| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 5 | 2 | 0.00 | +5.68 |
| Season to Date | 5 | 2 | 0.00 | +5.68 |
#525 Fresno State +11½ -106 over OREGON
One of our favorite angles over the years is to play unranked teams early in the season against ranked opponents. There are several reasons why a wager like this holds significant value. First, not enough is established in terms of who the real powers are so these rankings are always inaccurate in the first month. Secondly, there is always a premium to pay when backing a ranked opponent against an unranked foe. Furthermore, there are a bunch of unranked teams that are very talented that the market is not aware of just yet. Fresno State could be one such team.
We’re not suggesting that the 21st ranked Ducks are imposters. Oregon already has a good win over Baylor by seven points. The Ducks also have a decent, six-point victory over Valparaiso. The Ducks other three victories against three cupcakes were all of the blowout variety but we’re going to focus on their two aforementioned victories over quality opposition. Against Valparaiso, the Ducks were trailing at the half. The Ducks could never really put the Crusaders away until late in the game. Against Baylor, Oregon built an 11-point halftime lead and hung on to win by seven. Oregon’s win over the Bears is not as great as it looks on paper because in the first half of that game, Baylor could not hit a shot. The Bears scored just 26 points in the first half but warmed up in the second half with 43 points. That victory over Baylor put the Ducks into the polls at #25. Oregon is now 5-0 and while their defense has looked pretty good, its offense has not.
Fresno State has played five perceived marshmallows thus far so not a lot of credit is being given to its 5-0 start. We can understand that. However, what we like about the Bulldogs is their dominance on the boards, their balanced scoring and their outstanding talent in the backcourt. Rarely is it a good idea to be giving scorers this many points. That’s playing with fire. The Bulldogs finished last season with a 15-17 overall record, but were 10-8 in the tough Mountain West. That included home wins over San Diego State, Boise State and New Mexico. The top five scorers are back, including guard Marvelle Harris. Harris does everything for the Bulldogs and he has the ability to carry the team on his shoulders but the talent does not end there. FSU has five guys that can score in double-digits. They have a strong, eight-man rotation. Cezar Guerrero missed a lot of time last season and only played in the last 15 games of the season. That is a big reason why the ‘Dogs non-conference record was a bit disappointing. Guerrero is a great all-around guard. When he played a full season two years ago, Guerrero averaged 13.1 points, 3.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals. He joins Harris and Julien Lewis to form an extremely potent backcourt. The Bulldogs are not weak up front either. Karachi Edo is a scoring threat that is a monster on the boards and can block shots too. Edo has 40 rebounds already in five games while Torren Jones has grabbed 50. The Bulldogs are a dangerous team that may surprise a whole lot of Mountain West teams this year. We’re going to grab these inflated points on them now before a market adjustment kicks in. Pick: FSU +11½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
