1-11-15 games (For DChosta)

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This is a very short juice filled card, so nothing stands out to me at the moment. Actually I am much more focused on my fantasy football lineups right now. But as you said your card does seem a good bit square, but if you like a team it makes no difference if a pick is so called square or not. Just make sure to knock the juice down. You mentioned the Ducks and you can play them at -1 -124 which makes them much more attractive.

They have not exactly been playing great as of late going 3-2 so far on their home stand. Also to note their 3 wins at home were all 1 goal games. Also they have allowed at least three goals in their past 4 games. Something else of much importance to note is they are having a pregame ceremony for Teemu Selanne by raising No.9 to the rafters. This usually the kiss of death for a home team when this happens.

In their last 5 games which is the major barometer that I use for capping, they are only averaging 2 goals a game with a very bad 11.1% PP. GAA is 2.45 in the same span so not great, but not horrible. They have beaten the Jets twice this year scoring 4 goals in each game. So they are viable, but only knocking the juice down. I think it's too risky playing a -1.5. Maybe a -.5, although OT would kill ya, one of the games this year went to OT. I would stick with a -1. If your book doesn't do a -1 line, I can give you the formula or even better yet, send you a spreadsheet that will calculate it for you.

Now a game you should look closely at is the Panthers\Oilers. The Panthers are playing very well on their road trip and are quite attractive road fave at -119.

Hawks should take care of the Wild where they are on a major skid. Also they are on the backend of a B2B game. But again, just knock the juice down on the Hawks. Even at a regulation or -1 you are still looking at -160 juice which is long term suicide. Hawks play very well at home. When they win in regulation it's usually by more than one goal. Could roll the dice with a -1.5 with slight positive payback. \

LOL, now that I have looked at everything I just took the Panthers at -119.

If you have any questions just ask.

So

Taking

Panthers -119

GL

cheersgif
 

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Thank you for the in-depth analysis on the short card and I wish you the best of luck on your play for today. I will certainly take a closer examination of the games you mentioned and will possibly be playing them later as well! I also hope your FF line-ups does well today. :banger:
 

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I'm also waiting on the numbers/confirmed goalies for an NHL advantage model I've been following with some help from friends on twitter. I'll post up the chart as soon as he said he will be doing so after the Cowboys game is done.
 

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Also for tracking purposes, I would like to see how the alt line parlays do:

[YTD: 0-0]

[+101]
NCAAB Syracuse ML (-580)
Panthers Alt Line +1½ (-340) Regulation Only
Blackhawks Alt Line +1½ (-720) Regulation Only
Ducks Alt Line +1½ (-610) Regulation Only

My main concern would be the Ducks as you stated how pregame ceremonies tend to have home teams fall flat (I recall the Kings dropping their home opener after their Championship banner raising ceremony). However, I feel that the Jets coming off a B2B may start to wear out and keep this game close (at least within 1 score). Hopefully Hutchinson isn't starting. But we shall see how it goes.
 

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Also like Hawks-1.5, and Florida/Edm over 5

I think at worst you are looking at a push in the Oilers game. The Hawks, well as long as they don't lay an egg I think you have a decent shot for sure.

BOL
 

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Also for tracking purposes, I would like to see how the alt line parlays do:

[YTD: 0-0]

[+101]
NCAAB Syracuse ML (-580)
Panthers Alt Line +1½ (-340) Regulation Only
Blackhawks Alt Line +1½ (-720) Regulation Only
Ducks Alt Line +1½ (-610) Regulation Only

My main concern would be the Ducks as you stated how pregame ceremonies tend to have home teams fall flat (I recall the Kings dropping their home opener after their Championship banner raising ceremony). However, I feel that the Jets coming off a B2B may start to wear out and keep this game close (at least within 1 score). Hopefully Hutchinson isn't starting. But we shall see how it goes.

You decide anything on the straight plays yet ? Luongo is confirmed for the Panthers.
 

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I went with the Panthers as well. Here are numbers that I got from my friend.

Jets look like a high advantage play (on the ML) but not comfortable with Pavelec at the net.

aafBcDl.png


LkzodGY.png
 

"Sit on mah lap!"
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Also for tracking purposes, I would like to see how the alt line parlays do:

[YTD: 0-0]

[+101]
NCAAB Syracuse ML (-580)
Panthers Alt Line +1½ (-340) Regulation Only
Blackhawks Alt Line +1½ (-720) Regulation Only
Ducks Alt Line +1½ (-610) Regulation Only

My main concern would be the Ducks as you stated how pregame ceremonies tend to have home teams fall flat (I recall the Kings dropping their home opener after their Championship banner raising ceremony). However, I feel that the Jets coming off a B2B may start to wear out and keep this game close (at least within 1 score). Hopefully Hutchinson isn't starting. But we shall see how it goes.

After some deliberation, I decided to change the hypothetical tracking parlay.

And go with:

Syracuse ML
Wisconsin ML
Blackhawks +1.5
Panthers +1.5
(-118) to win 1 unit
---------

Individually I am taking Panthers ML (-120) SU. GL gents, let us all have a profitable finish to the weekend.
 

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Well that interesting as Rutgers manages to pull out an upset over a top 5 team for the first time in school history. Sure didn't help that Kaminsky was out with concussion symptoms.
 

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Buddy, you're trying to re-invent the wheel, parlaying favourites is a sure way to long term losses. It is simple math. Only a beginner falls for this mirage (or a real attentionwhore like DNI who doesn't care about real profit, but only about imaginary attention). You need to hit plays at the least amount of juice possible. End of story.
 

"Sit on mah lap!"
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Understandably so, which is why I am not playing them for any more than a small fraction of a unit. I and many others have gone down that path and have hopefully learned from getting burned in the past. I understand it is hard enough to win one bet, let alone 2, 3 or 4 all at once. Certainly paying the least amount of juice, finding +EV plays, and using money management are the key towards a consistent success in this volatile activity we call gambling. However, I am an open-minded individual and not quick to shut down other ideas/strategies if they can prove to be fruitful. Generally yes, parlays/teasers + big favs can get you into more trouble than blindly betting against the 'public play', but does that mean you are ruling out ANY possibility of a strategic way of approaching 1:1 parlays that can demonstrate a positive ROI by being selective? Admittedly the Wisconsin pick was not ideal but does that mean anytime a parlay hits they are simply "lucky" as opposed to cashing in a Dog ML or ATS? Not trying to go on the offensive of course, just trying to get dialogue going to see different viewpoints.
 

"Sit on mah lap!"
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We are posting hypothetical records now?

More than can be said about your records, or... rather lack thereof.

Hypothetical might not have been the best choice of word but it is something I'd like to track/document (with minimal stakes).

However, I'm certainly noticing how your asshole behavior is consequentially resulting in NOBODY GIVING A FLYING FUCK about your threads or what you have to say.

Seems like every time you have a loss on the night, you feel the need to come in and let us know you're on your period. If you don't have anything to contribute, why are you even here? You must be a very sad little man.
 

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