| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.18 |
| Last 30 Days | 19 | 9 | 0.00 | +19.46 |
| Season to Date | 32 | 22 | 0.00 | +20.78 |
#735 Milwaukee +4½ -110 over ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (1.1 units to win 1)
#735 Milwaukee +173 over ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (1 unit)
8:00 PM EST. Once again we have a situation setting up here where the records do not tell the truth of the two combatants in this Horizon League clash. The Flames of Illinois-Chicago come in with a much more ravishing record of 10-8 compared to that of the Panthers of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who sit at 5-13. In conference play, the Panthers stand at 1-4 compared to the Flames, who are 3-2. On paper, this seems to be another one-sided affair but if the Oakland Golden Grizzlies can serve proof of one irrefutable fact, it is that the numbers are often ever more erroneous in lower card fixtures such as this one, where a team with a losing record can easily defeat a team with a winning record (see Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy yesterday).
Often these upsets materialize as a result of one side playing a padded schedule that affords them a few more easier wins than their foe, who may have succumbed to the rigors of playing a more difficult docket on a few more occasions. When you factor in Milwaukee’s 97th ranked non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) to that of Illinois-Chicago’s 308th ranked non-conference SOS, the makings for an upset are once again in place.
Situational betting has always been our bread and butter. The Flames have done what would be expected of any team with a winning record for the most part. They win games against teams with losing records. The Flames however, were casted as a pooch against Cleveland State, a team that is very similar to Wisconsin-Milwaukee in that they, too, schedule up out of conference games and have been on the losing end against some excellent basketball teams. It can be inferred that perhaps Illinois-Chicago has been punching above its weight and is in line for some attrition of sorts. When you look at their body of work overall and see wins against Roosevelt and Chicago State with nasty defeats at Eastern Illinois and Grand Canyon, the Flames record seems to be a bit of a charade, as they do not have the consistency or résumé of a winning team.
While the Panthers stand at 5-13 on the year overall they are 9-7 ATS for a reason. This is a team that has been undervalued far more than they should and has not been given due credit for some of the results they have fostered. This is an outfit that hung tough with teams such as Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Ohio and Memphis on the road while also giving Belmont a good fight when they came to town as well. All five of these teams were at one point in contention or qualified for the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The only team that the Flames have encountered remotely close in caliber to any of these aforementioned teams is the paper tiger Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Additionally, this is a Panthers team that has pulled off a victory as a double-digit dog against UC Irvine, soundly defeated Northern Kentucky as a four-point pooch and beat Montana State as an 8½-point underdog. When being spotted six points or more, the Panthers are 6-2 ATS, which shows the tremendous value on them. Milwaukee-Wisconsin has won six of its previous seven against the Flames, thus, they’ll come into this one with a psychological advantage with the mindset of expecting to win. Look for quality of competition to be the difference maker in this affair and thus, we’re going to play the underdog to win outright for 1 unit and we’ll take the points for another unit to make up our traditional 2-unit bet.
