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CS Northridge +12½ -106 over ST. JOHNS

6:30 PM EST. This line is so inflated that we must take the points and let the chips fall where they may. The Johnnies are coming off a 20-point road win at Tulsa. That was their third win of the season with the other two occurring against Bethune-Cookman and Binghamton. Incidentally, Tulsa is 1-7 and one of the worst teams in the Division I NCAAB. The Johnnies play fast and are not afraid to shoot from anywhere. Coach Chris Mullin played that way when he was a Golden State Warrior at a time when the Warriors routinely put up 130 points a game. At that time when the Warriors played, the totals in their games were routinely in the 245 to 255 range. Since the Johnnies couldn’t win a game last year, Mullin brought in some sharp-shooters to shoot from anywhere and play fast. St. John’s is now 3-5 but so what. They started off 7-3 last year before losing 21 of its final 22 games. This is a Red Storm team that plays no defense. If they go cold from the floor, they’re prone to falling behind by double digits in a flash. They are now playing a team in an underrated conference (The Big West) that can hang with them and even win outright.

You may or may not remember last year’s Big West Champ, Hawaii, knocking off Cal in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament before giving the Terps a bit of a scare in the second round. Last season, CS Northridge played Hawaii tough not once but twice in a six-point loss and in a nine-point loss on the Island. The year prior, Cal Irvine, another Big West team, nearly upset #4 Louisville in the first round in a two-point loss. Cal Irvine went to the CIT championship game last year. This year, CS Northridge is the most improved team in the Big West. They have already played #16 UCLA, Texas A&M, Stanford and Northern Illinois. CSUN brings back a slew of talented guards and wings in Kendall Smith, Aaron Parks, Michael Warren, Jerron Wilbut, and Jason Richardson. Smith is the best player on the team and also spotlights as the team’s primary ball handler (though Parks and Richardson are both capable point guards as well). Coach Reggie Theus has a comical amount of depth at his disposal on the wing and in the backcourt and adds some solid replacements for the departed frontcourt. This is a deep and experienced team that will get out and run and throw a ton of bodies at their opponents all game long. What’s so interesting here is that the Matadors will try and beat the Johnnies at their own game. However, we like that the Matadors take it to the rim and attempt high quality shots while the Johnnies will shoot from the perimeter. These crazy Matadors will really test the inexperience of the Johnnies too with high pressure on the ball carriers, which figure to result in a slew of turnovers. CS Northridge has the ability to come in well under the number and hang with this host but they also have another redeeming quality, which is the ability to come in through the backdoor because they, too, can put up points in a real hurry. Just ask UCLA, a team they lost by 15 to but scored 87 points.

Risking 2.12 units
 

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S/wood........great write up...........BOL with your play tonight.........indy
 

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Sherwood, nice analysis and I love your due diligence on the games and patience in selecting games to play. GLTU going forward.
 

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