2023 NCAA FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS & NEWS AND NOTES!

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Last six Heisman Trophy winners, how they did in their bowl games:
2022- Caleb Williams, USC- L45-46
2021- Bryce Young, Alabama- W27-16/L18-33
2020- DeVonta Smith, Alabama- W31-14/W52-24
2019- Joe Burrow, LSU- W63-28
2018- Kyler Murray, Oklahoma- L34-45
2017- Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma- L48-54, OT

Quote of the Day
“Life is made up of small pleasures. Happiness is made up of those tiny successes. The big ones comes too infrequently, and if you don’t collect all these tiny successes, the big ones don’t really mean anything.”
Norman Lear

Sunday’s quiz
Which college basketball team is known as the Anteaters?

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; they lost to Kansas City in that series.

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..​

— Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700M contract with the Dodgers, setting all kinds of records for the biggest contract ever; a lot of the money will be in deferred payments, so LA has some ability to sign starting pitching- they’re little short on that right now.
There are stories how the Angels made $10-20M a year in advertisements when Ohtani was in Anaheim, so the Dodgers will get some of that $70M a year back, plus jersey sales, going to be lot of jerseys sold in Japan.
Dodgers-Padres open the 2024 regular season with couple of games in South Korea.

— LSU’s QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy, joining Joe Burrow, Billy Cannon as LSU alums who won the Heisman.
There were three quarterbacks among the four finalists for the award this year; all three of them transferred during their college career.

— Purdue 92, Alabama 86
Zach Edey scored 35 points, in his return to Toronto, his hometown.
Alabama was 19-46 on the arc, 10-18 inside the arc.
Purdue outscored the Crimson Tide 24-9 on the foul line.

— Clemson 74, TCU 66
Other game in Toronto was this battle of surprising unbeatens.
Clemson is now 9-0, vs schedule #32- improved team.
TCU is 7-1, but they’ve played easiest schedule in country so far.

— Tennessee 86, Illinois 79
All five Tennessee starters scored in double figures.
There were 62 foul shots in this game; lot of fouls.
Vols are 6-3, against the 6th-toughest schedule this season.

— Utah 73, BYU 69
First loss for BYU, which shot 7-30 on the arc.
Utah shot 64.5% inside the arc.

— Upsets of the Day:
Marshall (+9) 74, Ohio U 69
San Diego (+7.5) 89, Arizona State 84
South Florida (+7.5) 88, Florida State 72
Eastern Washington (+7.5), Air Force 68
Idaho (+6.5) 63,, Utah Tech 62
Saint Mary’s (+5.5) 64, Colorado State 61
Grand Canyon (+4.5) 69, Liberty 64
Washington (+4.5) 78, Gonzaga 73

— Word of the Day: Bonanza- a situation or event that creates a sudden increase in wealth, good fortune, or profits.
This week has been a bonanza for Shohei Ohtani.

— Penn State 83, Ohio State 80
Buckeyes led by 18 with 15:31 left in the game.
Both teams shot over 40% on the arc.

— Xavier 84, Cincinnati 79
Xavier outscored the Bearcats 22-10 on foul line.
First loss of season for 7-1 Bearcats; Xavier is 5-5.

— Villanova 65, UCLA 56
UCLA lost three of last four D-I games (beat Cal-Riverside by 1)
Villanova snaps three-game skid with this win.
Villanova is 5-2 vs top 100 teams, only 2-2 vs teams outside top 100.

— Rutgers 70, Seton Hall 63
Scarlet Knights win in this Garden State rivalry.
This is Rutgers’ first win in four top 100 games.
Seton Hall is now 0-4 vs top 100 teams.

— Auburn 104, Indiana 76
Tigers outscored Indiana 32-8 in last 10:00 of first half.
Auburn shot 14-29 on the arc.
Hoosiers start two frosh, two sophs, very young for this era.

— Washington 78, Gonzaga 73
Gonzaga’s 16-game win streak against the Pac-12 ends.
Three guys on Gonzaga played all 40:00; they’re not deep.
— Four of the country’s 12 unbeaten teams got beat Saturday.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs Ohio U
Georgia Southern (6-6)
— Eagles lost their last four games, giving up 39.3 ppg.
— Eagles beat Ball State of MAC 40-3 in September.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 115 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 22 games at Tulsa.
— Georgia Southern scored 34+ points in its six wins.
— Georgia Southern’s coach is former USC coach Clay Helton.
— under Helton, Eagles are 8-5 ATS as a favorite.
— Helton is 2-4 as a head coach in bowls.
— over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six games.
— since 2015, Panthers are 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in bowls
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-5 ATS this year.


Ohio U (9-3)
— Ohio won its last three games, giving up 14.7 ppg.
— Bobcats are 8-0 when they score 17+ points.
— Bobcats allowed 17 or less points in eight of their nine wins.
— Ohio is +10 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— Bobcats are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
— Ohio U is 4-2 SU in on the road this year.
— Albin won his first bowl game 30-27 (-2.5) over Wyoming LY.
— under is 7-4 in their I-A games this season.
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS this year.

— Favorite won/covered all three Myrtle Beach Bowls.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Average total in the three Myrtle Beach Bowls: 57.7.
— Since 2018, MAC teams are 15-9-1 ATS in games vs Sun Belt teams.


New Orleans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs Louisiana
Jacksonville State (8-4)
— Jacksonville State is 8-4 in its first year as a I-A team.
— Jax State is 7-1 when it scores 20+ points.
— Gamecocks were held to 17 or less points in 3 of its 4 losses.
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 5-6 SU in bowl games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— Gamecocks have +11 turnover ratio.
— Gamecocks are 3-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— JSU completed 50% or less of its passes in 5 of last 8 games.
— over is 3-1 in the Gamecocks’ last four games.
— Conference USA favorites are 4-4 ATS, out of conference.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.
— This is obviously Jax State’s first bowl game.


Louisiana (6-6)
— Louisiana is 6-0 if they score 33+ points, 0-6 if they score less than 33.
— ULL is 6-0 if they run ball for 200+ yards, 0-6 if they don’t.
— Louisiana lost three of last four games, after a 5-3 start.
— Ragin’ Cajuns are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog (3-1 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB is completing 70.9% of passes- 7 TD’s, 3 INTs.
— Cajuns gave up 31+ points in five of their six losses.
— Louisiana is 2-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— ULL is 2-4 away from home this season.
— Louisiana’s last three games went over the total.
— Coach Desormeaux is 1-1 in bowl games.
— ULL went bowling the last five years, going 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS.
— Cajuns won this bowl 36-21 (-4) over Marshall two years ago.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS, out of conference.


— Favorites won/covered seven of last eight New Orleans Bowls.
— Last 11 years, Sun Belt teams are 8-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs C-USA teams.


Cure Bowl
Miami OH vs Appalachian State (@ Orlando, FL)
Miami OH (11-2)
— Miami won its five games, giving up only 11 ppg.
— Red Hawks are 9-0 if they score 23+ points.
— Miami covered nine of its last 11 games.
— Miami was held to 3-17 points in its two losses (Miami FL/Toledo)
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 61 starts back on offensive line- lost 2 starters to transfer portal.
— senior QB has 29 career starts
— Miami is 3-2 ATS as an underdog TY.
— under Martin, Miami is 34-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Miami was 6-7 SU LY despite a +11 turnover ratio.
— Miami is 11-2 TY, with a +2 turnover ratio.
— under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Miami played in bowls three of last four years, going 1-2 SU.
— Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowls.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS this year.


Appalachian State (8-5)
— App State won five of its last six games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— ASU is 2-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— App State is 3-4 ATS as a favorite TY.
— ASU is 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.
— ASU is 8-1 scoring 26+ points, 0-4 scoring 24 or less.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 65 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB played JC ball; he’s thrown 33 TD’s, 9 INT this year.
— App State covered four of its last five games (+5 in turnovers).
— ASU gained 500+ TY in three of last six games.
— under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— ASU is 6-1 in bowl games (lost 59-38 to Western Kentucky LY).
— App State is 3-1 ATS as a favorite in bowl games.
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-5 ATS this year.


— Underdogs covered this bowl six of last seven years.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-4 SU in this bowl.
— Since 2018, MAC teams are 15-9-1 ATS in games vs Sun Belt teams.


New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs New Mexico State
Fresno State (8-4)
— Fresno lost its last three games, after an 8-1 start.
— Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
— Fresno scored 27+ points in its seven I-A wins.
— In their losses, Bulldogs scored 19-18-17-18 points.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at UCF.
— in his career, Tedford is 29-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Fresno is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as an underdog.
— last five years, Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in bowl games.
— Mountain West underdogs are 17-9 ATS out of conference.
— Fresno won this bowl two years ago, 31-24 (-11) over New Mexico.


New Mexico State (10-4)
— Aggies won eight of last nine games, after a 2-3 start.
— Aggies are 17-10 SU under coach Kill (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— State won 31-10 at Auburn in November.
— Aggies are 9-1 when they give up less than 33 points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Aggies are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— In his career, coach Kill is 35-24 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, coach Kill is 1-5 SU in bowl games.
— Nine of State’s last 12 games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.
— Aggies are 4-0-1 SU all-time in bowl games.
— Conference USA favorites are 4-4 ATS, out of conference.
— Aggies (+2.5) upset New Mexico 27-17 on this field in September.
— Fresno State won seven of last eight meetings (last one was 2019).
— Bulldogs were double digit favorite in 7 of the 8 games.
— New Mexico State covered six of last seven meetings.
— under is 7-1 in last eight series games.


— Last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in this bowl the last six years, 54.5.
— Mountain West team won this bowl the last five years (4-1 ATS)
— This year, Mountain West teams are 4-1 SU vs C-USA squads.


Los Angeles Bowl
Boise State @ UCLA
Boise State (8-5)
— Boise fired its coach November 12, has now won four in a row.
— Boise is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Broncos won last four games, running for 263 yards/game.
— Broncos are minus-1 in turnovers this season.
— Last six years, Boise was +31 in turnovers.
— Broncos allowed 31+ points in four of their five losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— since 2014, Boise is 10-5 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY)
— over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— since 2017, Boise is 2-1 in bowls (had two cancelled)
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.


UCLA (7-5)
— UCLA lost three of last four games, scoring 10-7-7 points in losses.
— UCLA is 7-0 scoring 25+ points, 0-5 if they score less.
— No one ran for more than 133 yards against the Bruins TY.
— UCLA is 1-1 TY in games decided by less than 10 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— UCLA has been juggling three QB’s; one already transferred.
— under Kelly, Bruins are 13-22 ATS as favorites (3-5 TY).
— under is 10-1 in their I-A games this season.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.
— This year, Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.


— Mountain West teams beat Pac-12 squads in first two LA Bowls.
— 2022-23, MW teams are 3-17 SU/7-13 ATS vs Pac-12 teams TY.
— From 2017-21, MW teams were 25-16 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.


Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
California vs Texas Tech
California (6-6)
— Cal won last three games, scoring 34 ppg, to become bowl eligible.
— This is Cal’s first bowl since 2019.
— Bears allowed 34+ points in their last five losses.
— Cal scored 32-40-49 points in three of their losses.
— In four of last five games, Cal allowed 309+ passing yards.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB completed 62.4% of passes (13 TDs, 7 INT).
— since 2017, Golden Bears are 29-14 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2018, Cal is 8-8 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— over is 5-2 in Cal’s last seven games.
— Golden Bears are 2-3 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— This year, Pac-12 underdogs are 3-3 ATS out of conference.


Texas Tech (6-6)
— Tech won three of last four games, to become bowl eligible.
— Last three games, Red Raiders gave up 247 rushing yards/game.
— Tech is 2-6 if they score less than 35 points.
— Last seven games, Red Raiders are minus-9 in turnovers.
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB is completing 61.8% of passes (12 TD’s, 7 INTs)
— under McGuire, Tech is 6-7 ATS as a favorite (3-5 TY).
— under is 6-4 in their last 10 I-A games.
— Red Raiders are in a bowl for third straight year.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.
— This year, Big X favorites are 10-13 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2004.
— last seven years. underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 13-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents (1-3 TY)
— Last seven years, average total in Independence Bowl was 59.3.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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December 16

Georgia Southern @ Ohio
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games
Georgia Southern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio
Ohio is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Ohio's last 12 games

Jacksonville State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Miami-OH @ Appalachian State
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami-OH is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New Mexico State @ Fresno State
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Mexico State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Fresno State
Fresno State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Mexico State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Fresno State's last 8 games when playing New Mexico State

California-Los Angeles @ Boise State
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California-Los Angeles's last 5 games
California-Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boise State
Boise State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

California @ Texas Tech
California
California is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of California's last 7 games
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


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[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack:
— Long Beach State 84, USC 79 OT- Trojans were up 45-30 at halftime.
— Boston College 86, St John’s 80- Pitino isn’t happy with his team’s defense.
— Colorado 90, Miami 63- Impressive win for Pac-12’s Buffs.
— St Joe’s 74, Princeton 70- Only seven unbeaten teams left in country.
— Nebraska 77, Michigan State 70- Spartans are 4-5, 0-2 in conference games.
— Memphis 81, Texas A&M 75- Penny Hardaway’s Tigers improve to 7-2.

Quote of the Day
“These receivers can’t get out of the way of hurting the team.”
Tony Romo, talking about the Kansas City Chiefs’ WR’s

Monday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s basketball team is known as the Anteaters.

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; they lost to Kansas City in that series.

**********************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday​

Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25
— Mayfield threw 11-yard TD pass with 0:31 left for winning score.
— For the game, Mayfield was 14-29/144 passing, but with two TD’s.
— Last four games, opponents were 14-51 on third down.
— Tampa is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last play of game, Falcon WR was tackled on 3-yard line.
— Atlanta outgained the Bucs 434-290, but still lost.
— Falcons lost four of their last six games.
— under Smith, Falcons are 2-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Bears 28, Lions 13
— Lions’ last 2 drives of first half: 20 plays, 119 yards, 13 points.
— Lions in second half: 31 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— Last four games, Detroit is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10)
— In their last five games, Detroit has given up 29.8 ppg.
— Bears held to Detroit to 3.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Chicago outscored the Lions 18-0 in second half.
— Last five games, Bears ran ball for 144.4 yards/game.
— Chicago is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.

Bengals 34, Colts 14
— Cincinnati averaged 11.0 yards per pass play.
— Bengals are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win
— Cincinnati is 17-10-2 ATS in last 29 home games.
— Bengals are 6-1 giving up 20 or less points, 1-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Colts scored on a pick-6, but had only one offensive TD.
— Bengals outscored Indianapolis 20-0 in second half.
— Colts are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 7-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.

Browns 31, Jaguars 27
— Flacco threw for 311 yards, three TD’s.
— Browns’ team total: over 9-3-1
— Browns are 9-3-2 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Flacco is 19th QB in NFL history to win 100 games.
— Jaguars’ first six drives: 24 plays, 81 yards, no points.
— Jaguars ran for only 58 yards; they had 4 turnovers (minus-1)
— Jaguar defense gave up 11 TD’s on their last 26 drives.
— since 2018, Jags are 13-23-2 ATS as a road underdog.

Saints 28, Panthers 6
— Carolina lost his last six games (2-4 ATS)
— Last nine games, Panthers were outscored 140-52 in first half.
— Young completed only 13-36 passes; the game was indoors.
— Carolina is 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS on the road this year.
— Saints won despite being outgained, 303-207.
— Saints’ three TD drives: 44-24-64 yards.
— Carolina ran ball for 204 yards; they were 8-20 on third down.
— Saints, Bucs, Falcons are all tied for 1st in NFC South, at 6-7.

Jets 30, Texans 6
— In first half, teams combined for 11 drives, 11 punts, no points.
— Jets outgained Houston, 347-135.
— Rookie QB Stroud was knocked out (concussion) late in game.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Jets in first half: 26 plays, 101 yards, five punts.
— Jets in second half: 42 plays, 247 yards, 30 points.
— Jets were 6-15 on third down, Houston 1-12.
— Opponents’ team total: under 9-4

Ravens 37, Rams 31, OT
— Wallace ran a punt back 76 yards for a walk-off TD in overtime.
— This was first time this season Ravens trailed after three quarters.
— Last six games, Baltimore scored 20 TD’s on 64 drives.
— Ravens won seven of last eight games (5-3 ATS).
— Rams forced OT with a 36-yard FG with 0:11 left in regulation.
— LA is 2-7 when it gives up 19+ points.
— Kyren Williams ran ball 25 times for 114 yards.
— Cooper Kupp caught eight passes for 115 yards and a TD.

Patriots 21, Steelers 18
— New England snapped a 5-game losing skid.
— Patriots in first half: 33 plays, 209 yards, 21 points.
— Patriots in second half: 22 plays, 69 yards, no points.
— Zappe is 3-1 as an NFL starting QB.
— Steelers lost last two games, both to teams that were 2-10.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10-18 points
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 41-16 in first half.
— Steelers are 16-21 ATS last 37 games as a home favorite.

Patriots 21, Steelers 18
— New England snapped a 5-game losing skid.
— Patriots in first half: 33 plays, 209 yards, 21 points.
— Patriots in second half: 22 plays, 69 yards, no points.
— Zappe is 3-1 as an NFL starting QB.
— Steelers lost last two games, both to teams that were 2-10.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10-18 points
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 41-16 in first half.
— Steelers are 16-21 ATS last 37 games as a home favorite.

Vikings 3, Raiders 0
— Vikings kicked 36-yard FG with 2:00 left for game’s only score.
— 4th-string QB Mullens came off bench, was 9-13/83 passing.
— Minnesota was 8-20 on 3rd down, Raiders were 3-14.
— Opponents’ team total: under 9-3-1
— Raiders lost last three games, scoring 13-17-0 points.
— Las Vegas had only 8 first downs, was outgained 231-202.
— Under is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last seven games, Las Vegas is 28-89 (31.5%) on third down.

49ers 28, Seahawks 16
— Backup QB Lock was 22-31/269 passing, with 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s.
— Seattle lost last four games, giving up 17-31-41 28.8 ppg.
— Seahawks are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 scoring less than 20.
— Seattle is 16-9-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog (4-2 TY).
— 49ers are 5-0 since their bye (3-2 ATS) with all five wins by 12+ points. — McCaffrey ran ball 16 times for 145 yards.
— Last three games, SF ran ball for 169-146-173 yards.
— 49ers were 6-11 on third down, Seattle 2-11.

Broncos 24, Chargers 7
— Denver’s first TD came on a 3-yard drive after an INT.
— Denver was 8-17 on third down, Chargers 0-12 (1-6 on 4th down)
— Broncos are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
— Denver is 18-14-1 ATS last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Chargers QB Herbert broke right index finger, is probably OFY.
— Chargers got stopped on downs on Denver 7-yard line on their 2nd drive.
— Bolts are 3-6 since their bye week.
— Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Charger games.

Bills 20, Chiefs 17
— Buffalo scored TD’s on two of its first three drives.
— Bills are 9-3-2 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 7-0 giving up 20 or less points, 0-6 giving up more than 20.
— KC appeared to take lead late in game, but TD was nullified by Chiefs’ WR lining up offsides
— Chiefs are 2-4 in their last six games, after a 6-1 start.
— Kansas City team total: under 10-3
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Cowboys 33, Eagles 13
— Last two weeks, Eagles lost 42-19/33-13.
— Last four games, Eagles were outscored 72-26 in first half.
— Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to Dallas.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Dallas in 1st half: 4 drives- 43 plays, 262 yards, 24 points.
— Dallas was 9-16 on third down, Philly 4-9.
— Dallas won/covered seven of its last eight games.
— Cowboys are 16-6 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite (6-1 TY)

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chargers @ Las Vegas (-3)
— Vikings @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
— Steelers @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
— Broncos @ Detroit (-5)
— Jets @ Miami (-10.5)
— Falcons (-3) @ Carolina

Quote of the Day
“This is the best decision for me and my future. It was my lifelong dream to play quarterback at North Carolina, and I get a chance to check off another dream and play quarterback in the NFL.”
North Carolina QB Drake Maye, who is skipping his college team’s bowl game

Tuesday’s quiz
What team won the first two Super Bowls?

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s basketball team is known as the Anteaters.

**************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Giants 24, Packers 22
Giants drove 57 yards, kicked game-winning 37-yard FG with 0:02 left.
Giants won their last three games, all as an underdog.
Giants gained 367 total yards, their most since Week 2.
Last nine games, Giants are +14 in turnovers.
Last five games, Green Bay gave up 170.4 rushing yards/game.
Packers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Right now, there are five teams tied for the last playoff slot in NFC.

— Titans 28, Dolphins 27
Dolphins led 27-13 with 3:00 left in the game.
Titans then scored two TD’s in 0:53 span, on drives of 75-61 yards.
Titans are minus-7 in turnovers (9-16) so far this season.
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-3
Miami’s first TD was an awful pick-6 by Levis.
Dolphins’ two offensive TD’s were on short drives of 7-12 yards.
Miami is 2-4 when it scores less than 31 points.
Right now, Miami is #2-seed in AFC, leading AFC East by two games.

— I’m a fan of these Monday NFL doubleheaders, think they’re preferable to Thursday night NFL games- football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest, but Thursday games must bring in major TV $$$, and $$$ always wins out.

— We mentioned how Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700M contract last week; well it turns out, $680M of that money will be paid in deferred payments from 2034-43, lowering the Dodgers’ payroll and potential tax burden right now.
Ohtani makes around $40M a year in endorsements, so he doesn’t need the $$$ right now, and deferring the payments makes it easier for the Dodgers to assemble a winning team next year.

— By way of comparison, according to FanGraphs, Oakland A’s total payroll last season was a paltry $58,505,484, meaning Ohtani is going to make more $$$ than the whole Oakland team made last season. Awesome.
Would be kind of funny if after all this talk about Ohtani, the Angels made the playoffs in 2024, since they never made the playoffs with Ohtani.

— Pacers 131, Pistons 123- Detroit has lost 20 games in a row; they’re 6-14 against the spread in those 20 losses.

— Pet Peeve of the Day- At least three QB’s with NFL aspirations are skipping their teams bowl games: USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman.
Williams/Hartman transferred to their current school, are now skipping out on them too, so the word “loyalty” is apparently an anachronism now.

— Word of the Day: Anachronism- a person, thing, or idea that exists outside of its time in history, Something that is conspicuously old-fashioned.

— College quarterbacks on the move:
Baylor QB Blake Shapen transfers to Mississippi State.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel bolts to Oregon.
North Texas QB Chandler Rogers moves on to California.
Michigan State QB Sam Leavitt transfers to Arizona State.
Boise State QB Taylor Green jumps from Boise State to Arkansas.

— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder is off to a fast 15-7 start; their last winning season was four years ago, so they appear to be a franchise on the rise.
Here’s the thing: over the next seven years, Oklahoma City has 37 draft picks!!!! What the hell will they do with all of them? Teams only have 15 guys on their roster; if you have a good team, your roster will be pretty well set. Will be interesting to see how they handle all that.

— There are seven unbeaten teams left in college basketball.

— Troy State football coach Jon Sumrall is moving on to Tulane; Trojans are 11-2 this season, are playing Duke in the Birmingham Bowl, but their coach is moving up the financial ladder. Tulane coach Willie Fritz has bolted to the Houston Cougars.

— Vikings’ 3-0 win in Las Vegas Sunday was the 7th NFL game in the Super Bowl era to end 3-0, but this game was indoors- the others were all played in cruddy weather.

— By my count, 54 different quarterbacks have started an NFL game this season, and that count will rise this weekend, with 3-4 more teams likely to start a new QB, due to injuries.

— Major league pitcher Marco Gonzales had a weird week last week:
Last Sunday, he got traded from Seattle to Atlanta.
Two days later, he got dealt to Pittsburgh.
Good news is that he’s probably the Pirates’ #2 starter.
More good news, he’s going to make $12M in 2024.
Bad news is…….well, he’s on the Pirates instead of a good team.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 18

Famous Toastery Bowl (Charlotte)
Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion
Western Kentucky (7-5)
— WKU won three of its last four games.
— WKU is 5-0 when it scores 30+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— WKU gained 400+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Hilltoppers are +7 in turnovers; last two years, were +10/+11.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 56 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 14 games LY, threw for 4,744 yards, 40 TD’s.
— WKU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
— WKU is 3-4 ATS TY in games with a single digit spread.
— under Helton, WKU is 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Hilltoppers are 3-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— WKU has been to a bowl the last four years (3-1)


Old Dominion (6-6)
— ODU won last two games 20-17/25-24 to become bowl eligible.
— Monarchs are 6-4 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— ODU is 1-6 when it allows 27+ points, 5-0 when it allows less than 27.
— Old Dominion was favored in only 2 of 11 I-A games this season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB was previously a backup at I-AA Fordham.
— First five games, ODU was minus-6 turnovers; last seven games, they were +6
— under Rahne, ODU is 3-3-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Old Dominion is 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in bowl games (2017, 2021)


— Hilltoppers won six of last seven series games (5-2 ATS).
— Last meeting was a 43-20 WKU win at Old Dominion, two years ago.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-8 ATS vs C-USA opponents.


December 19

Frisco Bowl
Texas-San Antonio vs Marshall
Texas-San Antonio (8-4)
— UTSA won seven of its last seven games, after a 1-3 start.
— Roadrunners lost AAC title game 29-16 at Tulane.
— Roadrunners scored 34+ points in seven of their eight wins.
— UTSA is 1-4 when they score less than 34 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 42 games.
— UTSA is 3-2 ATS as a double digit favorite TY.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 18-16-1 ATS as a favorite.
— UTSA is minus-3 in turnovers TY (+22 from 2020-22)
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Roadrunners went 0-3 in bowls the last three years.
— UTSA (+3) lost this bowl 38-24 two years ago.


Marshall (6-6)
— Marshall lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— In its last four losses, Marshall was outscored 113-24.
— Thundering Herd scored 31+ points in four of six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started seven games last year.
— Marshall is 4-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last five games, Marshall is minus-10 in turnovers.
— Thundering Herd is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
— under is 4-2 in Marshall’s last six games.
— Last five years, Marshall went 2-3 in bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met since 2018.
— Marshall won two of three meetings (under 3-0)
— Last seven years, favorites are 4-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 35+ points in seven of eight Frisco Bowls.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-8 ATS vs C-USA opponents.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 18

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Old Dominion
Western Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Old Dominion
Old Dominion
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games when playing Western Kentucky


December 19

Texas-San Antonio @ Marshall
Texas-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas-San Antonio's last 7 games
Marshall
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marshall's last 6 games
Marshall is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chiefs (-9.5) @ New England
— 49ers (-13.5) @ Arizona
— Commanders @ Rams (-6.5)
— Cowboys @ Buffalo (-2.5)
— Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville
— Eagles (-4) @ Seattle

Quote of the Day
“It’s an honor to be who we are.”
Joseph Campbell

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have started only 3 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and who else?
Hint: He is still in the NFL, as a backup QB

Tuesday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls, beating Chiefs/Raiders.

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

*******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..​

— Be careful when handicapping college football bowl games; players are opting out of bowls to avoid injury/get ready for the NFL Draft. There have also been a few coaching changes involved with bowl teams.
This is from Brad Powers; teams with most starters opting out of bowls:
11- Texas A&M, Oregon State (both head coaches are gone)
10- James Madison (head coach bolted)
9- North Carolina, Notre Dame (both QB’s bolted)
7- Miami, Kansas State
6- Clemson, Duke (Duke’s QB/HC both bolted)
5- Ohio U, Western Kentucky

— Our write-ups for the first eight bowl games are posted on the College Football page.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard bolted to Notre Dame this week; the Fighting Irish are now like those rich baseball teams who poach the best players off less wealthy teams- they’re just going to buy a veteran QB every year.

— If you wager on season-long over/under win totals, the LA Chargers clinched their under bet again this year, 5th year in a row they came in under their win total. Not good.

— I mentioned couple weeks ago how the Arizona Cardinals lost the field position battle in their first 12 games, then of course they went out and won field position by 13 yards in their win at Pittsburgh in Week 13. You win field position by 10+ yards, you generally win the game.
Thru Week 13, NFL teams who won field position by 10+ yards were 51-3 in those games.

— San Francisco Giants signed Korean OF Jung Hoo Lee to a 6-year, $113M contract; he played the last seven years for the Kiwoom Heroes, hitting .340- he was the KBO’s MVP in 2022. He is 25 years old; his father was also an MVP in the KBO.

— Mets’ IF Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL Sunday while playing in the Dominican Winter League; he hit .248 in 26 games as a rookie for the Mets this past year.

— Kansas City Royals are signing P Seth Lugo to a 3-year, $45M deal; he was 8-7, 3.57 in 26 starts for San Diego last year, his first season since 2017 as a starter.

— RIP to Vic Davalillo, who passed away this week in Venezuela. Davalillo played 16 years in the major leagues, winning World Series rings with the Pirates (’71), A’s (’73). He hit .279 in his career, and made the All-Star Game in 1965 for Cleveland.
An outfielder, Davalillo played for six different teams over three decades. RIP, sir.

— Word of the Day: Ambidextrous- a person who can use their right/left hands equally well.

College basketball knowledge………
— Some of the teams playing the fastest tempo in America:
3- Samford
4- Western Kentucky
5- Arizona
6- Tulane
Some of the teams playing the slowest tempo in America:
362- Towson
361- Virginia
360- Middle Tennessee
359- St Thomas

— Teams turning the ball over the most:
362- Stephen F Austin 25.2% of time
360- Siena 24.9%
359- Sacramento State 24.5%
358- Wyoming 23.8%

Teams turning the ball over the least:
2- Richmond 11.7%
3- Kentucky 11.9%
4- Northwestern 12.0%
5- Denver 12.8%

— Teams with best shooting %age inside the arc:
1- UConn 64.2%
2- Tulane 63.5%
3- Creighton 62.7%
4- Cornell 62.3%

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the arc:
43.4%- Creighton
42.7%- St Joe’s
42.2%- Georgia Southern
41.3%- Cal-Riverside

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the foul line:
28.2%- Grand Canyon
27.9%- Tulane
26.8%- Maryland
26.8%- Nevada

— Teams whose subs play the most minutes:
Samford
Vanderbilt
Stephen F Austin
Auburn
Teams whose subs play the least minutes:
Princeton
West Virginia
Oral Roberts
Southern Mississippi

— Teams with best continuity:
Columbia
Drexel
Marquette
Florida Atlantic
Teams with least continuity:
New Mexico State
Iona
Utah State
Idaho

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College hoop teams who have played the easiest schedules so far:
— TCU
— Samford
— Cal-Northridge
— Longwood
— Georgetown
— Presbyterian

Quote of the Day
“When you watch the film, penalties in critical moments, turnovers in critical moments. Yeah, it’s frustrating, but at the same time, we know a lot of it is self-inflicted, and we know that, moving forward, it can be fixed and we have the guys to be able to get it fixed.”
Chiefs’ TE Travis Kelce

Thursday’s quiz
What actress played Mrs Griswold (Chevy Chase’s wife) in the Vacation movies?

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have started only 3 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor. Easton Stick becomes the 4th Thursday night.

Tuesday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls, beating Chiefs/Raiders.

************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..​

— There was a cool moment Tuesday night that unfortunately didn’t get onto TV until about 1:15am, during the NBA postgame show on TNT.
TNT’s Ernie Johnson was inducted into the Sports Broadcasting Hall of Fame in New York City on Tuesday night; when you listened to the people on TNT talk about him, with a universal reverence from people who aren’t usually that way, it was touching.
Ernie Johnson is so well-loved/respected that Shaquille O’Neal, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley showed up at the award ceremony unannounced, to surprise their partner on TNT.
All the people working on TNT that night were wearing t-shirts with Ernie’s picture on it; in an era where people can’t agree about anything, it was great to see a person honored who everyone loves/respects.

— In the NFL, “explosive plays” are defined by:
Running plays of 10+ yards
Passing plays of 20+ yards
Teams that have allowed the fewest explosive plays this season:
54- Vikings
57- Dolphins
59- Patriots
60- Bears, 49ers

Teams that have allowed the most explosive plays this season:
96- Bengals
85- Giants
84- Packers
83- Broncos

— There is a fine line between success/failure in the NFL:
Best records in games decided by 8 or fewer points:
Eagles 7-1
Steelers 7-2
Browns, Colts 5-2
Lions, Giants 4-2

Worst records in games decided by 8 or fewer points:
Panthers 1-5
Patriots 3-7
Cardinals 1-4
Bills 3-6

— NFL teams who won the field position battle by 10+ yards are 51-3 this season; the three teams that lost:
Vikings, Week 3 vs Chargers
Giants, Week 5 at Miami
Buccaneers, Week 9 at Houston

— NFL announced that there will be a regular season game in Brazil next season, the NFL’s first game in South America. It is likely that the Miami Dolphins will be one of the teams playing; it is likely the game would be in Week 1 next season.
Dolphins have exclusive Brazilian marketing rights for NFL stuff, which is why it is likely that they’ll be one of the teams playing in the game.

— Giants’ QB Tommy DeVito is making $44,000/game this season; he’ll make $915,000 next year, while the Giants pay injured starting QB Daniel Jones $40M a year. Awkward.

— Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall bolted to NC State, after starting for the Chanticleers for the last four seasons.

— Word of the Day: Mercenary- a person primarily concerned with making money at the expense of ethics.

— Shohei Ohtani will make $2M a year for the next ten years, then $68M a year from 2034-43; meanwhile, Mookie Betts also has a ton of deferments in his contract:
2033-37- $8M/year
2038-39- $10M/year
2040-44- $11M/year
In 2043, Betts/Ohtani will bank a combined $79M; Betts will be 50 years old, Ohtani 48.

— Do the agents for these players have their fees deferred too? If Ohtani’s agent is banking 3%, which is normal, his take is $21M, but he’ll only see $600,000 of it in the next ten years.

— Ohtani doesn’t have an opt out, by the way, unless president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman or controlling owner Mark Walter loses his role with the Dodgers. Then he would.

— MLB Network needs to show more baseball games during the off-season; what else is there? Promote your sport; show Ohtani, show Trout, show some Japanese games with this Yamamoto guy pitching. Stop with the goofy talk shows, unless they’re talking about free agent signings or trades- anything else is a waste of time.

— UNLV 79, Creighton 64
Bluejays shot 8-29 on the arc; they were shooting 40.3% coming into the game.
Keylan Boone scored 10 points off the bench in his UNLV debut; his brother Kalib scored 25 points, with 7 rebounds, 4 steals. UNLV had great energy in this game.

— Chicago State 75, Northwestern 73:
Huge win for the 4-9 Cougars, who had been 0-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 29-16-9 points.
Northwestern led this game by 10 points in first half; how do you beat Purdue and lose this game?
Chicago State’s three previous wins were over teams #336-347-244

— Arkansas State 75, Louisville 63:
Louisville was 4-28 last year, is 4-6 this year; hard to believe that Kenny Payne will still be the Louisville coach next season.
Arkansas State is 4-7; they shot 5-25 on the arc and still won.

— RIP to actor Andre Braugher, who passed away this week at age 61; I remember him from his role as Detective Frank Pembleton on Homicide back in the 90’s- he was great in that show, which was set in Baltimore. RIP, sir.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
All-time passing yardage leaders for the Raiders:
35,222— Derek Carr
19,078— Ken Stabler
17,585— Rich Gannon
16,655— Daryle Lamonica
12,665— Jim Plunkett
11,760— Marc Wilson

Quote of the Day
“You don’t lose if you get knocked down. You lose if you stay down.”

Muhammad Ali
Friday’s quiz
What is the only division in the NFL where all four teams have won a Super Bowl?

Thursday’s quiz
Beverly D’Angelo played Mrs Griswold (Chevy Chase’s wife) in the Vacation movies.

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have now started only 4 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert, Tyrod Taylor and Easton Stick.

*****************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

Its funny the things you remember sometimes………

— Long time ago, 41 years ago, I lived in an apartment in downtown Albany with six friends of mine; I had just graduated college and was working midnight-to-8am for NY State- the other six guys were still in college, at UAlbany.
At one point during the year, two pieces of paper were taped on the dining room wall; one was the NBA’s “1 Club”, NBA players who scored one point in a game. Doesn’t happen that much; for example, this past Wednesday night, in nine NBA games, two guys scored one point; Cam Payne and Oscar Tshiebwe (it was Tshiebwe’s first-ever NBA point).

— The other list was called “Square Pegs”, named after an obscure TV show that was on for only one season back then. Square Pegs were people who did something unusual/funny; the seven of us would vote on whether a person was a Square Peg or not.
This is 41 years ago, I can’t remember all the details, but one of the first Square Pegs was a guy named Curtis Sharp, who hit the lottery for $5M, back when they first started the lottery.
It was a big deal; they had a news conference, and Curtis Sharp shows up, with his wife AND his girlfriend!!!! The three of them were yukking it up, they were all rich, and Curtis Sharp was one of the first Square Pegs.
I’m trying to think of who would be a Square Peg today; we didn’t vote that many people in, but I’m thinking that Tommy DeVito’s agent would definitely get on the list.

— Random Square Pegs trivia; on the actual TV show, Sarah Jessica Parker and Jami Gertz were two of the stars, while Bill Murray, Tony Dow (Wally Cleaver on Leave it to Beaver) and Jerry Seinfeld were all in an episode or two.

— Raiders 63, Chargers 21
Chargers trailed this game 42-0 at halftime, a dismal performance.
Bolts are 0-5 ATS in last five games as an underdog.
LA is 1-7 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 AFC West road games.
Raiders are first team since 1950 to have 8 different players score a TD.
Raiders scored two defensive TD’s in the second half.
Las Vegas is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite (4-1 TY)
Only 2nd time all season Raiders went over their team total.
This is the same Raiders team that lost 3-0 at home last week.

— By the time you read this, Brandon Staley might not be the Chargers’ coach anymore; this was as putrid a performance as I’ve seen an NFL team have.

— RIP to basketball star George McGinnis, who passed away this week at age 73; he was a 3-time ABA All-Star and a 3-time NBA All-Star who was inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame in 2017. He is one of four Indiana Pacers to have his number retired.
A sturdy power forward, McGinnis scored over 17,000 points in his pro career; he led the ABA in free throws taken three years in a row, grabbed 10+ rebounds/game seven years in a row.
RIP, sir.

— Word of the Day: Debacle- a complete failure.

— College football bowl games start Saturday; here is some quick knowledge on how the conferences break down, bowl-wise:
AAC- six teams in bowls, four of them are underdogs.
ACC- 11 teams in bowls, six of them are underdogs.
Big X- nine teams in bowls, seven of them are favored.
Big 14- nine teams in bowls, six of them are underdogs.
Conference USA- four teams in bowls, 2 favorites, 2 underdogs.
MAC- six teams in bowls, all of them are underdogs.
Mountain West- seven teams in bowls, four of them are underdogs.
Pac-12- eight teams in bowls, four of them are underdogs.
SEC- nine teams in bowls, six of them are favored.
Sun Belt- 12 teams in bowls (12!!!!), eight of them are favored.

— Dodgers acquired P Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay; Glasnow has to sign a contract extension for the deal to go thru, but that is expected to happen.
In return, Tampa Bay gets P Ryan Pepiot and a minor league outfielder.
Glasnow has thrown 100+ innings in only two of his eight major league seasons; he threw a career high 120 IP last year, going 10-7, 3.53.

— Detroit Tigers signed P Jack Flaherty to a one-year, $14M contract; he was 8-9, 4.99 in 27 starts last year, for the Cardinals/Orioles.
Texas Rangers signed P Tyler Mahle for two years, $22M; Mahle had Tommy John surgery last May, won’t be ready to pitch until the middle part of the ’24 season.

— Portland Trailblazers were favored over Utah Thursday, the first time this season they’ve been favored, the last NBA team to be favored in a game this season. Celtics are the only team that hasn’t been an underdog this season.

— NFL teams who have gone under the total the most this season:
Vikings and Steelers have both gone under 10 of 13 games; Raiders/Chargers had also gone under in 10 of 13 games, until Thursday night’s debacle.

— There are six teams tied for the last playoff spot in the AFC, with 7-6 records; there might be tie-breakers involved by the time we get to Week 18.

— Cleveland Browns signed QB Joe Flacco to a contract for the rest of this season, getting him off the taxi squad; Flacco has thrown for 565 yards in two games, with 5 TDs, 2 INT’s.
Browns’ kicker Dustin Hopkins is 8-for-8 this season on field goals of 50+ yards.

— Remember last week, when there was a private jet flying from Anaheim to Toronto, and people thought Shohei Ohtani was flying to Canada to sign with the Blue Jays?
Turns out it was Canadian businessman Robert Herjavec on that jet; apparently he is on that Shark Tank TV show with Mark Cuban. Have never seen the show, but he must be really rich, if he rents private planes.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
All-time passing yardage leaders for the Dallas Cowboys:
34,183— Tony Romo
32,942— Troy Aikman
28,448— Dak Prescott
22,700— Roger Staubach
21,959— Danny White
17,199— Don Meredith

Quote of the Day
“These decisions are never easy, nor are they something I take lightly — especially when you consider the number of people they impact. We are clearly not where we expect to be, however, and we need new vision. Doing nothing in the name of continuity was not a risk I was willing to take. Our fans have stood strong through so many ups and downs and close games. They deserve more. Frankly, they’ve earned more.”
Chargers owner Dean Spanos, after firing his coach/GM Friday

Saturday’s quiz
Which current NBA franchise used to be the Seattle SuperSonics?

Friday’s quiz
NFC East is the only division in the NFL where all four teams have won a Super Bowl.

Thursday’s quiz
Beverly D’Angelo played Mrs Griswold (Chevy Chase’s wife) in the Vacation movies.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: NHL trends…….​

NHL trends (thru Thursday, Dec. 14)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 10-18
— 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.
— lost last six road tilts.
— over 6-0 last six home games

Arizona 13-13-2
— lost last three games, by combined 14-7.
— 8-5 at home, 5-8-2 on road.
— 0-3 on first night of back/back.

Boston 18-5-4
— 9-4-4 last 17 games, after a 9-1 start
— 10-2-1 at home, 8-3-3 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games

Buffalo 12-15-3
— 1-11 after a win, 10-6 after a loss
— 6-7 at home, 6-8-2 on road.
— under 8-3 last 11 home games

Calgary 11-14-5
— lost six of their last seven games
— 6-6-1 at home, 5-8-4 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten home games

Carolina 16-12-1
— won last two games, after an 0-4 skid.
— 8-2-1 at home, 8-10 on road.
— last five home games went over.

Chicago 9-19-1
— lost four of their last five games
— 5-7-1 at home, 4-12 on road.
— under 6-3 last nine games

Colorado 18-9-2
— lost five of last eight games
— 11-4 at home, 7-5-2 on road.
— over 3-1 last four home games

Columbus 10-16-5
— lost four of their last six games
— 7-8-2 at home, 3-8-3 on road.
— over 5-0 last five games

Dallas 16-8-3
— 5-7 in their last 12 games
— 7-5-1 at home, 9-3-2 on road.
— over 15-6 last 21 games

Detroit 15-10-4
— lost four of their last five games
— 8-5-3 at home, 7-5-1 on road.
— over 6-1 last seven games

Edmonton 13-13-1
— won eight of last nine games.
— 9-5-1 at home, 4-8 on road.
— over 10-4 last 14 games

Florida 17-10-2
— 5-6 in their last eleven games.
— 9-4 at home, 8-6-2 on road.
— under 7-1 last eight road games

Los Angeles 16-6-4
— lost last three games, scoring five goals.
— 5-5-3 at home, 11-1-1 on road.
— under 14-4 last 18 games

Minnesota 11-12-4
— won four of last five games.
— 6-4-2 at home, 5-8-2 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games

Montreal 12-13-4
— 4-5 in their last nine games.
— 6-9-2 at home, 6-4-2 on road.
— under 9-1 last ten games

Nashville 16-13
— won five of last six games.
— 10-6 at home, 6-7 on road.
— under 4-0 last four games

New Jersey 15-11-1
— won seven of last nine games
— 6-6-1 at home, 9-5 on road.
— under 4-0 last four games

NY Islanders 14-7-7
— won six of last seven games.
— 8-3-5 at home, 6-4-2 on road.
— over 7-1 last eight games

NY Rangers 19-7-1
— lost three of last four games
— 9-3 at home, 10-4-1 on road.
— 6-1 after a loss this season.
— over 4-2 last six games

Ottawa 11-13
— lost six of their last nine games.
— 8-9 at home, 3-4 on road.
— 9-2 scoring 4+ goals, 2-11 scoring less than 4.

Philadelphia 16-10-3
— won five of their last six games.
— 7-6-1 at home, 9-4-2 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight road games

Pittsburgh 13-12-3
— won last two games, after a 2-7 skid.
— 6-6-1 at home, 7-6-2 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven road games

St Louis 14-14-1
— 4-9 after a win, 10-5 after a loss.
— 8-5 at home, 6-9-1 on road.
— under 5-1 last six road games

San Jose 9-19-3
— 6-3 last nine games
— 6-6-2 at home, 3-11-1 on road.
— over 5-1 last six games

Seattle 10-14-7
— won last two games, after an 0-8 skid.
— 6-8-2 at home, 4-6-5 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games

Tampa Bay 14-12-5
— won four of last six games.
— 8-3-3 at home, 6-9-2 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games

Toronto 15-6-6
— 5-3 in their last eight games.
— 8-4-2 at home, 7-2-4 on road.
— over 13-4 last 17 games
— 13-2 scoring 4+ goals, 2-10 scoring 3 or less.

Vancouver 20-9-1
— won last four games, by combined 14-4.
— 12-3-1 at home, 8-6 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight home games

Vegas 20-5-5
— won six of last seven games.
— 11-2-2 at home, 9-3-3 on road.
— over 4-0 last four games

Washington 14-8-4
— lost four of last six games.
— 8-4-2 at home, 6-4-2 on road.
— under 10-4 on road

Winnipeg 17-9-2
— won five of last six games, giving up ten goals.
— 8-5-1 at home, 9-4-1 on road.
— under 4-0 last four home games

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
GASO at OHIO	11:00 AM	OHIO +2.5 U 49.0	+500 +500
JSU at ULL	02:15 PM	JSU -3.0 U 57.5	+500 +500
M-OH at APP	03:30 PM	M-OH +6.5 O 40.5	+500 +500
NMSU at FRES	05:45 PM	NMSU -3.5 U 52.0	+500 +500
UCLA at BSU	07:30 PM	BSU +5.5 O 47.0	+500 +500
CAL at TTU	09:15 PM	TTU -3.5 O 57.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL RECORD:

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/16/2023	5-6-1	45.83%	-800	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1.....................55.55.....................+ 3.00

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:

— Bucks 146, Pistons 114- Detroit has lost 23 games in a row.
— Heat 118, Bulls 116- Jimmy Butler hit the game-winner at the buzzer.
— Kings 125, Jazz 104- Keegan Murray made 12 of 15 3-point shots!!!
— Warriors 124, Nets 120- Steph Curry was 6-8 on arc, scored 37 points.
— Thunder 118, Nuggets 117- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hit the game-winner.
— Mavericks 131, Trailblazers 120- Luka Doncic scored 40, had a triple-double.

Quote of the Day
“I feel like I need a beer.”
Bengals QB Jake Browning, after Saturday’s overtime win

Sunday’s quiz
Who has the most wins as a head coach for the Detroit Lions?

Saturday’s quiz
NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder used to be the Seattle SuperSonics.

Friday’s quiz
NFC East is the only division in the NFL where all four teams have won a Super Bowl.

*****************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy sports Saturday​

Bengals 27, Vikings 24 OT
Minnesota led 17-3 after the third quarter.
WR Addison caught six passes for 111 yards, two TD’s.
Minnesota is 6-7 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)
Mullens is the 56th QB to start an NFL game this season.
Bengals’ first five drives: 32 plays, 116 yards, 3 points.
Bengals’ last five drives: 38 plays, 263 yards, 24 points.
Bengals won their last three games, scoring 34-34-28 points.
Five of Cincinnati’s last six games went over the total.

Colts 30, Steelers 13
Pittsburgh led 13-0 early in second quarter.
Steelers’ second TD came on a 1-yard drive after a blocked punt.
After that TD, rest of game, Steelers ran 37 plays for 161 yards, no points.
Steelers lost four of their last five games, scoring 13.4 ppg.
Colts after the blocked punt: 57 plays, 340 yards, 30 points.
Indianapolis won/covered five of its last six games.
In its last six games, Indy is +9 in turnovers (13-4)
Colts’ team total: over 10-3-1.

Lions 42, Broncos 17
Goff was 24-34/278 passing, with five TD passes.
Lions’ first three drives: 14 plays, 47 yards, 3 punts.
Lions’ next five drives: 39 plays, 372 yards, 35 points.
Detroit is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
Lions outgained Denver, 448-287.
Last five weeks, Denver converted only 21-67 on third down.
Broncos are 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
Broncos are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.

— Purdue 92, Arizona 84
Boilermakers had three guys score 22+ points.
Purdue shot 61% inside arc, 10-24 on the arc.
First loss for 8-1 Arizona, which has three top 25 wins.

— Kentucky 87, North Carolina 83
Dillingham led Kentucky with 17 points; he didn’t start.
Kentucky had 18 offensive rebounds on 44 missed shots.
North Carolina led once; 72-71 with 5:15 left in game.

— Memphis 79, Clemson 77
First loss for 9-1 Clemson, which led 39-32 at half.
Teams combined to shoot 11-49 on the arc.
Memphis was +9 in turnovers (15-6).

— Ohio State 67, UCLA 60
Brickfest!!! Teams combined to shoot 2-24 on the arc.
Ohio State shot 58.5% inside the arc.
Buckeyes outscored UCLA 30-19 over last 10:47 of game.

— Kansas 75, Indiana 71
Hoosiers led by 13 early in second half.
Kansas played four subs a total of only 24 minutes.
McCullar was only 3-11 from floor, but 13-16 on foul line.

— Creighton 85, Alabama 82
Alabama shot 58% inside arc, only 4-22 on arc.
Crimson Tide led by 6 early in second half.
Creighton outscored Alabama 21-8 on the foul line.

— Saint Louis 75, Louisiana Tech 74
Tech is first team since 2009 to have ZERO TURNOVERS in a game.
But they lost; Billikens outscored Tech 11-4 over final 0:36 of the game.
Saint Louis made 10-18 3-point shots.

— Word of the Day: Smorgasbord- Saturday offered a wide variety of games on TV, starting at 11am, and running for the next 13-14 hours, a sports smorgasbord.

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio U 41, Georgia Southern 21
Bobcats led 20-0 at halftime.
Ohio U was 10-15 on third down, Eagles 5-12
Georgia Southern loses its last five games, after a 6-2 start.

New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State 34, Louisiana 31 OT
Gamecocks win a bowl in their first season on the I-A level.
Louisiana loses, despite scoring three defensive touchdowns.
Jax State was minus-4 in turnovers, but ran ball 74 times for 290 yards.

Cure Bowl: Appalachian State 13, Miami OH 9
App State led 6-3 at halftime, on a rainy day in Orlando.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
App State outgained Miami, 388-227

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State 37, New Mexico State 10
Bulldogs outgained New Mexico State 500-200.
Fresno converted 8-13 third down plays.
Fresno QB Keene was 31-39/380 passing, with 3 TD passes.

Los Angeles Bowl: UCLA 35, Boise State 22
Bruins outscored Boise State 21-0 in third quarter.
QB Garbers came off bench, was 9-12/152 passing, with two TD’s.
UCLA ran ball for 230 yards, outgained Broncos 510-332.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 21

Boca Raton Bowl
Syracuse (-3) vs South Florida
Syracuse (6-6)
— Syracuse lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Orangemen already fired their coach.
— Syracuse is 6-0 when it scores 28+ points, 0-6 when it doesn’t.
— Syracuse gained 399+ TY in its wins, 286 or less in its losses.
— under Babers, Syracuse is 12-10 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— Syracuse is 2-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Orangemen are 3-5 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— four of last five Syracuse games went over the total.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).
— ACC favorites are 13-10 ATS out of conference this season.


South Florida (6-6)
— USF gave up 41+ points in five of its six losses.
— Bulls are 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— new HC Golesh was OC at Tennessee last two years.
— USF gave up 465+ TY in five of its last six losses.
— Bulls threw for 319+ yards in three of last four games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB has completed 64.1% of passes (23 TD’s, 11 INT)
— Five of USF’s six losses were by 14+ points.
— Bulls have a minus-7 turnover ratio this year.
— over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— USF hasn’t been to a bowl since 2018.
— Bulls are 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in their last five bowls
— AAC underdogs are 10-18 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— Underdogs covered this bowl three of last four years.
— since 2015, AAC teams are 3-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in the nine Boca Raton Bowls: 66.4.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 10-1 ATS vs AAC opponents.


December 22

Gasparilla Bowl
Georgia Tech vs Central Florida (-4.5) (@ Tampa, FL)
Georgia Tech (6-6)
— Tech is 5-0 when it allows less than 31 points, 1-6 when they give up 31+.
— GT was 5-7 last year, despite being +11 in turnovers.
— GT is 6-6 this year, they’re +3 in turnovers.
— Tech ran for 200+ yards in five of last six games.
— Last six games, Tech gave up 237 rushing yards/game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB completed 61.9% of passes (26 TD’s, 15 INTs)
— Tech is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Tech is 4-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— over is 8-3 in their I-A games this season.
— Georgia Tech hasn’t had a winning season since 2018.
— Yellow Jackets haven’t gone bowling since 2018; last bowl win? 2016.
— ACC underdogs are 7-11 ATS out of inference this year.


UCF (6-6)
— UCF won three of its last four games, after an 0-5 skid.
— UCF is 6-1 when it gives up less than 31 points.
— Knights 442+ yards in six of last eight games.
— Last four games, UCF was +6 in turnovers.
— UCF is 2-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line- good depth
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— senior QB Plumlee has 22 starts between UCF/Ole Miss.
— Knights are 1-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Underdogs covered nine of their last ten games.
— in his career, Malzahn is 3-6 SU in bowl games.
— UCF’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Central Florida is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
— UCF won this bowl two of last three years.
— Big X favorites are 10-13 ATS out of conference.


— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven Gasparilla Bowls.
— since 2019, Big X teams are 9-4 ATS vs ACC teams.
— Average total in last seven Gasparilla Bowls: 44.4.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 21

South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida
South Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Syracuse
South Florida is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Syracuse
Syracuse
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Syracuse's last 7 games when playing South Florida


December 22

Georgia Tech @ Central Florida
Georgia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games
Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Central Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Florida's last 6 games
Central Florida is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

December 18

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

December 19

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
UTSA at MRSH	09:00 PM	UTSA -12.0 O 51.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/19/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
12/16/2023	5-6-1	45.83%	-800	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS............................,7 - 4 - 1................63.63%................+ 14.00