FORDHAM -7 -110 over St. Johns
We've covered the Red Storm in this space a couple of times already this year and our attack on this group is not done yet. The Johnnies are now 4-2 this year after winning their last game against Chaminade 100-93. They were an 11½-point choice over Chaminade, which was rather surprising to learn. It wasn't surprising that they were favored by double -digits; it was surprising to learn that there was even a line in that game, as Chaminade is a Division I team. The Johnnies didn't cover and allowed 93 points against. That game was played on a neutral floor and St. Johns allowed Chaminade to hit over 50% from the floor. Last week at the Maui Invitational, the Johnnies were extremely overvalued as a 14½-point pooch to Vanderbilt and lost 92-55. The very next night, there was a market overreaction, as the Johnnies were a 20-point underdog against Indiana and lost by just 10. That 10-point loss to the Hoosiers has the Johnnies overvalued again here. St. Johns is coming off three games in three days in Maui. Three days on that beautiful island for a bunch of young college athletes probably involved more than just basketball.They have been off for a full week now and while this game is just a hop, skip and jump away from their own campus, it's still a road game. St. Johns is simply ill-prepped to compete against any A-10 member. They are a team in deep trouble with no real identity or structure and it's going to take more than just a few games or a year to get them back on track. Again, Chris Mullen inherited a group whose top returning scorer averaged 1½ points per game last year.Seven players from last year’s squad transferred out of St. Johns.The Johnnies have been outplayed for long stretches already this year by Wagner and Rutgers and the Silverswords of Chaminade.
The first inclination by most upon seeing this line will be to grab the points as quickly as possible. Fordham being favored by this much over a recognized program looks like free money. Fordham has been aDivision II train wreck for years. This is a Rams squad that hasn't appeared in a post-season game since 1992. Last year the Rams went 10-21 overall and 2-14 in conference play. The Fordham Rams are to Division II college hoops what the Cleveland Browns are to the NFL.The Rams were not favored by this much even one time last season. On most nights they were a double-digit dog. Their were favored twice the entire season, once against Saint Louis by 1 point and once against Duquesne by 2½-points. They lost the latter by 16. Teams like Fordham are not favored in this range and now most bettors are thinking they are getting a gift. We're here to suggest otherwise.The Rams have some very decent talent this season, including Jon Severe.The sophomore guard was a major pickup for the Rams when he committed to play for Fordham before last season. Severe, a local kid from Queens, was a 2013 Parade All-American and the Mr. Basketball for the state of New York as a senior and he continued to thrive as a freshman last season. The Rams are strong in the back court and the overall talent level has improved greatly from last season. More importantly, the oddsmakers did not err in this line. When they are offering this many points against the Rams, they had better be right. We know how bad the Johnnies truly are so we'll continue our attack on them in the right situations and this is one of them. Pick: Fordham -7 (Risking 2.2 units ti win 2).
We've covered the Red Storm in this space a couple of times already this year and our attack on this group is not done yet. The Johnnies are now 4-2 this year after winning their last game against Chaminade 100-93. They were an 11½-point choice over Chaminade, which was rather surprising to learn. It wasn't surprising that they were favored by double -digits; it was surprising to learn that there was even a line in that game, as Chaminade is a Division I team. The Johnnies didn't cover and allowed 93 points against. That game was played on a neutral floor and St. Johns allowed Chaminade to hit over 50% from the floor. Last week at the Maui Invitational, the Johnnies were extremely overvalued as a 14½-point pooch to Vanderbilt and lost 92-55. The very next night, there was a market overreaction, as the Johnnies were a 20-point underdog against Indiana and lost by just 10. That 10-point loss to the Hoosiers has the Johnnies overvalued again here. St. Johns is coming off three games in three days in Maui. Three days on that beautiful island for a bunch of young college athletes probably involved more than just basketball.They have been off for a full week now and while this game is just a hop, skip and jump away from their own campus, it's still a road game. St. Johns is simply ill-prepped to compete against any A-10 member. They are a team in deep trouble with no real identity or structure and it's going to take more than just a few games or a year to get them back on track. Again, Chris Mullen inherited a group whose top returning scorer averaged 1½ points per game last year.Seven players from last year’s squad transferred out of St. Johns.The Johnnies have been outplayed for long stretches already this year by Wagner and Rutgers and the Silverswords of Chaminade.
The first inclination by most upon seeing this line will be to grab the points as quickly as possible. Fordham being favored by this much over a recognized program looks like free money. Fordham has been aDivision II train wreck for years. This is a Rams squad that hasn't appeared in a post-season game since 1992. Last year the Rams went 10-21 overall and 2-14 in conference play. The Fordham Rams are to Division II college hoops what the Cleveland Browns are to the NFL.The Rams were not favored by this much even one time last season. On most nights they were a double-digit dog. Their were favored twice the entire season, once against Saint Louis by 1 point and once against Duquesne by 2½-points. They lost the latter by 16. Teams like Fordham are not favored in this range and now most bettors are thinking they are getting a gift. We're here to suggest otherwise.The Rams have some very decent talent this season, including Jon Severe.The sophomore guard was a major pickup for the Rams when he committed to play for Fordham before last season. Severe, a local kid from Queens, was a 2013 Parade All-American and the Mr. Basketball for the state of New York as a senior and he continued to thrive as a freshman last season. The Rams are strong in the back court and the overall talent level has improved greatly from last season. More importantly, the oddsmakers did not err in this line. When they are offering this many points against the Rams, they had better be right. We know how bad the Johnnies truly are so we'll continue our attack on them in the right situations and this is one of them. Pick: Fordham -7 (Risking 2.2 units ti win 2).
