1 Wednesday w/analysis

[sherwood]

Range	W	L	P	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	2	1	0.00	+2.82
Last 30 Days	32	38	0.00	+0.29
Season to Date	108	136	0.00	+0.63

Philadelphia +192 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Despite losing three in a row, the Flyers continue to play well. All three losses were by one goal and the last time they lost by more than one goal was 11 games ago on December 30 in San Jose. The Flyers have picked up points in 11 of their past 16 games and although they’re eight points out of a Wild Card spot, they have at least two games in hand on the teams above them and four games in hand on four of them. During the past month, few teams have created more opportunities to score than Philadelphia but the puck has not been going in. Still, in the 18 games from the day after Thanksgiving through to the January 9 win over NYI, the Flyers reached the four-goal mark eight times and didn’t go more than three consecutive games without a four-goal night. We’re merely pointing out how dangerous this team can be and how worthy they are taking back a price in this range. We also like that Michal Neuvirth gets this start for Philly, as he has never faced Washington. Neuvirth was drafted by the Caps in the second round in 2006 and appeared in 134 games for them over six seasons. We know for sure he’ll be jacked up and so will his teammates.

Washington has won 12 consecutive games at Verizon Center, marking the longest home winning streak in the NHL this season and the Capitals longest home winning streak since they won a franchise-record 13 consecutive games during the 2009-10 season. We are not going to suggest for a second that the Caps are weak. They are a beast of a team that is 24 games over .500. However, situational betting is a key criterion we employ and we just might catch the Capitals in an extremely vulnerable spot here. The Caps were scheduled to play on Sunday in Pittsburgh on NBC on Championship Sunday in the NFL. It was a Crosby/Ovi showdown that the media was building up. It was supposed to be a 1:00 PM start ahead of the two NFL games but Mother Nature said no. Now the Caps have been off for eight days, which is an incredibly long time. What makes that layoff even more difficult is that the All-Star break begins tomorrow. Not only is it difficult to play once in eight days but the Capitals may have already checked out for the break with such a comfortable lead in the Metro. We saw a similar example of a first place team checking out before the break last night, when the Blackhawks showed up in body only in Carolina and got whacked, 5-0. If indeed Washington has checked out, this ticket will cash. If the Caps haven’t checked out and play their usual strong game, this ticket can still cash. The risk is worth the reward.

2 unit play

 

[Lippman]

While I think the Caps will need a period to get their legs, they will have 40 more minutes to knock around the Flyers around. Very tough going against a team that is 18-4 at home and of course Holtby is just a beast. But I am quite surprised you didn't bring up that Holtby has had a very tough time against Philly as of late. like 3-4-3 and 3.26 bad as of late.

I will be on the Caps -.5, but BOL to ya !!

 

[sherwood]

Holtby has been a beast all year but I'm not as convinced as many that he's THIS good. Of course Washington can win but I like the situation for the Flyers (and the price) so I'll roll the dice.

 

[Bushay]

While I think the Caps will need a period to get their legs, they will have 40 more minutes to knock around the Flyers around. Very tough going against a team that is 18-4 at home and of course Holtby is just a beast. But I am quite surprised you didn't bring up that Holtby has had a very tough time against Philly as of late. like 3-4-3 and 3.26 bad as of late.

I will be on the Caps -.5, but BOL to ya !!

.....

 

[Bushay]

While I think the Caps will need a period to get their legs, they will have 40 more minutes to knock around the Flyers around. Very tough going against a team that is 18-4 at home and of course Holtby is just a beast. But I am quite surprised you didn't bring up that Holtby has had a very tough time against Philly as of late. like 3-4-3 and 3.26 bad as of late.

I will be on the Caps -.5, but BOL to ya !!

Although the Flyers have not been a good first-period team all year, in recent games it’s been the second period that has been anobstacle. Simmonds’s second-period goal on Monday vs. Boston snapped a five-game second-period scoreless streak for the club.They have been outscored 8-1 in the second period over their last six. By comparison, the Flyers have outscored their opponent 5-4 inthe first period of those six games and 7-2 in the third period. The Flyers have at least one third-period goal in seven consecutivegames and in 10 of their last 11.In general, the Flyers have seen their scoring drop off in recent games. They have averaged 2.17 goals per game over their last sixcontests and have not managed to reach four goals in a single game in any of them. Prior to that, in the 18 games from the day afterThanksgiving (11/27) through the Jan. 9 win over NYI, the Flyers averaged 2.89 goals per game and reached the four-goal mark eighttimes, including the last three in a row, and didn’t go more than three consecutive games without a four-goal night.The Flyers have at least a point in 16 of the 24 games since Thanksgiving (13-8-3). They have averaged 32.125 shots on goal in the 16games with a point, compared to 28 SOG in the eight regulation losses, and have averaged 60.875 shot attempts in those 16 gamescompared to 54.875 in the eight losses.

 

[Bushay]

Reasons to like the Caps

TOP FIVE CAPS FACTSHome Sweet Home – Washington has won 12 consecutive games at Verizon Center (11/21-1/17), marking the longest home winningstreak in the NHL this season and the Capitals longest home winning streak since they won a franchise-record 13 consecutive gamesduring the 2009-10 season (1/5/10-3/6/10: 13-0-0). Washington has outscored its opponents 50-21 in its last 12 home games and is 14for 38 (36.8%) on the power play during that span. The Capitals are 18-3-1 at home this season and have earned a point in 16 of theirlast 17 games at home (10/30-1/17: 15-1-1). Washington leads the NHL in home point percentage (.841), goals per game (3.45) andpower-play percentage (30.9), ranks second in goals against per game (2.00) and eighth in penalty kill percentage (86.7%) at home thisseason. Goaltender Braden Holtby ranks second in the NHL in wins (16) and goals against average (1.87) and third in save percentage(.932) on home ice. Evegeny Kuznetsov leads the team with 24 points (6g, 18a) in 22 home games this season and Alex Ovechkinranks tied for third in the NHL in goals (17) at home.

Kuz Control – Evgeny Kuznetsov registered a career-high four assists on Jan. 19 at Columbus, marking his second consecutive threeassistgame (1/17 vs. NYR: 3a). According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kuznetsov is the fifth different player in franchise history torecord three or more assists in back-to-back games and the first since Nicklas Backstrom in 2007-08 (1/19/08-1/21/08: 8a). Kuznetsovhas earned three or more points in three of his last four games (1/14-1/19: 2g, 8a) and ranks tied for first in the NHL in three-pointgames this season (7). In addition, Kuznetsov registered 46 points (14g, 32a) in 97 career games prior to this season and has earned48 points (15g, 33a) in 46 games this season. He leads the NHL in primary assists (28) and assists per 60 minutes (2.44), rankssecond in plus/minus (+25) and points per 60 minutes (3.55), fourth in assists (33), tied for fourth in multi-point games (14) and tied forfifth in points (48).

Winning Ways – The Capitals defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets 6-3 on Jan. 19 to improve to 35-8-3 (73 points) this season,ranking first in the NHL in points and wins. Washington’s 35-8-3 record marks the team’s best start (in terms of points and wins) infranchise history. In addition, the Capitals are tied for the best start in NHL history through a team’s first 46 games of a season (in termsof wins). Washington has earned a point in 25 of its last 28 games (11/21-1/19: 23-3-2) and has outscored its opponents 100-58 duringthat span.

Holt-beast Mode – Braden Holtby stopped 32 shots on Jan. 19 at Columbus to earn his League-leading 30th win of the season.According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Holtby is the first goaltender to win 30 of his first 38 games in one season since 1995-96, whenChris Osgood did so with the Red Wings (30-5-3). Holtby has posted a 22-1-2 record in his last 26 games with two shutouts, a 2.02goals-against average and a .934 save percentage. The Lloydminister, Saskatchewan, native posted a 22-game point streak from Nov.12 to Jan. 14 (20-0-2), marking the second-longest point streak by a goaltender in franchise history and only the second point streak of22 or more games in the NHL in the last 20 seasons. Capitals goaltender Jose Theodore posted a franchise-record 23-game pointstreak during the 2009-20 season (20-0-3). Holtby leads the NHL in wins, ranks third in goals-against average (2.01) and tied sixth insave percentage (.930).

Charged Up – The Capitals scored two power-play goals on Jan. 19 against Columbus, marking their League-leading 12th time thisseason Washington has scored two or more power-play goals in a game. In addition, Washington is 22-0-2 this season in games whenit scores a power-play goal. The Capitals are 38 for 140 (27.1%) on the power play this season, ranking first in the NHL.

ADDITIONAL CAPITALS NOTESTaking Offense – The Capitals scored six goals on Jan. 19 at Columbus, marking the 12th time this season Washington has scoredfive or more goals in a game. Washington ranks first in the NHL in games with five or more goals scored and is 12-0-0 this seasonwhen scoring five or more goals. Washington leads the NHL in goals per game (3.33), goals-against per game (2.15) and goaldifferential (+55).

Taking the Metro – The Capitals have posted an 11-3-1 record against division foes this season and have outscored opponents 57-36in those games. In addition, Washington is 27-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, ranking first in the NHL in wins against theconference.

Saint Nick – Nicklas Backstrom scored two goals on Jan. 19 at Columbus, marking his second multi-goal game of the season and the21st of his career. Backstrom has earned 12 points in his last 10 games (12/31-1/19: 5g, 7a) and ranks tied for first in the NHL inpower-play assists (16), third in assists per 60 minutes (2.10), tied for third in power-play points (18), fifth in points per 60 minutes(3.18), tied for seventh in plus/minus (+17) and tied for eighth in assists (29). Since 2007-08, Backstrom ranks third in the League inassists (456), trailing Henrik Sedin (502) and Joe Thornton (477).

All-Time Gr8 – Alex Ovechkin registered two points (1g, 1a) on Jan. 19 at Columbus, marking his seventh goal in his last seven games(1/7-1/19: 7g, 1a). Ovechkin ranks tied for second in the NHL in goals (28) and goals per 60 minutes (1.82), fourth in power-play goals(11) and tied for fifth in plus/minus (+19) this season. Since entering the NHL in 2005-06, Ovechkin has posted 151 more goals, 47more points and 36 more multi-goal games than any other player. In addition, Ovechkin leads the NHL in goals since 2001-02 despitebeginning his NHL career in 2005. His average of 0.625 goals per game is fourth in NHL history (minimum: 300 games played), trailingonly Bossy (0.762), Cy Denneny (0.755) and Lemieux (0.754). The 6’3”, 239-pound left wing ranks first in franchise history in goals(503), points (937), power-play goals (187), game-winning goals (85), overtime goals (16), shots (4,058) and multi-goal games (104).

O From D – Capitals defensemen have earned a point in 40 of Washington’s 46 games this season and have combined to record 100points (18g, 82a). The Capitals rank sixth in the NHL in points by defensemen this season, trailing Nashville (11), Dallas (104), SanJose (102), Calgary (102) and Chicago (101).

Flyin’ High – Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin has recorded 46 points (29g, 17a) in 38 career games against Philadelphia. NicklasBackstrom has earned 43 points (13g, 30a) in 31 career games against the Flyers, marking the fourth-most he has earned against anyNHL team (Carolina: 50, Tampa Bay: 45, Florida: 44).

Caps Connections – Justin Williams was selected by the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round, 28th overall, in the 2000 NHL Draft.Williams appeared in 226 games with the Flyers from 2000-04, registering 115 points (43g, 72a) and 108 penalty minutes.

Good Mojo – Marcus Johansson earned two points (1g, 1a) on Jan. 19 at Columbus, marking his seventh multi-point game of theseason. Johansson has earned 10 points in his last nine games (12/30-1/19: 6g, 4a) and ranks fifth on the team in points (30) and tiedfor third in the NHL in game-winning goals (6).

 

[Lippman]

Great info Bushay

 

[Lippman]

Great call, but crappy way for the Caps to lose the game.

 

[Bushay]

Another 2-1 big dog winner!

 

[MoneyMayhem]

Great call Sherwood! Great win! Thank You! Seer called out Bushay last night who I respect because he has a lifetime knowledge of hockey! Seer you lost tonight. Go to sleep. Sherwood is better.

 

[MoneyMayhem]

Boom!

 

[sherwood]

I was reading Kevy's thread and near the end, here is what I read...posted by seer:

i have la kings but there was a change in my thinking in the last hour.
too many kings looking forward to as break in with u
3 way line col +300 for 2*
and +180 for 4*

This is the same guy that went fucking ape shit on me for changing my opinion about a team this week.

 

[Bushay]

I doubt anyone takes him seriously in here.

 

[captn_jay]

I was reading Kevy's thread and near the end, here is what I read...posted by seer:

i have la kings but there was a change in my thinking in the last hour.
too many kings looking forward to as break in with u
3 way line col +300 for 2*
and +180 for 4*

This is the same guy that went fucking ape shit on me for changing my opinion about a team this week.

LOL...

Good hit with the Philadelphia play tonight. Continued Success Sherwood. Always enjoy reading your thread and appreciate the time you put in the writeups.

 

[Bushay]

He's a fun read though

 

[sherwood]

Great call Sherwood! Great win! Thank You! Seer called out Bushay last night who I respect because he has a lifetime knowledge of hockey! Seer you lost tonight. Go to sleep. Sherwood is better.

For me MM, this isn't about who is better. I don't think I'm better than anyone. It's not a competition (I know you didn't mean it that way MM) at all. It's about sharing knowledge and trying to beat the book. Nothing more, nothing less.

I get great info from guys like VV, Bushay, Guil, Feddz and Puckhandler to name a few. We all look at games differently and all add something to this forum because we love the game and we share what we observe. What could be simpler than that?

Even seer has knowledge, especially about the teams he follows closely but nobody benefits from bashing or getting into a juvenile combat of words. I'll leave it at that. Enjoy the All-Star break and let's have a great second half and playoffs.

 

[sherwood]

LOL...

Good hit with the Philadelphia play tonight. Continued Success Sherwood. Always enjoy reading your thread and appreciate the time you put in the writeups.

Thank you CJ

 

[MoneyMayhem]

Sherwood your the man.

 

[seer]

the diff is i expect no one to read my stuff i hope to win and post for those that follow. u write for thousands which comes to full circle what my actual and only beef with u is---- when u say team A stinks and they follow u blindly and know nothing about hockey just to follow u.. then u planted a seed in them not to play that team.
as an analogy...u host a site. let's say u sell hotdogs on it... so u advertise it. hotdogs all week for 50cents ....guy comes to ur site and orders it.. u say no i changed my mind. ...for me to change my mind and bet has zero bearing on ne one but myself.
you on the other hand could be misleading many...sorry if u dont understand this but i am repeating myself now.
i dont know u - so i have zero personal against u. only some of the misleading things u say about a team.
your college w/us are good. they are based on facts not opinions.
all i suggest is write in the same manner as u do for hockey. that is all.

 

[sherwood]

.u host a site. let's say u sell hotdogs on it so u advertise it. hotdogs all week for 50cents ....guy comes to ur site and orders it.. u say no i changed my mind

Bad analogy.....Dude SELLS hot-dogs.....I don't sell anything. I give an opinion, that's all and it's genuine

And let's say a guy did follow me blindly over the past 15 years in the NHL. That person would be up money and a lot of it. Nobody is going to give you free hot-dogs for 15 years but I did.