I could be wrong, and the NBA ceretainly isn't my area of expertise. But I think this is going to be a series for the ages. Mainly because of the inexperience of the Thunder. Things are almost happening too fast for them. Also I've never really liked the bet on the number of games a series will go. If a confident Miami team who has come back from being 3-2 down and won two games in a row, comes in and wins the first game, your bet is done. The Thunder won't take all 3 games in Miami.
OKC favored, but Miami has value
Dave Tuley
The Heat are a bookmakers' dream because they're a very polarizing team. A lot of people love them but a lot of people hate them, so that creates betting handle no matter what. But the team that's been surprising is the Thunder," he said. "Whether it's a matter of people developing a fondness for them because they like the way they play, or if it's because they've been winning money with them" -- OKC backers won and covered the last four games of the series against the Spurs but are also 10-2-1 against the spread in their past 13 games since failing to cover in Games 1 and 2 of their playoff-opening series against the Dallas Mavericks -- "people are really supporting this team, too."
Despite the fact the Heat have been the NBA title favorite all season long, except for a few times when the Spurs took over that distinction after running off 20 straight wins, the Thunder's success, aided by the fact they have home-court advantage in the Finals, made them the favorite when betting opened on the series after the Heat's Game 7 win over the Celtics on Saturday night.
The series opened with the Thunder minus-135 (risk $135 for every $100 you want to profit) and money came in fast and furious on Kevin Durant & Co. and moved it as high as minus-165 some places. The line for Tuesday night's Game 1 also opened Thunder minus-4 offshore and at Station Casinos in Vegas before being bet to minus-5 by Sunday night.
As of Sunday night, the Thunder were minus-155 in the series price at Lucky's with the Heat offered at plus-135 (profit $135 for every $100 risked). Reflected in that slightly lower price is Vaccaro's opinion that OKC might be getting too much credit for home-court advantage.
"The 2-3-2 format in the NBA Finals actually in some ways favors the away team," he said. "If the Heat can get a split in Oklahoma City, then three of the last games would be in Miami and they'd be the favorite."
Vaccaro said he's seeing that reflected in advance wagering. Lucky's already has lines on Games 2 and 3, so bettors can either bet them individually or in parlays before the series begins. The Thunder are just minus-4 in Thursday's Game 2 (note: the zigzag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't been profitable in recent years so I won't bore you with the details, but if the Heat do lose Game 1 as the odds suggest, the Game 2 line is more likely to drop as bettors back them to bounce back and even the series) and the price flips when the series moves to Miami with the Heat favored by minus-4 in Sunday's Game 3.
"We get a lot of people who like to parlay those, especially Games 1 and 2 if they think one team will win one game and the other will bounce back or if they think one team will sweep both," Vaccaro said. "People don't use Game 3 as much because that number could be off by several points depending on what happens."
Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE/Getty ImagesOKC and Miami split their regular-season series.
So, based on what we're seeing out of Vegas, what will happen? If you like the Thunder, the time to bet them is Game 1, though you likely already missed them at a better price at minus-4 or minus-4.5. However, Vaccaro said he anticipates late money from the sharps on Miami on Tuesday, especially if the line continues to rise, so the price could drop before tipoff. The Heat would be the play in Game 2, though keep in mind that these teams split their two regular-season games with each winning and covering at home.
With the Thunder-Heat matchup drawing more attention, that's also good news for bettors as more proposition wagers will be available to capitalize on that interest. Sometimes if you think the game lines are too tight (to find an edge), there's another way to bet. For instance, if you think the Thunder, who have covered eight of the past nine times they've scored 100-plus points, are more likely to win a high-scoring game, you can bet them over their team total of 100. If you think "as LeBron James goes, so goes the Heat," you can bet him over 36.5 points-plus-assists.
Good luck finding your edges, and enjoy what should be an exciting, back-and-forth series. When it comes right down to it, I think the Heat do get a split in Games 1 and 2, win two of three at home for a 3-2 lead, but then it's pretty much pick-em from there with Heat needing just one more win but the Thunder being favored in Games 6 and 7 at home. Having said that, the Heat plus-140 for the series looks like value, whether you love or hate them.
Dave Tuley
The Heat are a bookmakers' dream because they're a very polarizing team. A lot of people love them but a lot of people hate them, so that creates betting handle no matter what. But the team that's been surprising is the Thunder," he said. "Whether it's a matter of people developing a fondness for them because they like the way they play, or if it's because they've been winning money with them" -- OKC backers won and covered the last four games of the series against the Spurs but are also 10-2-1 against the spread in their past 13 games since failing to cover in Games 1 and 2 of their playoff-opening series against the Dallas Mavericks -- "people are really supporting this team, too."
Despite the fact the Heat have been the NBA title favorite all season long, except for a few times when the Spurs took over that distinction after running off 20 straight wins, the Thunder's success, aided by the fact they have home-court advantage in the Finals, made them the favorite when betting opened on the series after the Heat's Game 7 win over the Celtics on Saturday night.
The series opened with the Thunder minus-135 (risk $135 for every $100 you want to profit) and money came in fast and furious on Kevin Durant & Co. and moved it as high as minus-165 some places. The line for Tuesday night's Game 1 also opened Thunder minus-4 offshore and at Station Casinos in Vegas before being bet to minus-5 by Sunday night.
As of Sunday night, the Thunder were minus-155 in the series price at Lucky's with the Heat offered at plus-135 (profit $135 for every $100 risked). Reflected in that slightly lower price is Vaccaro's opinion that OKC might be getting too much credit for home-court advantage.
"The 2-3-2 format in the NBA Finals actually in some ways favors the away team," he said. "If the Heat can get a split in Oklahoma City, then three of the last games would be in Miami and they'd be the favorite."
Vaccaro said he's seeing that reflected in advance wagering. Lucky's already has lines on Games 2 and 3, so bettors can either bet them individually or in parlays before the series begins. The Thunder are just minus-4 in Thursday's Game 2 (note: the zigzag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't been profitable in recent years so I won't bore you with the details, but if the Heat do lose Game 1 as the odds suggest, the Game 2 line is more likely to drop as bettors back them to bounce back and even the series) and the price flips when the series moves to Miami with the Heat favored by minus-4 in Sunday's Game 3.
"We get a lot of people who like to parlay those, especially Games 1 and 2 if they think one team will win one game and the other will bounce back or if they think one team will sweep both," Vaccaro said. "People don't use Game 3 as much because that number could be off by several points depending on what happens."
So, based on what we're seeing out of Vegas, what will happen? If you like the Thunder, the time to bet them is Game 1, though you likely already missed them at a better price at minus-4 or minus-4.5. However, Vaccaro said he anticipates late money from the sharps on Miami on Tuesday, especially if the line continues to rise, so the price could drop before tipoff. The Heat would be the play in Game 2, though keep in mind that these teams split their two regular-season games with each winning and covering at home.
With the Thunder-Heat matchup drawing more attention, that's also good news for bettors as more proposition wagers will be available to capitalize on that interest. Sometimes if you think the game lines are too tight (to find an edge), there's another way to bet. For instance, if you think the Thunder, who have covered eight of the past nine times they've scored 100-plus points, are more likely to win a high-scoring game, you can bet them over their team total of 100. If you think "as LeBron James goes, so goes the Heat," you can bet him over 36.5 points-plus-assists.
Good luck finding your edges, and enjoy what should be an exciting, back-and-forth series. When it comes right down to it, I think the Heat do get a split in Games 1 and 2, win two of three at home for a 3-2 lead, but then it's pretty much pick-em from there with Heat needing just one more win but the Thunder being favored in Games 6 and 7 at home. Having said that, the Heat plus-140 for the series looks like value, whether you love or hate them.
I couldn't agree more that if Miami wins the first game, My 4-1 wager is toast. That's why they call it gambling but you have to admit it's a big if as Thinder are a decent size favorite at home in game 1. I wasn't afraid to tell everyone what I bet so what exactly is your wager ? It's gambling so no shame if We both lose our wagers.
