Service Plays Friday 11/21/08

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Friday, November 21, 2008

Miami-Ohio(+2) at Toledo

Power Rating Projection:

Toledo 32 Miami-Ohio 25


Statistical Projections

Miami-Ohio 23
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 215
Turnovers: 2

Toledo 27
Rushing Yards: 127
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Toledo 35 Miami-Ohio 28

Buffalo(+3½) at Bowling Green

Power Rating Projection:

Bowling Green 30 Buffalo 27


Statistical Projections

Buffalo 26
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 1

Bowling Green 26
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 239
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Bowling Green 39 Buffalo 24
Bowling Green (1 star)

Fresno State(-2½) at San Jose State

Power Rating Projection:

San Jose State 33 Fresno State 30


Statistical Projections

Fresno State 26
Rushing Yards: 174
Passing Yards: 203
Turnovers: 2

San Jose State 21
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 164
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Jose State 39 Fresno State 36
 
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Nelly's Greensheet

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2008
TOLEDO (-3) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
The Rockets have played four of the last five games on the road so
tough scheduling has been a factor in poor recent play. Miami
earned a narrow cover last week but the Redhawks own just one
win over a FBS team this year. Toledo owns a dominant home field
record in recent seasons going 24-10 ATS since 2002 and the
Rockets have been better at taking care of the ball as Miami has
one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. TOLEDO BY 10

BOWLING GREEN (-3½) Buffalo 5:00 PM
This is actually a very meaningful game in MAC play as the winner
could have the inside track for the MAC East title. If both teams
become bowl eligible there may not be a spot available for both
teams given the stronger trio of teams in the West division so the
loser of this game could get left out. Buffalo has had the more
productive offense by about 50 yards per game through a slightly
tougher schedule and the Bulls are on a roll with four consecutive
wins. This is a second straight week on the road for Buffalo but
Bowling Green is 3-12 ATS in the last 15 at home. BUFFALO BY 6

Fresno State (-2½) SAN JOSE STATE 8:30 PM
The Bulldogs have failed to cover in nine consecutive games yet still
receive line respect based on the high expectations to start the
season. It has been an up-and-down season for San Jose State but
the Spartans are bowl eligible and can close the season with a
winning record winning this final game. Last season Fresno State
won with a shutout 30-0 but it is tough to trust the Bulldogs given
how poorly they have done against the spread. The Fresno State
defense has been vulnerable and the Bulldogs have one of the
worst turnover margins in the nation, which has made the difference
in what looks like solid yardage numbers on the year. SJSU BY 3
 
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Pointwise

FRIDAY
Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 23 - (7:00) -- Pair of 2-8 squads. Rockets covered in
final 3:42 LW, but 4 straight losses, & they've allowed >30 pts 15 times since
LY. 'Hawks stayed with BallSt until late going, which pushed dog edge in MU
games to 17-5 ATS. Can't run (#116) but QB Raudabauch may provide edge.

Buffalo 31- BOWLING GREEN 24 - (7:00) -- Balance! Check 224 RYs, 252
PYs in Bulls' OT win at Akron. UB: 33 ppg last 5 behind Willy (18/4) & Starks
(164 RYpg last 2). Check 17½ minute edge vs Zips. BG can't run, nor contain
the run, so it's up to Sheehan, who had 2 TD passes yr ago. Not enough now.

Fresno State 26 - SAN JOSE STATE 23 - (9:30 - ESPN2) -- Impossible to step
out with either squad. Bulldogs bowl eligible, despite 9 straight ATS losses,
allowing 30 ppg in those 9. But Spartans an astounding 550-7 RY deficit last
2 wks, with QB Reed their only "O". Are 0-4 ATS lately, by 57 pts. We pass.
 
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THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES

BUFFALO by 8 over Bowling Green (Friday)


*Buffalo 34 - BOWLING GREEN 26—Hot Buffalo has won 4 straight,
as QB Drew Willy hasn’t thrown an int. in the streak. Bull RB Starks bounced
back from injury to rush for 171 ypg and 7 TDs in last 3 games. BG QB Sheehan
has cooled with the temperature in last 3 games, and Falcons make more
mistakes than title-minded Bulls. HC Gill’s Bulls have covered 7 straight on the
road; BG is 3-13 vs. spread last 16 at home.
(07-B. Green 31-BUF. 17...Bg.23-17 Bu.30/159 Bg.39/140 Bg.21/30/0/273 Bu.20/33/0/215 Bg.0 Bu.0)
(07-Bgu P 31-17 06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT) 05-Bgu -24 27-7...SR: Bowling Green 4-1)




FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21


*Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 25—Both teams played competitively in losses
last week, but they also each have just 1 SU win in last two months. Miami-O.
has QB edge with either Clay Belton (out injured last week) or Daniel
Raudabaugh, who’s coming off one of his best games (254 YP, 0 ints. vs. Ball
State). Rockets 0-4 SU at home this season and have rushed for just 92 ypg in last
7 TY. (DNP...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-20-1)



*SAN JOSE STATE 24 - Fresno State 17—Though earlier WAC contender
SJS hasn’t been the same since 33-16 home loss vs. Boise State on Oct. 24,
still prefer to buck banged-up (top RBs hurt), poor-tackling FSU (allowing 5.8
ypc), which has dropped 9 straight vs. spread, and is 9-27-1 last 37 on board.
Spartans capable QB Reed & WRs equipped to burn soft-covering Bulldog
2ndary (meager 6 ints. last 21 games!). Additionally, Tomey’s troops eager to
atone for previous home effort vs. La Tech (1st shutout in 40 yrs.!), and host has
covered 5 of last 6 in series. TV—ESPN2
(07-FRES. ST. 30-Sjs 0...F.22-18 F.43/251 S.30/140 S.22/44/1/254 F.16/26/0/132 F.1 S.0)
(07-FSU -13 30-0 06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7...SR: Fresno State 36-33-3)
 
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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


Friday, November 21st
TOLEDO over Miami Ohio by 3
With both teams branded by the shame of identical 2-8 season marks, we’ll
be surprised if either squad shows any interest or intensity in this snoozer
(mercifully, this game will not be televised on ESPN). Toledo certainly has
more incentive: head coach Tom Amstutz will abdicate his throne at season’s
end but can we really trust ‘Tommy Large’ in a lame duck chalk role? With
the Rockets closing out the campaign at home again next week, we’d rather
try Tom as a home dog against Bowling Green when the fi nal curtain falls
on his 8-year head coaching run. UT does own a money-making 13-2 ATS
record as chalk off a double-digit defeat but the RedHawks counter with a
recent 3-0 SUATS series dominance. All things considered, we’ll opt to do our
impression of Bradbury Robinson back in 1906 and ‘pass’.



Buffalo over BOWLING GREEN by 1
Unlike the MAC road kill mentioned above, we wouldn’t mind checking
out this tussle between East Division leading Buffalo and 2nd place
Bowling Green. Head coach Turner Gill has worked wonders with the Bulls
in just three seasons, improving from a 2-10 SU start in 2006 to winning
the team’s 4th game in a row in ’08 last week to become bowl eligible.
Tonight’s trip to Bowling Green marks the fi nal stop on Buffalo’s 2008
‘Revenge Tour’ and the Bison have rolled to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark against
their earlier opponents in that role (UB has also cashed six in a row as a
road dog). Yes, the Bee Gees can qualify for postseason play with a victory
here but with Buffalo coach Gill being the answer to this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2, we’d rather go running with the Bulls than take fl ight
with the Falcons.



SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
Fresno State limped its way to bowl eligibility with a win over New Mexico
State last week but Pat Hill’s current team looks more like shelter mutts
than the best-in-show Bulldogs that bullied their way to a 9-4 campaign in
’07. One of those wins was a merciless 30-0 thrashing of San Jose State so
you know Spartan coach Dick Tomey will have his team breathing fi re for
this rematch – if he can get his boys to shake off back-to-back losses where
they were outscored 62-17. SJSU already owns the six wins needed to go
bowling but may need a seventh win to seal the deal following that pair of
ugly defeats. With the series visitor posting a weak 1-5 ATS mark lately and
San Jose State proudly displaying a 3-0 SUATS record in its most recent Last
Home Game scenarios, we’ll look for a Spartan effort from the home team
tonight.
 

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The Soccer Guru

todays pick: Excelsior -.5 (might be found under dutch, holland, or soccer spreads section of ur book) 2pm est

no tie play. Not posting a record, guy has been very good to me or anyone else who has followed.
 
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Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Buffalo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/21 6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Buffalo +3.5 (-110)

Buffalo may be better than even their 6-4 record would indicate. Their four losses have come to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Central Michigan and Western Michigan. They have yet to lose to a team from the MAC East. They are playing their best football of the season, and this game vs. Bowling Green, and the finale vs. Kent State are both winnable games. You can bet they are pumped up for their last two, as the Bulls have never been to a Bowl game in the school's history! QB Drew Wiley has been outstanding, passing for 2,398 yards 18 TD's vs. just four INT's. Running back James Starks is healthy again, and has produced 1,028 yards and 11 TD's, so the Bulls have great balance. The Falcons have been very inconsistent, as they have losses to E. Michigan at home, and also dropped a game to Miami, Ohio at home. They are just 5-5, and have not had to play any of the top teams from the West. Tyler Sheehan has moved the team in the air, but the Falcons don't have a running game, as their top gainer on land has less than 400 yards rushing. Buffalo is the better team, and has more balance and better weapons in this one. They are 8-1 ATS since last season coming off a win as they are here. And, under head coach Turner Gill, this Buffalo team is 18-8 ATS as an underdog. I'll back the Bulls as a live dog here.
<!-- / message -->
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty was waiting on Georgia Tech (-3) Thursday night.

Friday it's the Knicks. The deficit is 760 sirignanos.
 

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JEFFERSONSPORTS 3-1 yest

38-16 NFL last 54 plays (71%) (won pitt yest)
70-43 coll and NFL fb run (62%)
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NCAA FOOTBALL EARLY RELEASE
PURDUE-10 -120
 

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Larry Ness Friday

* I will post the plays for tonight and tomorrow as they are added*


Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-DAY GAME

Miami FL



Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-CFB


Bowling Green
 

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The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, November 21, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Bottom Line it is all about BIG WINNERS and we have a HUGE WINNER in College Football tonight! ALL FIVE of our football handicappers are making this play a BEST BET! The Computer Game Simulator gives our play a 91% chance of covering for us! You can get our 6000* MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR tonight for just $25 and you will be a WINNER or there will be NO CHARGE! We are on a 23-8 CFB run!! 11/20/2008

6000* MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
110 Toledo -3 7:00 EST
 
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Cappers Access

<TABLE width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Sport</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Favorite</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Underdog</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Line</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#0099cc>Pick</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Fri (CFB)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Fresno st</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>San Jose st</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>3-</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>San Jose st</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Fri (NBA)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Magic</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Pacers</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Magic</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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DCI NHL

11/21/08 Predictions
Season: 96-64 (.600)

BOSTON 3, Florida 2
NEW JERSEY 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
Phoenix vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Philadelphia vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nashville vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Anaheim 3, ST. LOUIS 2
 

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Buffalo (+4) at BOWLING GREEN

By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper

We gave you a Thursday night NFL comp play winner on the OVER in Cincy-Pittsburgh, and now it is on to a college football winner for Friday.



We like the streaking Bulls plus the points in this MAC battle tonight from Doyt Perry Stadium.



Buffalo comes in with a ton of momentum, as they have have won 4 straight games, and have covered their last 3. A win today by the Bulls assures them of at least a tie for the MAC East crown, and would put them in the MAC Championship Game, so a lot is on the line for Turner Gill's team in this one.



It also helps that Buffalo has covered 6 straight road games when catching points, and they are 2-0 against the spread the last pair of series meetings as the underdog.



Bowling Green has been playing on an uptick, as the Falcons have won their last pair, and have covered their last 3, but their overall mark at home is a dismal 3-12 against the spread their last 15 on line.



We will take the points with the "road warrior" Bulls to stay inside of the number in this critical MAC East showdown.



Play on Buffalo.

5♦ BUFFALO
 

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Soccer VictoriousPlays:


Alemannia Aachen vs. VfL Osnabrück
November 21st, 2008 / 18:00
Soccer - German 2. Bundesliga
Alemania Aachen are currently 5th in the German second division, and are promotion hopefuls. Today's opponents, Osnabrück, are placed 15th and struggling to stay above the relegation zone. The home team, after a surprise home defeat against Rot Weiss three weeks ago, got back on track and is four points below promotion. At home them have 5-0-1, 8-3 in goals. Impressive. The away team, playing far from their own stadium, has a record of 0-2-4, with 9-16 in goals. Quite a competent attack, but their defense lacks the quality to assure those scored goals turn into points. Although the -3º temperature and possibility of snow, Aachen are still clear favorites to take three points in a convincing way.
VictoriousPlay: Aachen (-1)
Odds: 1.85



FC Volendam vs. SV Roda JC
November 21st, 2008 / 20:45
Soccer - Dutch Eredivisie
This is a battle of the relegation, with Roda, currently 16th with 9 points travelling to Volendam, 18th and last with 4 points. In a game like this, besides quality, much relies on the momentum: Roda just came from a 3-0 win against 7th placed NEC, while tonight's opponents were trashed 0-4 by Sparta. Volendam's home record is 1-1-3, with 10-12 in goals, while Roda's away record is 1-1-3, with 6-9 in goals. Things seem very even, as seen by the records, but Roda, besides having a stronger side, as we said before, they have the momentum, and we believe they will win this game.
VictoriousPlay: Roda JC (0,-0.5)
Odds: 1.80



Karlsruher SC vs. Borussia Dortmund
November 21st, 2008 / 20:30
Soccer - German Bundesliga
It has been quite a while since Karlsruhe's last win, but they might have to wait a little longer to start their climb out of the relegation zone, as 6th placed Dortmund is their opponent tonight. Although having way too many ties so far this season, Borussia is still close to the places they feel they deserve. Their away record is 3-1-2, with those defeats coming against top-sides Hamburg and Hoffenheim. On the other hand, Karlsruhe grabbed 1 point from their last 7 games, so they are clear underdogs for tonight's confrontation.
VictoriousPlay: Dortmund (0,-0.5)
Odds: 2.00



free recommendation from our blog:

Piacenza Calcio vs. US Avellino
November 21st, 2008 / 20:45
Soccer - Italian Serie B
Historical fact: Avellino never won against Piacenza in the confrontations both teams have had since 200. Although the away team recent rise in form after a terrible season start, which has provided them 7 games without a loss, they still only have 2 wins in this year's serie B and are in the bottom places of the league, just 2 points away from the relegation zone. Piacenza is in no better form, but their league position is safer. They are in 14th, with a 2-4-1 home record. However, if Avellino wins today, they will be tied on 17 points. Piacenza knows that and will use this game to widen the gap.
VictoriousPlay: Piacenza (-0.5)
Odds: 2.00


Enjoy and GL!
 

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Larry Ness Friday

* I will post the plays for tonight and tomorrow as they are added*


Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-DAY GAME

Miami FL



Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-CFB


Bowling Green

20 Star Western Conf GOM

Dallas Mavs
 
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Jimmy The Moose
Game: Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers Nov 21 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Reason: The Magic are 8-3 SU but only 6-5 ATS this season. Tonight look for them to get the SU win and cash in at the window. In their last 7 games the Magic are 5-2 ATS. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played with 2 days rest between action. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Indiana is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning % on the road of .600 or better. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Orlando Magic -.​
 

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Paul Leiner:

300* NBA Over 192.5 Phi/LAC

50* CFB Fresno State -3.5

25* CBB Ole Miss -2

10* CBB Miami -6.5
 

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