1/20

[TheGuarantee]

YTD: 13-9 +7.1 units

S Fla -5.5 1 unit
Got into this in p of the dribbl's thread. Not much to say other than a tem which beat another team on the road by 20+ laying a fairly short number at home. Line should be about 10 in my eyes even if you correct for S Fla playing over their heads and Depaul maybe playing their worst game of the season. They outrebounded them by 18 and it's hard to see that changing that much where they don't still hold a nice edge on the boards, so I'll take the team with the edge on the boards at home against a team they squashed on the road at this price on principle alone.

Tennessee -1 1 unit
Could have had +1 or pk but don't mind, mostly a hunch pick here based more on my pre-season analysis of these two teams than anything we've seen this season. I really don't think Tennessee is nearly as bad a shooting team as they've showed so far and while they can be lazy and sloppy I feel they will outrebound Vandy and are simply too athletic for the young team. I see a Tennessee run coming soon and while I'm not going to put mroe than a unit on them on the road at this point, but Vandy has looked less dominant at home thus far, and I really think we've seen the worst of Tennessee so far this year - and that still doesn't really justify Vandy being a favorite here.

Good luck.

 

[ScreaminPain]

First, glad to see you're on So.Florida Bulls tonight. It's surely seems like a gift with the line that low, but did you notice the opening line was bet down early....WTF?

I didn't want to answer some of your points in dribbl's thread since he started it and we chimed in. But I wanted to comment on the points you made concerning the Bulls rebounding. I'm aware they out-boarded DePaul last time out, but like you, I think that was more of an aberration for both teams.

As for the season, in Depaul's road games they avg 37 rb's per game with a little over 12.5 on the offensive glass. That's slightly higher than the Bulls can muster as they 35 rpg and 10.9 at home on the season. Why the big difference last time these two met.....I can't explain it....but I doubt it will happen again.

Both are poor free throw shooting teams and that's a small concern. All in all, I still like the Bulls to cover this smallish number.

good luck on "our" action.....

 

[TheGuarantee]

^I think the lower numbers of rpg but S Fla can actually be attributed to an extremely slow pace, therefore less shot/less misses and less rebounds. But yeah, definitely last game seemed like an aberration - I'm still looking for a +5 or so on the boards from S Fla, but we will see. Good luck, hope we cash.

 

[TheGuarantee]

:toast: Screamin. I'm seeing 48-26 rebounding in favor of S Fla according to ESPN boxscore. It says there were no turnovers in the game though so I'm not so sure how accurate it is.

2-0 +2 units

YTD: 15-9 +9.1 units

 

[ScreaminPain]

There were some crazy numbers in the So.Fla game......that's for sure!

The Bulls had 48 Reb's and 21 on the offensive glass. Those are well over their season avg. at home.....and I see DePaul only had 9 turnovers. The biggest difference was obviously the OFF rebounds.

I make the pace at 63 possessions..about their average and a little slow for DePaul. DePaul is horrid, but they played decent last night. Maybe So. Fla took them a little too lightly....who knows?

A win is a win.....congrats!

 

[TheGuarantee]

Yeah Depaul is terrible. 63 I think splits their two averages on possessions. S Fla may have taken them too lightly though I think it was more a regression to the mean after a bit of an aberration of a 22 point win on the road as we both predicted. Still definitely think there was value on S Fla -5.5 there, glad we both hit.