| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 3 | 0.00 | +3.56 |
| Season to Date | 12 | 7 | 0.00 | +9.14 |
#519 LSU +3½ over FLORIDA
1:30 PM EST. Florida is 9-5 and has the exact same record as the Tigers so spotting -3½ points with them may seem like a decent bet but we’re not so sure about that. The Gators are coming off a 14-point loss to Tennessee. They have played some very good teams this year that includes Michigan State, Purdue, Miami and Florida State but the problem is that the Gators won none of those. Florida’s struggles last year, aside from injuries and suspensions were in large part due to missing Michael Frazier and Eli Carter for a few games each. Now both are gone for good.
The Gators newcomers will and already have made an impact. Dorian Finney-Smith, Devin Robinson and Kasey Hill are talented and experienced players who are poised for big things. Finney-Smith has done it before and he will do it again. He leads the Gators in minutes and PPG. Finney-Smith could have gone to the NBA so his return gives Florida real NCAA Tournament hopes. Robinson is an interesting player who came on strong at the end of his freshman campaign and he’s second on the team in scoring. The problem, however, is a lack of depth and so far that has proven to be an obstacle against quality teams. The Tigers are one such team. Against Tennessee, the Gators were a 4½-point choice and lost by 14. They were a 9½-point favorite against Oklahoma State and won by just two at home. As a 4½-point favorite also at home against the Seminoles, the Gators lost outright again. Florida has proven to be far too risky when spotting points and this game isn’t going to be any easier.
Last season, LSU made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six years. It was a welcome return even though the team’s run ended before it could get rolling, with an opening loss to NC State. 22 wins and a tournament berth seemed like something to build on, until realizing how drastically different this Tigers squad would look coming into the season. Out are the team’s two best players, Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey. Martin is now a member of the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA, having been selected 25th overall in the first round of the draft, while Mickey is on the Boston Celtics, a second-round selection by the team. The two were bruising power forwards, standing 6-10 and 6-8, respectively. In are a slew of ridiculously talented freshmen that are starting to show their worth. LSU started the year 3-3 but two of those losses occurred against Marquette by just one point and to N.C. State in OT. They also lost to Houston in double OT so instead of being 9-5, the Tigers could easily be 12-2. What sticks out to us, however, is the Tigers past three games against Wake, Vandy and Kentucky. They lost to a very good Wake team by six points but followed that up with an eight point win over the Commodores as a 10-point dog. Not to be outdone, the Tigers followed that upset win over Vandy with another upset win, this time over Kentucky by 18 points. The Tigers put up an impressive 90 and 85 points respectively against Vanderbilt and Kentucky and they do not take a step up in class here.
Something has clicked with these young players on the Tigers and when a young, extremely talented and enthusiastic group starts to roll, sky is the limit. The Tigers are deep with scorers and they are relentless under Johnny Jones, now in his fourth year. Last year’s club was anchored by a pair of great bigs and a solid guard rotation. However, it was a pretty poor shooting team, especially from the key marks: three and free-throw line. However, a pair of seriously sweet-shooting freshmen has solved that problem and Coach Jones has figured out an ideal rotation. Seemingly out of nowhere, LSU brought in a monster freshman class that includes two 6-4 shooting guards, 5-star Antonio Blakeney and 4-star Brandon Sampson. You might not want to get in the way of the Tigers right because this team is feeling it and we don’t see them slowing down against this beatable host. Pick: LSU +3½ -106 Risking 2.12 units to win 2
