| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 1 | 0.00 | +7.88 |
| Season to Date | 12 | 5 | 0.00 | +13.46 |
Minnesota +6 -110 over PENN STATE
Rarely do we bet a dog that we don’t believe can win outright and that applies here. The Nittany Lions 9-6 record versus the Gophers 6-8 has the favorite overpriced in this one but in no way is the host the superior team. Last season, Penn State suffered through another tough year in the Big Ten, winning just four conference games. That is the average for Coach Patrick Chambers. In four years with the Lions, Chambers has won a mere 16 games in Big Ten play and the player who won most of those games for Penn State last season is gone. D.J. Newbill did absolutely everything for this team and so PSU is relying on a bunch of unproven freshmen. Of their nine wins this season against cupcakes, VMI, DePaul, Bucknell, Boston College, Eastern Michigan, Canisius, Louisiana Munroe, Drexel and Kent State, five of those wins were by six points or less. This is a Penn State team that lost by 12 to Radford, by 26 to Duquesne and by 23 to Michigan. The Lions are a weak team with a very weak frontcourt. Frankly, there is not much in the frontcourt that should lead anybody to believe that Penn State can battle with the big men in the conference. This team will get consistently outrebounded. Give us the winner in the battle of the boards are we’ll usually give you the point-spread winner.
Minnesota has six wins and the market responds to wins and losses. That’s a flaw we’lll attempt to take advantage of here. Losing Andre Hollins and Maurice Walker has the Gophers stock lower than it should be. No question that Hollins was a stud that can’t be replaced but Coach Richard Pitino did a magnificent job of recruiting. After striking gold in the high school market last year with stud freshman Nate Mason, Pitino decided to return to the gem pot again this offseason. He did grab a couple of transfers (Davante Fitzgerald and Reggie Lynch) but both of those players are going to have to sit out the 2015-16 due to NCAA transfer rules. That leaves five talented incoming freshmen. Four of them are ranked (Kevin Dorsey, Ahmad Gilbert, Dupree McBrayer, Jordan Murphy), while the last (Stephon Sharp) is unranked. That group joins three of the six players that averaged 20 minutes or more per game last year in Joey King, Carlos Morris and Nate Mason. The Gophers are coming off losses to Ohio State and then #1 Michigan State. The Gophers lost by just eight to the Spartans but they did give them a real scare before MSU was able to stave them off. Minnesota also has a 2-point loss to Oklahoma State.
The Big Ten is not any easy conference; everybody knows that. For the past decade, it has been one of the three best along with the Big 12 and ACC. Minnesota is not the best and they are not the worst. Nate Mason is a growing stud, Joey King and Carlos Morris are capable scorers and some of these freshmen have great potential. Now the Gophers take a huge step down in class after playing OSU and MSU to open up Big-10 play. Penn State’s noncompetitive showing against a few cupcakes this year and now going on four years should raise a ton of red flags. Spotting points with Penn State in Big Ten play is not in our toolbox and so any price on an underdog warrants a play. Pick: Minnesota +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
