| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | +8.00 |
| Season to Date | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | +8.00 |
Valparaiso +3½ -110 over OREGON STATE
9:00 PM EST. Oregon State resides in the Pac-12, a well-known power conference that sends several teams to the Big Dance every year. Valparaiso resides in the Horizon League, a conference that most couldn’t name two teams that reside there. The point is that conferences matter so when the market sees a Pac-12 team at home spotting a cheap price against a Horizon League squad, it may appear as a gift. It’s not a gift. Oregon State was one of the feel good stories in college basketball last season after they shot out to a 16-7 record, including 7-4 in Pac-12 play. What was so remarkable about that is the Beavers were projected to finish dead last in the Pac-12 during Coach Wayne Tinkle’s first season in Corvallis. However, the clock would strike midnight and OSU would go on to lose eight of its last 10 games. The Beavers return everybody who was in the regular rotation to finish last season. Oregon State’s backcourt is pretty much set but the frontcourt is not. Victor Robbins, a 6-7 forward, was a regular in the rotation last year before being dismissed from the program in mid-January. It’s no coincidence that things went sour for the Beavers after Robbins’ dismissal. Things may appear to be a little more stable this year after the Beavers started 4-0 but playing four marshmallows doesn’t address anything. OSU’s four victories this season have come against Northwest Christian, Iona, Rice and UC Santa Barbara. Combined, the latter three are a combined 2-9 while Northwest Christian does not matter. The Beavers defeated Iona by 20 points but we would put more weight on the betting line, as the oddsmakers made the Beavers just a -7 point choice over the Gaels and that game was in Corvallis. As a 10-point favorite over Rice, the Beavers won by just eight. At Santa Barbara, Oregon State was billed as a 1-point pooch and although they won by 12, we never ignore what the oddsmakers think of a team. The Beavers likely pay the price here for scheduling their first four games against weak competition.
Meanwhile, Valparaiso is serious about making some noise this year. The Crusaders return all but one contributor from last season’s 28-6 team and bring in some talented newcomers. Last year, the Crusaders won the Horizon League Tournament before dropping a hard fought contest with Maryland in the NCAA Tournament 65-62. Coach Bryce Drew has the luxury of not only having his whole starting five return, but the majority of his bench players as well. All league first team forward Alec Peters is back after leading the team in scoring, points per game, rebounding, free throw percentage, and three point shooting. We also love that the Crusaders have played six games already and this game will be its fifth in the past nine days. Some may see that as a liability but we don’t. These are kids that love to play and have all the energy in the world. This early in the season, all that game time in a short span figures to serve the Crusaders well. They have already played a ranked team in #25 Oregon and lost by just six. Valparaiso also played at Rhode Island (a very decent A-10 team) and won outright. The Crusaders are battle tested already. Those six games they have played should have them primed, warmed up and ready to roll. The Beavers are on a serious upset alert here. Pick: Valparaiso +3½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2)
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