I'm seriously thinking about adding Texas to one of my top ATS teams list, even though they won 9 games ATS last year. We usually have an average of one, maybe two ATS repeaters every season in college football. And with the circumstances surrounding Texas and the BCS fiasco they went through last season, they may make sure there are no loose ends this time when it comes to BCS brownie points. The lines are still going to be outrageous for the Horns. Especially in those first 4 games.
Hoping bookmaker.com posts week 1 lines sometime this weekend.
For the pac-10 fans and cappers here at rx.
A one-stop shop for each pac-10 team.
http://www.oneclicksportsnews.com/
For the pac-10 fans and cappers here at rx.
A one-stop shop for each pac-10 team.
http://www.oneclicksportsnews.com/
Whats the hold up on lines, they had been out a week already this time last year. The week 1 lines were pretty soft last yr. Cris in house talent sucks.
ORE -5 A Boise
-15 H Purdue
-12 H UTah
-5 H Cal
-29 H WSU
-11 A UW
+5 H SC
-6 A Stan
-8 H ASU
-3 A UOA
-12 H OSU
Ducks have best cooridater tandem in the county maybe, returning qb who is solid.
ORE -5 A Boise
-15 H Purdue
-12 H UTah
-5 H Cal
-29 H WSU
-11 A UW
+5 H SC
-6 A Stan
-8 H ASU
-3 A UOA
-12 H OSU
Ducks have best cooridater tandem in the county maybe, returning qb who is solid.
Played a few others at greek and betphoenix yesterday, but at different lines so not posting them here as lines are gone and they are smaller plays.
Here is the large stuff Ive bet this morning at cris/bookmaker..."where the line originates".
all plays below played at cris/bookmaker.com. will be more later today and this week.
5* NC ST -3
5* UTAH ST +22.5
5* N. TEXAS +20
5* OHIO U +5 (WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED).
5* MINNY -5.5
5* ILLINOIS -6
8* SAN JOSE +36
4* IDAHO +6
4* MTSU +21
6* UAB -3 -120
edit***ADD
4* TEX AM -12.5
Here is the large stuff Ive bet this morning at cris/bookmaker..."where the line originates".
all plays below played at cris/bookmaker.com. will be more later today and this week.
5* NC ST -3
5* UTAH ST +22.5
5* N. TEXAS +20
5* OHIO U +5 (WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED).
5* MINNY -5.5
5* ILLINOIS -6
8* SAN JOSE +36
4* IDAHO +6
4* MTSU +21
6* UAB -3 -120
edit***ADD
4* TEX AM -12.5
how much per unit? enough to make it interesting and worth my time. ive always played a large card especially early in season.
2 & 3* are avg sized plays. got in the larger stuff this morning will have some 2&3* plays later today and this week.
dont plan to play anything larger than 10* this season and only a few higher than 5* any week.
2 & 3* are avg sized plays. got in the larger stuff this morning will have some 2&3* plays later today and this week.
dont plan to play anything larger than 10* this season and only a few higher than 5* any week.
I agree that week one is an exception and I also usually play more on that week than some others. I am still confused about posting picks on here and the net units vs ATS %. To me they are just two different animals.
Why has no one ever just posted an abitrary line and have a contest where everyone maybe limits their picks to 5 games and/or say 50 units?
Just curious. Or 10 games and 100 units? Has this been done in the past?
It's usually about the winning % when you look at a handicapper's record.
The unit is arbitrary but it's importance is that you can tell by it how well a handicapper rates his picks... and of course it boils down to his profits. I would just be very wary of a guy that gets down and then starts posting picks that have twice the "unit" value as he was posting before as if he's starting to chase his losses.
A unit is a unit... it's a personal matter to each person how much it's worth. Some players play a dime (or 5) per pick or per unit, some put only $10 on a unit. It's up to each person how they manage their funds and how big of a risk they take. It's a relative thing. Two people can make identical bets (in units) and make or lose 10x what the other does. It depends on the size of his unit. (That's what she said.)
The unit is arbitrary but it's importance is that you can tell by it how well a handicapper rates his picks... and of course it boils down to his profits. I would just be very wary of a guy that gets down and then starts posting picks that have twice the "unit" value as he was posting before as if he's starting to chase his losses.
A unit is a unit... it's a personal matter to each person how much it's worth. Some players play a dime (or 5) per pick or per unit, some put only $10 on a unit. It's up to each person how they manage their funds and how big of a risk they take. It's a relative thing. Two people can make identical bets (in units) and make or lose 10x what the other does. It depends on the size of his unit. (That's what she said.)
short writeups for each game now that i have a bit of extra time.
ncst is an improved team, qb was hot late last season and home opener with revenge in mind of last years ass whipping they got from scar. scar coaching staff is a mess again, spurrier appears to be closer to the end than start of his tenure in columbia. i would have bet this game -6.5 and lower.
utah state i like the qb and how they played late last season. utah from a much stronger conference, but after going 13-0 ly, they lost alot of weapons from that squad. i would have bet this game at 17 or higher.
ntex is similar situation as usu. bad team that looks to be improving playing a team that was hot last season, but lost most of its main weapons. ball st faded late losing mac champ game and was completely blown out in bowl game. would have bet this game anything 15 or higher.
ohio is home dog here vs uconn a team that lost some stars to nfl. like solich as a coach and think wrong team is favored. ohio gave ohio st a real fight last season in columbus and think they win outright here. would have bet this one at ohio -2.5 or lower and any + of course.
minny is one of my darkhorse b10 teams. love their offense with alot of weapons, returning qb, great wr, solid ol and a couple good recruiting classes. opposite situation with cuse. new coach, alot of players left the program. like the qb potention with cuse, but not in opener as the cuse d had several starters quit this spring/summer. would have bet minny up to 9.5 but over a td half or less than what ive bet here.
illinois is my 2nd b10 darkhorse. similar offense, returning qb, great wr, ol is ? but missouri is replacing some of the greatest players the program has ever produced like maclin who was also a big special teams and their best big play threat. missouri also replacing much of their d and ill off weapons too much here for missouri to win and/or stay within a td. would have really pounded this one if i would have bet this at opener -3 for big $ but i wasnt as quick this year as i was with last years openers.
san jose is a well coached scrappy team with size on dl, returning qb, ol looks solid. usc is still a dominant team but with a road trip to osu in their heads, i can see pete keeping this one simple and not showing too much offensively. bottom line is usc lost too much to draft again this season and dont expect san jose to be shutout here. thus 36 is too much lumber for usc in this spot. would have bet this anything +28 or higher.
idaho is a merely a line value play. idaho is not a good road team but has decent qb and rb. nmex st has new coaching style and switching from hal mumme pass happy attack to a defensive minded team with dwalker as new coach. thought this should have been a pick em game so i grabbed the 6 pack.
mtsu is a solid and deeper than theyve been in several years. like the offense and have some sec calibur players and coach. clemson very solid this year, but new offensive coaches and thursday road game at ga tech will keep them off the gas pedal in 2h imo. mtsu capable of scoring points and not intimidated playing big names. beat maryland outright last year and went to wire at kentucky b2b weeks last season with a very depleted offensive line. like mtsu anything +17 or higher.
uab has nearly everyone returning and similar team to mtsu with decent talent and coaching staff sec groomed. rice was tough last couple seasons, but lost nearly the entire offense and definitely in rebuilding mode. would have bet uab up to -7.
am -12.5 puking on my plate i missed getting big action on -7 opener, but my number for this game was -19 so played it anyway just for less. am nothing special but some returning talent and they won at nmex last season. nmex a new coach, and defense is very weak especially the DL. not a good recipe for a non bcs team heading into b12 country.
ndame -12.5 simply put, nd finally loaded this season and pre-season whispers about them being in natl title hunt. like nevada, especially the offense, but coming east to play a loaded nd squad less than 2td is a short #. would have bet this up to -16.5
ncst is an improved team, qb was hot late last season and home opener with revenge in mind of last years ass whipping they got from scar. scar coaching staff is a mess again, spurrier appears to be closer to the end than start of his tenure in columbia. i would have bet this game -6.5 and lower.
utah state i like the qb and how they played late last season. utah from a much stronger conference, but after going 13-0 ly, they lost alot of weapons from that squad. i would have bet this game at 17 or higher.
ntex is similar situation as usu. bad team that looks to be improving playing a team that was hot last season, but lost most of its main weapons. ball st faded late losing mac champ game and was completely blown out in bowl game. would have bet this game anything 15 or higher.
ohio is home dog here vs uconn a team that lost some stars to nfl. like solich as a coach and think wrong team is favored. ohio gave ohio st a real fight last season in columbus and think they win outright here. would have bet this one at ohio -2.5 or lower and any + of course.
minny is one of my darkhorse b10 teams. love their offense with alot of weapons, returning qb, great wr, solid ol and a couple good recruiting classes. opposite situation with cuse. new coach, alot of players left the program. like the qb potention with cuse, but not in opener as the cuse d had several starters quit this spring/summer. would have bet minny up to 9.5 but over a td half or less than what ive bet here.
illinois is my 2nd b10 darkhorse. similar offense, returning qb, great wr, ol is ? but missouri is replacing some of the greatest players the program has ever produced like maclin who was also a big special teams and their best big play threat. missouri also replacing much of their d and ill off weapons too much here for missouri to win and/or stay within a td. would have really pounded this one if i would have bet this at opener -3 for big $ but i wasnt as quick this year as i was with last years openers.
san jose is a well coached scrappy team with size on dl, returning qb, ol looks solid. usc is still a dominant team but with a road trip to osu in their heads, i can see pete keeping this one simple and not showing too much offensively. bottom line is usc lost too much to draft again this season and dont expect san jose to be shutout here. thus 36 is too much lumber for usc in this spot. would have bet this anything +28 or higher.
idaho is a merely a line value play. idaho is not a good road team but has decent qb and rb. nmex st has new coaching style and switching from hal mumme pass happy attack to a defensive minded team with dwalker as new coach. thought this should have been a pick em game so i grabbed the 6 pack.
mtsu is a solid and deeper than theyve been in several years. like the offense and have some sec calibur players and coach. clemson very solid this year, but new offensive coaches and thursday road game at ga tech will keep them off the gas pedal in 2h imo. mtsu capable of scoring points and not intimidated playing big names. beat maryland outright last year and went to wire at kentucky b2b weeks last season with a very depleted offensive line. like mtsu anything +17 or higher.
uab has nearly everyone returning and similar team to mtsu with decent talent and coaching staff sec groomed. rice was tough last couple seasons, but lost nearly the entire offense and definitely in rebuilding mode. would have bet uab up to -7.
am -12.5 puking on my plate i missed getting big action on -7 opener, but my number for this game was -19 so played it anyway just for less. am nothing special but some returning talent and they won at nmex last season. nmex a new coach, and defense is very weak especially the DL. not a good recipe for a non bcs team heading into b12 country.
ndame -12.5 simply put, nd finally loaded this season and pre-season whispers about them being in natl title hunt. like nevada, especially the offense, but coming east to play a loaded nd squad less than 2td is a short #. would have bet this up to -16.5
In all honesty, very seldom do I pay much attention to a capper's amount of units per play or strength of play. For the same reason I don't put much weight into somebody or some service who claims this is going to be their game of the year or decade. The way I look at college football is either a game is worth playing or it's not. Simple as that...I'm just as guilty for putting a star rating on my picks as everyone else. But the bottom line is I don't think a game is worth putting money on unless I put it in my thread. The star rating/units of play is very subjective. Important for the capper who is making this bet in his thread. Not important for the rest of us who may play it completely different. The most important thing is I agree with the pick. Then I can go from there. I've seen some good cappers have a good year picking games, but lose money because of their management of units. And on the other side of the coin, I've seen cappers hit under 50% of their games, but come out ahead at the end of the season. That's why I try not to pay much attention to other people's units of play.
GS, what I've done for the past few seasons is rate the plays according to how strongly I feel it will hit. I wouldn't consider posting anything that I didn't think was feasible (*) but sometimes I get a very strong sense about a particular game on a card in a given week (**.) I rarely go higher but on occasion I see a line or total that I think is ridiculous and I may give it ***. That's all it means to me but I do bet the picks accordingly too.
DAWOOFDADDY -- ON ANOTHER NOTE
I know you follow the MAC and I was wondering if you had any feeling about how CMU might open the season. I know this year LeFevour has come right out and said he has the best crop of WR's since he's been with the team. I don't know how they rate defensively, especially vs the run but I hear their pass defense is adequate.
I don't think Zona's passing game will pose a serious threat as both of their potential starters are new guys who are trying to replace the Wildcat's version of LeFevour who just graduated, Willie Tuitama. However Arizona brings back quite a bit of experience on their lines and they aslo retain a couple of very good offensive weapons, namely their posession guy, TE Gronkowski who will likely be an all-american by the end of the season as well as a couple of decent RB's. Their OC is also renown to be quite prolific in his offenses, that being Sonny Dykes who has literally transformed a completely lackluster offense into a genuine scoring threat over the past couple of seasons since he joined Stoops's coaching staff.
I wonder if you have a similar rundown of the Chippewas, especially where they may have a weakness or an advantage over the Wildcats. In your opinion, how do they compare? (If you've got some time sir.)
DAWOOFDADDY -- ON ANOTHER NOTE
I know you follow the MAC and I was wondering if you had any feeling about how CMU might open the season. I know this year LeFevour has come right out and said he has the best crop of WR's since he's been with the team. I don't know how they rate defensively, especially vs the run but I hear their pass defense is adequate.
I don't think Zona's passing game will pose a serious threat as both of their potential starters are new guys who are trying to replace the Wildcat's version of LeFevour who just graduated, Willie Tuitama. However Arizona brings back quite a bit of experience on their lines and they aslo retain a couple of very good offensive weapons, namely their posession guy, TE Gronkowski who will likely be an all-american by the end of the season as well as a couple of decent RB's. Their OC is also renown to be quite prolific in his offenses, that being Sonny Dykes who has literally transformed a completely lackluster offense into a genuine scoring threat over the past couple of seasons since he joined Stoops's coaching staff.
I wonder if you have a similar rundown of the Chippewas, especially where they may have a weakness or an advantage over the Wildcats. In your opinion, how do they compare? (If you've got some time sir.)
Conan, cmu weakness vs most bcs conf teams is they have a small DL & OL. Line is about right i was hoping for 14 or more. If i bet cmu it will only be a small play and if line goes sub 10 ill make a small play on zona. cmu is stronger than zona at both qb and wr.
I think a team total over play may be best angle to play cmu in this game.
I think a team total over play may be best angle to play cmu in this game.
The Arizona First team OL avgs 314, their 2nd team OL avgs 311lbs
The CMU DL avgs 251.5 and one of their 2nd team DE weight 215lbs.
The CMU OL avgs 274.6lbs and the Ariz DL avgs 260 (and are quick)'
Arizona will wear CMU down. From memory I think Arizona returns 7 of their top 8 WR's and both RB's in addition to the AA TE.
This is the longest road trip of the year for CMU, the hottest climate, and probably the best team they will face this year. Their team is made to compete in the MAC not in the Pac 10. I know they have experience but they will be facing an uphill battle all day. How that interprets into ATS we shall see but if Arizona starts scoring early they could easily get into the 40's. This will probably be the best Def CMU will face this year. LY they lost to Geo 56-7 and even Purdue beat them 32-25.
