'09 Dawoofdaddy NFL thread

[Dawoofdaddy]

I play mostly ncaaf, but will be posting nfl plays here during the season.

Starting with a win totals and week 1 plays.

5* New York Jets UNDER 7.5 wins -115 @ bookmaker.

I hit this future play pretty heavy.

Tough division, another QB change, draft was centered on Sanchez. They got a decent back with Greene, but I don't believe Jets are better than 8 & 8 this season.

More posts coming later today.

 

[Gravy]

I could see the Jets going 5-11 as I was looking at the schedule this year

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Gravy, I agree Jets are below .500 team this year.

All plays below @ bookmaker.com


4* Indianapolis UNDER 10 even

Team is getting older, Dungy is out and offensive coaching staff lost key personnel.

4* Tampa Bay UNDER 6.5 -125

Another team with a new coach and new QB. Overall roster is poor and other division teams are very solid at QB. TB has bottom 5 NFL roster.

2* Miami UNDER 7.5 -125

Fins got alot of fortunate bounces last season, including Brady being injured. I don't like betting against Tuna, but their schedule is very tough this season.

2* New Orleans UNDER 9 -105

Going with a second team under in the NFC South. The Saints won 8 last season and still lack a running attack and a below average defense. They only had 4 draft picks.

2* Seattle UNDER 8 wins -125

Seahags were 4-12 last season, but had alot of injuries. I'll take my chances here the seahags are again below average. A QB with injury problems, a weak defense, SF and STL look to be improved and AZ solid within the division.

I am leaning Tennessee under 9 wins, but they still have one of the better HC in NFL and could get a couple McNair emotional wins. As of now, Tenn under is not a play.

A couple doormat team total overs.

2* Cincinnati OVER 6.5 -130

Dead last in total offense last season, the Bengals get Palmer back this season. If the 2 draft picks can help keep Palmer healthy, I like Cincy especially as home dogs this season.

2* Detroit OVER 4.5 -130

Another team with a new coach and alot of new faces. They had 6 draft picks in top 115 and dumped alot of dead wood from the roster.

 

[barman]

Aigggghttt.....It's always a good time of year when the smiling visage of ToledoTom makes it's return to active posting here at the Rx

=====
Absolutely agree with Bucs Under 6.5.. As I look at their schedule and the placement of Home & Away, I will be very surprised if they are a lined Favorite in more than two games all year. Playing four against AFC East and four against NFC East

With the exception of the NY Jets (using the DDaddy forecast), all Buc home games will be versus opponents with strong playoff potential. That leaves the seemingly weaker opponents of Washington, Buffalo and Miami as Away games.

I'm actually hoping to see the number drop to "6" where I could maybe get in at -110 or better. Six would then result in NoAction, but as you can see from my short review above, I'm frankly startled if they win four games.

 

[barman]

And a smiling hat tip to Cincy over 6.5 as I frankly think they could be back to an 8-9 win threat with Laverneus Coles joining ChadO, who I hope to hell has finally shaken off whatever mental distractions he's been dealing with for past 1 1/2 seasons.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Barman, cheers and hope the forum has a + season.

This should be the last season win total I have:

2* ARIZONA OVER 8.5 WINS +104 @ PINNACLE

Weak division and since they peaked late last season I don't think the season was a fluke many are claiming. They did lose some key coaches, but d coordinator was fired. Looking for OL & running game to improve this year (worst in nfl last year) and Cards to win division and return to playoffs.

A few small sbowl and conference futures. Of course these longshot plays will be hedged if teams get into playoffs.

Played at 5dimes.

.5* HOUSTON TO WIN SUPER BOWL 40-1
.5* HOUSTON TO WIN AFC 21-1

I decided to go this route instead of playing their season wins over 8/8.5. Division looks to be a 4 way tossup and Indi and Tenn both look vulnerable. If defensive free agents and draft choices perform as expected, Houston will make playoffs.

.5* CINCI TO WIN SB 100-1
.5* CINCI TO WIN AFC 50-1

If Palmer stays healthy Cinci should be above .500 this season and if they get into playoffs with this price the hedge will be give a decent profit.


.5* ARIZONA TO WIN SB 30-1
.5* ARIZONA TO WIN NFC 15-1

Arizona is favored to win division and if running game improves as expected they could host or have first round bye in playoffs instead of going wildcard route.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

"Pinnacle
The top-rated sportsbook

Pinnacle Sports Review
US players not accepted"

I gues you will not mind me asking how you placed a wager at Pinnacle, seeing as they do not accept US players any more.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Because I'm not in the US.

Now either start posting some productive posts in threads or at least stay the fuck out of mine.

(<)<

 

[Hitman26]

3 early ones I played:



<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="98%"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 1:20am[/FONT]</TD><TD width="32%" align=left>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</TD><TD width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1250.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</TD><TD width="15%" align=right>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Jacksonville Jaguars - spread +7½ (-125)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000 colspan="4"><TD></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 1:20am[/FONT]</TD><TD width="32%" align=left>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</TD><TD width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1100.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</TD><TD width="15%" align=right>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Cincinnati Bengals - spread -2 (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000 colspan="4"><TD></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 2:48am[/FONT]</TD><TD width="32%" align=left>[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</TD><TD width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1100.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</TD><TD width="15%" align=right>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] [/FONT]</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#99cccc><TD width="100%" colSpan=4>[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Washington Redskins/New York Giants - total Under 40 (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 3:15pm [pending] [/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[FullWageredMan]

Dawoof? You think Betjam would be a solid place to bet some futures?

 

[SportSavant]

good luck in 2009 woof!

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Hitman, I'm also on Cinci -2.5 and Jags +7, but had to buy half pt on both games.

Fullwager, I think there are better books for futures than betjam, but overall betjam is a solid book.

SS, gl this season with the contests.

Rec'd a copy of 2009 Phil Steele NFL annual magazine and it's much improved this season. It's definitely worth the price.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Early plays for week 1 NFL. Will have other plays and at least one teaser or parlay as season gets nearer.


3* KC +9 -110 @ bookmaker

KC bringing in Cassel and again added LSU lineman with top pick looks to be improved. Balt is -8.5 at some books now and will probably be one of the most common sides in teasers. Books will be very happy imo if balt loses this one outright or wins by less than a fg.

5* Cincinnati -3 -110 @ bookmaker

Actually bet this early at bookmaker -2.5 -115, but will use -3 for grading here since 2.5 isnt currently available near -115 and -3 should also disappear soon. Bengals are improved and with healthy Palmer and Ocho Cinco for now is stable, should get a home win and cover vs. an average Denver team.

3* Jacksonville +7 -120 @ bookmaker

It looks like father time has caught up with Indianapolis and Jags had alot of OL injuries last season and the series has had many close games when Indi was a much better team than now.

5* Detroit +11.5 -105 @pinnacle

Lions were a disaster last season and after cleaning house, can really only go one direction this season. Saints have a solid offense, but D is weak and 2 starters are suspended first 4 games.

3* Dallas -3 -113 @pinnacle

TB is among worst teams in NFL this season and are a much weaker overall team than Cowboys. This game is one of only a couple games TB will be only a fg or less dog this season.

2* Dallas/TB UNDER 42 -110 @ bookmaker

Read an article from Tampa coaching staff that mentioned they were going to run the ball as often as possible this season.

2* St. Louis +7 -105 @pinnacle

Hasslebeck has too many injury ? to be laying this many points.

3* Green Bay -3 -105 @ pinnacle

Like the pack at home only laying a fg vs. Cutler in his first Chicago start.

 

[midman2161]

I like a lot of your plays, and I am on the same page with you as far as Houston and Cincinatti being very improved and the Colts slipping back with new coaches and some personnel losses.

One thing that I think you should look at (which Hitman posted up a few posts back) is the under in the Washington-NYG game. These are typically under games, and both these defenses will be great, with Osi returning to the Gmen and Washington adding Haynesworth to what already was a top 5 defense. The total set at 40 is way off in my opinion

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

2161, thanks for your input and gl this season. I dont bet many o/u during nfl. Looks like so far you and hitman at 40 have a good # as its 39.5 and falling.

Bookmaker really moving their lines from the openers, a whole game for SD so I added these a few minutes ago. adds below played at bookmaker.com.

4* San Diego UNDER 10.5 -130

4 very tough road games out of division @ Pitt, @NYG, @Dallas, @Tenn. If they lose those and are even 4-2 in division games, its under. Edit: also tough home games vs. Philly, Washington, Ravens, Miami. Very tough out of division schedule and I dont see them being 11-5 with this schedule.

2* New England UNDER 12 -130

This is sort of a hedge play since already on Miami and Jets under within the division. Need to be 13-3 to beat me and that probably means they are at least 3-1 or 4-0 vs NYJ & Miami.

1* Seattle UNDER 8.5 -130

Added to earlier play with an extra half game since line moved against my earlier play.

 

[johnnydizzle112]

Dawoofdaddy,

I like you Under play with New England, especially since I am a Pats fan, just dont see the team winning that many.

Also really like your Tampa future!! Think your right on the money with your prediction sir!!! Good luck, look forward to seeing your posts throughout the season!!!

 

[Profit01]

Hey Dawoofdaddy, I wanted to discuss Indy with you. I am noticing that alot of people are writing Indy off and I am not sure if that is accurate. You mentioned that they are getting older I am not sure I agree. Granted Peyton is becoming an elder statesman espicially now that Farve is done but I don't think his age at this point is going to effect his play on the field.Freeny and Saunders are just hitting the primes of their career and if they can stay healthy Indy will once again have a decent defense. They actually have gotten younger at wide reciever. I think what we have seen out of Indy over the last 2 seasons is a rebuilding football team that has won 11 games which if you think about it is pretty impressive. Also a couple of side notes. outside of Marinilli (sorry for spelling) Dungy's coaching tree has been pretty successful and I really don't think his leaving is going to be a drastic as people think. I don't think you can be a hall of fame quarterback in the NFL without a very strong ego and this is the first time in a long time that Peyton is going into a season where people are doubting both him and his team and now his younger brother is making the same money he is I personally believe he is going to respond. I think they win that division again this year. 12 wins mim. Thanks for your post and thoughts GL this season...

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

3 early ones I played:



<table width="98%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 1:20am[/FONT]</td><td width="32%" align="left">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</td><td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1250.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</td><td width="15%" align="right">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Jacksonville Jaguars - spread +7½ (-125)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr><tr colspan="4" bgcolor="#000000"><td>
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 1:20am[/FONT]</td><td width="32%" align="left">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</td><td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1100.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</td><td width="15%" align="right">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Cincinnati Bengals - spread -2 (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr><tr colspan="4" bgcolor="#000000"><td>
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Jun 16 2:48am[/FONT]</td><td width="32%" align="left">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Football - Pending[/FONT]</td><td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]1100.00 to win 1000.00[/FONT]</td><td width="15%" align="right">
</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Washington Redskins/New York Giants - total Under 40 (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 13 at 3:15pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>

Hitman, a nice middle is setting up in that cinci game for you.

Johnny agree about ne and tbay looks like a 4-12 type team.

Profit, I guess we will have to agree to disagree about Dungy and others on the staff leaving not making much difference. I also feel that Houston is going to surprise people this season and that wont be good news for Indi fans if Houston surges. They have to be 11-5 or better for me to lose the under 10 wins and I feel pretty comfortable the Colts will slip a notch or two this season.

 

[indiana]

dawoof.............

thank you for your thoughts and time, much appreciated

indy

 

[Coldweather]

Thank you Dawg. Good football stuff. Hope you win a bunch of football money this here year. This is what I want to say about this here matter!

:toast: