| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.60 |
| Last 30 Days | 52 | 40 | 0.00 | +35.33 |
| Season to Date | 114 | 118 | 0.00 | +25.03 |
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2 unit play
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
CINCINNATI -1½ +170 over Toronto
Instead of using Friday’s miracle comeback to turn things around, the Blue Jays went right back to their bad habits yesterday and got whacked 11-1 for their 11th loss in the past 14 games. The Jays staff has given up 33 runs over the past four games and now it is R.A. Dickey’s turn against the hottest offense in baseball. Current Reds’ batters own a .909 OPS against Dickey and the veteran knuckleballer has been yielding a lot of home runs lately. Dickey left his last start with tightness in his groin and has scuffled on the road this season with a 5.13 ERA. He’s been mediocre the entire year to begin with (15 starts - 4.08 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) and his horrible skills while pitching from the stretch have torpedoed his overall skills. Dickey is walking too many batters, he’s been tagged for eight jacks in the past six games and he’ll be facing a Cinci team that has scored a league-high 53 runs over the past six games. This start isn’t likely to turn out well.
The Jays hit home runs and that’s how they score. If they’re not hitting bombs, they’re as meek as a mouse lately. On Thursday in New York, Toronto hit two, two runs shots and scored 4 runs. On Friday, they belted out four jacks in the 14-run outburst. 72% of the Jays’ runs over the past 15 games have come via the long ball and that’s a difficult way to live. The problem Toronto faces here is that Johnny Cueto does not give up many HR’s. In eight home starts covering 59 innings, Cueto has been taken yard just six times and two of those came in one game on a windy night against the Brewers. Cueto has allowed just one home run in his last seven starts. He comes into this game with a 1.92 ERA and an even more impressive 1.68 ERA at home. He has an oppBA of .169 and at home that BAA drops to .153. Cueto also has a 52% groundball rate and an elite line-drive rate of 16%. Cueto has a great chance to absolutely breeze through this Toronto lineup, as the Jays continue to swing for the fences every AB. It’s the red-hot Reds’ offense that is likely to connect and go deep a few times and put up another crooked number.
