First play this year.
Last year's record: 61-44 (+32 units) based on 2 units per play.
Play is for 2.12 units to win 2
#522 UCF +4½ -106 over Cal Irvine
Early in the season we can usually find some good value on teams coming off poor seasons. It is also not that easy for the oddsmakers to come up with the great equalizer (the point-spread) in these non-power out-of-conference matchups and we trust we found a bargain here in the Central Florida Knights. Cal Irvine went to the Big Dance last year after they knocked off Hawaii in the Big West final. The Anteaters would draw Louisville in the second round (really the first round) and give the Cardinals a huge scare in a 57-55 loss. Overall, Cal Irvine went 21-13 with a conference record of 11-5. On paper and based on last season, the Anteaters have much more market appeal than UCF. Cal Irvine is off to a quick 2-0 start this year too. However, they played two cupcakes so far and both were at home. They also lost some key players from last year’s team in Will Davis II who led the Anteaters in rebounding the last three seasons and also led the team in scoring during his senior season. The loss of 6-10 center John Ryan leaves a hole in the frontcourt while Travis Souza was a sharpshooter that connected on an impressive 46.2 percent of his 145 three-point attempts.
We cannot talk about the Anteaters without mentioning 7-6 center Mamadou Ndiaye. Nidaye is an NBA prospect but he’s had injury woes his entire career and he’s very unlikely to play more than 20-25 minutes per game. In a less important non-conference game on the road, Nidaye will absolutely not be overworked. The Anteaters rely on defense more than offense, which likely means plenty of close games that come right down to the wire. The Big West is inferior to the AAC and so we are certainly not convinced that the Anteaters deserve this billing. Incidentally, Cal Irvine’s two wins this year came against Loyola Marymount and UC San Diego. They were a 13½-point choice against LMU and there was no betting line in their game against UC San Diego. They now hit the road for the first time.
UCF went 12-18 last season with a conference mark of 5-13. They are 0-1 this year so its stock is low compared to the Anteaters stock. That said, the American Athletic Conference now in its third year features a slew of decent teams that includes UConn, Memphis, Cincinnati and SMU. The Knights didn’t win a lot of conference games last year but they were competitive in a bunch of them (note the 67-60 loss at UConn) and they figure to be better this year. The Knights will return their two leading scorers from last season in B.J. Taylor and Adonys Henriquez. Taylor is out with an injured foot but that only inflates this number more in our favor. The return of several experienced players like Staphon Blair will make a major impact on the Knights ability to compete against tough defenses. UCF also features 6-10, 325-pound big man Justin McBride and 7-6 center Tacko Fall to combat what Nidaye brings. This is an undervalued Knights’ team that is on the rise and that has a great chance to move up a few notches in the standings. This one has upset potential for sure and while it’s tempting to play the Knights on the money line, those 4½-points offered could come into play so that’s the way we’ll play it.
