
overall. And Jacksonville “over” 11 of 13 away.
(07-Jack. 23-DENVER 14...J.21-11 J.47/186 D.18/47 D.16/23/1/218 J.14/20/0/140 J.2 D.2)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 23-14...SR: EVEN 4-4)
Philadelphia 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 17—Can’t trust the S.F. offense with its
20 sacks allowed vs. the aggressive Philly defense and its 18 sacks earned.
Washington—with its depth at DB and familiarity with the multiple talents of
Brian Westbrook—was able to contain the Eagles for the final three quarters
last week. Not sure the 49ers able to duplicate that performance. The savvy
New England defense was able to lure J.T. O’Sullivan into three ints. last week.
(06-Philadelphia -6 38-24...SR: San Francisco 17-9-1)
*SAN DIEGO 27 - New England 13—Payback time for S.D. after a pair of
losses LY, the first in Week Two vs. the then-rampaging N.E. offense, and the
second in the January AFC title game, when LaDainian Tomlinson was out and
Philip Rivers played with a tear in his ACL and TE Antonio Gates with a bum
foot. The Pats’ offense that was setting records in 2007 is near the bottom of
the league in 2008. Bill Belichick teams are 24-11-1 last 36 when getting points.
But Matt Cassel is making only his fourth start, and the defense is giving up
some long TD drives. Chargers 9-2 vs. spread last 11 at home.
TV—NBC
(07-N. ENG. 38-S. Diego 14...N.25-14 N.32/144 S.20/52 N.25/31/1/263 S.19/30/2/149 N.1 S.1)
(07-N. ENG. 21-S. Diego 12...N.25-17 N.31/149 S.22/104 S.19/37/2/207 N.22/33/3/198 N.0 S.0)
(07-NEW ENGLAND -3' 38-14, NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-12 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 20-14-2)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 13
*NY Giants 27 - CLEVELAND 16—Considering the expected kamikaze
effort from Cleveland, it’s tempting to give the Browns consideration as a
substantial dog. But not THAT tempting, as Cleveland has many areas of
concern. Meanwhile, the unbeaten Giants—whose performance hardly
suffered vs. Seattle minus Plaxico Burress—take a 12-game road unbeaten
string and 10 straight covers as visitor to the shores of Lake Erie. Besides,
Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has been shaken this season by less
menacing obstacles than N.Y.’s formidable pass rush, and the possible switch
to Brady Quinn not likely to boost the Brownies vs. this foe. CABLE TV—ESPN
(2007 Preseason: NY GIANTS -2 beat Cleveland 37-34 at New York)
(04-NY GIANTS -3' 27-10...SR: Cleveland 26-20-2)
<!-- / message -->
ARIZONA by 6 over Dallas
SEATTLE by 14 over Green Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Miami-Houston game
ARIZONA 30 - Dallas 24—Dallas (2-0 vs. the spread away TY) has
historically had a strong following in Arizona. But Ken Whisenhunt has been
having considerable success “changing the culture” of the Cards, who are now
7-3 vs. spread at University of Phoenix Stadium under their steady HC,
including 2-0 as a dog. Arizona demonstrated its depth at WR last week (Larry
Fitzgerald 7 recs., Steve Breaston 7, Early Doucet 6) with Anquan Boldin out.
And powerful short-yardage specialist Tim Hightower (2 more TDR) helping E.
James in the backfield.
(06-Dallas -6' 27-10...SR: Dallas 55-28-1)
SEATTLE 34 - Green Bay 20—Neither of these two bear much
resemblance to LY’s playoff foes. But even with Aaron Rodgers (3 TDP last
week despite sore shoulder) back for the Pack, much prefer Seattle, which
offers good value at home (19-9-1 vs. line at extremely noisy Qwest Field since
‘05) and ought to be able to do some business vs. depleted Green Bay “D” that’s
particularly strapped in the secondary after recent injuries. Clutch Seahawk
WRs Bobby Engram & Deion Branch got the kinks out last week. And we know
Mike Holmgren is still stinging from that lopsided loss vs. his former team last
January at Lambeau. “Totals” alert—Pack “over” 18-5 last 23!
(07-G. BAY 42-Sea. 20...G.25-15 G.35/235 S.18/28 G.18/23/0/173 S.19/33/0/172 G.2 S.1)
(07-GREEN BAY -7' 42-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Green Bay 8-5
OVER THE TOTAL HOUSTON 27 - Miami 26—Second of four straight
home games for Houston, which has played well enough to win last two weeks
at Jacksonville and last week vs. Indy, losing one game in OT and the other in
the waning minutes after a couple of “not-so-sage” Rosenfels fumbles.
Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter LY, and is getting plenty of help from WR A.
Johnson & quick rookie RB Slaton. But Miami is brimming with confidence after
another Ronnie Brown TD from the Wildcat formation, giving Dolphins back-toback
victories over LY’s AFC title game participants! Houston “over” 4-0 TY;
17-7-1 overall.
(07-HOU. 22-Miami 19...H.20-17 M.25/137 H.28/74 H.20/34/1/278 M.16/29/1/148 H.1 M.0)
(07-HOUSTON -5 22-19...SR: Houston 3-0)
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24—First game for Oakland under elevated
OL coach Tom Cable, who was 11-35 in his only other head coaching job at
Idaho 2000-2003, making him fit right in with the likes of Bill Callahan, Norv
Turner, Art Shell & Lane Kiffin as HCs tabbed by Al Davis since Jon Gruden in
2001. Meanwhile, former Raiders such as Warren Sapp have been entertaining
us with tales of strange occurrences in Oakland. All that being said, however,
the Raiders have enough talent to be 2-0 vs. the spread on the road TY, and o.c.
Greg Knapp is reportedly under instructions to call more plays to exploit the
considerable talents of LSU product JaMarcus Russell.
(04-New Orleans +3 31-26...SR: Oakland 5-4-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Baltimore 17—Huge Manning-vs.-Flacco QB edge for
Indy. But Colts’ remodeled OL must deal with the aggressive zone blitzes of
Ravens, while the thinned Indy defense must inhibit the power running of Willis
McGahee & 260-pound FB/RB Le’Ron McClain (266 YR, 4 TDs). Rookie HC
John Harbaugh has had Baltimore fired up for every game so far, with both
losses in the late going by 3 points each. However, Indy is 0-2 SU so far at “The
Luke” and eager for first win at new home, so in Peyton vs. the rookie we trust.
(07-Indy 44-BALT. 20...B.19-16 B.32/98 I.27/59 I.16/22/0/275 B.22/30/3/145 I.0 B.2)
(07-Indianapolis -9 44-20...SR: Indianapolis 6-2)
NY JETS 27 - Cincinnati 16—It will be a long time before Jets again get 7
takeaways, as they did in last game vs. Arizona two weeks ago. However, they
looked like a different team, with Brett Favre passing freely to open receivers
and the aggressive N.Y. front seven collecting five sacks. This week, they can
add some punch in the backfield with RB Jesse Chatman’s suspension
concluded. Sore-elbowed Carson Palmer not much more mobile than Cards’
Kurt Warner.
(07-CINCY 38-Jets 31...C.26-19 C.41/177 N.26/84 N.20/31/1/258 C.14/21/1/218 C.0 N.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -6 38-31...SR: NY Jets 13-7)
Carolina 23 - TAMPA BAY 16—The Panthers have enjoyed inordinate
recent success at Raymond James, winning their last five trips! With Jake
Delhomme getting support on the ground from both DeAngelo Williams &
Jonathan Stewart and through the air from Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad,
must believe they have a considerable chance to extend their streak, especially
with Bucs’ QB picture unclear once again. Carolina 20-8-2 last 30 as an
underdog!
(07-T. Bay 20-CAR. 7...T.22-13 T.42/189 C.23/99 T.15/25/0/176 C.19/41/1/137 T.1 C.1)
(07-Car. 31-T. BAY 23...C.20-17 C.37/180 T.26/107 T.21/28/1/196 C.15/24/1/169 C.1 T.0)
(07-Tampa Bay +3 20-7, Carolina -3 31-23...SR: Carolina 9-6)
MINNESOTA 31 - Detroit 10—Well, so much for the thought that Matt Millen
was all that ailed in Detroit. Lions need more than a new GM; they need an
exorcism (by the way, was that Max von Sydow we saw at Ford Field last
week?), as the mess Millen left behind now includes issues at QB after Jon
Kitna was pulled (or was he hurt?) vs. Bears to go along with Detroit’s
unassertive defense (37 ppg, only two takeaways). By comparison,
Minnesota’s concerns seem minor, and the Vikes still have Adrian Peterson
and the most dominant platoon (their “D”) on field. Minny led 35-10 at the H in
LY’s game at the HHH Metrodome.
(07-DET. 20-Min. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINNESOTA -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 61-30-2)
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16—There’s not much secret to Atlanta’s best
recipe, which is to establish Michael Turner as an infantry force to minimize the
pressure on promising rookie QB Matt Ryan, who is capable of generating big
plays off the threat of Turner’s runs. But Chicago’s Kyle Orton (5 TDP last 2
games) is off his best back-to-back efforts since his days at Purdue, and Devin
Hester (5 catches at Detroit) starting to establish himself as legit receiving
threat. Bears a couple of 4th-quarter breakdowns from a 5-0 SU mark!
(05-CHICAGO -3' 16-3...SR: Chicago 12-10)
WASHINGTON 31 - St. Louis 13—It’s interesting that Jim Haslett,
coordinator of one of the league’s worst defenses (37 ppg), has been elevated
to be HC of the Rams. Most insiders blame St. Louis’ current plight on dubious
front office moves over the past several years, combined with terrible injury
luck. Now, there’s even wild speculation of a move back to L.A.! But the
question here is whether the Rams (2-7 last 9 as a dog) deserve respect in an
extraordinary situation (first game for a new coach) vs. solid Washington (4
straight covers) with its Campbell-Portis-Moss offense and bright young HC Jim
Zorn. We’ll say not ‘til they earn it.
(06-ST. LOUIS -2 37-31 (OT)...SR: Washington 22-9-1)
DENVER 28 - Jacksonville 23—Pass vs. run? No doubt Jacksonville—with
Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew—will try to play “keepaway” vs. Denver’s
high-scoring spread and its explosive young passing combo of QB Cutler (10
TDs, 4 ints.), Brandon Marshall (34 recs.) & Eddie Royal (30). The Jags racked
up 186 YR in a victory on this field LY. But the young Broncs are now a more
mature, moe talented crew that has gone “over” 4-1 TY and 20 of its last 26
overall. And Jacksonville “over” 11 of 13 away.
(07-Jack. 23-DENVER 14...J.21-11 J.47/186 D.18/47 D.16/23/1/218 J.14/20/0/140 J.2 D.2)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 23-14...SR: EVEN 4-4)
Philadelphia 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 17—Can’t trust the S.F. offense with its
20 sacks allowed vs. the aggressive Philly defense and its 18 sacks earned.
Washington—with its depth at DB and familiarity with the multiple talents of
Brian Westbrook—was able to contain the Eagles for the final three quarters
last week. Not sure the 49ers able to duplicate that performance. The savvy
New England defense was able to lure J.T. O’Sullivan into three ints. last week.
(06-Philadelphia -6 38-24...SR: San Francisco 17-9-1)
*SAN DIEGO 27 - New England 13—Payback time for S.D. after a pair of
losses LY, the first in Week Two vs. the then-rampaging N.E. offense, and the
second in the January AFC title game, when LaDainian Tomlinson was out and
Philip Rivers played with a tear in his ACL and TE Antonio Gates with a bum
foot. The Pats’ offense that was setting records in 2007 is near the bottom of
the league in 2008. Bill Belichick teams are 24-11-1 last 36 when getting points.
But Matt Cassel is making only his fourth start, and the defense is giving up
some long TD drives. Chargers 9-2 vs. spread last 11 at home.
TV—NBC
(07-N. ENG. 38-S. Diego 14...N.25-14 N.32/144 S.20/52 N.25/31/1/263 S.19/30/2/149 N.1 S.1)
(07-N. ENG. 21-S. Diego 12...N.25-17 N.31/149 S.22/104 S.19/37/2/207 N.22/33/3/198 N.0 S.0)
(07-NEW ENGLAND -3' 38-14, NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-12 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 20-14-2)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 13
*NY Giants 27 - CLEVELAND 16—Considering the expected kamikaze
effort from Cleveland, it’s tempting to give the Browns consideration as a
substantial dog. But not THAT tempting, as Cleveland has many areas of
concern. Meanwhile, the unbeaten Giants—whose performance hardly
suffered vs. Seattle minus Plaxico Burress—take a 12-game road unbeaten
string and 10 straight covers as visitor to the shores of Lake Erie. Besides,
Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has been shaken this season by less
menacing obstacles than N.Y.’s formidable pass rush, and the possible switch
to Brady Quinn not likely to boost the Brownies vs. this foe. CABLE TV—ESPN
(2007 Preseason: NY GIANTS -2 beat Cleveland 37-34 at New York)
(04-NY GIANTS -3' 27-10...SR: Cleveland 26-20-2)
<!-- / message -->
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA Plus over Illinois
WESTERN MICHIGAN by 8 over Buffalo
VANDERBILT by 12 over Mississippi State
OREGON STATE by 39 over Washington State
Minnesota 30 - ILLINOIS 31—Illinois could be caught in an emotional
trough after destruction of Michigan in Ann Arbor last week. Minnesota has
covered 4 straight and had its starting OL intact for the first time this season
against Indiana, and Gopher defense is among most improved units in the
country with infusion of jucos and leadership & preparation provided by new d.c.
Ted Roof. Minny got a little dinged-up against the Hoosiers, but QB Adam
Weber (bruised knee) and WR Steve Decker (knee to head) both returned to Indy game
and are expected to be ready to go. TV-ESPN
(07-Ill. 44-MINN. 17...I.27-18 I.50/448 M.31/95 M.21/35/1/242 I.14/21/1/207 I.1 M.0)
(07-Illinois -11' 44-17...SR: Minnesota 31-27-3)
Western Michigan 34 - BUFFALO 26—Highly-regarded HC Turner Gill
(9-3 vs. spread last 12) has energized moribund Buffalo program and turned
Bulls into one of MAC’s top contenders. Well-schooled WMU still has a lot more
speed & depth on defense, however. No big surprise if Broncos’ cocksure jr.
QB Hiller (69%, 19 TDP & only 4 ints.) outduels careful UB sr. counterpart Willy
(only 3 ints. in last 12 games) and extends WMU win streak to six. (05-WESTERN
MICHIGAN -10' 31-21...SR: Western Michigan 3-0)
Vanderbilt 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 12—Though sizzling Vandy (1st
5-0 start since 1943!) is SEC road chalk for only 2nd time since ‘99, won’t buck
bowl-hungry ‘Dores, who held Auburn scoreless for final 3 Qs of impressive 14-
13 upset in Nashville. MSU’s QB Lee (in his starting debut) likely to make a few
miscues vs. Vandy’s ball-hawking 2ndary (11 ints.), while Bulldog stop unit has
hands full with either Vandy triggerman QB Nickson (see Special Ticker) or
dual-threat Adams. (DNP...SR: Mississippi State 10-7-2)
OREGON STATE 42 - Washington State 3—New Wazzu HC Wulff
could be excused for asking Congress for some extra bailout help to aid his
kittenish Cougars, who have little chance of avoiding embarrassment vs.
competent opposition (of which OSU certainly qualifies) with shaky 3rd-string,
RS frosh QB Lobbestael learning on the job. A lot more going for Beavers, who
narrowly missed scoring second straight major upset (at Utah) and who usually
take care of business at Corvallis (8-2 vs line last 10).
(07-Ore. St. 52-WASH. ST. 17...18-18 O.49/218 W.30/83 W.21/46/7/314 O.17/30/0/213 O.0 W.1)
(07-Osu +3 52-17 06-Wsu -3 13-6 05-OSU -1' 44-33...SR: Washington State 47-42-3)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9
*WAKE FOREST 23 - Clemson 16—Each team had last week off to try to
shake any lingering effects from discouraging home losses in previous game.
Edge to Clemson’s speedy cast of offensive skill performers, as Wake RB Josh
Adams (953 YR & 12 TDs in 2007, just 151 & 2 TY) mired in soph slump so far.
Still, rebuilt Tiger OL keeping sr. QB Harper (just 3 TDP) from recapturing LY’s
form, too. Deacons’ opportunistic defense & special teams (nation-leading 52
takeaways last 1+ seasons!) tip scales in favor of host. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEM. 44-W. For. 10...C.25-21 C.34/145 W.37/83 C.27/36/0/266 W.24/35/1/204 C.0 W.0)
(07-CLEM. -9' 44-10 06-Clem. -16 27-17 05-WFU +6' 31-27...SR: Clemson 56-16-1)
*HOUSTON 45 - Uab 32—Scary matchup for depth-shy UAB defense
(allowing 466 ypg), as there’s little doubt prolific Houston’s quick-trigger soph
QB Keenum (68%, 19 TDP & only 5 ints.) will shred poor-covering Blazer
secondary. Cougs (no covers last 6 as favorite) also frequently find it hard to get
stops, however, so visitor should have enough weapons to hang if versatile but
TO-prone jr. QB Webb avoids giveaways.
(07-Houston 49-UAB 10...H.33-12 H.59/335 U.18/26 H.21/34/0/205 U.12/34/4/198 H.1 U.0)
(07-Houston -13 49-10...SR: UAB 4-2)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10
*Louisville 31 - MEMPHIS 30—Tigers have won 3 straight behind rapidlymaturing
juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week). Louisville defense improved
under new coordinator Ron English, while vulnerable Memphis stop unit
(allowing 5 ypc last 1+ seasons) will have to stack box against juking Card RS
frosh RB Victor Anderson (390 YR on 8 ypc, 5 TDs in last 3 games). But major
edge to host’s deep, experienced cast of WRs (five already have at least 1
TDC). TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Louisville 22-18)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11
East Carolina 24 - VIRGINIA 23—Beleaguered Cavalier HC Groh certainly
not out of the woods at Charlottesville, but can’t ignore possible buy signs for
UVa during last week’s shutout home win over inconsistent Maryland. New QB
soph Verica gaining confidence, oft-injured top RB sr. Peerman is healthy, and
disappointing Cav defense discovering some machismo. Veteran ECU’s
psyche a little fragile, as two straight losses have put the kibosh on earlyseason
BCS buzz.
(06-EAST CAROLINA -6' 31-21...SR: East Carolina 2-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 37 - Syracuse 17—Underrated Mountaineer defense will
hold sway in this game. Still, sputtering WV offense (only 17 ppg in first 4 vs.
FBS foes!) currently pales in comparison to LY’s juggernaut attack that racked
up 40 ppg. Woebegone Syracuse might get just enough out of improving sr. QB
Dantley (6 TDP) & now-healthy sr. RB Brinkley (264 YR in last 2 games) to hang
inside big spread.
(07-W. Va. 55-SYR. 14...W.25-11 W.54/251 S.37/94 W.18/21/0/235 S.6/16/2/108 W.0 S.1)
(07-Wva -27 55-14 06-WVA -25' 41-17 05-Wva +2 15-7...SR: Syracuse 30-25)
INDIANA 21 - Iowa 20—Both of these teams are reeling from 3 straight
losses. Favor QB edge held by Indiana’s Kellen Lewis over Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi.
Hawkeye RB Shonn Greene has 316 YR in his last 2 games, but just 1 TD to
show for it. Conversely, Hoosier speed-merchant RB Thigpen has 4 scores in
the last 2 games, with 3 of those covering more than 70 yards.
(07-Ind. 38-IOWA 20...Ia.22-17 Ia.37/120 In.35/73 In.19/26/1/322 Ia.24/42/1/308 In.1 Ia.1)
(07-Indiana +10 38-20 06-INDIANA +19 31-28 05-IOWA -16 38-21...SR: Iowa 39-26-4
Michigan State 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23—Michigan State RB Ringer was
slowed down by Iowa, and Northwestern defense isn’t bad (3.4 ypc). Wildcats
had a week off to get star RB Sutton near 100%, and QB C.J. Bacher threw for
525 yds. & 5 TDs with 5 ints. against the Spartans last season. NW has covered
last 4 in series, and MSU defense showed some vulnerability on the road this
season, yielding 38 at Cal and 29 at Indiana. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-N’w’rn 48-MSU 41 (OT)...N.29-20 M.32/287 N.34/91 N.38/49/0/520 M.17/31/0/194 N.0 M.0)
(07-Nwu +16 48-41 (OT) 06-Msu -8 41-38 05-Nwu +13 49-14...SR: Michigan State 32-16)
Oklahoma 35 - Texas 22—Early reports indicate penetrating DT DeMarcus
Granger & emerging RS frosh DE Frank Alexander are expected to return to
practice to strengthen the OU defense, so prefer to side with Sooners in battle
of potent unbeatens (both SU & vs. the spread). Both teams get excellent
QBing, but the more established running game and more experienced
secondary of Oklahoma appear to be the biggest edges in this edition of the
Red River Rivalry. OU’s offseason change to a no-huddle attack figures to be
a plus vs. athletic—but young—Longhorn DBs. (at Dallas, TX) TV—ABC
(07-Okla. 28-Texas 21...O.20-16 O.41/170 T.29/61 T.19/26/1/324 O.21/32/0/244 O.0 T.1)
(07-Okla. -12 28-21 06-Tex. -3' 28-10 05-Tex. -14 45-12 all at Dal...SR: Texas 57-40-5)
ARMY 30 - Eastern Michigan 20—Both these long-suffering sides off upset
road wins last week. Army’s new triple-option attack (571 YR last 2 games!)
keeps caissons rolling along for Black Knights and sends defense-shy EMU
(permitted 17 rush TDs in its last 5!) back to drawing board.
(DNP...SR: Army 1-0)
*BAYLOR 27 - Iowa State 26—ISU is 8-4 as a dog under Gene Chizik, who
has developed considerable balance and confidence with his young offense.
But the defense (34, 35 points last two games) is tending to give up points in
bunches—not a good trait vs. BU’s talented Mr. Griffin. Will lean to host SU, but
won’t lay many points.
(05-Baylor +8 23-13...SR: Iowa State 4-3)
South Carolina 24 - KENTUCKY 17—USC confidence restored in SEC
(snapped 6-game conference losing streak) with 31-24 victory at Ole Miss. So,
favor ‘Cock squad that came alive behind QB Smelley (career-best 327 yds. vs.
Rebels), who hit 9 different receivers, including previously-injured WR
McKinley. UK’s still-developing QB Hartline generates few “explosive plays” vs.
tenacious Carolina stop unit, especially with ‘Cocks lock-down CB Captain
Munnerlyn shadowing his favorite target WR Lyons.
07-S. CAR. 38-Ky. 23...K.26-18 K.38/157 S.36/86 S.17/30/0/256 K.23/40/1/227 S.1 K.3)
(07-USC -4 38-23 06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16...SR: South Carolina 12-6-1)
Utah 37 - WYOMING 6—Although Joe Glenn ditched his recent Wyo QB
merry-go-round last week at Albuquerque (last year’s starter Sween went all the
way vs. Lobos, as opposed to the 4 who took snaps previous week vs. Bowling
Green), it didn’t help woebegone Cowboys, who were blanked and now haven’t
covered a game in 13 months (0-13-1 vs. line last 14!). And doubt Kyle
Whittingham will show any mercy, recalling Glenn’s “one-fingered salute” to
Utes during LY’s 50-0 Utah romp.
(07-UTAH 50-Wyo. 0...U.22-12 U.51/278 W.30/37 U.19/32/1/227 W.13/32/2/85 U.0 W.3)
(07-UTAH -13' 50-0 06-WYOMING +3' 31-15 05-UTAH -3 43-13...SR: Utah 48-32-1)
Kansas State 31 - TEXAS A&M 30—Each team should be able to exploit the
other’s porous defense after A&M gave up 56 points last week at Oklahoma
State and K-State gave up 58 vs. Texas Tech! A&M defense is lacking in
speed, while Wildcats still have tackling problems, even after HC Prince has
replaced half his starters with some prized newcomers.
(05-Texas A&M -5 30-28...SR: Texas A&M 8-4)
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 24 - Temple 19—Temple apparently found a stopgap
solution to QB Adam DiMichele’s injury with RS frosh Chester Stewart
stepping up to throw 3 TDPs in upset at Miami-O., despite missing practice
during the week due to a sore ankle. Owl defense has toughened up since
DiMichele was hurt, allowing just 17 points in 2 games, and Temple is 4-1-1 vs.
the number this season, 17-9-1 against the points last 27, and 11-3-1 last 15 vs.
MAC teams under HC Al Golden. CMU QB LeFevour always dangerous, but
Owls playing with purpose. (06-Central Michigan -19 42-26...SR: Central Michigan 1-0)
OHIO STATE 42 - Purdue 16—The Terrelle Pryor era is well underway at
Ohio State, while vet Purdue star QB Curtis Painter appears to be on thin ice
with lame duck HC Joe Tiller after being pulled last week against Penn State.
Pryor’s multi-dimensional qualities and return to health of Buckeye RB Beanie
Wells (274 total YR vs. Minny & Wisconsin) could overwhelm Boilermaker
defense that ranks 108th. Purdue has dropped 6 of last 7 spread decisions.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Ohio St. 23-PURDUE 7...O.20-15 O.45/181 P.17/4 P.31/60/0/268 O.17/29/3/200 O.0 P.1)
(07-Ohio State -7 23-7...SR: Ohio State 36-12-2)
Tcu 28 - COLORADO STATE 10—To its credit, CSU has thus far endured
fewer growing pains under new HC Fairchild than MWC sources envisioned.
But the fun could end vs. TCU and its swarming, top-rated defense (only 209
ypg!) that has throttled Rams in recent meetings. Expect Frogs to stonewall RB
G. Johnson and keep CSU QB Farris on the run, and Gary Patterson very comfy
with fact he can win with two QBs (former starter Jackson effective in relief of
soph Dalton in last week’s romp past SDSU).
(07-TCU 24-Colo. St. 12...T.23-16 T.48/201 C.28/55 C.21/39/3/216 T.16/32/0/197 T.2 C.0)
(07-TCU -10 24-12 06-Tcu -9' 45-14 05-TCU -7 33-6...SR: TCU 4-1)
*MISSOURI 48 - Oklahoma State 30—In a shootout, don’t mind siding with
host, which also has the most guns. Mizzou has scored in 19 of 20 Qs TY, and
the Tigers have now gone 49 straight possessions with no three-and-outs. MU
never punted last week at Nebraska. Yes, OSU has scored 56 ppg its last four,
but the Cowboys have yet to face a tough foe on the road. MU 12-3 last 15 when
favored, and HC Pinkel says this is his best OL in Columbia. CABLE TV—
ESPN (05-Missouri -4' 38-31...SR: Missouri 27-21)
GEORGIA 31 - Tennessee 13—Following disappointing 41-30 Athens loss
vs. Bama, pumped-up, rested UGA likely to continue its superior play following
a bye week (6-1 vs. spread last 7 in scheduling spot) in double-revenge game
vs. UT. Dawgs efficient QB Stafford (60%, 7 TDs, 1 int.) owns enormous edge
over Vols untested 6-4 soph QB Stephens (just 1 TD vs. Northern Ill.),
inadequately supported by sagging ground game mustering a scant 69 yds. vs.
Huskies. If UGA’s star RB Moreno able to go (check status), Richt’s squad pulls
away from still-troubled, offensively-stagnant UT (1 meaningful TD in two SEC
games). TV—CBS
(07-TENN. 35-Ga. 14...T.21-14 T.44/190 G.25/69 T.18/23/0/221 G.16/34/1/174 T.0 G.0)
(07-TENN. +1' 35-14 06-Tenn. -2' 51-33 05-Ga. +3 27-14...SR: Tennessee 20-15-2)
SOUTHERN CAL 41 - Arizona State 10—If Dennis Erickson looks more
bewildered than Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson these days, it’s because the
once-potent ASU “O” has lost its compass, with poor OL play and absence of
credible infantry diversion grounding Sun Devil attack (just 14.7 ppg last 3
losses). And now ASU might be minus sr. QB Carpenter after he left Berkeley
on crutches last week. That’s hardly a recipe for success vs. hungry SC eager
to ascend polls. TV—ABC
(07-S. Cal 44-ARIZ. ST. 24...S.25-16 S.37/133 A.35/16 S.26/40/0/375 A.22/31/0/243 S.0 A.1)
(07-Usc -3 44-24 06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28...SR: Southern Cal 15-9)
*OREGON 30 - Ucla 20—Although UCLA’s win over Wazzu was about as
exciting as watching C-SPAN during recent bailout debate, Bruins at least
displaying a bit more competence on offensive end as sage o.c. Chow works
around the limitations of juco QB Craft. Meanwhile, Mike Bellotti might have a
fuller deck to utilize at QB if former starter Roper returns to active duty, as
expected, but DeWayne Walker’s quick-footed Westwood defense is
constructed better than most to deal with UO spread.
(07-UCLA 16-Oregon 0...O.12-10 U.51/156 O.39/43 O.11/39/3/105 U.4/17/2/64 U.0 O.1)
(07-UCLA +1' 16-0 06-OREGON -9' 30-20...SR: UCLA 39-22)
MICHIGAN 37 - Toledo 13—Michigan responded with wins after each of its
first two losses, and expect Rich Rodriguez to elicit a solid effort from his
Wolverines after Illinois humiliated his defense in homecoming game at the Big
House. Certainly, the Michigan spread should find some holes in shoddy
Toledo defense that yielded 41 ppg against Ball St., FIU, Fresno and Arizona.
Rockets have dropped 11 of last 12 visiting non-conference opponents.
(FIRST MEETING)
NORTH CAROLINA 34 - Notre Dame 23—Acknowledge recent Irish uptick.
Lights going on for blue-chip soph QB Clausen (622 YP, 6 TDP & no ints. last
2 games), and improved defense permitting only 19 ppg. However, inclined to
make Domers prove it on road, where they fell by DDs at Mich. State in only trip
so far. Athletic Carolina stop unit has 11 ints. in last 4 games, and soph
Draughn (109 YR last week) an emerging ground complement to Tar Heels’ topnotch
WR corps. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(06-NOTRE DAME -25 46-25...SR: Notre Dame 16-1)
*AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 7—Though disgruntled Auburn mentor Tuberville
promised to make “immediate changes” following discouraging 14-13 loss at
Vandy, still must “lay it” vs. mistake-prone Arkansas (-8 TO margin), which has
been outscored 139-31 in 3 SEC losses so far. Just a hunch, but no surprise
if Tigers de-emphasize the spread and revert back to their tried and true ground
assault vs. Hogs frosh-laden front 7 (dead last in SEC rushing defense).
Meanwhile, floundering Arkansas attack (two meaningful TDs last 3 games)
gets stuffed by nasty Tiger defense (11 ppg).
(07-Aub. 9-ARK. 7...Au.21-11 Au.53/189 Ar.25/67 Ar.13/27/1/126 Au.13/23/0/101 Au.1 Ar.0)
(07-Aub. +3 9-7 06-Ark. +15 27-10 05-Aub. -7' 34-17...SR: Auburn 10-6-1)
NEVADA 52 - New Mexico State 27—Now that Nevada “Pistol” firing live
ammunition once more (1127 yards and 49 ppg the last two weeks!), Wolf Pack
and hot QB Kaepernick quite capable of extending margin. Besides, there are
more dimensions to Pistol (7th in national rush stats) than offered by QB
Holbrook and Hal Mumme’s one-dimensional NMSU Air Raid, which hasn’t
traveled well (Aggies only 5-13 as road dog since ‘05). Note how Pistol has
tallied 45 ppg last 3 in series, and how Chris Ault’s teams usually take care of
business as Reno chalk (13-2 in role since ‘04!).
(07-Nev. 40-NMS 38...Nm.29-23 Nv.47/285 Nm.30/103 Nm.35/49/0/407 Nv.15/28/1/237 Nv. 1 Nm.1)
(07-Nevada -6' 40-38 06-NEVADA -17' 48-21 05-Nevada -9' 48-24...SR: Nevada 10-1)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Miami-Ohio 13—With NI feeding off competitive
13-9 loss at Tennessee, don’t mind laying it vs. still-meandering Miami, a
bankroll-depleting 1-7 vs. spread last 8 on board. RedHawks pedestrian attack
(10 ppg vs. FBS squads) makes no headway vs. hard-hitting, sr.-laden Huskie
defense permitting just 1 TD over last 13 Qs! Miami’s soft-covering 2ndary only
1 “pick” last 4 games.
(06-N. Illinois -13' 28-25 05-N. ILLINOIS -3 38-27...SR: Miami-Ohio 7-5)
*BYU 27 - New Mexico 12—We’re not expecting any hiccups from BYU as it
continues on course in BCS quest. But quirky series trends vs. New Mexico
(host team has failed to cover last 6 meetings) and incestuous nature of rivalry
vs. Lobos (Bronco Mendenhall once served on Rocky Long’s UNM staff) make us reluctant
to lay significant number, especially with TCU showdown just 5 days hence for Cougs. Scaled-back
Lobo “O” (backup QB Gruner mostly handing off these days) can slow pace and keep UNM within
earshot.
(07-Byu 31-N. MEX. 24...B.21-16 N.36/115 B.43/112 B.18/40/1/251 N.20/38/2/231 B.1 N.3)
(07-Byu -4 31-24 06-BYU -26' 42-17 05-Byu +7' 27-24...SR: BYU 42-14-1)
Arizona 24 - STANFORD 22—Mike Stoops not taking any prisoners in quest
to save his job (UA win margin 38 ppg!). But Wildcats cruising through with
much easier schedule than Stanford, which is 2-0 SU at home. RB Gerhart
gives Cardinal valuable balance on offense.
(07-Stan. 21-ARIZ. 20...S.21-20 A.32/130 S.45/96 A.28/41/1/238 S.19/27/2/181 S.1 A.1)
(07-Stanford +13 21-20 06-Arizona -3' 20-7 05-Stanford +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-10)
*Bowling Green 35 - AKRON 28—BG QB Tyler Sheehan has completed 47
of 69 passes for 584 yds., 4 TDs and no ints. the last 2 games, and expect HC
Gregg Brandon to have Falcons primed after their shocking loss at home to
20½-point dog Eastern Michigan. Akron QB Chris Jacquemain has gotten
sloppy the last month, throwing 8 ints. in last 4 games; Zips’ run game has
deserted them (162 yards in last 2 games).
(07-B. GREEN 44-Akron 20...B.28-25 A.46/243 B.38/216 B.27/37/0/301 A.14/31/2/192 B.0 A.2)
(07-BGU -6' 44-20 06-AKRON -8 35-28 05-Akron +14 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 9-7)
Ohio 30 - KENT STATE 21—Kent HC Doug Martin’s crew is 4-17 vs. the
number last 21 on the line and and 1-12 SU last 13, so see little percentage in
backing Flashes. Ohio U. just 1-5 SU this season, but Frank Solich’s bunch has
just 1 spread loss in ‘08, and QB Boo Jackson has 9 TDP in 4 games since
taking over as starter for the injured Theo Scott.
(07-Kent St. 33-OHIO 25...K.25-16 K.50/233 O.30/88 O.22/40/2/271 K.12/25/0/169 K.0 O.0)
(07-Ksu -2' 33-25 06-Ohio +6' 17-7 05-OHIO -4 35-32...SR: Ohio 37-21-2)
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17—Despite hanging tough at West Virginia last
week, regressing Rutgers has to be discouraged by its 1-4 start (only win over
Morgan State). Much prefer more cohesive Cincy, as crafty HC Kelly (27-10-3
vs. line since 2005!) continues to push the right buttons. Yes, Bearcats down
to third-string QB. But experience the only edge struggling Scarlet Knight sr.
signal caller Teel has on resourceful RS frosh counterpart Chazz Anderson (2
TDP, 1 TDR in win at Marshall).
(07-Cincy 28-RUT. 23...R.24-22 C.40/150 R.43/98 R.22/38/3/334 C.20/37/1/257 C.2 R.1)
(07-Cincy +3' 28-23 06-CINCY +6' 30-11 05-RUTGERS -13' 44-9...SR: Rutgers 7-5-1)
TEXAS TECH 56 - Nebraska 27—Nebraska HC Bo Pelini has taken the
blame for last week’s 52-17 loss to Missouri, apologizing to his team and the
state of Nebraska. But he better hold up on the self-flagellation until he is able
to add more talent to his defense, especially the secondary. TT marksman
Graham Harrell (6 TDP in 3 Qs last week at K-State) should attack with repeated
success, especially with RBs Woods & Batch providing more punch TY. (05-Texas
Tech -4 34-31...SR: Nebraska 7-2)
KANSAS 34 - Colorado 16—Colorado, which has lost two of its best young
blockers, is absorbing the attrition of three straight tough games. Buffs can
expect no relief vs. the veteran KU defense that was flat at the outset of last
week’s 35-33 escape at Iowa State, giving up first 20 points. Jayhawk ground
game still inconsistent, but QB Reesing (70.2%, 14 TDs) and his receivers are
not. CU 3-11 last 14 as dog. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-Kansas 19-COLO. 14...C.19-17 K.33/180 C.33/66 C.27/45/2/287 K.20/29/0/153 K.2 C.1)
(07-Kansas -3' 19-14 06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLORADO -15' 44-13...SR: Colorado 41-23-3)
*Penn State 20 - WISCONSIN 19—Back-to-back losses to Michigan and
Ohio State have diminished early-season enthusiasm of Badger fans.
However, this is Penn State’s most serious test of the season, and despite loss
to Ohio State, Camp Randall remains a tough place to play. Nittany Lions have
a lot of ways to hurt opponents, but after seeing Buckeye QB Pryor & RB Beanie
Wells last week, Badger “D” will make adjustments for Penn State’s similar
weapons. REG. TV—ABC
(07-PENN ST. 38-Wis. 7...P.27-17 P.47/221 W.34/87 W.17/34/2/244 P.16/29/0/216 P.1 W.1)
(07-PSU -7 38-7 06-WISC. -7 13-3 05-PSU -12 35-14...SR: Wisconsin 8-5)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Ucf 14—Psychology dicey for Hurricanes, who, after
spotting Florida State to 24-0 lead, saw their furious second-half rally fall just
short against hated rival last week. Still, inclined to lay fair price with more
explosive Miami, which can’t afford to let ambitious upstate UCF gain any
recruiting traction in south Florida. Punchless Knights have scored only 3 TDs
in last 3 road games. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(FIRST MEETING)
*FLORIDA 30 - Lsu 16—UF’s highly-combustible attack still not running on all
cylinders (Tim Tebow says “We don’t want to peak too early; we’re just fine.”’),
but anticipate revenge-minded Gators rising to the occasion. Expect Tebow &
his speedy corps of WRs to burn LSU’s new set of CBs, who’ve had some
communication breakdowns. On other side, Tigers inexperienced QB Lee can’t
rely much on play-action, with SEC-leading RB Scott (535 YR, 7.5 ypc) hardpressed
to pick up early-down yds. vs. UF’s tenacious front 7 (3.2 ypc). Urban
Meyer is 22-2 SU in “The Swamp,” with 21 victories by 7 pts. or more.
(07-LSU 28-Florida 24...L.25-19 L.52/247 F.32/156 F.12/26/1/158 L.14/28/1/144 L.0 F.1)
(07-LSU -7' 28-24 06-FLORIDA -1 23-10 05-LSU -6 21-17...SR: Florida 28-23-3) TV-CBS
*SAN JOSE STATE 38 - Utah State 17—Recent efforts confirming reports
from WAC sources who have insisted there is more bite to new-look USU attack
and its option looks, thanks to soph QB Borel, who dazzled BYU defenders more
than once with his footwork last week. But SJSU usually a reliable proposition
at home (where it has covered 9 in a row), and leaky Utag “D” likely exposed by
maturing Spartan juco QB Reed and San Jose OL that mended various hurts
during last week’s bye. TV-ESPNU
(07-S. Jose St. 23-USU 20...S.30-15 U.39/175 S.32/98 S.35/48/2/426 U.11/21/2/78 S.0 U.0)
(07-Sjs +3 23-20 06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 19-10-1)
*Tulsa 62 - SMU 28—Malleable Mustang “D” one of country’s worst units, and
scattershot true frosh SMU QB Mitchell has already been picked off 15 times.
Pointspread imposing, but buck juggernaut Tulsa (56 ppg & 596 ypg—both tops
in nation!) at your own peril.
(07-TULSA 29-Smu 23...T.28-20 S.47/158 T.33/102 T.27/45/2/336 S.17/35/1/192 T.3 S.0)
(07-TULSA -13' 29-23 06-SMU +6 34-24 05-TULSA -14' 20-13...SR: SMU 10-5)
*Boise State 34 - SOUTHERN MISS 20—USM in payback mode, but Boise
showed improved “roadability” in stunning 37-32 victory at Oregon Sept. 20.
However, Broncos traveling a long way to lay double digits on grass vs. USM
team with very capable ground weapon in quick jr. Damion Fletcher (710 YR).
(07-BOISE 38-S. Miss 16...B.23-15 B.41/199 S.36/116 B.19/28/1/307 S.16/31/0/202 B.1 S.1)
(07-BOISE STATE -10' 38-16...SR: Boise State 1-0)
*UTEP 35 - Tulane 26—Tough to make “technical” case for UTEP, which is
bankroll-busting 1-13 its last 14 laying points! But psychology & fundamentals
favor melding Miners. Host’s confidence bolstered by two straight wins, while
Green Wave licking its wounds after humbling blowout home loss to Army. And
underrated UTEP soph QB Vittatoe (7 TDP, only 1 int. last 2 games) has enough
weapons to trump Tulane jr. RB André Anderson (483 YR in last 3).
(07-TULANE 34-Utep 19...U.20-19 T.45/208 U.24/104 U.28/45/1/308 T.16/23/0/277 T.0 U.0)
(07-TULANE +4 34-19 06-UTEP -13 34-20 05-Utep -7 45-21 at Ruston...SR: UTEP 2-1)
*Air Force 34 - SAN DIEGO STATE 16—Acknowledge that SDSU has pulled
the occasional surprise on Chuck Long’s watch, but such upsets have been
outnumbered by the unsightly efforts (such as allowing Air Force to rush for 569
yards in LY’s Falcon blowout at Colorado Springs). And if RS frosh QB Lindley
can’t make post due to shoulder injury, one-dimensional Aztecs (118th in
rushing) unlikely to compensate. AF is 12-2 vs. line vs. non-Navy opposition
since HC Calhoun arrived LY.
(07-A. FORCE 55-Sds 23...A.30-21 A.64/569 S.35/96 S.29/47/1/410 A.8/14/1/101 A.0 S.2)
(07-AFA -12 55-23 06-SDS +13 19-12 05-AFA -7' 41-29...SR: Air Force 17-9)
*FRESNO STATE 49 - Idaho 10—There might be a price at which we could get
interested in Idaho. But since Santa Claus probably has other things on his
mind, would rather keep going against outmanned Vandals, who have
covered 1 of last 14 on board. Good chance for Fresno to take out some
frustrations after mortifying home loss to Hawaii featuring 6 TOs and pair of
late FG misses by PK Goesling.
(07-Fres. St. 37-IDAHO 24...F.25-19 I.45/279 F.47/238 F.17/22/0/178 I.9/26/0/144 F.2 I.2)
(07-Fsu -9' 37-24 06-FSU -11' 34-0 05-Fsu -28' 40-10...SR: Fresno State 6-4)
*HAWAII 28 - Louisiana Tech 16—It’s not the Red Gun we’ve been used to
seeing the past few years, but Hawaii “O” uncovering some new dimensions
nonetheless, thanks to mobile QB Funaki, who was near-flawless (2 TDP, plus
79 YR) in last week’s upset win at Fresno. Meanwhile, new La Tech QB Bennett
(Ga. Tech transfer) has completed just 39% in first month on new job. Sluggish
Bulldogs no TDs in 8 Qs on road thus far.
(07-Haw. 45-LA. TECH 44 (OT)...H.32-24 L.49/223 H.20/45 H.43/61/1/548 L.23/36/0/187 H.2 L.0)
(07-Hawaii -27' 45-44 (OT) 06-HAWAII -37' 61-17 05-TECH -3' 46-14...SR: Hawaii 5-1)
ADDED GAMES
*Ball State 41 - WESTERN KENTUCKY 16—ENORMOUS firepower edge
owned by Ball State, which has outgained impotent host WKU by more than 200
ypg! Undefeated Cards have covered 16 of last 21 and are ranked in top 25 for
first time in school history.
(07-BSU 35-W. Ky. 12...W.23-19 W.54/222 B.29/75 B.21/31/1/288 W.22/33/3/189 B.2 W.0)
(07-BALL STATE (NL) 35-12...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - La.-Monroe 20—Though Monroe’s defense made
Lafayette’s Tyrell Fenroy (297 YR) look like Barry Sanders last week, would still
take higher price with Warhawk squad equipped to trade points most of way
behind multi-talented QB Lancaster, who accounted for 244 yds. in 30-13 series
home win LY. ASU is 0-4 as DD home chalk since ‘98, and dog in series has
covered 8 straight!
(07-LA.-MON. 30-Asu 13...L.23-16 L.52/235 A.28/170 A.14/35/2/206 L.15/23/0/195 L.0 A.1)
(07-ULM +2' 30-13 06-ASU -6' 10-6 05-ULM +3 31-27...SR: Arkansas State 16-13)
*FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Middle Tennessee State 19—Whereas we weren’t sure
what to make of FIU’s surprising romp at Toledo two weeks ago, we’re now
ready to put the “buy” signal on much-improved Golden Panthers after last
week’s rout of North Texas. MTSU hard-pressed to survive until absent Blue
Raider infantry (117th in rushing, only 1.98 ypc) provides adequate help for
QB Craddock.
(07-MTS 47-Fla. Intl. 6...M.16-8 M.45/147 F.28/72 M.12/25/0/258 F.13/35/2/73 M.3 F.2)
(07-MTS -9' 47-6 06-MTS -10 7-6 05-FIU +6' 35-31...SR: Middle Tennessee St. 2-1)
*La.-Lafayette 45 - NORTH TEXAS 17—Anybody interested in North Texas?
Not very Mean Green have lost by at least 30 points in each of their first 6 games!
(07-LA.-LAF. 38-N. Tx. 29...N.25-14 L.36/300 N.40/144 N.35/57/3/383 L.10/20/0/114 L.2 N.1)
(07-ULL -8' 38-29 06-Ntu +11 16-7 05-Ull -4 31-28...SR: North Texas 8-4)
<!-- / message -->
KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA Plus over Illinois
WESTERN MICHIGAN by 8 over Buffalo
VANDERBILT by 12 over Mississippi State
OREGON STATE by 39 over Washington State
Minnesota 30 - ILLINOIS 31—Illinois could be caught in an emotional
trough after destruction of Michigan in Ann Arbor last week. Minnesota has
covered 4 straight and had its starting OL intact for the first time this season
against Indiana, and Gopher defense is among most improved units in the
country with infusion of jucos and leadership & preparation provided by new d.c.
Ted Roof. Minny got a little dinged-up against the Hoosiers, but QB Adam
Weber (bruised knee) and WR Steve Decker (knee to head) both returned to Indy game
and are expected to be ready to go. TV-ESPN
(07-Ill. 44-MINN. 17...I.27-18 I.50/448 M.31/95 M.21/35/1/242 I.14/21/1/207 I.1 M.0)
(07-Illinois -11' 44-17...SR: Minnesota 31-27-3)
Western Michigan 34 - BUFFALO 26—Highly-regarded HC Turner Gill
(9-3 vs. spread last 12) has energized moribund Buffalo program and turned
Bulls into one of MAC’s top contenders. Well-schooled WMU still has a lot more
speed & depth on defense, however. No big surprise if Broncos’ cocksure jr.
QB Hiller (69%, 19 TDP & only 4 ints.) outduels careful UB sr. counterpart Willy
(only 3 ints. in last 12 games) and extends WMU win streak to six. (05-WESTERN
MICHIGAN -10' 31-21...SR: Western Michigan 3-0)
Vanderbilt 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 12—Though sizzling Vandy (1st
5-0 start since 1943!) is SEC road chalk for only 2nd time since ‘99, won’t buck
bowl-hungry ‘Dores, who held Auburn scoreless for final 3 Qs of impressive 14-
13 upset in Nashville. MSU’s QB Lee (in his starting debut) likely to make a few
miscues vs. Vandy’s ball-hawking 2ndary (11 ints.), while Bulldog stop unit has
hands full with either Vandy triggerman QB Nickson (see Special Ticker) or
dual-threat Adams. (DNP...SR: Mississippi State 10-7-2)
OREGON STATE 42 - Washington State 3—New Wazzu HC Wulff
could be excused for asking Congress for some extra bailout help to aid his
kittenish Cougars, who have little chance of avoiding embarrassment vs.
competent opposition (of which OSU certainly qualifies) with shaky 3rd-string,
RS frosh QB Lobbestael learning on the job. A lot more going for Beavers, who
narrowly missed scoring second straight major upset (at Utah) and who usually
take care of business at Corvallis (8-2 vs line last 10).
(07-Ore. St. 52-WASH. ST. 17...18-18 O.49/218 W.30/83 W.21/46/7/314 O.17/30/0/213 O.0 W.1)
(07-Osu +3 52-17 06-Wsu -3 13-6 05-OSU -1' 44-33...SR: Washington State 47-42-3)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9
*WAKE FOREST 23 - Clemson 16—Each team had last week off to try to
shake any lingering effects from discouraging home losses in previous game.
Edge to Clemson’s speedy cast of offensive skill performers, as Wake RB Josh
Adams (953 YR & 12 TDs in 2007, just 151 & 2 TY) mired in soph slump so far.
Still, rebuilt Tiger OL keeping sr. QB Harper (just 3 TDP) from recapturing LY’s
form, too. Deacons’ opportunistic defense & special teams (nation-leading 52
takeaways last 1+ seasons!) tip scales in favor of host. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEM. 44-W. For. 10...C.25-21 C.34/145 W.37/83 C.27/36/0/266 W.24/35/1/204 C.0 W.0)
(07-CLEM. -9' 44-10 06-Clem. -16 27-17 05-WFU +6' 31-27...SR: Clemson 56-16-1)
*HOUSTON 45 - Uab 32—Scary matchup for depth-shy UAB defense
(allowing 466 ypg), as there’s little doubt prolific Houston’s quick-trigger soph
QB Keenum (68%, 19 TDP & only 5 ints.) will shred poor-covering Blazer
secondary. Cougs (no covers last 6 as favorite) also frequently find it hard to get
stops, however, so visitor should have enough weapons to hang if versatile but
TO-prone jr. QB Webb avoids giveaways.
(07-Houston 49-UAB 10...H.33-12 H.59/335 U.18/26 H.21/34/0/205 U.12/34/4/198 H.1 U.0)
(07-Houston -13 49-10...SR: UAB 4-2)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10
*Louisville 31 - MEMPHIS 30—Tigers have won 3 straight behind rapidlymaturing
juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week). Louisville defense improved
under new coordinator Ron English, while vulnerable Memphis stop unit
(allowing 5 ypc last 1+ seasons) will have to stack box against juking Card RS
frosh RB Victor Anderson (390 YR on 8 ypc, 5 TDs in last 3 games). But major
edge to host’s deep, experienced cast of WRs (five already have at least 1
TDC). TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Louisville 22-18)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11
East Carolina 24 - VIRGINIA 23—Beleaguered Cavalier HC Groh certainly
not out of the woods at Charlottesville, but can’t ignore possible buy signs for
UVa during last week’s shutout home win over inconsistent Maryland. New QB
soph Verica gaining confidence, oft-injured top RB sr. Peerman is healthy, and
disappointing Cav defense discovering some machismo. Veteran ECU’s
psyche a little fragile, as two straight losses have put the kibosh on earlyseason
BCS buzz.
(06-EAST CAROLINA -6' 31-21...SR: East Carolina 2-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 37 - Syracuse 17—Underrated Mountaineer defense will
hold sway in this game. Still, sputtering WV offense (only 17 ppg in first 4 vs.
FBS foes!) currently pales in comparison to LY’s juggernaut attack that racked
up 40 ppg. Woebegone Syracuse might get just enough out of improving sr. QB
Dantley (6 TDP) & now-healthy sr. RB Brinkley (264 YR in last 2 games) to hang
inside big spread.
(07-W. Va. 55-SYR. 14...W.25-11 W.54/251 S.37/94 W.18/21/0/235 S.6/16/2/108 W.0 S.1)
(07-Wva -27 55-14 06-WVA -25' 41-17 05-Wva +2 15-7...SR: Syracuse 30-25)
INDIANA 21 - Iowa 20—Both of these teams are reeling from 3 straight
losses. Favor QB edge held by Indiana’s Kellen Lewis over Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi.
Hawkeye RB Shonn Greene has 316 YR in his last 2 games, but just 1 TD to
show for it. Conversely, Hoosier speed-merchant RB Thigpen has 4 scores in
the last 2 games, with 3 of those covering more than 70 yards.
(07-Ind. 38-IOWA 20...Ia.22-17 Ia.37/120 In.35/73 In.19/26/1/322 Ia.24/42/1/308 In.1 Ia.1)
(07-Indiana +10 38-20 06-INDIANA +19 31-28 05-IOWA -16 38-21...SR: Iowa 39-26-4
Michigan State 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23—Michigan State RB Ringer was
slowed down by Iowa, and Northwestern defense isn’t bad (3.4 ypc). Wildcats
had a week off to get star RB Sutton near 100%, and QB C.J. Bacher threw for
525 yds. & 5 TDs with 5 ints. against the Spartans last season. NW has covered
last 4 in series, and MSU defense showed some vulnerability on the road this
season, yielding 38 at Cal and 29 at Indiana. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-N’w’rn 48-MSU 41 (OT)...N.29-20 M.32/287 N.34/91 N.38/49/0/520 M.17/31/0/194 N.0 M.0)
(07-Nwu +16 48-41 (OT) 06-Msu -8 41-38 05-Nwu +13 49-14...SR: Michigan State 32-16)
Oklahoma 35 - Texas 22—Early reports indicate penetrating DT DeMarcus
Granger & emerging RS frosh DE Frank Alexander are expected to return to
practice to strengthen the OU defense, so prefer to side with Sooners in battle
of potent unbeatens (both SU & vs. the spread). Both teams get excellent
QBing, but the more established running game and more experienced
secondary of Oklahoma appear to be the biggest edges in this edition of the
Red River Rivalry. OU’s offseason change to a no-huddle attack figures to be
a plus vs. athletic—but young—Longhorn DBs. (at Dallas, TX) TV—ABC
(07-Okla. 28-Texas 21...O.20-16 O.41/170 T.29/61 T.19/26/1/324 O.21/32/0/244 O.0 T.1)
(07-Okla. -12 28-21 06-Tex. -3' 28-10 05-Tex. -14 45-12 all at Dal...SR: Texas 57-40-5)
ARMY 30 - Eastern Michigan 20—Both these long-suffering sides off upset
road wins last week. Army’s new triple-option attack (571 YR last 2 games!)
keeps caissons rolling along for Black Knights and sends defense-shy EMU
(permitted 17 rush TDs in its last 5!) back to drawing board.
(DNP...SR: Army 1-0)
*BAYLOR 27 - Iowa State 26—ISU is 8-4 as a dog under Gene Chizik, who
has developed considerable balance and confidence with his young offense.
But the defense (34, 35 points last two games) is tending to give up points in
bunches—not a good trait vs. BU’s talented Mr. Griffin. Will lean to host SU, but
won’t lay many points.
(05-Baylor +8 23-13...SR: Iowa State 4-3)
South Carolina 24 - KENTUCKY 17—USC confidence restored in SEC
(snapped 6-game conference losing streak) with 31-24 victory at Ole Miss. So,
favor ‘Cock squad that came alive behind QB Smelley (career-best 327 yds. vs.
Rebels), who hit 9 different receivers, including previously-injured WR
McKinley. UK’s still-developing QB Hartline generates few “explosive plays” vs.
tenacious Carolina stop unit, especially with ‘Cocks lock-down CB Captain
Munnerlyn shadowing his favorite target WR Lyons.
07-S. CAR. 38-Ky. 23...K.26-18 K.38/157 S.36/86 S.17/30/0/256 K.23/40/1/227 S.1 K.3)
(07-USC -4 38-23 06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16...SR: South Carolina 12-6-1)
Utah 37 - WYOMING 6—Although Joe Glenn ditched his recent Wyo QB
merry-go-round last week at Albuquerque (last year’s starter Sween went all the
way vs. Lobos, as opposed to the 4 who took snaps previous week vs. Bowling
Green), it didn’t help woebegone Cowboys, who were blanked and now haven’t
covered a game in 13 months (0-13-1 vs. line last 14!). And doubt Kyle
Whittingham will show any mercy, recalling Glenn’s “one-fingered salute” to
Utes during LY’s 50-0 Utah romp.
(07-UTAH 50-Wyo. 0...U.22-12 U.51/278 W.30/37 U.19/32/1/227 W.13/32/2/85 U.0 W.3)
(07-UTAH -13' 50-0 06-WYOMING +3' 31-15 05-UTAH -3 43-13...SR: Utah 48-32-1)
Kansas State 31 - TEXAS A&M 30—Each team should be able to exploit the
other’s porous defense after A&M gave up 56 points last week at Oklahoma
State and K-State gave up 58 vs. Texas Tech! A&M defense is lacking in
speed, while Wildcats still have tackling problems, even after HC Prince has
replaced half his starters with some prized newcomers.
(05-Texas A&M -5 30-28...SR: Texas A&M 8-4)
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 24 - Temple 19—Temple apparently found a stopgap
solution to QB Adam DiMichele’s injury with RS frosh Chester Stewart
stepping up to throw 3 TDPs in upset at Miami-O., despite missing practice
during the week due to a sore ankle. Owl defense has toughened up since
DiMichele was hurt, allowing just 17 points in 2 games, and Temple is 4-1-1 vs.
the number this season, 17-9-1 against the points last 27, and 11-3-1 last 15 vs.
MAC teams under HC Al Golden. CMU QB LeFevour always dangerous, but
Owls playing with purpose. (06-Central Michigan -19 42-26...SR: Central Michigan 1-0)
OHIO STATE 42 - Purdue 16—The Terrelle Pryor era is well underway at
Ohio State, while vet Purdue star QB Curtis Painter appears to be on thin ice
with lame duck HC Joe Tiller after being pulled last week against Penn State.
Pryor’s multi-dimensional qualities and return to health of Buckeye RB Beanie
Wells (274 total YR vs. Minny & Wisconsin) could overwhelm Boilermaker
defense that ranks 108th. Purdue has dropped 6 of last 7 spread decisions.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Ohio St. 23-PURDUE 7...O.20-15 O.45/181 P.17/4 P.31/60/0/268 O.17/29/3/200 O.0 P.1)
(07-Ohio State -7 23-7...SR: Ohio State 36-12-2)
Tcu 28 - COLORADO STATE 10—To its credit, CSU has thus far endured
fewer growing pains under new HC Fairchild than MWC sources envisioned.
But the fun could end vs. TCU and its swarming, top-rated defense (only 209
ypg!) that has throttled Rams in recent meetings. Expect Frogs to stonewall RB
G. Johnson and keep CSU QB Farris on the run, and Gary Patterson very comfy
with fact he can win with two QBs (former starter Jackson effective in relief of
soph Dalton in last week’s romp past SDSU).
(07-TCU 24-Colo. St. 12...T.23-16 T.48/201 C.28/55 C.21/39/3/216 T.16/32/0/197 T.2 C.0)
(07-TCU -10 24-12 06-Tcu -9' 45-14 05-TCU -7 33-6...SR: TCU 4-1)
*MISSOURI 48 - Oklahoma State 30—In a shootout, don’t mind siding with
host, which also has the most guns. Mizzou has scored in 19 of 20 Qs TY, and
the Tigers have now gone 49 straight possessions with no three-and-outs. MU
never punted last week at Nebraska. Yes, OSU has scored 56 ppg its last four,
but the Cowboys have yet to face a tough foe on the road. MU 12-3 last 15 when
favored, and HC Pinkel says this is his best OL in Columbia. CABLE TV—
ESPN (05-Missouri -4' 38-31...SR: Missouri 27-21)
GEORGIA 31 - Tennessee 13—Following disappointing 41-30 Athens loss
vs. Bama, pumped-up, rested UGA likely to continue its superior play following
a bye week (6-1 vs. spread last 7 in scheduling spot) in double-revenge game
vs. UT. Dawgs efficient QB Stafford (60%, 7 TDs, 1 int.) owns enormous edge
over Vols untested 6-4 soph QB Stephens (just 1 TD vs. Northern Ill.),
inadequately supported by sagging ground game mustering a scant 69 yds. vs.
Huskies. If UGA’s star RB Moreno able to go (check status), Richt’s squad pulls
away from still-troubled, offensively-stagnant UT (1 meaningful TD in two SEC
games). TV—CBS
(07-TENN. 35-Ga. 14...T.21-14 T.44/190 G.25/69 T.18/23/0/221 G.16/34/1/174 T.0 G.0)
(07-TENN. +1' 35-14 06-Tenn. -2' 51-33 05-Ga. +3 27-14...SR: Tennessee 20-15-2)
SOUTHERN CAL 41 - Arizona State 10—If Dennis Erickson looks more
bewildered than Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson these days, it’s because the
once-potent ASU “O” has lost its compass, with poor OL play and absence of
credible infantry diversion grounding Sun Devil attack (just 14.7 ppg last 3
losses). And now ASU might be minus sr. QB Carpenter after he left Berkeley
on crutches last week. That’s hardly a recipe for success vs. hungry SC eager
to ascend polls. TV—ABC
(07-S. Cal 44-ARIZ. ST. 24...S.25-16 S.37/133 A.35/16 S.26/40/0/375 A.22/31/0/243 S.0 A.1)
(07-Usc -3 44-24 06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28...SR: Southern Cal 15-9)
*OREGON 30 - Ucla 20—Although UCLA’s win over Wazzu was about as
exciting as watching C-SPAN during recent bailout debate, Bruins at least
displaying a bit more competence on offensive end as sage o.c. Chow works
around the limitations of juco QB Craft. Meanwhile, Mike Bellotti might have a
fuller deck to utilize at QB if former starter Roper returns to active duty, as
expected, but DeWayne Walker’s quick-footed Westwood defense is
constructed better than most to deal with UO spread.
(07-UCLA 16-Oregon 0...O.12-10 U.51/156 O.39/43 O.11/39/3/105 U.4/17/2/64 U.0 O.1)
(07-UCLA +1' 16-0 06-OREGON -9' 30-20...SR: UCLA 39-22)
MICHIGAN 37 - Toledo 13—Michigan responded with wins after each of its
first two losses, and expect Rich Rodriguez to elicit a solid effort from his
Wolverines after Illinois humiliated his defense in homecoming game at the Big
House. Certainly, the Michigan spread should find some holes in shoddy
Toledo defense that yielded 41 ppg against Ball St., FIU, Fresno and Arizona.
Rockets have dropped 11 of last 12 visiting non-conference opponents.
(FIRST MEETING)
NORTH CAROLINA 34 - Notre Dame 23—Acknowledge recent Irish uptick.
Lights going on for blue-chip soph QB Clausen (622 YP, 6 TDP & no ints. last
2 games), and improved defense permitting only 19 ppg. However, inclined to
make Domers prove it on road, where they fell by DDs at Mich. State in only trip
so far. Athletic Carolina stop unit has 11 ints. in last 4 games, and soph
Draughn (109 YR last week) an emerging ground complement to Tar Heels’ topnotch
WR corps. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(06-NOTRE DAME -25 46-25...SR: Notre Dame 16-1)
*AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 7—Though disgruntled Auburn mentor Tuberville
promised to make “immediate changes” following discouraging 14-13 loss at
Vandy, still must “lay it” vs. mistake-prone Arkansas (-8 TO margin), which has
been outscored 139-31 in 3 SEC losses so far. Just a hunch, but no surprise
if Tigers de-emphasize the spread and revert back to their tried and true ground
assault vs. Hogs frosh-laden front 7 (dead last in SEC rushing defense).
Meanwhile, floundering Arkansas attack (two meaningful TDs last 3 games)
gets stuffed by nasty Tiger defense (11 ppg).
(07-Aub. 9-ARK. 7...Au.21-11 Au.53/189 Ar.25/67 Ar.13/27/1/126 Au.13/23/0/101 Au.1 Ar.0)
(07-Aub. +3 9-7 06-Ark. +15 27-10 05-Aub. -7' 34-17...SR: Auburn 10-6-1)
NEVADA 52 - New Mexico State 27—Now that Nevada “Pistol” firing live
ammunition once more (1127 yards and 49 ppg the last two weeks!), Wolf Pack
and hot QB Kaepernick quite capable of extending margin. Besides, there are
more dimensions to Pistol (7th in national rush stats) than offered by QB
Holbrook and Hal Mumme’s one-dimensional NMSU Air Raid, which hasn’t
traveled well (Aggies only 5-13 as road dog since ‘05). Note how Pistol has
tallied 45 ppg last 3 in series, and how Chris Ault’s teams usually take care of
business as Reno chalk (13-2 in role since ‘04!).
(07-Nev. 40-NMS 38...Nm.29-23 Nv.47/285 Nm.30/103 Nm.35/49/0/407 Nv.15/28/1/237 Nv. 1 Nm.1)
(07-Nevada -6' 40-38 06-NEVADA -17' 48-21 05-Nevada -9' 48-24...SR: Nevada 10-1)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Miami-Ohio 13—With NI feeding off competitive
13-9 loss at Tennessee, don’t mind laying it vs. still-meandering Miami, a
bankroll-depleting 1-7 vs. spread last 8 on board. RedHawks pedestrian attack
(10 ppg vs. FBS squads) makes no headway vs. hard-hitting, sr.-laden Huskie
defense permitting just 1 TD over last 13 Qs! Miami’s soft-covering 2ndary only
1 “pick” last 4 games.
(06-N. Illinois -13' 28-25 05-N. ILLINOIS -3 38-27...SR: Miami-Ohio 7-5)
*BYU 27 - New Mexico 12—We’re not expecting any hiccups from BYU as it
continues on course in BCS quest. But quirky series trends vs. New Mexico
(host team has failed to cover last 6 meetings) and incestuous nature of rivalry
vs. Lobos (Bronco Mendenhall once served on Rocky Long’s UNM staff) make us reluctant
to lay significant number, especially with TCU showdown just 5 days hence for Cougs. Scaled-back
Lobo “O” (backup QB Gruner mostly handing off these days) can slow pace and keep UNM within
earshot.
(07-Byu 31-N. MEX. 24...B.21-16 N.36/115 B.43/112 B.18/40/1/251 N.20/38/2/231 B.1 N.3)
(07-Byu -4 31-24 06-BYU -26' 42-17 05-Byu +7' 27-24...SR: BYU 42-14-1)
Arizona 24 - STANFORD 22—Mike Stoops not taking any prisoners in quest
to save his job (UA win margin 38 ppg!). But Wildcats cruising through with
much easier schedule than Stanford, which is 2-0 SU at home. RB Gerhart
gives Cardinal valuable balance on offense.
(07-Stan. 21-ARIZ. 20...S.21-20 A.32/130 S.45/96 A.28/41/1/238 S.19/27/2/181 S.1 A.1)
(07-Stanford +13 21-20 06-Arizona -3' 20-7 05-Stanford +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-10)
*Bowling Green 35 - AKRON 28—BG QB Tyler Sheehan has completed 47
of 69 passes for 584 yds., 4 TDs and no ints. the last 2 games, and expect HC
Gregg Brandon to have Falcons primed after their shocking loss at home to
20½-point dog Eastern Michigan. Akron QB Chris Jacquemain has gotten
sloppy the last month, throwing 8 ints. in last 4 games; Zips’ run game has
deserted them (162 yards in last 2 games).
(07-B. GREEN 44-Akron 20...B.28-25 A.46/243 B.38/216 B.27/37/0/301 A.14/31/2/192 B.0 A.2)
(07-BGU -6' 44-20 06-AKRON -8 35-28 05-Akron +14 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 9-7)
Ohio 30 - KENT STATE 21—Kent HC Doug Martin’s crew is 4-17 vs. the
number last 21 on the line and and 1-12 SU last 13, so see little percentage in
backing Flashes. Ohio U. just 1-5 SU this season, but Frank Solich’s bunch has
just 1 spread loss in ‘08, and QB Boo Jackson has 9 TDP in 4 games since
taking over as starter for the injured Theo Scott.
(07-Kent St. 33-OHIO 25...K.25-16 K.50/233 O.30/88 O.22/40/2/271 K.12/25/0/169 K.0 O.0)
(07-Ksu -2' 33-25 06-Ohio +6' 17-7 05-OHIO -4 35-32...SR: Ohio 37-21-2)
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17—Despite hanging tough at West Virginia last
week, regressing Rutgers has to be discouraged by its 1-4 start (only win over
Morgan State). Much prefer more cohesive Cincy, as crafty HC Kelly (27-10-3
vs. line since 2005!) continues to push the right buttons. Yes, Bearcats down
to third-string QB. But experience the only edge struggling Scarlet Knight sr.
signal caller Teel has on resourceful RS frosh counterpart Chazz Anderson (2
TDP, 1 TDR in win at Marshall).
(07-Cincy 28-RUT. 23...R.24-22 C.40/150 R.43/98 R.22/38/3/334 C.20/37/1/257 C.2 R.1)
(07-Cincy +3' 28-23 06-CINCY +6' 30-11 05-RUTGERS -13' 44-9...SR: Rutgers 7-5-1)
TEXAS TECH 56 - Nebraska 27—Nebraska HC Bo Pelini has taken the
blame for last week’s 52-17 loss to Missouri, apologizing to his team and the
state of Nebraska. But he better hold up on the self-flagellation until he is able
to add more talent to his defense, especially the secondary. TT marksman
Graham Harrell (6 TDP in 3 Qs last week at K-State) should attack with repeated
success, especially with RBs Woods & Batch providing more punch TY. (05-Texas
Tech -4 34-31...SR: Nebraska 7-2)
KANSAS 34 - Colorado 16—Colorado, which has lost two of its best young
blockers, is absorbing the attrition of three straight tough games. Buffs can
expect no relief vs. the veteran KU defense that was flat at the outset of last
week’s 35-33 escape at Iowa State, giving up first 20 points. Jayhawk ground
game still inconsistent, but QB Reesing (70.2%, 14 TDs) and his receivers are
not. CU 3-11 last 14 as dog. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-Kansas 19-COLO. 14...C.19-17 K.33/180 C.33/66 C.27/45/2/287 K.20/29/0/153 K.2 C.1)
(07-Kansas -3' 19-14 06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLORADO -15' 44-13...SR: Colorado 41-23-3)
*Penn State 20 - WISCONSIN 19—Back-to-back losses to Michigan and
Ohio State have diminished early-season enthusiasm of Badger fans.
However, this is Penn State’s most serious test of the season, and despite loss
to Ohio State, Camp Randall remains a tough place to play. Nittany Lions have
a lot of ways to hurt opponents, but after seeing Buckeye QB Pryor & RB Beanie
Wells last week, Badger “D” will make adjustments for Penn State’s similar
weapons. REG. TV—ABC
(07-PENN ST. 38-Wis. 7...P.27-17 P.47/221 W.34/87 W.17/34/2/244 P.16/29/0/216 P.1 W.1)
(07-PSU -7 38-7 06-WISC. -7 13-3 05-PSU -12 35-14...SR: Wisconsin 8-5)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Ucf 14—Psychology dicey for Hurricanes, who, after
spotting Florida State to 24-0 lead, saw their furious second-half rally fall just
short against hated rival last week. Still, inclined to lay fair price with more
explosive Miami, which can’t afford to let ambitious upstate UCF gain any
recruiting traction in south Florida. Punchless Knights have scored only 3 TDs
in last 3 road games. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(FIRST MEETING)
*FLORIDA 30 - Lsu 16—UF’s highly-combustible attack still not running on all
cylinders (Tim Tebow says “We don’t want to peak too early; we’re just fine.”’),
but anticipate revenge-minded Gators rising to the occasion. Expect Tebow &
his speedy corps of WRs to burn LSU’s new set of CBs, who’ve had some
communication breakdowns. On other side, Tigers inexperienced QB Lee can’t
rely much on play-action, with SEC-leading RB Scott (535 YR, 7.5 ypc) hardpressed
to pick up early-down yds. vs. UF’s tenacious front 7 (3.2 ypc). Urban
Meyer is 22-2 SU in “The Swamp,” with 21 victories by 7 pts. or more.
(07-LSU 28-Florida 24...L.25-19 L.52/247 F.32/156 F.12/26/1/158 L.14/28/1/144 L.0 F.1)
(07-LSU -7' 28-24 06-FLORIDA -1 23-10 05-LSU -6 21-17...SR: Florida 28-23-3) TV-CBS
*SAN JOSE STATE 38 - Utah State 17—Recent efforts confirming reports
from WAC sources who have insisted there is more bite to new-look USU attack
and its option looks, thanks to soph QB Borel, who dazzled BYU defenders more
than once with his footwork last week. But SJSU usually a reliable proposition
at home (where it has covered 9 in a row), and leaky Utag “D” likely exposed by
maturing Spartan juco QB Reed and San Jose OL that mended various hurts
during last week’s bye. TV-ESPNU
(07-S. Jose St. 23-USU 20...S.30-15 U.39/175 S.32/98 S.35/48/2/426 U.11/21/2/78 S.0 U.0)
(07-Sjs +3 23-20 06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 19-10-1)
*Tulsa 62 - SMU 28—Malleable Mustang “D” one of country’s worst units, and
scattershot true frosh SMU QB Mitchell has already been picked off 15 times.
Pointspread imposing, but buck juggernaut Tulsa (56 ppg & 596 ypg—both tops
in nation!) at your own peril.
(07-TULSA 29-Smu 23...T.28-20 S.47/158 T.33/102 T.27/45/2/336 S.17/35/1/192 T.3 S.0)
(07-TULSA -13' 29-23 06-SMU +6 34-24 05-TULSA -14' 20-13...SR: SMU 10-5)
*Boise State 34 - SOUTHERN MISS 20—USM in payback mode, but Boise
showed improved “roadability” in stunning 37-32 victory at Oregon Sept. 20.
However, Broncos traveling a long way to lay double digits on grass vs. USM
team with very capable ground weapon in quick jr. Damion Fletcher (710 YR).
(07-BOISE 38-S. Miss 16...B.23-15 B.41/199 S.36/116 B.19/28/1/307 S.16/31/0/202 B.1 S.1)
(07-BOISE STATE -10' 38-16...SR: Boise State 1-0)
*UTEP 35 - Tulane 26—Tough to make “technical” case for UTEP, which is
bankroll-busting 1-13 its last 14 laying points! But psychology & fundamentals
favor melding Miners. Host’s confidence bolstered by two straight wins, while
Green Wave licking its wounds after humbling blowout home loss to Army. And
underrated UTEP soph QB Vittatoe (7 TDP, only 1 int. last 2 games) has enough
weapons to trump Tulane jr. RB André Anderson (483 YR in last 3).
(07-TULANE 34-Utep 19...U.20-19 T.45/208 U.24/104 U.28/45/1/308 T.16/23/0/277 T.0 U.0)
(07-TULANE +4 34-19 06-UTEP -13 34-20 05-Utep -7 45-21 at Ruston...SR: UTEP 2-1)
*Air Force 34 - SAN DIEGO STATE 16—Acknowledge that SDSU has pulled
the occasional surprise on Chuck Long’s watch, but such upsets have been
outnumbered by the unsightly efforts (such as allowing Air Force to rush for 569
yards in LY’s Falcon blowout at Colorado Springs). And if RS frosh QB Lindley
can’t make post due to shoulder injury, one-dimensional Aztecs (118th in
rushing) unlikely to compensate. AF is 12-2 vs. line vs. non-Navy opposition
since HC Calhoun arrived LY.
(07-A. FORCE 55-Sds 23...A.30-21 A.64/569 S.35/96 S.29/47/1/410 A.8/14/1/101 A.0 S.2)
(07-AFA -12 55-23 06-SDS +13 19-12 05-AFA -7' 41-29...SR: Air Force 17-9)
*FRESNO STATE 49 - Idaho 10—There might be a price at which we could get
interested in Idaho. But since Santa Claus probably has other things on his
mind, would rather keep going against outmanned Vandals, who have
covered 1 of last 14 on board. Good chance for Fresno to take out some
frustrations after mortifying home loss to Hawaii featuring 6 TOs and pair of
late FG misses by PK Goesling.
(07-Fres. St. 37-IDAHO 24...F.25-19 I.45/279 F.47/238 F.17/22/0/178 I.9/26/0/144 F.2 I.2)
(07-Fsu -9' 37-24 06-FSU -11' 34-0 05-Fsu -28' 40-10...SR: Fresno State 6-4)
*HAWAII 28 - Louisiana Tech 16—It’s not the Red Gun we’ve been used to
seeing the past few years, but Hawaii “O” uncovering some new dimensions
nonetheless, thanks to mobile QB Funaki, who was near-flawless (2 TDP, plus
79 YR) in last week’s upset win at Fresno. Meanwhile, new La Tech QB Bennett
(Ga. Tech transfer) has completed just 39% in first month on new job. Sluggish
Bulldogs no TDs in 8 Qs on road thus far.
(07-Haw. 45-LA. TECH 44 (OT)...H.32-24 L.49/223 H.20/45 H.43/61/1/548 L.23/36/0/187 H.2 L.0)
(07-Hawaii -27' 45-44 (OT) 06-HAWAII -37' 61-17 05-TECH -3' 46-14...SR: Hawaii 5-1)
ADDED GAMES
*Ball State 41 - WESTERN KENTUCKY 16—ENORMOUS firepower edge
owned by Ball State, which has outgained impotent host WKU by more than 200
ypg! Undefeated Cards have covered 16 of last 21 and are ranked in top 25 for
first time in school history.
(07-BSU 35-W. Ky. 12...W.23-19 W.54/222 B.29/75 B.21/31/1/288 W.22/33/3/189 B.2 W.0)
(07-BALL STATE (NL) 35-12...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - La.-Monroe 20—Though Monroe’s defense made
Lafayette’s Tyrell Fenroy (297 YR) look like Barry Sanders last week, would still
take higher price with Warhawk squad equipped to trade points most of way
behind multi-talented QB Lancaster, who accounted for 244 yds. in 30-13 series
home win LY. ASU is 0-4 as DD home chalk since ‘98, and dog in series has
covered 8 straight!
(07-LA.-MON. 30-Asu 13...L.23-16 L.52/235 A.28/170 A.14/35/2/206 L.15/23/0/195 L.0 A.1)
(07-ULM +2' 30-13 06-ASU -6' 10-6 05-ULM +3 31-27...SR: Arkansas State 16-13)
*FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Middle Tennessee State 19—Whereas we weren’t sure
what to make of FIU’s surprising romp at Toledo two weeks ago, we’re now
ready to put the “buy” signal on much-improved Golden Panthers after last
week’s rout of North Texas. MTSU hard-pressed to survive until absent Blue
Raider infantry (117th in rushing, only 1.98 ypc) provides adequate help for
QB Craddock.
(07-MTS 47-Fla. Intl. 6...M.16-8 M.45/147 F.28/72 M.12/25/0/258 F.13/35/2/73 M.3 F.2)
(07-MTS -9' 47-6 06-MTS -10 7-6 05-FIU +6' 35-31...SR: Middle Tennessee St. 2-1)
*La.-Lafayette 45 - NORTH TEXAS 17—Anybody interested in North Texas?
Not very Mean Green have lost by at least 30 points in each of their first 6 games!
(07-LA.-LAF. 38-N. Tx. 29...N.25-14 L.36/300 N.40/144 N.35/57/3/383 L.10/20/0/114 L.2 N.1)
(07-ULL -8' 38-29 06-Ntu +11 16-7 05-Ull -4 31-28...SR: North Texas 8-4)
<!-- / message -->
Playbook Week 8:
http://www.ecapftp.com/08pb008.pdf
Midweek Alert
http://www.ecapftp.com/08mw400.pdf
http://www.ecapftp.com/08pb008.pdf
Midweek Alert
http://www.ecapftp.com/08mw400.pdf
Sports Memo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE SPORTS MEMO -
COLLEGE:
ED CASH
ARKANSAS +19 AT AUBURN
Recommendation: Arkansas
I am not sure what Auburn has done to become a 19-point conference favorite this year. They have been horrible offensively, and after losing to Vanderbilt last week for their second conference loss, it is going to be tough for this coaching staff to get the train back on the tracks. There seems to be some disagreement among head coach Tommy Tuberville and OC Tony Franklin about the direction of the offense and who should be at quarterback. I don’t expect things to get better
overnight or even at all this season. This week they face an Arkansas team that is slowly improving in Bobby Petrino’s first year. They were beaten 38-7 last week at home by Florida, but the game was much closer than the final score. It was 17-7 in the fourth quarter and Arkansas was very much in the game, playing
Florida very tough on both sides of the line of scrimmage. It would not surprise
me at all if they broke out with a big game this week at Auburn. Auburn lost two key defenders in the Vandy game to injuries, and we all know that defense is the Tigers’ only strength. Auburn probably scores a few more than its 18 ppg average on the season, but it won’t be enough to cover this week.
ROB VENO
OKLAHOMA -7 VS. TEXAS
Recommendation: Oklahoma
Texas’ pass defense has been labeled as their most pressing concern by almost every college football analyst, and that concern is going to become a reality
on Saturday. The Longhorns pass rush has been able to somewhat mask the inexperience in the defensive backfield but that asset won’t be nearly as productive against OU. On the season, Texas has recorded 19 sacks but 14 of those were against the overmatched offensive lines of Rice and Arkansas. In Oklahoma, they face an opponent which has allowed just five quarterback sacks in 168 pass attempts thus far this season. With time, QB Sam Bradford (72.6% completions, 18 TDs, 3 INTs) and the Sooners ultra-deep and talented
receiving corps will churn their way to 300+ yards and 35+ points. The three-headed ground attack will figure prominently too and the backs will be productive on screen passes. Obviously Texas has very impressive offensive numbers to date also, but they’ll be facing a veteran group that is playing excellent
defense that yields just 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma’s edge in overall defense springs the double-digit win here as they steamroll their way to 6-0.
DONNIE BLACK
ARIZONA STATE +25.5 AT USC
Recommendation: Arizona State
With three consecutive losses the bloom is off this Sun Devils team. Last week Arizona State played a very sloppy game. They had four fumbles (only one of which resulted in a turnover), two interceptions, seven penalties and three sacks allowed. Yet they had an opportunity for the spread cover when the best field goal kicker in the nation lined-up for a 44-yard field-goal attempt. Thomas Weber’s miss was only his second in 35 tries. This week they get four scores, and in our opinion that is too many. Arizona State has played USC tough, losing only two of its last ten meetings with the Trojans by more than 24 points. Senior quarterback Rudy Carpenter suffered
a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter at California but he was able to play for the final 11 minutes. He remains questionable at press time. The story for ASU however should be its defense as they are allowing just 20.8 ppg and 325 ypg. Both are improvements over last season. So while USC is a potentially explosive opponent, we would expect Arizona State to hang tough and keep this one closer than the huge pointspread margin.
BRENT CROW
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
Recommendation: Mississippi State
Give Vanderbilt credit for their tremendous 5-0 start, including three SEC wins over Auburn, South Carolina and Ole Miss. The Commodores have done a great job on defense and special teams and have made just enough plays on offense to get by. Avoiding turnovers is the most important thing Vandy has accomplished this season, something that in the past was always a major issue
against solid competition. This week the Commodores go to Starkville to face the 1-4 Bulldogs, who are coming off a bye week. Mississippi State will be focused and ready to play this week against the 13th-ranked Commodores.
State gave LSU a pretty good battle two weeks ago before losing 34-24. They got a little confidence on offense with Tyson Lee at QB and they should be able to use their size up front to their advantage against the speedy Vandy defense. This just shapes up to be a dangerous game for Vanderbilt after its biggest win in school history, highest ranking and plenty of never-before-seen National media coverage. Mississippi State’s may be 1-4 but the hunger
is still there and this week they’ll hand Vandy its first loss of the season.
MARTY OTTO
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT BUFFALO -1
Recommendation: Buffalo
Buffalo enters this MAC tilt fresh off a bye week of preparation, rested and ready for a WMU team that tops the table in the Western Division at 3-0. But that isn’t the only situational factor that lines up in our favor as Western
Michigan may look ahead to next week’s opponent, their biggest rival, Central Michigan. This is not strictly a situational play, however. Western Michigan’s offense will get all of the press this week as Tim Hiller lights up the scoreboard but don’t sell the Bulls short. Drew Willy is in the midst of setting all kinds of school records, already approaching the 15 TD passes he had in his breakout campaign last year while featuring a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The bye week also afforded RB James Starks a much needed break to get healthy after suffering through a bit of a hip injury that slowed him early on. Although they have a losing record, this is a Bulls team that has fought through a rebuilding defense quite well, hanging around in games against Pitt and Missouri out of conference and taking CMU to the wire on the road. Now back at home I expect them to finally finish one off.
JARED KLEIN
MINNESOTA +11 AT ILLINOIS
Recommendation: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers are one of the hidden gems in the marketplace this season. They’ve gone 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Last week’s victory over Indiana was head coach Tim Brewster’s first Big Ten win and with the way this team is playing, you can tell they are brimming with confidence as they head into this week’s showdown on the road against Illinois. Minnesota is improved in all areas of the game since last season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Gophers would’ve held Indiana to just one first down and 24 total yards at halftime, if not for Marcus Thigpen’s 77-yard touchdown. They forced three turnovers and sacked Ben Chappell
and Kellen Lewis a combined four times. Illinois has not been stellar on defense
and teams have shown they can move the ball against this unit. Michigan, who ranks dead last in the Big Ten in nearly every offensive category, managed to put up 20 points. Now Illinois will have to contend with Minnesota’s spread offense and the Big Ten’s leading receiver Eric Decker, who has put up 696 yards this season. So while Illinois boasts a potent offense with Juice Williams at the helm, the Gophers can move the ball and keep this game within double-digits.
TIM TRUSHEL
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
Recommendation: Mississippi State
During the Summer, in these same pages we called for Vanderbilt to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Without question we were wrong. They now stand at 5-0 for the first time since 1943 and have beaten Auburn, Mississippi and South Carolina. The ESPN Game Day crew made their first-ever visit to Vanderbilt Stadium, which was a sellout and actually had more Commodore fans than Auburn fans. Smartly we have been able to avoid letting our preseason opinion of Vanderbilt influence our regular season game management and we have steered clear of the Commodores since their week one win over Miami (OH). Yet this week the situation to play against Vanderbilt is just too rich. First Vanderbilt comes of its biggest, most important victory
ever. Second, their victories over their SEC opposition have come in quite favorable
situations and or venues. This game at Mississippi State will not. The Bulldogs are off a bye week and with a 1-4 start to the season, this team is hungry and will not look past Vanderbilt. Statistically neither of these two teams come away impressive,
but with the ability to run the ball behind a massive offensive line, we like State’s opportunity to control the line of scrimmage and win this one outright.
ERIN RYNNING
MINNESOTA AT ILLINOIS -11
Recommendation: Illinois
Under Ron Zook, Illinois has had one focus and one focus only: recruit as much talent and speed as possible. The results have paid off as the Illini field one of, if not the most, athletic team in the Big Ten. Minnesota’s Tim Brewster
has adopted the same game plan but in just his second year, the Gophers’ roster top to bottom just doesn’t compare at the moment. Illinois is off a solid confidence-building road win over Michigan, dominating the ground game 191-69. This result was impressive considering the strength of Michigan’s front defensive line. In addition, Illinois’ defense is still adjusting after losing many key players to graduation. Keep in mind also the quality of offense the Illini had faced heading into last week. The bottom line is their ability to run and throw the ball will be too much for the Gophers to contain. Minnesota boasts a 5-1 record, but they’re not ready to break through just yet. The Illini
will find holes in UM’s secondary with their many weapons and I have my doubts about the Gophers’ offense against formidable competition. We’ll ride the Illini as they give the home crowd in Champaign plenty to cheer about
NFL:
TEDDY COVERS
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO -5
O/U 45
Recommendation: San Diego
When Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady became the savior of the franchise, head coach Bill Belichick earned his reputation by parlaying a dominant defense and powerful running game into a Super Bowl title. That was 2001, this is 2008. The Patriots don’t have a strong running game or a dominant defense for Belichick to rely on at this juncture. New England managed only 3.3 yards per carry against the 49ers’ weak run defense last week after gaining only 78 yards on the ground in their ugly loss to Miami. The Pats defense looks older and slower with each passing week and has had consistent coverage problems in the secondary. And let’s not forget that after facing the Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs and 49ers in their first four games of the campaign, this is a huge step up in class for New England. San Diego is once again hungry and desperate, following its own poorly played loss against the Dolphins. Qualcomm Stadium has been rather friendly for the hosts in recent games. The Chargers
are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight home games, winning six of those games by two touchdowns. With revenge on their minds following their playoff ouster in the AFC Championship Game at New England last January, we’ll back the Chargers
FAIRWAY JAY
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA +2.5
O/U 43
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Dolphins delivered another outright underdog winner for us last week, and we’ll shoot for the Falcons to fly this Sunday. Both the Bears and Falcons have surprised
most observers and betting backers, but their success can be linked to success
at the line of scrimmage. Chicago’s run defense is top-5 in the NFL but have not faced a ground attack in the top 25 percent. They will the next two weeks starting with Atlanta’s No. 1 rated rushing attack (180 ypg). Michael Turner comes in off another 100+ rushing performance in the win over Green Bay. We expect speedy Jerious Norwood to be more involved this week as both a runner and pass catcher to offset the Bears’ strength in their front seven. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan is playing poised, delivering the ball with the quickness and accuracy of a seasoned veteran. The Bears offense is in the top 3 in the NFC in yards-per-point, proving their efficiency and ability to score. But after an easy time of it on the road last week facing
the league’s worst defense in Detroit, expect the Bears to be in for a real battle Sunday. Solid situation for Atlanta returning home off a win as an underdog. They are still being undervalued and we’ll take the points against an equal opponent
JARED KLEIN - NHL PREVIEW:
The NHL is going back to the schedule system used before the lockout. Each team will play the other four teams in their division
six times (three home games and three road games) and play the other 10 teams in their conference four times (two home games and two road games). The remaining 18 games will be played against teams in the other conference. That ensures
that each team will play every other team in the league at least one time during the regular season. Right after the lockout, each team played two additional games against the other four teams in their division (four home games, four road games). They still played four games against the 10 teams in the other two divisions in their conference (two home games and two road games). The remaining 10 games were played against 10 teams from the other conference (five at home against one division, five on the road against another division). Teams did not play the five teams in the third division of the other conference. Confusing? Well with the change in schedule,
we can now take advantage of more Western Conference vs. Eastern Conference matchups as the West has dominated over the last three years. I’m also looking forward to this new schedule because I believe it will put added emphasis that for those crucial four-point games between each team’s division rival.
Don’t buy into the ESPN hype of certain teams! – Tampa Bay Under 90.5 Points via The Greek - The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason because of a slew of moves via free agency. Tampa also replaced
Stanley Cup winning coach John Tortorella with ESPN analyst and former coach Barry Melrose. Melrose has been out of coaching since 1996. The Lightning signed Gary Roberts, Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal Radim Vrbata, and Brian Rolston on offense and acquired Matt Carle and Andre Meszaros on defense.
Tampa also couldn’t resist tampering with their goaltending
as Olaf Kolzig was signed to provide leadership for young goaltenders Mike Smith and Kari Ramo. The season point total is at 90.5 which would be a 19.5-point jump from last season after they finished dead last in the Eastern Conference with 71 points. The Lightning will be improved, but so will several other Eastern Conference teams. Play it Under 90.5.
Keep your core intact – Teams that keep the same traditional core of players get off to better starts rather than teams that make wholesale changes. A couple of teams that had very tough starts to last season were the Buffalo Sabres and the Nashville Predators. Much of that had to do with the wholesale changes that were made to the team’s core of players. For Buffalo,
the team lost co-Captains Chris Drury and Daniel Briere and came out very flat, losing eight out of its first 13 games. The same can be said about the Nashville Predators, who lost winger Paul Kariya, goaltender Tomas Vokoun, Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell and captain Kimmo Timonen in the offseason. Because of the changes, the Predators got off to a 2-6 start. Look for the teams that kept their core together over the offseason
to get off to a better start rather than situations like Tampa Bay who went crazy and spent a lot of money in free agency.
A couple of teams that could get off to a solid start this season are the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames. Boston returns seven out of its top nine forwards, the entire defensive core and both goaltenders. The Flames return 10 of their top 12 folders, most of their defense and all star goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff. Both of these teams should have significant value to start the NHL Season.
Injuries/Defections and Player Movements - The Pittsburgh Penguins have already been hit with the injury bug. They lost their top two defensemen before the season even started as Sergei Gonchar will be out for at least four months because of a shoulder injury, and Ryan Whitney until at least January because
of a foot ailment. Those two players combined for over 100 points offensively and Pittsburgh will need young players like Kris Letang and Rob Scuderi to step up. Nashville was hit with a big surprise this offseason as 20-plus goal scorer Alexander
Radulov defected to the KHL in Russia, signing a multiyear
deal. The youngster was a top-six forward and the Predators
will need Patric Hornqvist, who broke Peter Forsberg’s goal scoring record as a rookie in the Swedish Elite League, to step in and fill the void.
It just doesn’t seem fair as the Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings signed the top free agent forward on the market in Marian Hossa. Hossa produced 29 goals and 37 assists in just 72 games last season and should immediately improve an already very potent Detroit attack.
Bold Prediction: The Edmonton Oilers will win the Northwest
Division - I’m very high on the Oilers heading into the season. This was a very young team that suffered a lot of injuries
but somehow managed to go 14-5-1 to end the season and miss the playoffs by only three points. “We probably had our best development year in 12 or 15 years,” president of hockey operations Kevin Lowe was quoted as saying. Tom Gilbert, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov and Kyle Brodziak went from rookies and sophomores to impact
players. Edmonton also added former 30-goal scorer Erik Cole and offensive-minded defensemen Lubomir Visnovsky during the offseason. You also have to take into account that veterans Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray, Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani all missed at least 25 games. As far as the rest of the division goes, I believe most of the competition for the Northwest will come from Calgary with Minnesota, Vancouver and Colorado all taking steps back during the offseason. Look for the Oilers to surprise a lot of people and win the Northwest this season.
TEDDY COVERS - NEWS AND NOTES
Bears - This passing game is much better now than it was a month ago. Chicago has some weapons at receiver, with four different players catching passes of 30 yards or longer; and that production
came on a day when Brandon Lloyd wasn’t healthy enough to suit up. Tight end Greg Olson, Devin Hester, Rashied Davis and Marty Booker give this team more than enough weapons to work with on offense. Kyle Orton had no trouble getting the ball downfield
to his receivers, and the running game has been solid for the most part. This team has more potential than I gave them credit for…as long as the mounting injuries on defense don’t start to destroy their chemistry, as it did last year.
Bucs - Brian Griese was sacked three times in the first half, each time he held the ball too long in the pocket. Maybe he avoided the interception problems that have plagued his last two starts, but Griese is not the type of quarterback capable of leading his team to the promised land. And with no big play threats in the passing game, it was unclear to me why Griese had to hold the ball as long as he did – almost all of his passes were dinks and dunks. 13 of his first 16 pass attempts travelled less than five yards from the line of scrimmage. The passing game worked much better
once Jeff Garcia replaced Griese coming off the bench. Tampa had three defensive touchdowns in their first four games. Monte Kiffin has made it a priority to get quick points with big plays on the defensive side of the football. That means less Cover-2, which the Bucs are running only about 30% of the time this year. It also means more big plays against this defense, as they take more gambles in an effort to create the big momentum-changing
defensive plays.
Falcons - This defensive line is getting pressure; the secondary is covering downfield – I’m very impressed with this defensive effort. I also like this punter, Michael Koenin, dropping punts inside
the 20-yard line and helping the Falcons win the field position
war. And Atlanta’s offensive line is giving Matt Ryan all day to throw the football, another unit that is most assuredly playing at a high level these days. There was no home/road dichotomy here, their first strong performance on the road in 2008. These Falcons are arguably the NFC’s most improved team compared to last year’s 4-12 debacle.
49ers - This secondary clearly has some issues against big play passing attacks. Last week, we saw the Saints throw deep repeatedly
and with great success against this defense. It was a similar
story here, with Randy Moss burning the Niners deep for a 66-yard touchdown. After the Moss TD, this defense was noticeably
gun-shy, no longer pressing at the line of scrimmage and allowing a steady diet of quick dink and dunk completions. When you can’t stop the run (something the Niners have clearly proven through the first month of the season) and you can’t stop the pass, opponents can control the clock for 40 minutes, as the Patriots
did Sunday.
Giants - Is Eli Manning an elite level quarterback? This should be a no-brainer; a former No. 1 overall draft pick with a Super Bowl ring on his finger. He certainly looked like one for extended portions of last week’s game; hitting open receivers downfield, gaining more than 200 passing yards in the first half alone. But Manning’s propensity for mistakes hasn’t disappeared entirely – he’s still fumble prone, and still makes bad decisions throwing late over the middle. And Manning’s results are certainly propped up by the strength of the Giants’ underrated running game. This team is simply outstanding at pounding the rock between the tackles. It might have taken a Super Bowl win and a 4-0 start before
this team started getting the respect they deserve, but after this performance, they’ll get just that.
Lions - This team defines the concept of pathetic. Matt Millen might have been one cause of the Lions woes, but sending the GM packing after three horrific games to open the season doesn’t solve their problems in the slightest. Dropping sure interceptions in the end zone; unable to cover even mediocre receivers downfield
– this really is the worst secondary in the NFL. The defensive line is just as bad, completely blown off the line of scrimmage on nearly every running play while generating no pass rush whatsoever.
The linebacking corps is also slow, devoid of any playmakers. On a day where the Lions had extra time to prepare, facing a divisional
rival, this flat showing tells us very clearly that Detroit is an un-backable team right now. The betting marketplace is going to have a tough time properly pricing a team that has lost each of its first four games of the season by two touchdowns or more.
Panthers - Carolina had a dozen plays that gained more than 10 yards in the first half alone against the Chiefs. Are the days of dinks and dunks behind them? The Panthers are moving the chains on the ground, setting up Steve Smith and Mushin Mohammed in the passing game downfield. Jake Delhomme averaged nearly 11 yards per pass attempt. Yes, the defense was spectacular today, but it was the offense that impressed me the most. The Panthers have been horrible home favorites for the vast majority of the John Fox era, but they’ve won SU all three times as home chalk this year with a 2-0-1 ATS mark. All in part to the improved capabilities
of this revitalized offense.
Seahawks - This team simply cannot be trusted to show up for an early start East Coast game, post bye week or not. The track record in these games under Mike Holmgren is truly disastrous, as their performance against the Bills in Week 1 and their showing
against the Giants here would indicate. The defensive question
marks continue to mount. Buffalo hung a season high on the Seahawks; San Fran hung a season-high on them as well, and the Giants didn’t punt in the first half here, scoring on all five possessions…
and their first possession of the second half as well. Even with a healthy receiving corps and a pro bowl caliber quarterback,
Seattle doesn’t look like a playoff team with its defense playing at this level.
ERIN RYNNING - STOCK WATCH
Buy the Northwestern Wildcats – Don’t look now but the Wildcats are off to their best start since 1962 at 5-0. But despite the start, Northwestern is still flying under the radar as they are an underdog at home to Michigan State this weekend.
The Wildcats come in off a bye week, something they didn’t receive over the last two years. In the past, the Big Ten played a full schedule with no bye weeks because of the 12-game schedule and the conference’s reluctance to play into Thanksgiving week. It’s definitely
an advantage considering the physical nature of the Big Ten. As for Northwestern, they are a seasoned team on offense lead by senior quarterback CJ Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton, who is finally healthy. No question there’s an understanding and camaraderie
on this offense, while Sutton brings big play ability. More importantly, Northwestern has undergone a transformation on the defensive side of the football this season after giving up big points in years past. The team has certainly responded to new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz and his 4-3 scheme. The return of strong safety Brandan Smith, who missed most of last year with an injury, has been huge. Now, are they going to continue their defensive output
of allowing 12.4 points per game? No, but confidence is key and the Wildcats truly believe they can stop anyone. Watch defensive end Corey Wootton as well. With a ton of athletic talent and a huge frame he can wreak havoc in their aggressive schemes. The Wildcats can play and own the right schedule to be a real player in a conference
that up until this point looks to be wide open.
Sell the Indianapolis Colts – The Colts might of slipped out of Houston win a victory, but the game continued to wave red flags about the overall ability of this year’s edition. And let’s no let fact get in the way here, the Colts could easily be 0-4. We knew the offense would be a work in progress with Peyton Manning limited in the preseason and a banged-up offensive line but as I see it, their struggles go beyond the offense. Last week against the Texans, the Colts were out gained 391-314, and more importantly 156-79 on the ground. The ground numbers
included a 4.9 yards per carry average for the Texans and 3.6 ypc for the Colts. Consistently stopping the run has always been a real dilemma for the Colts through the years. As we saw as the end of their Super Bowl season, when this team can find a way to stop the run, they are as good as anyone in the league. A big key to that success was having safety Bob Sanders on the field. With Sanders currently out with a sprained ankle, you simply can’t expect Indy to consistently stop the run -- something that rarely occurred even with him in the lineup. The schedule is daunting moving forward with games against Baltimore, Tennessee, Green Bay and New England. Against those four teams, they’ll be at a defensive disadvantage in arguably every game. Defense is the solution for long term winning in the NFL. You don’t need to be great, but it helps to have the ability to stop teams when it matters,
something I don’t believe the Colts are capable of doing on a weekly basis.
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THE SPORTS MEMO -
COLLEGE:
ED CASH
ARKANSAS +19 AT AUBURN
Recommendation: Arkansas
I am not sure what Auburn has done to become a 19-point conference favorite this year. They have been horrible offensively, and after losing to Vanderbilt last week for their second conference loss, it is going to be tough for this coaching staff to get the train back on the tracks. There seems to be some disagreement among head coach Tommy Tuberville and OC Tony Franklin about the direction of the offense and who should be at quarterback. I don’t expect things to get better
overnight or even at all this season. This week they face an Arkansas team that is slowly improving in Bobby Petrino’s first year. They were beaten 38-7 last week at home by Florida, but the game was much closer than the final score. It was 17-7 in the fourth quarter and Arkansas was very much in the game, playing
Florida very tough on both sides of the line of scrimmage. It would not surprise
me at all if they broke out with a big game this week at Auburn. Auburn lost two key defenders in the Vandy game to injuries, and we all know that defense is the Tigers’ only strength. Auburn probably scores a few more than its 18 ppg average on the season, but it won’t be enough to cover this week.
ROB VENO
OKLAHOMA -7 VS. TEXAS
Recommendation: Oklahoma
Texas’ pass defense has been labeled as their most pressing concern by almost every college football analyst, and that concern is going to become a reality
on Saturday. The Longhorns pass rush has been able to somewhat mask the inexperience in the defensive backfield but that asset won’t be nearly as productive against OU. On the season, Texas has recorded 19 sacks but 14 of those were against the overmatched offensive lines of Rice and Arkansas. In Oklahoma, they face an opponent which has allowed just five quarterback sacks in 168 pass attempts thus far this season. With time, QB Sam Bradford (72.6% completions, 18 TDs, 3 INTs) and the Sooners ultra-deep and talented
receiving corps will churn their way to 300+ yards and 35+ points. The three-headed ground attack will figure prominently too and the backs will be productive on screen passes. Obviously Texas has very impressive offensive numbers to date also, but they’ll be facing a veteran group that is playing excellent
defense that yields just 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma’s edge in overall defense springs the double-digit win here as they steamroll their way to 6-0.
DONNIE BLACK
ARIZONA STATE +25.5 AT USC
Recommendation: Arizona State
With three consecutive losses the bloom is off this Sun Devils team. Last week Arizona State played a very sloppy game. They had four fumbles (only one of which resulted in a turnover), two interceptions, seven penalties and three sacks allowed. Yet they had an opportunity for the spread cover when the best field goal kicker in the nation lined-up for a 44-yard field-goal attempt. Thomas Weber’s miss was only his second in 35 tries. This week they get four scores, and in our opinion that is too many. Arizona State has played USC tough, losing only two of its last ten meetings with the Trojans by more than 24 points. Senior quarterback Rudy Carpenter suffered
a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter at California but he was able to play for the final 11 minutes. He remains questionable at press time. The story for ASU however should be its defense as they are allowing just 20.8 ppg and 325 ypg. Both are improvements over last season. So while USC is a potentially explosive opponent, we would expect Arizona State to hang tough and keep this one closer than the huge pointspread margin.
BRENT CROW
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
Recommendation: Mississippi State
Give Vanderbilt credit for their tremendous 5-0 start, including three SEC wins over Auburn, South Carolina and Ole Miss. The Commodores have done a great job on defense and special teams and have made just enough plays on offense to get by. Avoiding turnovers is the most important thing Vandy has accomplished this season, something that in the past was always a major issue
against solid competition. This week the Commodores go to Starkville to face the 1-4 Bulldogs, who are coming off a bye week. Mississippi State will be focused and ready to play this week against the 13th-ranked Commodores.
State gave LSU a pretty good battle two weeks ago before losing 34-24. They got a little confidence on offense with Tyson Lee at QB and they should be able to use their size up front to their advantage against the speedy Vandy defense. This just shapes up to be a dangerous game for Vanderbilt after its biggest win in school history, highest ranking and plenty of never-before-seen National media coverage. Mississippi State’s may be 1-4 but the hunger
is still there and this week they’ll hand Vandy its first loss of the season.
MARTY OTTO
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT BUFFALO -1
Recommendation: Buffalo
Buffalo enters this MAC tilt fresh off a bye week of preparation, rested and ready for a WMU team that tops the table in the Western Division at 3-0. But that isn’t the only situational factor that lines up in our favor as Western
Michigan may look ahead to next week’s opponent, their biggest rival, Central Michigan. This is not strictly a situational play, however. Western Michigan’s offense will get all of the press this week as Tim Hiller lights up the scoreboard but don’t sell the Bulls short. Drew Willy is in the midst of setting all kinds of school records, already approaching the 15 TD passes he had in his breakout campaign last year while featuring a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The bye week also afforded RB James Starks a much needed break to get healthy after suffering through a bit of a hip injury that slowed him early on. Although they have a losing record, this is a Bulls team that has fought through a rebuilding defense quite well, hanging around in games against Pitt and Missouri out of conference and taking CMU to the wire on the road. Now back at home I expect them to finally finish one off.
JARED KLEIN
MINNESOTA +11 AT ILLINOIS
Recommendation: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers are one of the hidden gems in the marketplace this season. They’ve gone 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Last week’s victory over Indiana was head coach Tim Brewster’s first Big Ten win and with the way this team is playing, you can tell they are brimming with confidence as they head into this week’s showdown on the road against Illinois. Minnesota is improved in all areas of the game since last season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Gophers would’ve held Indiana to just one first down and 24 total yards at halftime, if not for Marcus Thigpen’s 77-yard touchdown. They forced three turnovers and sacked Ben Chappell
and Kellen Lewis a combined four times. Illinois has not been stellar on defense
and teams have shown they can move the ball against this unit. Michigan, who ranks dead last in the Big Ten in nearly every offensive category, managed to put up 20 points. Now Illinois will have to contend with Minnesota’s spread offense and the Big Ten’s leading receiver Eric Decker, who has put up 696 yards this season. So while Illinois boasts a potent offense with Juice Williams at the helm, the Gophers can move the ball and keep this game within double-digits.
TIM TRUSHEL
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
Recommendation: Mississippi State
During the Summer, in these same pages we called for Vanderbilt to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Without question we were wrong. They now stand at 5-0 for the first time since 1943 and have beaten Auburn, Mississippi and South Carolina. The ESPN Game Day crew made their first-ever visit to Vanderbilt Stadium, which was a sellout and actually had more Commodore fans than Auburn fans. Smartly we have been able to avoid letting our preseason opinion of Vanderbilt influence our regular season game management and we have steered clear of the Commodores since their week one win over Miami (OH). Yet this week the situation to play against Vanderbilt is just too rich. First Vanderbilt comes of its biggest, most important victory
ever. Second, their victories over their SEC opposition have come in quite favorable
situations and or venues. This game at Mississippi State will not. The Bulldogs are off a bye week and with a 1-4 start to the season, this team is hungry and will not look past Vanderbilt. Statistically neither of these two teams come away impressive,
but with the ability to run the ball behind a massive offensive line, we like State’s opportunity to control the line of scrimmage and win this one outright.
ERIN RYNNING
MINNESOTA AT ILLINOIS -11
Recommendation: Illinois
Under Ron Zook, Illinois has had one focus and one focus only: recruit as much talent and speed as possible. The results have paid off as the Illini field one of, if not the most, athletic team in the Big Ten. Minnesota’s Tim Brewster
has adopted the same game plan but in just his second year, the Gophers’ roster top to bottom just doesn’t compare at the moment. Illinois is off a solid confidence-building road win over Michigan, dominating the ground game 191-69. This result was impressive considering the strength of Michigan’s front defensive line. In addition, Illinois’ defense is still adjusting after losing many key players to graduation. Keep in mind also the quality of offense the Illini had faced heading into last week. The bottom line is their ability to run and throw the ball will be too much for the Gophers to contain. Minnesota boasts a 5-1 record, but they’re not ready to break through just yet. The Illini
will find holes in UM’s secondary with their many weapons and I have my doubts about the Gophers’ offense against formidable competition. We’ll ride the Illini as they give the home crowd in Champaign plenty to cheer about
NFL:
TEDDY COVERS
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO -5
O/U 45
Recommendation: San Diego
When Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady became the savior of the franchise, head coach Bill Belichick earned his reputation by parlaying a dominant defense and powerful running game into a Super Bowl title. That was 2001, this is 2008. The Patriots don’t have a strong running game or a dominant defense for Belichick to rely on at this juncture. New England managed only 3.3 yards per carry against the 49ers’ weak run defense last week after gaining only 78 yards on the ground in their ugly loss to Miami. The Pats defense looks older and slower with each passing week and has had consistent coverage problems in the secondary. And let’s not forget that after facing the Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs and 49ers in their first four games of the campaign, this is a huge step up in class for New England. San Diego is once again hungry and desperate, following its own poorly played loss against the Dolphins. Qualcomm Stadium has been rather friendly for the hosts in recent games. The Chargers
are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight home games, winning six of those games by two touchdowns. With revenge on their minds following their playoff ouster in the AFC Championship Game at New England last January, we’ll back the Chargers
FAIRWAY JAY
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA +2.5
O/U 43
Recommendation: Atlanta
The Dolphins delivered another outright underdog winner for us last week, and we’ll shoot for the Falcons to fly this Sunday. Both the Bears and Falcons have surprised
most observers and betting backers, but their success can be linked to success
at the line of scrimmage. Chicago’s run defense is top-5 in the NFL but have not faced a ground attack in the top 25 percent. They will the next two weeks starting with Atlanta’s No. 1 rated rushing attack (180 ypg). Michael Turner comes in off another 100+ rushing performance in the win over Green Bay. We expect speedy Jerious Norwood to be more involved this week as both a runner and pass catcher to offset the Bears’ strength in their front seven. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan is playing poised, delivering the ball with the quickness and accuracy of a seasoned veteran. The Bears offense is in the top 3 in the NFC in yards-per-point, proving their efficiency and ability to score. But after an easy time of it on the road last week facing
the league’s worst defense in Detroit, expect the Bears to be in for a real battle Sunday. Solid situation for Atlanta returning home off a win as an underdog. They are still being undervalued and we’ll take the points against an equal opponent
JARED KLEIN - NHL PREVIEW:
The NHL is going back to the schedule system used before the lockout. Each team will play the other four teams in their division
six times (three home games and three road games) and play the other 10 teams in their conference four times (two home games and two road games). The remaining 18 games will be played against teams in the other conference. That ensures
that each team will play every other team in the league at least one time during the regular season. Right after the lockout, each team played two additional games against the other four teams in their division (four home games, four road games). They still played four games against the 10 teams in the other two divisions in their conference (two home games and two road games). The remaining 10 games were played against 10 teams from the other conference (five at home against one division, five on the road against another division). Teams did not play the five teams in the third division of the other conference. Confusing? Well with the change in schedule,
we can now take advantage of more Western Conference vs. Eastern Conference matchups as the West has dominated over the last three years. I’m also looking forward to this new schedule because I believe it will put added emphasis that for those crucial four-point games between each team’s division rival.
Don’t buy into the ESPN hype of certain teams! – Tampa Bay Under 90.5 Points via The Greek - The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason because of a slew of moves via free agency. Tampa also replaced
Stanley Cup winning coach John Tortorella with ESPN analyst and former coach Barry Melrose. Melrose has been out of coaching since 1996. The Lightning signed Gary Roberts, Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal Radim Vrbata, and Brian Rolston on offense and acquired Matt Carle and Andre Meszaros on defense.
Tampa also couldn’t resist tampering with their goaltending
as Olaf Kolzig was signed to provide leadership for young goaltenders Mike Smith and Kari Ramo. The season point total is at 90.5 which would be a 19.5-point jump from last season after they finished dead last in the Eastern Conference with 71 points. The Lightning will be improved, but so will several other Eastern Conference teams. Play it Under 90.5.
Keep your core intact – Teams that keep the same traditional core of players get off to better starts rather than teams that make wholesale changes. A couple of teams that had very tough starts to last season were the Buffalo Sabres and the Nashville Predators. Much of that had to do with the wholesale changes that were made to the team’s core of players. For Buffalo,
the team lost co-Captains Chris Drury and Daniel Briere and came out very flat, losing eight out of its first 13 games. The same can be said about the Nashville Predators, who lost winger Paul Kariya, goaltender Tomas Vokoun, Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell and captain Kimmo Timonen in the offseason. Because of the changes, the Predators got off to a 2-6 start. Look for the teams that kept their core together over the offseason
to get off to a better start rather than situations like Tampa Bay who went crazy and spent a lot of money in free agency.
A couple of teams that could get off to a solid start this season are the Boston Bruins and the Calgary Flames. Boston returns seven out of its top nine forwards, the entire defensive core and both goaltenders. The Flames return 10 of their top 12 folders, most of their defense and all star goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff. Both of these teams should have significant value to start the NHL Season.
Injuries/Defections and Player Movements - The Pittsburgh Penguins have already been hit with the injury bug. They lost their top two defensemen before the season even started as Sergei Gonchar will be out for at least four months because of a shoulder injury, and Ryan Whitney until at least January because
of a foot ailment. Those two players combined for over 100 points offensively and Pittsburgh will need young players like Kris Letang and Rob Scuderi to step up. Nashville was hit with a big surprise this offseason as 20-plus goal scorer Alexander
Radulov defected to the KHL in Russia, signing a multiyear
deal. The youngster was a top-six forward and the Predators
will need Patric Hornqvist, who broke Peter Forsberg’s goal scoring record as a rookie in the Swedish Elite League, to step in and fill the void.
It just doesn’t seem fair as the Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings signed the top free agent forward on the market in Marian Hossa. Hossa produced 29 goals and 37 assists in just 72 games last season and should immediately improve an already very potent Detroit attack.
Bold Prediction: The Edmonton Oilers will win the Northwest
Division - I’m very high on the Oilers heading into the season. This was a very young team that suffered a lot of injuries
but somehow managed to go 14-5-1 to end the season and miss the playoffs by only three points. “We probably had our best development year in 12 or 15 years,” president of hockey operations Kevin Lowe was quoted as saying. Tom Gilbert, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov and Kyle Brodziak went from rookies and sophomores to impact
players. Edmonton also added former 30-goal scorer Erik Cole and offensive-minded defensemen Lubomir Visnovsky during the offseason. You also have to take into account that veterans Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray, Ethan Moreau and Fernando Pisani all missed at least 25 games. As far as the rest of the division goes, I believe most of the competition for the Northwest will come from Calgary with Minnesota, Vancouver and Colorado all taking steps back during the offseason. Look for the Oilers to surprise a lot of people and win the Northwest this season.
TEDDY COVERS - NEWS AND NOTES
Bears - This passing game is much better now than it was a month ago. Chicago has some weapons at receiver, with four different players catching passes of 30 yards or longer; and that production
came on a day when Brandon Lloyd wasn’t healthy enough to suit up. Tight end Greg Olson, Devin Hester, Rashied Davis and Marty Booker give this team more than enough weapons to work with on offense. Kyle Orton had no trouble getting the ball downfield
to his receivers, and the running game has been solid for the most part. This team has more potential than I gave them credit for…as long as the mounting injuries on defense don’t start to destroy their chemistry, as it did last year.
Bucs - Brian Griese was sacked three times in the first half, each time he held the ball too long in the pocket. Maybe he avoided the interception problems that have plagued his last two starts, but Griese is not the type of quarterback capable of leading his team to the promised land. And with no big play threats in the passing game, it was unclear to me why Griese had to hold the ball as long as he did – almost all of his passes were dinks and dunks. 13 of his first 16 pass attempts travelled less than five yards from the line of scrimmage. The passing game worked much better
once Jeff Garcia replaced Griese coming off the bench. Tampa had three defensive touchdowns in their first four games. Monte Kiffin has made it a priority to get quick points with big plays on the defensive side of the football. That means less Cover-2, which the Bucs are running only about 30% of the time this year. It also means more big plays against this defense, as they take more gambles in an effort to create the big momentum-changing
defensive plays.
Falcons - This defensive line is getting pressure; the secondary is covering downfield – I’m very impressed with this defensive effort. I also like this punter, Michael Koenin, dropping punts inside
the 20-yard line and helping the Falcons win the field position
war. And Atlanta’s offensive line is giving Matt Ryan all day to throw the football, another unit that is most assuredly playing at a high level these days. There was no home/road dichotomy here, their first strong performance on the road in 2008. These Falcons are arguably the NFC’s most improved team compared to last year’s 4-12 debacle.
49ers - This secondary clearly has some issues against big play passing attacks. Last week, we saw the Saints throw deep repeatedly
and with great success against this defense. It was a similar
story here, with Randy Moss burning the Niners deep for a 66-yard touchdown. After the Moss TD, this defense was noticeably
gun-shy, no longer pressing at the line of scrimmage and allowing a steady diet of quick dink and dunk completions. When you can’t stop the run (something the Niners have clearly proven through the first month of the season) and you can’t stop the pass, opponents can control the clock for 40 minutes, as the Patriots
did Sunday.
Giants - Is Eli Manning an elite level quarterback? This should be a no-brainer; a former No. 1 overall draft pick with a Super Bowl ring on his finger. He certainly looked like one for extended portions of last week’s game; hitting open receivers downfield, gaining more than 200 passing yards in the first half alone. But Manning’s propensity for mistakes hasn’t disappeared entirely – he’s still fumble prone, and still makes bad decisions throwing late over the middle. And Manning’s results are certainly propped up by the strength of the Giants’ underrated running game. This team is simply outstanding at pounding the rock between the tackles. It might have taken a Super Bowl win and a 4-0 start before
this team started getting the respect they deserve, but after this performance, they’ll get just that.
Lions - This team defines the concept of pathetic. Matt Millen might have been one cause of the Lions woes, but sending the GM packing after three horrific games to open the season doesn’t solve their problems in the slightest. Dropping sure interceptions in the end zone; unable to cover even mediocre receivers downfield
– this really is the worst secondary in the NFL. The defensive line is just as bad, completely blown off the line of scrimmage on nearly every running play while generating no pass rush whatsoever.
The linebacking corps is also slow, devoid of any playmakers. On a day where the Lions had extra time to prepare, facing a divisional
rival, this flat showing tells us very clearly that Detroit is an un-backable team right now. The betting marketplace is going to have a tough time properly pricing a team that has lost each of its first four games of the season by two touchdowns or more.
Panthers - Carolina had a dozen plays that gained more than 10 yards in the first half alone against the Chiefs. Are the days of dinks and dunks behind them? The Panthers are moving the chains on the ground, setting up Steve Smith and Mushin Mohammed in the passing game downfield. Jake Delhomme averaged nearly 11 yards per pass attempt. Yes, the defense was spectacular today, but it was the offense that impressed me the most. The Panthers have been horrible home favorites for the vast majority of the John Fox era, but they’ve won SU all three times as home chalk this year with a 2-0-1 ATS mark. All in part to the improved capabilities
of this revitalized offense.
Seahawks - This team simply cannot be trusted to show up for an early start East Coast game, post bye week or not. The track record in these games under Mike Holmgren is truly disastrous, as their performance against the Bills in Week 1 and their showing
against the Giants here would indicate. The defensive question
marks continue to mount. Buffalo hung a season high on the Seahawks; San Fran hung a season-high on them as well, and the Giants didn’t punt in the first half here, scoring on all five possessions…
and their first possession of the second half as well. Even with a healthy receiving corps and a pro bowl caliber quarterback,
Seattle doesn’t look like a playoff team with its defense playing at this level.
ERIN RYNNING - STOCK WATCH
Buy the Northwestern Wildcats – Don’t look now but the Wildcats are off to their best start since 1962 at 5-0. But despite the start, Northwestern is still flying under the radar as they are an underdog at home to Michigan State this weekend.
The Wildcats come in off a bye week, something they didn’t receive over the last two years. In the past, the Big Ten played a full schedule with no bye weeks because of the 12-game schedule and the conference’s reluctance to play into Thanksgiving week. It’s definitely
an advantage considering the physical nature of the Big Ten. As for Northwestern, they are a seasoned team on offense lead by senior quarterback CJ Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton, who is finally healthy. No question there’s an understanding and camaraderie
on this offense, while Sutton brings big play ability. More importantly, Northwestern has undergone a transformation on the defensive side of the football this season after giving up big points in years past. The team has certainly responded to new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz and his 4-3 scheme. The return of strong safety Brandan Smith, who missed most of last year with an injury, has been huge. Now, are they going to continue their defensive output
of allowing 12.4 points per game? No, but confidence is key and the Wildcats truly believe they can stop anyone. Watch defensive end Corey Wootton as well. With a ton of athletic talent and a huge frame he can wreak havoc in their aggressive schemes. The Wildcats can play and own the right schedule to be a real player in a conference
that up until this point looks to be wide open.
Sell the Indianapolis Colts – The Colts might of slipped out of Houston win a victory, but the game continued to wave red flags about the overall ability of this year’s edition. And let’s no let fact get in the way here, the Colts could easily be 0-4. We knew the offense would be a work in progress with Peyton Manning limited in the preseason and a banged-up offensive line but as I see it, their struggles go beyond the offense. Last week against the Texans, the Colts were out gained 391-314, and more importantly 156-79 on the ground. The ground numbers
included a 4.9 yards per carry average for the Texans and 3.6 ypc for the Colts. Consistently stopping the run has always been a real dilemma for the Colts through the years. As we saw as the end of their Super Bowl season, when this team can find a way to stop the run, they are as good as anyone in the league. A big key to that success was having safety Bob Sanders on the field. With Sanders currently out with a sprained ankle, you simply can’t expect Indy to consistently stop the run -- something that rarely occurred even with him in the lineup. The schedule is daunting moving forward with games against Baltimore, Tennessee, Green Bay and New England. Against those four teams, they’ll be at a defensive disadvantage in arguably every game. Defense is the solution for long term winning in the NFL. You don’t need to be great, but it helps to have the ability to stop teams when it matters,
something I don’t believe the Colts are capable of doing on a weekly basis.
