1 Tuesday w/analysis

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RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday020.00-4.00
Last 30 Days27320.00+0.54
Season to Date34530.00-24.18

Philadelphia +118 over FLORIDA

OT included. The Panthers return home from a successful four-game trip here that saw them win in Montreal, Ottawa and New York (Rangers). The Panthers lone loss on said trip was in Toronto. The Panthers are now a game over .500 at 10-9 but we’re not buying any of it. The Panthers continue to get outplayed by a wide margin almost every time they take the ice. Against Montreal, they were outshot 37-24 and won in extra time. When they defeated Ottawa 4-1, they were outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 38-18. Against the Rangers this past Sunday, Florida had six scoring chances and won 3-2 in extra time. We’re now going to pay more attention to the Panthers when they don’t get lucky, like when they were smoked in Toronto 6-1 between those three victories. The Panthers are getting most of their production from players that nobody has heard of like Jonathan Marchessault, Colton Sceviour and Denis Malgin to name a few. Jason Demers is the sixth leading scorer on this group! The Panthers rank 27th in scoring chances. They’re an average team whose chances of losing are greater than their chances of winning and when they’re favored against a superior team like they are here, we are going to step in almost every time.

By contrast, Philadelphia is coming off a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay in which they allowed just 18 shots on net while firing away 32 of their own. The Flyers have badly outshot, out-chanced and outplayed four of their past five opponents, which includes firing away 36 shots on a stingy Wild team. Philly has also taken two minor penalties or less in four straight so a dedication to discipline or staying out of the box appears to be a point of emphasis. Meanwhile, the Flyers have drawn five penalties or more three times in their past eight games and four penalties or more five times. It’s highly unlikely that the Flyers get outplayed here. They are a top Cirsi for team and the numbers strongly suggest that Florida is the inferior team by a wide margin. As long as there is not a big discrepancy in goaltenders’ performances here, we should be in position to cash this one.

2 unit play
 

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With Philly goaltenders there is always a big discrepancy chance. Mason strung together some good games until that last clunker he had.

BOL
 

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Bjugstad makes his season debut after getting cleared to play and line shot up. Wish I had waited. Ridiculous line.
 

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yeah wish I had waited as well... I find it's so hard to predict line movement. Seems so sporadic at times
 

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