NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 16
Sunday’s games
Colts (8-6) @
Falcons (6-8)
— Indianapolis won/covered five of last six games.
— Favorites covered their last seven games.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 8-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— QB Minshew is 14-20 as an NFL starter, 6-4 TY.
— Colts are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 road games.
— In its last six games, Indy was +9 in turnovers (13-4)
— Colts are 12-13 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last four games, Colts converted only 14-51 on third down.
— Over is 7-2 in Indy’s last nine games.
— Colts are 10-9 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
— Colts are 16-9-1 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC South road teams are 8-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 10-3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 7-7
— Atlanta changed QB’s again; Heinicke will start this week.
— Heinicke is 12-14-1 as an NFL starter, 0-2 this year.
— Atlanta scored 28-23 points in his two starts (17-32 on 3rd down)
— Falcons lost five of their last seven games.
— Last three games, Atlanta ran ball for 90-96-52 yards.
— underdogs covered nine of Atlanta’s last ten games.
— Atlanta is 4-3 SU/2-4-1 ATS at home this season.
— Falcons are 2-9-1 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Atlanta is 18-25-3 in last 45 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last four games, Falcons were 36-80 (45%) on third down.
— Last two games, Atlanta is minus-3 in turnovers (0-3)
— Falcons are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 3-1 in last four Atlanta games.
— Team total: under 7-6-1. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6-2
— Indianapolis won five of last six series games.
— Colts won their last two visits to Atlanta, 24-21/31-13
— Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Seahawks (7-7) @
Titans (5-9)
— Short week for Seattle after their dramatic win Monday nite.
— Check status as to whether Lock/Smith starts at QB.
— Seattle’s win Monday snapped their 4-game losing skid.
— Seahawks are 7-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-6 scoring less than 20.
— Seahawks were outscored 115-36 in second half of their losses.
— Last seven games, Seattle converted 25-100 third down plays.
— Seattle is 11-17 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
— Seahawks lost their last five road games SU.
— Seattle is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Seattle is 12-10 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Smith is 28-35 as an NFL starter; Lock is 9-14.
— Seahawks are 6-0 if they run for 100+ yards, 1-7 if they don’t.
— Seattle is 4-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Under is 5-2 in Seattle’s road games this year.
— NFC West road teams are 12-7-1 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: under 8-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6-1
— Titans lost five of their last seven games.
— Tennessee is 4-2 SU/ATS at home this year.
— Titans are 7-3 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
— Tennessee fired its special teams coach three weeks ago.
— Titans are 4-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-8 scoring 17 or less.
— Last eight games, Tennessee converted 35-110 (31.8%) on third down.
— Tennessee is 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
— Titans are minus-7 in turnovers (10-17) so far this season.
— Rookie QB Levis is 3-5 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 8-4 in Tennessee’s last 12 games.
— AFC South home teams are 9-8 ATS outside their division.
— Team total: under 9-5. Opponents’ team total: over 7-4-3
— Seahawks won three of last four series games.
— Teams split last two meetings in Tennessee.
— Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Lions (10-4) @
Vikings (7-7)
— Lions split their last four games, after an 8-2 start.
— Lions gave up 37-38-29-28 points in their four losses.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 4-2 ATS as road favorite (4-1 TY).
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 11-7 ATS coming off a win (3-5 TY).
— Under Campbell, Lions are 32-15-1 ATS overall.
— Last five games, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers (5-10)
— Last six games, Lions ran ball for 162.5 yards/game.
— Opponents converted 21 of last 50 third down plays (42%).
— Goff is 66-52-1 as an NFL starter, 22-21-1 with the Lions.
— over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Lions are 8-3 ATS in last 11 NFC North home games.
— Team total: under 7-7. Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
— 4th-string QB Mullens (5-13 as NFL starter) gets nod here.
— LW, Mullens was 26-33/303 passing at Cincinnati.
— He is Vikings’ 4th starting QB in 15 games this year.
— Vikings lost three of last four games (the win was 3-0).
— Last three games, Minnesota scored four TD’s on 31 drives.
— Minnesota is 6-7 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
— Vikings are 6-3 when they allow less than 27 points.
— Vikings are 10-13-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss
— Last five games, Vikings outscored foes 44-18 in first half.
— Under is 9-3 in Minnesota’s last dozen games.
— Vikings are 4-6 ATS in last ten NFC North home games.
— Team total: under 7-7. Opponents’ team total: under 9-4-1
— Home team won last five series games.
— Lions are 0-5 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.
— Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games.
Commanders (4-10) @
Jets (5-9)
— Washington lost five in row, 10 of last 12 games (2-6 ATS last eight)
— Commanders fired their defensive coordinator four weeks ago.
— Since then, Washington allowed 31-45-45-28 points.
— Last 3 games, Washington gave up 10.3/11.3/6.9 yards/pass attempt.
— Washington is 1-9 giving up more than 17 points, 3-1 giving up 17 or less.
— Last six games, Commanders are minus-8 in turnovers (3-11).
— Washington is 10-16 ATS last 26 games coming off a loss.
— Last 12 games, Commanders were outscored 188-82 in 1st half.
— five of their last seven games went over the total.
— 2nd-year QB Howell is 5-10 as NFL starter.
— NFC East road underdogs are 6-7 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 7-7. Opponents’ team total: over 11-3
— How are the Jets favored over anyone?
— Jets lost six of last seven games, scoring 12.9 ppg.
— In those seven games, Jets scored five TD’s on 79 drives.
— Last five games, Jets were outscored 67-17 in first half.
— Jets are 1-8 when they score less than 20 points.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 3-4-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Jets are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Last 11 games, Jets converted 43-175 (24.6%) third down plays.
— Last three games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers (0-8)
— Zach Wilson is 12-21 as an NFL starter.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 13-16 ATS coming off a loss.
— Jets are 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
— AFC East home favorites are 5-8 ATS outsize the division.
— Team total: under 9-4-1. Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
— Jets won/covered last three series games.
— Teams split last two meetings played here.
— Last four series games went over the total.
Packers (6-8) @
Panthers (2-12)
— Green Bay lost its last two games, 24-22/34-20.
— Packers lost five of their last six road games.
— Green Bay outscored last four foes 59-32 in first half.
— Last four games, Packers are +4 in turnovers (7-3)
— Packers are 4-5 TY in one-score games.
— Last six games, Green Bay is 43-91 (47.3%) on third down.
— Packers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Jordan Love is 6-9 as an NFL starter.
— Packers are 15-8 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss (2-4 TY).
— Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
— Last six weeks, Green Bay gave up 158.5 rushing yards/game.
— NFC North favorites are 8-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 7-7. Opponents’ team total: under 8-5-1
— Carolina lost six of its last seven games (3-4 ATS).
— Carolina allowed 13-7 points in its two wins.
— Panthers fired their coach and two assistants three weeks ago.
— Carolina is 2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS at home, losing by 3-8-14-23 points.
— Last five games, Panthers were outscored 62-15 in first half.
— In eight post-bye games, Panthers scored six TD’s on 81 drives.
— In eight post-bye games, Carolina scored 11.8 ppg.
— Carolina is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games following a win.
— LW, Carolina averaged 5.7 yards/pass attempt, their best since Week 5.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started (5.5 ypa)
— Carolina gained 303 yards LW, its most since Week 5 (ran for 204 yards).
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— NFC South home underdogs are 1-6 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 10-4. Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
— Green Bay won eight of last 12 series games.
— Packers are 3-4 SU/ATS in last seven visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Browns (9-5) @
Texans (8-6)
— Cleveland won its last two games, by 4-3 points.
— Browns won/covered five of last seven games.
— Flacco has completed 57.9% of passes (7 TD’s, 5 INTs).
— Flacco is 101-82 as NFL starter, 19th NFL QB ever with 100+ wins.
— Browns have started four different QB’s this season.
— Cleveland is 7-3 SU in last ten games (5-2 ATS in last seven)
— Last five games, Browns were outscored 78-48 in second half.
— Last five weeks, Browns are 21-80 (26.3%) on third down.
— Last two weeks, Cleveland have four TD plays of 30+ yards.
— Browns are 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Browns are 6-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Opponents have converted only 53-187 (28.3%) third down plays.
— over is 3-1 in last four Cleveland games.
— AFC North teams are 26-12 SU outside the division.
— Team total: over 9-3-2. Opponents’ team total: over 7-7
— Check status on which QB starts, Stroud (concussion)/Keenum.
— Backup Keenum was 23-36/229 passing in LW’s 19-16 win.
— Houston won five of its last seven games.
— Keenum is 30-35 as an NFL starter (1-0 TY)
— Underdogs covered 10 of their last 12 games.
— Houston is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Texans are 13-15-1 ATS in last 29 games as a home dog.
— Last four games, Texans are +5 in turnovers (6-1).
— Houston is 11-14-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
— Rookie QB Stroud is 7-6 as an NFL starter.
— under is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
— AFC South home underdogs are 6-4 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-5-1. Opponents’ team total: under 10-4
— Cleveland won last three series games, giving up 14 ppg.
— Texans, however, covered seven of last eight meetings.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Jaguars (8-6) @
Buccaneers (7-7)
— Jacksonville lost its last three games, giving up 34-31-23 points.
— QB Lawrence is banged up (ankle/concussion; check status)
— Jaguars are 6-1 SU/ATS outside Jacksonville TY.
— under Pederson, Jaguars are 9-6 ATS in true road games.
— Last four weeks, Jaguars ran ball for only 71.3 yards/game.
— TY, Jags are 4-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— under Pederson, Jaguars are 6-7 ATS coming off a loss.
— Jaguars are minus-7 in turnovers in their losses (+4 in wins).
— Pederson is 64-54-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 20-28 as an NFL starter.
— Backup QB Beathard is 2-10 as an NFL starter (last start, 2020)
— Four of Jaguars’ last five games went over the total.
— Team total: over 7-6-1. Opponents’ team total: under 7-7
— Bucs won their last three games, scoring 21-29-34 points.
— Tampa Bay covered six of its last eight games.
— Bucs are 2-6 when they allow more than 18 points.
— Bucs are 5-1 when they allow less than 18 points.
— Tampa Bay split its six home games SU this year.
— Bucs have 20 takeaways in 14 games (+6 turnovers)
— Last four games, opponents were 20-63 (31.7%) on third down.
— Buccaneers are 13-10 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
— Over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last four games.
— Last week, Mayfield averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Mayfield is 39-46 as an NFL starter (1-1 in playoffs)
— NFC South teams are 16-22 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 6-6-2. Opponents’ team total: under 7-6-1
— Buccaneers won last two meetings, 28-11/38-31.
— Jaguars split their last two visits to Tampa.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.
Cardinals (3-11) @
Bears (5-9)
— Arizona is 2-9 SU/4-7 ATS in its last eleven games
— Cardinals are 3-4 ATS as a road dog TY (10-3 in 2021-22).
— Cardinals are 0-9 SU when they score less than 25 points.
— Last six games, Arizona was outscored 93-53 in first half.
— Arizona ran for 150-234 yards in its last two games.
— Cardinals lost 22 of last 27 games SU (11-13 ATS in last 24).
— Murray is 27-35-1 as an NFL starter.
— Last two games, Cardinals are 17-33 on third down.
— Under is 5-0 in Arizona’s last five road games.
— Arizona is 12-10 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
— Team total: over 8-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6-1
— Chicago won/covered three of last five games.
— Four of those five games were decided by 5 or less points.
— Bears are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games.
— Bears are 2-5 in one-score games this season.
— Chicago is 2-8 when it scores less than 28 points
— Last two games, Bears are 10-32 (31.3%) on third down.
— Fields is 8-27 as an NFL starter.
— Bears haven’t led at halftime since Week 7 vs Las Vegas.
— last 2+ years, Bears are 14-34 SU/19-27-2 ATS.
— Chicago is 0-3-1 ATS in last four games as favorites.
— Chicago is 5-3 ATS in games coming off a loss this year.
— Six of their seven games stayed under the total.
— Team total: under 8-6. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6-1
— Road team won last six series games.
— Cardinals won/covered last three visits to Chicago.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Cowboys (1o-4) @
Dolphins (10-4)
— Cowboys had 5-game win streak snapped in Buffalo LW.
— Dallas lost four of its last six road games SU.
— Dallas scored 16-10-23-10 points in losses, 37.2 ppg in wins.
— Dallas is 3-4 SU on road TY (favorites 6-1 ATS).
— Cowboys are 6-9 ATS last 15 games as a road dog (0-3 TY).
— Cowboys are +14 in turnovers in wins, minus-6 in losses.
— Dallas is 11-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
— QB Prescott is 74-43 as an NFL starter.
— Red flag: Buffalo ran ball for 266 yards vs Dallas last week.
— Dallas is 7-3 ATS in last ten games vs AFC opponents.
— Seven of last eight Dallas games went over the total.
— Team total: over 10-4. Opponents’ team total: under 7-6-1
— Dolphins won five of their last seven games SU.
— Miami is 0-3 SU vs teams that currently have winning record.
— Favorites are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
— Miami scored 30+ points in eight of ten wins; 20-17-14-27 in losses.
— Last two games, Miami is +6 in turnovers (7-1).
— Overall, Dolphins have scored 53 TD’s on 147 drives.
— Last four games, Miami converted 28-57 third down plays.
— Dolphins are 10-8 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC teams.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-7 ATS coming off a win.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Tagovailoa is 31-17 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 8-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
— Dallas won last four series games.
— Cowboys won 24-14/37-20 in last two visits to Miami.
— Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Patriots (3-11) @
Broncos (7-7)
— Patriots lost six of seven, nine of last eleven games (2-9 ATS).
— Four of NE’s last five losses were by six or fewer points.
— Last five games, Patriots scored six TD’s on 55 drives.
— Patriots are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog (1-3 TY)
— New England is minus-8 in turnovers this year (+38 from 2019-22).
— Since Brady left, NE is 28-36 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— In his career, Belichick is 83-101 without Brady.
— Zappe is 3-2 as an NFL starting QB, Mac James 18-26.
— Last week was first time in five games that NE gave up 300+ yards.
— Under is 9-4-1 in New England games this season.
— AFC East underdogs are 7-10 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 11-3. Opponents’ team total: over 7-6-1
— Broncos are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in their last eight games.
— Three of those six wins were by 1 or 2 points.
— Last seven games, Denver is +8 in turnovers.
— Last three games, Broncos were outscored 34-13 in first half.
— Denver is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS on road this season.
— Last four weeks, Denver converted only 16-54 on third down.
— Broncos are 12-14-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
— Denver is 2-7-1 ATS last ten games as a home favorite (1-4 TY).
— Seven of last nine Bronco games stayed under the total.
— Russell Wilson is 124-78-1 as an NFL starter, 11-18 with Denver.
— AFC West favorites are 11-13 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 8-6. Opponents’ team total: under 8-6
— New England won seven of last nine series games.
— Patriots won/covered three of last four visits to Denver.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
Monday’s games
Raiders (6-8) @
Chiefs (9-5)
— First road game in five weeks for Raiders (2nd since Halloween).
— Las Vegas won 63-21 LW; in previous 3 games, they scored total of 30 points.
— Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games, but lost three of last four SU.
— Last two games, Raiders blanked their opponent in first half.
— Home team won 9 of Raiders’ last 11 games (8-2-1 ATS).
— Las Vegas is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog TY.
— Raiders are 8-6 ATS in last 14 AFC West road games.
— Under is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Raiders are 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
— Las Vegas scored two defensive TD’s against the Chargers LW.
— Team total: under 12-2. Opponents’ team total: under 9-5
— Chiefs lost four of last seven games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs haven’t had a plus turnover game since Week 6.
— In last seven games, Chiefs are minus-7 in turnovers (5-12)
— KC has outscored opponents 213-118 in first half.
— Chiefs are 13-16 ATS in last 29 games as home favorite (3-3 TY).
— Kansas City lost its last two home games SU.
— Chiefs held 10 of last 12 foes under 5.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last four games, KC converted 31-68 third down plays (45.6%)
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— TY, Chiefs are 4-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Mahomes is 84-24 SU as an NFL starter.
— AFC West teams are 13-20-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 10-3. Opponents’ team total: under 10-3
— Chiefs (-8) won 31-17 in Las Vegas in Week 12.
— Chiefs won five in row, 15 of last 17 series games.
— Raiders are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Giants (5-9) @
Eagles (10-4)
— Giants had their 3-game win streak snapped in New Orleans LW
— Last seven weeks, Big Blue was outscored 85-37 in first half.
— Rookie QB DeVito won three of his first five NFL starts.
— Last three weeks, Giants are 9-39 on third down.
— Giants were held under 300 TY in six of last seven games.
— Last ten games, Giants are +14 in turnovers.
— TY, Giants are 3-5 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— since 2018, Big Blue is 11-21-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under is 9-3 in Giant last 12 games.
— Giants are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 NFC East road games.
— Team total: under 8-5. Opponents’ team total: over 6-6-1
— Eagles lost last three games, giving up 31.7 points/game.
— Last five games, Eagles were outscored 75-36 in first half.
— Last two games, Eagles have 2 TD’s on 17 drives.
— Last ten games, Philly is minus-10 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 11-4-2 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite (2-1-2 TY).
— Eagles scored 21+ points in all of their wins, 14-19-13-17 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 35-17 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-7 ATS coming off a loss.
— Hurts is 35-17 as an NFL starter.
— Over is 5-1 in Eagles’ home games.
— Eagles were minus-8 in turnovers in their losses (+2 in wins).
— Team total: over 7-6-1. Opponents’ team total: over 5-2 last seven
— Eagles are 17-3 in last 20 series games (9-5 ATS last 14)
— Giants are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Philadelphia.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Ravens (11-3) @
49ers (11-3)
— Ravens won eight of last nine games (6-3 ATS).
— Last seven games, Baltimore scored 22 TD’s on 72 drives.
— Last six games, they ran ball for 190.5 yards/game.
— Last eleven games, Ravens outscored foes 183-61 in first half.
— Baltimore is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS on road this year (dogs 4-2 ATS).
— Ravens are 11-1 when they score 20+ points, 0-2 if they do not.
— Baltimore is 12-15 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is minus-6 in TO’s in its losses, +7 in wins.
— Lamar Jackson is 57-22 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Ravens are 14-19-1 ATS last 34 games vs NFC opponents.
— over is 5-3 in Baltimore’s last eight games.
— AFC North teams are 23-17-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 9-5. Opponents’ team total: under 9-4-1
— SF is 6-0 since its bye week (4-2 ATS), scoring 34.5 ppg.
— 49ers scored 27+ points in wins, 17-17-17 in losses.
— Last five weeks, 49ers were +8 in turnovers (10-2)
— 49ers have outscored opponents 195-111 in 2nd half.
— SF ran for 169-146-173-234 yards in their last four games.
— 49ers are 3-3 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— SF is 15-13 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
— Last four weeks, 49ers have 19 TD’s on 39 drives.
— Last week, 49ers averaged 7.5 yards/play on their 54 plays.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 18-4 as NFL starter.
— Team total: over 9-5. Opponents’ team total: over 8-6
— Ravens won three of last four series games.
— Teams split their last two meetings in California.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
