1 Tuesday w/analysis

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2 unit play.

PHILADELPHIA -104 over N.Y. Rangers

This series got off to a great start for the Rangers when they won the first game in convincing fashion. In that first game, New York had a huge edge in puck possession, they outshot the Flyers by a commanding count of 36-15 and won easily, 4-1. It looked like more of the same in Game 2 when the Rangers jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead but then something clicked for the Flyers and they woke up. Philly played an outstanding road game the rest of the way in Game 2 and ended up with a well-deserved, 4-2 victory. Since the second period of Game 2, it’s Philadelphia, not the Rangers that appear to be getting stronger. The Flyers 4-1 loss in Game 3 is misleading, as the Rangers were badly out-chanced but managed to score four goals on just 16 shots against a shaky Ray Emery. Philadelphia was clearly the better team in Game 3. The Rangers won Game 5 at home by a score of 4-2 but Philadelphia was not outplayed in that game either.

One could argue that the Flyers have been the better team since the start of the second period in Game 2. That’s not to say that New York has been weak because that hasn’t been the case at all. The Rangers have had great stretches of sustained pressure in almost every game. However, we’re all about value and the value here lies in the Flyers at home in a pick’em game. No team is running away with this series. Every game with the exception of Game 1 at MSG has been close throughout. The Rangers have been -153 or higher in all three home games of this series and they could have easily lost two of them. In a series this close, how can the Rangers be -153 or more at home while the Flyers are just -105? The Flyers have been every bit as good as the Rangers but they’re not being priced as such and that is what we refer to as true value.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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GL tonight Sherwood, and thanks for posting

ditto...however not that I miss one day without your plays one way or the other. If Mohammad wont come to the mountain.......

one question Sherwood. I'm a avid reader of your baseball insight and wonder if you could enlighten me with the site you use that offers the groundball/line-drive/fly-ball percentages you often include in your writeups.

continued success sir.
 

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Nice Bud...........

4-0 starting the third period

Guessing some physical play this period.
 

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fangraphs Vegas. It's the gold mine for baseball advanced stats
 

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